Pound Falls, Volatility Jumps as Polls Show Momentum for Brexit

[justntime2learn]

"The dollar dropped a penny last week on the jobs report and the likelihood the fed won't raise interest rates. The yuan is planned for a currency devaluation in month or two and PNBC has increased capital controls on investors selling stock... That's why bitcoin is pumping more than anything. Chinese are fueling 75% of the market."

"The pound dropped to a three-week low after polls showed more Britons favored quitting the European Union, reviving concern the June 23 referendum will throw global markets into turmoil and undermine confidence in the 28-nation trading bloc.
Brexit Watch: The pound, the polls, and the probability of Brexit, all in one place
Sterling fell against all of its developed-market peers after three surveys Monday showed a lead for the ‘Leave’ campaign. A gauge of anticipated swings against the dollar in the next month surged to a 7 1/2-year high.



The Bank of England has said uncertainty surrounding the vote is hurting U.K. growth, while institutions including the International Monetary Fund and Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development have warned of dire consequences if the nation votes to leave the world’s largest single market. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the referendum is undermining confidence in the global outlook at a time when the international economy is already losing momentum.
“Today’s move was a function of reality sinking in for overseas investors -- the referendum will be a close outcome,” said Viraj Patel, a foreign-exchange strategist at ING Groep NV in London. “We’re probably seeing some of those long post-Brexit pound bets unwind.”
2009 High
The pound dropped 0.9 percent to $1.4390 as of 11:28 a.m. in London, after falling as much as 1.1 percent to the lowest since May 16. It slipped 0.7 percent to 78.88 pence per euro, touching the lowest in more than three weeks. One-month implied volatility in the pound-dollar pair climbed to 22 percent, the highest since February 2009.
The U.K. currency will trade below $1.40 in the two weeks or so before the vote, according to ING’s Patel. The “wavering” dollar makes bets on the sterling spot rate harder, and so before the Federal Reserve’s June 15 policy decision, it’s better to buy the euro versus the pound, he said.
A YouGov Plc poll for television company ITV Plc found 45 percent would vote ‘Leave,’ compared with 41 percent opting to ‘Remain.’ A survey by global market research company TNS showed 43 percent backing an EU exit, and 41 percent wanting to stay in. An online poll showed 48 percent supported quitting the trading bloc, while 43 percent were in favor of remaining and 9 percent were undecided, according to ICM.
The pound has been a gauge of sentiment throughout the referendum debate, sliding to a seven-year low of $1.3836 in February before rallying as surveys in April and May showed the ‘Remain’ camp pulling ahead.
For an in-depth look at the polls and polling companies, click here.
QUICKTAKE
Will Britain Leave the EU?
“The market got carried away with itself when it seemed like the ‘Remain’ camp were extending their lead,” said John Goldie, a senior dealer at Argentex LLP, a currency advisory company in London. “Despite the most recent polls, I still get the sense that there’s an underlying expectation that the vote to remain will win, and this could be a dangerous assumption. As we move closer to voting day, if polls continue to show Brexit in with a real chance, then sterling has room to fall further.”
The polls increase the pressure on Prime Minister David Cameron in a battle that’s split the ruling Conservative Party. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has stepped up warnings of the economic consequences of quitting the EU, while former premier John Major took to the airwaves this weekend to condemn the “squalid” Brexit campaign. He dismissed its most prominent supporter, former London Mayor Boris Johnson, as a “court jester.”
‘Con Trick’
Cameron upped the ante Monday with a joint letter signed by senior figures from other political parties accusing the ‘Leave’ campaign of perpetrating an “economic con-trick” on the public.
“If a ‘Leave’ vote comes to fruition, the pound is going to get hit very, very hard because of the uncertainty around trade, around foreign direct investment,” said Chris Weston, chief markets strategist in Melbourne at IG Ltd. “You wouldn’t want to be too long-euro assets in a Brexit, because, while the pound is the initial proxy to sell, I suspect there are worse risks to Europe longer term.”
A long position is a bet a currency will strengthen. The euro fell 0.2 percent to $1.1339 Monday, and slipped 0.4 percent to 1.1053 Swiss francs per euro.
Currency markets aren’t entirely devoid of optimism for the pound. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey puts Britain’s currency almost 2 percent stronger by the end of the third quarter at $1.47.
Even so, investors say there are other reasons to sell sterling apart from the EU vote.
“I don’t think Brexit will materialize, and the pound may relief rally after the referendum result,” said Jason Wang, chief executive officer of Singapore-based family office Stamford Management Pte. He said he would still sell the pound on any rally as the U.K.’s economic and political outlook remains bleak."


Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...brexit-favored

[WhiteLove]

Thanks!

I just looked at the markets and I cannot see any signs of very weak times ahead in the short term.

The US dollar is a bit weak against other currencies, oil is fairly strong, gold is probably in the process of spiking in the short term right now, the combination suggests the current stock market uptrend might get a momentum boost.

A couple of weeks ago we saw some weakness on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, but it turned out it meant nothing, made a profit on that.

I'm more bullish than bearish right now.

[justntime2learn]

Many Blessings WhiteLove I love reading your stuff !

Do you think there is anything to the June 23rd date or is it just that, another date?

I remembered Paul's post and should have commented instead of starting a new thread https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...June-July-2016

I'm still learning ...

[parcival]

The mighty DJIA will be up 7 straight days after today. Look out above once that S&P breaks through 2140.
I'm so bullish I'm starting to grow horns!

[WhiteLove]

Posted by justntime2learn (here)
Many Blessings WhiteLove I love reading your stuff !

Do you think there is anything to the June 23rd date or is it just that, another date?

I remembered Paul's post and should have commented instead of starting a new thread https://projectavalon.net/forum4/show...June-July-2016

I'm still learning ...

Thanks, great to hear, love to read your posts too!

I think there is nothing to the June 23rd date, it is just that, another date. The same thing about the jobless report, it was just a way to put sell pressure in the middle of a steady uptrend.

Currently I find that the stock markets have a bullish behavior, not super bullish, but bullish. The markets have been moving precisely as I've expected, I think you'll soon going to see something like +2,5% on Nasdaq, with some tech stocks advancing more than +6% on a single day. What I am seeing is that someone is in the process of putting sell pressure on a number of pretty heavy stocks, I think they will very soon re-enter the markets with a very heavy bull position. As soon as Shanghai Stock Exchange does something like +1,5% on a single day, the gold will be weak and we are going to see the momentum I mentioned. There are some great prices out there right now.

BTW. Just read about a story that if it is true it will probably shake the stock markets a bit. Check this out.

[AutumnW]

White Love,

What is your take on commodities right now? I've been reading a lot about global drought being part of a long term problem and am thinking the price of agricultural commodities is going to enter a very long term bull market.

Then I wonder about the ethics of entering into a market that may create even higher basic food prices, just due to the piling on effect, once it's clear that we could be facing a food crisis. The speculative excess in the oil markets, prior to it's collapse from 147.00 per barrel to 35.00 per barrel, is a case in point. And If I remember correctly commodities were also much higher at the time

So I guess I am asking you to comment on the ethics of engaging markets -- making money through dynamics that could cause others serious deprivation.

Oh, and one more question....will nation states allow basic wheat, rice etc...to go sky high without interfering?

[AutumnW]

The date is interesting. The number 23 is enigmatic and coincidences and synchroncities associated with it have deep almost mystical significance.

[parcival]

WhiteLove, this is all anyone needs in order to understand our "markets". The game is fully automated and all buying and selling is done by algorithms.

The markets will not be allowed to fall over any long periods due to Executive Order 12631, signed March 18, 1988 by US President Reagan. It's illegal for the markets to fall. It's LAW that equities, ETFs, Bonds, and US Treasuries, are to be regularly bought by the taxpayers to support the markets.

How people don't understand this by now is fascinating to me.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Workin...ancial_Markets

[Althena]

Run Great Britain, and don't look back. The EU is a failed project. Most of the older people I know are all voting to get out.

[WhiteLove]

Posted by AutumnW (here)
White Love,

What is your take on commodities right now? I've been reading a lot about global drought being part of a long term problem and am thinking the price of agricultural commodities is going to enter a very long term bull market.

Then I wonder about the ethics of entering into a market that may create even higher basic food prices, just due to the piling on effect, once it's clear that we could be facing a food crisis. The speculative excess in the oil markets, prior to it's collapse from 147.00 per barrel to 35.00 per barrel, is a case in point. And If I remember correctly commodities were also much higher at the time

So I guess I am asking you to comment on the ethics of engaging markets -- making money through dynamics that could cause others serious deprivation.

Oh, and one more question....will nation states allow basic wheat, rice etc...to go sky high without interfering?

When it comes to commodities I think one should be a bit careful about oil, I think it is a bit late to take a position in that now. Gold on the other hand is bit by bit starting to look surprisingly strong (I no longer think it is going to top in the short term) and there is a possibility that investors are going to start selling oil and buy gold instead, so I would definitely focus more on gold at this point although in the short term oil could still gain some. Coffee also looks pretty interesting, it gained more than +5% today, that's a sign of strength. So I agree with you that commodities might be in a bull market for some time. Commodities have been rather strong lately and I think that is one reason why the current stock market uptrend is a bit weak - many investors find commodities more attractive right now. Another reason why the uptrend is a bit weak is because there are some major stocks being trashed as hard as possible in the short term (long-short-long cycles), but that I think will fade within a week, at some point I think it is going to switch into increased momentum in the uptrend when the prices have dropped so much that investors exit their short positions and switch to long positions instead. The stock markets have been contracting a little lately in terms of momentum, if gold keeps becoming much stronger, there is a risk that the stock markets are going start a downtrend, but I think it's a bit early for that now, that depends quite a lot on what is happening in China. I'm still waiting for a strong day on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, could happen any day now. I think that will release the other stock exchanges a little and add upward momentum to the current uptrend, maybe slow down the oil uptrend a little and make it top.

Psychologically I think traders are overall a bit concerned about what's coming around the corner. The markets have been rather bullish for quite some time now and clouds might start to form due to great political and economic changes ahead. The fact that gold is this strong indicates that many investors find a protective strategy to be good now. The combination means that the markets could slowly bit by bit followed by some triggers run into a hurricane later this year. The markets are a bit tricky because on one hand there are no clear signs of weakness, but on the other hand there is a lot of uncertainty clouding the markets which impacts on the momentum of the uptrend. I don't think investors are going to hold their long positions in such a climate forever, sooner or later they are going to sell at the current price and move on to more attractive positions, which is going to form a sell pressure.

[AutumnW]

WhiteLove

Thank you for the thoughtful,response to my questions. I have been eying gold after selling all of my bullion a couple of months ago. I am ready to buy back in, ASAP. I will have that opportunity within the month. I was a bit chastened though, when reading a post from Charles Hughes Smith, a couple of days ago, about how well bitcoin is performing in Venezuela.

Then I have to reflect on Catherine Austin Fitt's recommendations as well. She used to be a 'gold bug' but now is more sceptical that gold will be as important in the future, as I (and she) had thought.

She feels after acquainting herself with the Break Away Civilization information that the Anglo American financial bloc is vying for control of financial systems through their leg up over other powers, above the stratosphere, through their satellite systems. She feels that rather than things 'falling apart' and gold taking off, that some kind of crisis may provide impetus for the implementation of a digital currency system.

When I read that about Venezuela, it gave me the feeling that, yes, this might be the case. I will still buy some gold, as a kind of insurance, but not as much as I had planned.

[WhiteLove]

Posted by AutumnW (here)
WhiteLove

Thank you for the thoughtful,response to my questions. I have been eying gold after selling all of my bullion a couple of months ago. I am ready to buy back in, ASAP. I will have that opportunity within the month. I was a bit chastened though, when reading a post from Charles Hughes Smith, a couple of days ago, about how well bitcoin is performing in Venezuela.

Then I have to reflect on Catherine Austin Fitt's recommendations as well. She used to be a 'gold bug' but now is more sceptical that gold will be as important in the future, as I (and she) had thought.

She feels after acquainting herself with the Break Away Civilization information that the Anglo American financial bloc is vying for control of financial systems through their leg up over other powers, above the stratosphere, through their satellite systems. She feels that rather than things 'falling apart' and gold taking off, that some kind of crisis may provide impetus for the implementation of a digital currency system.

When I read that about Venezuela, it gave me the feeling that, yes, this might be the case. I will still buy some gold, as a kind of insurance, but not as much as I had planned.

To me that kind of Gold position makes sense. The Tech stocks got slammed pretty hard today, it's going to be interesting to see how the Shanghai Stock Exchange performs on Monday, if it performs well I think it's going to drive Nasdaq much higher on Monday because there are quite a lot of stocks now that have been sold down to pretty interesting price levels. Oil has now started weakening, it's difficult at this point to predict whether that is temporary or not, but I can understand those investors that sell their oil positions now, they can re-enter at a lower price level or just buy something else, it secures their gains, provides them more and better options and they can profit a bit from the stronger dollar as well. I think some of those might be investing in some of the Tech stocks next week that have been slammed hard lately.

[norman]

Posted by Althena (here)
Run Great Britain, and don't look back. The EU is a failed project. Most of the older people I know are all voting to get out.

hah... they might not have poisoned and killed off enough of us who can still remember when Britain wasn't even IN the EU.

[Althena]

Posted by norman (here)

Posted by Althena (here)
Run Great Britain, and don't look back. The EU is a failed project. Most of the older people I know are all voting to get out.

hah... they might not have poisoned and killed off enough of us who can still remember when Britain wasn't even IN the EU.

Mind you most of the people I know are farmers and they've had it with the rules and regs Brussels imposes on them.

[AutumnW]

Those who live in Britain--what do you think was the main reason for Britain joining the EU. Was the public consulted through a referendum?

What factors, do you think, will be the straw that breaks the camels's back, if you choose to exit?

[norman]

I have a nagging feeling that "exit" ain't going fix a thing, but I emotionally want to vote against what I sense is what the "bad-guys" want us to do.

I also have a hunch that they will fiddle the vote if we really do outnumber the plebs.

I'm a farming kind of of guy too, in my background. I sense that the really big industrial farmers are quite happy with the rigged ethics of EU. It's family farmers that have been screwed the hardest by it, even though they initially had money thrown at them to make them drunk with carelessness. Carelessness, that's what's got us into this mess, the world over.

You ask why we joined in the first place. Well, it was a sneaky trick really. The Prime Minister, at the time, Edward Heath, was a blackmailed Pedo' who saved his own skin conning us into it by lying and telling us it was just a trade deal called the "Common Market". The Federation only raised it's ugly head well after we'd had the honeymoon and produced offspring from the union.

Those offspring, in the traditional sense of "go forth and multiply", are now going to most likely outnumber us and vote to make us stay with their dodgy mother they still 'love', just because she's their "mum", even though she's a complete conning bast**d who doesn't deserve a cent or a heart beat of our genuine 'love'.

Sure, I'm a progressive, I say move on, without that blood sucking beast that screwed us.

Will it really happen, I doubt it, the pack is rigged, as I think it was with the Scottish independence vote 2 years ago too.

I just had a email natter with a Scottish woman I know who got it touch to ask me about all this and what I think. She's aware that a lot of Scottish folk are thinking that they need the EU to act as a counter balance against London rule. I can see that point, but really hope they don't all vote in that way for that reason.

[Althena]

The EU is going the way of the pig farmers in the UK, all the way down until nothing is left. I know Brits that are eating Danish bacon in England, that's just sad and wrong. I think you know what I mean norman.

[AutumnW]

Althena,

I agree with you. It's totally wrong. A system of trade tariffs based around loyalty to one's country and or region, is called for.

[avid]

What about this take?
https://birdflu666.wordpress.com/201...s-and-his-ilk/
Soros and the rest will stitch UK up so as not to leave, despite voting otherwise.
Jane Burgermeister is still posting from Greece.

[Verdilac]

Posted by AutumnW (here)
Those who live in Britain--what do you think was the main reason for Britain joining the EU. Was the public consulted through a referendum?

What factors, do you think, will be the straw that breaks the camels's back, if you choose to exit?

Living in Britain at the moment and reading the mood and the tactics of the media, what is coming across is to baffle the public with horror stories & scare tactics.

The reason they want Britain in is the interdependency on member states with each other, or you could say, if you tie everyone up the same way then the boat doesn't rock.

If I can give you an example of the abuse of interdependency from a nutritional perspective as touched on by others . You can go into a supermarket today in the UK & by food that states that it is manufactured in the EU and that's it, and I do mean that's it. No traceability, nothing and so when Britain stays in the EU or not ! you may find a little know commission called Codex Alimentarius will be at the forefront of the entire EU's food chain and you may really see some changes, possibly for the worst.

On a related note I can honestly say there will be people turning out to vote not knowing which way they will go till they enter the polling booth because of the torrent of half truths, down right lies and unrelated personal trivia that just confuses & baffles .

And yes we have been beaten over the head with the threat of the pound being devalued for months now, so this latest announcement has been on the cards for a while.
Would you believe the media pushed the main disadvantage of this being that it would cost UK residents more to go on holiday.