The UK Brexit vote to leave the EU

[Matthew]

I think it's madness to try to negotiate without having no deal on the table, which is the madness we have had. Yet, no deal, while very few actually want this, would happen because of the European Commissions denial about what leave means. It's a consequence of prior madness, and more motivation to leave by hook or crook

[greybeard]

Posted by YoYoYo (here)
I think it's madness to try to negotiate without having no deal on the table, which is the madness we have had. Yet, no deal, while very few actually want this, would happen because of the European Commissions denial about what leave means. It's a consequence of prior madness, and more motivation to leave by hook or crook

You may well be right.
The late Edward Heath got us into this of course.
I would not be good at debating this because I dont have a fixed opinion.
However I am interested in what people think away from the media--hype.

Chris

[Matthew]

Posted by greybeard (here)

Posted by YoYoYo (here)
I think it's madness to try to negotiate without having no deal on the table, which is the madness we have had. Yet, no deal, while very few actually want this, would happen because of the European Commissions denial about what leave means. It's a consequence of prior madness, and more motivation to leave by hook or crook

You may well be right.
The late Edward Heath got us into this of course.
I would not be good at debating this because I dont have a fixed opinion.
However I am interested in what people think away from the media--hype.

Chris

That's too cut and dried, with a single point of blame. Sorry but that is simplifying and misrepresenting the problem.

Look at the EU's methods of expansion, there's a similar story for each country, with a rival constitution being passed as a treaty (Lisborn 'treaty'), multiple referendums till they get the result they want, and how the European Commission goes against what they reassuringly promised (see the video I link in a post above), all as under the radar as they can get away with.

Frankly we have Farage to thank for bringing accountability to the EU parliament, using brutal and cutting humour. Heath alone did not cause the wake of problems. This is more than the damage of one Englishman (a strange way to sum up the problems if you ask me), and the empire builders of the EU commission star as the main culprits

[greybeard]

Posted by YoYoYo (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)

Posted by YoYoYo (here)
I think it's madness to try to negotiate without having no deal on the table, which is the madness we have had. Yet, no deal, while very few actually want this, would happen because of the European Commissions denial about what leave means. It's a consequence of prior madness, and more motivation to leave by hook or crook

You may well be right.
The late Edward Heath got us into this of course.
I would not be good at debating this because I dont have a fixed opinion.
However I am interested in what people think away from the media--hype.

Chris

That's too cut and dried, with a single point of blame. Sorry but that is simplifying and misrepresenting the problem.

Look at the EU's methods of expansion, there's a similar story for each country, with a rival constitution being passed as a treaty (Lisborn 'treaty'), multiple referendums till they get the result they want, and how the European Commission goes against what they reassuringly promised (see the video I link in a post above), all as under the radar as they can get away with.

Frankly we have Farage to thank for bringing accountability to the EU parliament, using brutal and cutting humour. Heath alone did not cause the wake of problems. This is more than the damage of one Englishman (a strange way to sum up the problems if you ask me), and the empire builders of the EU commission star as the main culprits

Im displaying my ignorance YoYoYo.
My knowledge of the subject is limited which Is why I would like those knowledgeable to debate the subject of Brexit.

Chris

[greybeard]

Johnson says failure to secure Brexit deal will be EU’s fault
PA Media:Ready News UK By David Hughes, PA Political Editor,PA Media:Ready News

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/johnson-sa...162648324.html


It will be the European Union’s fault if the UK fails to secure a Brexit deal, Boris Johnson has claimed.

The Prime Minister has demanded wholesale changes to the deal reached by Theresa May with Brussels, including scrapping the Northern Irish backstop.

Having set out his demands to the EU’s members it was now “their call” whether they wanted a deal, he said.

Mr Johnson made the comments during a visit to Wales where he promised help for farmers facing a “tricky” situation if a no-deal Brexit results in tariffs pricing them out of EU markets.

The Prime Minister was also visiting Brecon and Radnorshire ahead of Thursday’s crunch by-election which could see his Tory-DUP majority in the Commons cut to just one.

The latest stage of Mr Johnson’s tour of the UK came as:

– Sterling continued to take a hammering against the dollar and euro amid concerns over a no-deal Brexit, heading for its worst month for nearly three years

– Ireland’s Leo Varadkar told the Prime Minister the backstop was “necessary” and the Brexit deal “could not be reopened”

– Sheep farmers warned of civil unrest in the event of a no-deal scenario.

The Prime Minister has promised that the UK will leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal and demanded the abolition of the backstop, the contingency plan aimed at preventing a hard border with Ireland in all circumstances.

Mr Johnson said the UK was not aiming for a no-deal Brexit but the situation was “very much up to our friends and partners across the Channel”.

“They know that three times the House of Commons has thrown out that backstop, there’s no way that we can get it through, we have to have that backstop out of the deal, we cannot go on with the Withdrawal Agreement as it currently is,” he said.

“If they understand that then I think we are going to be at the races. If they can’t compromise, if they really can’t do it, then clearly we have to get ready for a no-deal exit.”

He said it was “up to the EU, this is their call if they want us to do this” but “unless we are determined to do it they won’t take us seriously in the course of the negotiations”.

With an eye on Thursday’s by-election, Mr Johnson pleaded with Leave-supporting voters not to back Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

Tory Chris Davies lost the seat following his conviction for submitting fake expenses invoices but is fighting to regain it in the contest triggered by a recall petition.

The Liberal Democrats are hopeful of regaining a constituency they held until 2015 and have been boosted by Plaid Cymru’s decision not to field a candidate in order to avoid splitting the pro-EU vote.

Mr Johnson is clearly concerned that Leave voters could split between the Tories and the Brexit Party.

He said: “The Brexit Party cannot deliver Brexit, only the Conservatives can.”

Chris Davies

Chris Davies will attempt to regain the Brecon and Radnorshire seat after being ousted by a recall petition signed by his constituents (Victoria Jones/PA)

Mr Johnson also faces a difficult meeting with First Minister Mark Drakeford who said he would give him a “very clear message” that “Brexit will be catastrophic for Wales”.

“It will decimate our agricultural and manufacturing sectors and risks ripping the union apart,” he said.

“The PM must stop playing fast and loose with our country.”

Mr Johnson was using the visit to highlight support for farmers, claiming they will be boosted by leaving the EU’s common agricultural policy and by the UK signing new trade deals.

During a tour of a poultry farm near Newport he said: “We’ll make sure (the farming sector) have the support they need. If their markets are going to be tricky, then we will help them to find new markets. We have interventions that are aimed to support their incomes.”

Meanwhile Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns has suggested new global markets, including in Japan, will be available to sheep producers after Brexit.

But the benefits of the EU-Japan trade deal will be lost unless a replacement arrangement is in place by October 31.

In the event of a no-deal, there could be tariffs of around 40% on lamb and sheep meat exports to EU markets if the UK ends up trading with the bloc World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.

Helen Roberts, development officer for the National Sheep Association (NSA) in Wales called on Mr Johnson to “stop playing Russian roulette with the industry, which he appears to be doing at the moment”.

Asked about the possibility of civil unrest, including roadblocks and tractor protests, among sheep producers, she told BBC Radio 4’s Today: “I think they will, I think it’s time to come and stand up for ourselves and be counted.”

[greybeard]

We'll block trade deal if Brexit imperils open Irish border, say US politicians
The Guardian Julian Borger in Washington,The Guardian

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/brexit-mes...064931491.html


Any future US-UK trade deal would almost certainly be blocked by the US Congress if Brexit affects the Irish border and jeopardises peace in Northern Ireland, congressional leaders and diplomats have warned.

Boris Johnson has presented a trade deal with the US as a way of offsetting the economic costs of leaving the EU, and Donald Trump promised the two countries could strike “a very substantial trade agreement” that would increase trade “four or five times”.

Trump, however, would not be able to push an agreement through a hostile Congress, where there would be strong bipartisan opposition to any UK trade deal in the event of a threat to the 1998 Good Friday agreement, and to the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

The comments came as Johnson was in Northern Ireland in an effort to revive power-sharing talks between his allies in the Democratic Unionist party and Sinn Féin, as well as discuss Brexit preparations.

Johnson’s rise to power, and his demand for the EU to drop the backstop, which is intended to safeguard the open border after Brexit, has galvanised determination in Congress to make a stand in defence of the landmark accord, to which the US is guarantor.

“The American dimension to the Good Friday agreement is indispensable,” said Richard Neal, who is co-chair of the 54-strong Friends of Ireland caucus in Congress, and also chairs the powerful House ways and means committee, with the power to hold up a trade deal indefinitely.

“We oversee all trade agreements as part of our tax jurisdiction,” Neal, a Democratic congressman from Massachusetts, said in a phone interview. He pointed out that such a complex trade deal could take four or five years, even without the Northern Ireland issue.

“I would have little enthusiasm for entertaining a bilateral trade agreement with the UK, if they were to jeopardise the agreement.”

What is the original 'backstop' in the Withdrawal Agreement?

Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the Withdrawal Agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements.

It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact.

Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work.

The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish sea, which is anathema to the unionist party.

Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU's customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the country from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc.

What was added to May's withdrawal agreement?

Joint interpretative instrument

A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try and get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible.

Unilateral statement from the UK

This set out the British position that, if the backstop was to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement.

Additional language in political declaration

This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it 'reduces the risk' of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it.

What happens next?

During their campaigns to become prime minister, both Conservative party leadership contenders Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt appear to have declared the Northern Ireland backstop “dead”, and promised to throw it out of any deal they negotiate with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not re-open the Withdrawal Agreement for re-negotiation.

Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker

Pete King, the Republican co-chair of the Friends of Ireland group, said the threat to abandon the backstop and endanger the open border was a “needless provocation”, adding that his party would have no compunction about defying Trump over the issue.

“I would think anyone who has a strong belief in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday agreement the open border would certainly be willing to go against the president,” King said.

In the event of a hard Brexit, in the absence of guarantees for the Northern Ireland agreement, the strength of sentiment among Irish Americans – a tenth of the population, many of them in swing states – could make it an issue in next year’s presidential and congressional elections.

Johnson has refused to meet EU leaders until the backstop is scrapped. On Tuesday, Ireland’s taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, told Johnson the backstop could not be removed from the UK withdrawal agreement.

After a contentious phone call between the two leaders, a spokesman for Varadkar said that alternatives to the backstop, as a means of guaranteeing the Northern Irish peace agreement “have yet to be identified and demonstrated”.

For the past eight months, Congress has held up ratification of a new trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, the USMCA, which Trump has presented as an extraordinary achievement (though it differs little from its predecessor, Nafta). Representative King said a UK trade deal would face even greater obstacles.

“First of all trade deals are always difficult,” the New York Republican said in a telephone interview. “There’s any number of other labour and environmental issues that get brought up. But to have a solid block on one particular issue would make it very, very difficult to get it through Congress, unless the border issue is resolved.”

The Democratic speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has said that a US-UK trade deal has “no chance whatsoever” of passing in Congress. Over the weekend, a committee of former members of Congress and foreign policy officials said “all of Irish America will support the Speaker right down the line”.

The adhoc committee to protect the Good Friday agreement, established earlier this year, wrote to the UK’s new secretary for Northern Ireland, Julian Smith, on Sunday to raise its concerns about Johnson’s statements about abandoning the backstop.

A European diplomat in Washington predicted the Irish American caucus would be decisive in holding up an agreement. “I think there is enough meat in the Irish-American lobby to stop a UK trade deal if the Good Friday Agreement is affected,” the diplomat said.

The Irish embassy has been energetically lobbying in defence of the 1998 peace agreement. The ambassador, Daniel Mulhall, said he has been pushing at an open door.

“There is a genuine groundswell of opinion within Irish America in favour of the Good Friday agreement and against anything that would be perceived to undermine that agreement,” Mulhall said.

“Wherever I go, wherever I speak to Irish-American audiences, the first question is always to do with Brexit,” the ambassador added. “And they always reflect a deep concern about Brexit.”

“Politically we have a good caucus here. It’s active … They see the Good Friday agreement and all that’s flowed from it as an achievement for Irish America .. and they’re loathe to see that jeopardised in the Brexit context.”

Amanda Sloat, a former state department official and now a Brexit expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said: “Trade deals are always challenging to ratify in Congress … There will be significant resistance, as Speaker Pelosi has said, to ratifying a trade agreement that is seen to harm the Good Friday agreement or the interests of people in Northern Ireland.”

"Fearr porn or reality check?"
Chris

[greybeard]

Johnson sends 'ditch the backstop' message to EU via Brexit adviser
The Guardian Daniel Boffey in Brussels,The Guardian

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/johnson-se...123042280.html


Boris Johnson has sent his most senior EU adviser and Brexit negotiator to Brussels to deliver in person his message that the UK will leave without a deal unless the bloc abolishes the Irish backstop.

David Frost, a former British ambassador to Denmark who was also an adviser to Johnson when he was foreign secretary, is to hold talks with EU officials over the next 48 hours.

As Johnson’s choice to replace Olly Robbins, Frost is to be the new government’s main interlocutor for fresh negotiations. His contact is the most significant so far between Johnson’s administration and Brussels.

He will meet Clara Martinez Alberola, the head of cabinet for the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker; Stéphanie Riso, a senior official in Michel Barnier’s negotiations taskforce who was a key player in drafting the terms of the backstop, and Ilze Juhansone, the deputy secretary general at the commission.

The meetings will be held over Thursday afternoon and Friday morning but a government spokesman reiterated the prime minister’s position that without a radical EU rethink of the backstop there would be no significant talks.

Johnson has insisted that removal of the “undemocratic” backstop – which would keep Northern Ireland under single market regulations and the whole of the UK in a customs union to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland – is necessary for a deal to be struck on the terms of the UK’s departure.

A government spokesman said: “In his role as the prime minister’s Europe adviser, David Frost is visiting Brussels to have introductory meetings with key officials and to pass on the prime minister’s message in person.

“The UK is leaving the EU on 31 October whatever the circumstances. We will work energetically for a deal but the backstop must be abolished. If we are not able to reach an agreement then we will of course have to leave the EU without a deal.”

During a phone call on Tuesday, Barnier told the Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, that there was no chance of the EU changing its position or offering a “managed no deal” through side-deals to cushion the economic impact.

The EU’s chief negotiator “confirmed that the EU no-deal measures are unilateral in nature and aim at the protection of the EU27 interests”, a spokesman said of measures already announced to keep planes in the air and haulage routes open for up to nine months.

Frost’s appointment has been well received in Brussels, where he is a known and respected figure. He first worked in Brussels at the UK’s permanent representation to the EU in 1993 and went on to work closely with the current UK ambassador to the EU, Sir Tim Barrow, in the European Union department, of which he would later become director.

From May 2006 until October 2008, Frost was the ambassador to Denmark, after which he became the chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association. He returned to the Foreign Office as Johnson’s special adviser between 2016 and the foreign secretary’s resignation in 2018.

Frost moved to his current role in Downing Street from his job as chief executive of the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Diplomatic sources who know Frost have counselled against any suggestion that he would be sympathetic to remaining in the EU. He is understood to believe the UK should leave both the single market and customs union in order to benefit from Brexit.

In recent years he has called for better no-deal preparations by the government. Commenting on Theresa May’s ousting, Frost tweeted: “The prime minister’s departure is an unavoidable necessity for moving beyond the country’s political log-jam.”

Related: Boris Johnson wraps up Northern Ireland talks with no sign of progress on reviving power-sharing - live news

Johnson has demanded the ditching of the backstop in phone calls in recent days with the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron.

Writing for the Guardian on Wednesday, the European parliament’s Brexit coordinator, Guy Verhofstadt, echoed the recent comments by all EU leaders by insisting the withdrawal agreement would not be reopened.

“Faced with a British government intent on ratcheting up talk of no deal, other European governments have no choice but to prepare for the worst too, but this is far from a desirable path,” he said.

“In the face of such irresponsible posturing, far from feeling threatened, I fully expect EU governments to remain calm and keep their unity. Attempts to put pressure on Ireland will only be met with waves of solidarity from the rest of the EU.”

[greybeard]

Lib Dems win Brecon and Radnorshire byelection, cutting Johnson majority to one
The Guardian Steven Morris in Builth Wells,The Guardian

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/lib-dems-w...015703439.html

Boris Johnson has suffered a major blow after the Conservatives were beaten by the Liberal Democrats in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection.

The victory for Jane Dodds means the new prime minister’s working majority in the House of Commons has been cut to just one. It will be seized on as a sign voters are concerned by Boris Johnson’s pledge to leave the EU without a deal if he deems it necessary.

The Liberal Democrats won 13,826 votes with the Tories taking 12,401, a margin of 1,425 that overturned the Tories’ previous majority of more than 8,000. It was a sobering night for the Labour party (1,680 votes), which was beaten into fourth place by the Brexit party (3,331), and only just held on to its deposit. Ukip (242) came last behind the Monster Raving Loony party (334).

In her acceptance speech, Dodds said: “I am incredibly humbled by the support. From every walk of life and every political persuasion, people have chosen to believe in my positive liberal vision for something better.

“And by backing that liberal vision, people in Brecon and Radnorshire have sent a powerful message to Westminster: we demand better.”


She continued: “People are desperately crying out for a different kind of politics. There is no time for tribalism when our country is faced with a Boris Johnson government and the threat of a no-deal Brexit.

“My very first act as your MP when I arrive in Westminster will be to find Mr Boris Johnson, wherever he’s hiding, and tell him loud and clear: stop playing with the futures of our communities and rule out a no-deal Brexit.”

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, Jo Swinson, who visited the constituency four times in the run-up to the byelection, said the results showed that the country did not have to settle for Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn.

“Boris Johnson’s shrinking majority makes it clear that he has no mandate to crash us out of the EU. As leader of the Liberal Democrats, I will do whatever it takes to stop Brexit and offer an alternative, positive vision for a richer, greener and safer future. Britain demands better than what the tired old parties can give.”

Swinson also thanked Plaid Cymru and the Green party for not contesting this byelection so as to avoid splitting the remain vote.

Ed Davey, the Lib Dem MP for Kingston and Surbiton, called it “a huge result”, adding: “The Brecon and Radnorshire byelection was the front line of the stop Brexit campaign. This is going to make Boris Johnson’s job that much more difficult, and for those of us who are desperate to stop Brexit it’s a crucial moment.”

The leader of Plaid Cymru, Adam Price, said: “The people of Brecon and Radnorshire have spoken. It’s now time that people throughout these islands are heard, too, in a final say referendum.

“But if the prime minister is intent on a general election, he should know that Plaid Cymru and the other pro-remain parties are committed to cooperating so that we beat Brexit once and for all.”

The byelection in mid-Wales was called following the ousting from parliament of the Tory MP Chris Davies after he was found guilty of submitting a false expenses claim. Despite the scandal, Davies was chosen to stand again.

After the result, Davies congratulated Dodds and wished her well for the future. He also paid tribute to his family, saying they had had “a difficult time over the past few months”. Earlier, he said his party had run a “clean and positive” campaign but added: “Sadly a few of our competitors have led a dirty campaign.”
Conservative MP Chris Davies after losing his seat.
Conservative MP Chris Davies lost his seat. Photograph: Rebecca Naden/Reuters

Prof Roger Awan-Scully, the head of politics and international relations at Cardiff University, said the Tory vote held up reasonably well. “Until a few days ago people were talking seriously about the Brexit party pushing the Conservatives into third,” he said. “They’ve done well resisting the pressure from the Brexit party. It hasn’t quite been good enough this time round but whenever we get a general election, which might not be far away, this seat is very much in play for the Conservatives.”

Awan-Scully said it had been a dreadful night for Labour. “There’s lots of dissatisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn, lots of dissatisfaction with the direction of the party. In its ultimate historic bastion of Wales I think Labour is in some serious trouble.”

Tory grandees including the Commons leader, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, toured the constituency during the campaign. Johnson also visited Brecon earlier this week but did not venture into the town centre, leaving onlookers who had waited for him in the rain angry and frustrated.

The election of Dodds brings the total number of Swinson’s party members in the Commons to 13.

During the campaign, farming became a key issue, with union officials warning that farmers could carry out acts of civil disobedience if the UK leaves the EU with no deal. Appropriately the count was held at the Royal Welsh Showground in Builth Wells.

Davies had represented the seat for the Conservatives since 2015. The Liberal Democrats held the constituency from 1997 to 2015.

[Matthew]

I have to say for the record it's sad to see this thread fill up with non stop cut and pasted main stream articles, because they have exactly the same bias as all main stream news, and are really easy to find already. You don't need to go to a special forum to find them

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by YoYoYo (here)
I have to say for the record it's sad to see this thread fill up with non stop cut and pasted main stream articles, because they have exactly the same bias as all main stream news, and are really easy to find already. You don't need to go to a special forum to find them

Thanks — I very much appreciate all greybeard's reports from the mainstream press, but as an expat Brit I'd definitely appreciate a wide spectrum of views, including strongly pro-Brexit ones. (Which as best I'm aware of all the issues, I find myself personally agreeing with.)

[Matthew]

I'm surprised you have a strong anti-Brexit agreement Bill, but each to their own

Edit
As an anti-establishment oik, I'm personally pleased to hear that

[greybeard]

One point hardly stated is that we had two world wide wars in relativly quick succession--Since entering closer ties with Europe there has been no conflict between those in the Market.--Coincidence?

One of the reasons I have been posting without much comment, is that Avalon is multinational and those abroad dont have the same ready access to what has been posted--this saves people time and effort.

The media certainly has been constantly showing the difficulties that leaving without a deal would cause.
The media at the time of the referendum was taking an opposite view--all the benefits of leaving--most have since been proved to being over optimistic.

The reality is that a lot of people have change their minds.
The market was working, flaws accepted--but Europe is our nearest and best customer.
Does not make sense to loose that trade at low tariff.

Seeing the way that the tide has turned I suspect that we will not leave--Brexit may well not occur.

Id like to see people post reasons for leaving and reasons for staying.

A few have--mostly through videos though.

I have suggested a debate by those more knowledgeable than I.

Chris

[Bill Ryan]

Posted by YoYoYo (here)
I'm surprised you have a strong anti-Brexit agreement Bill, but each to their own

Sorry! A typo. I'm pro-Brexit. (I'll amend my post )

[Matthew]

Posted by greybeard (here)
One point hardly stated is that we had two world wide wars in relativly quick succession--Since entering closer ties with Europe there has been no conflict between those in the Market.--Coincidence?

One of the reasons I have been posting without much comment, is that Avalon is multinational and those abroad dont have the same ready access to what has been posted--this saves people time and effort.

The media certainly has been constantly showing the difficulties that leaving without a deal would cause.
The media at the time of the referendum was taking an opposite view--all the benefits of leaving--most have since been proved to being over optimistic.

The reality is that a lot of people have change their minds.
The market was working, flaws accepted--but Europe is our nearest and best customer.
Does not make sense to loose that trade at low tariff.

Seeing the way that the tide has turned I suspect that we will not leave--Brexit may well not occur.

Id like to see people post reasons for leaving and reasons for staying.

A few have--mostly through videos though.

I have suggested a debate by those more knowledgeable than I.

Chris

Are you saying that in light of the recent election results at Becon and whatever it was?

I had a quick look at the results and they are very very slight (negligible) split evenly between leave parties and remain parties, but that is with no deal on the table. I believe we are looking at how people feel about no deal. The way leave remain (typo, oops loool >< ) parties would win is because the split of vote between The Brexit Party and the Tories, and Labour voters are using Lib Dem as a protest.

But even if the leave vote is split, the fight to leave will hardly stop... How many successive years have the SNP been strongly voted in with Scottish independence as it's prime mandate; it's puts a second referendum on the agenda like nothing else, and I sincerely hope Scotland get their next referendum, because having the SNP voted in so strongly, with independence as it's mandate, that must be respected as democratic vote should.

Same goes for UK independence, since we successfully voted to leave. But if this is not honoured you'll see more fighting for freedom

[Carmody]

I'm pro brexit for all the right reasons and pro anti brexit for all the right reasons.

The balance is close, due to the level of insider corruption that occurred in the beginnings of the EU. It being the Nazi wet dream plan of the early 1940's, in the specific and the details.

Seriously, folks, look it up.

Stepping into the EU is an ever growing spider's web for the new members, as the old guard is long in the tooth and, from my basic comment, one can see, exceeding set in their ways, means and desires.

The important part of the EU, to understand what it is and what is going on: That it never was, not for one second, a simple state of happenstance and luck. This was gamed and planned long before it began.

Easy to get in, slowly ramped up into complexities, difficult to leave cleanly. It is purposely built like a porcupine quill.

[Matthew]

Posted by Carmody (here)
I'm pro brexit for all the right reasons and pro anti brexit for all the right reasons.
...

Beautifully said if I might say I hope for two competing European models in the end, each a disruptive force to the other. The disruptive force the EU empire is/has been is very useful in my very humble opinion, and at the same time, as you said...

... This was gamed and planned long before it began. ... purposely built, and the way you describe it, quite poetic.

EU political shakers are currently in the process of getting more detached from democracy, or rather it's version of democracy (in this post above)

[Bill Ryan]

David Icke on Brexit (in a 26 April, 2019 interview). Go to 30:55, just for a few minutes. I'd agree with every word he says.

Source: https://youtube.com/watch?v=GaUKOQ4rsdQ

[greybeard]

'Deeply dishonest' - Dominic Raab accused of misleading the public over no-deal Brexit
Yahoo News UK Ellen Manning,Yahoo News UK

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/dominic-ra...130942789.html


Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab has been branded “deeply dishonest” and accused of "misleading the public" over a no-deal Brexit.

Ben Bradshaw, Labour former Foreign Office minister, said Mr Raab had brought the post of Foreign Secretary “into disrepute”.

The Labour MP has written to the Foreign Secretary demanding he apologises for remarks made on BBC Radio 4's Today programme this week.

He said Mr Raab had claimed the prospect of a no-deal exit from the European Union was “widely discussed and considered a realistic prospect during the 2016 EU referendum” - something he said was “simply not true”.


In the letter, Mr Bradshaw told Mr Raab: “Your pronouncements since taking the job just a few days ago risk bringing this great office of state into disrepute.

“I was astonished to hear you claim on the BBC's Today programme on Monday 29 July that the prospect of a no-deal exit from the European Union was widely discussed and considered a realistic prospect during the 2016 EU referendum.

“You must know this is simply not true.”



He said there appeared to be “no evidence at all” of Mr Raab ever suggesting that leaving the EU without a deal was a likely or possible outcome and accused him of suggesting the opposite.

“This is not a subject for debate, it is a matter of public record,” Mr Bradshaw went on. “For you to now try and claim a democratic mandate for no deal, despite failing to discuss the possibility of such an outcome during the referendum, is deeply dishonest and demeans the office of Foreign Secretary.”


A Foreign Office spokesman said: "The Foreign Secretary has given tangible examples of when all eventualities, including a no-deal Brexit, were raised in the run-up to the referendum in 2016."

Labour MP Ian Murray, a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, said: "Dominic Raab is continuing the example set by the new Prime Minister of flatly misleading the public when he claims no deal was discussed as a realistic outcome by Leave campaigners including himself during the 2016 referendum.

"It is an insult to the great office of British Foreign Secretary that he holds to twist the truth in this way, and he must be held to account.

"When he appears before the Foreign Affairs Committee on which I sit, I will be asking him about this issue in detail."

[greybeard]

Posted by YoYoYo (here)

Posted by greybeard (here)
One point hardly stated is that we had two world wide wars in relativly quick succession--Since entering closer ties with Europe there has been no conflict between those in the Market.--Coincidence?

One of the reasons I have been posting without much comment, is that Avalon is multinational and those abroad dont have the same ready access to what has been posted--this saves people time and effort.

The media certainly has been constantly showing the difficulties that leaving without a deal would cause.
The media at the time of the referendum was taking an opposite view--all the benefits of leaving--most have since been proved to being over optimistic.

The reality is that a lot of people have change their minds.
The market was working, flaws accepted--but Europe is our nearest and best customer.
Does not make sense to loose that trade at low tariff.

Seeing the way that the tide has turned I suspect that we will not leave--Brexit may well not occur.

Id like to see people post reasons for leaving and reasons for staying.

A few have--mostly through videos though.

I have suggested a debate by those more knowledgeable than I.

Chris

Are you saying that in light of the recent election results at Becon and whatever it was?

I had a quick look at the results and they are very very slight (negligible) split evenly between leave parties and remain parties, but that is with no deal on the table. I believe we are looking at how people feel about no deal. The way leave remain (typo, oops loool >< ) parties would win is because the split of vote between The Brexit Party and the Tories, and Labour voters are using Lib Dem as a protest.

But even if the leave vote is split, the fight to leave will hardly stop... How many successive years have the SNP been strongly voted in with Scottish independence as it's prime mandate; it's puts a second referendum on the agenda like nothing else, and I sincerely hope Scotland get their next referendum, because having the SNP voted in so strongly, with independence as it's mandate, that must be respected as democratic vote should.

Same goes for UK independence, since we successfully voted to leave. But if this is not honoured you'll see more fighting for freedom

No I was saying that months ago--there was a Government poll where over 5 million signed for no exit.
The liberal party did very well in the European elections as did the Brexit party.
Nigel Farage is charismatic as is Boris.
People tend to vote for a person rather than a party.
If an acceptable exit deal and been found we would have been out by now---cant see a deal being approved in the time scale.

Im not against leaving but not for exit with no deal.
As said I will not be affected by it either way and UK will survive either way.

Good to see some debate here.
Its not my thread I just got interested in the subject because if we leave, Scotland will go for home rule.
Im can see massive border problems if England is out and Scotland gets back into Europe.
Scotland is very different from England--only about 7 million residents.
Probably more in Greater London.
I suspect we were miss-lead in the run up to the referendum.
A very rosy picture painted on the Red Bus.
If I was a voter I would be a bit worried about the lack of honesty displayed by politicians on both sides.

I dont mind which way it goes--but then Im old and grey--smiling.

So that's my thoughts--

Chris

[greybeard]

Divide and conquer
The "elite" set up situations were the people take opposing sides--that's how they control.
Like Carmody--- for the best possible reasons I can make a strong case for either leave or remain
Both valid arguments.

Now in who's interest is is it to set up conflict?
Farmers in Wales talking of civil disorder.
Leaked documents speaking the same if leaving without a deal.
Fight for freedom--who is fighting who?
If your going to loose your livelihood or even think your going to, then you will think you are forced to fight.

Yes there is more to this than the obvious stay or leave.
Which is probably why I take the middle course.
Though we probably should never have got in in the first place.
The public is continually sold a bill of goods or a pig in a poke.
What are we being sold now?
Chris