+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 4 1 4 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 64

Thread: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

  1. Link to Post #1
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    I start this thread to forecast flares and earthquakes which can often relate. We have just had an X 3.1 flare go off from one of the largest sunspots seen in years. And we have also just had a solar eclipse. So I'm starting in a new phase.

    We have a large filament which I have my eyes on but so far looks stable to me and the experts predict 85% chance of an M Class flare and 45% chance of an X class flare from this absolutely huge sunspot.

    At the moment I am waiting for it to settle down which is just starting to and I am feeling hot and flushed, perhaps another impulsive M flare but small like M2 after this settles down a tad.

    Feel free to predict as well after all We learn when we try.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	goes-xray-flux-7.gif
Views:	144
Size:	11.0 KB
ID:	27728   Click image for larger version

Name:	Global-67.png
Views:	157
Size:	43.4 KB
ID:	27729   Click image for larger version

Name:	cottrell_oct23_2014.jpg
Views:	154
Size:	404.3 KB
ID:	27730  

  2. The Following 9 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    Chip (25th October 2014), crosby (1st November 2014), ghostrider (25th October 2014), giovonni (28th October 2014), Lifebringer (25th October 2014), linksplatinum (25th October 2014), skamandar (29th October 2014), Stephanie (25th October 2014), Wind (25th October 2014)

  3. Link to Post #2
    United States Avalon Member ghostrider's Avatar
    Join Date
    6th February 2011
    Location
    Sand Springs Ok
    Age
    58
    Posts
    7,427
    Thanks
    9,893
    Thanked 28,794 times in 6,634 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    it is proven , sun spots , flares , and CME's etc , can influence earthquakes ... the undiscovered science is the thinking patterns of earth humans send out waves that also affect earth's weather and overall health , for Earth is a living being ... just like your thoughts and feelings can be sensed by animals and they react , if your in a bad mood , they feel fear and uncertainty , if your in a good mood they are happy as well ... Earth responds to our thoughts and feelings ...
    Raiding the Matrix One Mind at a Time ...

  4. The Following 9 Users Say Thank You to ghostrider For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), Fairy Friend (25th October 2014), joeecho (25th October 2014), Knowrainknowrainbows! (26th October 2014), Mark (25th October 2014), Sidney (25th October 2014), skamandar (29th October 2014), spiritwind (26th October 2014), Wind (25th October 2014)

  5. Link to Post #3
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Well, looks like we were kissing M flare level after the big pop yesterday.
    Earthquakes are high in number but staying around 5 magnitude and under so far.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	goes-xray-flux-8.gif
Views:	115
Size:	11.6 KB
ID:	27732   Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-68.gif
Views:	114
Size:	8.3 KB
ID:	27735  
    Last edited by Fairy Friend; 25th October 2014 at 12:58.

  6. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), spiritwind (26th October 2014)

  7. Link to Post #4
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Lots of energy from the baseline running in the C flares zone. Don't think anything major is happening any time soon, even the big filament seems quite stable... couple of little filaments might cause us issues later on. 85% chance of M flares and 45% chance of X Flares.

    Of course, things quickly change with the Sun. And I would not be surprised if people were feeling a little bit of shifting underneath their feet but I don't see anything major there either.

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  9. Link to Post #5
    UK Avalon Member Nick Matkin's Avatar
    Join Date
    17th March 2012
    Posts
    1,674
    Thanks
    1,615
    Thanked 5,741 times in 1,499 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    I watched a documentary "Why we can't predict earthquakes" very recently.

    From the dedication and hard work of geologists, and their drive to find a prediction method to save lives, could someone please explain how they have overlooked this solar connection?

    It seems completely unbelievable to me. And even if the sinister hand of the Illuminati (or whoever is supposedly running the world) made sure government geologists didn't make the link, many, many amateur geologists would be working on this. Any of them would love to be famous for finding the "Solar storm - earthquake link" don't you think?

    It seems extraordinarily unlikely that they have all overlooked this if there were more than random correlation, let alone causal connection.

    If there is a link which geologists and I have overlooked, I'd like to see the data please.

    Nick

    NB: Correlation is not the same as causation, but it's a good place to start.
    Last edited by Nick Matkin; 25th October 2014 at 21:00.

  10. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Nick Matkin For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), Fairy Friend (26th October 2014), sheme (25th October 2014)

  11. Link to Post #6
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    We just had I think an M1 flare.

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  13. Link to Post #7
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    looks like I am NOT doing so well we are having a huge flare now. But it was worth a try and I would like to continue trying.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-109.gif
Views:	111
Size:	9.0 KB
ID:	27737   Click image for larger version

Name:	Global-108.png
Views:	100
Size:	42.4 KB
ID:	27738  

  14. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  15. Link to Post #8
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Well, I am still feeling very energized and feeling some popping and floaty. The last flare has barely settled down but I think it will not stay so long and have another fair sized M or X flare again soon. Filament still seems stable.

  16. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), Wind (25th October 2014)

  17. Link to Post #9
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    I thought we would have had another larger flare by now. Still feels like it. Only a fair C flare showed up. Interesting pic of the sun.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-79.gif
Views:	105
Size:	8.8 KB
ID:	27744   Click image for larger version

Name:	regions4.jpg
Views:	121
Size:	217.5 KB
ID:	27745  

  18. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), Wind (26th October 2014)

  19. Link to Post #10
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Looks like an X 2 flare woke me up. And I believe another small More flare before this one.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-94.gif
Views:	116
Size:	9.1 KB
ID:	27759  
    Last edited by Fairy Friend; 26th October 2014 at 12:46.

  20. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), Wind (26th October 2014)

  21. Link to Post #11
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Here is the little M flare that came before it. No cme and that is good. Filament still feels stable. Lots of energy.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	wbf2fk.gif
Views:	109
Size:	8.2 KB
ID:	27760  
    Last edited by Fairy Friend; 26th October 2014 at 13:02.

  22. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  23. Link to Post #12
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Another M flare coming in now I think.

  24. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  25. Link to Post #13
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Okay barely an M flare, thought it was going to be an M2. loopy with energy.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-110.gif
Views:	105
Size:	9.3 KB
ID:	27761   Click image for larger version

Name:	Global-157.png
Views:	119
Size:	29.8 KB
ID:	27762  

  26. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), Wind (26th October 2014)

  27. Link to Post #14
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Quote Posted by Nick Matkin (here)
    I watched a documentary "Why we can't predict earthquakes" very recently.

    From the dedication and hard work of geologists, and their drive to find a prediction method to save lives, could someone please explain how they have overlooked this solar connection?

    It seems completely unbelievable to me. And even if the sinister hand of the Illuminati (or whoever is supposedly running the world) made sure government geologists didn't make the link, many, many amateur geologists would be working on this. Any of them would love to be famous for finding the "Solar storm - earthquake link" don't you think?

    It seems extraordinarily unlikely that they have all overlooked this if there were more than random correlation, let alone causal connection.

    If there is a link which geologists and I have overlooked, I'd like to see the data please.

    Nick

    NB: Correlation is not the same as causation, but it's a good place to start.
    It was not my intent to ignore you. But perhaps I can give you a key to the connection... it is not just solar flares that triggers earthquakes. The Earth's magnetic field points north but the sun's magnetic field is much more complicated. So it has a lot to do with it the sun's magnetics... If it is pointing south and interacts with the Earth's magnetic field, they will cancel each other out at the point of contact. If the sun's magnetic field is north they complement each other.

    So why flares relate to produce a surge or uptick an earthquakes... the important key is to look at the bz (interplanetary magnetic field) and see which direction the sun's magnetic field is pointing. If it is very south, it will cancel out at the point of contact and create a small hole for plasma, protons etc to penetrate into the atmosphere of Earth. And this causes earthquakes of higher magnitude and numbers. There is also the factor of the angle of this connection. And it's kind of a guessing game as to where these connections will occur. And how much penetration into the atmosphere will occur.

    I would refer you to suspiciousObservers for much more details on the subject. It would be nice if NASA and USGS would communicate more with each other. Great progress would be made. Hope this helps.

    edit on: you should also be aware of coronal holes being a factor of which Bob has a separate thread for those. They also can relate to earthquake activity.

    Also, to point out because this huge sunspot has not produced a cme so it keeps flaring. They tend to settle down once a coronal mass ejection occurs. So it's easy to predict it will keep flaring.

    Still way energized, hot and the popping has started again.
    Last edited by Fairy Friend; 26th October 2014 at 16:04.

  28. The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014), skamandar (29th October 2014), Wind (27th October 2014)

  29. Link to Post #15
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Another little M flare coming in.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-101.gif
Views:	111
Size:	9.3 KB
ID:	27764  

  30. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  31. Link to Post #16
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    I think we maybe even getting another x-class flare coming in a lot of energy here

  32. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  33. Link to Post #17
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Sorry only a M 4 or so.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-62.gif
Views:	103
Size:	9.5 KB
ID:	27765  

  34. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  35. Link to Post #18
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Looks like 2 M flares. And there was an M1.2 just prior to these two.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Global-124.png
Views:	123
Size:	36.2 KB
ID:	27767  

  36. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  37. Link to Post #19
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    And another one pops. I am feeling a little bit of aching pain with this one and am wondering if this has a cme component.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-52.gif
Views:	116
Size:	9.7 KB
ID:	27768   Click image for larger version

Name:	Global-77.png
Views:	117
Size:	36.9 KB
ID:	27769  

  38. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

  39. Link to Post #20
    United States On Sabbatical
    Join Date
    14th October 2013
    Location
    Here I am
    Age
    63
    Posts
    1,324
    Thanks
    5,253
    Thanked 3,602 times in 1,157 posts

    Default Re: Solar weather and earthquake predictions

    Unfortunately, I did not get to the Lasco imagery to confirm a cme or not. But I do feel some relief now. It doesn't look like a lot was ejected.
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Click image for larger version

Name:	Xray_1m-126.gif
Views:	112
Size:	9.6 KB
ID:	27771  
    Attached Images  

  40. The Following User Says Thank You to Fairy Friend For This Post:

    crosby (1st November 2014)

+ Reply to Thread
Page 1 of 4 1 4 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts