Oct. 24: Stock Market Crash

[ctophil]

Originally Posted by elka

halo mmarlinn,

I am absolutely sure the stock market in US is manipulated, and that trend will continue till elections.

For one reason or another, it's important for PTB to keep the illusion going till the votes are cast.

Then, this administration can also blame everything on the new president.
Better image for the son, isn't it?

Steve Quayle talks about what may happen right after the elections here (.mp3 link): http://www.stevequayle.com/qf_october_24_2008.mp3

It's an interesting update to what is going on now, each and every day in the Great Tribulation.

-Phillip

[mmerlinn]

Well, the crash I was expecting did not happen as I expected.

Looking at the charts, we did make a yearly low on Monday, 27 October 2008, but it was a long drawn out measured low. Why? All I can think of is that maybe the billions given to the banks was used to prop up the market. No idea for sure.

On the 24th when I got up EVERYTHING overnight pointed to a MAJOR down day that day. The major indices were lock limit down, 60 for the S&P, 550 for the Dow, and I don't remember how much for the NASDAQ. And overnight, markets around the world were down down down.

Based on the last time there was such an occurance (Black Monday 1987), I was sure the markets were opening lower and going down down down as I predicted 3 months ago. Instead, the S&P and Dow open UP while the NASDAQ opened 100 points down. By the end of the day things were pretty much unchanged from Thursday. Monday saw a big sell off right on the close, making yearly lows. I had expected it to follow thru Tuesday. Nope. Opened up Tuesday and halfway through the day ROCKETED up, some 90 points on S&P and almost 900 points on the Dow.

Now the question is, "Why?" It is beginning to look like the Federal Government has decided that it is better to print more money and ARTIFICIALLY prop up the markets. If that is true, then I have to assume that the expected 2000 point drop in the Dow extrapolates into a 25% INFLATION prop. If so, when we look back in history minus the inflation we might STILL see that we had a crash on Monday. Only time will tell.

So, if the Fed did that, what can we expect? One of the biggest bull markets in history. However, if adjusted for the expected inflation, it will be one of the biggest bear markets in history.

How much inflation? Don't know, but based on the 1929 market slide, I think it will require a MINIMUM of 300% PER YEAR, or 25% per MONTH. Bottom line, literal WHEELBARROWS of money for a loaf of bread.

Think it can't happen? Look at this link: (http://www.boncherry.com/blog/2008/1...he-real-crisis). This is the HERE and NOW in Zimbabwe. If what I suspect is true about the crash being inflated out of existence, THEN WHAT YOU SEE THERE IS COMING TO AMERICA. Such a scenario WILL destroy what is left of our economy - No business will be able to keep up with HOURLY changes in prices. And those that don't will go bankrupt.

So, watch the financial markets. If the current bear markets suddenly turn bullish and then seem to go up with no top in sight, dig out your wheelbarrow because you ARE going to NEED it.

[Swanny]

I was wondering what was happening, all seems to be on the up again.

[Antztudio]

Just wondering how you feel now that Oct 24th came.....and went....And NO crash

[Steve_A]

Hi Swanny,

All that seems is not always the truth.

I must say although I was suprised to see the rally, I wasn't shocked.

Over the last couple of days the US government pumped another 300b in the markets to help the banks out.

What does that mean?

Well in the short term it means that the banks have more liquidity, but the underlying truth is that the first installment made a couple of weeks ago didn't do the job.

So we need to ask ourselves what will be necessary to help avoid a crisis. Pump more money into the markets? Where does the money come from?

The US government I think on Monday wanted even more money by way of a second 'stimulous' package. Where does the money come from?

We also have to take into consideration that there is an election coming up and the one big issue of the campaigns is the economy. How can the current government let the DOW collapse and the economy collapse at such a time as now, a week before the election?

We also need to understand that although the index has risen, the volume was reasonably light. What does this mean? It means one of two things. That the market as reached the bottom and there are fewer players out there, because they've all gone under, or it means that nobody is buying or selling.

If we use logic, the former can't be true, as the government is wanting to pump more money into the market to hold it up. If the market had bottomed, the government wouldn't have to do that, the 'normal' market would sort itself out, like it did in 2001.

So that leaves the second alternative where we know that Paulsen has been monitoring the markets and has been in contact with investors. I posted this fact from an article I read on Yahoo!. Does that sound like external influence?

And what will happen when that external influence is withdrawn?

We need to understand that timelines and movements are subject to change. People who give their ideas are basing their conclusions with the trend and infomation available. In a 'normal' market the American bourse would have been history a long time ago.

Best regards,

Steve

Originally Posted by Swanny

I was wondering what was happening, all seems to be on the up again.

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by mmerlinn

Now the question is, "Why?" It is beginning to look like the Federal Government has decided that it is better to print more money and ARTIFICIALLY prop up the markets.

Are you stating that the government is printing money and secretly buying stocks or did I miss your point?

Originally Posted by mmerlinn

If that is true, then I have to assume that the expected 2000 point drop in the Dow extrapolates into a 25% INFLATION prop.

Can you share how you extrapolated this inflation figure?

[aiwass322]

This is why math rules!!

Found this nice mathematical model (through an article on infowars.com) that can be used to predict market crashes. Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev had this theory that economies as well as many other things behave like waves. His model predicted the 1929 incident and some people say that it has predicted a commodity price crash beginning in (yes you know it ....) 2008.

Have a look:
Link to Wikipedia

[mmerlinn]

Originally Posted by ralok_j

Are you stating that the government is printing money and secretly buying stocks or did I miss your point?




Can you share how you extrapolated this inflation figure?

You got my point exactly. Don't know if it is true or not, but SOMETHING is propping the markets up.

On the 27th the markets closed on their lows and on their annual lows. When market normally close like the formation seen in the S&P and the Dow, the next day the markets TANK bigtime. The nearest support on the Dow was 2000 points BELOW the close at 8000, or roughly a 25% gap to the support. That is where I got the 25% from as that is the only measure that is available at this time. In reality, it is really anyone's guess what the real number is, but whatever it is it is HUGE.

[ralok_j]

I don't think the gubmint has the funds to steer the market. I do know there was a few late trades by mutual fund companies, which will move the market.

[mmerlinn]

Originally Posted by ralok_j

I don't think the gubmint has the funds to steer the market. I do know there was a few late trades by mutual fund companies, which will move the market.

They don't. But they do control the printing presses. And the 700 billion bailout money (now well over 1 trillion) had to come from somewhere outside of the budget. Eventually we will know.

[eugene_vn]

I have to agree with mmerlinn on this one - the only reasonable explanation for the October 24 event was a massive intervention by Bush's PPT (Plunge Protection Team). A glance at the recent intraday Dow levels (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/qui...freq=7&time=18) shows that 8200 has acted as a price floor for the past couple of weeks. While it's not unusual for the Dow to consistently bounce off the same general level, when all the technical, momentum, and fundamental indicators pointed (way) down like on Oct 24 and 8200 still supported prices, it quickly took on the characteristics of a mandated level below which prices would not be allowed to fall.

Ironically, had the market been allowed to turn down hard on Oct 24, it would have quickly rallied back into the 9000-10,000 range anyway. So it's not all that unusual to be sitting at 9200 at the Thursday close. However, the price to pay for the PPT intervention is going to be (as mmerlinn suggests) an even greater devaluation of the dollar and an even deeper real bottom when the PPT finally allows the market to crash (or loses its ability to intervene further).

There is a good video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5oCPcB3Z-8 which shows the historical "real" value of the Dow (i.e. priced in ounces of gold), which is one way of peeling away the machinations of the Fed in terms of devaluing the dollar in order to make the stock market "appear" to be rising based on higher nominal values of the Dow. According to this analysis (by Robert Prechter - www.elliottwave.com), we have probably only seen around a third of the bear market that is still unfolding.

One things to look for in Friday's trading is that it appears the market may be tracing out a "head and shoulders" pattern at the 9100-9200 level. According to classical technical analysis, if prices fall below the right shoulder, they should go way, way down. With the PPT still active it's hard to know whether normal market forces will be allowed to prevail. We will see. . .

[Steve_A]

Hi ralok_j,

I can now confirm mmerlin and my suspicions about how the Government secretly puts money into the stock market to prop it up.

It was confirmed to me by George Green in his latest online conference, it's just that I didn't know the name of the group he mentioned.

It's called the Plunge Committee. You can read about it at these links:

http://www.gata.org/node/4462

http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2007...democrats.html

http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/0..._hearings.html

Best regards,

Steve

Originally Posted by ralok_j

Are you stating that the government is printing money and secretly buying stocks or did I miss your point?




Can you share how you extrapolated this inflation figure?

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi ralok_j,

I can now confirm mmerlin and my suspicions about how the Government secretly puts money into the stock market to prop it up.

It was confirmed to me by George Green in his latest online conference, it's just that I didn't know the name of the group he mentioned.

It's called the Plunge Committee. You can read about it at these links:

http://www.gata.org/node/4462

http://www.larouchepac.com/news/2007...democrats.html

http://www.larouchepub.com/pr/2007/0..._hearings.html

Best regards,

Steve

Amazing! I listened to the recorded call yesterday and when he mentioned the Plunge I immediately thought about this thread. Let us see what else we can dig up on this. One thing I do find puzzling is this:

A protracted downturn could bode ill for presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, whom Democrats have been trying to taint with allegiance to polices of fellow Republican Bush.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...46284420080315

[Pinktip]

It's called PPT, Plunge Protection Team

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plunge_Protection_Team

[Steve_A]

Hi ralok_j,

The story from the newspaper which was written in March of this year, said that everybody recognizd the fact that the economy was going to be in trouble as the opposition was trying to put McCain on the same page as Bush.

It's ironic that the public evidence of the downturn occurred a couple of weeks before the elections. The bourse on Wall Street had to be helped to try and hide what everybody knew until after the election. Consequently, after the election, the Dow dropped nearly 10% in two days and the initial 'bailout package' is almost all gone.

We've just seen the unemployment figures come out, Ford is sending home 10% of its' white collar staff..... let the fun begin...

It's important for everyone to remember that this problem was caused a long time ago. You can mark my words. In January when things are worse, the public will think that it's Obamas' fault.

Between you and me, just a question.

Could it be that Obama was set up to be the 'fall guy'? After all, the private sector didn't help in McCains campaign, he used public funds and Obama managed to raise from the public AND big business the largest amount ever for a political campaign.

This could be worth looking out for...

Best regards,

Steve

Originally Posted by ralok_j

Amazing! I listened to the recorded call yesterday and when he mentioned the Plunge I immediately thought about this thread. Let us see what else we can dig up on this. One thing I do find puzzling is this:



http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...46284420080315

[ralok_j]

Originally Posted by Steve_A

Hi ralok_j,

The story from the newspaper which was written in March of this year, said that everybody recognizd the fact that the economy was going to be in trouble as the opposition was trying to put McCain on the same page as Bush.

It's ironic that the public evidence of the downturn occurred a couple of weeks before the elections. The bourse on Wall Street had to be helped to try and hide what everybody knew until after the election. Consequently, after the election, the Dow dropped nearly 10% in two days and the initial 'bailout package' is almost all gone.

We've just seen the unemployment figures come out, Ford is sending home 10% of its' white collar staff..... let the fun begin...

It's important for everyone to remember that this problem was caused a long time ago. You can mark my words. In January when things are worse, the public will think that it's Obamas' fault.

Between you and me, just a question.

Could it be that Obama was set up to be the 'fall guy'? After all, the private sector didn't help in McCains campaign, he used public funds and Obama managed to raise from the public AND big business the largest amount ever for a political campaign.

This could be worth looking out for...

Best regards,

Steve

Funny you throw the thought out there about Obama being the fall guy. First, let me state that I did not vote for Obama and was against a few things he was promising in his campaign. Now, with that said:

For a few weeks I believed Obama would win. Yes, he is a passionate speaker. But I also sensed that McCain appeared to given up around mid October. My belief is that McCain realized that the global economy is heading towards failure and it wouldn't matter who is in the White House because that person will be viewed as the cause.

Now, I hope I'm wrong. I seriously hope that Obama makes the right decisions to avoid a failure of our economic system. I actually feel bad for him because he is taking office during one of worst economic cycles.

[ralok_j]

Interesting.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-qufOWDawU

[dagon]

just wanted to bump this to the top for the people. WAKE UP!!!

[TAXMASTER]

just keep in mind that 5 out of the top 7 percentage gains on the dow occurred during the great depression. we are going to see wild gains and losses until a bottom is reached.

Namaste'

[eugene_vn]

According to Elliott Wave analysis, the stock market is due to reach a temporary bottom some time this coming week (at around Dow 6800-7200). The next few months should be a volatile climb back into the 9000-10,000 area.

Following that, though, is where things will get very interesting. The whole time frame from around Obama's oath of office to summer 2009 should see the biggest slide to date in the world stock markets. The U.S. Dow is likely to reach new lows in the 3000-4000 area by summer, and that timing happens to line up with the many reports coming in that the US dollar will be scrapped for a new currency also in the summer months.

Hopefully the winter bounce in the stock market will allow anyone who has yet to liquidate their retirement plan (which will be vaporized by summer 2009) to do so at a decent value and exchange it for useful commodities such as food, water, emergency power, shelter, gold & silver, etc.

[mmerlinn]

Originally Posted by Tuza

Quote: 14 December 2008 --- 1260 days begin again. 2-1/2 years begin. --- World War III begins with attacks on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel.

Yep that just makes my day, month and year. Something to really ponder and look forward to.

As if there isn't enough dispicable acts of degeneration and sickness by humans on the earth, hey, it's not over yet folks, we have more wonderful things to look forward to.

I do believe in the Creator, angels, ETs and all the rest but sometimes I can't help thinking I would like to have a go at time travel, go back to the source and stop all experience except the positive, no fall, no nothing, that would relieve billions of living things excruciating carnate lives on earth. I can't stand even watching animal planet anymore, too upsetting.

One of the significant days referenced in this thread is rapidly approaching us headon:

14 December 2008 --- 1260 days begin again. 2-1/2 years begin. --- World War III begins with attacks on the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel.

In a few days we will know how accurate/inaccurate the above prediction was.

Now for an update before the day arrives. At the time of this prediction I firmly believed that this day would be a day of MILITARY attacks upon the nations mentioned. And to a large degree I still feel that way.

However, a few days ago there came rumbling out of China that they would "soon" revalue the yuan versus the U.S. dollar by about 30%. No date given, but with a populace bordering on mutiny, the Chinese MUST do something VERY SOON. Nothing happened over the last weekend, so possibly next weekend.

Chinese exports have plummeted and many factories in China have closed because of the condition of the credit markets. They have product to sell and no one to sell it to. Their biggest market, the United States, has basically quit buying merchandise of any kind regardless of where it is produced. So, suddenly, the Chinese can't sell their goods.

Rumor has it that China is partnering up with someone else to bring stability back into the Chinese market. No one seems to know who that "someone else" is, though. Unfortunately, to bring stability back, they must devalue the yuan AND find new markets at the same time, both of which will devastate what is left of the U.S. economy. The only reasonable place to find a new market is in Europe, and to crack that market the U.S. competition for the European markets must be neutralized.

So, my theory is that the Chinese are combining forces with Europe and with a concerted effort the U.S. will lose the European market and face national bankruptcy at the same time.

What is in it for the Chinese? A large market to sell their goods free from U.S. competion. Reopening of Chinese factories putting the simmering populace back to work. And repatriation of worthless U.S. dollars.

What about Europe? Greater hedgemony of the world's financial markets. Elimination of U.S. competition. A greater say in world affairs.

Is this guess correct? No way to know at the present time.

However, SOMETHING big will happen this next Sunday, whether immediately visible for all to see or not. The opening shots for WWIII are still on the table, although they may or may not happen. Also on the table now is a potential Chinese devaluation.

I cannot rule out nuclear attacks on the above nations at this time. Neither can I rule out Chinese devaluation. Either and/or both may happen along with other unknown events.

The likely scenario now is devaluation. Once the Chinese have exited the dollar in favor of the EU, then physical attack on the U.S. by Europe to eliminate all competition.

Regardless of what actually happens on the 14th, events that day will either be military defeat for the U.S. et alia OR a prelude to that same military defeat.

Because I can't rule out war now, I am packing my things and will be 300 miles from the nearest large city long before the weekend arrives. If war does not arrive, I will be back for a few weeks before again leaving the big city around the 16th of January. If war does arrive, I will stay gone assuming that my preparations for the last three years will be sufficient to stay alive until after Armageddon in 2012.

Anyhow, if I am correct, this will probably be my last post here. The Bible states that 1/3 of our populations will die during such an attack, with another third dying later of starvation & disease. In that scenario the internet would stop working. Also, I expect to be around 50 miles from the nearest connection making it impossible for me to post any updates even if by some miracle the internet keeps working.

[Swanny]

Europe attacking USA???
That wouldnt happen, the members of europe would be capable of winning if they joined forces but the countries of europe dont get on well enough.
So don't worry America your safe for the moment

[_N_]

Europe attacking USA? it will never happen (The Germans probably wouldn't agree with the French and the Italians would sit on the sideline discussing how to correctly cook pasta and that they don't like the design of their uniforms )

Knowing the USA, they fight all their wars away from home, I just don't see war coming to the USA - apart from civil/internal unrest.

[AndyH]

I'll make an amazing prediction right now for the 14th Dec...

Nothing of significance will happen.

[Dantheman62]

geez mmerlinn talk about doom and gloom!, but it actually makes me laugh, and swanny, gee thanks!, glad to know we're safe for now, HaHa, LOL! Did you ever see the movie The Patriot with Mel Gibson?