"Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

[Bob]

The existing southern coronal hole is building

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet


Interplanetary Mag. Field - being south orientation, this opens up the earth's geomagnetic fields to instability
Btotal: 3.1 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT south



there is a strong linear geometry present in the coronal hole which is earth facing.

Radio Sun - microwave fields being present are slightly elevated
10.7 cm flux: 158 sfu

auroral activity reflects the solar coronal geometry

[Bob]

Solar wind - really picking up speed, but proton count is about normal.
speed: 684.8 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3

GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight. Earth is passing through a fast-moving (~650 km/s) stream of solar wind, and this is causing geomagnetic unrest around the poles


sunspot count diminishing as they rotate away from earth facing.

Auroral energy curves were running in the RED (a bit more calm now but still strong)


Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled


Interplanetary Mag. Field - strong south orientation in the geomagnetic field allowing particle flux into the earth's magnetic shield.
Btotal: 6.5 nT
Bz: 3.3 nT south

As of 0300 GMT, the field polarity switched to slightly north orientation then moved slightly south, oscillating back and forth, for the most-part closing down some of the energetic assault.

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 0.1 nT south

Radio Sun - microwave assault has diminished as the sunspots which were emitting strong fields are moving out of earth view.
10.7 cm flux: 137 sfu

On top of all that a very LARGE earth facing geometrical coronal hole remains open and streaming particles.


Early auroral images

[Bob]

Solar wind - has slowed down a little bit and proton count is a bit down
speed: 657.5 km/sec
density: 2.6 protons/cm3

The particle stream is hitting earth - this is causing G1-class geomagnetic storming around the poles.



there are 4 predominant sunspots earthfacing with no significant flare activity potential - they are arranged linearly which is interesting

Radio Sun microwave field strength is not as high as it has been with emission from some of the previous active sunspots
10.7 cm flux: 132 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

Interplanetary Mag. Field is still slightly south oriented
Btotal: 4.3 nT
Bz: 0.9 nT south



there is still a strong coronal hole in the south earthfacing and emitting a particle stream - there is geometry present - possibly 3 more coronal holes look like they may open up

Auroral activity is spectacular with a storm happening

[Bob]

Solar wind - slowing down a bit, and proton count is down a bit
speed: 566.3 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3

the auroral oval is touching down into the US at 0700GMT

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field - has been oscillating south orientation
Btotal: 5.3 nT
Bz: 1.5 nT south

large geometrical coronal hole in the south, with new ones forming in the NW

auroral patterns are starting to show the newer geometry in the solar corona

(looks like the ribbon to the Nexus)

[Bob]

Solar wind - slowing down a little bit, proton count going back up
speed: 501.1 km/sec
density: 4.8 protons/cm3

With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun has grown quiet.
Radio Sun - microwave earthside bombardment staying low
10.7 cm flux: 133 sfu


there is still a large coronal hole with geometry beaming particles to the earth

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
about 0400 GMT

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: -0.0 nT - currently neutral, but has been oscillating + - + -

beautiful aurora patterns, still tracking solar coronal hole geometry

[Bob]

Solar wind - slowing down and proton count dropping
speed: 456.7 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3


8 spots pointed at earth, with at least 2 that have M class flare potential

Radio Sun - mirowave levels are increasing again with the amount of sunspots earthfacing
10.7 cm flux: 154 sfu



the coronal holes we were seeing a few days ago have gotten larger and are now earthfacing streaming particles - all holes have geometry. The southern-most hole has mostly closed.

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet


Interplanetary Mag. Field - with south orientation particle influx into the geomagnetic earth fields remains a high possibility.
Btotal: 5.9 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT south

Auroral oval is STRONG. And quite spectacular

[Bob]

Solar wind - starting to pick up speed
speed: 506.0 km/sec
density: 4.4 protons/cm3

11 sunspots, starting to appear and earthfacing with two with fields strong enough for earth facing flare generation

The auroral oval is almost complete indicating a strong energetic saturation across the pole. Northern Alaska and the Yukon are especially experiencing bright strong aurora currently.



Earthfacing coronal holes with Geometry ARE currently earthfacing and particles have been streaming strongly and hitting the earths geomagnetic and ionosphere fields.

The "nexus ribbon" Alaska

[Bob]

Solar wind - not too fast but density of proton charges is increasing
speed: 376.5 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3


9 sunspots earthfacing with AR2242 capable of launching a direct earth facing CME and X class flare..This sunspot lit off a large M class, 3 days ago.

Radio Sun - strongly sending microwave energy earthwise
10.7 cm flux: 185 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field - northfacing is somewhat shutting out the particle bombardment
Btotal: 6.9 nT
Bz: 0.9 nT north

Although there are no LARGE earthfacing coronal holes, there are small ones with geometry (as seen above) present. There is a potential for a triangular shaped hole to open.

Auroras were seen in New Zealand, in Queenstown:

[Bob]

The X-Class 1.8 that erupted out of AR2242 emitted a blast of X-Rays and UV at earth.

Interplanetary Mag. Field - with a strong south polarity particles can enter easily.
Btotal: 8.8 nT
Bz: 8.5 nT south



numerous coronal holes are starting to open up with geometry but NASA/NOAA reports none are considered singularly "big"

Radio Sun - is showing STRONG microwave energy bombardment earthside
10.7 cm flux: 213 sfu



Animation .mov file for the flare - here: http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h26...171_S19W28.mov

Strong auroras with geometry are present:

[Bob]

Solar wind - about a good normal speed, but with increasing protons
speed: 407.7 km/sec
density: 9.5 protons/cm3



7 sunspots with the other two having rotated off earthfacing view - AR2242 which lit off a strong pulse Saturday is still in view.

Radio Sun - microwave hitting the earth remains strong.
10.7 cm flux: 203 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

The planetary magnetic field is bouncing and predominantly south oriented, allowing for solar particle influx.

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 15.1 nT
Bz: 7.5 nT south



numerous small coronal holes are earthfacing with geometry - the southernmost hole is starting to take on a large concerning shape.

Auroral activity remains strong due to the particle energy hitting the earth.

[Bob]

Solar wind - all normal at the moment
speed: 346.8 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3

Radio Sun - microwave fields are HIGH, leading to strong stress levels
10.7 cm flux: 206 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field has strongly switched to northerly thereby blocking particle interaction
Btotal: 12.1 nT
Bz: 10.0 nT north

The auroral oval is showing highly diminished activity due to the northern magnetic field orientation.



numerous small coronal holes with geometry are currently shrinking, so the energetics are coming from the sunspots. There are 9 sunspots earthfacing once again.



PRIOR auroral activity:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 21st, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm.
For sky watchers around the Arctic Circle, the longest night of the year was filled with colorful lights.

These auroral images are from the 21'st (22nd are showing low activity)

[Bob]

Solar wind - normal speed, and proton count a bit lower than usual
speed: 431.9 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3

PEACEFUL SUN: With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun is quiet and solar activity is low. NOAA forecasters estimate a waning 10% chance of X-flares on Christmas Day.



down to 6 relatively calm sunspots

Radio Sun - microwave bombardment of earth is dropping down - 140 is about normal
10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.5 nT
Bz: 4.5 nT south - a southern pointing field would allow for particle storms to enter



there are two massively large coronal holes set to impinge their particles onto earth fields

Nice auroral images due to the past particle influx hitting the earths fields

[Bob]

Solar wind - normal
speed: 452.8 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3

QUIET SUN: With no sunspots actively flaring X class, the sun is quiet and solar activity is low. NOAA forecasters estimate a slight 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.

SUDDEN DIP IN COSMIC RAYS: Every day, Earth is bombarded by galactic cosmic rays--subatomic particles accelerated to high energies by distant supernovas, stellar flares, and other explosions. On Dec. 21st, ground-based neutron monitors detected a sudden decrease in this cosmic radiation. The following plot from the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station in Finland shows the change:

Over a 48-hour period beginning on Dec. 21st, a series of three CMEs swept past Earth, delivering glancing blows to our planet's magnetosphere.

These CMEs swept aside many of the cosmic rays that would normally bombard our planet.

The dip in cosmic rays is called a "Forbush Decrease," named after physicist Scott E. Forbush who first described it in the 20th century.

The ongoing Forbush Decrease is producing some of the lowest radiation levels of the current solar cycle. This is good news for airline passengers, pilots, flight attendants and astronauts

Radio Sun - microwave bombardment very slightly above normal (140) due to quiet sunspots
10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field (northernly closing down the geomagnetic fields of earth to outside particle influx)
Btotal: 5.0 nT
Bz: 1.7 nT north

Auroral Oval, NIL, hardly any auroral activity

two potentially large holes with potential activity, but not of sufficient level at the moment, to warrant an alert level.. Geometry is present.

This aurora was pictured over northern Russia on the 26th December

[Bob]

Solar wind
speed: 426.8 km/sec
density: 4.0 protons/cm3

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY OUT OF THE SUN !!



Not one of these sunspots has the kind of unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for strong flares. Solar activity is low.

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Interplanetary Mag. Field - the slight change to southernly will allow for small amounts of particles to interact with the earths geomagnetic fields
Btotal: 7.2 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT south



the northernly Coronal hole is starting to close.

There was some strange geometry in the Aurora (weak) over in Norway on the 26th Dec.

[Bob]

About that massive Coronal hole...

The coronal holes on the sun’s poles may be seen for five or more years. Their shape can vary greatly, though.

It’s assumed that high-speed winds of solar particles coming out of the sun’s dark holes can cause geomagnetic storms and auroras on Earth.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which detected the latest coronal hole, participated late last year in the creation of one of the most impressive images of the sun ever. SDO’s picture was then combined with a photo of the sun’s X-ray emissions taken by NASA’s Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array.

A vast hole has opened in the atmosphere over the sun's south pole, and it is spewing solar wind into space. The gaseous gap, a.k.a. a 'coronal hole,' is colored dark-purple in this extreme ultraviolet image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory

Solar wind - slightly slower than normal, proton count slightly higher than normal.
speed: 391.7 km/sec
density: 8.1 protons/cm3

Radio Sun - microwave levels slightly higher than average
10.7 cm flux: 149 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.7 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT south

Auroral activity remains high due to the hole and flare energy influx into the earth's fields

The strong ribbon-like effect is reminiscent of the "Nexus ribbon"..

[Bob]

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.5 nT
Bz: 1.7 nT south

more southernly opened allowing in more particles from the open large coronal hole.
Another hole is forming in the upper left surface of the sun earthfacing.. strong solid geometry is showing up in the openings.



Radio Sun - solar microwave is increasing
10.7 cm flux: 150 sfu

Unusual geometry showing up in the auroras

[Bob]

STRONG STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT 24 hours

Solar wind - not too fast but highly indicative of a solar storm being present - proton count is 4 times above normals
speed: 457.8 km/sec
density: 16.9 protons/cm3


6 current sunspots

UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm erupted during the early hours of Jan. 7th, sparking bright auroras around Earth's poles. What happened? The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near our planet tipped south, opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere.

Solar wind poured in to fuel the strongest magnetic storm since Sept. 2014.

NOAA analysts believe the fluctuation in IMF is related to the arrival of a CME originally expected to miss Earth.

Radio Sun - the microwave field coming from the sunspots is about normal.
10.7 cm flux: 142 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong - this is a STRONG STORM WARNING to be expected in the next 24 hours..

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 16.1 nT
Bz: 13.8 nT north

Strong NORTHERNLY CURRENTLY, magnetic field orientation which closed the strong southern field that let the massive particle storm in.. THOUGH the geomagnetic field is OSCILLATING, meaning a LOT of instability currently exists in the geomagnetic field..



there are strong coronal holes earthfacing emitting strong solar particles to the earth. This will upset the geomagnetic field of the earth while they are opened and the particle stream continues to emit earth-facing.

Auroras

[Bob]

Just in, due to the strong geomagnetic storm and the CME which was supposed to miss, that HIT instead.. there have been some strong auroras, down south where they don't usually happen.. This below is from Bellingham Washington, USA

The solar wind proton density is increasing is now 5X over normal amounts - wind speed is slightly over normal but the proton content in the wind is UP..

Solar wind
speed: 408.8 km/sec
density: 20.2 protons/cm3

[Bob]

Solar Wind Speed: 621.9 km/sec - a bit fast but proton count is LOWER than usual
density: 1.3 protons/cm3


7 active sunspots

Radio Sun - microwave level is up a bit over normal.. That could be due to the other newer sunspot appearing.
10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.6 nT
Bz: 4.7 nT south orientation allowing for solar particles to easily enter the geomagnetic field of earth


There are coronal holes with geometry earthfacing

The southermost pole large coronal hole is closing. This is a pattern that has been seen months earlier, such as in a cycle.

Auroral activity has been band-like

[Bob]

The zigzag pattern was back with the auroras


Sunspot count is up now to 8

Radio Sun - microwave field level up slightly than before
10.7 cm flux: 152 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet


Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.7 nT
Bz: 2.8 nT south -southern orientation allows for particle streams to enter the earths geomagnetic field



Strong coronal holes have formed plus the southern region pole looks like it is forming a coronal hole again.