Understanding the World Markets, how to not be a victim in the event of a Global collapse

[bearcow]

Hello all, I've noticed there has been more speculation on the forum lately that a global economic crash is imminent. While I am not expecting anything dire to happen soon, I do think that it is virtually assured that there will be at least a 20% retraction in the world equity markets sometime in the next five years.

With that statement in hand, I wish to lay out some options to the Avalon membership on not only surviving, but having a opportunity to prosper in adverse economic conditions. Wall St. makes money on the way up and the way down but with the advent of online trading platforms, the little guy can also participate and "follow the money". The little guy does not have to be left behind and can potentially secure a degree of financial stability by building a game plan that suits their need and risk tolerance. Then in turn have a opportunity to help those around you who are not as fortunate.

First off, here are some of my blanket observations in general about the world financial system.

Is the stock market and world financial system rigged? Most certainly.

However the so called "elites" are not in control of the day to day movements of the stock market and only control the market trends, much like a lion tamer can use psychological tricks to lead a beast back to his cage. Under extreme conditions of fear and greed the market can get away from what it's master wishes to happen.

No matter if it is a bull or bear market, the highs of the dot com bubble or the lows of the depression, EVERY STOCK, BOND, MUTUAL FUND AND DERIVATIVE IN THE MARKET IS INTRINSICALLY OVERVALUED. The nature of all price movement in investments is generally based upon its future growth in relationship to other investments, ie relative strength or weakness.

The Stock market, even though overvalued, generally does better as investment in the long run because a company, to a lesser or greater degree continually produces something that has intrinsic value in the function of society. Because of this, Stocks as a asset class are the best "store of value"

Although Most of the SP500 are companies who's business practices are more or less in tune with the globalist agenda, there are many companies that are trying to create products that have positive repercussions in society. These stocks often are more volatile, not recommended by the talking heads on TV and do not receive heavy investment from the major players on Wall St, thus limiting their growth potential.

The best traders on Wall St. understand the psychology of fear and greed, and will outperform Trading bot programs built upon complex algorithms.

to be continued...........

[robinr1]

However the so called "elites" are not in control of the day to day movements of the stock market and only control the market trends, much like a lion tamer can use psychological tricks to lead a beast back to his cage. Under extreme conditions of fear and greed the market can get away from what it's master wishes to happen.


this is just not true.....I follow the commodities market very closely.....and they can and have daily, manipulated the price of metals , for as long as I can remember.the market does exactly what the elite wants it to do.

[WhiteLove]

Right now the global stock markets are doing quite well, I predict it will keep climbing by +12% and likely higher, there is a very good buy opportunity right now, the Shanghai index is moving sharply higher and both Dow Jones and Nasdaq seem to behave in a similar fashion. Last October we got some shaky behavior on the global stock markets, but these have gradually faded away. If Oil company stock prices now start to fall then that could limit this upside potential, but as long as that is not happening you can expect stock prices to go higher for quite some time. This might not last that long though, large companies like Walmart have now started declining, these might indicate where it is heading next. But in the short to medium term there should be a steady rise in stock prices on most stock markets, led by tech and healthcare stocks. The US dollar has been quite weak, but in the end of November last year it started showing some signs of strength and this has continued.

Stocks generate cashflow, instead of you working for money, money works for you.

[bearcow]

Posted by robinr1 (here)
However the so called "elites" are not in control of the day to day movements of the stock market and only control the market trends, much like a lion tamer can use psychological tricks to lead a beast back to his cage. Under extreme conditions of fear and greed the market can get away from what it's master wishes to happen.


this is just not true.....I follow the commodities market very closely.....and they can and have daily, manipulated the price of metals , for as long as I can remember.the market does exactly what the elite wants it to do.

Lets take an example, the price of crude oil. The elites wanted the price to go down last year to use as a punishment against Russia. The Downward pressure is applied to Russia's stock market but at some point traders buy the dip, seeing that the Russian market is generally cheap in relation to other markets. The following chart illustrates the price of the Russian stock market and the price of crude oil the last year. (RUSSIA IS THE RED GRAPH)



As long as the normal trading range is held to under a certain level, the desired macroeconomic effect is created and there is no need to daily manipulate the price so closely.

Think about all the consensus that is needed between members of different elite families to manipulate the desired price of a security on a daily basis. In the case of Oil, the Saudi Royal Family would have shouted bloody murder if they were not given some sort of trade off to make sure they did not drastically lower oil production, and thus create a crosscurrent that would counteract the elites plans to punish Russia.


You are right, the metals market has been manipulated and the dollar propped up the last six months or so. but it is not manipulated by the elite on a daily basis. It only takes a few million dollars to significantly move futures markets one way or another, this can be done by skillful traders not associated with any agenda. For the elite to try to micromanage world markets on a daily basis would cost them too much money.

Case in point George Soros, the person most conspiracy proponents would say has the most individual influence on world markets that files a 13F, placed a 2 Billion dollar hedge against the SP500 last summer while keeping 80% of his money long equities.

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/MKTNe.../21/id/590154/


I dont know what the expiration dates on his puts were, but my guess is that he has probably lost at least half his money on that position. If the elite had complete control over world markets, he would have never started that position. He would have known the specific timing of a market crash and would have tailored his bearish bets appropriately.

He started the short position to protect the majority of his money in long positions IN CASE THE MARKET CRASHED, not the strategy of someone who knows exactly what is going to happen.

[Carmody]

the metals markets are specifically rigged and that is a fairly new aspect, with regard to daily hands on control. (general rigging has always been around)

Gold and silver are gamed via the paper gold and paper silver market, and are hammered to keep their prices down, in order to (long story short) keep the viability of the FED stable. IIRC, that is the story I recall being explained to me. A very long story in two sentences so don't pick it apart, as there is not enough there to pick apart.

[robinr1]

100 percent correct.

Posted by Carmody (here)
the metals markets are specifically rigged and that is a fairly new aspect, with regard to daily hands on control. (general rigging has always been around)

Gold and silver are gamed via the paper gold and paper silver market, and are hammered to keep their prices down, in order to (long story short) keep the viability of the FED stable. IIRC, that is the story I recall being explained to me. A very long story in two sentences so don't pick it apart, as there is not enough there to pick apart.

[Erich]

Posted by bearcow (here)
Hello all, I've noticed there has been more speculation on the forum lately that a global economic crash is imminent. While I am not expecting anything dire to happen soon, I do think that it is virtually assured that there will be at least a 20% retraction in the world equity markets sometime in the next five years.

With that statement in hand, I wish to lay out some options to the Avalon membership on not only surviving, but having a opportunity to prosper in adverse economic conditions. Wall St. makes money on the way up and the way down but with the advent of online trading platforms, the little guy can also participate and "follow the money". The little guy does not have to be left behind and can potentially secure a degree of financial stability by building a game plan that suits their need and risk tolerance. Then in turn have a opportunity to help those around you who are not as fortunate.

First off, here are some of my blanket observations in general about the world financial system.

Is the stock market and world financial system rigged? Most certainly.

However the so called "elites" are not in control of the day to day movements of the stock market and only control the market trends, much like a lion tamer can use psychological tricks to lead a beast back to his cage. Under extreme conditions of fear and greed the market can get away from what it's master wishes to happen.

No matter if it is a bull or bear market, the highs of the dot com bubble or the lows of the depression, EVERY STOCK, BOND, MUTUAL FUND AND DERIVATIVE IN THE MARKET IS INTRINSICALLY OVERVALUED. The nature of all price movement in investments is generally based upon its future growth in relationship to other investments, ie relative strength or weakness.

The Stock market, even though overvalued, generally does better as investment in the long run because a company, to a lesser or greater degree continually produces something that has intrinsic value in the function of society. Because of this, Stocks as a asset class are the best "store of value"

Although Most of the SP500 are companies who's business practices are more or less in tune with the globalist agenda, there are many companies that are trying to create products that have positive repercussions in society. These stocks often are more volatile, not recommended by the talking heads on TV and do not receive heavy investment from the major players on Wall St, thus limiting their growth potential.

The best traders on Wall St. understand the psychology of fear and greed, and will outperform Trading bot programs built upon complex algorithms.

to be continued...........

No disrespect intended, but you did not give any advice about how to prosper in those kind of environments.

First, if you have money to move around make deposits into Chinese banks. Maybe, get a small loan from one or some kind of debit card. Spread your money around.

Stop participating in the stock markets and the other financial markets and live with some integrity. Move that money into land, equipment, useful things that have a direct benefit and reflect a higher standard of values. Community farms, co ops, small, decent schools, whatever. Find out what's available where you are.

Quit wasting your time trying to manipulate oil derivatives or cocoa futures or hula hoop fluctuations. Playing that game supports scumbags.

Erich

[WhiteLove]

bearcow, good analysis. The key to understand about trading is cashflow. If you have a portfolio activity of both high velocity and low velocity transactions, you can get an accumulated return on investment that can be very good, it is all determined by the buy and sell prices and the buy and sell dates of those transactions, because the value potential is constantly in fluctuation both in absolute and relative terms and there are various kinds of returns accumulated in various ways. Some people out there are financially free just because stocks have dividends - those stocks are in such a price range, their stock count is such and the dividend yield on those stocks are such that it simply covers all of the expenses on their balance sheet whether they work or not. When a stock declines a lot, it becomes cheap, you can then acquire massive stock count on those stocks. So with a good dividend yield all it takes is for that stock to sale into a certain long term price range and you will be financially free just from the dividends. Think about that.

It is the accumulation of returns that most people do not understand what it means, getting returns as fragments is something that is difficult for the human mind to value.

[bearcow]

No disrespect intended, but you did not give any advice about how to prosper in those kind of environments.

I will get to that, It will take me many weeks to lay everything out

Stop participating in the stock markets and the other financial markets and live with some integrity. Move that money into land, equipment, useful things that have a direct benefit and reflect a higher standard of values. Community farms, co ops, small, decent schools, whatever. Find out what's available where you are.

If you have the money to support yourself, start and finance for the long term a grass roots business designed to improve the quality of life for your community, then by all means do it.

However, most people on this forum, and in the world are not in this position, they are barely getting by, working too hard and effectively living the lives of a wage slave.

The purpose of this thread is to give people an opportunity to have enough money so that they can meaningfully contribute to the betterment of the world at large. You can have the biggest heart in the world but if you work for $10.00hr at the local Steak & Shake, you will waste a great deal of your life's energy making money for someone else, helping them shape what they want the world to be, rather than devoting time to your own vision.

What is the money in your bank account represent? It is a numerical value given to represent the amount of condensed vitality you have accumulated during your life.
It is basically a energy reserve. Once people have enough to take care of their material needs then the next phase of society can begin. Human evolution will not happen unless a degree of prosperity for all is achieved. The battlefield that this struggle will play out on is the financial realm.

The world economic system is specifically designed to devalue physical labor and exalt mental acumen. The next step of this is the further exaltation of intellectual property, the monetization of thought forms. This is terrible but it is the way things are, the consensus of current world opinion. People need to adapt to the world as it is, and shape the institutions from what they are to what they can be. I would much rather the war between the have's and have not to be fought with currency, debt, and financial engineering, rather than guns and bombs.

[WhiteLove]

bearcow, this is a very good point: "What is the money in your bank account represent? It is a numerical value given to represent the amount of condensed vitality you have accumulated during your life." I do understand your perspective on it being an energy reserve, currently my perspective on this though is this but with a little twist. Since money is constantly falling in value because the elite prints more money to keep us all as slaves, then what accumulated money means is kind of nothing until you put it in relation to your increasing expenses, then in most cases it is really how much your life's vitality is condensing, how much the vitality and inspiration drops due to getting farther and farther away from freedom. For this reason we are kind of forced into maximizing the (cash amount)/expense ratio and that in turn means we have to translate the money into stuff that generates cashflow, such as investing in stocks etc. as soon as possible, to not allow the money to condense our vitality. Your point about money being condensed vitality, is a very good one!!

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by bearcow (here)
What is the money in your bank account represent? It is a numerical value given to represent the amount of condensed vitality you have accumulated during your life.

I'd put this another way. The money in my bank account is a claim on future productivity of the monetary world in which I live. In other words: Money is delayed consumption.

If I just won the lottery, I might have very little vitality invested in it; if I slaved away in a coal mine for 40 years, saving but a dollar a week, I might have immense vitality invested in it.

[WhiteLove]

Posted by Paul (here)

Posted by bearcow (here)
What is the money in your bank account represent? It is a numerical value given to represent the amount of condensed vitality you have accumulated during your life.

I'd put this another way. The money in my bank account is a claim on future productivity of the monetary world in which I live. In other words: Money is delayed consumption.

If I just won the lottery, I might have very little vitality invested in it; if I slaved away in a coal mine for 40 years, saving but a dollar a week, I might have immense vitality invested in it.

Thought provoking and interesting. It is interesting that you find money can be seen as the result of an investment of vitality that is connected to the amount of work/energy produced, I hope I understood it the way you meant.

[rgray222]

Since November 2008, the Federal Reserve has gone through three rounds of quantitative easing to help stimulate the economy. To carry out QE central banks created money by buying securities, such as government bonds, from banks, with electronic cash that did not exist before. The new fake money swells the size of bank reserves in the economy by the quantity of assets purchased—hence "quantitative" easing. Like lowering interest rates, QE is supposed to stimulate the economy by encouraging banks to make more loans. Putting $50 -80 Billion into the markets every month for that past 7 years did do a few things.

• It was the largest transfer of wealth to the rich in the history of the USA
• It did provide money for loans but mostly to large corporations
• It removed virtually all volatility from the stock market
• It has artificially inflated the stock market
• It artificially forced interest rates to an all time low
• These enormous amounts of money will at some point inevitably cause inflation
• Even critics admit that QE only only buys more time, it does not solve underlying economic problems

Quantitative Easing has not fixed anything. There will be a price to pay for pumping this much money into the markets. Now that Obama is getting ready to leave office, he going to turn off the money spickets before the next president gets into office, even if it is a democratic president. We can expect market volatility, weakness in the dollar, a declining market and higher interest rates. We will begin to see the real underlying problems in the economy. When this false fix is removed, we will be in for a very rough financial ride that virtually all Americans and many others around the world will participate in.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by bearcow (here)
What is the money in your bank account represent? It is a numerical value given to represent the amount of condensed vitality you have accumulated during your life.

Posted by Paul (here)
I'd put this another way. The money in my bank account is a claim on future productivity of the monetary world in which I live. In other words: Money is delayed consumption.

If I just won the lottery, I might have very little vitality invested in it; if I slaved away in a coal mine for 40 years, saving but a dollar a week, I might have immense vitality invested in it.

Posted by WhiteLove (here)
Thought provoking and interesting. It is interesting that you find money can be seen as the result of an investment of vitality that is connected to the amount of work/energy produced, I hope I understood it the way you meant.

I think it was bearcow's idea that money might be seen as the result of some invested vitality.

It was me who had a different view ... that money is a claim on future goods, services and productivity.

[panopticon]

Posted by bearcow (here)
I will get to that, It will take me many weeks to lay everything out

Thanks for the thread Bearcow.

I look forward to reading about your ideas.

-- Pan