+ Reply to Thread
Page 11 of 15 FirstFirst 1 11 15 LastLast
Results 201 to 220 of 282

Thread: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

  1. Link to Post #201
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    As was pointed out the rhythm of AR2371 was becoming obvious with cyclic peaks of increasing outbursts (flares).

    Quote A severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is in progress on June 22nd. This follows a series of rapid-fire CME strikes to Earth's magnetic field during the past 24 hours. Magnetic fields in the wake of the latest CME are strongly coupled to Earth's own magnetic field. This is a condition that could sustain the geomagnetic storm for many hours to come. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight.
    Solar wind
    speed: 633.3 km/sec - high - normally one will see a slower wind speed with a high proton count. This time it is different, high kinetic energy is hitting.
    density: 13.6 protons/cm3 - high count but not as high as it could be


    AR 2371 is pointed at the earth.

    Here is the blast that hit earth and did cause a bit of a radio blackout.

    Auroral activity is very HIGH as shown in this current graphic:


    Alberta Canada

    Montana, USA

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 35.6 nT
    Bz: 17.3 nT north - north orientation is a good thing, a strong geomagnetic interplanetary field, much higher than normal.. North is shielding.. I can only imagine if this was a southerly polarity how much energy would be coming in.. AS-IS it is pretty strong looking at the auroral oval.
    Last edited by Bob; 22nd June 2015 at 20:16.

  2. Link to Post #202
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    One notch below maximum KP index - instabilty number 9 is the max, and it peaked at an 8, something we haven't seen such instability in a long time.


    Quote The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval.

    The planetary 3-hour-range index Kp is the mean standardized K-index from 13 geomagnetic observatories between 44 degrees and 60 degrees northern or southern geomagnetic latitude. The label 'K' comes from the German word 'Kennziffer' meaning 'characteristic digit.' The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938. SWPC has used the K-index since the forecast center began operations.
    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 7 strong
    24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 24.6 nT
    Bz: 21.2 nT south - being south orientation means the solar particles CAN easily enter the earth's geomagnetic field.

    The magnetic field strength is showing HIGH values.

    Auroral glows as far south as Cape Cod, MA, USA are showing up


  3. Link to Post #203
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    The geomagnetic storm continues

    Solar wind
    speed: 555.7 km/sec
    density: 0.7 protons/cm3 - proton count is down, and solar wind speed is up slightly over normals..

    A series of CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field on June 22nd, producing a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm.

    Auroras from the Canadian border appeared in the skies in more than a dozen US states, including places as far south as Colorado, Georgia, Virginia and Arkansas.


    AR 2371 still remains a concern for larger flares, currently lighting off C sized (small) events.. Prior flares reached M 6.7, not quite to the level of x-class.

    The next wave of CME particle storm is expected to hit between the nite of the 23rd and the 24th of June. Strong geomagnetic storms could disrupt power grids, and communications.

    A level 8 is predicted in the next 36 hours, where level 9 is the maximum.

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 12.3 nT
    Bz: 8.6 nT north - oscillating field, currently shielding effects in place.

    Currently large coronal holes are earthfacing streaming particles.

    Michigan, USA

    Steamboat Springs, Colorado, USA


    Scott Kelly from aboard the International Space Station " I've never seen this before- red #aurora. Spectacular! "

    (that's quite a bright red from way up there..)

    Last edited by Bob; 23rd June 2015 at 18:02.

  4. Link to Post #204
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Talk about stunning..

    Over New Zealand -


    Solar wind:

    speed: 659.3 km/sec
    density: 0.4 protons/cm3

    AR2371 is starting to rotate off earth facing, and the corresponding microwave field hitting earth from the sunspots IS diminishing


    Radio Sun Microwave - moving to LOW levels
    10.7 cm flux: 116 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled (in expectation of the CME's particle storm hitting in the next 24 hours)

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 10.4 nT
    Bz: 1.9 nT north (shielding evident)

    The CME's charged particles are expected to hit earth in the next 24-36 hours and could result in extreme activity as has happened in the last couple days, resulting in power outages, disruption of communications and extreme aurora activity..

    There are STILL earth facing Coronal holes streaming particles towards earth..


  5. Link to Post #205
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    In another geomagnetic storm

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 4.2 nT
    Bz: 1.5 nT south - south pointing allowing particle influx from the sun to affect the earth's geomagnetic field (instability)

    On the 24th the CME impact occurred, however a bit less than originally expected, however there may be more density location in the particle concentration as the earth moves into different areas.. so stronger (or weaker) effects of geomagnetic instability may be in the offing.

    The large coronal holes are still earthfacing.



    Radio Sun microwave field level continues to drop as the last present solar sunspot starts to rotate out of view.
    10.7 cm flux: 110 sfu


    Could AR 2371 still erupt even with an X-Class flare, yes.

    Solar wind
    speed: 590.8 km/sec
    density: 1.7 protons/cm3 - a higher speed with a lower proton density, about normal pattern for moving into a particle stream.

    Aurora - rare sighting in Denver Colorado in the mountains looking northerly for summer.

  6. Link to Post #206
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    New coronal hole earthfacing, streaming particles.



    Planetary K-index is pretty calm, but not totally flatlined.
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

    The solar microwave field is going way down, even with 3 new sunspots, of a very weak character eartfacing

    Radio Sun microwave
    10.7 cm flux: 97 sfu


    calm and more calm

    Solar wind
    speed: 365.0 km/sec
    density: 6.1 protons/cm3 slow and a little bit more than normal


  7. Link to Post #207
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind proton count is UP - there was forecast that a co-rotating interaction region would be entered shortly, pbly by the 5th July. That such a region would probably produce strong geomagnetic instability, and auroras due to the increased absorbed particles into the earth's geomagnetic field.

    Solar wind
    speed: 385.5 km/sec
    density: 21.6 protons/cm3

    The current x-Ray flux is NIL with no appreciable flare activity.
    However, Sunspot AR2378 has the potential to bump a bit, up into the M class flare levels.




    6 small sunspots point towards the earth curently, and a large coronal hole has been for the recent days also been earth facing.



    Coronal holes send particle streams towards the earth. When the geomagnetic field points SOUTH the particles can easily enter the geomagnetic field of the earth.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 11.1 nT
    Bz: 1.6 nT south

    Radio Sun microwave bombardment to earth is low, but not as low as it could be. This number increases when active sunspots are earth facing.
    10.7 cm flux: 114 sfu

    Auroral activity is NIL, with a chance in the next two days that there will be some activity due to the potential for solar flare activity.

  8. Link to Post #208
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Earth's entered the co-rotating interaction region, and the result is instability, and a geomagnetic storm. This possibility was pointed out in the post above.

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 5 storm
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm


    This potentially will evoke Auroral activity.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 13.7 nT
    Bz: 12.8 nT south - with this field orientation SOUTH, the particle influx to the geomagnetic field of the earth is quite strong.

    Solar wind
    speed: 495.9 km/sec
    density: 9.5 protons/cm3 - proton count is currently dropping

  9. Link to Post #209
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    K Index has been dropping after the storm the other day that peaked at a 6. Currently the index is sitting at a 1, smooth until the next CME's particles reach earth..

    There is a LARGE geometrical Coronal Hole, earthfacing..


    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 117 sfu - is still somewhat low in microwave bombardment of the earth, despite the 7 sunspots that are earthfacing



    AR2381 has been growing rapidly and is being watched, with a prediction that M class flares will emit from that region.

    Auroral activity could be possible July 11-12 when the particle stream from the Coronal hole interacts with the earth's geomagnetic field.

  10. Link to Post #210
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Apparently now in the co-rotating interaction region - solar particle count is now up.

    Solar wind
    speed: 350.5 km/sec
    density: 16.6 protons/cm3



    no current M class flares earthfacing

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 122 sfu - microwave levels slightly up for this time of the solar sunspot cycle

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 1 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 9.6 nT
    Bz: 1.9 nT north



    A geometrical solar coronal hole is still earthfacing, streaming particles towards the earth's geomagnetic field.

    Auroras are currently NIL but could increase if the co-rotating region interaction builds..

  11. Link to Post #211
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    After passing into the co-rotating region, Auroral activity did flare, and the prediction for a continual G3 storm is possible.

    Marquette Michigan Auroral activity


    Cape Cod


    Earthfacing coronal holes have closed.

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 8.5 nT
    Bz: 0.5 nT south - allowing for particle stream coupling to the earth's geomagnetic field

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 129 sfu - microwave levels slightly increasing


    solar windspeed is increasing

  12. Link to Post #212
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind speed remains elevated as it has been for the last couple of days when earth bumped into the co-rotating region (which sparked lower latitude auroras)..
    speed: 603.8 km/sec
    density: 1.6 protons/cm3

    A group of sunspots are about to scroll off the edge from being earthfacing, leaving 1 sunspot in view.



    Radio Sun microwave still is somewhat elevated for this time of the solar cycle (meaning there is a group of active sunspots still containing microwave emission potential)
    10.7 cm flux: 129 sfu (low 90's would be more normal for minimal sunspot count)

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled


    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 4.0 nT
    Bz: 2.7 nT south allowing for particle entry into the earth's geomagnetic field

    Auroras were seen again in Canada - (Upsala, Ontario)


    Coronal holes with geometry are starting to form


    Beautiful Aurora and sky view from South Dakota, USA


  13. Link to Post #213
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Calm output from the Sun

    Beautiful Auroras on the 13th, as far south as Nebraska in the US - McMurdo Station in Antarctica had a sky show too..

    Coronal hole activity is calm, with some threads in the 'works' it looks like but nothing obvious at this point.

    Sunspot activity is minimal, and flare activity from the existing (3) earthfacing sunspots is nil.

    Antarctica

    Alberta Canada

    Nebraska


    Coronal hole geometry (nil)

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 6.1 nT
    Bz: 0.7 nT south

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 105 sfu - microwave diminishing


    Sunspots (3)

  14. Link to Post #214
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind has slowed down, sunspot count low, coronal holes nil, flares very low..

    Solar wind
    speed: 381.3 km/sec
    density: 3.0 protons/cm3



    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 100 sfu - microwave level low

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 0 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet



    no Aurora activity to report

  15. Link to Post #215
    United States Avalon Retired Member
    Join Date
    19th February 2015
    Age
    67
    Posts
    2,202
    Thanks
    7,544
    Thanked 9,600 times in 1,987 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    The coronal holes always spook me out because they look like the sun is sort of flickering, like it is thinking about going out.

  16. The Following User Says Thank You to Selkie For This Post:

    Bob (18th July 2015)

  17. Link to Post #216
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?


    two coronal holes are starting to form but are not considered "large" at this time.

    Flare activity is reported as low - there was a brief C level flare




    Solar wind speed is LOW
    speed: 285.8 km/sec
    density: 4.3 protons/cm3

    Radio Sun microwave values - LOW
    10.7 cm flux: 96 sfu - these appear from the sunspot regions - sunspot microwave output activity is low despite 4 earthfacing sunspots

    Auroral activity NIL

    Planetary K-index - geomagnetic field is stable
    Now: Kp= 1 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

  18. Link to Post #217
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar flare activity bottomed out - B class "noise" present from the fusion activity.


    and




    two sunspots

    Solar wind speed is LOW, but proton particle count is UP, as a result of having entered a zone from co-rotating fields and the remnants of a filament collapse a few days ago.

    speed: 363.5 km/sec
    density: 17.8 protons/cm3

    High-latitude auroral activity may be possible.

    Radio Sun microwave activity is LOW (as expected with minimal sunspot activity)
    10.7 cm flux: 91 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

    There are coronal holes with geometry earth facing currently streaming particles towards the earth's geomagnetic field:


  19. Link to Post #218
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    A few hours ago, there was a blip in the geomagnetic field with a Kp5 level storm - which is subsiding currently.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 9.1 nT
    Bz: 1.2 nT south orientation - It allowed particles to enter the geomagnetic field and Auroras to appear as far south as Michigan in the US.



    A large set of coronal holes with geometry are forming and are earthfacing. This will allow continued particle streams to hit earth.

    X-Ray flare levels are NIL, a very stable B level "noise" is present and that's about it.

    Two small sunspots on the edge are earthfacing with NIL microwave output



    Radio Sun microwave levels
    10.7 cm flux: 89 sfu - LOW

    Auroral activity from the Kp5 storm blip in Paradise Michigan, USA

  20. Link to Post #219
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Pretty picture of the sun, looking for coronal holes. The two active sunspots can be seen. There are 6 very small earthfacing coronal holes.


    AR2390 is currently earthfacing, and NOAA reports that there is a possibility of a small flare, although x-Ray output is showing up as minimal.

    Radio Sun microwave levels from the two sunspots is still very LOW
    10.7 cm flux: 97 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    The auroral oval is STRONG currently from the previous particle streams and solar events earlier in the week. Northern latitude skywatchers may catch a strong aurora this early morning.

  21. Link to Post #220
    Unsubscribed
    Join Date
    23rd June 2013
    Location
    North America
    Age
    72
    Posts
    6,884
    Thanks
    12,723
    Thanked 29,293 times in 6,140 posts

    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is underway on August 7th as a high-speed solar wind stream buffets Earth's magnetic field. This was due to entering co-rotating fields of particles.

    High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially during the hours around local midnight.

    Solar wind
    speed: 531.2 km/sec
    density: 3.5 protons/cm3


    Sunspot activity has been dwindling for the most part for the last month - however there is a new sunspot, AR 2396 which has just started erupting a bit, and is starting to go earthfacing.

    General sunspot map currently:



    Despite the current sunspot density, the microwave bombardment of Earth remains relatively LOW:

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 112 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    Auroral activity over the last week was LOW - (From YellowKnife, Canada)


+ Reply to Thread
Page 11 of 15 FirstFirst 1 11 15 LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts