The UK Brexit vote to leave the EU

[scanner]

Posted by greybeard (here)
Respectfully scanner--Have you ever been self employed?
Chris

I've been running my own business for forty years Chris. The only people who want to stay in the EU is the people with vested interests in there.

[greybeard]

Angela Merkel is right. The UK is now the EU’s ‘competitor.’ It is not a fight the UK can hope to win

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/angela-mer...122200229.html

Whether the UK leaves the EU by Boris Johnson’s artificial deadline of 31 October only matters only if you are interested in the terrifying egos of Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings.

But the clearest sign that the exit is nearing, be it on that day or by way of some kind of technical extension, came from Angela Merkel on Sunday.

“With the departure of Great Britain, a potential competitor will of course emerge for us,” she said. “That is to say, in addition to China and the United States of America, there will be Great Britain as well.”

It is a reminder that, once Brexit happens (if Brexit happens), it will return again to the beginning.

When a referendum on EU membership began to feel imminent, in the autumn of 2015, around pub tables and lunch tables and in the corridors and ante rooms of Westminster, MPs, analysts, civil servants, think tankers, journalists and indeed everyone all made, almost in unsion, the single most important argument in favour of remaining.

They will punish us. They will make an example of us. They will not allow a British exit to incentivise others to do the same.

The following spring and summer it was, perhaps, unfortunate, that this argument was not made by the Remain campaign with the force that it should have been. You can understand why.

“They will screw us if we leave,” is a difficult way to make the case for remaining in a union with, well, the would-be screwers.

If the UK does indeed leave in the next few weeks or months, what is not clear is whether the public conversation will move on. The trade talks will be brutal, and of crucial importance for national prosperity, but they are also knotty, dull and whole orders of magnitude more complex than anything like the Irish backstop.

There are many Westminster watchers who think the subject will, comparatively speaking, go away.

But the truth of the matter will remain. The EU will indeed have a competitor, right on its doorstep. The EU is ruthless at protecting its interests. It is a powerful union. It is through the power of the EU that little old Ireland now gets to tell the UK what to do. A novel experience.

Merkel’s comments have been received, in the usual quarters, as an affront to Britain. Never mind that the EU, and Merkel in particular, have been paragons of diplomacy and restraint as the UK has had a very public nervous breakdown over the last three years, the House of Commons arithmetic making it impossible for the country to reach an agreed position on a question that has hopelessly divided it, and is likely to do so for decades to come.

The now prime minister, Boris Johnson, has on several occasions likened the European Union to Nazis, a staggeringly crass and unforgivably offensive thing for an aspiring statesman to say. Such remarks have been met, in the most part, with bitten lip.

But she is right. As the UK toys with threats about becoming “the Singapore of Europe,” deregulating and cutting taxes to lure business away from Europe, the EU would be mad not to consider the reality of a competitor on its doorstep.

She is also right to compare the UK with the US and China. The UK is dysfunctional, unreliable, unstable and untrustworthy. For months now, it has threatened the EU with no-deal Brexit. No deal threatens thousands of jobs, in France, in the Netherlands and elsewhere. It is not the EU’s decision.

In a few weeks time, the UK may elect a prime minister who, as recently as 2012, at the tender age of 63, wrote newspaper columns arguing for the UK to pull out of Nato, and has suggested Britain’s armed forces should be disbanded.

Just as Trump has abandoned Nato’s Kurdish allies to attack from Turkey, in a move in which Vladimir Putin is the only beneficiary, so too the UK has become a partner on whom the EU, and the world, cannot rely. It would be irresponsible of Angela Merkel, and others, to not consider how it should respond to such a reality.

Brexit is regularly sold by Brexiteers as the opportunity to “rekindle old friendships”, to return to the Commonwealth and, that imagined thing, the “anglosphere.” It is all unhinged, but even on the most generous reading, the facts of the matter are that, in the last 40 years, the world has moved on. Old friends, like New Zealand and Australia are far, far more interested in opening trading relationships with the EU’s colossal single market, than they are with the UK’s comparatively small one.

In my very humble opinion, the most fair minded, least contentious summary of the decision to leave the European Union is that the UK joined a trading trading bloc in the 1970s, and since then has watched it turn into an overtly political organisation, with a parliament, a president, a court and a mission statement for further integration. In June 2016, it chose a different path.

But it did so for political reasons. All of the pro-Brexit trade arguments are a red herring, dreamt up by longstanding Eurosceptics as a way to win a political argument. The idea the UK economy was somehow trapped or constrained by EU membership is daft.

Fair-minded Brexiteers should acknowledge there is no credible economic case for Brexit, certainly not in the short to medium term.

The problem, in the years ahead, is that the political case, as outlined above, was most keenly felt by a generation who watched that change happen. The younger generation, who will suffer most, in the short to medium term, from the inevitable economic consequences of Brexit, were also the least persuaded by the political gains.

This is a vicious problem the country will have to try and manage in the years ahead.

The EU has a new competitor. And it is not quite like the US or China. It is substantially smaller. It will be fighting a losing game, not least as it is a fight that at least 48 per cent of the country (drastically higher if you include the EU nationals that live in it, who did not vote), wants no part of.

The cards are stacked heavily in the EU’s favour. Life as the EU’s newest competitor, rather than its economic partner will be a far tougher fight than anything that has come to pass in the last three torturous years.

[araucaria]

Posted by scanner (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
Respectfully scanner--Have you ever been self employed?
Chris

I've been running my own business for forty years Chris. The only people who want to stay in the EU is the people with vested interests in there.

You give your age as 43. It must have been very hard starting out at the age of just three...

[scanner]

Posted by araucaria (here)

Posted by scanner (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
Respectfully scanner--Have you ever been self employed?
Chris

I've been running my own business for forty years Chris. The only people who want to stay in the EU is the people with vested interests in there.

You give your age as 43. It must have been very hard starting out at the age of just three...

Sometimes OPSEC rules.

[araucaria]

Posted by scanner (here)

Posted by araucaria (here)

Posted by scanner (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
Respectfully scanner--Have you ever been self employed?
Chris

I've been running my own business for forty years Chris. The only people who want to stay in the EU is the people with vested interests in there.

You give your age as 43. It must have been very hard starting out at the age of just three...

Sometimes OPSEC rules.

So, you claim a good excuse for making incompatible statements. But of course this would also cast doubt on the reliability/sincerity of any opinions you may put forward. And of course you are not alone. Bad faith negotiations accompanied by bad faith public debate, definitely the way to go.

[greybeard]

Honest what suits one business will not suit another.
Those that represent business and unions now say leaving without a deal a bad, bad idea.
So many now against leaving and giving facts and figures.
How can Boris be trusted--the leave campaign was founded on a selling campaign where the truth went out the window and that is a fact.
Im no saying leaving with a good deal a bad idea--what Boris negotiators are up against is all the EU countries solid in agreement---that gives a good hint of what is to come if we leave.
UK is a business--thats where everyone's income comes --the tax that pays for everything.
So we fall out with our biggest customer--what then?
There is strength in unity.
The SNP not stupid--they are looking to keep the benefits derived from biggest customer.
Era has done remarkably well out of membership.

Chris

[scanner]

Posted by araucaria (here)

Posted by scanner (here)

Posted by araucaria (here)

Posted by scanner (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
Respectfully scanner--Have you ever been self employed?
Chris

I've been running my own business for forty years Chris. The only people who want to stay in the EU is the people with vested interests in there.

You give your age as 43. It must have been very hard starting out at the age of just three...

Sometimes OPSEC rules.

So, you claim a good excuse for making incompatible statements. But of course this would also cast doubt on the reliability/sincerity of any opinions you may put forward. And of course you are not alone. Bad faith negotiations accompanied by bad faith public debate, definitely the way to go.

I claim nothing, you assume too much and give me credit I do not deserve. However, if you'd have done a modicum of research you would have read on my profile, I was 43 eleven years ago. And, when Bill and Kerry started this site up, it would have been scrutinized, by tptb because of the very nature and it's content. Many ex members, I'm still in contact with, didn't give all their detail accurately. Again just a quick check on any search engine, would tell you what OPSEC is. So at the time of becoming a member, OPSEC, was uppermost in my thoughts and may of not recorded my details accurately. I, unlike France (if that is where you truly are), am not worried about the Brexit outcome whichever way it goes. Yes I'm a Brexiteer and proud of it, however, I will still be here, if we stay in the Dictatorship and enslaves completely. I do what I do for my Children/Grandchildren. I don't want EU shackles at their feet because I didn't lay down and gave up, unlike some of my countrymen.

I feel, we've move away from the issue and off topic somewhat, which is Brexit. So I'll get back to Chris and his question. Yes it will affect many businesses. Over the years I've had to diversify many times. 2008 when the financial crash happened nearly saw me off, but I and many like me survived, as they will when we leave. Adjustments will have to be made. But opening markets will present themselves and ripe for the picking.

[greybeard]

I wish you every success scanner regardless of the end result.
Business people are resilient--they have to be.
Being self employed is not for the faint hearted.

Chris

[scanner]

Posted by greybeard (here)
I wish you every success scanner regardless of the end result.
Business people are resilient--they have to be.
Being self-employed is not for the faint-hearted.

Chris

Thanks Chris. Any good business, worth their salt, would have prepared themselves three years ago, either way and employed the right management team to see them through. Instead of the EU legislation which is very restrictive they have to work under now. No matter what, I hope WE all have a brighter and prosperous future.

[araucaria]

Scanner, I was working on the basis of your good faith until you posted a discrepancy that the non-member majority of readers could easily pick up. Any doubt comes from your own words. But you obviously get the benefit of the doubt. So we may or may not infer that you are 54 now and in business since you were about 14, still very impressive. It is important to know where people are coming from in order to assess their ideas. We have to deal with white lies all the time but I find it truly helps to avoid even those. Yes, I am in France: there is nothing in my 5K posts to suggest otherwise. Unlike mine, your suggestion is groundless.

But let’s forget all that, this is not about you or me. It is about the bona fide status we generally grant people as a default position, including the likes of Boris Johnson, notorious for his many huge lies and promises that cannot all be delivered. The EU can talk with him until the cows come home, but the bona fide rule continues to apply. A deal is no more than another set of promises that all have to be deliverable together. Deciding they can and must all be kept and signing up for it is no protection against their selective application. At no point can the EU walk away from a deal simply by stating Johnson is in bad faith. We all know he is being duplicitous in terms of his language, but when it comes to public acts it is all in the future – meaning that there are no preventive measures to stop him, he can only be caught when it is too late and the damage has been done. He will come away with a Brexit deal simply by agreeing to whatever it takes; everyone will come away outwardly satisfied and inwardly dreading the inevitable consequences.

How to deal with a psychopath: the only known method is to step away. At this level that would seem impossible. Preparedness is not an option: even at this late hour, we don’t know exactly what the putative Johnson deal is going to involve. Calling in a management team three years ago would likely have been a huge waste of cash that many small businesses don’t have anyway.

[scanner]

A misunderstanding on my part, my apologies. I'm a lot older than 54 lol and started my business when I was 24 yrs old. You, and tptb now know my true age. I don't have an opinion on BOJO, or any politician now. They have all proved themselves liars and are untrustworthy. What they have done, deliberately or not, is destroyed any confidence for 17.4 million voters, never to vote again. Our elected leaders, have become our masters. It will be very interesting at the next general election, whenever that may be.

[greybeard]

At least we are having a conversation about this and background is realitive.

I started filling bags of sugar in my parents corner shop when I was about eight.
Inherited the shop which nearly went bankrupt with the abolished retail price maintenance--became a driving instructor for twenty year, became a therapist--most of this time playing semi pro in groups.

Bought an ailing small residential home for the elderly--which became popular--new rules forced selling on to a charity, escaped by the skin of my teeth and one broken marriage and health ruined.

During that time I became local chairman of The FSB (Federation for small business) so i had to handle rules and regulations big time.
While it could be said they came from the EU the truth is that the civil service counterpart copper plated the rules.

I will give an example -- I had to read several pages health and safety before it dawned on me they were about a hospital style bed--it had to be this and that no mention that it was in fact a bed till near the end.
So what had been one page from Brussels became four pages of detailed nonsense.

So EU gets the blame for a lot of rules and regulation--some of which are sensible health and safety to protect the work place people and everybody else--when in fact our civil service are as much to blame--its a two way street.

I could not afford to employ staff to cope with our Government changes which forced the near closure of my business. Nearly seventy thousand small residential care homes closed through a Government act.
Care in the community is a joke--the government wont pay for it then blame the care sector.
The rate for a resident was £215 a week--you cant get B&B for that far less 24 hour care with three meals a day.
Nothing to do with EU rules solely down to a Tory Government about twenty years ago.
I quit.
Sorry for a seeming rant but--just pointing out the falicy of being ruled by EU.
Uk Gov just as bad with rules an regulations.

Chris

[Matthew]

Two updates from Jeff Taylor today 15 days to Brexit day

Boris Johnson will like these poll results!

Is Boris Johnson Really caving in to a Brexit Extension?!

But I will leave you with the latest from Mahyar Tousi

Boris Blocks Second EU Referendum

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=EiBZX-TTjAE

[greybeard]

Regardless its catch 22.
The border situation can not be resolved with the DUP objections.
Exiting without a deal would breach the agreement keeping Irish border open.
The other big challenge is the tariff situation---our products going into EU, our biggest customer, would be at a much higher rate, as would incoming goods.
Getting a deal approved by Parliament and DUP seems a non starter
So I suspect that we will remain a member of EU.

Chris

[greybeard]

Boris Johnson has struck a Brexit deal with the EU
Yahoo News UK Yahoo News UK THURSDAY --OCT 17TH


https://uk.yahoo.com/news/boris-john...094021311.html


Boris Johnson has struck a new Brexit deal with the EU.

The Prime Minister tweeted on Thursday morning: “We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control — now Parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment.”

EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the deal was a “fair and balanced agreement” and urged the EU Council to back it.

In a letter to European Council President Donald Tusk, Mr Juncker wrote: “While I deeply regret the outcome of the referendum of 23 June 2016, I continue to believe that the European Union is best served by an orderly and amicable withdrawal of the United Kingdom from our Union.

“Our hand should always remain outstretched as the United Kingdom will remain a key partner of the European Union in the future.”

The pound surged on the news the Prime Minister had agreed a new deal.
What happens next?

The Prime Minister now faces the enormous challenge of persuading MPs to back his revised deal.

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) have not yet got behind Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal, saying this morning: “As things stand, we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues, and there is a lack of clarity on VAT.”

The DUP objects to the idea of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, as well as the issues of consent regarding the suspended Stormont Assembly.

Another major issue in the PM’s proposals are whether EU VAT rates would apply in Northern Ireland.

The PM, who does not have a majority in Parliament, relies on the votes of the 10 DUP MPs to pass legislation. The Northern Irish party also influences the voting of the ERG, the hard Brexiteer group of Conervative MPs.

In order to get his deal through Parliament, Mr Johnson will also need to backing of a number of Labour MPs, as well as the 21 former Conservatives who were expelled from the party after voting to block no deal.

MPs will vote on the deal during an emergency session in the House of Commons on Saturday.

If Parliament fails to approve the deal, the PM is legally obligated to request a Brexit delay.

The EU Council also needs to approve the deal during a two-day summit in Brussels that began on Thursday morning.
What is in Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal?

It is understood the UK and EU agreed a final draft of a Brexit deal after a last-minute concession by Boris Johnson over the issue of the Northern Irish border.

The Prime Minister had initially been set a deadline of midnight on Tuesday to get a fresh agreement ahead of a crunch summit of EU leaders on Thursday and Friday.

Negotiators finally reached a consensus on Thursday after last-ditch talks.
Britain's Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay poses with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier ahead of a meeting at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium October 11, 2019. Francisco Seco/Pool via REUTERS
Britain's Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay poses with European Union's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier last week. (Reuters)

The Prime Minister agreed to the EU’s proposal of a customs border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK - a proposal initially offered to Theresa May that she rejected on the grounds that it amounts to the break-up of the union.

Mr Johnson had already also accepted that Northern Ireland will remain in the EU’s single market for goods, although it is seeking to find a way to time-limit the arrangement.


Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay confirmed on Wednesday that Mr Johnson would abide by the law requiring him to delay Brexit if Parliament rejects a deal, which was brought in by MPs seeking to block a no-deal Brexit.

“I can confirm, as the Prime Minister has repeatedly set out, that firstly the Government will comply with the law, and secondly it will comply with undertakings given to the court in respect of the law,” he said.

Mr Barclay confirmed that the Government “will abide by” what is set out in that letter, following fears the PM could try to scupper an extension with a second contradictory letter or request to a member state to block an extension.

[greybeard]

There is hope--fingers crossed.
Chris

[Matthew]

Jeff Taylor again with his update 14 days to deal/no deal/dead in a ditch ...Brexit day

Are Remainers about to crush their own anti-Brexit case?!

I just have to ask this, in their desperation to stop Brexit in any form, are the Remainers just about to destroy their own case?

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=v3qCdczF4OQ

[Matthew]

Mahyar Tousi gives his take on Boris' deal, posted one hour ago.

Tomorrow this report will likely be out of date! for better or for worse things are continuing to move at a fast pace

Brexit Date Confirmed: UK Leaves EU With Or Without Deal On 31st October

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=8YrjZ9Q5ipg

***UPDATE***

Nigel Farage is far from impressed with Boris' deal. Here he is talking about it on his regular London Broadcasting Company (LBC) phone-in show - YouTube link

[scanner]

Boris must play Chess.

[greybeard]

Posted by scanner (here)
Boris must play Chess.

Yes but there you only have one opponent.
The dice is loaded against him.
Still you never know--he might just pull it off.
Whatever he is in a good position to win a General Election--at the moment.
Chris