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Thread: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

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    United States Avalon Member mgray's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    I've written much this week on bitcoin on my blog and the price movements. But today's entry suggests while the bank CEOs do protest too much, the traders on the currency desks are all in and then out and then back in on the dips to dress up their trading books going into the end of the year.
    When in doubt, do the next right thing.
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  3. Link to Post #142
    Australia Avalon Member Anchor's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Somethings up. I smell a Rat.

    Bitfinex (the largest crypto exchange), incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, CEO of no fixed abode, also the CEO of Tether.

    Tether is a crypto that has one coin backed by "audited" reserves of 1 dollar, so in theory for every coin Tether holds 1 dollar. You see the price of coin listed in USDT on many exchanges including Bitfinex which is how Tether is mainly used. So on these exchange you don't swap USD for Bitcoin, you swap Tether for Bitcoin. Your gateway into purchasing bitcoin necessarily involves you purchasing Tether. This obviously means your clean dollars are used to buy Tether, which then lets you buy whatever is priced in Tether.

    Now, what if Tether company are producing USDT which are not back by USD?

    A virtual equivalent of an empty Fort Knox, and with the federal reserve like powers to "mint" virtual dollars.

    [Side story: Bitfinex got hacked a few times with coins stolen but are still alive and kicking and very recently Tether got hacked and 31millon USDT was taken, but on discovery the Tether company hard forked their blockchain and isolated the stolen assets (which are not backed by $)]

    So Bitfinex and Tether already have imperfect records and are, to say the least shadowy - but who cares right?

    Those in the know could massively pump the price by buying coin with free money.

    This wont come to light though until people want to redeem their coin for Tether and by then all the money will probably be gone!

    If Tether cant provide dollars and people catch on, then you will smash all the exchanges that use it to trade against the USD. They will block withdraws!

    What could trigger that? So far as I can see practically ANYTHING at this point.

    If this all plays out as my hunch suggests, the consequences will be disastrous.

    The lure of easy profits right now is driving people to selling altcoins to buy Bitcoin or buy bitcoin with real dollars. All at pumped bitcoin prices. So all the eggs are going in the bitcoin basket - BAD IDEA!! Diversify. Keep some other Cryptos like Litecoin, Dash, Ripple, Ethereum, Monero etc - they may be the only survivors.

    If this is a scam like I suspect, then it is a pretty big one, one of the biggest ever.

    If Bitfinex and/or Tether crash. It will be like MtGox on steroids - with the market capitulating within hours as people try to sell - but there will be no dollars - all stolen.

    When this happens the transaction load on the Bitcoin network will be massive and people will have to wait for days to move their coins or pay exorbitant fees for the transaction, consequently exchanges will block withdrawals and increase peoples angst further. Lots of people will loose lots.

    Furthermore, if Bitfinex crashes as part of this scam, then I expect that all the Bitcoin held on that exchange's hot and cold wallets will be stolen making it easier for someone to acquire such a large amount that the markets can be manipulated further later on.

    Also Bitcoin and other cryptos will crash to very low values - practically worthless (this is when I will be buying more!)

    If true, objectives to this scam are obvious:
    • Steal laundered USD
    • Steal bitcoin and other alts
    • Specifically destroy and undermine the value of bitcoin in the mother of all market corrections and/or frauds and damage confidence in crypto currency generally for a long time.

    Counter measures for your portfolio:
    • Consider any crypto or dollar assets you hold on an exchange as being at high risk of total loss.
    • Only keep on the exchange what you can afford to loose.
    • Diversify your crypto holdings.
    • Learn how to transfer crypto off your exchange while you still can and into a safe wallet where the keys to the crypto are under your exclusive control.

    When this correction or crash happens, and it will at some point even if I am wrong about the above, Bitcoin will recover, but it will take a time. This has happened before, it will happen again.

    IMHO "Bitcoin" is something we will need for the future, but it is being abused in the present.

    Be careful out there.

    Thanks

    Anchor..
    Last edited by Anchor; 8th December 2017 at 01:38.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    interesting view Anchor...i might need to look into it. and also Nicehash got hacked.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...source=twitter
    Last edited by apokalypse; 7th December 2017 at 14:10.

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  7. Link to Post #144
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Seriously, from 14k to 16k in a day....what happen? is this real deal or a some sort of scam or what ever?

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  9. Link to Post #145
    United States Administrator Paul's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Anchor (here)
    IMHO "Bitcoin" is something we will need for the future, but it is being abused in the present.

    Be careful out there.

    Thanks

    Anchor..
    Yes - such risks are (in my view, too) seriously present.

    In my view, cryptocurrencies are something we (the 99.99% who "participate in" the monetary system) will need in the future, but not Bitcoin.

    Rather the catastrophic collapse of Bitcoin, altcoins, and cryptocurrency exchanges, perhaps along the lines you describe, will be used, rather as great (or faked) acts of terror, disaster, war and theft have been used so many times before, to usher in a new "safe, regulated" regime.

    My guess is that we're not quite there yet ... first some more people will be drawn into Bitcoin, so that they have some "skin" in the game, and thus will "welcome" the regulating hand of our overlords following such a disaster, to protect us from the dangerous bandits of cryptos who stole so much, in the infancy of cryptocurrencies. Presently people are being drawn into crypos in rushing mobs, drawn in by the exploding price action and the salesmanship of the earlier adopters, who can afford to retire from their previous "day job" and spend their time telling all who will listen why cryptos are so wonderful.

    It's like the US stock market rush of the 1920's. When your shoe shine boy tells you he's going to retire to a chalet in the mountains that he bought on his Bitcoin profits ... run for the hills ... ahead of him.

    In the US, the stock market crash of 1929 was not the end of the common man's participation in the stock markets. Rather it was more of a beginning. The children of those who lost their shirts in 1929 would become the baby boomers who invested their life savings in IRA's, 401K's, and other retirement plans, all based on massive stock and bond purchases. The future of cryptocurrencies will not repeat exactly, but it sure might rhyme.

    I like listening to some of the crypto fans, especially at present Clif High. Clif is my kind of smart old computer programming geek. But he is soooo "talking his book", and he has a history of spending years on such "projects", as he did with the December 2012 forecasts, leading us lemmings off the cliff (off the Clif Highs?)

    It's a dynamic game ... we're like frogs jumping from one lily pad to the next, as one pad falls beneath the rushing waters and the next springs up.

    I'd also guess that the "next lily pad" will be silver, but I'm quite nervous about that guess, as I usually am about such matters.

    One should always be spending a bit of time playing "what if" in one's mind ... what if the tides rush in the other way, or fire comes, or draught comes, or that lily pad one's standing on turns out to be the back of a hungry alligator.
    Last edited by Paul; 7th December 2017 at 18:43.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    The number of people that are charging enormous amounts of money for crypto courses has exploded in the last month. I'm not sure how many actually participate but something tells me that bitcoin may have a run to more than $20k before any major correction. (This is not a financial advise! LOL)
    Back to day job...
    I should add Paul that I fee the same way about silver. Cliff is prepping the sheep!
    The ultimate ignorance is the rejection of something you know nothing about and refuse to investigate.
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    United States Avalon Member mgray's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    If Thursday 's trading in bitcoin did not prove my therum that hedge funds are piling into the crypto to "dress their books" nothing will. Look at the volatility
    When in doubt, do the next right thing.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by mgray (here)
    If Thursday 's trading in bitcoin did not prove my therum that hedge funds are piling into the crypto to "dress their books" nothing will. Look at the volatility
    If this weeks bitcoin trading is to dress the books ... then when is the show over and the hedgies get to return to their dressing room and remove their costumes?

    When can the hedgies move money back out of bitcoin into whatever they want to play with in the next quarter, without impacting this quarters results ?
    Last edited by Paul; 8th December 2017 at 04:36.
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  17. Link to Post #149
    UK Avalon Member Cidersomerset's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Bubble , no bubble some interesting articles from yesterdays high casino
    speculating according to various views. Despite hacks , theft and scares
    crypto currencies seem to be here to stay Russia and other countries are
    making positive noises ....


    Bit by Bit: Bitcoin sets another record reaches $18,000 per single token

    Published on 7 Dec 2017
    Bitcoin’s unstoppable bull run continues with the world’s most valuable
    cryptocurrency beating its own records day after day.The crypto-currency
    has once again defied nay-sayers by spiking above 18,000 dollars at one
    point today.

    ==================================================
    ==================================================



    Bitcoin hits $17,000 as bubble fears mount

    Bitcoin briefly crossed through the $17,000 (£12,615) mark
    in volatile Asian trading, extending its record-breaking run.

    The cryptocurrency has soared about 70% this week according
    to Coindesk.com, despite fresh warnings of a dangerous bubble.

    Its dramatic rise has been likened to a "charging train with no brakes".

    As concerns mount, an industry group has warned plans to start
    bitcoin futures trading were "rushed through".

    In a choppy Asian session, the digital currency breached new highs
    before falling back to about $16,000.

    Critics have said Bitcoin is going through a bubble similar to the
    dotcom boom, but others argue it is rising in price because it is
    crossing into the financial mainstream

    read more.....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42275564

    ================================================== =
    ================================================== =
    John McAfee: Buy Bitcoin Now! (No bubble)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0V_9rm3TJ8
    Published on 3 Dec 2017...RT
    LATEST: John McAfee has predicted that Bitcoin will reach a value of $1m by 2020
    and that he'll eat his own dinkle if he's wrong.McAfee had previously pledged to
    nom-a-knob if it reached half a mill, but the recent acceleration in the value of the
    cryptocurrency has made him up his game.
    ================================================== =
    ================================================== =

    As Bitcoin soars, what will 2018 bring for cryptocurrencies? $70 million worth stolen.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B27nCSqbMoU
    Published on 7 Dec 2017....Fox Buis.
    Fireapps CEO Wolfgang Koester reacts to reports that Bitcoin surpassed $15,000 in
    trading on Thursday, speculating what the next year could bring for the
    controversial cryptocurrency.

    ================================================== ==
    ================================================== ==

    Bitcoin rises to $17K

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BgT3k1JN4aU
    Published on 7 Dec 2017...Fox buis
    Capitalistpig Asset Management’s Jonathan Hoenig and Lido Isle Advisors’
    Jason Rotman explain the frenzy surrounding the cryptocurrency bitcoin.

    ================================================== ==
    ================================================== ==

    Bitcoin crosses $16K mark

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_Golz504k4
    Published on 7 Dec 2017...Fox Buis
    The King’s College associate professor Brian Brenberg on what’s
    fueling the surge of bitcoin.

    ================================================== ==
    ================================================== ==

    Bitcoin.com CEO Says Futures Will Drive Up Bitcoin Price

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51T3c9t95b0
    Published on 7 Dec 2017...Bloomberg.
    Dec.07 -- Roger Ver, chief executive officer at Bitcoin.com, discusses the powerful
    innovation of cryptocurrencies and his thoughts on investing in bitcoin cash. He
    speaks with Bloomberg's David Westin on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

    ================================================== ==
    ================================================== ==

    Bitcoin: Is the bubble about to burst? ....passing $18 ,000 at one time...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H6zzWIu7Vk
    Published on 7 Dec 2017...CBC
    Some experts say the bitcoin bubble is about to burst, but analyst Ronnie
    Moas says the crytpocurrency will become the biggest currency in the world.
    To read more: http://cbc.ca/1.4436149
    Last edited by Cidersomerset; 8th December 2017 at 10:47.

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    United States Avalon Member mgray's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Quote Posted by mgray (here)
    If Thursday 's trading in bitcoin did not prove my therum that hedge funds are piling into the crypto to "dress their books" nothing will. Look at the volatility
    If this weeks bitcoin trading is to dress the books ... then when is the show over and the hedgies get to return to their dressing room and remove their costumes?

    When can the hedgies move money back out of bitcoin into whatever they want to play with in the next quarter, without impacting this quarters results ?
    Third week in Dec. the selling should happen to book the returns for year end reports.

    Looking at Sunday night at 6pm in EST to see bitcoin price action as CBOE futures trading begins.
    When in doubt, do the next right thing.
    My blog: http://grayseconomy.com

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    Avalon Member Carmody's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    I've been looking at the crypto currency markets as of late. My first serious look at the big the small and how it integrates as a system of flow.

    This is not a docom boom, except in that the dotcom boom raised the bar on silicon valley in a way where the raised bar was there to stay. Ie, a new plateau and way of doing things, was the end result, in the final tally of all the gains and losses. It is important to understand that the breakout of any situation (regarding human integration in this sort of complex way) will have a certain amount of flailing about as part of it's emergence. sure, bust existed for the dotcom boom. Bust was the part that people remember. The important part was that a boom took place and that boom... is a strong part and parcel of the internet and connected world you see today. Think of it as 'an inevitable bust' all you want (if inclined) but that is not the reality. The result will be an entirely different playing field taking place on a new level.
    Last edited by Carmody; 9th December 2017 at 17:37.
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    Avalon Member Carmody's Avatar
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Anchor (here)
    Somethings up. I smell a Rat.

    Bitfinex (the largest crypto exchange), incorporated in the British Virgin Islands, CEO of no fixed abode, also the CEO of Tether.

    Tether is a crypto that has one coin backed by "audited" reserves of 1 dollar, so in theory for every coin Tether holds 1 dollar. You see the price of coin listed in USDT on many exchanges including Bitfinex which is how Tether is mainly used. So on these exchange you don't swap USD for Bitcoin, you swap Tether for Bitcoin. Your gateway into purchasing bitcoin necessarily involves you purchasing Tether. This obviously means your clean dollars are used to buy Tether, which then lets you buy whatever is priced in Tether.

    Now, what if Tether company are producing USDT which are not back by USD?

    A virtual equivalent of an empty Fort Knox, and with the federal reserve like powers to "mint" virtual dollars.

    [Side story: Bitfinex got hacked a few times with coins stolen but are still alive and kicking and very recently Tether got hacked and 31millon USDT was taken, but on discovery the Tether company hard forked their blockchain and isolated the stolen assets (which are not backed by $)]

    So Bitfinex and Tether already have imperfect records and are, to say the least shadowy - but who cares right?

    Those in the know could massively pump the price by buying coin with free money.

    This wont come to light though until people want to redeem their coin for Tether and by then all the money will probably be gone!

    If Tether cant provide dollars and people catch on, then you will smash all the exchanges that use it to trade against the USD. They will block withdraws!

    What could trigger that? So far as I can see practically ANYTHING at this point.

    If this all plays out as my hunch suggests, the consequences will be disastrous.

    The lure of easy profits right now is driving people to selling altcoins to buy Bitcoin or buy bitcoin with real dollars. All at pumped bitcoin prices. So all the eggs are going in the bitcoin basket - BAD IDEA!! Diversify. Keep some other Cryptos like Litecoin, Dash, Ripple, Ethereum, Monero etc - they may be the only survivors.

    If this is a scam like I suspect, then it is a pretty big one, one of the biggest ever.

    If Bitfinex and/or Tether crash. It will be like MtGox on steroids - with the market capitulating within hours as people try to sell - but there will be no dollars - all stolen.

    When this happens the transaction load on the Bitcoin network will be massive and people will have to wait for days to move their coins or pay exorbitant fees for the transaction, consequently exchanges will block withdrawals and increase peoples angst further. Lots of people will loose lots.

    Furthermore, if Bitfinex crashes as part of this scam, then I expect that all the Bitcoin held on that exchange's hot and cold wallets will be stolen making it easier for someone to acquire such a large amount that the markets can be manipulated further later on.

    Also Bitcoin and other cryptos will crash to very low values - practically worthless (this is when I will be buying more!)

    If true, objectives to this scam are obvious:
    • Steal laundered USD
    • Steal bitcoin and other alts
    • Specifically destroy and undermine the value of bitcoin in the mother of all market corrections and/or frauds and damage confidence in crypto currency generally for a long time.

    Counter measures for your portfolio:
    • Consider any crypto or dollar assets you hold on an exchange as being at high risk of total loss.
    • Only keep on the exchange what you can afford to loose.
    • Diversify your crypto holdings.
    • Learn how to transfer crypto off your exchange while you still can and into a safe wallet where the keys to the crypto are under your exclusive control.

    When this correction or crash happens, and it will at some point even if I am wrong about the above, Bitcoin will recover, but it will take a time. This has happened before, it will happen again.

    IMHO "Bitcoin" is something we will need for the future, but it is being abused in the present.

    Be careful out there.

    Thanks

    Anchor..
    Thanks for that, especially the thing about tether.

    I noticed that bitcoin was being used the same way on exchange platforms, that you had to come in and go out via bitcoin. That bitcoin was being used as a valuation/rest island for crypto swimmers. Thus the 'safety zone' will go up in value from that alone.

    This can only force, like a porcupine quill..an increase in the value of bitcoin. And a whole swath of other aspects that make the price hold - a long story on human psychology and the surrounding aspects of the entire sphere of connections...is critical to that explanation. You are saying (from my reading) that the tether folks are trying the same game. One is probably copying the other. Forced hegemony is one way of explaining it.

    Crypto currencies are here to stay. What their final form is, and the path to that more final stable (in and across time) form.....is part of the question that most people have.
    Last edited by Carmody; 9th December 2017 at 18:00.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by mgray (here)
    If Thursday 's trading in bitcoin did not prove my therum that hedge funds are piling into the crypto to "dress their books" nothing will. Look at the volatility
    I was wondering who did the driving, there. This is not unexpected.

    To traders from the trading world, this is a delicious open field of the highest order. For them, it would be like a prizefighter, in the ring... dealing with something akin to a 7 year old girl.

    As for Tether or Bitcoin being used as the in/out on the given exchange platforms, this only gives the traders, hedgies or whomever - a multi-tiered lever. Which should not be allowed. Big red flags all over that one.

    The exchanges want it to be that way ....as the monies they earn are far higher that way, obviously.

    The big question is what happens in the crypto world after bitcoin hits the futures market. There are only so many viable directions things can go. One or two are fairly obvious, I like to think, but...
    Last edited by Carmody; 9th December 2017 at 21:59.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Carmody (here)
    Crypto currencies are here to stay. What their final form is, and the path to that more final stable (in and across time) form.....is part of the question that most people have.
    Crypto assets in general are here to stay, not just as currency, but also to track stocks, bonds, securities, futures options, taxes, fines, banking debt and savings, property titles, government licenses, voting, passports, trade notes (such as 90 day bills used in exchange for material goods passing through the supply chain), identification (of items, animals, robots and humans - such as "putting your birth certificate on the block chain, with DNA markers", and/or ID chips), ...

    The weakness with the current crypto's, starting with Bitcoin, is that they aren't well grounded by either powerful institutions (major corporations, nations or the planet's elite families) nor by any major portion of humanity, in the major essentials of our civilization - money (the major currencies that are so grounded), energy, resources, labor (physical or mental), and power.

    Rather the current crypto's are "frothy" ... easily driven up (or, as I suspect we will see within the year) down by a factor of ten, and the current crypto's are easily gated/controlled at their periphery by government and corporate regulations, laws, and practices. where they are exchanged for "real" goods and services or for more persistent stores of wealth.

    The current crypto's are "frothy" like penny stocks, where the aggressive buying or selling by a relatively few people can cause massive swings in price. The concept of "market capitalization", where one multiplies the total outstanding issues (whether stocks or in this case, bitcoins) by the price of the most recent trade is deceptively misleading in cases like this. There is no way in Hades that the majority of the currently outstanding Bitcoin could all be exchanged, in the immediate future, for $14,536.50 USD per Bitcoin (the price, as I write this, of Bitcoin) or even for anything remotely resembling that price.

    I am presuming that the major nations and corporations (and whoever are the elite bastards behind them) will endeavor to connect up crypto's to their main instruments of powering and controlling human civilization as fits their intentions ... and as with other such major technology breakthroughs such as fire, the wheel, the printing press, gunpowder, steel, coal, oil and the Internet, there will be an ongoing struggle between the interests of humanity, of the planet, and of the elite bastards.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Carmody (here)
    The big question is what happens in the crypto world after bitcoin hits the futures market.
    If I understand correctly, the CBOE and the CME Bitcoin futures markets not going to be trading in Bitcoin, but rather in cash settled options on the price of Bitcoin.

    So far, I can imagine the following feedback loops between the Bitcoin futures market, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

    Traders in the Bitcoin priced, cash settled, future markets might endeavor to drive the Bitcoin market up or down, by flooding US Dollars in and out of the Bitcoin market, aggressively buying and selling Bitcoin. As I observed in my previous post above, this can cause major moves in the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate, which would have a major influence on the value of futures options (which are $USD denominted bets on the future "price" (Bitcoin/USD) of Bitcoin. Future market traders like trading in markets when (1) they can control the market and (2) they can play with high leverage.

    The future market traders could also drive the Bitcoin market up or down by trading back and forth between Bitcoin and other alt-coins. In the space of a few hours, the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate (aka Bitcoin price) can be driven up or down in major swings, by moving between Bitcoin and other alt-coins such as Ethereum, EOS, Dash, Litecoin, or Bitcoin Cash. This is a more efficient way to manipulate the Bitcoin/USD rate, once one has a substantial investment in the crypto-currency space. What's "substantial" (able to cause major market moves) in the crypto space is peanuts (puny) compared to what's substantial in the major stock, bond, commodity and forex markets.

    But, as Clif High observed in a video of his that I watched a couple of days ago (I forget now which video), this potential manipulation can go both ways. The futures markets are not open all the time, whereas the crypto-currency markets are open around the clock, around the world. If the Bitcoin/USD rate shifts dramatically "over night", while the futures markets are closed, this could put serious stress on the CBOE and CME, when margin calls on substantial volumes of Bitcoin futures cannot be met. The CBOE and CME have chosen to saddle up and try to ride a bucking bronco the likes of which they might never have seen before.
    Last edited by Paul; 9th December 2017 at 20:26.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    The essence of "the blockchain" is that secure data communication, storage and computation will become a widely available utility and commodity, over the coming decades.

    Just as postal services, telephony, electricity, roads, and shipping have become world-wide commodity services over the last century, so will the secure handling and storage of digital records and transactions become a world-wide commodity service over the coming decades.

    Presently, such handling and storage of digital records and transactions is done in a thousand "ivory tower" silos. Your bank controls your bank account records and activity. Your local government controls the titles and leans to your real property. Cede and Company holds your stock certificates. In each case, the record storage and transaction processing is controlled by a powerful party with potentially deep conflicts of interest. Much "rent" (taxes, fees, penalties, fraud, surveillance, ...) is extracted at such "toll gates" on human activity.

    As this is converted to a "utility" then the providers of this digital record and transaction keeping will become separated from those with great vested interests (but only after some kicking and screaming). Then only the most powerful will still have their hands on such levers of power.

    If Dell computers doesn't like that I purchased a Toshiba computer instead, or that I built my own computer from parts found on Newegg, then Dell computers cannot exert any influence over the electrical (or Internet) feeds to my home, in an effort to retaliate or to coerce or to encourage me to purchase Dell computers instead.

    However if I seriously piss off the NSA or CIA ... my Internet could become flakey, or my electricity suffer outages.

    This is about disintermediating some of the "middle men" who have become quite powerful. They will not go quietly into the night.
    Last edited by Paul; 9th December 2017 at 21:39.
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  33. Link to Post #157
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Rather the current crypto's are "frothy" ... easily driven up (or, as I suspect we will see within the year) down by a factor of ten
    This Zerohedge article makes a similar point, by looking at the different prices for Bitcoin, across multiple Bitcoin exchanges: Bitcoin's Growing Price Gap Between Exchanges Creates Potential Headaches For Futures Trading.

    If cryptocurrency exchanges were a more liquid market, with large numbers of well funded traders looking for any slight pattern or discrepancy in the pricing, then such large differences, sometimes over $1000 USD per Bitcoin, in pricing across multiple exchanges, would not be possible.

    But in a market such as the current cryptocurrency market, there is a lack of such stabilizing liquidity.

    The Zerohedge article concludes by observing that this could pose a risk for these new Bitcoin futures markets, on the CBOE and CME.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Paul (here)
    Quote Posted by Carmody (here)
    The big question is what happens in the crypto world after bitcoin hits the futures market.
    If I understand correctly, the CBOE and the CME Bitcoin futures markets not going to be trading in Bitcoin, but rather in cash settled options on the price of Bitcoin.

    So far, I can imagine the following feedback loops between the Bitcoin futures market, and Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

    Traders in the Bitcoin priced, cash settled, future markets might endeavor to drive the Bitcoin market up or down, by flooding US Dollars in and out of the Bitcoin market, aggressively buying and selling Bitcoin. As I observed in my previous post above, this can cause major moves in the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate, which would have a major influence on the value of futures options (which are $USD denominted bets on the future "price" (Bitcoin/USD) of Bitcoin. Future market traders like trading in markets when (1) they can control the market and (2) they can play with high leverage.

    The future market traders could also drive the Bitcoin market up or down by trading back and forth between Bitcoin and other alt-coins. In the space of a few hours, the Bitcoin/USD exchange rate (aka Bitcoin price) can be driven up or down in major swings, by moving between Bitcoin and other alt-coins such as Ethereum, EOS, Dash, Litecoin, or Bitcoin Cash. This is a more efficient way to manipulate the Bitcoin/USD rate, once one has a substantial investment in the crypto-currency space. What's "substantial" (able to cause major market moves) in the crypto space is peanuts (puny) compared to what's substantial in the major stock, bond, commodity and forex markets.

    But, as Clif High observed in a video of his that I watched a couple of days ago (I forget now which video), this potential manipulation can go both ways. The futures markets are not open all the time, whereas the crypto-currency markets are open around the clock, around the world. If the Bitcoin/USD rate shifts dramatically "over night", while the futures markets are closed, this could put serious stress on the CBOE and CME, when margin calls on substantial volumes of Bitcoin futures cannot be met. The CBOE and CME have chosen to saddle up and try to ride a bucking bronco the likes of which they might never have seen before.
    No margin call. No buying on margin. One can hold. The effects of this are easily seen, and are in line with what to expect with the inexperienced doing the holding. (in the market they've been privy to see evolve in front of them. This is a very false security or sense of it) (the horse died! Funny, he ain't never done that before!)

    Bittrex, for example, is probably making about $10-15m a day right now, with the numbers being what they are. Their numbers should be about $5B a year average, 12 months from now. That's based on today's estimate, it will likely be higher. This is not an exact number, but just a quick guess. The other big exchanges are probably in the same ballpark, if their volume is similar. Like the store selling shovels to miners in the gold rush..they're the only ones who reliably make money. I could be completely wrong about this part, though. I'm not looking closely enough yet...
    Last edited by Carmody; 9th December 2017 at 22:11.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    Quote Posted by Carmody (here)
    No margin call. No buying on margin.
    Maybe you or I don't trade on margin, but traders in these Bitcoin futures markets can trade on margin, as mentioned here for the CBOE or here for the CME Bitcoin futures markets.
    Last edited by Paul; 10th December 2017 at 01:10.
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    Default Re: Bitcoin, the war on cash, Clif High, and the NSA's long range plans

    I mean the crypto markets as they stand, today. No margin, no buying on margin. People trade and hold. The 'normal' markets depend on some form of whiplash motion, it seems, so we shall see. These two systems will not specifically be in conflict, but the educated and worldly one will definitely be 'educating' the newbie one. Real real soon.

    The next domino to fall from that...is...
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