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Thread: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

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    New Zealand Avalon Member KiwiElf's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Check out Ventusky's computer Weather modelling for the 19th September; Hurricane Jose growing to almost TWICE the size of Irma, and another Hurricane forming off the West Mexican Coast, below Los Angeles... (handy tool - quite accurate given how quickly weather modelling can now change every few hours - use the calendar tool in the bottom left corner of the page...)

    https://www.ventusky.com/

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Quote Posted by viking (here)
    Looks like Jose is already a cat 4!

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...prclt=0Q335p9r

    Viking
    Predictably Jose will become a Category 5 within 24-hours (perhaps "they" need to add a "Category 6" - which is what Irma should be - Irma is 5 x the size and power of Andrew ...)
    Last edited by KiwiElf; 9th September 2017 at 09:30.

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    Sweden Avalon Member transiten's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Just a thought from radio today; there has been hughe floods in India which just make small advertisments in meda, goes for Sweden too; we're all focused ont the US and now also there is a big military training "Aurora" going on in Sweden with several NATO countries and we are not allied to NATO which give rise to big protests over here.

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    I see on the wind map today that there are big changes to the general scene.

    Jose has taken a turn northwards and looks like it will not be going anywhere near TargeT.

    Irma has shifted south right onto Cuba which is a sudden direction change, I think.

    The other one that was building near the Mexican Coast has vanished completely, GONE !
    .................................................. my first language is TYPO..............................................

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...


    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...?cone#contents






    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html





    Event 1: Infrared Loop (Jose)

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif

    Note: Imagery and loops on this site are intended for informational purposes only, they are not considered "operational". This web site should not be used to support operational observation, forecasting, emergency, or disaster mitigation operations, either public or private. In addition, we do not provide weather forecasts on this site — that is the mission of the National Weather Service. Please contact them for any forecast questions or issues.


    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
    Last edited by Hervé; 9th September 2017 at 14:00.
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Last edited by Hervé; 9th September 2017 at 15:49.
    "La réalité est un rêve que l'on fait atterrir" San Antonio AKA F. Dard

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    Virgin Islands Avalon Member TargeT's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Quote Posted by KiwiElf (here)
    Quote Posted by viking (here)
    Looks like Jose is already a cat 4!

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...prclt=0Q335p9r

    Viking
    Predictably Jose will become a Category 5 within 24-hours (perhaps "they" need to add a "Category 6" - which is what Irma should be - Irma is 5 x the size and power of Andrew ...)
    its headed north into the ocean, jose won't bother anyone
    There was a 1: 400,000,000,000,000 chance of you being born: what have you done with your miraculous life today?

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Not long ago this twitter account uploaded a video from Long Island, Bahamas where the ocean water is missing. It appears to be pushed towards Florida.

    https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585
    The more you are motivated by LOVE, the more fearless & free your action will be.

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Latest from Mr Wigington...

    Quote Posted by Star Tsar (here)
    Geoengineering Watch



    Global Alert News

    Published 9th September 2017

    Though countless forms of anthropogenic damage to the climate system have all taken their toll, now the full fury of weather warfare is being released on the US population. Paradigm disintegration is not coming, it is here, and will continue to unfold. So many will only choose to wake up when there is no other option, such is the nature of humanity. Weather cataclysm is unfolding all over the world, this is just the beginning. Could the power structure also be waging biological warfare in the flooded aftermath of countless extreme weather events? How much of the power structure’s agenda is yet unknown? How dire is the equation we collectively face?
    Ever more blatant and desperate actions of the power structure are increasing their vulnerability to disintegration from within. If we all pull together in the critical effort to pull back the curtain, we can accelerate this process. This effort must be borne by us all..

    Supporting Link: http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/g...tember-9-2017/


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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    A couple of live video streams to watch for those interested:

    Southern most point, Key West.


    Southern most beach resort, Key West.


    Unknown location, Key West


    Unknown location, Key West


    Downtown Miami, viewing East


    Downtown Miami, viewing South


    It's really starting to get rough out there.

    (Edit: Added a couple more.)
    Last edited by alexius; 9th September 2017 at 20:54.
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Hurricane Irma hits Florida coast Live updates

    RT
    Published time: 7 Sep, 2017 21:49
    Edited time: 9 Sep, 2017 20:52
    Get short URL



    The skyline is seen as the outerbands of Hurricane Irma start to reach Florida on September 9, 2017 in Miami, Florida. © Joe Raedle / Getty Images / AFP

    Hurricane Irma, downgraded to category 3, has approached the Florida coast, bringing high winds and heavy rains. Irma having already caused death and widespread destruction in the Caribbean, more than a quarter of Florida’s population has been ordered to evacuate.

    09 September 2017 21:00 GMT
    As well as the southern coast of Florida, Hurricane Irma is also battering the north coast of Cuba, where the town of Caibarien has experienced severe flooding.
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    tried to post this on another forum, it got banned. PLz excuse typos:

    Anti-Hurricane Meditation

    Only got 2 minutes to write this:

    Breath deeply.

    Remember we have control over our reality.

    We carry the universe inside of ourselves. The Hindu + Buddhist texts remind us.

    Look within. Focus on all storms.

    Visualize the hurricane dissolving, dissipating.

    Flood the body with a feeling of love for all humans.

    Imagine the headlines "Irma disperses, little damage."

    "Irma moves away from Florida.."

    "Last minute miracle saves Florida."

    Charge these headlines with a feeling of calm power.

    Remember we have control in this reality. Deny consent.

    Ask help from all the nations of the Earth, the hidden kingdoms, the angels, the entire universe.

    That's what I'll be doing.

    If two of us do it, so much the better.
    http://tinyurl.com/oke7jvm //// "the love that you withhold, is the the pain that you carry... (lifetime after lifetime)..." - Alex Collier.

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Quote Posted by TargeT (here)
    Quote Posted by KiwiElf (here)
    Quote Posted by viking (here)
    Looks like Jose is already a cat 4!

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...prclt=0Q335p9r

    Viking
    Predictably Jose will become a Category 5 within 24-hours (perhaps "they" need to add a "Category 6" - which is what Irma should be - Irma is 5 x the size and power of Andrew ...)
    its headed north into the ocean, jose won't bother anyone
    I really hope you're right TargeT; (because the Ventusky computer projections indeed show Jose going North - straight into New York - sure don't look too good for New York on the 19-20th atm) - I'd recommend everyone with an interest update the imagery daily & pray this one fizzles... if it continues like this, it will make Irma look like a tiddler...

    EDIT: Also note the two forming off the West Coast of Mexico...

    Click image for larger version

Name:	Jose Projection sml 2017-0919.jpg
Views:	23
Size:	74.8 KB
ID:	36152
    Last edited by KiwiElf; 10th September 2017 at 00:42.

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  27. Link to Post #154
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Michio Kaku "hints" that hurricanes have been the result of a government weather modification program.

    Quote World renowned physicist Dr. Michio Kaku made a shocking confession on live TV when he admitted that HAARP is responsible for the recent spate of hurricanes. - see note at end of this post - KE

    In an interview aired by CBS, Dr. Kaku admitted that recent ‘made-made’ hurricanes have been the result of a government weather modification program in which the skies were sprayed with nano particles and storms then “activated” through the use of “lasers”. In the interview (below), Michio Kaku discusses the history of weather modification, before the CBS crew stop him in his tracks.
    Full article at link:
    http://www.earth-heal.com/videos/vie...d-seeding.html



    Published on Sep 9, 2017



    NOTE: Dr. Michio Kaku doesn't directly mention HAARP or make the somewhat sensationalist claim of the original article headline/video - KE
    Last edited by KiwiElf; 10th September 2017 at 04:16.

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...


    https://i.imgur.com/fFpadCX.png


    that's 100% artificial plasma/laser technology. hurricanes don't have this activity...

    i have been watching and they tried to steer it towards miami but it didn't follow. they're trying to reel it back towards florida...

    the beings behind this gross me out.

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  31. Link to Post #156
    France Moderator Hervé's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    US forecast models have been pretty terrible during Hurricane Irma

    NOAA's best weather model seems to be getting worse with hurricanes, not better.

    Eric Berger - 9/8/2017, 10:34 PM


    Weather Bell Enlarge

    We have written a fair amount at Ars recently about the superiority of the European forecast model [ECMWF: European global model], suggesting to readers that they focus on the ensemble runs of this system to get a good handle on track forecasts for Hurricane Irma. Then we checked out some of the preliminary data on model performance during this major hurricane, and it was truly eye-opening.

    Brian Tang, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Albany, tabulates data on "mean absolute error" for the location of a storm's center at a given time and where it was forecast to be at that time. Hurricane Irma has been a thing for about a week now, so we have started to get a decent sample size—at least 10 model runs—to assess performance.

    The model data
    The chart below is extremely busy, but when you understand how to read it, the data is striking. It shows the average position error (in kilometers) at forecast lead times of 12, 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hours (so, out to five days). It compares several different classes of models, including global models that forecast conditions around the planet, nested models focused on hurricanes, and consensus forecasts.

    Specifically, the models are referenced as follows:
    AVNO: US Global Forecast System, or GFS. The premiere US global model

    CMC: Canadian global model

    UKM: UK Met Office global model

    ECMWF: European global model

    NGX: US Navy global model

    HMON: New, experiment US hurricane model

    HWRF: Operational US hurricane model

    TVCN: Consensus model, essentially an average of the global models

    OFCL: Official National Hurricane Center forecast


    Brian Tang: Mean absolute errors for the position of Hurricane Irma.

    Forecast models typically show their skill with three-, four-, and five-day forecasts. For simplicity's sake, we will focus on 120-hour forecasts. At this lead time, the average error of the European model with respect to Irma has been about 175km in its position forecast. The next best forecast is from the hurricane center, which is slightly more than 300km. An automated model, then, has so far beaten human forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (looking at all of this model data) by a wide margin. That's pretty astounding.

    What is particularly embarrassing for NOAA, however, is the comparison between the European model and the various US forecast modeling efforts. The average 120-hour error of the GFS model is about 475km. The operational, hurricane-specific model, HWRF, does better, with an average error of 325km. But the experimental HMON model does terribly, at nearly 550km of error. A similar disparity in quality goes all the way down to 24-hour forecasts.

    Another method of determining track accuracy is by looking at trend maps, which show a time series of tracks. In the gallery below, you can gauge the consistency of forecast models and their accuracy based upon the actual track of the storm.


    These trend maps in recent track forecasts show which models have made consistent forecasts, and which have varied significantly. You can also track accuracy by looking at the actual position (X) taken by the storm.
    This is the European model.

    Why the US lags
    So what's the deal here? The overall performance of the National Weather Service's GFS model has lagged for years behind the European forecast system, which is backed up by superior resources and computing power. Finally, this year, the GFS was upgraded. However, even before those upgrades went into effect, hurricane forecasters were raising concerns about the new GFS.

    Shortly before the beginning of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, in fact, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami pushed back against the upgrade. They had noted degraded performance during internal tests of the GFS model on Atlantic tropical cyclones. The track forecasts were about 10 percent worse with the newer version of the model than the older one.

    In a presentation posted on the National Weather Service website, first reported by Mashable, the hurricane center officials said, "The loss of short- to medium-range [tropical cyclone] track and intensity forecast skill for the Atlantic basin in the proposed 2017 GFS is unacceptable to the National Hurricane Center." Ultimately, the upgrade was initiated anyway.

    An independent expert on global forecast models, Ryan Maue, said the NOAA office responsible for developing US computer models, the National Centers For Environmental Prediction, is understaffed and has less funding than the European forecasting center, which is based in the United Kingdom. America, he said, is getting what it pays for.

    "NOAA and the National Weather Service are stretched a mile and an inch deep in some places for all of the responsibilities that they have," said Maue, a research meteorologist at the Cato Institute. "If we want to focus on having the best weather forecast in the world, we should focus on having the best weather forecast."
    ---------------------------------------------
    Eric Berger is the senior space editor at Ars Technica, covering everything from astronomy to private space to wonky NASA policy. A certified meteorologist, Eric lives in Houston.
    -------------------------------------------
    Related:
    At times during Harvey, the European model outperformed humans
    The European forecast model already kicking America’s butt just improved
    Last edited by Hervé; 10th September 2017 at 11:02.
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Quote Posted by c0di (here)

    https://i.imgur.com/fFpadCX.png


    that's 100% artificial plasma/laser technology. hurricanes don't have this activity...

    i have been watching and they tried to steer it towards miami but it didn't follow. they're trying to reel it back towards florida...

    the beings behind this gross me out.
    Interesting,... by all accounts, Irma should have continued into the Gulf of Mexico, or gone up the East Coast of Florida -and it gets stranger...

    (there are also some possibly related claims of increased UFO sightings (mostly triangles) coming out of MacDill AFB in Tampa, Florida - shades of Close Encounters of the Third Kind? ie the govt covering up a UFO landing by creating a false flag to get everyone out of the area... hmmmm

    http://exopolitics.org/more-triangle...vacuated-irma/
    Last edited by KiwiElf; 10th September 2017 at 04:56.

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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Scroll down to the "Forever Flourish" tall beach video. It shows how the sea water is missing around the Bahamas. It is going to come back, quite possibly with a vengeance I imagine. Get away from the coasts folks, do you not remember how the water receded in that big Tsunami in the Phillipines before it came back? There will be a massive bulge in the sea water somewhere. I would not be surprised if all this has something to do with the recent eclipse. Just get out of the way and let it take it's course, and get away from those empty beaches!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...ba-live-latest
    Last edited by findingneo; 10th September 2017 at 05:40.

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  37. Link to Post #159
    New Zealand Avalon Member KiwiElf's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Don't know what to make of these guys (IMC), but at 3:38 - 5:14 (didn't pay much attention to the rest of it) the video clearly animates (using Ventusky) what I said about Jose in my earlier post, and what could possibly happen (latest modelling shows it even larger & impacting the East coast just below New York on approx 19-20 Sept)

    Last edited by KiwiElf; 10th September 2017 at 08:29.

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    France Moderator Hervé's Avatar
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    Default Re: Hurricanes: Harvey... Irma... José... Maria... Ophelia...

    Quote Posted by alexius (here)
    Not long ago this twitter account uploaded a video from Long Island, Bahamas where the ocean water is missing. It appears to be pushed towards Florida.

    https://twitter.com/Kaydi_K/status/906579283950403585
    Bahamians terrified as Hurricane Irma ‘sucks away’ miles of ocean (VIDEOS)

    RT
    Published time: 10 Sep, 2017 05:12
    Edited time: 10 Sep, 2017 10:02
    Get short URL



    Boat strewn on the shore of Inagua in the southern Bahamas, September 8, 2017 © The Royal Bahamas Police Force and the Royal Bahamas Defense Force / AFP

    Footage from the Irma-hit Bahamas freaked out social media users on Saturday as it emerged that seawater was missing from a bay as far as the eye could see. The scene turned out to be a rare natural occurrence tied to the outgoing hurricane.

    “I am in disbelief right now... This is Long Island, Bahamas and the ocean water is missing!!! That’s as far as they see,” @Kaydi_K wrote on Twitter.

    “Sea gone dry,” another witness called Adrian‏ tweeted.

    The eerie scene was shared over 50,000 times in one day and it spooked web users, many of whom suggested it resembled the sucking away of water before a tsunami.

    Some found that hard to believe, reckoning instead that it might have been a routinely-occurring low tide in the bay.

    However, weather experts analyzing the scene put the blame on Hurricane Irma, which had just left a trail of destruction in the Caribbean and was about to land in Florida.

    The ominous-looking occurrence was in fact caused by a combination of low tide, low pressure and strong winds in the right direction, which literally pushed the water away from the long narrow bay. The phenomenon has been dubbed “reverse storm surge” by some of those explaining it online.

    Quote
    Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad

    I know it seems weird but strong winds & low tide can pull water out of bays and inlets in hurricanes. Like Reverse storm surge. #Irma


    8:22 PM - 9 Sep 2017
    13 replies 111 retweets 189 likes
    Luckily for the locals, the water did not come gushing in all at once, with Adrian later tweeting that the sea “came back.”

    Quote
    Adrian‏ @deejayeasya Sep 8

    Sea gone dry #HurricaneIrma #Bahamas @weatherchannel


    146 replies 5,146 retweets 12,042 likes

    Replying to @Lizardchips @steenfox @weatherchannel
    It came back

    9:38 AM - 9 Sep 2017
    30 replies 404 retweets 611 likes
    "La réalité est un rêve que l'on fait atterrir" San Antonio AKA F. Dard

    Troll-hood motto: Never, ever, however, whatsoever, to anyone, a point concede.

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