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Thread: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Proton Count is going up and there is starting to form an earth side facing coronal hole.



    Solar wind
    speed: 307.7 km/sec
    density: 5.0 protons/cm3

    The speed isn't too fast, nor is the proton density, but the auroral oval over northern europe currently is starting to become stronger.



    The sunspot count is up, and AR2130 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. July 30th, a dark magnetic filament on the sun erupted and hurled part of itself into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory tracked a bright CME moving away from the blast site at 700 km/s. The CME is not coming straight for Earth, although it does have a small Earth-directed component. Computer models are suggesting it will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on August 2nd. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the storm cloud arrives.

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 152 sfu is up slightly and tracking the increase of incoming particles.

    Current Auroral Map:

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind speed is up a bit, but proton count is not too high

    Solar wind
    speed: 431.5 km/sec
    density: 5.6 protons/cm3


    bunches of small sunspots, with still Sunspot AR2130 having a potential for an event.

    The auroral oval is showing strong activity over Europe indicative of particle streams having been present.



    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet


    Although there are no MAJOR coronal holes earth facing, there are small holes earth-facing as shown above.

    Radio Sun - moderate
    10.7 cm flux: 156 sfu

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind speed is slow and not too many protons
    Solar wind
    speed: 399.0 km/sec
    density: 1.2 protons/cm3

    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: C1 1133 UT Aug08
    24-hr: C1 1133 UT Aug08


    Solar activity is low. Not one of these sunspots has the kind of complex magnetic field that poses a threat for strong solar flares.



    The coronal hole view is showing unusual geometry, with substantial holes, but none are directly earth facing.


    Auroral activity is low with a pretty much even field distribution.

    Overall, CALM patterns present.. (still keep an eye on the coronal holes, there is geometry forming)

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind - slow
    speed: 288.6 km/sec
    density: 5.1 protons/cm3 - moderate

    The minor CME from a few days ago, expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on August 18th did not arrive on time.

    The tardy cloud is still en route, however, and it could spark geomagnetic activity around the poles on Aug. 19th and 20th when it finally reaches our planet..

    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: B6 2158 UT Aug18
    24-hr: C1 1355 UT Aug18


    All the sunspots are in decline and pose little threat according to NOAA

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 1 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 7.1 nT
    Bz: 4.9 nT south



    No coronal holes earth facing.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind up a little bit
    speed: 336.3 km/sec
    density: 6.8 protons/cm3, slightly higher



    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: C7 1904 UT Aug21
    24-hr: M3 1331 UT Aug21

    The weak CME from the other day created very pretty auroras

    Despite some flare activity (small), none of these sunspots has the type of complex magnetic field that harbors energy for very strong flares. Solar activity is therefore low.

    Planetary K-index - a bit higher than usual
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 5.0 nT
    Bz: 0.4 nT south - the field is not as strong as it has been indicating an incoming field polarity shift


    no earthside coronal holes

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind is pretty slow and proton density is down.
    speed: 255.8 km/sec
    density: 2.1 protons/cm3

    An M2-class explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2146 has hurled a bright CME into space on August 25th at 1511 UT. Although the storm cloud is well off the sun-Earth line, our planet might receive a glancing blow on Aug. 28-29. With another CME already en route, due to arrrive tomorrow, Earth could experience minor geomagnetic storming throughout the period Aug. 26-29.

    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: M3 2021 UT Aug25
    24-hr: M3 2021 UT Aug25



    Sunspot AR2149 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares..

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 1 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 2.0 nT
    Bz: 0.3 nT north



    There are no earth facing coronal holes at the moment.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    CME of the other day is arriving and making for some beautiful Auroras:


    Solar Wind - moderate, with low proton count
    328.9 km/sec
    density: 2.0 protons/cm3

    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: B8 1846 UT Aug27
    24-hr: C4 0358 UT Aug27

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    With the charged particles, the auroral OVAL is strong and completely visible over Hudson Bay, and northern Scandinavia.



    Although there are no strong coronal holes for the small ones present, there IS geometry starting to form.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 13.1 nT
    Bz: 11.2 nT south

    (Strong magnetic field fluctuation is indicated)




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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?


    Proton Flux is up

    Solar wind
    speed: 360.0 km/sec
    density: 9.1 protons/cm3

    Particle from the previous CME's (August 27th) are continuing to trigger strong Auroras..

    Sunspot AR2146, has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. The geoeffectiveness of any flares from this region will be mitigated, however, by its off-center location on the solar disk. (its not Earth pointing



    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

    The south-pointing magnetic field has opened a crack in Earth's magnetosphere.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 10.3 nT
    Bz: 0.1 nT south


    There IS geometry present in the coronal pattern, although the holes are not large.

    A few of the Auroras:







    Last edited by Bob; 29th August 2014 at 01:18.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar CME activity from the last couple days has really kicked up the Auroral Activity -



    (Deeper Orange and bigger wider arc equals stronger activity)

    Solar wind is up in speed, but slightly less in particle density
    speed: 412.1 km/sec
    density: 6.2 protons/cm3

    Interplanetary Mag. Field - polarity has moved back northly closed the southward hole from yesterday
    Btotal: 6.0 nT
    Bz: 5.8 nT north



    Geometry in the corona has started to break up, and there are no large facing earthside holes

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm (Unsettled)

    Radio Sun
    10.7 cm flux: 119 sfu - strong activity

    Taken by Frank Olsen on August 29, 2014 @ Sortland, Norway

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind - particles are decreasing but wind speed is still up there a bit
    speed: 392.2 km/sec
    density: 2.9 protons/cm3

    X-ray Solar Flares
    6-hr max: C1 1605 UT Sep01
    24-hr: C2 0745 UT Sep01



    The spots are moving off earth-facing - Solar activity is low. However, growing sunspot AR2152 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. An eruption from that sunspot today would be Earth-directed.

    Radio Sun - about average
    10.7 cm flux: 123 sfu

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 5.4 nT
    Bz: 1.8 nT north



    There has been a coronal hole formed and is earth facing. Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Sept. 1-2

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    NEW SUNSPOTS: NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an M-class solar flare today to 55%. The likely source would be one of three new active sunspots that have rotated into view over the sun's eastern limb. A few days ago, the northernmost of these sunspots unleashed a very strong flare; because the blast site was on the farside of the sun, however, Earth was not in the line of fire. This could change in the days ahead..

    Solar wind - about normal
    speed: 357.7 km/sec
    density: 6.3 protons/cm3





    Sunspot AR2152 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares..

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 4.9 nT
    Bz: 2.1 nT south



    Two small earthside facing coronal holes, streaming particles, not excessive..

    Auroras from CME's

    According to NOAA analysts, the CME from the 2 Sept. filament eruption, will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 6th. This is not a particularly fast or powerful CME. Nevertheless, the coming impact could spark auroras. The last two minor CMEs that struck Earth in late August triggered beautiful displays of Northern and Southern Lights.

    Background on the FILAMENT ERUPTION, EARTH-DIRECTED: On Sept. 2nd, an enormous filament of dark plasma, which had been snaking across the face of the sun for days, became unstable and erupted. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast..

    YellowKnife, Canada, 5th Sept.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind - a bit fast with not too high a proton count density
    speed: 693.8 km/sec
    density: 2.8 protons/cm3



    Both AR2157 and AR2158 sunspots may evoked an X-Class flare or more. Both are large and complex.

    Radio Sun - about normal
    10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu

    K-index is still showing up as a 3 and is above minimums, but not as strong as the max potential, which would be a 9..
    The index is predicted to go up to a 5 in the next 24 hours or so.

    K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong

    K -index is based on a three-hourly indices which give a quantitative, but less detailed measure of the level of geomagnetic activity.

    K-index scale has a range from 0 to 9 and is directly related to the maximum amount of fluctuation (relative to a quiet day) in the geomagnetic field over that three-hour interval.

    The K-index is therefore updated every three hours to provide the averages. It is therefore not instantaneous, but statistical averages.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 27.6 nT
    Bz: 16.5 nT north

    The field intensity is increased, and is more north going orientation than southernly (which would have been a bit more dramatic as far as disruption of earth and satellite systems)



    The coronal display is pretty smooth - no large earth facing coronal holes exist.. there are some holes at the bottom pole as seen in the graphic.. (the sunspots can be seen as quite bright)

    The combined satellite environment graphic shows up as follows:


    Auroral activity:

    From Maine - USA 12th Sept


    From Norway 13th


    At the moment, due to the north orientation of the magnetic interplanetary field, auroras are not as bright as could have been expected, but we should wait over the next 24 hours to see what happens.

    This is the auroral oval showing regions of intensity - darker orange is stronger


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    The auroral oval is showing brightly with increases in high proton and electron activity




    There is a large coronal hole earthside facing, with expected proton streams to arrive 26th thru 27th - how long the hole and proton stream remains active is currently not available.

    Bright auroras are showing up in the higher latitudes in the Scandinavian Countries


    The satellite environment plots show the activity peaks:

    Last edited by Bob; 22nd September 2014 at 18:58.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind - moderate speed with increasing proton density
    speed: 382.2 km/sec
    density: 6.3 protons/cm3


    The sunspot geometry is a bit unusual as one can notice, a bit linear.. Sunspot AR2172 is quiet yet poses a growing threat for strong flares

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet



    An earthfacing coronal hole is continuing to stream particles. 26-27 of Sept should contain a strong particle field hitting the earth's ionosphere.

    Strong geomagnetic instability is forecast for the higher latitudes coming in the next 3 days..


    Solar wind speed is picking up:
    Solar wind
    speed: 411.8 km/sec
    density: 6.3 protons/cm3 - proton density is the same

    This is leading to a bit of geomagnetic agitation. Updated: Today at 0317 UT

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled (40-70 nanoTesla fluctuation) (this is NOT a geomagnetic storm which would start at about Kp=5

    The K-index is a code that is related to the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer relative to a quiet day, during a three-hour interval. The conversion table from maximum fluctuation (nT) to K-index, varies from observatory to observatory in such a way that the historical rate of occurrence of certain levels of K are about the same at all observatories. In practice this means that observatories at higher geomagnetic latitude require higher levels of fluctuation for a given K-index.
    Last edited by Bob; 24th September 2014 at 03:30.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind
    speed: 409.8 km/sec
    density: 6.1 protons/cm3

    Solar wind speed is up and proton count still remains high.

    The K-index is a code that is related to the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer relative to a quiet day, during a three-hour interval. The conversion table from maximum fluctuation (nT) to K-index, varies from observatory to observatory in such a way that the historical rate of occurrence of certain levels of K are about the same at all observatories. In practice this means that observatories at higher geomagnetic latitude require higher levels of fluctuation for a given K-index.

    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled


    There is a square-on earth facing which continues to stream particles towards the earth's ionosphere.

    Auroral activity remains high in the northern latitudes


    and


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind
    speed: 441.9 km/sec
    density: 5.0 protons/cm3

    Proton count is slightly down, and the current geomagnetic 'ringing' is a bit diminished.

    Now: Kp= 2 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    The 26-28th could be a bit bumpy as the particle stream from the coronal holes reaches the ionosphere.



    There is a strong earth side facing coronal hole WITH square geometry present.

    Interplanetary Mag. Field
    Btotal: 5.4 nT
    Bz: 1.8 nT south

    Auroral activity still remains strong


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    The earthfacing coronal hole is still present



    Proton density is somewhat flat.

    Solar wind
    speed: 444.7 km/sec
    density: 2.5 protons/cm3

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

    The auroral oval is moderate to strong




    Solar wind particle density is starting to increase:
    Solar wind
    speed: 415.9 km/sec
    density: 5.1 protons/cm3

    and

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

    Updated: Today at 0347 UT
    Last edited by Bob; 27th September 2014 at 04:01.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Those auroras re magical Bob. Appreciate you taking the time to post all those. Just breathtaking. Thank you.

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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Electron flux is starting to rise a bit.

    Solar wind
    speed: 391.6 km/sec
    density: 4.6 protons/cm3

    proton density down slightly, wind speed slower slightly

    Planetary K-index
    Now: Kp= 3 quiet
    24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled predicted



    Solar coronal hole with geometry still earthfacing - particle streams still expected through the 28th - strong geomagnetic activity in the high latitudes is expected over the next 24-48 hours

    Auroral activity is still high, showing up strongly in the northern latitudes.


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    Default Re: "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

    Solar wind - slowing down
    speed: 374.7 km/sec
    density: 3.2 protons/cm3 - dropping



    A set of solar coronal holes (with geometry) is still earthfacing, and streaming particles.

    There was a brief blip in both electron and proton levels, which lasted no more than an hour.



    The blip caused some minor fluctuation in the geomagnetic fields.

    This map shows where on the planet the current concentration of Electrons are located over.


    Auroras are still great in the upper Latitudes

    Last edited by Bob; 29th September 2014 at 03:08.

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