November 2016 Predictions...A Potpourri of Disasters?

[FireRat]

Hello All Members!

October 30th, Tuesday...This is November's thread! I found this month to be very 'special'. Special isn't a good word concerning how a future month could be relating to natural processes and disasters. It turns out, this is the most risky, dangerous month I've ever catalogued yet. This potential is above anything we've seen in the last 12+ years, even higher than Nov 2013-14, March 2011, May 2008, & Dec 2004 to name a few. As you may note, several of those past example months brought major natural disasters to parts of the world. My risk level category is maxed out twice this month, 11/2016. A 3rd risk period is near maximum risk as well towards the end of the month. It is not a certainty that the month of November 2016 will be historically devastating...but the chances of that being the case are about as high as they can get. Get ready my friends, there may be more things other than the US elections making massive headline news next month, and this is what may lie ahead:

November 1

Most Likely Scenario: A Strong Earthquake could occur during this single risk date, possibly ranging around Magnitude 6.5 - 7.5, and causing moderate to significant impacts. A small to medium sized Tsunami cannot be ruled out if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast. This is the "easier" date of the 4 risk periods this month, which still has some potential for bringing something notable. I am most concerned about Italy for this date, following today's 6.6 magnitude earthquake in the central part of Italy. October 30's quake could have been a powerful aftershock, but there is also a chance it could be a foreshock. November 1 is a very good candidate day for an earthquake disaster this year. Watch other parts of the world's major earthquake zones and areas recently seeing earthquake activity closely, just in case.

2nd Possible Scenario: A Severe Weather/ Tornado Event could also be in store for November 1. This scenario could be product of a strong Autumnal storm system, which may spark strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, flash floods, hail and even some tornadoes in parts of middle-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, like the North-Central & North-Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, Northern Asia.

Moderate Risk: The chance for any of these natural disaster scenarios to strike during this risk date is 15 percent.

November 3-10

Most Likely Scenario: Major Cyclone/Typhoon/Hurricane could wreak havoc in the world's tropics during this time, with a higher chance it is either an Indian Ocean Cyclone or a Massive Typhoon. These risk days are perfectly positioned for something like this to happen, and if something were to form, I warn the storm could become ferocious and potentially catastrophic. The most powerful dates this period are Nov 7-9, and if these are the dates a tropical cyclone makes landfall...expect a major natural disaster.

2nd Likely Scenario: A Major Flooding Event or Disaster could happen during this time frame as well, most likely caused by the storm system predicted in Scenario 1, or caused by possible tropical storm activity (scenario 3). November can be a very bad month for flood disasters, in several parts of the world. This november could be more dangerous than normal, watch out for any major storms forecast as we enter these dates, because we could see devastating flooding. A river flood is likely during this time, as is severe flash floods and possibly storm surge.

3rd Likely Scenario: A Wicked Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak could be in store during this time. This event, or events, could be a result of a very powerful Fall season storm system, which may spark strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, floods, hail and even some tornadoes in parts of middle-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, like the North-Central & North-Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, Northern Asia. Some severe weather in parts of the southern hemisphere is also a likelihood. This time frame is primed for wild, severe weather that may become historically devastating. Many of us will need to watch the Weather news as we enter that week, and especially if a severe weather and/or tornado outbreak becomes forecast...because if it does, it has true potential to be terrible! The main disasters to watch out for during this potential Severe Weather scenario will be powerful tornadoes, high winds, flash flooding.

4th Possible Scenario: A Major Earthquake could occur during this time period as well, especially during November 3-4, and especially November 7-10...possibly attaining Magnitude 7.5 - 8.5 and causing severe impacts. This quake scenario may be last on this period's list, but unlike most risk periods, the chances for this to occur are also very high. This is one of November's 3 extremely dangerous, very risky time periods, and one of the two max-risk periods, which are fair game for seeing several disaster scenarios happening at once in different world regions!! Beware a medium to large sized Tsunami if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast. Watch the world's major earthquake zones and areas recently seeing earthquake activity closely, just in case.

Extreme Risk: The chance for any of these natural disaster scenarios to strike during this major risk period is 60+ percent, with a 50 percent risk that the event will have severe impacts.

November 13-19

Most Likely Scenario: Major Cyclone/Typhoon/Hurricane could wreak havoc in the world's tropics once again during this time, with a higher chance it is either an Indian Ocean Cyclone or a Massive Typhoon. This event could come in the heels of the potential storm of the prior period. These risk days are also perfectly positioned for something like this to happen, and if something were to form, I warn once again that the storm could become extremely strong and potentially catastrophic. The most powerful dates this period are Nov 16-19, and if these are the dates a tropical cyclone makes landfall...expect a major natural disaster. This is the second max-risk period of November 2016, all eyes will need to be on the tropics around the world, and also on the lookout for the other scenarios below.

2nd Likely Scenario: A Massive Earthquake could occur during this time period as well, especially during November 13, and especially November 16-19...possibly attaining Magnitude 8.0 - 9.5 and causing very severe impacts. The earthquake scenario moved up to 2nd place in this risk date period, due to very dangerous earthquake-favoring dates towards the end of the period, consisting of Nov 16-19. Beware a medium to very large sized Tsunami if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast. We'll all need to keep watch on the world's major earthquake zones, and also areas recently seeing earthquake activity, extremely closely, this just may be the most risky time frame for earthquake disasters this month...and this year. If there existed such a thing as earthquake coverage on TV similar to weather forecasts, this would be the prime time to have it! Please be safe if you are in an earthquake risk zone during the middle of this month!

3rd Likely Scenario: A Major Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak could also coincide with one of the other scenarios slated for this time. This event, or events, could be a result of a very powerful Fall season storm system, which may spark strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, floods, hail and even tornadoes in parts of middle-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, like the North-Central & North-Eastern U.S. and Western Europe, Northern Asia. Some severe weather in parts of the southern hemisphere is also a likelihood. This time frame is primed for wild, severe weather that could become historically devastating... a very similar setup to Nov 3-10. Many of us will need to watch the Weather news as we enter that week, and especially if a severe weather and/or tornado outbreak becomes forecast...because if it does, it has true potential to be nasty! The main disasters to watch out for during this potential Severe Weather scenario will be powerful tornadoes, high winds, flash flooding.

4th Possible Scenario: A Major Flooding Event or Disaster could happen during this time frame as well, most likely caused by the storm system predicted in Scenario 3, or caused by possible tropical storm activity (scenario 1). As mentioned a little earlier, this November could be much more dangerous than normal, so watch out for any major storms being forecast by local meteorologists as we enter these dates, because we could see devastating flooding result for such storms. A river flood is likely during this time, as is severe flash floods and possibly storm surge from a cyclone in scenario 1.

Extreme Risk: The chance for any of these natural disaster scenarios to strike during this major risk period is 60+ percent, with a 50 percent risk that the event will have severe impacts.

November 23-28

Most Likely Scenario: A Major Severe Weather/ Tornado Outbreak is now the #1 disaster scenario. Late November can be a very dangerous time of the year for severe weather and tornadoes, especially in North America. This year's Late November has even more potential to bring this, and I warn that we may witness a historic tornado disaster or severe weather event as we near Thanksgiving thanks to a potentially monstrous Fall storm system. Also, the same storm system that would produce this event, could bring snow and even blizzard conditions further north...we approach the time of year that winter-type events and disasters start coming back! Other parts of middle-latitude areas of the northern hemisphere, like Western Europe and Northern Asia are not exempt from this disaster scenario risk, and shoudl be on watch as well if a major Autumn season storm strikes there instead of North America. Severe weather in parts of the southern hemisphere becomes much more likely as well this time of November, with Australia leading the pack as far as severe weather risk goes. Brisbane and surrounding areas, that's you! Watch your weather around 11/25, it could get very wild. likelihood. This time frame is also primed for wild, severe weather like other periods this month, but with even more likelihood. Whatever takes place during this period could be historically devastating...especially if it occurs on or around November 25, which is the peak date. Many of us will need to watch the Weather news as we enter that week, and especially if a severe weather and/or tornado outbreak becomes forecast...because if it does, it has true potential to be terrible! Huge tornadoes likely.

2nd Likely Scenario: A Major Earthquake could occur during this time period as well, especially during November 23 & 28, and especially November 25...possibly attaining Magnitude 7.5 - 8.5 and causing severe impacts. This is the last of November's 3 extremely dangerous, very risky time periods, so keep watch on earthquake risk zones...especially those that may see activity during the Nov 1, Nov 3-10 and Nov 13-19 periods. watch out for a medium to large sized Tsunami if the epicenter is at sea or near the coast. Watch the world's major earthquake zones and areas recently seeing earthquake activity closely, just in case.

3rd Likely Scenario: Major Cyclone/Typhoon/Hurricane could still cause trouble in the world's tropics during this time, with a higher chance it is either an Indian Ocean Cyclone or a Massive Typhoon...with typhoon being the #1 choice this late in the month. Philippines, keep a very close eye to your east as we near these dates, you are at highest risk for seeing a typhoon strike during this particular period. 11/25 has been a very bad date for you guys there in years past, please monitor the tropics as we get to this period just in case. These risk days are also perfectly positioned for something like this to happen, and if something were to form, I warn the storm could become ferocious and potentially catastrophic. Atlantic Ocean tropical storms and hurricanes weren't mentioned much on here since November tends to bring quieter conditions, but this year things may be different. I would not exclude the Caribbean or Bahamas region from being risk zones this month, we may see a few more tropical storms and even a notable hurricane to end November in this region. We already have seen 14 named storms and it would not be impossible for that cound to get as high as 19 by the time November ends. Tobias would be the 19th name.

4th Possible Scenario: A Major Flooding Event or Disaster could happen during this time frame as well, most likely caused by the weather events already predicted for this time. These dates are also fair game for flood disasters, particularly flash floods and storm surges. Watch the weather news closely if flooding rains become forecast for your region. Mudslides and fast-moving floods would be this period's main concerns regarding flood disasters.

High Risk: The chance for any of these natural disaster scenarios to strike during this major risk period is 50 percent, with a 40 percent risk that the event will have severe impacts.

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The Breakdown: Here follows a simpler listing, showing exactly when we could see certain events during certain dates, along with a list of the main areas to watch for each of the possible events!:

Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons, Hurricanes: November 1, November 3-10, November 13-19, November 23-28.

Main Areas to Watch: (1st place) Philippines, Taiwan, Southern Japan, South China, Tropical West Pacific in general. (2nd place) Indian Ocean, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Southeast Arab Peninsula. (3rd place) Caribbean Islands, Central America, Florida & US East Coast, Bahamas, Bermuda, Azores Islands.

Floods and/or Landslides: November 1, November 3-10, November 13-19, November 23-28.

Main Areas to Watch: (1st place) India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Philippines, China. (2nd place) Arab Peninsula, Mediterranean region, Japan, Western Europe, Central America, Australia, Southern South America. (3rd place) Central & Southern US, Eastern Canada, Caribbean Islands, Pacific Northwest US & Canada.

Earthquakes: November 1, November 3-4, November 7-10, November 13, November 16-19, November 23, November 25, November 28.

*Special Note*: *Earthquake magnitudes are likely to be above M 6.5 on the more earthquake-favoring dates in red and orange, with possibly significant impacts occurring if earthquakes indeed become the manifested events this month. all dates mentioned here under 'earthquakes' have the potential for seeing Magnitude 6.0+ quakes, which could all result in some sort of impact. Watch out for a possible tsunami in case one of the quakes surpasses M 7.0 and has the epicenter at sea.

Main Areas to Watch: (1st place) Mediterranean region, Italy, Japan, Indonesia. (2nd place) South America, China, Other parts of Southeast Asia. (3rd place) Western Pacific coast of North & Central America, New Madrid fault region in South-Central US, Philippines, East Africa, Middle East, Pacific Ring of Fire region not already mentioned.

Severe Weather & Tornadoes: November 1, November 3-6, November 7-10, November 13-15, November 16-19, November 23-28.

Main Areas to Watch: (1st place) Central & Southeast US, including Gulf Coast. (2nd place) Western Europe, Northeast Australia, Midwestern & Eastern US. (3rd place) North-Central US, Pacific Northwest US, Pacific Canada, Northern Asia region, Japan, Mediterranean & Middle East.

*The Month's Most Intense Risk Days are: November 7 & November 16 tied for first place, seconded by November 25 for 2nd place. Third place is held by November 17 & November 19.*

The Month at a Glance:

November 2016 is an extremely dangerous month for possible natural disasters. It has the greatest potential for world calamities that I have ever seen, calculated, and really hope this does not come to pass. I've seen big risk months before, and a handful of them got away with nothing major to report. The last one that looked anywhere close to this at least were January 2016 and November 2014...both of which brought less than what was feared. However other powerful risk months of years past such as March 2011 and December 2004 were very bad. This month has big potential, so it would be safe to say we will almost certainly see 1 to 2 notable natural disasters this month, with that count possibly soaring to a whopping 6 or 7. 2 to 4 of those events could prove to be severe in impact in the worst case scenario. We may see the tropics explode with activity, particularly in the West Pacific and Indian Oceans, with devastating cyclones becoming a high probability...continuing the active streak we've seen in parts of that region in September & October. Meanwhile in the Atlantic, it is possible that Matthew won't be the last named storm of the year, and given the kind of November expected, we may get as far as Tobias on that hurricane name list...meaning possibly 5 more named storms of which one could be a late-season powerhouse. Severe weather outbreaks and tornadoes will become another danger this month, which just so happens to be called "Second Severe Season" by some meteorologists, referring to the usual uptick of tornado events seen in November before things calm down into Winter. November can be a very bad tornado month, and 2016 would be an adequate year for this month to be hectic in that regard. Flooding disasters will also take place this month, especially if the other weather scenarios manifest, and floods become side-effects to the other scenarios' storms. Last but never least, Earthquakes could make a huge comeback this month. There is real potential for a Mag. 8.0+ earthquake this month, and also the risk for several 7.0 range events. Several damaging quakes could strike in November, and even Tsunamis cannot be ruled out. Overall, Expect a well-above normal month for natural disasters, with 3 to 7 notable natural disasters this month, of which 1 to 4 could result in major/severe impacts. We may expect 2-4 of the events to be weather-related, likely due to tropical storm activity, flooding and tornadoes. The other 1-3 events could very well be due to earthquake-related or volcanic events. There is a very strong chance that we could see multiple natural disasters taking place during the most intense risk dates this month, so more than 1 scenario could happen simultaneously. Typhoons/Cyclones, Tropical Storms, Tornadoes earthquakes, and Major Floods are this month's main dangers...basically a disaster potpourri.

Well folks, that's how November is looking, please stay tuned to your local news if future nasty weather or other events comes your way!

This is the link to my October + November 2016 prediction video in case you missed it:

https://youtu.be/7XnX-tB2OfM

November 2016 looks like Nature's version of Halloween, really, so we may be in for several scares after the actual holiday! If there is any silver lining to this, it is that December looks to be much more closer to normal and likely quieter than what November could be.

_FireRat

[FireRat]

UPDATE #1...11/4 @ 4 AM:

POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CYCLONE FORMING IN BAY OF BENGAL...INDIA TO BANGLADESH AND MYANMAR TO BE ON WATCH IN THE DAYS AHEAD.



Yes indeed, it looks like something is brewing in the North Indian Ocean east of India folks, and this is right as we enter the first of these super-powerful risk periods...the news article I will provide link to gave me chills. This is one of the most cyclone-prone risk periods, and Scenario 1 could become a reality. The storm is in its beginning phase and could be named Nada, ironically a spanish word for 'nothing'. Surely it has another meaning in this part of the world. All eyes on the Indian Ocean as we progress into the dangerous Nov 3-10 period!

News Link: http://www.thedailystar.net/country/...rd-bay-1309018

Hopefully nothing forms out of this!!

[FireRat]

Destructive Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake in New Zealand on 11/13 could mean more big ones on the way before the month is over.

Beware eapecially NOV 16-19 and NOV 23-25.

[FireRat]

A look back:

Nov 13: Monster Mag. 7.9 Quake in New Zealand led to much devastation across the more remote portion of that country. A 15 foot tsunami was produced, and parts of the sea bed were raised 6 meters, exposing marine life to the air! This event could have been very deadly if it had occurred near a major city.

Nov 22: Strong Magnitude 6.9 struck offshore Fukushima, Japan, causing a 5 foot tsunami and lots of scares. This may have been an aftershock of the 3/11/11 super quake.

Nov 24-25: This two day portion of the last risk period brought the most events, with several things happening at once around the world. Hurricane Otto reached Category 3 status just before striking Costa Rica and Nicaragua late on Nov 24 and November 25, crossing central america as a strong tropical storm maintaining it's name into the Eastern Pacific for the first time on record. This was also the latest major landfalling hurricane. Dozens of lives were lost in central America amid wind damage, floods and mudslides.

Offshore El Salvador around the same time, on Nov 24, a Magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck, causing a scare with tsunami warning, but luckily no major impacts. The day after, Nov 25, far western China was struck by a Magnitude 6.6 earthquake near the Himalayas, causing a few deaths and damage in a very remote area.

On Nov 25 again, freezing weather conditions led to a train's malfunction in Iran, causing it to stop and get struck by another train from behind, leading to one of Iran's worst train wrecks ever. 49 were killed with over 100 injured in the fiery disaster.

Last but not least, Italy was struck by devastating floods which began on Nov 23 and peaked on Nov 25. This was a fairly high number of natural disasters for a single day or two days' time. Devastating wildfires started in Tennesse on this day also, and raged out of control on 11/28, destroying towns near the Appalachian Mountains.
Hopefully December will bring less in the way of natural disasters.

UPDATE as of Nov 30:...Dec 1 prediction

I won't have the December thread ready until around Dec 3-4, yet there is one risk day, tomorrow Dec 1, that needs mention and is posted here:

DEC 1: Most likely event will be a Strong Earthquake, possibly Magnitude 6.5-7.0, which could cause low to medium impacts. Watch the areas that just recently were affected by the Late November quakes. New zealand, Japan, Western China, the Himalayan region, Central and South America...be on watch tomorrow, December 1 for a possible quake.