The Future? Maybe?

[Chester]

I got an e-mail today that had the following. Apologies, but no source was cited.


In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years after that, their business model all but disappeared, and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you ever think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?

Digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time before it improved, became way superior to traditional formats, was finally cheaper to produce and got mainstream — in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health care, automatic/electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and many other jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution and welcome to the Exponential Age. Software alone will dramatically disrupt most traditional industries as we know them today in just the next 5-10 years.

Mind you, Uber is no more than just a software (app) tool. They don't own any cars, but are now the biggest taxi company in the world. AirBnB is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties — just software.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers have become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young doctors and lawyers already have fewer jobs. You can get legal and medical advice (more or less basic stuff) from IBM Watson within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when out is provided by humans.

So if you study medicine or law, maybe you need to rethink your career path? There will be 90% less doctors and lawyers in the future, only specialists acting as assistants will remain.

Watson already helps doctors and nurses diagnose cancer, and being 4 times more accurate and faster than human doctors and nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. By 2030, computers will become far more intelligent than humans, and with unlimited memory.

Automatic cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete automobile industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and be productive while driving.

Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autopilot driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will try the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate business is bound to change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electricity, which will become incredibly cheap and clean.

Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy stations were installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar energy will drop so much that all coal companies will be defunct by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are pharma companies building a medical device (called the 'Tricorder' from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath into it. It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years.. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a 3D printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself - in the future, do you think we will have that? If the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed for failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time frame.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first petri dish-produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow-produced veal in 2018.

Right now, 30% of all agricultural surface is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as 'Alternative protein source' (as most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called 'Moodies', which can already tell in which mood you are. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed, if they are speaking the truth or not.

Bitcoin might become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Education: The cheapest smart phone is already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, most humans will own a smartphone or a device that has access to world class education/information. Every child can use Khans Academy and other tools for learning art, engineering, design, languages, science, music, mathematics, etc.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

And this is just what we know of today's science and technology.

Imagine what FUTURE holds? Challenging?

Scary ? Exciting?

[Spellbound]

Bravo!! Certainly things to think about.

Dave - Toronto

[ZooLife]

Least we forget that that is only one side of the technological coin.

Which can also change the estimated timelines significantly.

[ElfeMya]

Exciting. Bring it on !
;-)
Thanks for this and hugs !

[Orph]

Yeah, so what. Tell me the good news. Tell me when all this newfangled technology is going to make politicians and governments go the way of the dinosaur and then I'll be happy.

[Justplain]

If we continue to go about our business, and not to submit to authoritarian yokes, such as not allowing ourselves to be chipped, nor allowing the imposition of a cashless society, nor permitting the establishment of one world government, etc., perhaps, as per this article that Sam has posted, we will get a critical mass established for helpful tech.

Tech can be helpful if it increases our independence. It appears that decreased price and increased effeciency of solar energy really permits people to get off the grid. 3D printers have the potential of making us more independent. Ibm watson for legal and medical advice does the same. The internet permits us to home school our children, even now, which increases our potential independence too.

Any way that a centralized authority structure is bypassed, the closer we become to true freedom. If tech frees us up from being slaves to low wage jobs, gives us more independence and gives us more valuable free time, then we can spend more time raising our consciousness.

Hi tech may end up being fine and dandy, but we should still all have a major component of our life training on how to live without it. This should include:
- what herbs to get from the local environment to keep one's health,
- what local natural food sources are available
- how to make clothing and housing from local materials,
- how to heat and cook from local fuels, etc.

Its always good to have a legit backup plan, in my opinion, and this would help us stay grounded in nature despite the hi tech.

[lake]

From my perspective ALL OF YOU need to be very concerned about each and every one of these 'future' possibilities!

I thought to rebuke, one by one, each consideration of the possible futures....but that post would have been too long for most, even here on Avalon, to read!

So I will just address, with one question, one part of the opening post:

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are pharma companies building a medical device (called the 'Tricorder' from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath into it. It then analyzes 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

Exactly how much of this single marker of limitation and lack of self conjecture, do you consider acts for the well being of the mass currently incarnated upon Terra?

[Baby Steps]

On the optimistic side, if the tech is empowering for the individual, it enables people to do more of what THEY wish to do.Rather than grafting for a crust.It makes them more self sufficient.

This might well create tension between the people trying to live their lives as they choose, and the controlling nanny state, which uses regulations to make as much of our activities as it can into taxable opportunities for them.

If freedom wins out, we will see a blossoming of local economies and the sharing economy, co-operatives and barter.But this growth economy is HARD TO TAX.

So there is the problem for the nanny state. Over the last ten years it has been harder and harder for the state to get enough tax income to function.

IF the state aggressively uses this tech to down-size itself , faster than individuals move out of the taxable economy, we have stability , prosperity and progress.

IF the state uses increasingly authoritarian measures to protect its income in the face of the trend away from taxable economic activity, we get the downward spiral.

So the solution is libertarian , even if you are socialist.

[Justplain]

Hi Lake, i agree that trusting a diagnostic medical device designed by pharma corps would not be advisable, let alone desireable, however if such a device (not built or funded by big pharma) gave you alternative sources for diagnostic opinions, then it could be an advantage.

I know that the advantages of tech are questionable, particularly when under the control of selfish corporate psychopaths. When we choose technology to be beneficial for us, it makes our lives easier and safer. We could choose to live with the level of tech that the Almish do, for instance, however most wouldnt and dont.

As i said in my earlier post in this thread, if we are patient and collectively choose a peaceful path, i personally believe that the tech will develop that gives us more independence and freedom. With that will come spiritual growth. I think there is evidence that this is currently in progress. Anyway, time will only tell (oh, and by the way, by many accounts end times were supposed to occur no later than 2012, and yet we're still here, intact, so i say the evidence substantiates my position).

[AutumnW]

Thanks so much for your post and the time you must have put into it, Sam. I am very preoccupied with this issue too, as people not only derive sustenance from an income predicated on the current system, they also derive a certain amount of structure and meaning. The structure and meaning part is much less of an issue for many people now, than it used to be, thank God. There is little loyalty to corporate employers and this is good and just as there is a total lack of respect for employees.

For those who are only seeing the upside of technology freeing people from drudgery, I suggest a positive approach to this, not a rose coloured glasses false optimism. Also, in a world where people no longer have income, the idea of reducing systems of control, like government, is wrong headed. You will need more government of a much more humane sort -- not less. Look at Venezuala. They are living through the collapse of oil prices and the impact of a government that has less and less control and power to do anything. They need more government, not less, to provide policing etc...

Humanity has to come to terms with the hard fact that most of the world's population, in technological societies, is not needed in the labor pool and DEAL with it. They have to refrain from using pat panaceas like, "you just need to go to university!" What governments need to do, particularly in the US is raise federal taxes on the 'haves' and guarantee a basic living income for those who are and will remain unemployed.

It might be very unpopular to say, but sterilization should be voluntary and encouraged, with financial incentives, as well.

[lake]

Posted by Justplain (here)
When we choose technology to be beneficial for us, it makes our lives easier and safer.
....... i personally believe that the tech will develop that gives us more independence and freedom. With that will come spiritual growth. ........(oh, and by the way, by many accounts end times were supposed to occur no later than 2012, and yet we're still here, intact, so i say the evidence substantiates my position).

When each of us choose technology over the natural state inherent here, we consent to being further down the 'plug hole'. There is no tech which assists YOUR awareness here!
Yes I know that is difficult but your life cannot BE safer nor easier as your LIFE does not actually construct a reality....but that which IS you does?

The idea of a man made software/hardware creating a better reality for man is like a 'nanny' changing your nappies.......I promise that eventually said nanny WILL slap your bottom.
If you do not want responsibility for your actions then why not just BE a smart phone, this is what you are considering man to 'want' to be?

A 'man' is not a 'human'. We can leave psychopaths to be a shadow of a man!

And as to 2012....lol.......your only knowledge of the current year you swim in is provided to you.
You slept this last night....or was there a 'last night' to begin that sleep?
Exactly when did you start this life? How can you define it? How long have you been here?
At least one enquiring awareness wishes to know?

[Justplain]

Well, Lake, if you want to discuss being aware of tech, you may not have realized that every piece of clothing you wear is a piece of technology. The knife and fork, spoon or chopsticks, and bowl/plate you use to eat your food with, is technology. The home you live in is a piece of technology. All of these pieces of technology make your life easier and safer. Try an evening in the woods, especially in winter, without any clothes on or shelter over your head. Dont talk as if some technology isnt for our benefit, that argument is absurd.

The extent that this useful technology frees up one's time to pursue spiritual or other beneficial activities is up to the individual. And that free time can benefit one's awareness.

When we have the reputed abilities of the Plejaren to manifest whatever we need or want with a thought, then your position makes sense. I cant do that, and no one i know can, so until that ability becomes available to people, we will need some level of tech to survive, especially with the volume of population we have now.

I agree the tech we have now is not serving us well, its too polluting and too wasteful and is often used for oppressive purposes.

And as far as knowing what day it is, or year it is, the current calendar and time is a convention we use to be able to communicate with one another. Since we all share this 'dream', we need common means of communicating, like language. If you want to question all of these conventions you can, but you'll likely drive your poor brain bonkers. I dont need to play that psychout game, i know my limits and choose voluntarily to live within them, in order to be able to communicate with the outside world. You can choose otherwise, that's the freedom you have been granted, so do as you will.

Regarding technology, i feel that what is needed is a bio friendly tech that decentralizes control, and gives each person more independence and freedom. I believe it is achievable. Reportedly Tesla had a vision it would arrive. That's what I believe will happen.

[lake]

Well you may be correct....then again you may not be?



There is a covering of this supposed world which is not natural to this dimension?
Who knows.......maybe you

smile your on camera

[ZooLife]

People tend to attach ominous warnings to technology but really the ominous warning should be attached to the people that have their hands on it.

There always seems to be a segment of the population that seeks an 'edge' to controlling the rest of the population. It's as if they believe themselves ordained by God, if you know what I mean. These people are misguided but dangerous. Psychopaths every one of them.

[Justplain]

Hi Lake, I don't know what makes up the van Allen belts. I know the mainstream academic view is that the earth's magnetic field supposedly caused by the earth's molten core (not gonna speculate on a hollow earth, though volcanoes prove there is molten rock underground), protects the planet from potentially harmful radiation from the sun, like gama rays. You are implying that the fact that antiprotons found in the the belt region implies an artificial environment. From your standpoint I assume you mean it is there due to some ominous alien presence.

I would venture to say that this protective shield is there by intelligent design, but likely from a benevolent source. Firstly, there is fairly good evidence that the Earth is a living being. Secondly, in Michael Newton's 'Journey of Souls', some people's soul regressions indicate that our souls are here in massive groups learning our lessons, so we are here by design, and thirdly, Newton's book also indicates that our souls, when they advance enough, are trained to become creators of matter, then life, then planets, then suns, and so on. And these creator souls follow examples provided by those who preceeded them, the earliest predecessor being God. So this world is a contrivance. Selfishness causes the karmic problems we face here. By collective good will we can reverse the darkness that rules this world. We can do it because the big boss is on our side.

[Ellisa]

Terrific post Sam. We really need to understand what the impact of the various technologies will be--- and sometimes we won't like it.There just are not enough resources for us all to enjoy the freedom that will come from the use of technologies doing the 'boring' bits of life for us while we live vicariously through screens and gadgets. Perhaps we should all read 'Brave New World' and think about the role of the sedative soma in that novel!

There are many millions who live a poverty stricken life in which technology means the drudgery of their demanding jobs will no longer be needed. What do these people do? Perhaps join the huge tide of people migrating around the world as refugees. There will be huge numbers of people displaced by technology, as there was in the Industrial Revolution. And so far we have not even begun to see the full result of Climate Change, which may be horrific.

Indeed technology has the potential for great improvements for all our lives, but sadly many of us will be missing out on every level.

[Fellow Aspirant]

I really like trying to make sense of where current trends may be leading our civilization, but speculation on the future has a way of coming back to bite us on the bum.

For your amusement, here is a frequently cited list of some of the best "hind sight" quotations of all time:


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

"Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year." -- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.

"But what...is it good for?" -- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Attributed to Bill Gates, 1981, but believed to be an urban legend.

"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

"The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys." -- Sir William Preece, chief engineer of the British Post Office, 1876.

"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.

"While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility." -- Lee DeForest, inventor.

"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C', the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)

"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper." -- Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in "Gone With the Wind."

"A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make." -- Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies.

"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

"Radio has no future. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible. X-rays will prove to be a hoax." -- William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, British scientist, 1899.

"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said, 'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'" -- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get Atari and HP interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal computer.

"If I had thought about it, I wouldn't have done the experiment. The literature was full of examples that said you can't do this." -- Spencer Silver on the work that led to the unique adhesives for 3-M "Post-It" Notepads.

"It will be years -- not in my time -- before a woman will become Prime Minister." -- Margaret Thatcher, 1974.

"I see no good reasons why the views given in this volume should shock the religious sensibilities of anyone." -- Charles Darwin, The Origin Of Species, 1869.

"With over 50 foreign cars already on sale here, the Japanese auto industry isn't likely to carve out a big slice of the U.S. market." -- Business Week, August 2, 1968.

"That Professor Goddard with his 'chair' in Clark College and the countenancing of the Smithsonian Institution does not know the relation of action to reaction, and of the need to have something better than a vacuum against which to react--to say that would be absurd. Of course, he only seems to lack the knowledge ladled out daily in high schools." -- 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary rocket work. The remark was retracted in the July 17, 1969 issue.

"You want to have consistent and uniform muscle development across all of your muscles? It can't be done. It's just a fact of life. You just have to accept inconsistent muscle development as an unalterable condition of weight training." -- Response to Arthur Jones, who solved the "unsolvable" problem by inventing Nautilus.

"Ours has been the first, and doubtless to be the last, to visit this profitless locality." -- Lt. Joseph Ives, after visiting the Grand Canyon in 1861.

"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." -- Workers whom Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.

"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." -- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929.

"There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will." -- Albert Einstein, 1932.

"The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in explosives." -- Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project.

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

"There will never be a bigger plane built." -- A Boeing engineer, after the first flight of the 247, a twin engine plane that holds ten people.

"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Attributed to Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899, but known to be an urban legend.

"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction." -- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872.

"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon." -- Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon-Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873.


B.

[neutronstar]

Posted by ZooLife (here)

Psychopaths every one of them.

Not all of them. Some are sociopaths.

[ZooLife]

Posted by neutronstar (here)

Posted by ZooLife (here)

Psychopaths every one of them.

Not all of them. Some are sociopaths.

That is just the last stop before their final destination.

[LoneWolf76]

Posted by lake (here)
Well you may be correct....then again you may not be?



There is a covering of this supposed world which is not natural to this dimension?
Who knows.......maybe you

smile your on camera

That Van Allen belt thingumy-jig is no big deal, sure didn't they blast a bunch of people through it using a rocket and some tinfoil way back in history?