The Wuhan Coronavirus [Covid-19, the Honey Badger virus]

[Sarah Rainsong]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
More about Chris Martenson's numbers. An R0 of 4 is crazy-serious (3 is serious enough), but it's not quite as apocalyptic as Mortenson's spreadsheet numbers show. I'll see if I can explain why he got it wrong.

That's not to dismiss the importance of this very high R0. But his math isn't quite right.

What follows here is for science project geeks. But most of you may be able to get the picture easily.

Here's what he showed in his video:



That enormous number of total infections after 20 days at R0=4 is 366 billion. (Yes, you read that right. )

But here's why that's not the correct figure, if we assume that Martenson equated "cycles" to days. (And that term he used suggests he may be aware of this, but just did a kind of quick back-of-an-envelope calculation to show the potential severity.)

He basically assumes that someone who's infected, and therefore infectious, will spread it all to others all within 24 hours, or at least all at once. That's why the growth is geometric (parabolically near-vertical). Of course, that near-instant transmission won't necessarily happen.

It is more likely that someone who's infected, but doesn't know it, will spread it around quickly as they go about their normal life in cities, buses and shopping malls. (And within their friends and family, too.) But one can't predict that will happen immediately.

Any cross-infection will be spread over a 14 day incubation period before the unfortunate person who's infected realizes they're sick.

That model still produces the same numbers over time, but over a longer time period. So it needs to be adjusted. The 14 day incubation period is a kind of buffer.

How it may really work is that if an infectious person is going to spread it to 4 other people, the 1st might be on Day 2, the 2nd on Day 5, the 3rd on Day 8, and the 4th on Day 12. Or any permutation of those. So the equation needs to take all that into account.

I'll see if I can generate the more probable numbers, using days rather than "cycles", factoring in the likely delayed transmission to others.

Another thing to note about the math and how it spreads, is that once a particular area is saturated with cases, there will be no one left to get it unless someone travels outside that area. Those kind of instances (if properly reported) will affect the R0 number.

I'm a bit angry right now for the lack of proper reporting. I have heard from several anecdotal sources (my friend's niece, my aunt's friend, that kind of thing) that people who have been possibly exposed 2nd hand (like being on a flight with a person later confirmed to have nCOV) and showing symptoms--but not serious enough to be hospitalized--are being refused tests.

[silvanelf]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
More about Chris Martenson's numbers. An R0 of 4 is crazy-serious (3 is serious enough), but it's not quite as apocalyptic as Mortenson's spreadsheet numbers show. I'll see if I can explain why he got it wrong.

That's not to dismiss the importance of this very high R0. But his math isn't quite right.

What follows here is for science project geeks. But most of you may be able to get the picture easily.

Here's what he showed in his video:



That enormous number of total infections after 20 days at R0=4 is 366 billion. (Yes, you read that right. )

But here's why that's not the correct figure, if we assume that Martenson equated "cycles" to days. (And that term he used suggests he may be aware of this, but just did a kind of quick back-of-an-envelope calculation to show the potential severity.)

[...]

That's your assumption. Sorry, you are confusing days and cycles here.

I've cross-checked Martenson's video to see whether he became sloppy to confuse 'days' and 'cycles' ... No, Martenson talked always about cycles and the diagram above says clearly "New infections each cycle" ...

He basically assumes that someone who's infected, and therefore infectious, will spread it all to others all within 24 hours, or at least all at once. That's why the growth is geometric (parabolically near-vertical). Of course, that near-instant transmission won't necessarily happen.

Martenson assumes for simplicity that all these transmissions take place all at the same time: after one cycle.

[Innocent Warrior]

Posted by Bill Ryan (here)
As of a few minutes ago, thousands of Hong Kong doctors, nurses and hospital employees have voted for a strike which could begin as early as Monday, to press the government to close all borders with mainland China.

• https://scmp.com/news/hong-kong/heal...spital-workers

It seems so obvious that border closure has to happen. All of China has to be placed in quarantine.

Most governments, maybe concerned about economic or social impact, have been way too slow to do this.

It may even be too late now. But it'd have been far wiser to take strong action immediately and then relax it all a little later if the decisive action proved to have been unnecessary. The problem we have now: we can't go back in time and stop incoming flights 10 days ago.

The first hub of spread is China. But the second is the US. The US authorities are being irresponsible, and maybe criminal. The major airlines, one by one, are taking their own action, while the US government does little or nothing.

Even Alex Jones is critical of Trump for not acting decisively. As a pragmatic businessman who's managed risk all his life, he should know exactly what to do. It's hard to understand: the implication is either another agenda, and/or that he's not able to take action because he's not permitted to.

Agree, way too slow. An update on the US, they have now closed their borders, it must have been around the same time as Australia did, I saw it reported at the same time. This measure is against the advice of the WHO and the Chinese government isn’t pleased, which is unreasonable given we now know it could mutate rapidly in China and become more deadly (and Trump offered them whatever resources they require). See the following article for more details: Coronavirus: US and Australia close borders to Chinese arrivals

[Tintin]

Posted by AriG (here)
So when this unfolding situation started looking ominous, I could not help but recall the words of Bill's 'Anglo Saxon Mission' and how it does seem that albeit quite delayed, the dire warnings from 2010 seem to have been teleported along an extended timeline into 2020. "China will catch a cold". A corona virus is responsible for the common cold, but in the hands of the likes of Netanyahu and Bolton? A definitive weapon of mass destruction indeed.

On the ground here - obtaining medical face masks consumed most of my day. I had some real estate business to attend in the Queen City area and as I headed South, I made numerous stops to obtain some medical masks that would assist my husband and I in our travel schedules. Stop one - Ft. Mitchell, KY CVS - all of the masks are gone. Upon inquiry, the staff said they were told to "pull them off the shelf". Stop#2, Costco - Florence, KY. All "sold out". Stop #3 - Walton Pharmacy, Walton KY - two boxes of five glorified dust masks left available, medical grade masks sent to Homeland Security. Stop #5, Williamstown, KY, rinky dink pharmacy - one box of medial grade masks on the shelf, sold individually at 1.25 each. Bought eight. Stop #6 - Dollar Store, Dry Ridge KY - sanding masks available, bought ten paks. Stop #7, Walmart, Dry Ridge Ky - staff told to pull all stock to send to Homeland Security.

Got back to the farm - watched the live stream Youtube coverage of the White House declaring Coronavirus a US Health Emergency. This has never happened. We have never had a medical emergency.

Planning on pulling my sister and mother in from the city and sequestering all necessary resources for at least a two month period.

This is Kentucky, folks. Couldn't imagine what's going on on the coast.

Be well.

edit to add:

my shopping adventure was one of concern as I attempted to order necessary supplies from Amazon yesterday. At least a two month delay on masks. Thank goodness I have all other medical supplies including sutures and lidocaine, penicillin jabs and necessaries.

Yes, a similar corroboration came to us at work yesterday.

We have a US distributor who is currently at a major photonics exhibition in San Francisco and had written us that masks - I can't recall which specific ones - have more or less all been snapped up, in that city, as far as he can tell.

[Ernie Nemeth]

We had a snowstorm in Toronto a few weeks back. They would not shut up about it for days before the event claiming it would be the mother of all storms. We barely got six inches...news is no longer news. Nothing authorities say can be trusted.

And here is what I have learned in my time on this planet. The one thing you can be sure of is that whatever they tell you is never the truth. And the news just wants you to tune in for ratings. Sensationalism is the best way to do that.

But go ahead and cry wolf.

[syrwong]

The HK government already disallowed most Chinese from mainland to come to HK, except with particular kinds of visa. Only the main border crossings are still open. It is not practical and very disruptive to close the border with the mainland. Many Hong Kong people work in the mainland and a lot have not returned to HK. The majority of them are in nearby GuangDong province anyway.

The call to close the border is instigated by the "Yellow Ribbon" which supported the riots, is anti-government and promotes HK-independence.

It is a great shame that while medical personnels are rushing from other provinces to Wuhan and at this dangerous times the Hong Kong couterparts start this strike to blackmail the government. Hong Kong already have one case not directly related to China. An old man only toured Japan recently got this virus.

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by silvanelf (here)
Martenson assumes for simplicity that all these transmissions take place all at the same time: after one cycle.

Yes, fully agreed.

My point was really that for each infectious carrier, there's going to be a spread of the R0 infection over the 14 days before (presumably) the patient gets sick and is isolated. It's not going to happen all at once. That means a more complex calculation, showing the real time effect of the growth.

I do understand that Martenson didn't have time to do this before he felt he needed to make his urgent video update. All the points he made in his video were totally appropriate and very important.

I assumed R0=4, and transmission to others from each infectious person occurred on Days 2, 5, 8 and 12. That created an enormously complicated spreadsheet.

I calculated that once Patient Zero started infecting others on Day 1, roughly 3500 others would be infected after 28 days. (That number might actually be close.)

After that, the escalating domino effect goes astronomical if uncontained. The exact numbers barely matter. It becomes a strategic problem, not a tactical one.

But Day 1 seems to have been in late November. (No-one knows who Patient Zero was — or where it started. Most researchers now profoundly doubt the animal market was the origin.)

The first diagnosis was on 8 December, after hospital admission on 1 December. [Source] The Chinese stayed very quiet about it all till it was impossible to contain the information. (Not the virus!)

It seems likely that the real numbers of those currently infected are already in the hundreds of thousands. 80% of those might not know it yet.

[Caliban]

Below is from Rappoport's latest piece. He's written many articles since this thing hit the press, all informed by many years of research:

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/


If you’re working for a major public health agency, cooking up case numbers and exploiting fear are part of your every-day arsenal. They have to be. Otherwise, you could be caught with your pants down. “Sorry, folks, that world-ending global pandemic we were telling you about last week? It didn’t pan out. Most of the cases are mild, on the order of a bad cold, and a lot of cases we pretty much made up. We got carried away. After all, we’re basic salespeople for the vaccine industry…”

Remember West Nile, bird flu, Zika, and way back, the Swine Flu scare of 1976? They were all hyped to the sky. They were all predicted to sweep across the world. They were all connected, by some people, to “engineered viruses in biowar labs, against which we don’t stand a chance.” And they were all duds. The case numbers—when the smoke cleared—were miniscule. That’s called a CLUE.

But you see, there is a thing called The Church of the Virus. It’s quite amazing. People simply hear the word VIRUS and they fall down on their knees. Some of these people were, up to the moment when an epidemic was declared, saying that building up the immune system through basic natural means was a fine defense against germs, BUT—all of a sudden, they’re paralyzed and hypnotized by The Word. VIRUS. Now they’ll go the World Health Organization one better. That Agency is saying there may be 10,000 cases? The paralyzed members of the Church will say, “No, there are a hundred thousand cases. Probably a million by nightfall.”

So my strategy is to get out ahead of the Church. I’m saying: there are 30 trillion cases of the Chinese epidemic, we’re all locked down, we’re all dead already. Okay? End of story. It’s been told. NOW, let’s look around. Are there still people? Are we still here? Are there trees and animals and clouds and sky?

[silvanelf]

Presumably there is a lack of sufficient capacity to check all these suspected cases, but this may change soon:

New test kits for coronavirus approved in China

BEIJING, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- A batch of nucleic acid reagent test kits for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) and received a medical device registration certificate.

The kits, developed by Sansure Biotech, a Changsha-based biotech company, can shorten detection time and recognize suspected cases, especially latent infections.

Helped by an automatic nucleic acid extractor and a mobile molecular diagnostic platform developed by Sansure Biotech, the kits can generate test results in 30 minutes.

The NMPA approved four new products for testing the new coronavirus on Jan. 26.

The products, including reagent test kits and a sequencing system of the virus, are expected to speed up the diagnosis process and further expand the supply capacity of virus detection products.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138742202.htm

[silvanelf]

Posted by bluestflame (here)
just got this from me feed on twitter , concerning if true https://twitter.com/CelebratingAus/s...13382376562691

"I just got off the phone to a mate who works in customs at sydney Airport..he said there is a HUGE influx of Chinese fleeing to
🇦🇺
Australia.. airlines are INCREASING their flights. Flights come here full & go back empty to pick up more"

Let me guess: planeloads of wealthy Chinese vacationers?

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Caliban (here)
Below is from Rappoport's latest piece. He's written many articles since this thing hit the press, all informed by many years of research:

https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/

Are there still people? Are we still here? Are there trees and animals and clouds and sky?

Made me laugh. I have immense respect for Jon Rappoport. Like a veteran war correspondent, he's seen it all. He's 81 years old, still standing strong. He's not going to be cowed or bowed by anything.

But at the risk of seeming like an impudent neophyte, I think he may be wrong here. This feels serious to me, based on all the public information I can find.

Even if you and I are in no personal danger, this could be like an asteroid going through functioning western society, and the economy. As phone-in caller "David", a Navy veteran and DIA operative, told the Infowars War Room yesterday, the Chinese government seem to know what this really is, and seem to be really scared.

So maybe the wolf was called incorrectly in earlier years — but now might actually be here. In a couple of weeks, we'll definitely know, and it might be earlier. What I'm trying to do personally on this thread is not frighten people, but keep people accurately informed: one of the functions of Avalon we're proud of, for all its members and guests.

[Sarah Rainsong]

Watch what they do, not what they say. I have a hard time believing it's nothing when the Chinese government is willing to build three (?) new hospitals and shut down travel to such a huge population.

How many times has the US declared a national public emergency?

Eventually, the wolf actually shows up.

[Delight]

This is my take away so far....I DON'T KNOW IF This is a wolf.

The best thing IMO we can ALL do now is consider locating outside a major population center ASAP. It looks like cities are not the best place for healthy people anyway. There are many reasons to live in a smaller community but IMO the cards are showing that for lots of reasons we will be better off into the future outside urban/suburban areas.

Learning I have consolidated in the last week is

1. Practice NOT moving my hands above my shoulders unless I have deliberate reasons like brush my hair and teeth etc... and after hand washing.

2. Be aware of touching surfaces and use bleach to wipe down fomites.

3. Talk to others about what I know about viruses and spread awareness versus hysteria.

4. Don't go around hugging and shaking hands (is it time to do the Bowing greeting?)

5. Stock up on the supplements (Thanks for all the suggestions)

6. Plan to have a bigger garden this spring.

7. Think about how to completely isolate if needed.

8. NEVER EVER EVER get a vaccine.

Questions I have are about the usefulness of masks (maybe they have too great a porosity?

This is an interesting video I did not see posted

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=HE7Iz7HLpYg

[Tintin]

Posted by Innocent Warrior (here)

Posted by AriG (here)

Posted by bluestflame (here)
just got this from me feed on twitter , concerning if true https://twitter.com/CelebratingAus/s...13382376562691

"I just got off the phone to a mate who works in customs at sydney Airport..he said there is a HUGE influx of Chinese fleeing to
🇦🇺
Australia.. airlines are INCREASING their flights. Flights come here full & go back empty to pick up more"

Are the "authorities" testing these people? Increasing flights? Holy cow. Not the way to contain a pathogen.

I’ve been staying informed as best I can because my son regularly uses public transport (trains, and our suburb is a busy transport hub where people catch buses from the end of the train line).

Our state government here in Queensland just held crisis talks due to the lack of transparency of the federal government. Two Chinese nationals tested positive on the Gold Coast (many people travel between there and here in Brisbane daily), after arriving in Melbourne from Wuhan and taking a domestic flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast. The first confirmed case became symptomatic during the flight and he stayed at a Gold Coast resort for 24 hours before being hospitalised (the second confirmed case travelled with him, along with others, seven IIRC). Our premier has been provided all the details about that domestic flight but held crisis talks because the federal government won’t give any information in the international flight. Why?

The kids here just recently began the new school year after the Christmas holidays and the parents of three Queensland schools have received notices informing them that students from those schools have been isolated because they were in the same domestic flight as the infected cases. They wouldn’t confirm that those students attended school for the first two days and they haven’t closed the schools (remember the first case became symptomatic during flight). Pretty much nobody misses the first days of school and if they didn’t attend school then why not say so? And why inform the parents if they didn’t attend school? Two of those schools are in suburbs close to ours, the other is on the Gold Coast.

The Federal government still hasn’t banned flights from China, this makes no sense. Neither the federal or state government is instilling confidence that they can contain the virus here in Australia, although at least the premier here is calling for banning the flights out of China. Looks like we’ll be seeing it here first hand in our neck of the woods soon. Hopefully we’ll get lucky, the environment here lately is the best we could hope for, we’ve had a lot of rain recently and it’s been humid every day for weeks, and there’s no shortage of sunshine for vitamin D (weather can be compared to Florida’s).

My son is a healthy young man in his late teens and has been using the trains up until a couple of days ago, but after reading the following information I’m banning him until we are better informed of the current situation (Trevor Drew is the director of the CSRIO's Australian Animal Health Laboratory, spearheading vaccine efforts).

The following is and excerpt from the article titled, “Coronavirus ‘deadlier than it looks’, virologist warns” -

Professor Drew said early indications that the disease was killing less than 2 per cent of victims in China could be misleading ­because of the potential for it to evolve rapidly and gain ­potency. He spoke out as the first batch of a world-first Australian-grown virus arrived at a CSIRO lab outside Geelong, paving the way for a fast-tracked vaccine to enter preclinical trials within weeks.

Professor Drew said it was ­better to think of the emergent Wuhan strain as a “cloud” of closely matched pathogens rather than a single virus. In a “high-host-density environment” such as heavily populated China, it could rapidly mutate and become more deadly. “You may well find that more virulent viruses emerge from that cloud,” he said.

SOURCE

Wow re Innocent Warrior's link to The Australian: well, that produced a paywall, and every other Australian newspaper too (I'd copied and pasted into Google a sentence from the article snip shared here.)

Blinking flip. So, Australian mainstream newspaper sources are impossible to access [from the UK without having to subscribe] as well now? Whatever next

[Bill Ryan]

The latest from Chris Martenson, just over an hour ago.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=j8SQzIMAXnQ

[Bill Ryan]

Here's someone who spent quite some time on spreadsheet modeling, creating an Excel prediction tool in which you can enter all the variables you'd like to check out. (I'm not convinced this is accurate or useful, but it's interesting to see.)

• https://andology.com/wp-content/uplo...Tool_v1.2.xlsx

[TEOTWAIKI]

Posted by moonlight (here)
This photo shows the britons, recently landed at Brize Norton, having flown over from Wutan being transported somewhere for quarantine.

What caught my eye was that the driver of the coach is clearly unprotected, whilst standing to his left is someone in full protective gear, presumably a medical orderly.

What goes on with the driver?!?

Attachment 42405

Take note of the name of the coach.
I think there were four of these (although only three in the picture).
And the logo with the white horse.
Can the "four white horsemen (of the apocalypse)" be any more in your face?
They are laughing at us for sure...

[Dick]

Came across this new info: the title says it all, it contains parts of the HIV virus, but don’t know how reliable this is.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ated-bioweapon

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by Dick (here)
Came across this new info: the title says it all, but don’t know how reliable this is.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...ated-bioweapon

Yes. A simple account of this is that there's a segment of the virus genome that appears to have been 'inserted', and doesn't come from any bat, snake, bird or pig (or anything else that's naturally plausible).

This has been commented on, cautiously, by a number of medically/biochemically qualified people. They all agree on the anomaly, but so far there's no agreed explanation.

[AriG]

This may not be relevant, but there is a zoonotic incidence of HIV in felines, big cats to domestic Its called FIV. Feline immunodeficiency virus. I recently had a cat diagnosed with this although he may be a carrier (fat and happy).

On another note, in a 17 mile stretch of I 75 yesterday, I counted six dead coyotes. That doesn’t happen. Coyotes don’t die on the highway. Also saw a dead fox off a major rural route being scavenged by black headed vultures. Again, doesn’t happen on major thoroughfares. And how about those locust in Kenya?!

Whatever is going on is affecting more than the human race. IMO.