What I see coming for the next few years.

[DeDukshyn]

Posted by Roisin (here)
Let's say that one is 99% certain the the current monetary system is going to crash BIG TIME where whatever money one has now in any shape or form will be worthless when that happens.

So let's say one instead decides to buy up supplies and goods that one can barter after the crash in order to survive? So my question is, what kind of things should one be stocking up on at this point in time to be able to barter in a market like that and still come out on top?

Absolutely. We certainly are not just suddenly "all going to die". We'll just revert to simpler systems locally and within ourselves. No one needs their systems at all. My 2 cents

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Roisin (here)
So let's say one instead decides to buy up supplies and goods that one can barter after the crash in order to survive? So my question is, what kind of things should one be stocking up on at this point in time to be able to barter in a market like that and still come out on top?

That will vary ... depending on one's situation and talents.

A gardener in northern Minnesota will have a different stockpile than a computer nerd in Texas.

In either case, variety is probably a good idea - we can't predict exactly what sequence of calamities we will face. Look for alternative ways to meet one's basic food, energy, clothing, shelter, water, etc needs. Anticipate that trade will become more local, rather than bringing in all our food, energy and stuff in containers from across some ocean. Anticipate that if you hold some savings in paper or electronic form, or as promised payments (such as a retirement fund, rental income on a property, social benefits such as Social Security or Medicare, ...) then these promises may lose purchasing power, perhaps dramatically, perhaps totally.

Get out of debt if possible. The banksters have a habit of losing your savings more often than they lose your loan papers. When push comes to shove, they will consider your mortgaged house and your car with its lien as their property, which they have a corporate fiduciary responsibility to foreclose on and repossess, to make their ends meet. Never mind that you're homeless with no wheels.

Minimize essential cash flow as well. Tally up where your money goes each month and look for ways to reduce what you have to spend to "keep going".

It is certainly the case that the promised benefits, savings and retirement funding to Americans exceeds the wealth available. We can't all have a car in every garage and a turkey in every oven, if there are substantially fewer cars, garages, turkeys and ovens than there are people.

[ThePythonicCow]

Aha - one more small light bulb just lit up for me.

Gold:

I have been following the precious metals (gold, silver and mining stocks) markets for a couple of decades now. The one newsletter that I still pay good money for is Jim Willie's Hat Trick Letter, available on his GoldenJackass.com website.

A dominant message of Jim Willie, confirmed by many other financial sites and commentators, is that gold is moving from the US to the China, Russia and the far east.

Those of us who read of the past history of gold, money, finances and power on this planet observe that such movement of gold is an indicator of the move of the main power base of the dominant powers on earth. Joseph P. Farrell documents some of this in his recent book Financial Vipers of Venice: Alchemical Money, Magical Physics, and Banking in the Middle Ages and Renaissance, as power moved from Venice through Spain, and Holland to London, then in the last century to New York and Washington.

The movement of gold out of the US (ongoing for the last couple of decades, apparently) is one more key indicator that the US is being taken down ... gold has been a powerful symbol of national dominance for thousands of years.

Drugs:

Other signs of the decline and fall of the US dominance are evident as well. Turkey plays a key role in the transport of drugs (heroin and other such opiates) from Afghanistan to Europe and the US. If and when Turkey re-aligns more with Russia, leaves NATO, closes the US air bases there and breaks that link in shipping drugs, that will be another big hit to US dominance. Currently the US drug trade is one of its main sources of off-book cash flow.

Military:

Obama is cutting the US Military budget as well. See for example Pentagon Plans to Shrink Army to Pre-World War II Level (NY Times; Feb 23, 2014)

Manufacturing:

US Manufacturing dominance, following World War II, after the US military bombed every one else's factories out of existence, was unsurpassed. Now that is long past, and the once greatest manufacturing city in the world, Detroit, Michigan, would now be an embarrassment to the typical third world nation.

These are all more signs that the US is being taken down. Behold the Decline and Fall of the American Empire.

However ... that does not mean that the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, ...) nations are the new power base of the planet's elite for the coming century.

Rather I am anticipating that the new power base will be based on global technology integration and dominance.

The Internet, world wide shipping, world wide full spectrum dominance and surveillance, and now the trial runs of Internet based money, which began with CIA employee Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto's efforts, ... these are all forming the post-national phase of human history.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Paul (here)
... these are all forming the post-national phase of human history.

If Joseph P. Farrell is right in his high octane speculations, the game is no longer nation versus nation, humans versus humans on this planet earth.

Rather the game is humans versus other intelligent species, aka aliens, many if not most of them with power bases off world.

The high technology required to compete with such beings, and now available (in black projects) from such beings, is too dangerous to be allowed open use in inter-human conflicts. Turning planet earth into another asteroid belt may defeat your enemy, but it is self-defeating as well, even for the über powerful human elite who might have been funding both sides of the conflict.

The name of the game is changing, from inter-national power struggles to inter-species power struggles.

Once the elite are confident that they have control of humanity, and all rogue nations and power groups have been eliminated or assimilated, then they can risk more open use of the extreme technology that is now only known inside black projects. Until then, physics, math, science, medicine and nutrition are being sidetracked in cul-de-sacs.

[gripreaper]

Posted by Paul (here)
The name of the game is changing, from inter-national power struggles to inter-species power struggles.

Once the elite are confident that they have control of humanity, and all rogue nations and power groups have been eliminated or assimilated, then they can risk more open use of the extreme technology that is now only known inside black projects. Until then, physics, math, science, medicine and nutrition are being sidetracked in cul-de-sacs.

Agree. The notion of "Nation States" has always just been a meme to foist on the humans, as the elite have always seen the world globally as their own private asset. To change the Nation-State meme and "sell" a new globalist meme to the populace would require some kind of outside fear based threat (from extraterrestrials) in order to justify the large military industrial complex and the hidden development of the stellar black-ops projects (for national security of course ).

They could easily sell us the idea that they "had" to keep extraterrestrial life from us and develop technology in secret because of the nature of the extraterrestrial threat, and it was done in our best interest because they "care" so much about us...blah, blah, blah...

Then, the control would remain unified under the same global debt based monetary system, the only difference being the elimination of all tangible means of exchange and going to strictly digital exchange which can be fully tracked, monitored, centralized, controlled, and manipulated.

In other words, tow the line or we turn off your chip and you can no longer buy or sell to provide for your basic needs. You will become a vagabond in society if you resist and all of your peers will know what a scumbag you are and will reject you.

And most will fall for it. My only hope is that the small remnant of souls who see this coming will be able to speak up and steer the outcome to a more favorable timeline. That would be you and me Paul.

I think the notion that power is moving away from the west to the east, and the gold is the source and movement of that power, is fallacious, and that the BRIC opposition to a One World digital system does not and will not have the traction to go up against the existing elite power structure which has been in place for millenia and is tied to extraterrestrial power.

Sure, the elite want to scale back their corporate investment in the west and balance it more to the east, but it's not about nation states. It's more about just making a business decision to retool.

[Dennis Leahy]

Posted by Paul (here)
What I see coming (unless by some intervention the dark forces dominant over human history for at least the last few millenia lose control):
...

I think your logic is solid, Paul. My emotions want to override the logic. I want the unknown, a "wildcard" to enter the equation and tip it in humanity's balance. The issue is control/kontrol (think of the "K" in MKULTRA.) That's why I have put the effort into "The Reset Button", as it would be a wildcard that interrupts the control pathways.

I'm not naive enough to believe that The Reset Button would remove all of the hidden Global Rulers' control mechanisms, but control over the public face of the US government (currently but a puppet show) would take away a lot of their overt toys and playground bullying capabilities.

Posted by Paul (here)
If Joseph P. Farrell is right in his high octane speculations, the game is no longer nation versus nation, humans versus humans on this planet earth.

Rather the game is humans versus other intelligent species, aka aliens, many if not most of them with power bases off world.

The high technology required to compete with such beings, and now available (in black projects) from such beings, is too dangerous to be allowed open use in inter-human conflicts. Turning planet earth into another asteroid belt may defeat your enemy, but it is self-defeating as well, even for the über powerful human elite who might have been funding both sides of the conflict.

The name of the game is changing, from inter-national power struggles to inter-species power struggles.

Once the elite are confident that they have control of humanity, and all rogue nations and power groups have been eliminated or assimilated, then they can risk more open use of the extreme technology that is now only known inside black projects. Until then, physics, math, science, medicine and nutrition are being sidetracked in cul-de-sacs.

I do wonder about Farrell's logic on this. It doesn't make sense to me that malevolent non-Earth species would wait on the sidelines until humanity had a big enough flyswatter to swat them. I'm guessing the alien-folk probably do NOT abide by the Marquess of Queensberry Rules. If they wanted our asses kicked, we would already have bruised asses - even the malevolent ones that supposedly live on/under Earth and/or zip around in inter-dimensional quasi-metallic Frisbees must have a use for us or we'd already be compost.

Now, it does make sense to me that human (I use that term loosely in this case) Global Controllers may very well use the false flag notion of "malevolent" alien life as an excuse to huddle together under the NWO umbrella.

Dennis

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Paul (here)
What I see coming (unless by some intervention the dark forces dominant over human history for at least the last few millenia lose control):

1. Economic collapse in the US and Europe (and many places elsewhere) for the next 2 to 4 years
2. Then serious risk of World War III between NATO and China/Russia.
3. Then New World Order economically, politically, financially, monetarily, ...

Posted by Paul (here)
The name of the game is changing, from inter-national power struggles to inter-species power struggles.

Once the elite are confident that they have control of humanity, and all rogue nations and power groups have been eliminated or assimilated, then they can risk more open use of the extreme technology that is now only known inside black projects. Until then, physics, math, science, medicine and nutrition are being sidetracked in cul-de-sacs.

Posted by gripreaper (here)
Agree. The notion of "Nation States" has always just been a meme to foist on the humans, as the elite have always seen the world globally as their own private asset. To change the Nation-State meme and "sell" a new globalist meme to the populace would require some kind of outside fear based threat (from extraterrestrials) in order to justify the large military industrial complex and the hidden development of the stellar black-ops projects (for national security of course ).

They could easily sell us the idea that they "had" to keep extraterrestrial life from us and develop technology in secret because of the nature of the extraterrestrial threat, and it was done in our best interest because they "care" so much about us...blah, blah, blah...

Aha - that's what the scenario I posted in the opening post of this thread was missing - the alien threat!

Step 2 should not be "World War III between NATO and China/Russia"

Rather Step 2 should be "Alien Invasion" (no real Aliens need apply)

Such provides, as you observe, far better motivation for world wide cooperative focus on advanced technology and military development (and suppression of any nations, people or organizations that aren't cooperating).

[Roisin]

Paul, thanks for your reply to my questions, your suggestions and your insights. This is a very informative thread and I'm going to have some of my family members and friends look over this information too as a way to prepare for what very well may coming up next. In this case, it's definitely best to err on the side of caution and do everything necessary to be prepared for any possible upcoming worse case scenario. That, for sure, is always the best approach.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Dennis Leahy (here)
I do wonder about Farrell's logic on this. It doesn't make sense to me that malevolent non-Earth species would wait on the sidelines until humanity had a big enough flyswatter to swat them. I'm guessing the alien-folk probably do NOT abide by the Marquess of Queensberry Rules. If they wanted our asses kicked, we would already have bruised asses - even the malevolent ones that supposedly live on/under Earth and/or zip around in inter-dimensional quasi-metallic Frisbees must have a use for us or we'd already be compost.

Now, it does make sense to me that human (I use that term loosely in this case) Global Controllers may very well use the false flag notion of "malevolent" alien life as an excuse to huddle together under the NWO umbrella.

Dennis

I doubt that it's the aliens who are pulling their punches ... for the reasons you offer.

Rather I expect that it's the (supposedly human) bastards in power on this planet who are gearing up for a major jail break from this prison planet ... getting ready to go kick some serious butt off planet, with us serfs manning the oars and below deck.

... not a very nice way to introduce ourselves to our neighbors.

[Carmody]

As my understanding of the situation evolved, it tended to show me that after an approximate 'IQ' of about 250 (in human terms), there is no reason to be physical, ie no reason to be in this particular 'multi-axis* integrated 2d fields.. turned to 3d holographic' expression, this bubble of an angle-view of dimensional energy expression. (*this axis appears in the 3d matrix of view, not outside of it)

That..the only reason to be here, is if a given group of individuals, loosely defined as a 'race' or group of beings of similar genetic avatar design, if that group of being utilizing their particular avatars as a viewpoint in and of existence...that this given group is locked into a spiral or non-growth aspect, and has remained animalistic. Ie, killer-eat-destroy-self types, locked into a loop of some sort. Or, they've taken a bad turn in their evolution, or, they are purposely frozen, by themselves, or someone else.

The second group, would be altruistic, and protective of others, or non-interfering in their views and acts. Both of this type are well enabled and capable of protecting themselves, otherwise they would eventually encounter the first type, and 'cease to be'.

as we get up into the (again, human terms) the higher IQ's of 120-140-160, etc, the ability to understand not just the 'human' (subjective/art/love/creative/etc) side of this matrix of reality, we can also understand the objective or mechanistic side of it. The art of manipulation of the fabric, the understanding of what it is.

That it is an information matrix, where what we call noise, thermal noise, Gaussian noise, Brownian noise, etc..all of that is a soup of manipulable energetics. That patterns and energies that underlie the fabric is a consideration of energetic alignments, geometric alignments, vibration, resonance, geometry,and intelligence. That it is alive.

Which means, there is

One type: The eater, the consumer of all, the objectivist thing of a machine like destroyer.
Second type: the protector AND the observer type (non-interfering)
And, the third type: The one who is growing, coming into being.

Humans appear to be, at this time... type number three, overall. With some far ahead, some further back in this development path, and various individual and groups moving in different directions.

And then.....what seems to be surrounding us, types one (highly organized, low thought, war/military/strict systems), and two (protectors, and those who try to warn and help in other ways).

the indications are, via using hypnosis on our dual layered selves, as humans.... that we are in some way 'frozen' and purposely so, as part of a game. Our own miniature version of a breakout game.

we could be in an incubator, with seagulls circling and they not being allowed in until we reach a certain level of knowing and being.

Some think we are quarantined, some think we are protected. Hard to say, but the evidence points to some blend of both, based on the original point, the one of being an incubator of a sort.

Perhaps that has to do with the PTB types scrambling to gain parity with ET. To protect us if the evolution reaches a certain level, meaning the sciences developing and being widespread on the earth, at the very least.

My problem with that sort of scenario, is that protection and non-interference would have no way of preventing or involving itself with internal matters of the planet earth's more 'elitist' types using the mass of the people of the earth as a launch pad into the universe, and do it on the charred bones of their own group of incarnates.

[Ron Mauer Sr]

If we are to be our own saviors, then non-violent *civil disobedience* while the control freaks remain in charge is the only long term option we have.

The control freaks will use physical and emotional pain to achieve their objective of world domination, Agenda 21, debt slavery of whoever remains after planned depopulation. To dull the effectiveness of their tactics and reduce influence of their control:

• Simplify lifestyle.
• Get out of debt as much as possible.
• Stock up on dehydrated food, Mason jars (for vacuum sealed dehydrated food) and non-electric vacuum sealers.
• Without electricity, where is your unlimited source of clean water? If the water is not clean, where is your filter? How far will you need to haul water? Create a workable water plan.
• Small local communities are needed for sharing skills, resources and self defense.
• Get your money and paper resources out of the system. If you cannot touch it, it will belong to someone else.
• If there is any money left after prepping, consider the purchase gold or silver to preserve wealth. But remember that precious metals will not purchase food if grocery stores are closed. When the current financial system is replaced by whatever comes next, is when precious metals will be of most value.
  
• Consider the benefits of hiding your resources in diverse locations outside of your home. Make sure locations are *not* common knowledge within your community if you expect visits from unfriendly people.
• Purchase non-hybrid vegetable seeds.
• Plant fruit trees if you have space.
  
• Prepare garden beds that can be worked without power tools. Create fertile garden beds now while resources are available. Do so whether a garden is planned for this season or later.
  
• Purchase or build a solar food dehydrator.
• Purchase or build a composting or sawdust toilet. Only needed if you have clean water and food. Stock up on soap, it is not expensive.

If these issues are too uncomfortable to address,

Then turn on the TV and wait for an invitation to visit a local government run community center to be “processed”.

We should not expect the cavalry (ETs, religious figures, world leaders, etc.) to come and save us. We must take responsibility for our own choices. This is our adventure, our opportunity to learn from the choices we make.

[Ron Mauer Sr]

This video is an interview with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and former editor of the Wall Street Journal.

Topics discussed include a real look at the economy, precious metals, Ukraine strategies and importance, and more.

I think it is an excellent interview. Always admire his analysis.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=AhxZxL56B00

[Ron Mauer Sr]

Four very short articles and excellent analysis of what the control freaks may have planned for us in the next couple of years.

• The establishment of the Green Police State is the key step in the domestication objectives of the super elite. More
• Which False Flag Event Will Be Used to Usher In Martial Law? More
• The Grand Chessboard of WWIII. More
• The Course of World War III. More

Thanks for links Roxanne.

[Tesseract]

Paul do you really think Russia dumping its bonds would achieve anything? Yields are pathetic so there is room for some absorption, the great bond collapse of 2013 never happened, and Russia only has a $138B investment according to:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

The Fed not long ago was buying $85b a month in debt, wouldn't they just buy their own treasuries if the dump came? Or, rather than there being a fundamental problem with a Russian bond sale, do you see them (TPTB) using such a move as an excuse to do something that is not really necessary?

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Tesseract (here)
Paul do you really think Russia dumping its bonds would achieve anything? Yields are pathetic so there is room for some absorption, the great bond collapse of 2013 never happened, and Russia only has a $138B investment according to:

http://www.treasury.gov/resource-cen...uments/mfh.txt

The Fed not long ago was buying $85b a month in debt, wouldn't they just buy their own treasuries if the dump came? Or, rather than there being a fundamental problem with a Russian bond sale, do you see them (TPTB) using such a move as an excuse to do something that is not really necessary?

If the bond and foreign exchange markets were essentially honest and if they were not immensely leveraged by interest rate derivatives, and if it was just Russia dumping its relatively small stash of US Treasuries, then you're probably right in suspecting it would not be an "End of the financial world as we know it."

The problems come with China joining in the Treasury selling as they hold an enormous stash of them, and with the resulting rise in US Treasury interest rates, and with the resulting acceleration of the trend to abandon the US Dollar for international trade settlement and petroleum purchases. Major shifts in either interest rates or foreign exchange (currency) rates would cause a substantial portion of over a quadrillion of interest rate and forex derivatives to "blow up", which would cause some seriously bankrupt major banks to "blow up". It would also cause a serious decline in imports to the US, or rise in their Dollar pricing, as exporters to the US no longer wanted to accept the currency risk.

Yes - the Fed could print Dollars to buy back rejected Treasuries - but businesses and individuals cannot print Dollars to cover the Dollar price increases of their imports, and some big banks cannot survive in a higher interest rate environment.

[ThePythonicCow]

The economic thunder clouds continue to gather on the horizon. In rt.com a few hours ago: Russia won't exclude sanctions to counter US and EU - Ministry:

Russia is ready to retaliate with counter sanctions against the EU and US if they go ahead with economic measures against Russia over tension in Crimea, the Russian Economic Ministry has said.

"We hope that there will only be targeted political sanctions, and not a broad package affecting economic trade,” Deputy Economic Development Minister Aleksey Likhachev said.

“Our sanctions will be, of course, similar,” he added.

One way Russia plans on shielding itself from pending sanctions is by boosting trade in other currencies, not the US dollar.

“We need to increase trade volume conducted in national currencies. Why, in relation to China, India, Turkey and other countries, should we be negotiating in dollars? Why should we do that? We should sign deals in national currencies- this applies to energy, oil, gas, and everything else,” Alexey Ulyukaev, the Minister of Economic Development said in an interview with the Vesti 24 TV Channel.

The Duma, Russia’s parliament, is drafting legislation to allow Moscow to freeze assets of Western companies and individuals in the event sanctions are imposed following the Crimea referendum vote on March 16.

The bill would give “the president and government opportunities to defend our sovereignty from threats,” according to its author, Andrey Klishas, as quoted by RIA Novosti on March 5.

The US Congress has already denounced Russia’s actions in Ukraine. On Tuesday, lawmakers passed a resolution that urges the US to “to work with our European allies and other countries to impose visa, financial, trade and other sanctions on senior Russian Federation officials, majority state-owned banks and commercial organizations, and other state agencies, as appropriate.”

Earlier this week the European Union threatened to impose further sanctions on Russia starting on March 17, after the referendum in Crimea takes place on Sunday.

The decision on sanctions was made, “especially on the procedure of introducing sanctions,” Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. “The consequence of this will be the start of sanctions on Monday,” he added.

However, China’s ambassador to Germany Shi Mingde, warns of the global economic affect sanctions against Russia could hold. Mingde said the geo-political tiff between Russia and the West could “spiral” into chaos.

President Putin and the foreign ministry have both said sanctions against Russia could backfire, and spill over into the global economy.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov denounced any Western-led sanctions as “hasty and ill-considered”, and President Putin said squeezing economically would cause “mutual damage”.

If extreme Iran-style sanctions are imposed on Russian exports, the EU would be much more exposed than the US.

Europe imports nearly one third of its gas from resource-rich Russia, and some countries are completely dependent on Russian gas.

While the US and Russia trade very little, Russia is Europe’s biggest customer, and the $13 trillion economy would suffer if trade with Russia was halted overnight.

[aheb]

I would like to make a point about war. I don't see this on the horizon but I do believe that the war that we may have will not be the war that others envisage. A coupe of months back, maybe a year a US drone was downed by Iran, the US said it was shot down, but on russia today we could see it was "hacked into" and landed, we then see the problems with Syria and we see the SEA " the Syrian Electtric Army hacking into the Marines website. Also consider an Iranian warship has sailed close to the USA ,although no one is reporting this now, just in range to launch a tactical nuclear airburst strike which will act like a coronal mass ejection, a huge magnetic wave wich will shut down all electrical systems in the US......for a country poor on wealth but rich in education and brains this would seem the way to go.
Without wishing to appear rascist I acknowledge that certain races have gifts......didn't Steve Jobbs invent windows then sell it to bill gates ( and he was an adopted child of Syrian stock).maybe we face a different future than we expect?

[Tesseract]

I agree that if China sells all its bonds in a hurry then there will be a major economic upheaval that may cause a social upheaval - some of the consequences we can probably guess, others we probably can't. However, I just don't see it happening that way. The bonds were bought as a sovereign investment and if they dumped them with little more than a market order they'd lose a tremendous amount of money. It's also a trick they can only play once, and they risk looking extremely stupid if their alleged objective is not achieved. Also, I think it's very easy to underestimate the amount of latent wealth in the US. But, most of all, I just don't see the Chinese government as being hell-bent on causing the USA to degrade into a grossly failed state - I think that is conservative paranoia. I'm not saying that is what you necessarily mean to imply, but certainly that is the picture that emerges when you listen to a lot of alternative commentators. Maybe China would sell for no other reason than that they didn't want to be left holding the bag, but a that would require an extraordinary loss of confidence.

I think the prospect of a managed bond sale (not exactly a dump, but a sale that sends a political message) by Russia is more plausible, given the current trouble regarding Ukraine, with China not getting drawn in economically.

On the subject of derivatives, the power of a derivatives crash to affect the underlying is pretty difficult to understand and therefore predict, if there is a volatility spike, one thing that will happen is a large number of new derivatives will be created that increase in value when interest rates rise. If all financial hell does break loose, then badly managed banks with exposure may go down, while others will make a fortune. I don't understand the detail of US bank regulation - so I don't know how realistic it is to expect account holders to lose their savings should their bank take a loss in its investing arm. However, I do tend to lean towards a scenario where 'the system' in the US weathers the storm with a fair degree of stoicism.

[Tyy1907]

Posted by jagman (here)

Posted by Tyy1907 (here)
From an Administrator nonetheless laugh

Can you elaborate on your statment?

It struck me as a doom and gloom kind of synopsis, was razzing him a bit.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by Tesseract (here)
I think the prospect of a managed bond sale (not exactly a dump, but a sale that sends a political message) by Russia is more plausible, given the current trouble regarding Ukraine, with China not getting drawn in economically.

Good points. I partially agree. Even if China did intend to "nuke" the US Treasury market, it likely wouldn't detonate all its explosives (sell all its Treasuries) at once. It could do a pretty nasty job just selling some of them, especially with the right public statements, while still holding onto some of them for further potential leverage over a distressed US and any other party entangled in such markets.

Posted by Tesseract (here)
On the subject of derivatives, the power of a derivatives crash to affect the underlying is pretty difficult to understand and therefore predict, if there is a volatility spike, one thing that will happen is a large number of new derivatives will be created that increase in value when interest rates rise. If all financial hell does break loose, then badly managed banks with exposure may go down, while others will make a fortune. I don't understand the detail of US bank regulation - so I don't know how realistic it is to expect account holders to lose their savings should their bank take a loss in its investing arm. However, I do tend to lean towards a scenario where 'the system' in the US weathers the storm with a fair degree of stoicism.

It's not clear to me how some banks would make a fortune ... being on the winning side of a big time bet only pays off if the loser pays up.

Derivatives, to my (limited) understanding are rather like swimmers in the open ocean tying themselves together. If one gets weak, the others can hold that one up. But ... if most of them get weak and some start to thrash and drown, all are threatened. It becomes like a bigger forest fire, thanks to having put out many smaller fires (and thusly saved up more flammable material.)

The sequence I have in mind is not that a derivatives failure (say in interest rate swaps) then directly causes a failure in the underlying security (say a rapid rise in interest rates.)

Rather I have in mind that a failure in the underlying security (say large sales of US Treasuries) causes a derivatives failure, which in turn causes some major Western financial institutions to melt down, with a consequent bank holiday, and some less than "voluntary" contributions by bank depositors and/or tax sheltered retirement funds to the solvency of the United States.

One by one, the sources of strength in the US have been undermined. It may now be easier to over estimate the amount of latent wealth in the US than to underestimate it. In my view, this undermining is deliberate and has been ongoing for decades.

Over the centuries, the bastards in power have moved from Venice to London to New York (and other places.) It seems to me that they are on the move again. Only this time, I do not think they are moving to Beijing or Moscow ... rather those power centers are just convenient transient counter-balances to US hegemony. Rather said bastards are now moving to "Planet Earth" as their power base, thanks to the technology installed planet wide in recent times.