Gerald Celente has put a date on the upcoming stock market crash. When?

[spacejack]

That attached PDF mentions the seven year cycle called the shemitah. And some say this is the big jubilee which is a massive reset. But I saw some stuff saying that this is the shemitah in september, and things will reset like in 2008, but the jubliee isnt until the next shemitah (2022).

You can already see metal prices tanking over the last year. This is because production from major companies is going down in preparation for decreased demands. These will start to bounce back up after christmas so that would be a good time to buy copper etc. Gold may bounce up right before or during the shemitah, like in a few weeks.

Ive been playing the stock game for a few years with sony, nvidia, tesla, and a few others. But I already cashed them all out and they all already started to drop.

There is defintely going to be a change this fall. Canadian elections are here which changes a lot for USA. Our dollar is week. And like I said, with metals dropping, its a sign.

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Just to clarify though, I dont think this will be apocolyptic times. There may be some riots, some dense poor areas may suffer, and other countires may do really bad. But in North America, I think we will just get hit like in 2008.

[bearcow]

By viewing the positive futures markets manipulation this past week it is fair to assume that the market makers are not trying to completely tank the economy right now.

I expect the market to be tepidly bearish and re test last Mondays lows before the fed meetings sept 16-17

after that, ill paint a picture of what i think are the two most likely short term scenarios regarding the markets.

option 1:

The fed decides to raise interest rates.

The bear run continues for another 10%, and will be blamed on China. The clamoring for another round of quantitative easing that started this week will grow louder. The fed will reverse course a few months later, saying despite the relative strength of the US Economy the global turmoil in emerging markets and china threaten to destabilize the usa as well, thus another round of qe is required. After this, we have a another bull run in stocks for 2-3 years until the next "crisis".

option 2: The fed decides to postpone raising rates

A new bull run will commence and take us back and probably 5 % past last may's high's. After that, i suspect we have another fork in the road moment similar to the one we are now facing in 6 months or so.

I dont think a crash is in the cards unless there is a major geo-political event that ratchets up the level of fear to 9/11 type levels.

[mgray]

I'll take door #1, Bear.

I believe we are closer to QE4 than rate hike, especially if the Fed punts on September.

[Redstar Kachina]

..........

[ThePythonicCow]

The Day The Music Dollar Died.

The US Dollar, ever since Nixon took the US completely off the gold standard in 1971, has been called the Petro-Dollar for a reason. The primary and reliable driving force that has maintained a market for US Treasury debt has been the oil exporting countries, exchanging the US Dollars they got for selling oil, for US Treasury debt.

This ended last year, as observed on Zerohedge in Nov 2014, in the article How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed.

The key chart from that article:

Various shell games of the New York banks, Federal Reserve and cohorts are keeping the game going for a little while longer, but no long term stable means to rejuvenate the US Dollar is evident.

From 1971 to 2014, Saudi Arabia and other oil exporting nations required payment in US Dollars, and reliably bought large quantities of US Treasuries with those Dollars, keeping the game going. More recently, Asian manufacturers, culminating in China, did the same.

This ended last year. China is now unloading its Treasury hoard, as are the oil exporting nations. The oil exporters are having to sell some of their Treasuries to get money to run their governments, in part because of the low price of oil.

Last week we saw a spike in demand for US Treasuries from scared investors in the stock market, which had an extreme spike in volatility. Other fraudulent schemes are being used, covertly, to shuffle the chairs on the US Titanic's deck, with massive movements behind the scenes.

The latest updates from Zerohedge on this matter:

Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar (23 Aug 2015):

Recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order.

In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous (especially if one held US-denominated assets and printed US currency) loop. That all came to an abrupt, if quiet end last year when a confluence of economic (e.g. shale production) and geopolitical (e.g. squeeze the Russians) factors led the Saudis to, as we put it, Plaxico'd themselves and the US.

The ensuing plunge in crude meant that suddenly, the flow of petrodollars was set to dry up and FX reserves across commodity producing countries were poised to come under increased pressure. For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative.

Why The Great Petrodollar Unwind Could Be $2.5 Trillion Larger Than Anyone Thinks (29 Aug 2015):

The liquidation of hundreds of billions in US paper made national headlines this week, as the world suddenly became aware of what it actually means when countries begin to draw down their FX reserves. But in order to truly comprehend what’s going on here, one needs to look at China’s UST liquidation in the context of the epochal shift that began to unfold 10 months ago. When it became clear late last year that Saudi Arabia was determined to use crude prices to bankrupt US shale producers and secure other "ancillary diplomatic benefits" (think leverage over Russia), it ushered in a new era for producing nations. Suddenly, the flow of petrodollars began to dry up as prices plummeted. These were dollars that for years had been recycled into USD assets in a virtuous loop for everyone involved. The demise of that system meant that the flow of exported petrodollar capital (i.e. USD recycling) suddenly turned negative for the first time in decades, as countries like Saudi Arabia looked to their stash of FX reserves to shore up their finances in the face of plunging crude. Of course the sustained downturn in oil prices did nothing to help the commodities complex more broadly and as commodity currencies plunged, the yuan’s dollar peg meant China’s export-driven economy was becoming less and less competitive. Cue the devaluation and subsequent FX market interventions.

~~~

Don McLean - American Pie

A long, long time ago...
I can still remember
How that music used to make me smile.
And I knew if I had my chance
That I could make those people dance
And, maybe, they'd be happy for a while.

But february made me shiver
With every paper I'd deliver.
Bad news on the doorstep;
I couldn't take one more step.

I can't remember if I cried
When I read about his widowed bride,
But something touched me deep inside
The day the music died.

So bye-bye, miss american pie.
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
And them good old boys were drinkin' whiskey and rye
Singin', "this'll be the day that I die.
"this'll be the day that I die."

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=uAsV5-Hv-7U

[Calz]

bringing tunes to the table ... I love it.

I'd post Prince's 1999 tune if only I could ... (gets taken down almost immediately)


So many ways to look at it or explain it ...yeah ... Ponzi schemes have an inescapable end.


Best of luck to those who don't have a "ticket" or cannot afford a bunker of their own.

[idiit]

saudia Arabia according to two insiders has been accepting yuan for oil for two months. basic under-pinning of the petro dollar severed.

china is now releasing their gold holdings in current fair market valuations ( paper derivatives manipulated downward valuations atm) instead of weight/tonnage. big step towards revaluation of gold as a precursor to the new gold backed yuan imo.

here's the point not getting realized yet; when the fed jumped the out of bounds lines and just started virtually creating trillion$ out of debt that no one can possible pay back they transformed the dubious frn$ fiat currency into Donald duck/mickey mouse currency. ppl don't like paying back their debts; human nature. they now have an excellent reason not to. the frn$ is not legitimate since they quit selling T-bills/bonds to foreign and domestic buyers. the current QE, TARP monetary creation mechanisms are illegitimate. the frn$ currency is now illegitimate. the frn$ debts are illegitimate.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by mgray (here)
Yes all this is historic and should be noted, but to think you can trade against this information -- or better yet -- to say a total collapse is imminent as a result and scare people not in the know, well that's not my cup of tea.

I note market events and take the tact that the conventional thought behind such market moves is wrong or at least perverted. And too that end I have stated that on Aug.1 I was out of the market and moved to cash.

No timing the top or anything like that, I said that the markets were overbought with liquidity being a big concern.

However, I put the possibility of a "Mad Max" scenario this fall of getting in a cellar bunker with an AR-15 waiting for the state militia to restore order at 0 percent.

I don't pander to sensationalism to attract readers. I don't consult with secret Asian gangs to figure out the future.

I speak daily with good people in the markets, who like you and I, are trying to get a little something for their families. They're not part of the illuminati, they trade stocks and bonds on desks at JPMorgan, Goldman and other Wall St. firms and hedge funds.

So now you know where I am writing from. It's not a deep dark bunker in Tora Bora, It's twenty miles from Wall Street and it's done to inform not to scare.

Let me come back to this post. Right now I am listening to several Doom & Gloom "The End of The World is Coming -- Real Soon Now !!" Youtube videos (well, the sound is playing in my headphones; they are hard to listen to as my mind keeps wondering off to more mundane matters.)

Your post quoted just above may be one of the most important posts to understanding our situation that I've seen.

Your post presents a reasonable, informed view that might be typical of many successful and respected individuals. Such views represent the calm, sensible views that many of the more informed citizenry hold of the Heinz 57 variety of Doom & Gloom Nutcases that thrive in the popular "alternative" media, whether yellow press journalism on newsprint, all-night talk radio, or in the last decade, the Web. Every demographic group, old, young, Christian, Gnostic, Jew, Muslim, southern hick, northern gentile, rich, poor, educated, drop-out, male, femaie, ... has its Pied Pipers, parading around with "The End of The World Is Near" signs.

The 10% of the population that is well informed, reasonably and properly dismiss such Doom & Gloomers, of whatever stripe or delusion, wearing whatever sack cloth or three piece suit.

That 99% of all the predictions of such mad fools turn out to be wrong confirms this dismissal. Well, actually, quite a bit less than 99% of the predictions turn out to be verifiably wrong. This is because many, if not most, of these predictions fall to one of the more common fallacies of scientific endeavors - they are not "falsifiable" - they can not be proven wrong because they are so confused or ambiguous that their correctness can never be ascertained, regardless of what actually happens.

As our food, water, air and medicine supplies are flooded with toxins, so are our efforts to understand. To the extent that the bastards in (and perhaps now departing) power are quite eager to amplify the flood of food, water, air and medicine toxins, similarly they are quite eager to amplify the flood of confusions that drowns out our collective efforts to understand.

Those of us, including many here on this forum and doubtless including yourself, who are genuinely interested in seeking better understanding, are in a tough battle, that goes on daily, on this forum and every where else in the alternative media and other forms of public discussion, to combat this relentless tsunami of confusions and disinformation, of buzzword compliant appeals to emotion and lunacy. You are quite right to dismiss such, and you do so with admirably respectful and restrained language.

Such battles will never end for forums such as this, which make a point of providing a platform for all who wish to speak to such topics, so long as they honor some fairly minimal rules.

Any ideas how we can better separate the (scarce) wheat from the (abundant) chaff ?

Almost none of the 90% who has not been paying attention to any of this noise will start paying attention, when and if the SHTF. Rather they will turn to the 10% more informed, the main stream media, and the recognized public leaders and institutions, for guidance on how to respond. If they don't so turn of their own accord, sufficient force, both physical and propaganda, will ensure that they do turn.

The name of the game is control. When the IMF riots come to the United States and to China, as I anticipate they will, in some form, in the not too distant future, they will likely succeed just as they have in so many other instances over the last half century, enabling the confiscation of the property, labor, resources and liberty of a nation's people.

Whatever understanding might have been found in the alternative media to counter these crimes against humanity will, once again, be drowned out.

How can we counter this?

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Paul (here)

Those of us, including many here on this forum and doubtless including yourself, who are genuinely interested in seeking better understanding, are in a tough battle, that goes on daily, on this forum and every where else in the alternative media and other forms of public discussion, to combat this relentless tsunami of confusions and disinformation, of buzzword compliant appeals to emotion and lunacy. You are quite right to dismiss such, and you do so with admirably respectful and restrained language.

Of some interest (maybe): this afternoon I recorded an interview (about an hour and a half or so) in which I talked extensively about exactly this. I may or may not publish it. At the end I felt quite discouraged!

[Carmody]

When false ponzi schemes like the petrodollar or FR system finally goes flat, people and their values 'go to ground', as it were.

In such a case as the US system, they have to go to ground via controlling reserve or..resource systems. hard things. commodities, elements, oil, gold, silver, nickel, copper, steel, wood, crops, Water, and so on. Nation building and nation continuance stuff.

Basically the computer running the show where the reboot (CNTL ALT DEL) was committed to..that computer has to be plugged into a 'hard system', that can power it.

This is part of why Canada is now so infiltrated with Neocons, anti-Canadians, and clandestine fascist organizations ..which are on the severe rise... as this appears to be part of their reboot endgame. So Harper was put in place to steer Canada into that endgame position, so it would be ripe for North American union inclusion.

What this means, is that no matter WHO is elected into office in Canada, in October, it is expected that this person will not change a single important thing, regarding that overall clandestine plan, but might make some unimportant changes, like new types of signs on the federal offices given bathrooms or what not (transgender notices, whatever). Things that people can take note of, but are meaningless.

The big clue of what comes next will be the outcome of the Canadian election and what motion and acts that the given new prime minister takes.

Essentially, Canada... even with all it's given activities over the years....Canada is a:

Vast.
Untapped.
Resource.

Basically the integration must take place before that reboot can really be laid out in motion in a way that the markets and the public can see. So pay attention to that election, and it's aftermath.

[mgray]

When your factory settings are that it's all a Ponzi scheme or the SWHTF riots as a jumping off point, it's difficult to then come to a "correct" conclusion, I feel.

Again I go back to deviations off the norm. 911 was a huge deviation, but they come about with the same regularity as a 50-year flood.

Look by beginning of 2009 we had 30% unemployment in the U.S., did you see riots in the street?

No you had Occupy (enter your city here). So why call for civil unrest now? As a jumping off point.

I work off of the premise that those who have the most skin in the game also make the rules, so simple inertia will keep the markets afloat. Bearing in mind that no chart goes straight up, you will have corrections.

Now knowing when greed and avarice are riding high, you sell your positions and await the correction to jump back in.

That's my technical analysis of markets.

Again this type of talk won't get you on the gloom and doom shows or huge hits on your blog, but I wish to inform not scare.

Case in point look back at the comments in this thread. Not many likes for my comments. Including Bill who likes every post but mine. Lol

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by mgray (here)
Again I go back to deviations off the norm. 911 was a huge deviation, but they come about with the same regularity as a 50-year flood.

Looking at the frequency of bridge collapses might give one an estimate of how likely they are, but to understand how likely it is that a particular bridge will collapse soon, one needs to study that actual bridge, and the sorts of loads on it.

Posted by mgray (here)
I work off of the premise that those who have the most skin in the game also make the rules, so simple inertia will keep the markets afloat.

Perhaps keeping the markets afloat is not what matters most to those who "make the rules".

Posted by mgray (here)
Again this type of talk won't get you on the gloom and doom shows or huge hits on your blog, but I wish to inform not scare.

Oh dear ... it seems that you really don't understand what we are trying to do here, do you.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by mgray (here)
I work off of the premise that those who have the most skin in the game also make the rules, so simple inertia will keep the markets afloat.

Here's a multiple choice quiz for you, mgray.

When will the US Dollar monetary system fail:

1. Never.
2. Someday, not soon.
3. Soon.

Your statement that "simple inertia will keep the markets afloat" suggests to me that you would answer "Never."

If so, I disagree.

Debt-based monetary systems are founded on the promise of greater return in the future for money lent into existence in the present. That is their essential nature.

They always fail. Always. One cannot keep compounding increased returns forever. Eventually the promised returns so far exceed what could possibly be realized that the promises fail (as in, for example, China, Japan and Saudi Arabia marking their US Treasuries "Return to Sender", which China is already officially doing, and which I suspect Saudi Arabia is unofficially doing, in order to balance its national budget in a time of low oil prices.)

Debt-based monetary systems always fail.

If you disagree with that, then I would posit that you are deceiving yourself, perhaps out of misguided self-interest.

If you agree with that, then we are reduced to asking when the US Dollar system will fail, which requires looking at the actual circumstances. Of course, in such a case, observing that "it's never failed yet" is of no help. Catastrophic failures of a system happen only once, for a given instantiation of such a system.

If you ask an old man when he might die, and he says "never", because he has never died yet, then he's probably pulling your leg, if not simply deceiving himself.

US Treasuries have been increasing in value (their interest rates declining) for the last 34 years, since September 1981. Rates on the long bond have decreased from over 15% to less than 3% in that period. Clearly, this trend cannot continue for another 34 years. I trust you would agree with me that there is zero chance we will see long bond rates continue declining over the next 34 years to minus 9%.

Either the US long bond will rebase itself in some new and essential resource, as when it shifted from gold to oil in the 1970's, or it will collapse. I defy you to offer any other alternative to these two.

By all appearances that I can find, the bastards in power have mostly resigned themselves to the US long bond collapsing this time around, with a resulting reset of the global monetary system. If that happens, then observing that markets will "keep afloat" may well be true, in the long term. However that would be like the residents of Dresden, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki observing in 1943 that great cities almost never go away ... they just keep transforming. Perhaps true, in the long run (with few exceptions, such as Pompeii), but the destruction and rebuilding phases can be decades of hell and hard work.

In short, and in sum, the US Dollar monetary system is failing, sooner rather than later, and this will have catastrophic consequences for many aspects of the world economic, financial and political structures, including for the "markets" you know so well.

[idiit]

Dollar ownership is the closest thing to magic slippers since Dorothy danced the yellow-brick road. Pan-dimensional advantages include complete monopoly control of mainstream media. Control of what goes into people’s minds means control of public perceptions, beliefs, biases…ignorance, and most importantly, public trust—without which the dollar has no value.

Actually, as a debt instrument, the dollar is even worse than worthless.

Pretty much every asset with which the United States of America navigates the planet is owned by owners of the dollar. Earth has been essentially corrupted into DollarWorld.

Bankula’s blood type: $

Who Owns the Dollar?

Not the United States. We rent the dollar from Bankula, the Rothschild Khazarian Mafia (RKM).

People paying attention and thinking for themselves at the same time might say right away:

“Isn’t that unconstitutional?”

Let’s check The Constitution:

Article 1, Section. 8.:

“The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defense and general Welfare of the United States….”

In Article I, Section 8, Clause 5:

“To coin Money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign Coin, and fix the Standard of Weights and measures—“

In Clause 6:

“To provide for the Punishment of counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States….”

Wait a minute! “…counterfeiting the Securities and current Coin of the United States…”—isn’t that effectively the “The Federal Reserve System’s” job description?

So how in (or from?) hell was this ultimate lifeblood of any nation state abdicated to BANKULA…?

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2015/08...resting-times/

the frn$ is invalid. all financial systems based on frn$ valuations are invalid.

all debts denominated in frn$ are invalid.

we are going to a real collateral based financial system.

paper lies from psychopathic criminals will be revealed for what they are.

this is happening now.

[mgray]

Posted by Paul (here)

Posted by mgray (here)
I work off of the premise that those who have the most skin in the game also make the rules, so simple inertia will keep the markets afloat.

Here's a multiple choice quiz for you, mgray.

When will the US Dollar monetary system fail:

1. Never.
2. Someday, not soon.
3. Soon.

Your statement that "simple inertia will keep the markets afloat" suggests to me that you would answer "Never."

If so, I disagree.

Debt-based monetary systems are founded on the promise of greater return in the future for money lent into existence in the present. That is their essential nature.

They always fail. Always. One cannot keep compounding increased returns forever. Eventually the promised returns so far exceed what could possibly be realized that the promises fail (as in, for example, China, Japan and Saudi Arabia marking their US Treasuries "Return to Sender", which China is already officially doing, and which I suspect Saudi Arabia is unofficially doing, in order to balance its national budget in a time of low oil prices.)

Debt-based monetary systems always fail.

If you disagree with that, then I would posit that you are deceiving yourself, perhaps out of misguided self-interest.

If you agree with that, then we are reduced to asking when the US Dollar system will fail, which requires looking at the actual circumstances. Of course, in such a case, observing that "it's never failed yet" is of no help. Catastrophic failures of a system happen only once, for a given instantiation of such a system.

If you ask an old man when he might die, and he says "never", because he has never died yet, then he's probably pulling your leg, if not simply deceiving himself.

US Treasuries have been increasing in value (their interest rates declining) for the last 34 years, since September 1981. Rates on the long bond have decreased from over 15% to less than 3% in that period. Clearly, this trend cannot continue for another 34 years. I trust you would agree with me that there is zero chance we will see long bond rates continue declining over the next 34 years to minus 9%.

Either the US long bond will rebase itself in some new and essential resource, as when it shifted from gold to oil in the 1970's, or it will collapse. I defy you to offer any other alternative to these two.

By all appearances that I can find, the bastards in power have mostly resigned themselves to the US long bond collapsing this time around, with a resulting reset of the global monetary system. If that happens, then observing that markets will "keep afloat" may well be true, in the long term. However that would be like the residents of Dresden, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki observing in 1943 that great cities almost never go away ... they just keep transforming. Perhaps true, in the long run (with few exceptions, such as Pompeii), but the destruction and rebuilding phases can be decades of hell and hard work.

In short, and in sum, the US Dollar monetary system is failing, sooner rather than later, and this will have catastrophic consequences for many aspects of the world economic, financial and political structures, including for the "markets" you know so well.

I will never say "never" I will say not anytime soon.

Two points: In the 70's and 80's the Japanese yen was so strong that that the Japanese were coming to America looking to buy Rockefeller Center and other iconic Manhattan properties to show they were the next financial superpower. Fast forward Japan has been in a twenty-five year recession, after Wall Street began using the yen as toilet paper for their currency trades. This is the main reason China has a loose peg to the dollar so Wall St can't debase the yuan in the same way.

Secondly, as I have written about for two years, check my posts, it is far more likely to have a global debt haircut or jubilee than a debasement of the dollar.

The US bond market of the last 8 years has drastically changed from the past. Most of the biggest players are gone, being pushed out by Dodd-Frank and Central Banks.

D-F took Wall St prop desks out of both bonds and equities. When you have players in the bond pits with an unlimited ability to buy, this can go on for some time.

Again, I may be taking the contrarian view here, but it's a buyers and sellers market. The US is still the cleanest dirty shirt in the pile, so global investors buy and sell here.

What is being posited here is that The US is the next Holy Roman Empire and that it will implode bringing us back to the Dark Ages.

Let me ask you this Paul: If not the dollar, than what? No global market has depth and breadth to provide the necessary liquidity needed. SDRs? not likely.

[ThePythonicCow]

Posted by mgray (here)
Let me ask you this Paul: If not the dollar, than what? No global market has depth and breadth to provide the necessary liquidity needed. SDRs? not likely.

As I wrote here a couple of days ago, my best guess is gold backed notes and bills of exchange (these bills being 90 day notes backed by actual product in transit and storage).

Yes, whatever it be, it will have far less liquidity and volume than US Treasuries. Yes, that implies "crunch time". Perhaps I will find Donald Trump or the Bush family moving into a used trailer, on a lot near mine (<grin> ... unlikely.)

Earlier, beginning in November of 2014, on the thread Global Currency Reset (SDR's and the New Bretton Woods; by JC Collins), I had been persuaded by the analysis of JC Collins to consider some sort of "SDR's on steroids" to be the most likely answer to your question.

But more recently, I am finding Jim Willie's analysis and reporting on current developments to be more persuasive. Jim uses the phrase "trade notes" rather than "bills of exchange", but I find Antal E. Fekete's terminology and historical analysis (to the modest extent that I understand it), such as found here or here, to be more persuasive and extensive, in the history of these matters, and Fekete uses the term "bills of exchange", which I currently find quite suitable.

Jim Willie does have a nice sarcastic response to those who doubt that China's gold and trade cannot take a lead role in providing this (much diminished) "liquidity". He finds it ironic that people figure that cannot happen because China does not owe enough. There is a key point in Jim's humor, that I suspect some listeners miss. US Treasury debt is the foundation asset of the world's current monetary system. That's part of what being the "world's reserve currency" means. The promise of the US federal government to pay principle plus interest, in a form exchangeable for real goods and services of real and expected value, is embodied in that Treasury debt paper.

That promise is breaking down.

US Treasury debt can only remain at the foundation of the world's monetary system so long as it both (1) has the volume, and (2) has the exchange value for real goods and services.

I agree with your observations that US Treasury debt still has the volume, and nothing else comes close.

But the value proposition is breaking down. The value proposition has been predicated on (1) the oil exporting nations requiring US Dollars in exchange for their oil, on (2) these nations then purchasing Treasuries with those Dollars, and on (3) the steady increase in nominal worth of US Treasuries for over 30 years now (as evidenced in the decline in their interest rates.)

Key aspects of that value proposition are coming to an end. Saudi Arabia is likely already exporting oil to China in exchange for Yuan, Iran is likely to come on line as a major exporter of oil in exchange for something other than US Dollars, and the interest rates of US Treasury debt have reached the floor of almost zero percent. Also the worth of Treasuries is being continually degraded by massive fraudulent shenanigans of the major Wall Street banks and the Federal Reserve, as they struggle in the face of major, hidden, losses, and also the volume of Treasuries held by some of the major exporting nations is on the decline, as nations such as China (officially) and Saudi Arabia (apparently) are now selling Treasury debt, not buying it.

Such changes in the dominant "reserve" currency in the world do happen now and then. At times in the past, this dominant currency has been Spanish pieces of eight, the British pound sterling, and gold backed US Dollars. Since the 1970's, it has been Treasury debt backed US Dollars. Zerohedge has a good article on this history at The History Of The World's "Reserve" Currency: From Ancient Greece To Today. No "world reserve currency" lasts forever, and a debt backed currency, due to its inherent necessity to keep delivering more value in the future (the very essence of the value of debt paper), will typically not last as long as a currency based on some inherently limited quantity, such as precious metals and/or trade-able goods in transit.

[mgray]

I am en route to my office, just now so I will get back to this shortly.

[gripreaper]

US Treasury debt can only remain at the foundation of the world's monetary system so long as it both (1) has the volume, and (2) has the exchange value for real goods and services.

Think about this for a minute, debt has become an asset in this system. Debt carries usury, and that usury is predicated upon the good faith and credit of the people, which means: I will continue to work my ass off and contribute to the system, giving most of my energy to support this system and leaving very little for myself. I will continue to extract tangible resources from the earth at an exponential rate in order to support the interest and usury on this Treasury debt, until the day I die.

When people begin to wake up to this scam and stop participating because they have nothing left to lose, and they lose it, that's when the system breaks down. During the French revolution they took the bankster tyrants out into the town square and put their heads in the guillotine.

[Dennis Leahy]

Thanks so much, to all parties, for an excellent discussion.

What really happened in 2008? (where ultimately, the average stock market investor lost 38% and the US public was told that we "taxpayers" would be bailing out banks) Was it all "flim-flam", a ruse, a magic show by the banksters proving that they can basically do anything they want and the herd is forced to follow? Or were there actually elements (housing debt bubble) in "the market" that guaranteed a "major correction?" If the bubbles (dotcom, housing) were/are real and a side effect of overzealous investors/traders buying - knowingly or unknowingly, vastly overpriced or even worthless - paper, with the built-in guarantee of the bubbles eventually bursting, then how can anyone with a modicum of knowledge in banking or trading not see the (estimated to be between 800 trillion and 1.4 quadrillion US dollars) debt bubble from derivatives as also having a built-in guarantee of that bubble bursting?

Its been said that corporate charters meets the requirements for a mental health diagnosis of sociopathy. Traders certainly must be included in this, as profits from trading transactions are the only criterion for engaging in trades - and the only metric of success. (Certainly, there are exceptions like traders working exclusively in "green funds", but I'd guess this is a statistically insignificant percentage of traders.)

Again, how could traders possibly not know the derivatives bubble is going to burst, and (if "size matters" and $800T to $1.4Q dwarf all other previous bubbles) how could traders not know that this will be far beyond a "major correction" and far beyond the 38% average loss experienced in 2008?

One analogy that I see as a possibility is that traders are lulled into a false sense of security by the regularity of the fluctuating market (ups and downs, up and downs, ad nauseum.) I lived a block away from the Pacific Ocean for a few years, and had the luxury of walking on the beach day after day. It was almost always peaceful, with a hypnotic regularity of small wave action (ups and downs, up and downs.) Occasionally, a storm would come in, and the waves pounded...but then went back to their predictable, peaceful pattern. I never once thought about a tsunami. Not once. If there had been a large earthquake offshore, and I simply stood on the shore mesmerized by the normal, regular, cyclic waves, I would have been woefully unprepared when that big wave engulfed the shore.

Is there or is there not a economic tidal wave coming (for which the earthquake already occurred?) It won't do much good to warn the people standing on the beach when all the water gets sucked-out - it will be too late to run away. The beachgoers have to depend on an early warning system. Investors* have to depend on those traders that are not sociopathic and honest, independent financial/market analysts as an early warning system.

*("investors" will be the first people impacted, but everyone on Earth will feel the financial repercussions)

[idiit]

Jim Willie: Hidden $Trillion QE Monthly Volume
Posted on August 31, 2015 by The Doc 1 Comment 607 views
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wall street is selling 1 $trillion/mth, or in other words $40 billion/day in T-bonds they do not own, do not deliver. these are called failures to deliver and this financial fraud is not covered by msm

jw goes in more detail including the new monetary alternatives.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-wil...me/#more-57445

countries around the world owe many billion$ and the usury/interest. why would they pay an invalid debt?

jw eloquently explains why the usfrn$ is illegitimate/invalid.

if you get paid on your stocks, ira's, bank accounts, etc.... in usfrn$ the payments will be in Donald Duck money ( frn$) and you won't be able to buy anything but a fake mickey mouse toy with a wheelbarrow full of toilet paper with Walt Disney ( dead presidents) faces.

sooner than later, like real soon me thinks.