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29th April 2015 17:00
Link to Post #181
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2nd May 2015 03:09
Link to Post #182
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
Solar is QUIET..
about as quiet as it can get..
Auroral activity is NIL
There is a small coronal hole earthfacing..
NOAA scientists are well, flabbergasted - it is beyond quiet.. ATM
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 102 sfu microwave from sunspots NIL
Coronal Hole
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6th May 2015 15:35
Link to Post #183
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
May 6th, the CME finally reached Earth..
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY: A minor geomagnetic storm is in progress on May 6th following the arrival of a CME at 01:43 UT. The CME's weak impact did not immediately spark bright auroras. However, storming could intensify as Earth passes through the CME's wake.
Solar wind speed is about normal but with a higher proton particle count.
Solar wind
speed: 449.1 km/sec
density: 11.7 protons/cm3
X-FLARE: The sun is no longer quiet. Emerging sunspot AR2339 unleashed an intense X2-class solar flare on May 5th at 22:11 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
Note the location of the sunspots... AR2339 probably will evoke more x-class flares and light off more CME's for a week.
Radio sun microwave levels are increasing, still under the 'normal levels'
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 128 sfu
Current Auroral activity is HIGH, but not very high..
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 13.7 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT south
Coronal holes are small, being dwarfed by the sunspots kicking up
Auroral activty over Hudson Bay, Canada
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9th May 2015 00:24
Link to Post #184
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10th May 2015 01:44
Link to Post #185
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
Hilarious - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9Q2...9AJB2RmevUpuPT talks about a massive plasma wave zapped out from the Sun.. That is about as disinforming and sensationalistic as some of the PT Barnum circus exibitions of yesteryear..
Nothing spectacular is affecting the earth from the X2 beamed out into space a few days ago.. But you-tubes and frantic sensationalists are trying to gleen some attention..
Nothing to see there, despite their chest-beating ..
During the early hours of May 9th, a magnetic filament snaking over the sun's northeastern limb rose up and flung itself into space.
What is significant with AR2339 sunspot:
While this eruption was underway, another magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR2339 also erupted. The two wild filaments combined to produce a bright CME.
The expanding cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. It was photogenic, but not geoeffective. The sensationalist websites are harping on a non-event.
More explosions are in the offing. Behemoth sunspot AR2339 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on May 9th.
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12th May 2015 02:46
Link to Post #186
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13th May 2015 14:48
Link to Post #187
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15th May 2015 15:08
Link to Post #188
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
In the bullseye.. Large geometrical coronal hole earthfacing.. the particle stream should hit earth on May 18-19.
Radio Sun microwave level bombarding earth is starting to decline
10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu
Solar wind speed elevated
speed: 518.8 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3
8 earthfacing sunspots with AR2339 the crackly one starting to move to the horizon.. it's still a threat for a few more days..
Aurora - pulse like patterns and bands were appearing
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18th May 2015 15:39
Link to Post #189
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19th May 2015 02:38
Link to Post #190
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19th May 2015 18:01
Link to Post #191
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21st May 2015 15:10
Link to Post #192
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
String of Pearls - in Alberta Canada
Flare activity is NIL - sun is quiet. No sunspots with M or X class flare ability earthfacing.
Solar wind moderate - proton count LOW
speed: 406.4 km/sec
density: 1.3 protons/cm3
Coronal holes are starting to rotate into view
Radio Sun microwave bombardment of earth - LOW
10.7 cm flux: 106 sfu
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23rd May 2015 21:05
Link to Post #193
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24th May 2015 17:17
Link to Post #194
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29th May 2015 15:19
Link to Post #195
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5th June 2015 02:04
Link to Post #196
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5th June 2015 18:59
Link to Post #197
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14th June 2015 14:29
Link to Post #198
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
ATM there is an increase in geomagnetic instability - which could result in increased earthquakes and volcanic activity.
SpaceWeather is identifying this effect as follows:
O-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 14-15 when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras.
Solar wind currently is showing up as this:
speed: 612.2 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
Radio Sun microwave emission is elevated for this part of the solar cycle, but not extremely high
10.7 cm flux: 136 sfu (microwave level hitting earth)
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 10.9 nT
Bz: 6.2 nT north (allowing for shielding)
The current coronal hole which has been present this last week is starting to close and rotate out of earthfacing view
Auroral activity is spotty, mostly due to the charged particle turbulence from the CIR's (see above).
Keller, Washington State, USA
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20th June 2015 21:10
Link to Post #199
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
6 Coronal holes, one large one earth facing
At the moment,
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south - allowing for particles to enter the geomagnetic-fields of earth
The M-class flare of the 18th should have somewhat of a particle storm hitting earth shortly. Posts 198 and 197 show the results when such lit off. The CME was not directly earthfacing when it lit off.
One can see the size of the AR 2371 sunspot group and the potential exists for more M class flares.
Auroras currently are LOW.
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21st June 2015 18:34
Link to Post #200
Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
Protons are UP from the sun, hitting earth currently
Solar wind
speed: 346.6 km/sec
density: 25.0 protons/cm3
Speed is slightly slower so the kinetic energy impact is slightly less than if it were coming from a high speed "solar wind"
There was a VERY SMALL CME hit on the Earth's magnetic field today, June 21st at approximately 1600 UT.
That weak impact did not cause an obvious geomagnetic storm though, but there are at least two more CMEs en route and may create effects, and instability in the geomagnetic fields of earth.
Sunspot AR2371 has erupted (again) on June 21st at 01:42 UT with a M2 class flare.
You can see graphically here when this happened, and the effects noted:
Looking at the X-Ray graphic, one can SEE the periodicity of the outburst/flares from the sunspot. This regular outburst is INTERESTING to observe and note.. Predicting FLARE output..
Here is a closeup of the AR 2371 sunspot
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 135 sfu - microwave fields are still relatively LOW hitting the earth from the sunspots (only two officially present, earthfacing)
Numerous geometrical coronal holes are earth facing
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
One would assume that the unsettled geomagnetic field would be assisting Aurora presentation, the high energy particle influx, however auroral images are currently nil or low. Watching for auroras in Antarctica would be a good probability in the next few nights..
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