August 2016 Predictions by FireRat...Major Storms Brewing?

[FireRat]

Hello Avalon Members!

August 2016 is here and is set to be an interesting one for weather, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Middle-latitude areas could also see flooding events like the ones seen in July. Why is this you might wonder?...It could be due to a manifestation of Numerology & Chinese Astrology combinations that will exist in the times as we head into a very interesting 4-month portion of the year, the months of August through November 2016, and August could prove active in its own right. These months tend to get amped up considerably during 'Number 9' years of Numerology, and we may see a "repeat" of years like 2007, 1998, 1989 and etc. (All big hurricane & storm years during August - November time). Well folks, here goes the Rat's for the month in my color-enhanced fashion:

August 6-14:

Most Likely Scenario: We could see a Major Flooding Event or Disaster take place during this week-long risk period, most likely caused by severe thunderstorms or tropical storm/ hurricane landfalls in parts of the Northern Hemisphere. A hurricane named Earl is currently heading into the Yucatan region of the Caribbean, and could help spark this flood scenario in Mexico and Central America come August 6-7. Places that were hard hit in June and July by floods could continue to be affected this month, including portions of the Mid-Atlantic US region. Any additional rains in parts of the US that were recently struck by floods, such as West Virginia and Maryland, could result in more floods. Watch the weather closely during this time. Also watch China, who received some of the worst floods in recent years this past July 18-20.

2nd Likely Scenario: A Tropical Storm or Hurricane/ Typhoon (independent of Earl, which is already happening) could form fast and strike land during this long period, likely causing damage and sparking Scenario 1's flood. The dates between August 8th and 13th have the greatest risk for this type of disaster, keep a close eye on the tropics in the days leading up to these to see where a threat may form and where it could go. A typhoon would seem slightly more likely to happen during these dates as opposed to hurricanes which become more likely during Late August. Watch the West Pacific and Caribbean/ Gulf of Mexico the closest. Eastern Pacific hurricanes would likely stay out to sea.

3rd Possible Scenario: We could also see some Severe Weather Events taking place during this risk time. These events could be triggered by powerful summertime storm systems, with strong thunderstorms occurring along the moist portion of the storms where hot and "cooler" air masses collide, i.e. along the cold fronts and between cold fronts & warm fronts. These storm systems will likely be most prevalent in more northern areas of the northern hemisphere in comparison to Spring as temperatures remain at peak warmth in many areas, especially the North-Central & North-Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, Northern Asia. August can be an active month for Thunderstorm Activity and Floods in many parts of the northern hemisphere, and the US/Canada and Europe region in particular. The main disasters to watch out for during this potential Severe Weather scenario will be Damaging Winds, Hail, Flash Floods (Scenario 1) and even Isolated Tornadoes. Watch your local weather news closely if your area becomes threatened by stormy weather during this time.

4th Possible Scenario: A Major Earthquake could take place, especially during August 6-9, and August 12-13, possibly attaining Magnitude 7.0 - 7.5. The quake scenario could be particularly damaging and a small to medium sized Tsunami cannot be ruled out if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast.

High Risk: The chance for any natural disaster to strike during this risky period is 40 percent, with a 30 percent risk for the event to be severe.

August 16-20:

Most Likely Scenario: A Powerful Hurricane/Typhoon, or Tropical Storm could develop and strike land during this risky time, likely causing major damage and sparking Scenario 2's flood. An August 18th-19th landfall could prove devastating, since these are some of the month's strongest risk days according to the Numerology and Chinese Astrology used to uncover these potential 'bad' days. Keep a close eye on the tropics in the days leading up to this period to see whether a threat materializes and to see where it could go. Both major typhoons and hurricanes are equally likely during this time, so watch the West Pacific (including China and the Philippines) and Western Atlantic, Caribbean/ Gulf of Mexico the closest. The Eastern Pacific's hurricanes would likely move away from land this time of year, therefore lessening the risk along Mexico.

2nd Likely Scenario: A Major Flooding Event or Disaster could very well take place during this time as well, most likely caused by tropical storm activity or severe thunderstorms mainly in parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Places that were hard hit in June and July by floods could continue to be affected this month, including portions of the Mid-Atlantic US region and China. Watch the weather closely during this time if your region ends up being under the gun for flooding rains. China is particularly at risk this month, especially since they already received deadly flooding rains in July, and any typhoon-induced rain could easily prove disastrous over there.

3rd Possible Scenario: A Major Earthquake could take place during this potent risk period, especially during August 16, and August 19-20, possibly attaining Magnitude 7.0 - 8.0. The quake scenario could be particularly damaging and a small to medium sized Tsunami cannot be ruled out if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast. This risk period seems to be the most favorable one for an earthquake event/disaster this August, so watch the earthquake zones and areas recently seeing earthquake activity very closely.

4th Possible Scenario: A bout of Severe Weather may also occur during this risk time. This event could be a result of a powerful summertime storm system, which may spark strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, floods, hail and even some tornadoes in parts of middle-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, like the North-Central & North-Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, Northern Asia. August can be an active month for Thunderstorm Activity and Floods in many parts of the northern hemisphere, in particular the US/Canada, Europe and China region. The main disasters to watch out for during this potential Severe Weather scenario will be again Damaging Winds, Hail, Flash Floods and even Isolated Tornadoes. Scenario 2 could be a product of Scenario 4, since severe flooding can result from severe weather. Watch any world areas expected to see heavy storms by these dates, especially if they are areas that already received flooding events in July.

High Risk: The chance for any natural disaster to strike during this dangerous risk period is 40 percent, with a 30 percent risk for the event to be severe.

August 22-29

Most Likely Scenario: A Major Hurricane/Typhoon, or Tropical Storm could form and hit land during this week-long time period, likely causing major damage and could come hand-in-hand with Scenario 2 (flood). The dates of August 25th-29th are the most risky for a hurricane landfall this period, and during this month as a whole. These dates are also some of the month's strongest risk days according to the Numerology and Chinese Astrology used to uncover these potential 'bad' days, rivaling August 18-19. Keep a close eye on the tropics in the days leading up to this period to see whether a threat materializes and to see where it could go. Both major typhoons and hurricanes are equally likely during this time, so watch the West Pacific (including China and the Philippines) and Western Atlantic, Caribbean/ Gulf of Mexico the closest. The Eastern Pacific's hurricanes would likely move away from land this time of year, therefore lessening the risk along Mexico. Of special note, Lots of historic hurricanes have struck land along the Atlantic in years past during the last week of August, so this might be prime-time for this part of the world in August 2016, for places like the Caribbean, Central America and the US...and remain that way through all of September, which will feature an unique hurricane risk that happens every 9 years (more on that later, in Sept's thread). The tropics could very well appear to awaken for many here after several years of low to average activity.

2nd Likely Scenario: A Major Flooding Event or Disaster could happen during this time frame as well, most likely caused by the tropical storm activity mentioned in Scenario 1, or caused by severe thunderstorms mainly in parts of the Northern Hemisphere and Australia/ South America. Places that were hard hit in June and July by floods could continue to be affected during this period, including portions of the Mid-Atlantic US region and China. Watch the weather closely during this time if your region is under the gun for flooding rains or tropical storms/ hurricanes or typhoons. China is particularly at risk this month, especially since they already received disastrous floods in July, and any typhoon-induced rain could easily prove disastrous over there. Mexico & Central America may also be a big flood watch area if Hurricane Earl leaves the area sensitive to floods during its August 4-7 rampage.

3rd Possible Scenario: A series of Severe Weather Events could also be in store during this time. This event, or events, could be a result of a powerful summertime storm systems, which may spark strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, floods, hail and even some tornadoes in parts of middle-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, like the North-Central & North-Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, Northern Asia. The main disasters to watch out for during this potential Severe Weather scenario will be again Damaging Winds, Hail, Flash Floods and even Isolated Tornadoes. Scenario 2 could be a product of this Scenario, since severe flooding can result from severe weather. Of important note, considering the high probability of seeing a hurricane or tropical storm landfall during this period, look out for tornadoes in areas where a hurricane/ tropical storm makes landfall, because the storm's rain bands are well known to spark damaging twisters away from the storm's center. This happened with many storms in years past, such as 2004's Hurricane Ivan and its 100+ tornadoes along the Gulf Coast. Watch any world areas predicted to see tropical storm/ hurricane strikes or heavy Summer storms prior to or during these dates.

4th Possible Scenario: A Strong Earthquake could occur during this time as well, especially during August 22-23, and August 27-29, possibly attaining Magnitude 6.5 - 7.5 and causing significant impacts. This quake scenario is still worth mentioning even though the weather scenarios appear much likelier, because if it were to occur, it could be particularly damaging and a small to medium sized Tsunami cannot be ruled out if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast. Watch the earthquake zones and areas recently seeing earthquake activity closely, just in case.

High Risk: The chance for any natural disaster to strike during this major risk period is 35 percent, with a 25 percent risk for the event to be severe.

The Breakdown: Here follows a date-specific look highlighting exactly when we could see what events and scenarios, along with the main areas to watch for each of the possible events! The dates are color coded, so look out for the ones in reds and oranges because those days are the ones likelier to be the ones involved in certain events:

Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, and Typhoons: August 4-13, August 14-15, August 16-20, August 21-22, August 23-29.
August typically brings a major increase in tropical storm activity among most of the northern hemisphere's ocean basins, and this one could be a busy one. Hurricane Season should ramp up in the Atlantic, as well as both the Eastern and Western Pacific. Typhoons and East Pacific Hurricanes will become frequent this month, and land-threatening typhoons could be a big issue anytime this month. The Atlantic could witness several storms form and some could strike land severely. In fact, as I write this on this early morning of August 4th, a brand new Hurricane Earl developed and is about to make landfall in Belize in the Yucatan peninsula. I believe we might see severe floods in Mexico and Central America as a result of Earl as early as August 5-6, to start the 8/6 - 8/14 period with a flood event. Main Areas to Watch: Locations that should be on the lookout include the West Pacific and East Pacific (Philippines, Taiwan, China, Mexico, Central America), which could see increased tropical storm activity, AND The western Atlantic Ocean with emphasis on the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Anywhere from Texas to Florida and the Bahamas, southeast to the Lesser Antilles should be on watch. The 2nd half of August might become very active and we may see a big threat come from either the Caribbean or Atlantic waters near the eastern Caribbean Islands. Rare activity in the Indian Ocean is not ruled out either.

Floods and Landslides: August 4-5, August 6-15, August 16-20, August 23-29.
This month is quite risky for Flooding and Flash Flooding disasters as well as Landslide events caused by heavy rains, quite possibly being a result of tropical storm activity or major summer storms in Temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere. August 2016 should continue the flood threat across several regions impacted in July, and will introduce much more flood potential to regions in the tropics experiencing an influx of tropical storm activity. Main Areas to Watch: Watch areas experiencing heavy rainfall, tropical storms, or severe weather, especially on or near large river basins and/or near hilly regions. The Pacific region of East and Southeast Asia (Philippines, Taiwan, China & Japan) are at highest risk for this type of disaster, closely followed by Central America, Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2nd place, especially if tropical storms affect land in these regions. Thirdly, watch the Eastern US and Western Europe in case Summer rains get out of hand, the way they did in some areas in July. Also keep a close eye on any other world regions about to experience a major weather event during these upcoming days, since prolonged heavy rains can lead to bad floods and mudslide/ landslides.

Severe Weather & Tornadoes: August 6-12, August 13-15, August 16-20, August 21-22, August 23-29.
Severe Weather and a few Tornadoes are still possible scenarios for this month. The North-Central US, Canada, and Northeast/ Mid-Atlantic US will be particularly at risk for severe storms this month, many of which could have damaging winds and cause flash floods. A few strong tornadoes are still possible this month, especially in areas still experiencing the clash between warm & moist air VS cool, dry air along fronts brought in by storm systems. Main Areas to Watch: keep eyes primarily on the North-Central U.S. (including the Plains States), the Midwestern U.S., Northeastern & Mid-Atlantic US in first place, and West & Central Europe in 2nd place for this possible severe weather. Also keep eyes on any areas experiencing tropical storm/ hurricane landfalls because these storms striking land often set off tornadoes in areas away from the storm's center. August could still be fairly active for severe weather and tornadoes, especially with risk periods like this.

Earthquakes: August 6-9, August 10-11, August 12-13, August 15, August 16-20, August 21-22, August 23-29.
Earthquake magnitudes are likely to be above M 6.5 on the more earthquake-favoring dates in red and orange, with possibly significant impacts occurring if earthquakes indeed become the manifested events this month. August 2016 appears to be average-looking when it comes to earthquake potential. We could see a few strong Magnitude 6.0 to 6.5 quakes, and perhaps one Magnitude 7.0 - 8.0 quake, sometime this month, especially during the most intense days of this month. *Important note...all dates mentioned here under 'earthquakes' have the potential for seeing Magnitude 6.0+ quakes, which could all result in some sort of impact. Watch out for a possible tsunami in case one of the quakes surpasses M 7.0 and has the epicenter at sea. Main Areas to Watch: The Pacific Ring of Fire, mainly along Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and Indonesia/Polynesia, as well as the western coasts of the Americas, particularly South America this month. A major 7.7 quake struck in the middle of the NW Pacific (Mariana Islands) on July 29, and this could lead to another strong shaker in this world region this month and the following 3 months, so East Asia, Japan and the Philippines could be the main region to watch. Also, watch the Caribbean region, the Middle East, Mediterranean, and parts of inland "Eurasia" just in case. Basically, watch any regions experiencing recent strong earthquake activity such as South America & Southeast Asia.

*The Month's Most Intense Risk Days are: August 8-9 & August 19 in first place, then second place is held by August 17-18 & August 26-28. Third place is tied between August 7th, 10th, 12th, 16th, 25th.*

The Month at a Glance:

August 2016 is looking like a very stormy month this year, especially concerning the tropics and subtropics where we may see several tropical storm and hurricane/typhoon impacts. There are 3 strong 'High Risk', back-to-back risk periods this month, and are all similarly long at about a week's length each. These are of a perfect length to favor weather disasters, in particular FLOODS and TROPICAL CYCLONES (meaning anything from Tropical Storms to Hurricanes and Typhoons, depending on world regions). Overall, expect August 2016 to be an active weather month, and a fairly average one when it comes to earthquake and other land-related events. Expect 2 to 4 notable natural disasters this month, of which 1 to 2 could be severe in nature. We may expect 2 to 3 of the events to be weather-related, and the other 1 to possibly be an earthquake-related or volcanic event. Hurricanes/ Typhoons, Tropical Storms and Major Floods are this month's main dangers.

Well folks, that's how this month is looking, please stay tuned to your local news if nasty weather comes your way! Updates will be posted as necessary, feel free to shoot me any questions!

By the way, Here's the link to my August + September 2016 prediction video...which gives insight into the following month as well, hope you like it and find it useful!:
https://youtu.be/Leel67CLdPk

_FireRat

[FireRat]

UPDATE: 8/15/16

MASSIVE FLOODS IN LOUISIANA LEAVE 7 DEAD. OVER 20,000 WATER RESCUES WERE PERFORMED DURING THE LAST WEEK (8/6 - 8/15).

FULL STORY:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...b069e7e505fdf1

SCOPE OF THE FLOOD:


The massive flood disaster ongoing in Louisiana has grown in extent tremendously over the last few days, after beginning around August 6th with endless bouts of rain since. More flooding appears likely in the days ahead as more rain is being forecast. This was the scenario I feared might come true for these dates, and the coming weeks do not offer much relief. August of this year is certainly a water-flood disaster type month. This was August 6-14's Scenario 1 with one of the locations of Scenario 2 even though the storm that caused the floods was centered inland. Had the low pressure system responsible for this event been 100 miles further south into the Gulf of Mexico this would've been a tropical storm or hurricane!

[FireRat]

UPDATE...8-19-16...Magnitude 7.3 Earthquake struck South Atlantic.

A powerful quake struck the South Sandwich Islands region in the South Atlantic southeast of the southern tip of South America. No tsunami was generated. Full story in this link:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/late...lkland-Islands

[TODD & NORA]

..........

[FireRat]

Update...8/23/16...TROPICAL TROUBLE AHEAD?

The tropical Atlantic in particular, has become active and there are two storms to watch. A new tropical storm named Gaston formed quickly out in the far east Atlantic and is being forecast to become a hurricane. It may come uncomfortably close to the northeastern Caribbean Islands, Bermuda, and perhaps the eastern US by early September.

The other one to watch isn't named yet (would be Hermine), but appears to be the worse threat as meteorologists are closely watching a storm system that lies just east of the Lesser Antilles that could become a tropical storm as it heads towards the Bahamas and potentially Florida of the SE US. Ocean temperatures near Florida and the Bahamas is near 90 degrees Fahrenheit, and should a tropical storm enter this area and find good development conditions, we could have a hurricane on our hands come August 26-29...the end part of the current particularly hurricane-prone risk dates. Please watch the weather channel or local news for regular updates as we near these dates, especially if you live or have family/friends in the Caribbean Islands and Southeast US.

This could be only the beginning because this September coming up has characteristics that could make it a huge month for hurricane related events and disasters. I plan to post Sept's thread by 9/1/16...but am getting ahead by already saying this will be a big month for tropical cyclones to give you all an early heads up...the entire month from start to end is fair game to hurricane or typhoon disasters.

Take care all,
FireRat

[FireRat]

Update...8/25/16...DEADLY M 6.2 QUAKE STRUCK CENTRAL ITALY 8/24/16

A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Appenines region of central Italy, northeast of Rome early Wednesday morning, leveling the ancient town of Amatrice and surrounding areas. At least 247 people have died in this disaster, I fear the toll may surpass 500. Here's the full story on this latest event:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/23/europe/italy-earthquake/