Climate change to wake sleeping dragons

[panopticon]

One of the most horrific projections of climate change have been proposed by Australian and British scientists in a new journal article in Nature today:
'Zoology: Here be dragons' by Andrew J. Hamilton, Robert M. May & Edward K. Waters

Here's the media release.

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Climate change to wake sleeping dragons



The existence of dragons and their probable re-emergence in the near future are detailed in a News & Views article published online in Nature on the 1st April 2015. The article identifies a number of factors that are likely to trigger the resurgence of these creatures, including the global economic downturn, policy changes and inaction on climate change.

Andrew J Hamilton, Robert M May and Edward K Waters describe documents uncovered in the University of Oxford's Bodleian Library, attributed to the monk Godfrey of Exmouth, which offer evidence of the impact of dragons over past millennia. They also detail further work that reveals that dragons were particularly prolific in the medieval times, due to a high abundance of food (knights), unusually warm temperatures and a high availability of nesting material (silver and gold). However, according to the authors, a decline in temperature and food availability triggered a long-lasting hibernation period in the various dragon species, beginning around the start of the fifteenth century.

The authors describe a number of key events over the past few decades that are likely to lead to the resurgence of dragons. The rise in 'quantitative thieving', the process by which failing economic policies are bolstered by the removal of the dragons' valuable nesting materials, alongside sluggish action on global warming and the restoration of knighthoods in Australia are all identified as factors that would encourage dragons to renounce hibernation. They conclude by warning that climatic conditions are rapidly reaching an optimum for breeding dragons and recommend further research into fire-retardant material and the avoidance of honorific titles.

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Comments from experts in this field indicate both the accuracy and danger to civilisation:

Dr Paul Willis is a palaeontologist and Director of the Royal Institution of Australia

"The fossil record abounds with evidence of dragons in the past and they usually appear in warm periods and/or periods of increased CO2 so it comes as no surprise that, as the planet warms, dragons will reappear."

Last updated: 31 Mar 2015 6:00pm

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Dr Andrew Hamilton is Senior Lecturer in the Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences At The University of Melbourne and an Adjunct Professor at Federation University Australia

"The phrase "human-induced climate change" continues to illicit scepticism whenever mentioned, so we will not at all be surprised that our finding that this climate phenomenon will see a burgeoning of fire-breathing dragons is treated with extreme suspicion, if not contempt, scorn, and ridicule. We don't care though: this is far too important to let ad hominem arguments distract us.

Many believe that dragons have been extinct for at least 300 years, and some even believe they never existed—despite considerable evidence to the contrary. Indeed, one of us, Robert May, stated in an article in Nature in 1976 that the typical mediaeval dragon was almost certainly extinct by the late 18th century. As John Maynard Keynes taught us though, one must be prepared to change position: 'When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?' And a fortuitous discovery by Lord May himself at his place of work, Oxford University, certainly changed the facts—and his mind. The discovered mediaeval documents provide definitive proof that dragons not only live for thousands of years but are capable of a form of dormancy, effectively a very, very long sleep.

After detailed investigation of historical climate records and millions of published books, we have found that dragons have already started emerging from The Great Sleep that was induced by the Little Ice Age. They are already starting to wreak havoc, but such events have mistakenly been reported as fiction, owing to issues of human cognition. As temperatures increase, their activity will be devastating—there is no question about this. Something needs to be done urgently. The restoration of Australian knighthoods will not help; in fact it will worsen the problem. Mediaeval knights were candy to dragons, and there is no evidence whatsoever that even St George did anything more than scratch a scale or two."

Last updated: 31 Mar 2015 2:21pm

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Dr Robert Johnson is a reptile veterinarian and is President of the Unusual Pet and Avian Special Interest Group of the Australian Veterinary Association (AVA) and the Australian and NZ representative to the International Committee of ARAV (Association of Reptilian and Amphibian Veterinarians).

"If Hamilton et al's predictions are correct, and there is little evidence to refute the facts, humans must be prepared to adapt and live with dragons. Some people may even attempt to domesticate them or go one step further and keep them as pets. As a result unique pressures may be placed upon the veterinary profession. Veterinarians serve the needs of the animal owning public and as the demographics of animal ownership change the profession must adapt accordingly (1). This has occurred recently as the profession responds positively to the rapidly growing hobby of reptile keeping. The bearded dragon, a distant relation of the fire breathing variety is fast becoming a very popular household pet.

No doubt injured or sick dragons, both wild and domestic, may require treatment or euthanasia. Standard emergency treatments may be found wanting; for instance the administration of oxygen to a fire breathing beast would be a perilous procedure. Alternative methods of critical care will need to be developed. In addition, if euthanasia is indicated the classic method of killing a dragon by driving a stake into its heart is not acceptable on contemporary animal welfare grounds, even if you are a Knight of the Realm. Blunt trauma should always be preceded by deep sedation or anaesthesia. I look forward to tending to my first dragon of the fire breathing variety.

1. Whitehead M. Enter the dragon. Veterinary Record 2011;169: 318"

Last updated: 31 Mar 2015 2:14pm

[panopticon]

Here's the journal article:

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Zoology: Here be dragons
by Andrew J. Hamilton, Robert M. May & Edward K. Waters
Nature (2015) doi:10.1038/520042a

Emerging evidence indicates that dragons can no longer be dismissed as creatures of legend and fantasy, and that anthropogenic effects on the world's climate may inadvertently be paving the way for the resurgence of these beasts.

Long considered to be the stuff of legend, dragons cross cultures and continents. Until recently, however, scant attention had been paid to the fact that the commonality in cultural representations of such creatures indicates something more sinister. From depictions in Ancient Greek literature and Slavic myth, to the dragons of the East or allusions in Zoroastrian scripture, the descriptions resonate. What if these legends were rooted in truth? The differences in appearance — some lack wings, some have multiple heads and some seem not to breathe fire — once thought to reflect local traditions, can also readily be explained by speciation.

The 800th anniversary of the signing of Magna Carta in 1215 has sparked an unprecedented investigation of literary resources from the early medieval period. One such document, uncovered by chance under a pile of rusty candlesticks in a locked cupboard marked “loste propertie” in the depths of the University of Oxford's Bodleian Library, provides strong evidence that the field of fantastical beasts requires urgent re-evaluation. Attributed to the monk Godfrey of Exmouth, the treatise discusses many verified aspects of English history but, crucially, proffers evidence that for millennia dragons have periodically been a scourge to civilizations (Fig. 1).



Dragons have somehow wormed their way into the realm of fantasy, which belies the threat posed by them in the twenty-first century.
Anderson, Wayne/Private Collection/Bridgeman Images Full Size

Further work has revealed that the early medieval period was a veritable paradise for dragons. This can be attributed to the period's unusually warm temperatures (Fig. 2) and an abundance of knights, the beasts' favourite combatant and food. It was also a time when wealth and status were measured in terms of gold and silver — the preferred nesting material for Western dragons. As a result, the major needs for living, feeding and, crucially, relaxation were readily available to dragons, allowing populations to flourish. The roasting of flesh and the indiscriminate demolition of hovels and castles became commonplace.

Figure 2: The rise and fall and rise again of dragons.


The relative frequency of 'dragons' in fictional literature (thick red line), as determined as a unigram probability4, with two historical reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature (decadal smoothing) shown in blue5 and purple6. Global temperatures have been measured since 1855 (thick black line5). Temperature anomalies represent deviations from the 1961–90 reference period. The rising incidence of dragons in the literature correlates with rising temperatures, and suggests that these fire-breathing lizards are being sighted more frequently. As a result, the large-scale 'Third Stir' is deemed to be imminent.

As Godfrey of Exmouth attests, this was an era when humanity as a whole was fully aware of the existence of dragons and all other magical beings. It is likely that the persistent antisocial behaviour of dragons, and the failure of seemingly powerful magical beings to combat the scourge effectively, led to a deep-seated antipathy: witches became kindling, wizards who dared to imagine a heliocentric Universe suffered the indignity of trial and ridicule.

The combination of decreasing temperatures and a sharp decline in the number of knights saw the onset among dragons of The Great Sleep around the start of the fifteenth century. Such a phenomenon is well recognized: many ectothermic beasts enter a period of brumation (analogous to hibernation in endotherms) under adverse food and climatic conditions. The Great Sleep coincided with what is generally referred to as the Little Ice Age (Fig. 2). Historical records demonstrate that this period was a time of relative peace, at least with regard to dragon attacks. Many believed that dragons — the fire-breathing species, at any rate — had become extinct by the thirteenth or fourteenth century1. This belief has further been extended to a perplexing level, whereby conventional opinion now holds that dragons, and indeed all other magical beings, are mere fantasy. Such a creed has been a blessing for dragons, because it spelt an end to the persecutions. Witches are now seen as crazy but harmless women, and wizards as senile old men with nothing better to do than wander around folk festivals in funny hats.

The calm was shaken briefly from 1586 to 1597 with The First Stir. Dragons behave no differently from other ectotherms in their brumation protocols, and they will periodically awaken from their slumber and check to see whether outside conditions justify ending the torpor. With their need to maintain extremely high temperatures in their buccal and nasal furnaces, it is crucially important for the fire-breathing species to ensure that the environmental conditions are energetically favourable before breaking their dormancy: there must be warmth and food. Fortunately, The First Stir coincided with the depths of the Little Ice Age and a bewildering lack of knights. Thus, the decision to return to slumber was made without hesitation. Although very few witnessed the awakenings, those who did (including some highly respected philosophers) were quick to record their astonishment in text (Fig. 2), but were immediately ridiculed by their peers and their writings relegated to the disrespected genre of fiction.

The Second Stir, 1680–90, although generally considered smaller than the first, produced similar results. Belief in dragons was virtually restricted to youngsters — who are readily ignored — and a handful of believing philosophers (scientists), who were acutely aware of how their predecessors had been ostracized a century earlier and so chose to remain mostly silent on sightings. This is reflected in the lower frequency of dragons in the literature in this stir compared with the first (Fig. 2).

The shift in societal views of dragons from reality to fantasy has been described by some as a kind of bewitchment. Newt Scamander2 suggests that there was a deliberate policy among those of a 'magical' persuasion to hide the creatures. This is thought to have taken the form of casting a neurotransfer spell that translocates all information on magical phenomena held in the brain to a small lobe of the neocortex exclusively reserved for imaginative thought. As a result, any reported sightings are almost always done under the unconscious protection of fictitious communication. (This view has been challenged in the light of other cryptozoological phenomena such as the yeti or the Loch Ness monster, although the evidence remains inconclusive and proponents have largely been dismissed as unsuitable for responsible positions.)

It would have been expected that humanity's ignorance of the dragon situation would have been maintained were it not for a combination of events in the past few decades. First, the global economic downturn has led to a rise in the search for 'buried' treasure, and hoards that serve as homes to resting dragons are an ideal way to bolster a failing economic policy. This strategy of 'quantitative thieving' is highly likely to provoke reprisals from slumbering dragons who awake to discover that their nests have been stripped bare.

To make matters worse, it seems that the 'block' on human awareness is occasionally failing, as evidenced in 1976 when a scientist (ironically, a knight and baron) published a non-fiction manuscript on dragons in Nature3. Sluggish action on global warming is set to compound the problem, and policies such as the restoration of knighthoods in Australia are likely to exacerbate the predicament yet further by providing a sustained and delicious food supply. It is now only a matter of time before The Third Stir takes place, and this, to borrow a phrase from Godfrey of Exmouth, will be the “bigge one”. Climatic conditions are rapidly reaching an optimum for breeding dragons, and it is only a matter of time before the neurotransfer spell loses its efficacy completely. Further research into fireproof protective clothing is highly recommended — as is an avoidance of honorific titles.

Source

[selinam]

April Fool??

[lucidity]

Posted by selinam (here)
April Fool??

Absolutely! :-)

[panopticon]

Posted by selinam (here)
April Fool??

And a bloody good read.

-- Pan

[RUSirius]

I'm not for killing dragons. However if society was faced with attacking dragons, does not the largely superior weaponry we now possess seem more suitable for dealing with potentially attacking dragons then say a guy on a horse with a sharp piece of metal? I'm just saying.

[t2016]

The real dust storm in China region.

Jiuquan wind gusts of up to 12 storms hit http://translate.google.com.hk/trans...ml&prev=search
Many photos in Chinese version http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/15/3/31/n4401154p.htm

[lunaflare]

Celtic folk saw dragons as gatekeepers to other realms; wisdom keepers (as the etymology of their name suggests)In essence, they were revered and respected.
Their size and majesty inspired awe and a tinge of fear (perhaps like the towering gothic cathedrals built in honour of an almighty God).
In essence, dragons are not to be killed.
nor feared
just saying....

[Becky]

Exactly what I was thinking. Nature is very unlikely to publish this as a genuine article
Edited to add, it's great fun to read and must have been great fun to create!

[MorningFox]

It's an april fools