President Trump’s truthiness makes history as betting site pays out bigly

[ramus]

President Trump’s truthiness makes history as betting site pays out bigly

Published: Jan 9, 2019 12:18 p.m. ET

‘Never in our 30-year history have we been this one-sided (9 to 1) on a wager’

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/president-trumps-truthiness-makes-history-as-betting-site-pays-out-bigly-2019-01-09

By
Shawn
Langlois
Social-media editor

Donald Trump’s loose grip on the truth just cost one gambling site dearly.

Before the president’s address on border security Tuesday night, Bookmaker.eu put the over/under on the number of lies he’d spew at 3.5. For bettors, it was a no-brainer, as hundreds of thousands of dollars loaded up on the over.

In fact, Bookmaker odds consultant John Lester told MarketWatch that the site has never seen such a lopsided response from its customers.

“Never in our 30-year history have we been this one-sided (9 to 1) on a wager,” he said. “You would have to go back to the early Mike Tyson fights (pre-Buster Douglas) to find a wager with comparable one-sided demand.”

Lester explained that no matter how much he adjusted the odds, hardly anybody seemed interested in taking the under. Smart move, considering the Washington Post found that there were at least six false statements during the address.

“We knew the President would be prone to exaggeration to support his need for Democratic support to fund his wall,” Lester said. “However, we hoped the 8-minute time constraint coupled with the unlikelihood of the President going off-script would keep the total number of false statements low.”

Nope.

This isn’t the first time the site has been crushed by a wrong-sided Trump bet, having lost more than a million dollars when he won the presidency.

“Bookmaker seems to be snake-bit with President Trump,” he said.

That won’t stop the site from offering more political wagers, considering demand for such action has been on the rise in recent years.

“As the political arena starts to mirror the drama and colorful personalities that comprise the sporting world,” Lester said, “players seem to be finding as much excitement in wagering on political props as they would on their favorite team.”

[Satori]

Who is the judge of whether the "at least six" statements were false? By what measure or test can the statements be judged to be false? How reliable are the truthful statements or facts on the topic relative to which it is claimed he made false statements, when compared to the claimed false statements?

I'm not defending Trump. I'm trying to make a point.

Which is: The person(s) claiming he made false statements are very likely guilty of making false statements, including statements that Trump's alleged false statements are false.

[DeDukshyn]

Who is the judge of whether the "at least six" statements were false? By what measure or test can the statements be judged to be false? How reliable are the truthful statements or facts on the topic relative to which it is claimed he made false statements, when compared to the claimed false statements?

I'm not defending Trump. I'm trying to make a point.

Which is: The person(s) claiming he made false statements are very likely guilty of making false statements, including statements that Trump's alleged false statements are false.

While I have little doubt he actually lied abut the things in question ... why did the article choose to omit what those lies were? That's a bit odd ...
He's been caught in a fair few tall tales lately so the question isn't whether he lies, it's whether he lied about the things this gambling site claimed ... I guess we will never know.

Now I have to go rake some leaves to prevent forest fires ... The President of Finland told me that's how they do it over there ... ;)

[chancy]

hello everyone:

I just learned how politicians lile in Canada.

Because we are so easy going out politicians like like this for example.

1. You are such a surf board no wonder no one wants to try yours

2. Now you are caught raking the grass....

3. I have never seen anyone pet the cat like that

4. Can you tell us why you missed supper?

This is serious.....All politicians in our government are banned from saying you bloody liar!

You're a dishonest bastard

or anything else that might ring the liars ears.

I guess you will have to adopt this kind of lying in the us.

Good luck
chancy

PS we would make much for betting material

[Fellow Aspirant]

Here are the six lies as reported by the Washington Post, in no particular sequential order:

FIRST LIE REPORTED

9:34 PM
January 8 by Michelle Lee
Trump does not accurately describe migrant children illegally brought into the United States
“Last month, 20,000 migrant children were illegally brought into the United States, a dramatic increase. These children are used as human pawns by vicious coyotes and ruthless gangs.” — President Trump
The Customs and Border Patrol does not track the number of migrant children brought over the border. Rather, it tracks the number of “family units,” which are defined by CBP as a minor apprehended with at least one family member or guardian.
In November 2018, CBP reported just over 20,000 family units were apprehended at the southern border. In other words, there could have been more than 20,000 children that were detained.
Further, Trump describes the children as “human pawns by vicious coyotes and ruthless gangs.” But the number of suspected cases of fraudulent parentage is a fraction of the overall number of family units apprehended — in other words, in most cases tracked by CBP, the children are being brought in by their parents.
The Post’s Joshua Partlow and Nick Miroff reported that, between April 19, when the trend was first suspected, and Sept. 30, the end of the 2018 fiscal year, CBP agents separated 170 families after determining that the child and adult traveling together were not related. That equals about 0.25 percent of all family units apprehended.

SECOND LIE REPORTED


9:12 PM
January 8 by Meg Kelly
Democrats had supported a fence at the border
Trump in his address said that Sen. Charles E. Schumer “has repeatedly supported a physical barrier in the past along with many other Democrats. They changed their mind only after I was elected.”
Schumer, Hillary Clinton and many other Democrats voted for the Secure Fence Act of 2006, which authorized building a fence along about 700 miles of the border between the United States and Mexico. It passed 283-138 in the House, with 64 Democrat votes, and 80-19 in the Senate, with 26 Democrat votes.
But the fence they voted for is not as substantial as the wall Trump is proposing. Trump himself has called the 2006 fence a “nothing wall.”

THIRD LIE REPORTED


9:09 PM
January 8 by Salvador Rizzo
‘266,000 aliens arrested in the past two years’: The number is right but misleading
It’s important to keep in mind that this figure includes all types of crimes, including nonviolent offenses such as illegal entry or e-entry.
In fiscal 2018, ICE conducted 158,581 administrative arrests for civil immigration violations. The agency’s year-end report says 105,140 of those (66 percent) involved people with criminal convictions and 32,977 with pending criminal charges. Of the 143,470 administrative arrests in 2017, 74 percent involved people with criminal records and 15.5 percent who had pending charges.
So the numbers add up, but they’re misleading. The total covers all types of offenses, including illegal entry or e-entry. ICE does not break down arrests by type of crime, but 16 percent of the total charges and convictions (not arrests) in 2016 were strictly immigration offenses.


FOURTH LIE REPORTED


9:06 PM
January 8 by Glenn Kessler
The trade deal does not pay for the wall
“The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico.” — President Trump
Trump often says the wall will be paid for by the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade deal, a claim he repeated tonight.
This is a Four-Pinocchio claim. During the campaign, Trump more than 200 times promised Mexico would pay for the wall, which the administration says would cost at least $18 billion. Now he says the minor reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement will earn enough money for pay for the wall. This betrays a misunderstanding of economics. Countries do not “lose” money on trade deficits, so there is no money to earn; the size of a trade deficit or surplus can be determined by other factors besides trade. Congress must still appropriate the money, and the trade agreement has not been ratified.


FIFTH LIE REPORTED

9:03 PM
January 8 by Meg Kelly
Most imported heroin comes through legal points of entry
“Every week, 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90% of which floods across from our southern border.” –President Trump
In 2017, more than 15,000 people died of drug overdoses involving heroin in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That works out to about 300 a week.
But while 90 percent of the heroin sold in the United States comes from Mexico, virtually all of it comes through legal points of entry. “A small percentage of all heroin seized by CBP along the land border was between Ports of Entry (POEs),” the Drug Enforcement Administration said in a 2018 report. So Trump’s wall would do little to halt drug trafficking. Trump’s repeated claim that the wall would stop drug trafficking is another Bottomless Pinocchio claim.

SIXTH LIE REPORTED

9:02 PM
January 8 by Salvador Rizzo
There is no new crisis at the border
Apprehensions of people trying to cross the southern border peaked most recently at 1.6 million in 2000 and have been in decline since, partly because of technology upgrades, tougher penalties post-9/11, a decline in migration rates from Mexico and a sharp rise in the number of Border Patrol officers.
Customs and Border Protection reported 303,916 apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico border for fiscal 2017, the lowest in more than 45 years. In fiscal 2018, apprehensions increased to 396,579, but that was less than half the total of 2007.
There are far more cases of travelers overstaying their visas than southwest border apprehensions. In fiscal 2016, U.S. officials reported 408,870 southwest border apprehensions and 544,676 suspected in-country overstays. For fiscal 2017, the Department of Homeland Security reported 606,926 suspected in-country overstays, or twice the number of southwest border apprehensions.


You're welcome.

Brian

[Satori]

I do not see these as lies or "false statements." These are data points, that are subject to interpretation and opinion. Why believe the data that they compare to what Trump said? It is very easy to lie with statistics, by placing them in a false light. Sometimes called "spin." Whose spinning more than another is often difficult to tell.

Who to believe?

[petra]

https://ap-pics2.gotpoem.com/ap-pics/item/13170/882.jpg?

PS: the author of that headline needs to get a comedy award....

[DeDukshyn]

I do not see these as lies or "false statements." These are data points, that are subject to interpretation and opinion. Why believe the data that they compare to what Trump said? It is very easy to lie with statistics, by placing them in a false light. Sometimes called "spin." Whose spinning more than another is often difficult to tell.

Who to believe?

Its not about the data ...

If you look carefully at what he does - his "style" is to use conflation to obscure the line between truth and lie. Conflation is when you merge two or more separate elements together, obscuring the distinctiveness and definition of each, but resulting in a rendering that is not entirely accurate. This conflation allows him to misdirect, without all out lying.

An example: "20,000 migrant children ..." and "These children are used as human pawns by vicious coyotes and ruthless gangs". He conflates these two points to give you the impression that all 20,000 of these children are pawns of ruthless gangs, which we all know is incredibly inaccurate. He also conflated "migrant children" with "migrant families" - the 20,000 figure is the number of migrant families, not children.

Many people regard this "truth bending" as lies, and hence we can have an endless debate about whether one should refer to them specifically as lies, or are they not "technically" lies ...

So you could defend it as not "technically lies" as he does ... but there's no question, its purposeful manipulation of words through the use of conflation that allows him to potentially imply things that are untrue in his favour, and gives himself and his supporters a way to defend his "truthiness". (I'm not saying he never "technically" lies - he does that as well)


Edit to add:
Item number two on the lie list that Brian posted, is actually mostly true. The dems seem to have done a 180 in their stance on a "barrier" - but they are no longer pushing for a "fence", but rather seem to be solely focused on opposing Trumps "wall" instead. Welcome to the age of attack politics ...

[Matt P]

I really don’t care about any of this (politicians lie for a living) but I find it absolutely hilarious that the betting site is allowing the judge of the lies to be The Washington Post!! You just can’t make up comedy like this! The Post prints lies for a living. Lol. The article might as well have said the CIA was the judge that Trump lied six times. They invested hundreds of millions in Bezos’ “news”paper. This is too funny!

Matt

[Ratszinger]

Both sides are always guilty of slanting the story, painting their picture in the best way possible to present their narrative to you! Neither is truth on either side. That is the main thing we should be focused on really. Both sides lie, and they both paint phony pictures to present their stories. In those pictures they always present and highlight the things they want you to notice and see while casting those other things in the shadows. So are we surprised by this now?

Trump lies a lot like all of the globalists and globalists puppets do. There is always an angle. Its not what you say but how you say it to make the sale, to make that close! Donald is selling always! But more than this he lies about the bubble saying the stock market rise was his over and over again claiming it! He knows being the insider that he is that the bubble is created by the engineers he answers to! His biggest lie is the one leading everyone that believes in him to think he intends to do away with the FED. He walks hand in hand with their plans.

[ramus]

I wish I had known of this proposition bet I would have made one, there was no way the media was going to say he told the truth, it was a lock.