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Thread: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

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    United States Administrator Paul's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    I am very confident that we are not returning to any genuine gold or silver backed currencies. No major currency will be fully interchangeable with gold or silver.
    Ah - perhaps what we're headed to next will be sold to us as "gold backed currencies", but this would be based on central bank gold reserves, not on individually held gold.

    Perhaps the exchange rates between various major national (and, if the Euro survives, regional) currencies will be established by a world authority, based in part (so they would claim) on the gold reserves held by the central banks of each of those nations or regions.

    To justify this, we might need a catastrophy blamed on severe upsets in the exchange rates between the major currencies. I'm confident that our financial overlords could cook up such a crisis if the need arose.

    This would fundamentally change the nature of the world's monetary system to one that was controlled by the world authority that determined the exchange rates between various currencies, rather as the daily price of gold in U.S. dollars, British pounds and euros, is fixed by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA).

    Once that unfolds, the forex market, which is the foreign exchange market where various currencies (Dollar, Euro, Yuan, Yen, etc) are traded, could then be "put on the blockchain" (more accurately, put on a distributed ledger maintained by a consortium of major central and national banks).

    Then cryptocurrencies for individual or corporate use could be tied to this new, official, "gold backed", web of major currencies, enabling anyone to trade or exchange in any of these currencies, at the daily "fixed" currency exchange rates.

    In the end result, I could for example purchase a computer part from a producer in China, paying for it in a Dollar denominated cryptocurrency on my smartphone, with the producer receiving payment almost instantly in a Yuan denominated cryptocurrency, at the officially set exchange rate, minus a small fee.

    ===

    When I listen to Clif High, I go away momentarilly optimistic that cryptocurrencies are out of the reach of essentially unlimited central control and surveillance, and that they will lead to a world monetary system that is no longer based on debt-money.

    However after a good night's sleep, I return to my usual pessimism, expecting that this will eventually lead to a "new world monetary system", based on national gold reserves and on distributed ledger technology (such as the blockchain) by banks large and small and by end users all the way down to those holding only a smartphone.

    I return to expecting that this will continue to be a debt-money based system (new money is primarily lent into existence and then extracted back out by taxes, interest payments (usury) and fraud. Control of the payments for energy, even as energy migrates from petro-based to zero-point based, will remain a key mechanism for keeping the money flowing.

    ===

    In regards to the question of timing (when will this happen), I find my above comparison with Compuserve, AOL, Netscape and what is now the World Wide Web to be informative.

    Once the innovators (mostly geeks) get things working in some primitive form (which itself takes five or ten years) then a few companies manage to bring that technology to a much wide audience (the AOL in my above comparison).

    But what it takes for an AOL to succeed usually doesn't work for a more mature market. So then a major reworking of the technology, by some of the engineers involved in this effort, provides the basis for world-wide, almost ubiquitous, adoption of the technology. The companies that succeed in this mature phase are often companies that did not exist before, such as Google and Amazon. Their "genetic makeup" is adapted for such world-wide markets and technology infrastructure, from the time of their founding. Previously existing companies that are either effected or displaced by the new market either adapt or die. Most existing companies don't seriously adopt the new technology until a sizeable portion of their potential customer base requires it, and most individual and business users don't adopt it until it's the best, or required, way to access some business or service they need.

    It could be another five or ten years before the Amazons and Googles of this new world gold-crypto-debt money system become well known. Meanwhile we must first suffer through a global monetary collapse that justifies establishing a new world monetary system, based on centrally fixed exchange rates between the various major national or regional currencies.

    ===

    The threats of heavy handed surveillance and control by the central authorities are kept mostly hidden during the major period of growth, to allow the new system to take deep root in the habits and cultures of all its various users and customers.

    Once the roots are set deeply and there is no going back, then the system becomes a convenient platform for more overt surveillance and control, of both the masses and of individuals.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    found this interesting vid , too jargonny for me but the bloke on it makes a connection between bitcoin and AI , bit scary the implications , he rekons it's a trick to encourage people to vollunteer thier computers for the bitcoin( i don't understand the mechanics of it) but it's actually helping advance the AIs network growth



    computer savvies , help ?

    just went to share this on Kerrys page and found she'd posted it two hours ago
    Last edited by bluestflame; 10th November 2017 at 12:51. Reason: edit to add

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  5. Link to Post #103
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    .
    A note I just posted on my terminal:
    When $US become scarce, Bitcoin will crash.
    There are a couple of non-obvious steps that lead to this conclusion.

    First: As explained in this article Inflation and Counterfeit Credit, and as I have commented before in my financial posts here, the essential dynamic of the US Dollar ($US) is not that "the Fed is printing too many without backing", but rather that everyone (in the US) is borrowing too many of them - governments both federal and local, corporations both large and small, and individuals both wealthy and poor. Much of the rest of the world is also in excess debt, in various other currencies (though too often in $US denominated debt.)

    I am confident that we will not see a global crash open with hyperinflation of the US Dollar, but rather (initially at least) with scarcity of the US Dollar. Debt does not go away just because the borrower cannot repay, rather the borrower becomes more desparate to scrape up some money to continue to make payments, so as to avoid whatever are the penalties of default, foreclosure or bankruptcy.

    Everyone in US Dollar denominated debt, government, corporation or individual, will become desperate for Dollars. Everyone within reach of the US Taxman (do they try to tax Martians too?) will see increasing taxes to federal, state and local governments desperate to make bond payments. Everyone depending on $US denominated social benefits will see cuts in benefits. Everyone depending on $US denominated income will risk seeing pay cuts, if not outright job cuts, by their employer desperate to make debt payments.

    Governments, corporations and individuals of all sizes and shapes will be diving for dollars.

    Where will these Dollars will be found? Initially they will be found in the "high priced" markets of real estate, stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.

    Second: Currently Bitcoin is rushing upward. In the last year, the $US price of one Bitcoin has gone from $750 to $8000. A small portion of the "wealth effect" of booming stock, bond and real estate markets is rushing into the cryptocurrency market, mostly into Bitcoin in particular, to capture some of these profits. A small portion of the stock or bond market makes for an overwhelming portion of the cryptocurrency market. Thus the crypto prices are rocketing upward.

    Anyone who holds one or ten or a hundred Bitcoins, if cash is needed for rent or groceries or taxes or debt payments, expects to be able to sell a fraction of their Bitcoin for cash to pay the bills.

    As soon as the "wealth effect" of the major markets vanishes, while the debts of the individual, their employer and their governments persist, the flow of money into the cryptocurrency markets will turn into a flood of money out of the cryptocurrency markets.

    Cryptocurrency markets are not like stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate and other markets which each have some long term stabilizing factors. Cryptocurrency markets are almost entirely driven by short term pressures, whether up or down, hence quite capable of being extremely volatile and emotion (whether greed or fear) driven.

    What goes up ten fold in a year can collapse ten fold in a month (crashes are usually faster than rises.)

    In short: In the early stages of what I expect will be a global economic, financial and monetary crash, there will be a desperate shortage of $US (and doubtlessly various other currencies as well.) The excessive and unforgiving debt will suck up $US and many connected currencies. Cryptocurrencies, being the most volatile of the various "stores of spare money" at present will be the victim of the hardest crashes of $US denominated valuation.

    What I'm doing: While I will continue for now to trade my itsy-bitsy fraction of one Bitcoin, smiling at the rising value each day, I will trade with an itchy finger on the trigger, endeavoring to be one of the first to rush out the exit door, when I see the crash I expect start to unfold.

    This is the opposite of the strategy that I have with my silver coin. I expect that silver coin to survive the crash and the reconstitution of the US and World monetary system, holding or even improving its value in real goods. So I will hold onto that silver coin if I can.

    I fully expect cryptocurrencies to have a bright future in the Brave New World that awaits us on the other side of this global depression, but I don't expect Bitcoin or any other currently major cryptocurrency to be one of the survivors. I do expect gold and silver to survive, perhaps quite nicely.

    The Big Picture: The Banksters most fundamental strategy for achieving world domination is to get the world into excessive debt, and then to turn off the lending, which cuts off the supply of money (as money is lent into existence), thus forcing the world to be "repossessed" by the Banksters on default of the debt.
    Thus it shall be.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    bluesflame, the code for most cryptocurrencies is open source - any tech savvy programmer can look it up & conclude that there are no so called 'back doors' or code that is malicious. there are a lot of people sharing their opinion on the matter without being properly informed.. dont believe my opinion ether. ok?

    ohh & btw Paul, im very happy for your transformation & that you are playing with this tech. though its quite obvious that crypto is a hedge against fiat, therefore imho the demand would rapidly increase alongside metals & necessities.
    Last edited by Morbid; 22nd November 2017 at 06:14.

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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Morbid (here)
    bluesflame, the code for most cryptocurrencies is open source - any tech savvy programmer can look it up & conclude that there are no so called 'back doors' or code that is malicious. there are a lot of people sharing their opinion on the matter without being properly informed.. dont believe my opinion ether. ok?

    ohh & btw Paul, im very happy for your transformation & that you are playing with this tech. though its quite obvious that crypto is a hedge against fiat, therefore imho the demand would rapidly increase alongside metals & necessities.
    There is far more to cryptocurrencies than the core blockchain code that is open source. Any sufficiently complex ecosystem can be hacked, including certainly cryptocurrencies.

    It is far less than obvious that any particular cryptocurrency, such as in particular Bitcoin, will act as a reliable hedge (remain inversely correlated with) fiat currencies in times of economic or monetary collapse. The ebbs and flows of "wealth" (currency, stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, ...) in times of high volatility are seldom simple and predictable to those who are not either (1) damn lucky, or (2) damn insightful. The common "wisdom" as to how such things work and what they will do under stress is reliably unreliable.

    It is my intention, in these posts, to look at little bit past the common "wisdom", and explore how money, in its various forms, really works in our human civilization. I usually end up finding myself rejecting what is considered "quite obvious."
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  10. Link to Post #106
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Quote Posted by Morbid (here)
    any tech savvy programmer can look it up & conclude that there are no so called 'back doors' or code that is malicious. there are a lot of people sharing their opinion on the matter without being properly informed.. dont believe my opinion ether. ok?
    Any sufficiently complex ecosystem can be hacked, including certainly cryptocurrencies.
    Unfortunately, the facts contradict your opinion.

    Earlier this week on WolfStreet.com: Another Cryptocurrency Gets Hacked, Money Disappears. Here are the 30 Biggest Crypto Hacks.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Quote Posted by Morbid (here)
    any tech savvy programmer can look it up & conclude that there are no so called 'back doors' or code that is malicious. there are a lot of people sharing their opinion on the matter without being properly informed.. dont believe my opinion ether. ok?
    Any sufficiently complex ecosystem can be hacked, including certainly cryptocurrencies.
    Unfortunately, the facts contradict your opinion.

    Earlier this week on WolfStreet.com: Another Cryptocurrency Gets Hacked, Money Disappears. Here are the 30 Biggest Crypto Hacks.
    third parties get hacked, ofcourse - but not the protocol itself. the whole point of crypto is to use it directly, if people choose to hand over the keys & keep the promise, then its their fault entirely.

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  14. Link to Post #108
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Morbid (here)
    third parties get hacked, ofcourse - but not the protocol itself. the whole point of crypto is to use it directly, if people choose to hand over the keys & keep the promise, then its their fault entirely.
    You're engaging in rhetorical fallacy.

    On the one hand, you expect crypto-currencies to rise in part because they are unhackable, and the other hand, you blame the 99.9% of all current or potential users of crypto-currencies for any loss due to hacking, because it is "entirely" their fault that they didn't know how or were unable to avoid any exposure to being hacked.

    Should I blame all who have ever had their email spied upon or who have been hacked or harmed by something sent them through email because they did not know how to send and receive locally encrypted email or how to view potentially dangerous email safely? No. Only a few of us, perhaps including myself, know the technical details of email and encryption that well. It's not "entirely" everyone else's fault that email has various privacy and security failings.

    No ... in this case I would rather blame yourself, for posting replies that do not demonstrate any particular understanding of my above rather unconventional analysis, and rather just being, it seems to me, triggered by anything I say that differs from the conventional wisdom into responding with sometimes inconsistent, frequently shallow, regurgitations of currently popular memes.

    Some forms of discussion help illuminate a subject matter; some forms tend to confuse matters.

    I welcome the former, and lament the latter.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    I've been making heaps of money trading different crypto currencies against eachother during periods of market madness - so much that I started to wonder if what I am doing is immoral.

    I mean one mans gain is another mans loss right?
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Here is the latest interview by Arcane Bear with Clif High:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obl2dWUVwz0

    Published on Nov 24, 2017

    What a wonderful Thanksgiving treat. Our conversation with the brilliant mind. Clif High. From Blockchain and governance to banks and money. We talk about Neo, OMG, Veritaseum Populous and more. From the troubles with removing the BCH and BTC noise due to such similar linguistics and out to the far reaches of interstellar space.The joys of speaking with such a unique soul and mind. We talk new medicines and C60 as well as some very exciting times in the business models and the world we have evolving today!

    Remember to Like, Subscribe and Share the Crypto Love as we all learn and educate ourselves about this new emergent technology over the holiday weekend!


    Check out Clifs reports at: http://halfpasthuman.com

    Car of Mr.Lite
    Neo/OMG talk: 31:38
    Edge talk: 36:08
    Roadmap BTC 2018 ? : 36:40
    Bitconnect like idea's talk: 40:07
    C60 Talk: 41:20




    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    Quote Posted by Anchor (here)
    I've been making heaps of money trading different crypto currencies against eachother during periods of market madness - so much that I started to wonder if what I am doing is immoral.

    I mean one mans gain is another mans loss right?
    Remember there is no such thing as lack - there is abundance for all, and if this is the way you want to manifest it, it is doing no harm. I have a (very) modest investment in cryptos myself and I see it as a way for the regular Joe Blow to attain some semblance of personal wealth. It is also a great lesson in self autonomy and responsibility because you are regulating your own activity.

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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Should I consider investing in Crypto Currency or related other schemes or not as a short time investment?

  21. Link to Post #112
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Anchor (here)
    I've been making heaps of money trading different crypto currencies against eachother during periods of market madness - so much that I started to wonder if what I am doing is immoral.

    I mean one mans gain is another mans loss right?
    in this particular situation "one man's gain" was the printing press. now that you siphon that "wealth" away from fiats, you therefore bringing karmic justice to those, who established this debt based corporate monetary system. people like yourself are changing this world. hopefully for better.


    Quote Posted by Callista (here)
    Here is the latest interview by Arcane Bear with Clif High:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obl2dWUVwz0

    Published on Nov 24, 2017

    What a wonderful Thanksgiving treat. Our conversation with the brilliant mind. Clif High. From Blockchain and governance to banks and money. We talk about Neo, OMG, Veritaseum Populous and more. From the troubles with removing the BCH and BTC noise due to such similar linguistics and out to the far reaches of interstellar space.The joys of speaking with such a unique soul and mind. We talk new medicines and C60 as well as some very exciting times in the business models and the world we have evolving today!

    Remember to Like, Subscribe and Share the Crypto Love as we all learn and educate ourselves about this new emergent technology over the holiday weekend!


    Check out Clifs reports at: http://halfpasthuman.com

    Car of Mr.Lite
    Neo/OMG talk: 31:38
    Edge talk: 36:08
    Roadmap BTC 2018 ? : 36:40
    Bitconnect like idea's talk: 40:07
    C60 Talk: 41:20




    ¤=[Post Update]=¤

    Quote Posted by Anchor (here)
    I've been making heaps of money trading different crypto currencies against eachother during periods of market madness - so much that I started to wonder if what I am doing is immoral.

    I mean one mans gain is another mans loss right?
    Remember there is no such thing as lack - there is abundance for all, and if this is the way you want to manifest it, it is doing no harm. I have a (very) modest investment in cryptos myself and I see it as a way for the regular Joe Blow to attain some semblance of personal wealth. It is also a great lesson in self autonomy and responsibility because you are regulating your own activity.
    ahh well done Callista! its pleasure to witness such abundance of open mindness.
    Last edited by Morbid; 28th November 2017 at 10:16.
    "between 'lives' we all have a great laugh about the parts we have performed in the 'play', and look forward to and have great fun preparing the next chapters to act out."

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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by kanishk (here)
    Should I consider investing in Crypto Currency or related other schemes or not as a short time investment?
    This forum probably wont stand by any investment advice.

    That said it is very risky. Wild west level risks. You should only do it if you decide it is acceptable after you do thorough research.
    Last edited by Anchor; 28th November 2017 at 11:00.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    This is on the Fox business U'tube site and the others were on the u'tube link ,
    over my head as I do not dabble in stocks and shares but maybe of interest ?

    The fourth item I thought was interesting as the guest argues his point with the
    mainsteam financial analysts....

    In the RT vid/article the guest says its more of a wealth transfer , peer to peer
    currency, no middle man and more....How will governments get their tax's etc ?
    ================================================== =

    Bitcoin momentum is powerful: Bob Doll
    Fox Business
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S91FSLlYYPM
    Published on 28 Nov 2017
    Nuveen Asset Management Senior Portfolio Manager Bob Doll on
    his outlook for bitcoin and the markets.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Bitcoin headed toward $50K in a few years?



    Published on 28 Nov 2017

    Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead the future of bitcoin.

    =================================================

    Why are Millennials investing in Bitcoin?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3kkykT_qqs
    Published on 24 Nov 2017
    Generation Opportunity Executive Director Carrie Sheffield, attorney Christi Kunzig
    and former Trump surrogate Jason Meister on the holiday shopping season, the
    economic challenges facing Millennials and investing in Bitcoin.

    ==================================================

    Overstock CEO on the power of bitcoin


    Published on 20 Nov 2017
    Overstock.com CEO Patrick Byrne discusses his outlook for bitcoin and holiday shopping.

    =================================================
    =================================================

    Bitcoin cash ‘CEO’: We won’t need banks anymore

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Obc_cJba4

    Published on 20 Nov 2017...RT
    The digital currency Bitсoin, once a toy for computer nerds, is now soaring in price,
    triggering a new gold rush. Is it just another bubble, or a glimpse into a radically
    different financial future? We ask Rick Falkvinge, CEO of BitCoin Cash and founder
    of the Swedish Pirate Party.

    RT LIVE http://rt.com/on-air

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    John McAfee Bitcoin is officially UNSTOPPABLE!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTcuGd9SRug

    Published on 28 Nov 2017.....
    All phones are hackable and so are crypto currency wallets....
    Bitcoin Will Hit $500K | John McAfee Responds to Jamie Dimon
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClS2cPtDAHU
    Published on 8 Oct 2017..Watch this CNBC news where McAfee truly supports
    Bitcoin's bright future and predicts that Bitcoin will hit $500K in next three years.
    Also, he responds to Jaime Dimon about how he calculates the price of Bitcoin and
    how it's doesn't get created from thin air.
    Last edited by Cidersomerset; 28th November 2017 at 20:37.

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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Akasha (here)
    Quote Posted by mgray (here)
    Since there is no Plunge Protection Team for bitcoin, who will catch the falling knife after 40% price drop in September. My take.
    my take: buy now - it'll be $10k by xmas.
    My bad! I should have said by the end of November.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    .
    Looking at Bitcoin on a log chart, not a linear chart, makes more sense.

    Bitcoin for last year on a log chart
    ===

    In other words, the question is not how long it takes to add another $1000 to the Bitcoin price, but how long it takes to double the price.

    For the year 2017, Bitcoin has been doubling every two or three months.

    More precisely, since Bitcoin was about $961 at the beginning of Jan 2017, to its current value of about $10,264 some 11 months later, Bitcoin has increased on average 24% per month.

    This has been a fairly steady increase over the year, in terms of percentage per month. Of course 24% of $6000, where it was a month ago, is bigger than 24% of $961, where it was at the beginning of January. And of course it has not been that perfectly a steady increase, rather there have been faster and slower spurts every month or two.

    Between late March and late May, Bitcoin went up about 2.7 times in that two months.

    Between late Sept and late Nov (now), Bitcoin went up about 2.9 times in that two months ... a similar spurt.

    ===

    The fundamental questions, in any such situation, are
    1. whether the realizable future value warrants such higher prices, and
    2. if it eventually becomes obvious that the price vastly exceeds the value, when will that be.

    Money invested with Bernie Madoff, or in Dutch Tulip bulbs, or in the East India Trading company eventually turned out not to have real sustaining value, and was lost.

    Similarly, the fiat currencies of debt-money based systems, in which increasingly large sums of money are lent into existence, until the ongoing economic activity can no longer sustain the debt load, eventually turn out to not have sufficient real sustaining value, and are lost to the dusty pages of a history book (after the Banksters repossess the collateral and buy up the assets for pennies on the dollar.)

    No specific debt percentage, and no particular exponential rate of increase, distinguishes what will be an imminently collapsing bankruptcy or bubble bursting. Blowing bubbles in still air with quality soap bubble liquid will blow bigger bubbles than blowing them in windy air in a pin factory with cheap soap bubble liquid.

    So, one can make some half educated guesses as to whether a particular asset class is nearing a major collapse ... but history tells us that such matters are very hard to predict ... unless one is a wealthy and powerful insider who partially controls the timing of the collapse.

    So ... how does one trade such an asset class ... if one has the interest to learn about it and one has the financial resources that one chooses to risk on it?

    The two extremes are:
    1. Don't play in the game ... leave it for others. That's the right answer for most asset classes, for most people, for most of the time.
    2. Shoot for the moon ... investing in a major way, that would leave one bankrupt if the collapse came unexpectedly.
    For asset classes that are optional, such as Bitcoin at this time (few of us if any actually need to invest even a penny in Bitcoin today), if one decides to take an interest in them, then obviously start small, with money you wouldn't mind losing completely.

    Then if one still finds that asset class interesting (or necessary) to hold, what works for me is to skim profits as I go, so that at any point, if I woke up the next morning to find that the market had totally collapsed in my sleep, never to return again, I would still end up better than had I not played.

    The key is to avoid depending on any asset class that one figures has a significant risk of a major collapse. Don't go into debt for a "higher life style" expecting to pay off the debt with future Bitcoin profits. Always strive to keep one's "cash flow" requirements (what you need each month get by) comfortably below one's reliable income or expendable savings. This is not always possible, of course ... but as it is said among accountants: "Happiness is a positive cash flow."

    Don't choose option [B] above, shooting for the moon. It takes just one failed moon shot to really ruin your day ... for many, many days to come.

    ===

    In the case of Bitcoin, I currently figure that it's the "gateway drug" to a new world monetary order based on cryptocurrencies, which cryptocurrencies will, like the Internet, be both the source of much energetic activity outside of the established power structures and paradigms, and also become increasingly under the control of the excessively powerful and wealthy. This transition will take a couple of decades to become full blown and obvious to most.

    I doubt that the basic creation of most money will eventually end up under the control of crypto-miners, just as gold miners or paper currency printers did not end up being the wealthiest in their time. Rather I expect that some variant of debt-money, adapted to cryptocurrency, will become the dominant form(s) of money, in a couple of decades.

    Since Bitcoin in particular is not a good technical basis for the primary debt-money currencies of the world, I really doubt that Bitcoin, as currently constituted, or anything close to it, will end up being a major player, two or three decades from now.

    So ... I play in Bitcoin, skimming profits, foregoing the possibility of becoming a Bitcoin millionaire, but having fun in some long standing areas of interest to me: computers, economics, and investing.
    Last edited by Paul; 29th November 2017 at 04:18.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Here's the latest from Arcane Bear - are we seeing another Weimar Republic situation?



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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    BITCOIN to $15,000?! Market Updates

    Few are selling and the prices are going up:


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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Callista (here)
    Here's the latest from Arcane Bear - are we seeing another Weimar Republic situation?
    When a national currency loses value at a rapid, exponential, rate, that's a Weimar or Zimbabwe situation, and it has massive, disruptive, effects on that nation's economy.

    When a small peripheral commodity, token, stock or other such item gains value at a rapid, exponential, rate relative to one or more national currencies, then that's usually due to a dramatic shift in the perceived future prospects for the value of that item, which the future might, or might not, bear out.
    Last edited by Paul; 29th November 2017 at 20:57.
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  37. Link to Post #120
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Callista (here)
    BITCOIN to $15,000?! Market Updates

    Few are selling and the prices are going up:
    Well, quite likely, yes, Bitcoin will get to $15,000 soon enough.

    Technical chart analysis, such as the chap on this Youtube video is doing, is a useful tool for describing and communicating the price action that you're seeing in a chart and what you think are the dynamics behind that action. However, technical analysis only successfully predicts the future to the extent that what you're seeing is what ends up shaping the future.

    ===

    Here's one possible unfolding of future events that this Youtube technical analyst is not taking into consideration.

    One possible influence on current Bitcoin price action are the upcoming CME Group Bitcoin Futures Contracts. One could make a "killing" on these contracts by driving the Bitcoin price up ahead of time with aggressive purchasing, and then opening up a lot of short contracts on Bitcoin.

    Futures contracts, long or short, are slightly tricky to wrap one's head around.

    Let me put it this way. If you knew, with essentially 100% certainty, that Bitcoin was going to be $15,000 on 1 Jan 2018, then what would you pay, today, for the guaranteed right to purchase Bitcoin, on 1 Jan 2018, at the bargain price of $10,000? Well, if you had the money and wanted to play in this market, you'd pay almost $5,000. Any amount significantly less than $5,000 for that futures option would be an absolute bargain.

    Now, given that, if I, the Evil Cow, want to make some money, and have the ability to overwhelm that Bitcoin market with a flood of buy, or sell, orders, and if I want to make some money off you, here's what I could do.
    1. First I start driving the market up, with aggressive purchasing (as we're seeing now.) You become convinced that Bitcoin will reach $15,000 by 1 Jan 2018.
    2. Then I sell you some $10,000 contracts with a strike date of 1 Jan 2018, for say the bargain price of $4,000. Since you're confident that Bitcoin will be over $15,000 by then, you pay me now that $4,000 now for the right to purchase a Bitcoin from me, if you want to, for a bargain price of $10,000, when 1 Jan 2018 rolls around.
    3. If I guess wrong, and Bitcoin is at say $20,000 on 1 Jan 2018, then I lose big time, having to sell you a Bitcoin valued at $20,000 on 1 Jan 2018 for only $10,000.
    4. But if I have enough money that I can control the Bitcoin market, then I can drive the price of Bitcoin below $10,000 on 1 Jan 2018. If Bitcoin is at $9,000 on 1 Jan 2018, you aren't going to want to purchase a Bitcoin from me at the (no longer bargain) price of $10,000, and I get to keep your initial $4,000 free and clear.
    5. In that case, I also get to hold the Bitcoin that I purchased to drive the market up the first time, and I get to buy some more bargain priced Bitcoin (and to sell some more lucrative options betting the opposite way, to those who doubt that Bitcoin will rise again), on the way back up for the second time.
    Right now, in my estimation, the Bitcoin market is ripe for such manipulation.

    A substantial proportion of the $179 Billion market cap (current price times total number of Bitcoin outstanding) is "dead money" ... Bitcoin that cannot be, or will not be, traded anytime soon, regardless of what the market does. This includes millions of Bitcoin that can't be traded because their owner has lost their key. It also includes millions of Bitcoin held by those who have decided, for the time being to Hold On for Dear Life (HODL), and to continue to ride out the price volatility, not selling any Bitcoin regardless of what the short term market does.

    Of the remaining proportion of outstanding Bitcoin that might be traded, a substantial proportion of that is held by relatively novice market players, who are easily subject to emotional market manipulation ... a herd of nervous heifers in a strange pasture that can easily be stampeded one way or the other.

    The proportion of Bitcoin that is actively traded in the market at present is a small proportion of the total $179 Billion Bitcoin market cap, and its held by relatively weak and inexperienced hands. A Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan could easily overwhelm such a market and earn some easy money in the process, with relative impunity and anonymity.

    I suspect we would agree that about the only thing that would stop Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan from picking up some easy billions would be if they saw an alternative way to get even more money for even less effort.
    Last edited by Paul; 29th November 2017 at 19:23.
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