Gordon White is a writer on chaos magic (see his website, http://runesoup.com/).
He has a regular podcast on topics esoteric and magical and mostly writes from this perspective. Recently, he has begun writing a weekly update that deals more with geopolitics, which he calls TARL - The All Red Line (you can sign up to receive this on his website).
Although I do not really understand the world of magic, let alone chaos magic, I do find his weekly reports on the geopolitical situation interesting and often insightful. I thought I would share a few here.
*WARNING to readers - Gordon White uses strong language*
This week's update:
Rolling Snake Eyes
What is the purpose of archonology? I mentioned it during the series but it is worth revisiting.
It is not to tally up a list of crimes and march on Washington, Brussels or London and expect some sort of change. That has never happened and will never happen. (In Washington’s case, the last attempt to do so in any real fashion resulted in the army firing upon war veterans and an attempted coup by Grandpa Bush and his fascist cronies, which was only thwarted thanks to Smedley “war is a racket” Butler. Now cast your eyes to Dakota.)
Rather, archonological excavation is intended to extract the most accurate data points about what is ‘really’ going on from underneath the now complete fabrications that pass for official narrative so as to position one’s life accordingly. It is to listen to the weather forecast when on the open sea, rather than the box office weekend takings.
And with that, we return to Europe to metaphorically visit a Monaco craps table. It sounds obvious but the ‘secret’ to craps is to stay at the table long enough to roll a seven or eleven but leave before rolling snake eyes.
These are the dice rolls the EU is looking at over the next twelve months:
- Italy is threatening to veto the EU budget over the refugee crisis.
- The Pirate Party may actually win the Iceland election. (Which would be amazing.)
- Austria: A rigged election in April that stole victory from a Eurosceptic candidate, led to a high court overturning of the result, led to a proposed rerun on October 2nd which was then postponed because of ‘faulty glue on postal votes’ (the Eurosceptic party had widened its lead) which is now scheduled for December 4th.
- Italy again: An election in which the incumbent Renzi is currently neck and neck with Grillo’s Eurosceptic party.
- The refusal of a growing number of Eastern European countries to accept any Syrianish refugees because of the outright political disaster it will cause for ruling parties at home.
- An election in France, where the incumbent Hollande is polling in single digits -making him probably the least popular leader of any western country ever. Do not rule out an outright win by the Front National. Even without it, an EU membership referendum will be negotiated as part of whatever conditions the eventual winner will be forced to make with Le Pen.
- Rajoy versus Catalonia: Round 537,000
- An election in Germany which Merkel will surely lose, likely to a coalition of increasingly Eurosceptic parties. (Armstrong things Merkel's latest deflationary real estate policies are a tacit admittance that the Euro will fail, which will trigger an on-rush into German real assets. Which, of course, it will.)
- A banking crisis either in Italy or Deutsche Bank will lead to bail-ins of savings accounts and will tear through European banks' derivate positions and capital ratios like shrapnel through sponge cake. (There are ten times as many non-performing loans in Europe as there are the US.)
And now we have NATO putting more troops on Europe's eastern border than at any time during the Cold War. That is a lot of dice rolls. We do not need to know which roll turns up the snake eyes for the sixteenth tarot trump to land on Brussels. (To mix gambling metaphors.)
How does Brexit look now, then?
Actually, let's look at it. Liberal Twitter shat the bed when the FTSE briefly dropped after the vote, but it is now at record highs so they've stopped using it as 'proof' that 'Brexit' is a disaster. The Pound is at multiyear lows -and heading lower- which is mostly the same thing as record FTSE highs -asset price increases are the same thing as currency depreciation- except now Liberal Twitter is using the weak Pound as 'proof' of their so-called disaster. (It does make weekend Easyjet visits to Berlin more expensive for Hoxton hipsters, but both places are identical to Brooklyn now anyway, so why bother with the trip at all?)
Yes, some of that weakness is Bank of England policy response to Brexit, most of it is the strengthening USD -which was happening anyway. On balance, the British are provably wealthier since Brexit, even when you account for currency weakness. And from a trade perspective, it is looking better and better for the UK and worse for its grumbling EU 'partners'. (There will be no hard Brexit because it would be financially disastrous for Europe. This is the real thinking behind the delayed Article 50 notification. By the time the exiting starts, France will be in no position to dictate terms. Welcome to the Balance of Power, kids. London has a thousand years of experience playing this game.)
And yes, the current Prime Minister, Theresa May, is not exactly covering herself in glory. But this is entirely expected on the wrong side of the 2015.75 peak in government. No one is anywhere because the sky is falling.
I also surmise there is a 'deep throne' connection to her inexplicable confidence. It looks like a 'command performance'. The Queen -who was pro-Brexit- probably had a very interesting discussion with May when she was first invited to the Palace. Consider this: The safest -possibly only- way to keep Scotland in the kingdom is to have the Eurozone collapse before Nicola Sturgeon gets another referendum. A few MI5 phone calls to the Financial Times -headquartered on the Thames- would be enough to keep Deutsche Bank on the front cover for a week for all the wrong reasons. That's about all it would take. Don't think the Queen thinks like that? Well, ask yourself if Scotland is more important to her than Europe. (And if she appoints her feckless son, Andrew, to a Brussels negotiation team you will know that she's moved from 'this is expedient' to 'I hate those guys'.)
A centralising, technocratic boondoggle that has destroyed southern Europe and sold the Continent's dwindling number of young people up the river -to the tune of a 55% unemployment rate in some countries- will begin its end with one of the above dice throws. And that is great news. Because the destruction of southern Europe will come to an end.
In most of the most developed countries in the world industrial production has grown in volume since 1990, although a great deal of manufacturing capacities have been moved from the West to the emerging markets. Moreover, in countries like the USA, Israel, Switzerland, Austria and Germany the output has surpassed the 2008 pre-crisis levels. However, if we take a look at the euroarea or the Group of Seven (G7), then numbers are still lower than in 2008 but definitely higher than in 1990. [More.]
Italy, France, Greece and Portugal are not producing in the same volumes today that they were in 1990 -almost 30 years ago. According to OECD data, the steep drop began with the introduction of the Euro in 2002. On the other side of the dice roll, these economies will have restored to them the capacity to have their currencies increase or decrease in value according to internal conditions and requirements.
A couple of weeks ago, cracked.com -of all places- had a surprisingly cogent piece about why so many people are voting for Trump. It's not racism. It's urban elites telling regional populations they are getting richer as they have got poorer and poorer -and then accusing them of racism when they are angry about it. This is precisely what is going on behind the rising Euroscepticism across Europe -including Britain. It is amazing to me that people can publicly support -well, tweet support anyway- an extractive system that has destroyed the economies and futures of the young people in the literal home of western magic by siding with technocrats who receive tax-free salaries and negotiate secret trade agreements that surrender European sovereignty to American corporations.
Calling these Eurosceptic Europeans racist is perpetuating a class warfare that just drives them into the arms of racists. Which makes the urban elites shout "racist" ever louder. Which makes the regional populations who have been harvested by centralisation angrier, which drives them further toward the political edges, in the dictionary definition of an unvirtuous circle.
So that's how we all got here. Waiting for our turn to roll the dice. The casino is large. Let's try a new game.
TARL Cable
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