India elects Narendra Modi: effect on BRICS and silver market?

[ThePythonicCow]

Prescript:

I don't follow India much, and would welcome comments and corrections from members of the Avalon forum who have more knowledge or experience of the following.

For most of the last 50 years, India, the world's largest democracy, has been ruled by the party of Nehru and Gandhi, the Congress Party.

Prior to yesterday, the Congress party held 206 of the 543 elected seats in India's lower house, and their leader, Manmohan Singh was Prime Minister of India.

Today, Narendra Modi is the Prime Minister designate of India, after leading the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a decisive victory in the 2014 Indian general elections.

From The New Yorker:

No single party had won an outright majority in the Lok Sabha, Parliament’s lower house, since 1984. Of the five hundred and forty-three seats, the B.J.P. won a stunning two hundred and eighty-two; with its coalition allies, it controls a dominating three hundred and thirty-four seats.

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India has puzzled me, as its government seemed to be more under the control of the Anglo-American empire than the other BRICS (Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa) nations.

For example, while Russia and China are rather openly accumulating gold, India attempted to curb gold imports into India during the last year. The people of India have a long standing tradition of buying gold. Gold smuggling into India increased substantially, and rather predictably, in response.

Also, in this web interview earlier this week, Jim Willie revealed that India has been the primary source since about 2007 or 2008 of silver used to continue the suppression of the price of silver by the Anglo-American elite. Prior to then, the US had been covertly selling its silver stash, 14,700 tons of which previously was used during World War II for the conductor coils in the uranium enrichment facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee (see also here.)

When that US silver ran out, Jim Willie reports India was pressured into supplying its silver hoard to that purpose, sending the silver via the way of the Vatican to the Anglo-American silver markets. Willie suspects that part of the pressure on India involved threats of further acts of terrorism on its soil, if it didn't comply. According to Wikipedia, in the 15 years prior to 2008, India was averaging one terrorist attack per year with 30 or more casualties. In the 6 years since then, India has had zero such attacks. So ... perhaps India's silver did buy it a few years of reduced terrorist attacks.

The Congress party of India and their leader Prime Minister Singh are now reduced to just 44 seats in the lower house. A new party and a new leader who has promised to focus on what is economically beneficial for India are taking power.

Perhaps India's support of the Anglo-American precious metal market manipulation will be changing shortly, and perhaps the 6th BRICS summit, to be held in Brazil in July of 2014 will evidence increased involvement of India in the efforts of the BRICS nations to form a financial, banking, and economic alternative to the Anglo-American dominated empire.

[ThePythonicCow]

Zerohedge has (not surprisingly) a different take on Modi's victory in the Indian election. Narendra Modi: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly. His article begins:

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Given the surge in India's stock market, echoing the reflexive pro-business exuberance of last year's Japanese stock market, the similarities between India's newly-elected PM Narendra Modi and Japan's Shinzo Abe are coming thick and fast... some good (pro-business), some bad (potential dislike of the US) and some potentially ugly (strong nationalist tendencies).

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[GoodETxSG]

Many good points, Many of the BRICS Allies are indeed buying Gold and Silver still, though less bowing to China's demand. One guess why... Knowing you Paul you don't even need one guess do you?

BRICS Nations are also playing "Cat and Mouse" with the Cabal as many of them are still firmly within its claws... Once the completion of their B-IMF, Gold Backed Currency and trashing of the Petro $ that "CAT" will be de-clawed. BRICS's is also having issues holding smaller allied nations together because of ongoing Coup and CIA Op's going on... Lets not forget how much Gold is in the ground in South America, Asia and Africa... (As we know Silver is more rare and after the manipulation is over who knows how the scales will look like), IMHO of course...

All of the US Outsourcing to India created a whole new class beholding to the West (Among the young...) and causing "DIVISION" among the older generation and those who want to preserve their proud (10,000 + Year Culture). SOUND FAMILIAR? Divide and conquer... These young "Rich Elitists" Techie's look down on the old ways and the ghetto's the left behind.

This kind of change in India is a big deal on some levels... but they do still have a way to go to fully integrate into the BRICS mindset. IMHO yet Again...

[Agape]

There are two things I don't resonate with well and those are human politics and economy so my answer may not be profound .

From experience and observation - BJP represents more of the 'national conscience' of Indian people and will hopefully try to protect 'small peoples' best interests ( there's more than one billion of small people in India after all ) , their traditional unity and ideals and boost home economy ,
how well will they fare in big international relations where the Congress leaders had more experience is hard to predict at this point .

But it's about time .. before the tipping point when many large and small Indian companies would sell the country to rich foreign investors together with peoples minds , increasing the rift between 'well off middle class' and traditionally poor , uneducated and forgotten 'worker classes' even more to point where the division would be too huge and beyond recovery .

They have taken up huge responsibility in front of the eyes of international community watching intently , to rise living standards of the poorest .. which itself is continuos and hard struggle , and solve internal problems on their own rather than asking for more influence from outside ...whether it's the US , China or Russia .. while the latest are sneaking readily through every unprotected door , very easily .. because the options for investments and capitalisation of Indian market and society are too tempting .

Only time will show whether these new leaders are firm enough to handle such responsibility without major failures . It's not an easy task .

If they're really smart .. they would open the gold and silver reserves ( both are huge ), I think so far ..they were too frightened to play bigger card and show what they have . By doing so , the gold&silver prices would go down and reduce competition between major world economies ,
and it would strengthen Indian rupee in turn as well.

[aheb]

Welll I'll steer this a little of course at first. Jim Willie was mentioned, now Jim has previously said to watch out for the faiure of two big banks. The ones he mentioned were Barclays and Deutche bank. Barclays have just laid of 18,000 employees and Deutche bank has just sold a casino for $1 billion, and surrendered it's seat at the Gold fixing board..... also the Silver fixing board is being abandoned in August.
I know with gold the price for a long time was determined by the Indians, and in the marriage season the sale of gold would increase,, in recent years that has been surpassed by the Chinese.The last Indian government were influenced by the Fed, no question, but the new one may well not be. The problem that we all have understanding this is we do not know their politics or their culture and how this ties in with everything............it does seem that things are begining to unravel, but I believe that it will take a true black swan, and by that I mean something that we had never even considered, to bring the house of cards down.

[GoodETxSG]

When I was in India to train my replacement (When I worked for Microsoft) I couldn't believe the difference between "One side of the track and the other"... It was amazing and mind blowing... And this is coming from someone who spent a lot of time in Haiti seeing the poorest conditions I have seen in all of my travels. This was during the beginning of the Western Seduction of the Tech Savvy Youth of India...

There were even protests outside of the new American looking buildings and Mini Cities that were even then against the "Western Destruction of Indian Culture"... No one listened, they just saw $$$$$$$$$$$$$$... Once seduced and commercialized the argument was lost by the elders.

I was blown away to find out that back then India was one of the largest buyers/importers of Gold. Their reserves have to be massive unless the BRICS back room deals to build up China's Gold Reserves to make them the defacto go to as the monetary replacement for the Petro $... I am shocked that all of the gold transported to that part of the world hasn't changed the natural wobble of the Earth...

BRICS has a plan, slow... methodical, cunning and the biggest multiple dimensional layered game of chess ever played. They say "A well placed Pawn can take down a King"... We are the pawns and their boards have billions of them... Over 1.7 Billion in India alone. Now we are pawns dealing with Kings convinced they are God's...

[kanishk]

Recently in Delhi assembly elections there was a great probability that peoples in Delhi would opt for NOTA option i.e. None Of The Above. So if that had happened all the people in India would have followed that and there would be a new amendment in elections commissions rules regarding NOTA option. To suppress that Rockefeller funded 'aap' party, so that people would opt for this new party instead of NOTA option.

Now Narendra Modi as a Cheaf Minister of Gujrat was a cleaver guy. He used good amount of planners and management specialist to decide what action should be taken next on the priority of development first. But for planners our standard main stream model of economy is the basis of their planing. So therefore when I look at the development he has done in his state and the city, I see the influence of Agenda 21.

'Congress party' is like a Illuminati or a free mason in India. They have Nehru blood lines running in their family but have surnames as Gandhi. And these blood lines, that means the family members are also in 'BJP party'. Robert Vodra, son in law of Sonia Gandhi have plus security for reasons unknown and seems to own half of Delhi. He uses many illuminati symbols, don't know why, some muslim guys get very annoyed by this symbolism.

But it seems that as compared to Congress in BJP there are less people that can directly be influenced by foreign sects and foreign policies. Modi was once the member of RSS {=Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh(=National volunteers community)} and BJP is also influence by RSS. RSS people are Brahmanistic. Therefore Scheduled Caste people don't use to give vote to BJP but still this time BJP won from areas dominated by Scheduled Caste regions, and not a single seat is won by BSP {i.e. a party adored by scheduled caste people}, this shows that people gave vote on the issue of development but not on the basis of cast and religions. Well many Muslims in India are currently in huge terror because of this victory of BJP. But last time in elections there was an issue that Congress has manipulated the EVM machines to get voted, don't know if that happened this time also and BJP is the new face of Congress.. may be.

But winning with this much huge confidence makes Lower house too much powerful. Narendra Modi as a PM can take decisions like the President of America. No time delays and very less oppositions. Opposition can be faced in the matters like Caste, Reservations etc..

[kanishk]

Narendra Modi can be a very bad dictator, there is a probability. He allowed Godhara killings to happen and not allowed police and military to interfere. A former PM Atal Bihari Vajpiye a former BJP politician was not happy about what Narendra Modi had allowed to be done in that period.

This time BJP spent so much money on rallies and advertisements. Narendra Modi used Holographic Projection technology to reach small towns and villages to spread his promotions. People say that its the big companies that are funding him for these promotions because they will benefit more if BJP wins this time, but that doesn't seem valid. Congress has done almost nothing to promote their political agenda, people say that it is because they already know this is going to happen to them and that they are were too apathetic to spend money on advertisements, and that also doesn't seem valid explanation.

Congress already have started many Agenda 21 things and possibly by changing the names of those schemes to some other hindu names Narendra Modi will also continue those Agendas furthers. But the big factor may be other members of the BJP party. Most of them may follow the instinct of their own and it would be difficult for foreign interest groups to influence these people.

[ThePythonicCow]

Thank-you, kanishk, for your updates. Very fine.

[AuCo]

More gold to China is not a good sign for China herself, strictly IMO. People in this corner of the world are known to save more than to spend especially when they fear something bad is going to happen, like war, economic turmoil. When housing was booming, they put money into ... buying a house, and even cheat to buy a second which is recently forbidden by law. The housing bubble is predicted to burst, they put money into, well gold - the preferred safe saving in bad time. Say, if every Chinese were to save 1/10 oz of gold a year, that is 1/10 of 1.4 billion oz or 4,000 tons of gold.

[AuCo]

Still, IMHO. India is part of the BRICS, but never ever puts her trust in China. She was not too fond of the West, needed the Soviet's backing until it collapsed, and now has to go with the West, to field against the Chinese expansion. Once Kashmir is lost, the entire Indian subcontinent is fully compromised. Between China and the West, India will definitely side with the West. Unless she is infiltrated from the inside.

And no more gold into India? Well, put that saving into something more tangible for economic growth, I guess.

[ThePythonicCow]

From ArabianMoney.net:

India to relax gold tax very soon boosting prices predicts the World Gold Council

India’s penal gold taxes were one of the main drivers to lower gold prices last year. But the overwhelming victory of new prime minister Narenda Modi is expected to throw that leverage into reverse with hedge funds also taking their cue from Indian buyers.

‘It’s only a matter of time before these restrictions on gold are removed completely by the new Indian government,’ World Gold Council MD Marcus Grubb told the Telegraph. ‘Gradually, a number of things are now adding up to make investors more positive about gold.’

October festival

The newspaper reported that some experts see the unpopular gold import regulations being relaxed by the Hindu Diwali religious festival in October, often the trigger for a seasonal uplift in gold prices.

Even with the gold tax in place India was still the second largest importer of gold in the world after China last year with 825 tonnes imported against 860 in 2012, albeit illegal imports are thought to have added 200 tonnes as Indians usually buy gold whenever prices are low.

After the 28 per cent price correction last year the gold price is up eight per cent this year and gold ranks among the best performing major assets, while global stocks have mainly moved sideways. Actual gold demand was steady with global jewellery consumption up three per cent to 571 tonnes in Q1 and investment demand dipping from 288 to 282 tonnes.

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I am guessing that China will not mind more buyers of gold ... once they have gotten their share. That's the basic way to profits in a market - buy first and then let others fight over the scraps, driving up the price.