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View Full Version : 2010: The year it became impossible not notice the rapid increase of natuarl disaster



Gone001
31st December 2010, 09:32
Hey Everyone

So I imagine a lot of other people do this too, but I follow trends online. The biggest things I've noticed this year, geophysically, is the rise in volcanic activity. Of course Volcanic activity can cause ocean levels to rise and even cause earthquakes. The rise in Volcanic activity has been especially huge this year with incidents like Mount Muropi, the Icelandic volcano's, mount bromo and the Tungurahua in equador which are only a few in a list that continually grows to this day. There have even been a few articles in the news calling 2010 the biggest year for natural disaster in a generation. Here is an article from BCLocalNews.com (which is where I live) which I just read and somewhat appreciated.


By Mary Ellen Green - Goldstream News Gazette
Published: December 30, 2010 1:00 PM

The past year will go down in history as one of the most deadly on record due to natural disasters.

Earthquakes, hurricanes, tornados, volcano eruptions and severe flooding affected every corner of the planet.

Even in Canada, with major flooding, heavy snow, tornados, hurricanes Earl and Igor and an earthquake near Ottawa, Mother Nature proved she can pack a punch when we least expect it.

That’s why, coming into 2011, I’ve made it my New Year’s resolution to get my family ready for an emergency, and you should too. No other resolution you’ll make will matter if you’re faced with an emergency you’re not prepared for — not losing 10 pounds, quitting smoking or hitting the gym.

Because an emergency is by definition a sudden unforeseen crisis which demands immediate action, it’s necessary to, as the scouts say, “be prepared.”

The idea of an emergency kit is to help your family be self-sufficient for 72 hours minimum. According to the federal government’s Get Prepared 72 Hours campaign. It could take up to a week or more to be rescued from some situations.

Therefore it’s important for families to know the risks they face, make a plan and build a kit.

A few months ago, my husband won an emergency kit at a golf tournament. I’ve taken some time over the last few weeks to throw in a few extra basics we’ll need in an emergency situation.

Also, I started by walking around our home, making note of anything that might be a hazard in case of emergency. Next, I spoke with our family, friends and neighbours about forming a contingency plan. Visit www.getprepared.gc.ca to make your personalized emergency plan online and print out copies for everyone involved. Be sure to include a copy in your emergency kit.

Grab a large plastic bin or garbage can to act as your kit container and give it a place next to an exit in the home. It’s a good idea to pack items inside the container into backpacks or other easily transportable bags incase you need to flee.

Start with the basics: enough food and water for each member of the family. Each person requires about two litres of water per day.

Use food products that are freeze-dried, canned or are non-perishable. We chose high-calorie meal replacement bars, and enough freeze-dried teriyaki beef and chicken in individual meal pouches to last a week. A huge selection of freeze-dried and vacuum sealed meals are available at outdoor and sporting goods stores around town. Some of these meals have up to a seven year shelf-life.

Add a first aid kit, flashlight, batteries, a hand-crank radio, extra keys to the home and the car, change for pay phones and cash in small bills. Prescription medicine, waterproof matches, candles and a lighter, blankets, water purification tablets and some basic tools like a hammer, screwdriver, pocket knife and duct tape should also be included.

Toiletries, hand sanitizer, toilet paper and garbage bags could help make life easier in an emergency situation.

The Red Cross and St. John’s Ambulance have prepared emergency kits available for purchase. They’re available at a few shops in town and for order online.

To test out your emergency plan and equipment, why not register for the Great BC Shake-Out, an earthquake drill happening Jan. 26 at 10 a.m. More than 180,000 British Columbians have registered already to “drop, cover and hold on!” for two minutes, where ever they find themselves that morning.

For more information about the Shake-Out, visit www.shakeoutbc.ca.

reporter@goldstreamgazette.com

—Mary Ellen Green is a reporter for the Goldstream News Gazzette


Now, I'm interested to know what the general public of Avalon's opinions are about this. Does it look like this rise is escalating quickly enough that we should be ready to go at a moments notice this year? Will it be that sudden? Or will it be a much slower process extending over decades or possibly centuries? With the combination of the dying down sunspots, volcanoes and super volcano's (like the one under Yellowstone witch has shown activity) cause a small ice age? Or do you think theres nothing at all to worry about? Is this just a cleansing cycle that happens every 62 million years? In my opinion It'll be a quickly escalating process that could cause serious geophysical changes within 5 years; most likely accompanied with plummeting temperature drop due to the combination of sunspots, or lack there of and the volcanic ash in the atmosphere. With that being said, again in my opinion, it can't hurt to be prepared. What do you all think? How will it play out if at all; how prepared should we be?

Cheers,

Aldous

Anchor
31st December 2010, 10:03
You should always make common sense preparations for a wide range of inconveniences. Not worth obsessing over though - and definitely should not be fear motivated.

Here is my effort at making the same points: http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?4360-Basic-preparations-for-%C2%93Urban-Inconveniences%C2%94-%28V1.04%29

Gone001
31st December 2010, 10:08
John- Your right we shouldn't be fear motivated, but should be realistic.

Gone001
31st December 2010, 10:12
John- Great thread, you covered a lot of the prep so perhaps this thread (to all those reading) should be more geared toward how it could progress and how quickly it could progress.

Anchor
31st December 2010, 10:20
When you have been through stuff you realise how fast it can happen. Nature is freaking awesome.

A storm can blow the roof off of your house, the power can go out for days on end, in Ireland [1] right now they have a water shortage because the thaw burst so many domestic pipes in allegedly "empty" houses (whats that about?) and all so much of the utility water is leaking away! Asides from the critical staying alive function that water plays, there are also important questions of sanitation that a lot of people have not thought through unless they have been through a problem like this. The list of s*** that can happen is endless - and how fast it can happen is basically... in the blink of an eye.


John..

[1] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1343001/NORTHERN-IRELAND-WATER-CRISIS-Families-use-lemonade-flush-toilets.html

Gone001
31st December 2010, 10:31
John- You had me at "nature is freaking awesome." haha. Sanitation of water is definitely one of the most important things to keep in mind. Thankfully there are plenty of techniques out there to learn as well as cutting edge sanitation products.. I remember one of the project Camelots old videos had a man in it who had quite a few. I also think dressing appropriately is an underplayed aspect. Look what happened to Germany in WW2 when they were un-prepared for the harsh Russian winter. I'm Canadian and had a stint in the Infantry so I understand the importance of this as well as keeping dry feet. I'm not sure if most people do, but if not hopefully they do now! Cheers!

Jacob
31st December 2010, 18:46
We live on the north shore of Lake Huron, and are considered to be "northerners", although 90% of Canada is further north than we are. We are level with Rome, more or less, and the reason that I am being precise about our location will become evident in just a moment. In the past, we have experienced Christmas Days of anything from -10C to -30C. We typically carry survival gear in our vehicles in winter; blankets, candles, energy bars, shovel. Since Global Warming started, our winters have got progressively warmer. Today it is 6C, and tomorrow, 1st January, it will be 8C.

I am constantly in contact with relatives in Britain, and of course, the weather is a constant topic. Britain has had it's coldest winter since records started in 1910. Yes, they have burst pipes everywhere, as burial depth, and in-house insulation is not designed for winters below about -5C at worst. The British have header tanks in their attics, that provide regulated water pressure to the house. I imagine frozen header tanks, and related pipes, would have been the major concern in December. When we discuss their winter problems, I am used to getting comments like, "you guys up there in the north are used to this type of weather".
"Hold on there," says I, "you are several hundred miles further north than we are."
After the surprise has worn off, and I explain the relative latitudes, I then have to explain how European temperature is moderated by the Gulf Stream, and without the Gulf Stream, Europe would experience similar winters to northern Canada. The Gulf Stream is slowing down. The cold water from the polar regions of Europe, flows SW under the warm water from the Gulf of Mexico that flows NE back to northern Europe. I apologize for giving a lecture on the Gulf Stream, but not everyone understands how it works, and particularly some Europeans, whose way of life is determined by the condition of the Gulf Stream. Europeans describe their climate as Mediterranean. Sorry, if you live in northern France, you do not have a Mediterranean climate. It is the cold polar water and the warm Gulf water that is the convection engine that drives the Gulf Stream, and moderates temperatures for northern Europe. With the polar ice melting, the convection engine is slowing down, and may even stop.

Northern Canada, as long as Europeans have been there, have adapted to winter conditions, and their houses and water pipes are insulated to match the conditions. 18 inches of snow has never caused me to miss a day of work, as the plows will be out all night, clearing it, yet 12 inches of snow in some Europe countries can shut a country down. It is all a matter of being prepared for what one is used to. I can see major economic changes in Europe coming in the next several years, where they will have to upgrade infrastructure to guard against colder winters. The cost will be enormous as they will be starting from scratch.

Enough about Europe. The eastern coast of North America has also experienced extreme weather conditions, not necessarily cold, that are "not normal", and could be Gulf Stream related. Then there is the flooding in California, and all the earthquakes, and volcano eruptions. Something is changing, and changing fast.

2010 was certainly the year of unprecedented weather. We can only hope that 2011 will not follow the same pattern.

Jacob
31st December 2010, 18:53
I should add, that I although I feel empathy for all those who suffer due to Global Warming, I have to admit, selfishly, that we much prefer 8 degrees C, on New Year's Day, than our old -30C extreme, or average -16C..