In nutshell, both Russia and China have limited themselves to a measured application of diplomatic pressure, which explicitly includes, apart from other things, stability in Pyongyang, no regime change, no drastic alteration of the geopolitical chessboard and no massive refugee crisis.
Within this seemingly agreed framework of action, there is little to no scope for the US and its allies in the region to manufacture a scenario whereby the North Korean regime can be overthrown. Let’s not also forget here that the Sino-Russia duo was forced to make this aspect clear because of Nikki Haley’s remark that the US would act alone if Kim’s regime didn’t stop testing missiles and bombs. These remarks were followed by Chinese foreign ministry’s statement that said that “The peninsula issue must be resolved peacefully. The military solution has no way out. China will not allow conflict or war on the peninsula.” Already, Russia’s Vladimir Putin had warned that a “cutting off the oil supply to North Korea may harm people in hospitals or other ordinary citizens.”
With two of the most important aspects of the US policy vis-à-vis North Korea thus getting rejected, the passage of UNSC resolution and imposition of sanctions hardly reflect the power that the US claims to have as a global power. On the contrary, the fact that the US had to reframe its resolution due to opposition from both China and Russia does strongly reflect the influence this duo has come to enjoy in the international arena.
In simple words, sanctions imposed through a unanimously imposed resolution of the UNSC do none of the originally drafted resolution by the US representative Nikki Haley. This failure has been followed by a ‘warning’ from President Trump, who threated to impose sanctions on Chinese banks if they didn’t follow the UNSC sanctions. However, this step, if ever taken, will only make matters worse for the US. Qualitatively speaking, sanctions of Chinese banks will allow the North Korean issue to quietly slip to the background and create a new global tussle. The Chinese are aware of this seeming eventuality and are already preparing to counter it. According to some reports, China is expected shortly to launch a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold in what analysts say could be a game-changer for the industry. This framework would allow the US sanctioned countries, such as Russia and Iran, to circumvent US sanctions by trading in yuan. While this programme is part of China’s attempts to reduce the dominance the US dollar enjoys in the commodities market, it also signifies that by opening deals in Yuan, China is moving towards creating a separate economic space, which cannot be hit by US sanctions.
While this move will certainly trigger a sort of ‘trade-war’ between the US and China, in the long run it will turn out to be the central most piece of multipolar world China as well as Russia have been trying to build as it will allow them to follow more independent policy paths vis-à-vis issues such as North Korean nuclear crisis.
That Russia and China are not going to allow the US to pursue its hegemonic impulses against North Korea is also evident from the way Russia is moving towards integration rather than isolation and ultimate overthrow of North Korean regime. In Vladivostok, Russia’ Putin went out of his way to defuse military tension and warn that stepping beyond sanctions would be an “invitation to the graveyard.” Instead, he proposed integration through business. Putin’s plan found its manifestation through a trilateral trade platform, crucially involving Pyongyang, Seoul and Moscow, to ultimately invest in connectivity between the whole Korean peninsula and the Russian Far East.
While a North Korean delegation was present in Vladivostok and expressed its broader agreement on the connectivity programme, what certainly becomes clear is that Russian and Chinese policy vis-à-vis Korea is fundamentally different from that of the US. And, therein lies a point of relief and a point to reflect on for North Korea on the possibility of fighting sanctions through integration in the Russia-China led Eurasian connectivity.
Salman Rafi Sheikh, research-analyst of International Relations and Pakistan’s foreign and domestic affairs, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.
The "Korean War", Part II. Will there be war between the US and North Korea?
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