|
03-17-2010, 05:29 AM | #1 | |
Avalon Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 1,098
|
China's Showdown with America
Quote:
Last edited by Rocky_Shorz; 03-17-2010 at 05:33 AM. |
|
03-17-2010, 10:20 AM | #2 |
Project Avalon Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Northeastern Brazil
Posts: 1,259
|
Re: China's Showdown with America
Hi Rocky_Shortz,
It seems to me that Fullford is a little naive when it come to China. He seems also to forget what politics is all about. The undoing in his thinking is in this paragraph: "We have talked ourselves into believing that China is already a hyper-power. It may become one: it is not one yet. China is ringed by states - Japan, Korea, Vietnam, India - that are American allies when push comes to shove. It faces a prickly Russia on its 4,000km border, where Chinese migrants are itching for Lebensraum across the Amur. Emerging Asia, Brazil, Egypt and Europe are all irked by China's yuan-rigged export dumping." South Korea will do nothing to China because of its' neighbour North Korea. I'm sure that Vietnam and India are really close allies of the US (sarcasm implied here) and is basing his theory that the battle is between the US and China. This battle is a fiction. The real battle is for trade and wealth. The emerging Asian countries are in competition with China (nothing wrong in that), Brazil exports more raw material than finished goods and so is not in direct competition with China - in fact has a very good relationship with China wishing to trade in local currency rather than the US$ - selling to China resources and importing final products. Politics only goes in your favour when you are healthy. Have you not seen recently smaller countries starting to voice their opinions about the US? Beginning to state that the US foreign policy is wrong? They can see that the US is hurting financially and thus is becoming weaker on the political stage and I'm sure that the high level politicians know even more than we do here on street level and we are beginning to get a good picture of what's going to go down. The US was the superpower because it was the largest importing nation on this planet. However, China and India will be the rich new markets to emerge. There are a lot of poor people in India and China, but when they start to get some money in their pockets, as did the Arabs in the 1970's and the Russians in 1980/90's, they will start to buy. There will be more than 3 billion consumers avid for, initially, smaller electrodomestic items, followed by larger durable goods. These are massive markets and China and India will command who sells to them, as did the US. That is a lot of leverage in the political world! What is the exit strategy for the US president? War? I heard recently that in 1949 after WWII the leaders of the UK, US and Soviet Union made an agreement to not make developed countries 'warzones' and to hold wars only in "Third World" nations (don't think these countries have anything to do with development, they are merely countries that were not included in the "First" nor "Second" worlds). I don't think the US will have the energy or manpower to fight in a war with China nor her allies. The US will have to lower its' head and be a little more honest and humble, suffer and accept the 'payback' that will come its' way and then move on in a fairer more balanced way which would make a better world for all. Best regards, Steve |
03-17-2010, 05:40 PM | #3 |
Avalon Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 1,098
|
Re: China's Showdown with America
Well I'm trying to think of a Walmart without Chinese products...
I can't even imagine shutting off that valve of imports for even a month, but if Obama wants to put Americans back to work this will be a quick way to do it. same thing with Brazil why produce what you can buy for cheaper from China? The problem is, China is keeping the true value of their currency low if it went to actual value their products wouldn't be so cheap. I traveled Brazil for 3 months and had a blast the people treated me like a King wherever I went. It really didn't matter I was an American as much as I wondered around in amazement at everything Brazil offered with a big ol smile for everyone I met. I look Brazilian I can't tell you how many times people walked up and started asking me for directions... There is an enormous workforce in all the countries mentioned looking for the day there are enough jobs for all of them, this move could instantly ignite it into action. What this article says is very true China is on a dive and will be hurting worse than the US instantly if their currency is revalued. The middle class in India is larger than the total population of the US. China has more honor students than the US has total number of students... China will not be looking at a war with the US if this happens, if they turn upside down over night they will be busy just trying to control their own population... the robotics are already available that plants can be built that put out far more than possible with cheap labor. A new industrial age will happen over night and the power China has had offering cheap exports will be over. The window of opportunity will close and they will have a 50% unemployment rate to deal with. America's currency has already devalued to the point our exports will be cheaper than China... no, what is coming is going to be very interesting to watch as it develops. |
03-17-2010, 08:34 PM | #4 | |
Avalon Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 1,098
|
Re: China's Showdown with America
Quote:
|
|
03-17-2010, 09:08 PM | #5 | |
Project Avalon Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Northeastern Brazil
Posts: 1,259
|
Re: China's Showdown with America
Hi Rocky_Shorz,
The real meaning in my view of the Reuters article is not to make the Yuan stronger. It's to make the US$ stronger. How? Well imagine the value of the Chinese exports and then imagine the extra US$ will be needed to buy those exports. The Dolar will become back in demand and this will be a way of valuing the dolar against other currencies and also will reduce the 'glut' of dolars already in circulation. The object of the US government is not to make trade fairer (this is only one of many if you check it out): http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSHO07908120071010 it's to try and strengthen the US$. Best regards, Steve Quote:
|
|
03-17-2010, 09:11 PM | #6 |
Avalon Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: USA
Posts: 1,098
|
Re: China's Showdown with America
well it is all relative, and a stronger US dollar allows for Chinese goods to be bought for cheaper...
I really think this has more to do with China refusing to back the US on stronger sanctions against Iran myself... but what do I know... |
03-17-2010, 09:16 PM | #7 |
Project Avalon Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Northeastern Brazil
Posts: 1,259
|
Re: China's Showdown with America
Let's sit back and watch.
|
|
|