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Thread: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Safe - Filament's CME will miss, stability present

    CME TO MISS EARTH: Yesterday, a massive filament of plasma exploded away from the sun's northeastern limb.

    The CME it hurled into space (movie) is not expected to hit Earth. Geomagnetic activity should remain low for the next 3 days..

    Solar wind - Normal
    speed: 313.6 km/sec
    density: 4.3 protons/cm3

    Sunspots - nil


    Almost no sunspots = almost no solar activity. The sun's X-ray output has flatlined, and radio microwave bombardment is LOW.

    Radio Sun Microwave levels..
    10.7 cm flux: 108 sfu - LOW

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 4.4 nT
    Bz: 1.8 nT north

    HOWEVER.. Large CORONAL hole currently earthfacing, meaning particle streams from the hole will be streaming to earth. May 3rd/4th is the anticipated arrival date.



    A faint auroral glow was seen in Wisconsin USA, meaning the aurora was moving southwards, expanding from the earth's polar locations.


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar is QUIET..

    about as quiet as it can get..

    Auroral activity is NIL

    There is a small coronal hole earthfacing..

    NOAA scientists are well, flabbergasted - it is beyond quiet.. ATM

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 102 sfu microwave from sunspots NIL

    Coronal Hole

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    May 6th, the CME finally reached Earth..

    GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY: A minor geomagnetic storm is in progress on May 6th following the arrival of a CME at 01:43 UT. The CME's weak impact did not immediately spark bright auroras. However, storming could intensify as Earth passes through the CME's wake.

    Solar wind speed is about normal but with a higher proton particle count.

    Solar wind
    speed: 449.1 km/sec
    density: 11.7 protons/cm3

    X-FLARE: The sun is no longer quiet. Emerging sunspot AR2339 unleashed an intense X2-class solar flare on May 5th at 22:11 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:


    Note the location of the sunspots... AR2339 probably will evoke more x-class flares and light off more CME's for a week.



    Radio sun microwave levels are increasing, still under the 'normal levels'

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 128 sfu

    Current Auroral activity is HIGH, but not very high..

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 13.7 nT
    Bz: 1.9 nT south

    Coronal holes are small, being dwarfed by the sunspots kicking up

    Auroral activty over Hudson Bay, Canada


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?



    AR 2339 sunspot that lit off the X2 the other day is continuing to rotate into view.

    The Microwave electromagnetic field bombardment of earth from the sun is increasing once again.

    Radio Sun Microwave
    10.7 cm flux: 147 sfu



    There is set of coronal holes earthfacing with geometry forming

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Hilarious - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9Q2...9AJB2RmevUpuPT talks about a massive plasma wave zapped out from the Sun.. That is about as disinforming and sensationalistic as some of the PT Barnum circus exibitions of yesteryear..

    Nothing spectacular is affecting the earth from the X2 beamed out into space a few days ago.. But you-tubes and frantic sensationalists are trying to gleen some attention..

    Nothing to see there, despite their chest-beating ..

    During the early hours of May 9th, a magnetic filament snaking over the sun's northeastern limb rose up and flung itself into space.



    What is significant with AR2339 sunspot:

    While this eruption was underway, another magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR2339 also erupted. The two wild filaments combined to produce a bright CME.

    The expanding cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. It was photogenic, but not geoeffective. The sensationalist websites are harping on a non-event.

    More explosions are in the offing. Behemoth sunspot AR2339 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on May 9th.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind particle count remains elevated

    Solar wind
    speed: 342.0 km/sec
    density: 11.5 protons/cm3



    at least 10 sunspots earthfacing currently, leading to a higher than normal microwave bombardment of earth by the sunspots

    Radio Sun microwave emission levels
    10.7 cm flux: 160 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 8.5 nT
    Bz: 7.3 nT south remaining OPENED allowing for solar particle coupling to the earth's fields

    Coronal hole earthfacing - no significant geometry present


    Auroral activity was showing up more southerly than usual


    The above is from Hamilton, Montana USA

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solarwind speed is HIGH

    At least 10 sunspots earth facing.

    Speed: 659.9 km/sec
    density: 1.3 protons/cm3

    GEOMAGNETIC STORM: An interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th. Now, on May 13th, a high-speed stream of solar wind has arrived. A G1-class geomagnetic storms around the poles is happening currently.

    Radio Sun microwave field bombarding earth - HIGH
    10.7 cm flux: 163 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 5.0 nT
    Bz: 4.7 nT north

    As long as the interplanetary Magnetic Field continues to remain NORTH, particles will be deflected. When it points south, particle influx increases dramatically.

    Coronal holes are still earth pointing - combined with the CME patterns the particle influx is strong.



    Auroras - RED auroras are being seen in multiple locations






    Activity:
    Last edited by Bob; 14th May 2015 at 02:25.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?


    In the bullseye.. Large geometrical coronal hole earthfacing.. the particle stream should hit earth on May 18-19.

    Radio Sun microwave level bombarding earth is starting to decline
    10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu

    Solar wind speed elevated
    speed: 518.8 km/sec
    density: 1.5 protons/cm3


    8 earthfacing sunspots with AR2339 the crackly one starting to move to the horizon.. it's still a threat for a few more days..

    Aurora - pulse like patterns and bands were appearing






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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Terry Virts astronaut on the ISS was able to capture some video of the Aurora over western Australia..


    Flying through an Aurora @27 April 2015


    The coronal hole is still earthfacing:



    Radio Sun microwave bombardment of earth from the sun is still high, but not elevated
    10.7 cm flux: 131 sfu
    It will continue to drop as the sunspot count decreases


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    G5 Storm in progress and continuing

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    Coronal hole earthfacing


    Radio Sun microwave bombardment - strong
    10.7 cm flux: 131 sfu


    6 earthfacing sunspots

    Auroras
    Purples pinks and greens

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 5.8 nT
    Bz: 1.3 nT south

    Instability in the geomagnetic field meaning Auroras could be seen further away from the poles.

    South orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field means solar particles can enter and upset the stability.



    There is a coronal hole still earthfacing

    Radio Sun - microwave levels dropping as the offending sunspots have rotated out of view
    10.7 cm flux: 115 sfu



    Solar wind
    speed: 543.3 km/sec
    density: 2.4 protons/cm3

    Aurora


    (From Scotland above, Aberdeenshire)

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    String of Pearls - in Alberta Canada




    Flare activity is NIL - sun is quiet. No sunspots with M or X class flare ability earthfacing.


    Solar wind moderate - proton count LOW
    speed: 406.4 km/sec
    density: 1.3 protons/cm3


    Coronal holes are starting to rotate into view

    Radio Sun microwave bombardment of earth - LOW
    10.7 cm flux: 106 sfu

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Radio Sun microwave - very LOW
    10.7 cm flux: 99 sfu



    low solar activity (solar microwave shows how active the sunspots are, and in this case, although there are 6 earthfacing, nothing is emitting extremes..)



    Coronal holes with geometry are starting to form and go earthfacing

    Solar wind slightly slower than normal, with slightly higher proton count than normal
    speed: 325.8 km/sec
    density: 5.5 protons/cm3

    Alberta Canada - string of pearls phenomenon continues


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?


    Numerous coronal holes have formed, with geometry, earth facing.. Such could mean upcoming geomagnetic storm are possible in the upcoming 3-4 days.

    The sunspot count is decreasing, and the solar microwave field is dropping lower still.

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 98 sfu



    CALM SUN - No auroral activity has been posted recently.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar activity very LOW

    ONE sunspot earth facing AR2356



    Solar particle stream:

    speed: 404.1 km/sec
    density: 6.8 protons/cm3 (proton count elevated)

    The proton count is UP from previous days' coronal holes.

    Currently, the coronal holes have for the most part closed, although there is strong geometry in smaller 'tracks' earthfacing (see below)



    The banding IS quite interesting.

    Radio Sun Microwave field hitting earth
    10.7 cm flux: 93 sfu (LOW, or typical for one sunspot)

    No appreciable auroral images have been available for about a week, although there is aurora present.

    X-Ray flux and particle stream readouts:





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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    There were some brief blips in x-ray output from the sun over the last couple days but nothing at all dramatic.

    However another coronal hole, with geometry has formed again in a similar past location



    It is also triangular shaped.

    Radio Sun microwave field bombarding earth is up slightly, but way below the previous norms
    10.7 cm flux: 109 sfu



    4 weak sunspots are earth facing.

    Auroras are non-existent currently.

    Solar wind - LOW
    speed: 261.8 km/sec
    density: 1.2 protons/cm3

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 1 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    x-Ray baseline level continues to slowly rise most likely due to the increasing amount of small sunspots currently earth facing.

    The Coronal Hole that is earthfacing with a very pronounced triangular geometry continues to grow and is gaining a more direct line of sight positioning to earth.

    The geomagnetic interplanetary field is now currently southerly allowing for an influx of particles. Although currently the geomagnetic field is stable, and activity is considered LOW.






    Auroral activity is NIL

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?


    ATM there is an increase in geomagnetic instability - which could result in increased earthquakes and volcanic activity.

    SpaceWeather is identifying this effect as follows:
    O-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 14-15 when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras.

    Solar wind currently is showing up as this:
    speed: 612.2 km/sec
    density: 4.5 protons/cm3

    Radio Sun microwave emission is elevated for this part of the solar cycle, but not extremely high
    10.7 cm flux: 136 sfu (microwave level hitting earth)

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 10.9 nT
    Bz: 6.2 nT north (allowing for shielding)

    The current coronal hole which has been present this last week is starting to close and rotate out of earthfacing view


    Auroral activity is spotty, mostly due to the charged particle turbulence from the CIR's (see above).

    Keller, Washington State, USA

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    6 Coronal holes, one large one earth facing


    At the moment,
    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 0 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 4.4 nT
    Bz: 0.3 nT south - allowing for particles to enter the geomagnetic-fields of earth

    The M-class flare of the 18th should have somewhat of a particle storm hitting earth shortly. Posts 198 and 197 show the results when such lit off. The CME was not directly earthfacing when it lit off.

    One can see the size of the AR 2371 sunspot group and the potential exists for more M class flares.


    Auroras currently are LOW.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Protons are UP from the sun, hitting earth currently

    Solar wind
    speed: 346.6 km/sec
    density: 25.0 protons/cm3

    Speed is slightly slower so the kinetic energy impact is slightly less than if it were coming from a high speed "solar wind"

    There was a VERY SMALL CME hit on the Earth's magnetic field today, June 21st at approximately 1600 UT.
    That weak impact did not cause an obvious geomagnetic storm though, but there are at least two more CMEs en route and may create effects, and instability in the geomagnetic fields of earth.

    Sunspot AR2371 has erupted (again) on June 21st at 01:42 UT with a M2 class flare.

    You can see graphically here when this happened, and the effects noted:


    Looking at the X-Ray graphic, one can SEE the periodicity of the outburst/flares from the sunspot. This regular outburst is INTERESTING to observe and note.. Predicting FLARE output..


    Here is a closeup of the AR 2371 sunspot


    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 135 sfu - microwave fields are still relatively LOW hitting the earth from the sunspots (only two officially present, earthfacing)

    Numerous geometrical coronal holes are earth facing

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    One would assume that the unsettled geomagnetic field would be assisting Aurora presentation, the high energy particle influx, however auroral images are currently nil or low. Watching for auroras in Antarctica would be a good probability in the next few nights..

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