View Full Version : Weaponised Interdependence
I came across an interesting analysis of the current state of world politics and international relations that described the current style of action of various players as WEAPONISED INTERDEPENDENCE.
The concept essentially rests on the following ideas:
when parties are highly interdependent through various networks (financial, informational, transport, energy etc.)
those networks are not “flat” and non-hierarchical but actually develop an asymmetry of hubs and nodes (consider by analogy how airlines organise hubs and nodes)
players can then have control of or work to gain control of critical (or a majority of) hubs
these hub-controlling players are then in a position to coerce rivals and other players - WHO ARE DEPENDENT ON THESE NETWORKS
The paper is due to be published this summer but a draft version is available online here:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/cbv95thldv2dzro/%20Post%20Proofreading%20Weaponized%20Interdependence_IS_Submission.docx?dl=0
The authors have a website, here: http://henryfarrell.net/wp/weaponizedinterdependence/
Here is the paper title and abstract:
Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape Coercion and Surveillance
Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman
Forthcoming, International Security (Summer 2019)
Abstract: Liberals claim that globalization has led to fragmentation and decentralized networks of power relations. This does not explain how states increasingly ‘weaponize interdependence’ by leveraging global networks of informational and financial exchange for strategic advantage. We explain how weaponized interdependence works. We begin from the theoretical literature on network topography, showing how standard models predict that many networks grow asymmetrically so that some nodes are far more connected than others. This nicely describes several key global economic networks, centering on the US and a few other states. Highly asymmetric networks allow states with (1) effective jurisdiction over the key nodes, and (2) appropriate domestic institutions, to weaponize their structural advantages through two mechanisms. First, they can employ the ‘panopticon effect’ to gather strategically valuable information. Second, they can employ the ‘chokepoint effect’ to deny network access to adversaries. We test these arguments’ plausibility across two extended case studies that provide variation both in the extent of US jurisdiction and in domestic institutions – the SWIFT financial messaging system, and the Internet, finding that the outcomes match the framework’s predictions well. We conclude by discussing the policy implications, and the strategies targeted states may use to insulate themselves.
The paper is rather long (51 pages) and if this is a bit much to go through, there are some review articles already published.
Here is one: https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/digital-economy-fuels-geopolitical-competition-by-jean-pisani-ferry-2019-07
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This concept of weaponised interdependence seems an extremely useful mental model for thinking about what is happening in the world and, I think, can be extended beyond geopolitics. In particular, it seems apt to use it to consider how other facets of human life, as they move online and become networked, can be easily controlled and weaponised.
Ernie Nemeth
6th July 2019, 16:39
The gatekeepers...
The gatekeepers...
Hi Ernie, not sure I understand what you’re referring to here .... could you say more?
Ernie Nemeth
6th July 2019, 16:57
Hi Searcher.
The gatekeepers control the gates - the bottle necks, or as the author says - nodes and hubs - without which nothing can get done. Control the bottlenecks, control all the industries that rely on it.
Hi Searcher.
The gatekeepers control the gates - the bottle necks, or as the author says - nodes and hubs - without which nothing can get done. Control the bottlenecks, control all the industries that rely on it.
Thanks! Clearer now :thumbsup:
LoneWolf76
6th July 2019, 20:35
That's been my own assertion for a good number of years... European Economic Coersion became the EU...
Ahimsa
7th July 2019, 04:26
I wish the world would get better.
I wish the world would get better.
Me too! :heart:
One of the personal challenges I experience in looking to understand the world is how sad and depressing it sometimes seems to be. I have to constantly remind myself of the following truism: “no-one said revelation would be pleasant”.
~~~
In this case though, I think it is useful to consider this a helpful idea to view world politics and social engineering with. If understood through this lens, many things start to make a lot more sense with the result that the world seems less chaotic. With less sense of chaos, thinking can be a little clearer.
Another potential outcome of understanding the various actions of power players in these terms is that individually each person could decide not to participate in or use those “hubs” that are being created or shaped for coercion.... or alternatively to be on the lookout for signs of this coercion so one could “step around it” or otherwise avoid being caught up in it as a pawn in other people’s coercionary plans.
~~~
I will post more about events and happenings (as I find them) that could be understood as attempts to control the hubs and nodes of our interdependent worldwide networks.
That's been my own assertion for a good number of years... European Economic Coersion became the EU...
Indeed, it seems very apparent in hindsight that the European Coal and Steel Community founded by Jean Monnet in 1950/51 was a critical step in creating a system of economic interdependence that has become increasingly controlling, rather than enabling, and from which no state seems to have been able to escape so far.
It is interesting to note that interdependence does not have to become a noose and set of inescapable constraints and could instead be a wonderful boon to communities, helping them to jointly overcome troubles and challenges.
The way it is currently being manipulated as a kind of zero sum game indicates to me that the players lack the capacity or incentives to think in other terms (as there are clearly other options possible in an interdependent network).
That's been my own assertion for a good number of years... European Economic Coersion became the EU...
Indeed, it seems very apparent in hindsight that the European Coal and Steel Community founded by Jean Monnet in 1950/51 was a critical step in creating a system of economic interdependence that has become increasingly controlling, rather than enabling, and from which no state seems to have been able to escape so far.
It is interesting to note that interdependence does not have to become a noose and set of inescapable constraints and could instead be a wonderful boon to communities, helping them to jointly overcome troubles and challenges.
The way it is currently being manipulated as a kind of zero sum game indicates to me that the players lack the capacity or incentives to think in other terms (as there are clearly other options possible in an interdependent network).
I dont think there is a lack of capacity but rather the gangster are successful in suppressing innovations that has the potential to bypass the gates. For example when Tesla invented the wireless electricity network JP Morgan ask " where do we put the meters" Since anyone anywhere can have free electricity by simply erecting an antenna and driving a ground rod.
I dont think there is a lack of capacity but rather the gangster are successful in suppressing innovations that has the potential to bypass the gates. For example when Tesla invented the wireless electricity network JP Morgan ask " where do we put the meters" Since anyone anywhere can have free electricity by simply erecting an antenna and driving a ground rod.
Well, yes, there do seem to be some who are in it for themselves and are gangster like in their ways. Yet, at some stages in history, it has been possible to at least constrain or limit the gangsters somewhat.
Perhaps we are all still getting used to this international, interconnected world and, although those who would be gangsters are perhaps a little ahead in capitalising on the opportunities and loopholes in this system, it could well be that others, of more altruistic intentions - including all of us here - are catching up fast :flower:
Ernie Nemeth
7th July 2019, 16:34
Searcher, I believe you are right - there are more people employing the new tools for their own uses, mostly the young I would imagine.
Altruistic behavior cannot ride atop a system based on monopolistic, centrally controlled, Fascist ideologies. The problem with gate-keepers is that they are forever tempted to use their control for their own purposes. That is human nature, where they say, 'power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely'. Gate-keepers have absolute power. They wield this power not only over all those who need to get through their gates but also use that power to coerce governments and implement strategies that only gather them more power and control.
It matters not a whit whether altruistic people use their gates for good because the system rewards the gate-keepers either way. They always profit and they always profit the most. Remember the board game Monopoly? It is exactly like that. Who cares how free the other players are or whether they are ego-maniacs, saints, or unskilled untrained wage-slaves. They can wander around the board all they want and think whatever they please. It doesn't change the fact that: The one with all the hotels wins...
There are ways to get out of the system, small communities are sprouting everywhere. This is the way to go. Limited use of technology such that it profits oneself but not the system. I use facebook to campaign against the system. So basically I use their tool against them. I dont have a drivers license but I drive almost everyday. I do business but I dont have a business permit. I have a garden. I avoid luxuries. I create devices that avoid the use of gates. Solar dryers, wood fired box ovens etc. recycle and reuse. Small things combined equals big. I very seldom go into a hotel or restaurant, well I do frequent them because they are my client.
Basically I try to get out of the board as much as I can and wonder somewhere. I am looking into the future with me completely out of the board.
Searcher, I believe you are right - there are more people employing the new tools for their own uses, mostly the young I would imagine.
Altruistic behavior cannot ride atop a system based on monopolistic, centrally controlled, Fascist ideologies. The problem with gate-keepers is that they are forever tempted to use their control for their own purposes. That is human nature, where they say, 'power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely'. Gate-keepers have absolute power. They wield this power not only over all those who need to get through their gates but also use that power to coerce governments and implement strategies that only gather them more power and control.
It matters not a whit whether altruistic people use their gates for good because the system rewards the gate-keepers either way. They always profit and they always profit the most. Remember the board game Monopoly? It is exactly like that. Who cares how free the other players are or whether they are ego-maniacs, saints, or unskilled untrained wage-slaves. They can wander around the board all they want and think whatever they please. It doesn't change the fact that: The one with all the hotels wins...
Ernie, I was thinking about your analogy of the monopoly game as I was going to sleep (yes, maybe it’s a little odd to go to sleep thinking of geopolitics!).
I was wondering what a game of monopoly would look like if the rules were written in such a way that the goal was NOT to gain the most land and money but instead were geared towards something different, something more reflective of the idea that “no man is an island”. Then I wondered why we continue to play monopoly rather than leaving the game board altogether and playing a different game?
Perhaps this is what you refer to in your first paragraph: that younger people are maybe trying out different ways of being and doing.
~~~
This morning as I think about it, I think this is the hardest issue for me personally. Beyond diagnosing the issues and seeing things clearly, what can I DO in the world that is actually helpful? I would say this is my biggest central concern... how to be in the world in a way that does not inadvertently somehow propagate those aspects of the world that I find troubling.
I have been thinking about this for a long time - years - and return usually to the same basic ideas, though I have become clearer about them over time. These ideas are that, for me, it is necessary:
to be as conscious as possible of the full implications of my (and my group, community, country, etc.) choices,
to make those choices knowing and acknowledging the costs and sacrifices of lives, resources, time, energy, etc.
to know that there is no “perfect” answer, everything has a mixed set of outcomes, depending on one’s perspective.
Thank you for your comment which gave me the opportunity to articulate that for myself :flower:
There are ways to get out of the system, small communities are sprouting everywhere. This is the way to go. Limited use of technology such that it profits oneself but not the system. I use facebook to campaign against the system. So basically I use their tool against them. I dont have a drivers license but I drive almost everyday. I do business but I dont have a business permit. I have a garden. I avoid luxuries. I create devices that avoid the use of gates. Solar dryers, wood fired box ovens etc. recycle and reuse. Small things combined equals big. I very seldom go into a hotel or restaurant, well I do frequent them because they are my client.
Basically I try to get out of the board as much as I can and wonder somewhere. I am looking into the future with me completely out of the board.
Thanks Bubu. This idea of doing one’s own thing and simply operating outside of the “weaponised interdependence” is very inspiring and your many posts across Avalon show in some detail how you do this.
Your description of how you see the hotels and restaurants as needing your help (rather than you being a consumer for them) is fabulous :star:.
I’d love to know if you always have felt this confident or whether this is something that grew over time. Would you share a bit more?
There are ways to get out of the system, small communities are sprouting everywhere. This is the way to go. Limited use of technology such that it profits oneself but not the system. I use facebook to campaign against the system. So basically I use their tool against them. I dont have a drivers license but I drive almost everyday. I do business but I dont have a business permit. I have a garden. I avoid luxuries. I create devices that avoid the use of gates. Solar dryers, wood fired box ovens etc. recycle and reuse. Small things combined equals big. I very seldom go into a hotel or restaurant, well I do frequent them because they are my client.
Basically I try to get out of the board as much as I can and wonder somewhere. I am looking into the future with me completely out of the board.
Thanks Bubu. This idea of doing one’s own thing and simply operating outside of the “weaponised interdependence” is very inspiring and your many posts across Avalon show in some detail how you do this.
Your description of how you see the hotels and restaurants as needing your help (rather than you being a consumer for them) is fabulous :star:.
I’d love to know if you always have felt this confident or whether this is something that grew over time. Would you share a bit more?
Far as I could remember I have lots of confidence since I was a young boy :). Confidence is just like anything, a vibration, highs and lows, Though I have come to a point ( not very long ago, maybe a few months) that I felt my confidence cannot be shaken anymore. I dont know where its coming from. And the fact that I dont know is proof that I am (my personality) not a product of my liking. I was born like this and meant to be like this. I am what the universe makes of me. Maybe that's where the confidence is coming. Knowing that I am just an outcome relieve me all responsibility. I am not responsible but I will do the right thing because nothing good can come from doing wrong. I hope you understand what I am saying because I dont seem to. :)
I am also glad that you caught my message on post 13. Confidence is very important. We cannot just say; "no matter what we do they will win" and succumb to fear. confidence is knowledge itself. We have a good example of this on here http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?107614-The-Real-Life-Adventures-of-Shadowman This sort of knowledge/confidence is what's coming in the near future for many of humans. And of course Jesus speaks of faith(confidence) which was twisted to have faith in fake god.
I am also glad that you caught my message on post 13. Confidence is very important. We cannot just say; "no matter what we do they will win" and succumb to fear. confidence is knowledge itself. We have a good example of this on here http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?107614-The-Real-Life-Adventures-of-Shadowman This sort of knowledge/confidence is what's coming in the near future for many of humans. And of course Jesus speaks of faith(confidence) which was twisted to have faith in fake god.
Thank you Bubu. You are correct of course, knowledge and confidence allow us to face the uncertain and ambiguous.
Some years ago I read a fabulous book called “Feel the fear and do it anyway”, by Susan Jeffers. It’s great reading for anyone struggling to face something that makes them feel uncertain or fearful and I found it very helpful.... and am going to read it again!
http://images.gr-assets.com/books/1363288028l/653396.jpg
Here it is in audiobook (just longer than an hour) for anyone who might like to know more:
qmDwl2-IZEk
~~~
Thank you for sharing more about your confidence. It sounds as though as you become more “solid” or “clear” about who you are, the confidence is a natural part of that. Maybe we are all confident when we can be ourselves? :sun:
Well, I promised earlier to provide some examples of moves and counter-moves for the control of network hubs and nodes.
I think a good example is the build out of alternatives to the internet and its underlying connectivity infrastructure (cables, satellites, mobile telecommunications, etc.)... and there are various moves afoot.
The first thing to note is the US military origins of the internet and its infrastructure. It seems that it is very much possible that there is the ability to interdict any party (state, country, community, etc.), they wish to act against by shutting down or limiting that party’s internet or communication systems access.
(For more information on the origins of the internet, see
here: The Corbett Report: The Secrets of Silicon Valley: What Big Tech Doesn’t Want You to Know http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?107248-Dystopian-Borderless-Social-Control-System&p=1302135&viewfull=1#post1302135
here: MintCast Interviews Yasha Levine, Author of Surveillance Valley: The Secret Military History of the Internet http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?107248-Dystopian-Borderless-Social-Control-System&p=1300749&viewfull=1#post1300749
here: The Net: The Unabomber, LSD and the Internet (FULL) http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?106961-Amazing-Documentaries&p=1299726&viewfull=1#post1299726)
So, here are some of the moves.
1. For some time, Russia has been building out an alternative internet - RUnet. Here are some articles:
http://chinascope.org/archives/17746
Putin to Launch “Independent Internet”
In his annual state of the nation address on Wednesday, February 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia must guard against the possibility of Western countries blocking Russia from the global Internet, and that (therefore) it is necessary for Russia to create its own cyberspace.
...
https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/telecom/internet/could-russia-really-build-its-own-alternate-internet
17 Jan 2018 | 21:30 GMT
Why Russia Is Building Its Own Internet
The Kremlin has a bold plan to protect itself from “possible external influence”
Last November, news emerged that Russian president Vladimir Putin had approved a plan to create an independent Internet by 1 August 2018, first reported by the Russian news agency, RT. The alternate Internet would be used by BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—and shield them from “possible external influence,” the Kremlin’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, told RT.
“We all know who the chief administrator of the global Internet is,” Peskov said. “And due to its volatility, we have to think about how to ensure our national security.”
...
This article has some useful high level information on the technical challenges of this.
2. China, and other countries (India especially), have been building out satellite networks:
https://newatlas.com/linksure-satellite-free-internet-network/57466/
LinkSure is building a satellite network to provide global internet access for free
November 30th, 2018
It's easy to take web access for granted, but in many regions getting online isn't as simple as just opening up a browser window. Now Chinese firm LinkSure Network has announced a system of satellites to be launched by 2026, which it wants to provide internet access across the globe, free of charge.
Called the LinkSure Swarm Constellation System, the network will be headed by the LinkSure-1 satellite launching in 2019. That will be followed by 10 more satellites by 2020, with a total of 272 satellites and data processing centers scheduled to be operational within the next eight years.
...
This plan by LinkSure is interesting to consider as a counter?/complement?/alternative? to the plans Facebook had announced to provide internet coverage for Africa through its own satellite (which was destroyed during a launch accident): https://www.fin24.com/Tech/News/destroyed-facebook-africa-satellite-prompts-spacex-probe-20160905
To get a view of just how much activity there is in the satellite arena, here is a list of geosynchronous satellites in orbit, including their locations, operators and other info: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_satellites_in_geosynchronous_orbit
Also, space today (http://www.spacetoday.net/index.html) is a news aggregator that keeps track of space activities including satellite launches. It’s searchable so one can find news of satellite launches by country.
3. The Netherlands and Germany are building out their own military internet. One wonders how many other military organisations have their own (most definitely China and Russia, also probably France, Israel, and others).
https://www.rt.com/news/462992-germany-netherlands-military-internet/
Germany & Netherlands agree to create joint ‘military’ internet as NATO eyes unified network
Published time: 29 Jun, 2019 10:32 Edited time: 30 Jun, 2019 11:41
Germany & Netherlands agree to create joint ‘military’ internet as NATO eyes unified network
Berlin and Amsterdam have agreed to set up ‘military’ internet, paving the way for a unified network shared by NATO states. The ambitious program is expected to come with a hefty price tag attached.
The two European states signed an accord earlier this week in Brussels making the new Dutch-German project, called Tactical Edge Networking (TEN), official.
Headquartered in Koblenz, Germany, TEN will merge communications between the German and Dutch militaries. That would incorporate some 25,000 vehicles, while Dutch and German troops will also be outfitted with identical, linked computers, radios, tablets and telephones.
...
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With this level of investment in communications infrastructure, it is perhaps the case that the issue of 5G communications and the targeting of Huawei is a fight about which players are able to control the core infrastructure of the emerging internet of things.
Related to this, I heard an interesting perspective a couple of days ago. The speculation was that US firms such as Qualcomm (chips), Cisco (networking), and others were probably in the later stages of development of equivalent 5G technologies (to that which Huawei has developed) but they needed more time to get their technologies to market. In this view, the fuss about Huawei is being used as a delaying tactic to ensure that these US firms are able to get to market and prevent the dominance of Huawei in this market.
~~~
Cara
27th July 2019, 06:42
Michael Hudson on U.S. Economic Warfare and Likely Foreign Defenses, delivered at the 14th Forum of the World Association for Political Economy, July 21, 2019.
This is an excerpt, full version here: http://thesaker.is/u-s-economic-warfare-and-likely-foreign-defenses/
U.S. Economic Warfare and Likely Foreign Defenses
* Keynote Paper delivered at the 14th Forum of the World Association for Political Economy, July 21, 2019.
Today’s world is at war on many fronts. The rules of international law and order put in place toward the end of World War II are being broken by U.S. foreign policy escalating its confrontation with countries that refrain from giving its companies control of their economic surpluses. Countries that do not give the United States control their oil and financial sectors or privatize their key sectors are being isolated by the United States imposing trade sanctions and unilateral tariffs giving special advantages to U.S. producers in violation of free trade agreements with European, Asian and other countries.
This global fracture has an increasingly military cast. U.S. officials justify tariffs and import quotas illegal under WTO rules on “national security” grounds, claiming that the United States can do whatever it wants as the world’s “exceptional” nation. U.S. officials explain that this means that their nation is not obliged to adhere to international agreements or even to its own treaties and promises. This allegedly sovereign right to ignore on its international agreements was made explicit after Bill Clinton and his Secretary of State Madeline Albright broke the promise by President George Bush and Secretary of State James Baker that NATO would not expand eastward after 1991. (“You didn’t get it in writing,” was the U.S. response to the verbal agreements that were made.)
Likewise, the Trump administration repudiated the multilateral Iranian nuclear agreement signed by the Obama administration, and is escalating warfare with its proxy armies in the Near East. U.S. politicians are waging a New Cold War against Russia, China, Iran, and oil-exporting countries that the United States is seeking to isolate if cannot control their governments, central bank and foreign diplomacy.
The international framework that originally seemed equitable was pro-U.S. from the outset. In 1945 this was seen as a natural result of the fact that the U.S. economy was the least war-damaged and held by far most of the world’s monetary gold. Still, the postwar trade and financial framework was ostensibly set up on fair and equitable international principles. Other countries were expected to recover and grow, creating diplomatic, financial and trade parity with each other.
But the past decade has seen U.S. diplomacy become one-sided in turning the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, SWIFT bank-clearing system and world trade into an asymmetrically exploitative system. This unilateral U.S.-centered array of institutions is coming to be widely seen not only as unfair, but as blocking the progress of other countries whose growth and prosperity is seen by U.S. foreign policy as a threat to unilateral U.S. hegemony. What began as an ostensibly international order to promote peaceful prosperity has turned increasingly into an extension of U.S. nationalism, predatory rent-extraction and a more dangerous military confrontation.
Deterioration of international diplomacy into a more nakedly explicit pro-U.S. financial, trade and military aggression was implicit in the way in which economic diplomacy was shaped when the United Nations, IMF and World Bank were shaped mainly by U.S. economic strategists. Their economic belligerence is driving countries to withdraw from the global financial and trade order that has been turned into a New Cold War vehicle to impose unilateral U.S. hegemony. Nationalistic reactions are consolidating into new economic and political alliances from Europe to Asia.
We are still mired in the Oil War that escalated in 2003 with the invasion of Iraq, which quickly spread to Libya and Syria. American foreign policy has long been based largely on control of oil. This has led the United States to oppose the Paris accords to stem global warming. Its aim is to give U.S. officials the power to impose energy sanctions forcing other countries to “freeze in the dark” if they do not follow U.S. leadership.
To expand its oil monopoly, America is pressuring Europe to oppose the Nordstream II gas pipeline from Russia, claiming that this would make Germany and other countries dependent on Russia instead of on U.S. liquified natural gas (LNG). Likewise, American oil diplomacy has imposed unilateral sanctions against Iranian oil exports, until such time as a regime change opens up that country’s oil reserves to U.S., French, British and other allied oil majors.
U.S. control of dollarized money and credit is critical to this hegemony. As Congressman Brad Sherman of Los Angeles told a House Financial Services Committee hearing on May 9, 2019: “An awful lot of our international power comes from the fact that the U.S. dollar is the standard unit of international finance and transactions. Clearing through the New York Fed is critical for major oil and other transactions. It is the announced purpose of the supporters of cryptocurrency to take that power away from us, to put us in a position where the most significant sanctions we have against Iran, for example, would become irrelevant.”[1]
The U.S. aim is to keep the dollar as the transactions currency for world trade, savings, central bank reserves and international lending. This monopoly status enables the U.S. Treasury and State Department to disrupt the financial payments system and trade for countries with which the United States is at economic or outright military war.
...
Full version here: http://thesaker.is/u-s-economic-warfare-and-likely-foreign-defenses/
Cara
25th September 2019, 05:39
A very old network of interdependence: the Postal Service .... now being weaponised?
Postal rates: Why is the US threatening to leave the UN system?
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/141E/production/_103905150_gettyimages-526176702.jpg
A United States Postal Service employee sorts packages at the Lincoln Park Carriers Annex in Chicago, November 29, 2012.Getty Images
The US says the system for global postage charges puts the US at a disadvantage
Emergency talks are being held at the UN this week over threats from the US to withdraw from a 145-year-old postal treaty.
The agreement sets rates for sending packages between 192 countries.
But the US says discounted prices for countries like China are putting its businesses at a massive disadvantage.
It says it will pull out of the agreement next month unless the specialised body, the Universal Postal Union (UPU), reaches a deal this week.
Should this happen, the US will become the first country ever to withdraw, and it's unclear what impact this will have on international trade and commerce.
"It is really a nightmare scenario," UPU secretary-general, Bishar Hussein, told a news conference on Tuesday.
How does the system currently work?
International mailing rates are governed by the UPU, a unit of the United Nations that traces its roots back to 1874.
The current deal is signed by 192 countries, and sets the cost of delivery between the postal operator of the origin country and the postal operator of the destination country.
Each nation is placed into one of four categories based on their economic and postal development.
The most industrialised countries, like the US, are placed in Group 1 while the least developed fall under Group 4. Higher rates are set for wealthier nations, and lower rates for poorer countries.
The system is reviewed every four years during a quadrennial congress, and the UPU says it ultimately aims for every country to fall under the same rules.
Why is the US opposed to the current system?
Several countries have expressed their opposition, but last October the US became the first to threaten withdrawal. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45894346)
It argues that China, a major global exporter, is now the biggest beneficiary of the system because it is a major economic power but still pays lower rates than the US.
US firms say that, as a result, it can cost significantly more to post an item within the US than shipping it from abroad. Officials say this is unfair to US manufacturers and facilitates the shipment of counterfeit goods.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/B63D/production/_108935664_hi056760222.jpg
White House trade adviser Peter Navarro (left) says the UPU's system is "broken"
The US wants changes to the postal treaty to allow countries to set their own rates for parcels weighing under 2kg (4.4lb). They are already allowed to do so for bigger packages.
During talks on Tuesday, President Donald Trump's hardline trade adviser Peter Navarro called for changes to the system "that everyone in this room knows is broken".
"The mission here today is to retool this system for the brave new world of e-commerce," he told delegates on Tuesday.
What happens now?
The three-day conference will end on Thursday, and unless a deal is reached, the US says it will make good on its threat to withdraw.
The process of withdrawing from the treaty will take at least a year, and would require the US to set up its own bilateral agreements with countries around the world.
During talks, the US has signalled that it is willing to accept a two-phased option allowing it to impose new rates immediately, while giving other countries five years to do the same.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/320/cpsprodpb/1045D/production/_108935666_hi056761391.jpg
UPU director general Bishar Abdirahman Hussein has warned of "major disruption" if the US were to withdraw
Mr Navarro said Washington could quit without any problems, and UPU spokesperson David Dadge told the BBC that the UN body had a plan of action should the US decide to withdraw.
Speaking to reporters, Mr Hussein warned that "major disruption is on the way if we don't solve the problem today".
He said every country would have to "figure out how to send mail to the United States".
From: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49816654
Cara
25th October 2019, 05:32
The Russian government has been making and announcing plans for a separate Internet for quite some time (at least 3 years by my memory). It seems they are now ready to test whether they can disconnect from a potentially weaponised Internet. (The story - being from a western media outlet - has the usual Russia=bad biased narrative overlay).
Russia Will Test Its Ability to Disconnect from the Internet
https://cdn.defenseone.com/media/img/upload/2019/10/24/AP_19069554535381/defense-large.jpg
Demonstrators shout during the Free Internet rally in response to a bill making its way through parliament calling for all internet traffic to be routed through servers in Russia — making VPNs ineffective, March 10, Moscow.
Russia will test its internal RuNet network to see whether the country can function without the global internet, the Russian government announced Monday. The tests will begin after Nov. 1, recur at least annually, and possibly more frequently. It’s the latest move in a series of technical and policy steps intended to allow the Russian government to cut its citizens off from the rest of the world.
“On Monday, the government approved the provision on conducting exercises to ensure the stable, safe and holistic functioning of the Internet and public communications networks in the Russian Federation,” notes an article in D-Russia (http://d-russia.ru/opublikovano-polozhenie-o-regulyarnyh-ucheniyah-po-vyyavleniyu-ugroz-i-otrabotke-mer-po-vosstanovleniyu-rabotosposobnosti-runeta.html). (The original article is in Russian. We verified a translation with the help of a native Russian speaker.) “The exercises are held at the federal (in the territory of the Russian Federation) and regional (in the territory of one or more constituent entities of the Russian Federation) levels.”
The word “holistic” shows that the exercises follow April’s passage of the sovereign internet law (https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/01/europe/vladimir-putin-russian-independent-internet-intl/index.html) that will require all internet traffic in Russia to pass through official chokepoints, allowing the government to shut down outside access, block websites that they don’t like (https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/04/russians-will-soon-lose-uncensored-access-internet/156531/), and monitor traffic.
In 2016, Russia launched the Closed Data Transfer Segment: basically, a big military intranet for classified data, similar to the Pentagon’s Joint Worldwide Intelligence Communications Syste (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Worldwide_Intelligence_Communications_System)m. The following year, Russia announced (https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/11/russia-will-build-its-own-internet-directory-citing-us-information-warfare/142822/) that it intends to build its own domain name directory, which would allow it to re-route traffic intended for one website to another. (https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/11/russia-will-build-its-own-internet-directory-citing-us-information-warfare/142822/) And last year, Putin’s top IT advisor Herman Klimenko (http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-internet-advisor-allegedly-owns-piracy-torrent-site-2016-1) and others suggested that the military intranet, properly expanded, might be able to carry the rest of the country’s internet traffic. Klimenko cautioned that moving to the new system would be painful — and as recently as March, Gen. Paul Nakasone, director of U.S. Cyber Command and the NSA, expressed skepticism (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=12&v=Apd2ReXB6vk) that Russia would succeed.
Samuel Bendett, an adviser at the CNA Corporation and a fellow in Russia studies at the American Foreign Policy Council, said the announcement shows that the Russian government is eager to address (https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/05/russias-microsoft-knockoff-gets-security-upgrade/157310/) what it sees as a strategic vulnerability: reliance on Western IT. “The larger context is Russia’s dependence as a nation on imported/foreign hi-tech and the perceived vulnerabilities that Russia sees in such technology use. With so many government, public, and private-sector nodes using such foreign tech, the Russian government is seeking to impose a measure of control over how Internet communication over this technology is conducted,” Bendett said. “In the event of what the government sees as outside influence affecting RuNet, the state can act — hence the annual exercise.”
RuNet isn’t expected to improve the online experience for Russian people or companies. It’s all about control, making the country more technologically independent, and reducing the Putin regime’s vulnerability to popular uprising.
“The Russian government, particularly since seeing the role social media played in the Arab Spring, has wanted over the last decade to exert tight control over the online information space within Russia’s borders,” said Justin Sherman, a cybersecurity policy fellow at New America who studies internet governance and digital authoritarianism. “Free information flows are a threat to regime stability, and they need to be controlled, the narrative goes.”
As the Russian government has built infrastructure that can disconnect Russia from the global internet, it has also worked to limit Russian citizens’ access to sites and services that allow citizens to mobilize and protest. Access to services such as LinkedIn, Zello, and Telegram is limited by a 2006 Russian law (27.07.2006 number 149-FZ (https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/rus_e/WTACCRUS58_LEG_369.pdf)) that requires foreign companies to open their software to Russian security services and to hand user data to law enforcement agencies. Sherman said the passage of the sovereign internet law is one more item in this trend.
“When Russia passed its domestic internet bill into law, it wasn’t clear how much the government would actually work to make it happen, but now it’s clear they do intend to modify systems so the internet within Russian borders can be cut off from the global net at will,” Sherman said. “These disconnection tests which Russia has planned for the near future—as well as, according to documents, annually going forward—are steps in the direction of making this so-called RuNet work. They also line up with a series of international pushes by authoritarian governments to make ‘cyber sovereignty’ of this kind more palatable to the global community.”
From: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/10/russia-will-test-its-ability-disconnect-internet/160861/
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