Peak Oil debate...resolved?

[Snowflower]

Yep. We're probably giving Gaia arthritis.

[donk]

Thinking about the "renewable" aspect and the mention of reinforcing our own beliefs: if that's the "truth" than to me it's an even worse situation. Likening it to earth's lube or Gaia's blood is a nice analogy. We should be treating it as sacredly as we do our own blood (or should be), using only for emergency, being careful how we extract it, respecting the source, using for the good of all.

Treating it and thinking about it the way most of us have been programmed to do, as infinite and renewing or as a substance we need to race the competition to get at or a god given right to drill at 5 miles under the ocean, to me is just suicidal.

[Carmody]

Like the bundy thread and all it indicates, it's about grace under fire.

As soon as we can work with one another cohesively, with the least amount of issues, then we can get to the over unity devices, and anti-gravity.

Right now, as a group of humans we are the worst kind of war-like, illiterate, unaware, animalistic, cannibalistic, murderous octopus that anyone could imagine.

For all of our 'goodness' and correctness, we are all of these other things, as well.

And if we unite, and we unite against what we feel is a common enemy, that that is no good either. We'd still be living with the same problems as before.

Our best chance, that I can see, really is tearing down the genetic components that bring us sociopathy.

I don't think that we'll be either allowed, or welcome into a galactic community, until something akin to that takes place.

Why say that in this thread? ell, everything is connected to everything, and in this case, very much so.

Concentration on the issue of peak oil -or no peak oil, has little to nothing to do with solving our real problems, problems which will hold us back and tear us down, long before and long after this peak oil/no peak oil question is answered.

I can understand the need for a thread, but the real issue lies elsewhere.

Peak oil is symptomatic, not causal.

[ralfy]

Just two weeks ago, one source asked if we have now reached peak production for tight oil:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmac...for-tight-oil/

For context,

In the 1950s, Hubbert predicted that U.S. conventional production would peak in the 1970s, and world conventional production in the mid-1990s. He also referred to unconventional production that would be needed to make up for that.

U.S. conventional production did peak in 1970, and a global oil crunch followed. A few years after that, Hubbert was interviewed, and he said that the recent crunch will postpone world conventional peak by around a decade, to the mid-2000s.

Meanwhile, in 1971, the Club of Rome predicted that world economic output would peak after 2020 due to a resource crunch.

In 1979, world oil production per capita peaked but it only became known later. To this day, it has not recovered.

In 2005, world conventional production peaked (as predicted by Hubbert). Some experts also reported that world discoveries peaked in the 1960s, and that two-thirds of oil-producing countries experienced peak or declining production by 2005.

In 2008, the global economy crashed due to soaring debt and high oil prices, and may have been influenced by rising oil production costs. Meanwhile, the U.S. began to produce from unconventional sources to make up for conventional production issues, but it needed rising oil prices. The global economy remained weak for a decade.

In 2010, the IEA acknowledges that world conventional production peaked in 2005. They could not conclude that earlier because they only started to do a global survey of oil fields in 2008. Meanwhile, the EIA reported that U.S. unconventional production might peak after 2020.

Also, in 2010, Lloyds of London and the U.S. military argued that oil supply issues would take place by 2020 assuming that economic growth would continue. BP reported that total global production was being compensated by U.S. tight oil production.

In 2012, one scientist went back to the Limits to Growth forecasts and noted that four decades of real data tracked the forecasts, which stated that global economic output would peak after 2020.

A few years after that, several reports revealed that due to volatile oil prices, the oil industry had to borrow large amounts of money to continue producing oil, and that it is facing diminishing returns: increasing amounts of money needed to get less new oil each time. The BIS estimates that its debts have now reached $2.5 trillion, and it needs oil to rise to around $100 a barrel to pay off the debt. At the same time, it has to borrow more money to continue increasing production, and will need oil price to rise to at least $150 a barrel to tap oil from fields like Manifa.

With the current pandemic, demand may drop, leading to lower oil prices, which in turn will affect producers that need higher oil prices in order to tap more costly sources. Hence, the news given above.

Finally, about anti-gravity and other technofixes, these involve lag times across many decades, if not low energy returns. In short, any transition to alternative, if not better, energy sources will require large amounts of cheap oil to act as a buffer.

[Pam]

Posted by ralfy (here)
Just two weeks ago, one source asked if we have now reached peak production for tight oil:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/woodmac...for-tight-oil/

For context,

In the 1950s, Hubbert predicted that U.S. conventional production would peak in the 1970s, and world conventional production in the mid-1990s. He also referred to unconventional production that would be needed to make up for that.

U.S. conventional production did peak in 1970, and a global oil crunch followed. A few years after that, Hubbert was interviewed, and he said that the recent crunch will postpone world conventional peak by around a decade, to the mid-2000s.

Meanwhile, in 1971, the Club of Rome predicted that world economic output would peak after 2020 due to a resource crunch.

In 1979, world oil production per capita peaked but it only became known later. To this day, it has not recovered.

In 2005, world conventional production peaked (as predicted by Hubbert). Some experts also reported that world discoveries peaked in the 1960s, and that two-thirds of oil-producing countries experienced peak or declining production by 2005.

In 2008, the global economy crashed due to soaring debt and high oil prices, and may have been influenced by rising oil production costs. Meanwhile, the U.S. began to produce from unconventional sources to make up for conventional production issues, but it needed rising oil prices. The global economy remained weak for a decade.

In 2010, the IEA acknowledges that world conventional production peaked in 2005. They could not conclude that earlier because they only started to do a global survey of oil fields in 2008. Meanwhile, the EIA reported that U.S. unconventional production might peak after 2020.

Also, in 2010, Lloyds of London and the U.S. military argued that oil supply issues would take place by 2020 assuming that economic growth would continue. BP reported that total global production was being compensated by U.S. tight oil production.

In 2012, one scientist went back to the Limits to Growth forecasts and noted that four decades of real data tracked the forecasts, which stated that global economic output would peak after 2020.

A few years after that, several reports revealed that due to volatile oil prices, the oil industry had to borrow large amounts of money to continue producing oil, and that it is facing diminishing returns: increasing amounts of money needed to get less new oil each time. The BIS estimates that its debts have now reached $2.5 trillion, and it needs oil to rise to around $100 a barrel to pay off the debt. At the same time, it has to borrow more money to continue increasing production, and will need oil price to rise to at least $150 a barrel to tap oil from fields like Manifa.

With the current pandemic, demand may drop, leading to lower oil prices, which in turn will affect producers that need higher oil prices in order to tap more costly sources. Hence, the news given above.

Finally, about anti-gravity and other technofixes, these involve lag times across many decades, if not low energy returns. In short, any transition to alternative, if not better, energy sources will require large amounts of cheap oil to act as a buffer.

Very interesting and timely post! Welcome to the forum ralfy! I look forward to hearing more from you!!!