The Fourth Turning: when humanity loses faith in its institutions

[Bill Ryan]

This most interesting term was referenced at the conclusion of Chris Martenson's latest update about the Wuhan coronavirus. (See this post (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?109753-The-Wuhan-Coronavirus&p=1335212&viewfull=1#post1335212).)

Martenson describes The Fourth Turning as being marked by the point when humanity loses faith in its institutions.

Neil Howe argues that this is happening right now, and this tipping point can sometimes lead to dark times in human history. See this Chris Martenson interview, published in March 2015:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nbVNHOB0NU

[Latti]

Martenson said that a turning takes 20 years. I lost faith in our monetary system over a decade ago and am amazed that the whole system hasn't completely collapsed. So, I suppose we’ve got only a few more years.

My balance sheet looks impressive, but much of it may vanish overnight.

[shaberon]

Hmm...never had any faith in the institutions I perceive, have always considered them the straw breaking the camel's back. But I am only one person, meaningless compared to millions. For instance, my long-standing boycott of the meat industry has not affected much.

A 20 year turning is roughly the same as Thomas Jefferson saying each generation probably needs to throw a revolution. If you do not wipe the slate clean, it will become infected, quickly.

[Mike]

Losing too much faith too quick may be just as much the fault of the people as it is the institutions.

Life can be hell. It's mostly suffering, as the Buddhists say. Considering all the tragedy and suffering and malevolence that exists in the world today, I think it's a miracle when I walk outside in the morning and there isn't total anarchy in the streets. Human beings have only really realized themselves as stewards of the planet since the 1950's, so I think we're actually doing much better than we think sometimes.

There's solid infrastructure, a beautifully functioning sewage system, flowing water in our sinks and showers, and the wondrous technology of electricity available whenever we need it. Life ain't too bad, despite some of our questionable institutions. Some of those very institutions made the things I listed possible.

If we're going to question our institutions, we should acknowledge all of it, the good and the bad. I heard a wonderful saying the other day, and it went something like this: if you're going to blame someone for all the bad things they've done, you have to blame them for all the good things they've done too.

One such institution is religion. Even a year ago I would have dismissed it out of hand, for all sorts of reasons, but having listened to some of the Jordan Peterson lectures, I'm finally realizing how deeply and richly allegorical the biblical stories are, and how our entire western civilization's value system is based on judeo-christian ethics and ideals. I'd forgotten many of those things in favor of pedophile priests and various conspiracies, which is really an intellectual default position for the lazy. Yes, there are pedo priests and very valid conspiracies surrounding the various religions, but it's missing the point entirely. I'm not a religious man, nor have I "found Jesus" but I am ashamed and embarrassed that I've approached it all in a very one dimensional way so lacking in nuance and detail.

Anyway, I blame much of the nihilism that's setting in on the people as well. It's easy to get bitter and discouraged and to give up. It's much harder and much more rewarding to take personal responsibility for ourselves, despite what we often perceive as negative outward circumstances, and just bloody get on with it

[Sunny-side-up]

Losing too much faith too quick may be just as much the fault of the people as it is the institutions.
If you we had been shown the truth, real history, it would have happened 100 years ago if not more.

[TomKat]

I read the 4th Turning when it came out, around 1997 or 1998. 22 years ago. I'm pretty sure Howe was saying that the 4th turning generation was imminent back then. Yet we're still waiting for this hero generation. If it's 20 years per generation and the hero GI generation was born, say 1920, then 1940 is the 2nd, 1960 is the 3rd, and the 4th would be 1980. I think that's why he thought it would start "any time now" (20 years ago).

[rgray222]

For decades we have been marching in an orderly (but quiet) fashion towards a global order or a global government. This has understandably given rise to Brexit and Donald Trump. Nationalism is the bane of any attempt to globalize governments.  I truly believe we are on the cusp of determining if a global government is viable or not. If the Brexit vote had been discarded and another vote taken we would have been one step away from anarchy in the UK. If the impeachment effort of Donald Trump had been successful in removing him from office we would have been in a state of anarchy in the USA. The chaos, confusion and hostility would have caused the collapse of institutions, not just government but our educational and religious institutions as well. The vacuum left by this mess would have been quickly filled by global elitist.  Just think of how close the world was too feeling the full brunt of this resounding turmoil, Trump stayed in office by 4 votes and Brexit passed by a whisper's breath.

This may seem odd to say but I am actually in favour of a one-world government but not for another 50-100 years (possibly longer). We need to reach a level of emotional maturity which would make such a government work for the betterment of mankind.  Man is still caught up in the quest for money and power and that kind of power will absolutely corrupt.  Humankind is just not ready for this type of change. 

I don't think these efforts, particularly in the USA, are over by any stretch of the imagination. Governments and institutions are quite literally under attack.  Gaining knowledge and understanding of how and when a global government should be implemented is the best immediate defense. 

[TomKat]

I think we should have had a 4th Turning around 2000. Without a reality check every 80 years, people just get more feeble. There are too many people born in the 1990s who are struggling to hold a job or raise a family. I just read they are naming their kids unique names so they'll stand out in social media.* I've noticed at work that the bathroom stalls in restrooms are hardly ever vacant -- you can see the same pair of shoes there for long periods of time. These are young guys who are either hiding from the world or playing games on their phones. I used to think it outrageous that some companies time their employees' bathroom breaks, but now I get it. So many so-called adults who still need their mummies!

*https://www.studyfinds.org/many-parents-giving-their-babies-outlandish-names-to-stand-out-on-social-media/

[Bill Ryan]

Chris Masterson discusses this again starting at 9:11 [:P] in his daily coronavirus update from yesterday:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NhJrca9Qts
http://projectavalon.net/The_Fourth_Turning_summary.gif

[Bill Ryan]

Another Chris Martenson interview with Neil Howe. It was uploaded on 27 May 2020, but I believe it was recorded on 5 May, 3 weeks earlier. First rate, as one has come to expect.

:star:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yuHVCHH1a0

[AutumnW]

I didn't watch the whole video just the first part. Howe made the point that the fourth turning may be a return to a less narcissistic society and that govt. institutions working for the public good, like the CDC, would be reinvigorated. People have lost faith in institutions, like corporations and the governments they control.

As far as globalism goes, it is becoming more and more entrenched and is expanding under Anglo-American neocon rule. That was the intent of those oily forces behind Brexit. Regardless of whether you were for or against it and the reasons why, it has undermined the EU, which was a potential threat to the unipolar globalism of the U.S.

China is being cut off at the knees, currently. Again, regardless of what you think about them, this was and is the goal, to weaken them to the point that they are no threat to the global hegemony of the U.S. All talk of marching towards globalism and nationalism arising to stamp out that threat is a manipulation of the facts that many have fallen for.
Becoming Balkanized, being sanctioned, having to do what the U.S. dictates, (a country with over 1000 military bases arrayed around the globe) does not indicate a return to an American solitude.

Watch how Modhi played the people of India, along the same lines. And you can bet, as he is cozy with the current administration, they will promise a cushy trade deal in return for arranging military bases in India. Neocons have encircled Russia and they plan to do the same with China.

Hong Kong unrest is part of a greater picture here, again, regardless if you are for or against it.

Went off topic here. Sorry. But, I sense that those who think that they are fighting the good fight under the neocons and Trump might be in for a surprise. The next leader may not be a neocon and following him, you might see an honest to God young Social Democrat take his place. The local level will be rife with that mentality. When the nationalist dispossessed, all gunned up, realize they were snookered, you'll see a fourth turning, alright.

[AutumnW]

Losing too much faith too quick may be just as much the fault of the people as it is the institutions.

Life can be hell. It's mostly suffering, as the Buddhists say. Considering all the tragedy and suffering and malevolence that exists in the world today, I think it's a miracle when I walk outside in the morning and there isn't total anarchy in the streets. Human beings have only really realized themselves as stewards of the planet since the 1950's, so I think we're actually doing much better than we think sometimes.

There's solid infrastructure, a beautifully functioning sewage system, flowing water in our sinks and showers, and the wondrous technology of electricity available whenever we need it. Life ain't too bad, despite some of our questionable institutions. Some of those very institutions made the things I listed possible.

If we're going to question our institutions, we should acknowledge all of it, the good and the bad. I heard a wonderful saying the other day, and it went something like this: if you're going to blame someone for all the bad things they've done, you have to blame them for all the good things they've done too.

One such institution is religion. Even a year ago I would have dismissed it out of hand, for all sorts of reasons, but having listened to some of the Jordan Peterson lectures, I'm finally realizing how deeply and richly allegorical the biblical stories are, and how our entire western civilization's value system is based on judeo-christian ethics and ideals. I'd forgotten many of those things in favor of pedophile priests and various conspiracies, which is really an intellectual default position for the lazy. Yes, there are pedo priests and very valid conspiracies surrounding the various religions, but it's missing the point entirely. I'm not a religious man, nor have I "found Jesus" but I am ashamed and embarrassed that I've approached it all in a very one dimensional way so lacking in nuance and detail.

Anyway, I blame much of the nihilism that's setting in on the people as well. It's easy to get bitter and discouraged and to give up. It's much harder and much more rewarding to take personal responsibility for ourselves, despite what we often perceive as negative outward circumstances, and just bloody get on with it

All of those positives you mention are products of local governments that function more like Social Democracies, if they have sufficient tax bases. Many parts of the world, including the U.S. don't have decently funded tax base, at the local level, so they crumble, like the city of Detroit.

And getting on with it is pretty difficult when your neighbourhood, where you have life long social capital, if you are working class, is abandoned by the manufacturing base.

I imagine if you are in Florida, you are surrounded by retirees who are on a combination of fixed and indexed pensions. The strong areas would be infrastructure, as you described.

The weak areas, and I am guessing, would be for profit corporate institutions that are responsible for the well being of the most vulnerable and unseen members of society. Like the prison system. How is Florida's prison system? What is the incarceration rate? How is the plea bargaining system functioning? For profit extended care facilities? How are their 'clients' doing?

You are immersed in Jordan Peterson, who I greatly admire....but remember, he is a Canadian liberal, a professor who lectured a middle to upper class crowd of kids of a certain ilk that needed a solid dressing down by someone who understood them. His message isn't political. He is addressing kids who don't understand politics at all, and use it to cover personal deficits. Good on him.

He is out of his own depth when it comes to real politic as it isn't within his domain.

What he says about the bible is fantastic and we all know that Jesus was all about sharing, caring, and loving your neighbour.

In our current age, this should be extended to the global realm, as well as to those in our own communites, -- 'the invisibles'. The servant class, the elderly, the prisoner in solitary confinement going slowly mad, those whose suffering is meaningless, purposeless, that increases pathology in the world.

You should read Chris Hedges. He was a minister at one time. He can express what I am writing here, far better than I can!

[Mike]

Losing too much faith too quick may be just as much the fault of the people as it is the institutions.

Life can be hell. It's mostly suffering, as the Buddhists say. Considering all the tragedy and suffering and malevolence that exists in the world today, I think it's a miracle when I walk outside in the morning and there isn't total anarchy in the streets. Human beings have only really realized themselves as stewards of the planet since the 1950's, so I think we're actually doing much better than we think sometimes.

There's solid infrastructure, a beautifully functioning sewage system, flowing water in our sinks and showers, and the wondrous technology of electricity available whenever we need it. Life ain't too bad, despite some of our questionable institutions. Some of those very institutions made the things I listed possible.

If we're going to question our institutions, we should acknowledge all of it, the good and the bad. I heard a wonderful saying the other day, and it went something like this: if you're going to blame someone for all the bad things they've done, you have to blame them for all the good things they've done too.

One such institution is religion. Even a year ago I would have dismissed it out of hand, for all sorts of reasons, but having listened to some of the Jordan Peterson lectures, I'm finally realizing how deeply and richly allegorical the biblical stories are, and how our entire western civilization's value system is based on judeo-christian ethics and ideals. I'd forgotten many of those things in favor of pedophile priests and various conspiracies, which is really an intellectual default position for the lazy. Yes, there are pedo priests and very valid conspiracies surrounding the various religions, but it's missing the point entirely. I'm not a religious man, nor have I "found Jesus" but I am ashamed and embarrassed that I've approached it all in a very one dimensional way so lacking in nuance and detail.

Anyway, I blame much of the nihilism that's setting in on the people as well. It's easy to get bitter and discouraged and to give up. It's much harder and much more rewarding to take personal responsibility for ourselves, despite what we often perceive as negative outward circumstances, and just bloody get on with it

All of those positives you mention are products of local governments that function more like Social Democracies, if they have sufficient tax bases. Many parts of the world, including the U.S. don't have decently funded tax base, at the local level, so they crumble, like the city of Detroit.

And getting on with it is pretty difficult when your neighbourhood, where you have life long social capital, if you are working class, is abandoned by the manufacturing base.

I imagine if you are in Florida, you are surrounded by retirees who are on a combination of fixed and indexed pensions. The strong areas would be infrastructure, as you described.

The weak areas, and I am guessing, would be for profit corporate institutions that are responsible for the well being of the most vulnerable and unseen members of society. Like the prison system. How is Florida's prison system? What is the incarceration rate? How is the plea bargaining system functioning? For profit extended care facilities? How are their 'clients' doing?

You are immersed in Jordan Peterson, who I greatly admire....but remember, he is a Canadian liberal, a professor who lectured a middle to upper class crowd of kids of a certain ilk that needed a solid dressing down by someone who understood them. His message isn't political. He is addressing kids who don't understand politics at all, and use it to cover personal deficits. Good on him.

He is out of his own depth when it comes to real politic as it isn't within his domain.

What he says about the bible is fantastic and we all know that Jesus was all about sharing, caring, and loving your neighbour.

In our current age, this should be extended to the global realm, as well as to those in our own communites, -- 'the invisibles'. The servant class, the elderly, the prisoner in solitary confinement going slowly mad, those whose suffering is meaningless, purposeless, that increases pathology in the world.

You should read Chris Hedges. He was a minister at one time. He can express what I am writing here, far better than I can!


hey Jess, I think Peterson is a credible scientist across several dimensions and has a pretty solid grasp of real politik. "Clean your room", "make a schedule" etc. Much of his message is rooted in practicality actually.

I'm surprised there is solid infrastructure anywhere. That's the spirit of what I was trying to say. It's a miracle. We're surrounded by miracles everywhere; they're ubiquitous, and over time we've taken them for granted. We now feel entitled to them. And having grown entitled, it's easy to sit back and take apart the institutions that have assisted in providing them. Our institutions, at their worst, are prone to corruption and it's prudent to be on guard against that, but imo not at the expense of the extreme gratitude we should all feel for all the wonderful things they've provided us with. Valid institutions are built on competence, not corruption, and it's easy in our haste to confuse the two and grow nihilistic and ungrateful. I try to stay on guard against that, even if I overcompensate sometimes.

Consider university for a moment. Humanity has worked tirelessly to provide us all with a 4 year period where we can do nearly anything we like. Four years of freedom and study and partying and whatever floats your boat. If you do it right it'll be the best time of your life. You'll likely never get that opportunity again, no matter how long you live. That block of time is a bloody miracle! But all we hear nowadays is endless moaning about loans and so on...and Yale students complaining about being "oppressed". It's pitiful

I had a Brit friend who was the most anti-institution (and anti-humanity) person I'd ever met. Death to the humans was his battle cry, and I was never quite sure how literally he meant it. He had the philosophy of a brooding teenager, complete with all the bitterness and resentment of someone who hadn't taken any personal responsibility for himself and saw life and everyone in it as meaningless and expendable. But here's the thing: he had been on government benefits for almost 20 years when I met him, and the irony of his thinking was completely lost on him (and he's a smart guy too).

This represents an extreme, I know. But I see more and more people like this these days. It's spreading, like a sickness.

I'm a big believer in personal responsibility. If we say all institutions are corrupt, then we can conveniently blame them and avoid taking personal responsibility for ourselves. This is the disturbing trend i see happening these days, particularly on college campuses. We should be helping to mold young people who want to go out and work towards ending all that needless suffering you spoke of, but instead we're creating authoritarian brats.

Chris Hedges, thanks. Will have a look.

p.s. a confession: I never watched the video in the OP and may be wildly off-topic. Apologies if I am:)

[shaberon]

I'm a big believer in personal responsibility. If we say all institutions are corrupt, then we can conveniently blame them and avoid taking personal responsibility for ourselves. This is the disturbing trend i see happening these days, particularly on college campuses.

Hmm. There is something to that, but I would twist it a little differently.

Most of the major institutions are corrupt and undesirable, and, most of the common people are corrupt and undesirable.

It is simply the wrong attitude of any provider to say "you got to eat today, be my slave". It is true that I, personally, have made major use of oil, so maybe I am culpable/to blame, for being coerced to participate in a system I don't agree with. I tend not to worry about that. In the actual "scruples" types of issues--responsibilities where you have a choice, or might have to go out of your way or something like that--I am certain there is a night and day difference between myself, and way more than half of everyone I've ever seen. When it is obvious that half or more of everybody is just a wolfpack, well, "what would they do" given a high office or any influential position, I shudder to think.

The number of times I have cheated or hurt anyone is...I haven't.

The number of lives I have shattered in relation to such things is countless.

The number of institutions I have challenged are none. Mentally, yes, but not actually. All I can still say about the meat industry now is about the same as thirty years ago, with the new thing of whether anyone works there.

However, in terms of infrastructure, we are going to need something. We have had hog lagoons bust, and electric company reservoirs, and something like 1/3 of the almost 1,500 dams are showing signs of failure. Also most of the plumbing is iron pipes over fifty years old and that is going to start to rot. I personally like warm showers and most of them do use coal-fired electricity to rust out the tube. I would still like to have them. But I think once we have heated indoor plumbing, we are already pretty much at the apex of nature, and a lot of the additional things going into our houses are corrupt and undesirable.

[Bill Ryan]

With reference to this thread: (and much else in the world)


The murder of George Floyd in police hands, Minneapolis, 25 May 2020 (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?111084-The-murder-of-George-Floyd-in-police-hands-Minneapolis-25-May-2020)

I really am starting to wonder if the system is coming down. It feels that there may be something a little different happening right now. Of course, the US riots are only a symptom (though a very serious one), but it's possible they may take quite a lot of stopping.

If so, this may or may not be deliberately engineered or encouraged. Cui Bono? is always there. But whatever we may be watching play out, it feels important. As Neil Howe argues, it's exactly the 'perfect storm' for a major, domino-chain tipping point.

[spade]

Yesterday, an uncle of mine just woke up to the fact that the medical industrial complex has just failed him. He used to have faith in the medical industry, but after the HCQ Garbage Science debacle from the reputable Lancet. That blew a giant hole in his faith.

[AutumnW]

People need order, structure, security and meaning in their lives. We are drifting without purpose, while the world mechanizes and enriches a few while shutting out everyone else.

Many will return with extended families to the land. There is going to be a huge struggle to implement change while fighting a pandemic. The uncertainty about the nature of the pandemic and ensuing paranoia will be another part of that struggle.

We need progressive and humane democratic socialism, once and for all, in the U.S. They killed John F. Kennedy and his brother for their attempts to get the ball rolling on that and the elite have obstructed it ever since with propaganda that well suited the libertarian zeitgeist of the boomer generation.

So, be part of the change, or get run over by it. The riots are part of the spirit of the times, a demand for civility and respect.

[Mike]

People need order, structure, security and meaning in their lives. We are drifting without purpose, while the world mechanizes and enriches a few while shutting out everyone else.

Many will return with extended families to the land. There is going to be a huge struggle to implement change while fighting a pandemic. The uncertainty about the nature of the pandemic and ensuing paranoia will be another part of that struggle.

We need progressive and humane democratic socialism, once and for all, in the U.S. They killed John F. Kennedy and his brother for their attempts to get the ball rolling on that and the elite have obstructed it ever since with propaganda that well suited the libertarian zeitgeist of the boomer generation.

So, be part of the change, or get run over by it. The riots are part of the spirit of the times, a demand for civility and respect.


Can you pls explain what democratic socialism is exactly? I've never really known what that means. Thx

[AutumnW]

Democratic socialism means different things to different people. I will give you my own examples. Other living in socialist countries might not agree.

Currently, in the U.S. large corporations dictate to government. They often write legislation that congress and senate sign off on. They are the literal authors.

When corporations dictate, they capture regulatory agencies, like the FAA, and Boeing gets sloppy -- for example. People die. This can also be due to simple government underfunding, but is usually a combination of both. They work well together.

The EPA, is captured by the oil industry. The CDC is underfunded and the FDA is captured by pharmaceutical companies.

Libertarians fail to focus on this as they think government, by its very nature, is bad. They don't realize that, at least currently, public governmental agencies, free of conflict of interest and properly funded, work very well. It's corruption from outside corporate interests that undermine them and make them much less efficient and downright dangerous.

I suppose government and private industry will always have to dance together, but they shouldn't settle down and get married and share the same bed.

Democratic socialists dance with private industry too, but the govt will step on the corporations toes, and is the leading partner. They don't obstruct business necessarily, but make them play by the rules.

Taxes for the upper middle classes and the wealthy are higher in Socialist states, but healthcare is paid for by the government. Our education system is different. Teachers are very well paid. We have fewer super rich per capita and fewer super poor. Yet we still have way too many homeless and are plagued with political correctness that arises out of a strong egalitarian ideology that can be counter productive at times.

Our anti hate speech laws, for example, though usually positive, likely intimidated the press into silence while Vancouver was flooded with rich Asians, some of whom were drug dealing fentanyl pushers. They are largely responsible for homelessness in Vancouver as they were laundering money through real estate and driving up the prices.

This is likely too, why the people of Hong Kong hate the mainland Chinese so much. Same thing happened there only worse.

We vote, just like you. The system is not rigged. We are not Communists. We have fewer super wealthy but fewer poorer and a strong and fair rule of law, without the death penalty and much less harsh sentences for nearly all felonies than the U.S. Nobody in Canada is thrown in jail by the CRA, our version of the IRS. It may have happened but not to anyone I know or have ever heard of.

Nevertheless, democratic socialism isn't without problems. It isn't Utopia. We have problems with racism, our health care system can be problematic too, but no Canadian ever wants to go to a private industry system. Our extended care facilities for the elderly in some provinces HAVE been taken over by private industry and are some of the worst in the developed world. This will change. If it doesn't WE will riot!!

I hope this is an okay explanation? Maybe others can add to it. Take care, Mike.

[Mike]

Yes, that was helpful. Thanks!

Socialism is one of these things that my brain attempts to chase down but is never able to find and grab and stare at long enough to make any sense out of. I can only see bits and pieces of it at a time, and never the full picture. It's elusive for me somehow. The cognitive dissonance i get thinking about it is off the charts.

For example, when I read the definition of socialism, I understand the words I'm reading but can't get them to mean anything coherent. I just looked it up again. This is what I got:

- a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole. (sounds like resentful utopians on acid arrived at that idea. it frightens me. this occasionally works for small businesses and it makes for wonderful feel-good stories, but for larger entities is pretty impractical, isn't it?)

policy or practice based on the political and economic theory of socialism (this isn't very helpful)

(in Marxist theory) a transitional state between the overthrow of capitalism and the realization of communism (no thanks!:))

So what does all of that mean exactly? Practically?

I do like the idea of some things being socialized, as I understand the word. Medicine comes to mind immediately. The corruption between big pharma and the FDA for example, is absolutely evil. It sickens me to the core.

And I don't think big business should be involved in US elections. At all. No donations. I strongly believe every candidate should be operating from ground zero.

Education is another. A free college education seems both humane and reasonable. The loans hanging over graduate's heads are like metaphorical nooses, tightening up with each advancing year.

A clever capitalist would likely tell me that I'd be paying for healthcare and education anyway, via higher taxation. And this is where my knowledge of the situation expires. I'm left in sort of a philosophical no man's land because I can't effectively rebuke or debate the point in any credible way. I just don't know the numbers and how all that works. Plus, I barely know my times tables.

Up until a couple years ago maybe, I didn't think socialism allowed for any private enterprise. (Even last night, for example, I was googling can you get rich in socialist societies?) And now that I know it does allow for private enterprise, obviously, my next question would be: just how involved in private enterprise is the government in democratic socialism? Exactly. I do like the idea of democratic socialism in the abstract, but I'd need to know exactly how much involvement they'd have on private business. And which businesses? All of them? And then I'd need an unbiased and highly qualified economist to explain to me all the ramifications of that:).

Ideally, what I'd like to see (and maybe this is what you're describing) is a hybrid system of open markets and capitalism. Yeah, it's been explained to me many times why this is a poor idea, how it will fail, and so on. But I still like it. I'd like to see a system where people can still make obscene amounts of money - but only up to a point - and anything that exceeds an imposed ceiling would be recycled to the bottom. I'm sure someone much smarter than me will arrive and pick that apart, and fair enough.

Of course, the social and the economic always blend, and I'm not totally convinced democracy and socialism are compatible bedfellows. As you know, what I fear most is the ideological underpinnings of socialist thinking, like egalitarianism, equity, and so forth. I don't think anyone can truly know what socialism is until they live it; and even then, it depends on what version of it they're living in. And I think that's at the root of my dissonance...the apparent spectrum-like nature of socialism - throughout history it's application ranges from doses here n there to a full fledged ideology. Everyone has a different idea of it's meaning, so I can't quite put my thumb on it. Plus, being American, I've been deluged with all the horror stories of China and the Soviet Union of course, so I have to sort of fight thru all that to arrive at any kind of objectivity.

I take your testimony very seriously. You know I respect your mind, and you've given me some things to think about..things I can hold in my hand and stare at and make sense out of. Thanks for taking the time

[christian]

In essence, our institutions are our slave masters. Our institutions take care of us like slave masters take care of slaves. Without the institutions, we'd have more freedom, but less security. But we could potentially become much more as free humans than as slaves. That's the challenge, was the challenge, and will always be the challenge—to take self-responsibility.

I'm all for dethroning the current institutions by building new ones. Decentralized, voluntary, so that the old ones may just fade away. They will, of course, struggle to survive, which may be quite unpleasant at times, but the more focus and energy is put into creating new institutions, the more the old will vanish.

Everybody who takes any step towards becoming a sovereign being in thinking, feeling and acting helps with this, everything counts, always. It's not about people having "the right opinion" or doing "the right thing," it's about people using their own discernment and acting in their own conscience. The more people do this, the better. That's the decentralized empowerment of humanity that's uncontrollable and unstoppable, unlike a movement that's built around figureheads and followers, although there will always be some elements of hierarchy in society, that's OK, as long as hierarchies are flexible and based on merit.

Here's a little text from Michail Bakunin, expanding on what this means. It was published in 1882. Bakunin had been the antagonist of Karl Marx in the International Workingman's Association.



Does it follow that I reject all authority? Far from me such a thought. In the matter of boots, I refer to the authority of the bootmaker; concerning houses, canals, or railroads, I consult that of the architect or engineer. For such or such special knowledge, I apply to such or such a savant. But I allow neither the bootmaker nor the architect nor the savant to impose his authority upon me. I listen to them freely and with all the respect merited by their intelligence, their character, their knowledge, reserving always my incontestable right of criticism censure. I do not content myself with consulting authority in any special branch; I consult several; I compare their opinions and choose that which seems to me the soundest. But I recognize no infallible authority, even in special questions; consequently, whatever respect I may have for the honesty and the sincerity of such or such an individual, I have no absolute faith in any person. Such a faith would be fatal to my reason, to my liberty, and even to the success of my undertakings; it would immediately transform me into a stupid slave, an instrument of the will and interests of others.

If I bow before the authority of the specialists and avow my readiness to follow—to a certain extent and as long as may seem to me necessary—their indications and even their directions, it is because their authority is imposed upon me by no one […]. Otherwise, I would repel them with horror and bid the devil take their counsels, their directions and their services, certain that they would make me pay, by the loss of my liberty and self-respect, for such scraps of truth, wrapped in a multitude of lies, as they might give me.

I bow before the authority of special men, because it is imposed upon me by my own reason. I am conscious of my inability to grasp, in all its details and positive developments, any very large portion of human knowledge. The greatest intelligence would not be equal to a comprehension of the whole. Thence results, for science as well as for industry, the necessity of the division and association of labor. I receive and I give—such is human life. Each directs and is directed in his turn. Therefore there is no fixed and constant authority, but a continual exchange of mutual, temporary, and, above all, voluntary authority and subordination.

The original working-class movement was overwhelmingly in favor of Bakunin's model, not of Marx's model with an intellectual elite that brings about harmony with radical central planning. Bakunin was of the opinion that this would lead to a one-party tyranny. Go figure. Bakunin, on the other hand, advocated for immediate decentralization. That seemed to be in the workers' best interest, why would they want some intellectuals governing them? But with the brutal obliteration of the anarchists in Spain, in Ukraine and elsewhere, and with the rise of the Soviet Union, funded by Wall Street and other monied interests, Marxism became synonymous with leftist working-class movements. The modern left has yet to rediscover its historical roots.


Considering all the tragedy and suffering and malevolence that exists in the world today, I think it's a miracle when I walk outside in the morning and there isn't total anarchy in the streets.

What you mean is anomy (Ancient Greek: an- = not; nómos = custom, law). Anarchy (archē = governance) means that nobody would violate anyone's person or property.


We need progressive and humane democratic socialism, once and for all, in the U.S. They killed John F. Kennedy and his brother for their attempts to get the ball rolling on that and the elite have obstructed it ever since with propaganda that well suited the libertarian zeitgeist of the boomer generation.

Socialism is an 'essentially contested concept,' which is just a sophisticated way of saying that people don't agree on what it means. If I would have to break 'socialism' down, I'd say it usually describes a society that relies heavily on political institutions for the administration of society in order to ensure social equality and the welfare of all citizens.

I can believe that Kennedy wanted to do some benevolent things and that this got him killed. The same goes for many socialist politicians like Patrice Lumumba in Congo, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, Silvanus Olympio in Togo, Salvador Allende in Chile, and many others. There are socialist politicians whom I consider genuinely benevolent. Yet I still believe that full sovereignty of every human being is the most benevolent thing to aim for. That's true libertarianism. In the US, the libertarian zeitgeist of the boomer generation was mostly propaganda. You can't have a bank-state fiat money cartel and a military-industrial complex and all the rest of it and pretend you're libertarian. That's cronyism, corporatocracy, a deep state, call it what you will, but certainly not libertarian.


I do like the idea of some things being socialized, as I understand the word.

With anarchy, you can have that. You can socialize all you want with cooperatives, non-profits, worker-owned companies, etc.

You can also have all kinds of profit-oriented companies. Anarchy, in essence, is a neutral, fertile soil, for different societal constructs to emerge peacefully side-by-side or in cooperation.

That's the beauty of anarchy, it lets people come up with so many different answers to the demands of society, but never forces any solution or idea upon anyone.


Libertarians […] think government, by its very nature, is bad. They don't realize that, at least currently, public governmental agencies, free of conflict of interest and properly funded, work very well.

As long as human beings have individual desires, whether conscious or sub-conscious, there will be conflicts of interest in politics and there will be conflicts of interest between the government and the governed. I agree that these can be big or small, but they can never be zero, except in some fantastic utopia where the government is of pure intent and telepathically aligned with the governed.

The nature of government is coercion, forcing its will into existence. That's not good or bad per se. It's just that the power to use coercion corrupts people in our day and age from the inside. There are many psychological studies that demonstrate this, but we can also see it in history. It's empirically proven. For just one summary of this issue, I recommend "The Power Paradox" (https://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article/item/power_paradox) from Dacher Keltner.

Governments can be benevolent, we can find examples of that as well. The overall trend, however, is more individual sovereignty leads to more peace and prosperity.


Democratic socialists dance with private industry too, but the govt will step on the corporations toes, and is the leading partner. They don't obstruct business necessarily, but make them play by the rules.

I think it's playing with a fire that nobody can control. I like how J.R.R. Tolkien said it, that "the most improper job of any man, even saints (who at any rate were at least unwilling to take it on), is bossing other men. Not one in a million is fit for it, and least of all those who seek the opportunity."

To believe that a benevolent government will enact fair laws and make corporations play by these rules seems to me like believing that you (or someone who you support) can put on the One Ring and do good.


Ideally, what I'd like to see (and maybe this is what you're describing) is a hybrid system of open markets and capitalism. Yeah, it's been explained to me many times why this is a poor idea, how it will fail, and so on. But I still like it. I'd like to see a system where people can still make obscene amounts of money - but only up to a point - and anything that exceeds an imposed ceiling would be recycled to the bottom.

Here's the conundrum. You don't want anyone to become a monopolist, and in order to avoid that you want to have a monopolist. All based on the premise that the state is the benevolent monopolist that would do only that recycling. But who funds that redistribution machine? Who collects the money? Who protects the state? How much is redistributed and to whom exactly? On our current plane of existence, there is no shirking these questions. And while I like the model you propose in a philosophical sense, I don't see how a government could accomplish this where we are. Instead, the way to implement it would be to just do it on an individual level, do it smartly, with focus, dedication, insistence, and promote it. If people pick it up, it will become a thing. It all rests on individuals taking responsibility. That actually could work.

The state is a monopolist, and the most dangerous one, as we can see in history, as we can see today. All these corporate criminals today got rich through the state. They got rich cause the state is rigged in their favor, cause the state is the massive weapon that it is, attracting corporate mobsters like light attracts moths, and who in politics is immune to them?

Roland Baader wrote in 2010, "On truly free markets, monopolies could hardly arise. If they would, they wouldn’t exist for long. On the one hand, every monopoly reaches a point at which the exploitation of the monopoly is finished, meaning that the company cannot profit from increased prices and the revenue goes down. On the other hand, open market access would attract competitors and producers of substitute goods that would try to outcompete the monopolist if there would be even the slightest tendency towards a monopoly. Monopolies can remain only when they’re protected by politics."

Most of the prosperity that exists right now exists because of the ingenuity of people and despite the actions of governments. If we could just get government out of the way in the education system, for example, it would make more progress in 10 years than there was in the last 100 years, and it would be cheaper than you ever imagined. The decentralization of learning, along with all of its chances and benefits, has been a top trend in Gerald Celente's Trends Journal (https://trendsresearch.com/the-future-of-learning/) for years. To take away the monopoly on education from the state would be a blow to the old paradigm, the importance of which we can probably not overestimate. This is what got Francisco Ferrer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francisco_Ferrer) killed in 1909.

I believe the only way to move forward is education and diligent work, getting smart about economics and politics. Individuals using their own creativity and discernment. It's the hardest road, progress will always be slow and painstaking. Yet it's the only way that has ever worked and will ever work.

Sounds a tad dry, and it is, but if people along the way also open up to the reality that we're infinite consciousness having an experience, it all becomes kind of fun.

As far as I can see, there will always be governments. Any group of people voting on how to do something has some sort of democratic government system. If friends vote on how to split a bill, that's democratic socialism in practice, one that I'm perfectly fine with. I just think that it only truly works if there is an understanding that any violation of the democratic code would cause the rest to contest this behavior once they discover it. You can have this sort of democracy in an anarchist society. And you would have it in all sorts of groups. Sometimes it would work out beneficially, sometimes it wouldn't. As the state is made to be the monopolist of force, its failure is always humongous, whereas failures of private, voluntary entities tend to be smaller. In the end, that's one of the main selling points for anarchy. It minimizes the negative effects of human stupidity. We're a primitive bunch. But the greatest danger is not individuals acting crazy, it's conformist masses following this or that foolishness.

[spade]

#soros

"The Pandemic isn't working - Start the race wars"

Jonathan, my beloved son will take the lead

[Mike]

I'm a big believer in personal responsibility. If we say all institutions are corrupt, then we can conveniently blame them and avoid taking personal responsibility for ourselves. This is the disturbing trend i see happening these days, particularly on college campuses.

Hmm. There is something to that, but I would twist it a little differently.

Most of the major institutions are corrupt and undesirable, and, most of the common people are corrupt and undesirable.

It is simply the wrong attitude of any provider to say "you got to eat today, be my slave". It is true that I, personally, have made major use of oil, so maybe I am culpable/to blame, for being coerced to participate in a system I don't agree with. I tend not to worry about that. In the actual "scruples" types of issues--responsibilities where you have a choice, or might have to go out of your way or something like that--I am certain there is a night and day difference between myself, and way more than half of everyone I've ever seen. When it is obvious that half or more of everybody is just a wolfpack, well, "what would they do" given a high office or any influential position, I shudder to think.

The number of times I have cheated or hurt anyone is...I haven't.

The number of lives I have shattered in relation to such things is countless.

The number of institutions I have challenged are none. Mentally, yes, but not actually. All I can still say about the meat industry now is about the same as thirty years ago, with the new thing of whether anyone works there.

However, in terms of infrastructure, we are going to need something. We have had hog lagoons bust, and electric company reservoirs, and something like 1/3 of the almost 1,500 dams are showing signs of failure. Also most of the plumbing is iron pipes over fifty years old and that is going to start to rot. I personally like warm showers and most of them do use coal-fired electricity to rust out the tube. I would still like to have them. But I think once we have heated indoor plumbing, we are already pretty much at the apex of nature, and a lot of the additional things going into our houses are corrupt and undesirable.



If you have been shattered countless times it may just mean that you've been rather naive, and having committed the same mistake of naivete over and over again are in some ways equally as guilty as those you view as perpetrators. It may just be that you're allowing yourself to be taken advantage of repetitively so you can assume a victim's role and avoid the responsibility that comes with self empowerment.

And if you've never ever hurt anyone, it may not necessarily mean you're a good person; it may just mean you're too scared to hurt someone because you fear reprisals.

Or...you may be the absolute saint your post suggests. I don't know. I'm just offering up hypotheticals as sort of an intellectual exercise.

I'd say most common people are generally kind and well intentioned, and most institutions are competent and effective. If they weren't, society wouldn't be able to function in any coherent way. The waiter wouldn't bring you your food, the man wouldn't hold the door for you, the woman wouldn't give the homeless veteran a 20 dollar bill, the uber wouldnt show up, the dentist wouldn't pull your tooth, the plane wouldn't take off, the traffic lights wouldn't work, the grocery store would be empty, your plumbing would fail, the electrical grid would go down, and the violence and looting in the streets would make what we see now look like a little firecracker party.

[Ernie Nemeth]

Yes. A big part of the agenda is the corruption of innocence, or as you say, naivete. That's why they like abusing young children...

[ExomatrixTV]

The Fourth Turning - How this crisis was predicted 30 years ago:
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Is War Coming? The Fourth Turning and Top Five 2020 Prediction Systems
FEFkGpZEy0U

[ThePythonicCow]

There is a new update at TheBurningPlatform.com (https://www.theburningplatform.com), posted yesterday, on where we stand in this Fourth Turning.

It's one fine read: IT’S A FOURTH TURNING: WHAT DID YOU EXPECT? (https://www.theburningplatform.com/2021/09/20/its-a-fourth-turning-what-did-you-expect/). Do give it a read!

Below are three of the opening paragraphs, as a teaser. You can find the entire article at the above link.

=== ===



I’ve been pondering this Fourth Turning in articles since its spectacular onset in September 2008, with the Wall Street/Federal Reserve initiated global financial implosion. The description above is apt, as this ongoing two-decade long storm gains intensity and our freedoms, liberties and rights are slowly extinguished as the electricity flickers and our modern civilization reverts to a more brutish state of antipathy among competing tribes, based on race, gender, class, party, geographic location, and now medical status.


We are in the midst of a saecular winter that is guaranteed to become more violent and bitter, as the malevolent forces propelling this Crisis have decided to ramp up fear propaganda to implement their global reset, using authoritarian methods to compel the masses to comply. I’ve intellectually understood we would be faced with trials and tribulations that would threaten the continuation of our way of life and survival as a unified nation. The reality is proving to be far worse. The core elements of debt, civic decay, and global disorder are most certainly propelling this Crisis towards its bloody climax. I knew there was no way to sidestep or escape this Fourth Turning.

But I didn’t expect a Deep State coup against a sitting president; a stolen presidential election through the collusion of the surveillance state, Big Tech, Big Media and billionaire oligarchs; a weaponized flu used as cover for an imploding financial system; an authoritarian global lockdown which has destroyed small businesses and impoverished the working class, while enriching mega-corporations and the elite ruling class; and now a Big Pharma experimental gene therapy disguised as a vaccine used to divide America into hostile tribes spewing hate online, with a strong possibility of violence because Biden and his handlers are attempting to provoke those refusing his vaccine mandate into committing acts of aggression.

=== ===

[ThePythonicCow]

.
This is not exactly a Fourth Turning viewpoint, but it's quite along the same lines.

Clif High has an inspiring vision of "The Greatest Generation Ever", now in their youth, going through the hard times of the global demise of the Death Cult that has ruled over humanity for the last 6,000 years:

zgWKzyIdMRLV

As another old man in his 70's, like Clif High, I didn't know if I'd live long enough to begin to see how this might unfold. I didn't have the health challenges that Clif did, but I also did not know how quickly, or slowly, it would take to "turn the tide" on this great struggle of humanity.

We have yet to face the full brunt of the global financial, and monetary collapse, as the Debt Money system fails. Debt Money has been used in recent centuries by this Death Cult that has ruled over us since the time of Babylon. Their tyrannical medical, education, propaganda, legal, colonizing, enslavement, genocidal, monopolizing, political and globalized economic systems are already collapsing.

Give Clif a listen! It's just 7+ minutes long and well polished in its presentation.

[Bill Ryan]

Bumping this thread with an new report just published on Zero Hedge. :thumbsup:


https://zerohedge.com/geopolitical/fourth-turning-now-raging-and-neil-howe-warns-its-gone-global

"The Fourth Turning is now Raging..." and Neil Howe Warns "It's Gone Global"

History tells us that civilizations and societies boom, bust and rise anew to repeat the pattern - a pattern that demographer Neil Howe says is surprisingly predictable in both its timing and trajectory.

Howe refers to these "seasons" of societal change as "turnings", and has famously has declared America is now well into a Fourth Turning, the "bust" part of its cycle - where the status quo falls apart - often chaotically - and is replaced by a brand new order.

Well, in its first 100 days, the Trump administration has certainly made big - and some would say disruptive or even chaotic - strides in its attempt to replace the previous status quo with a new playbook, both domestically and internationally.

Is this the kind of textbook Fourth Turning upheaval that Howe expected?

Neil Howe affirms that the global shift from globalization to nationalism, driven by Trump’s America First policies and parallel movements (e.g., Meloni in Italy, Modi in India), is a hallmark of the fourth turning.

This trend, accelerating since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, reflects a rejection of the U.S.-subsidized world order, with Trump criticizing globalization as a “bad deal” for America.

Howe notes widespread support for re-industrialization and immigration control, aligning with populist demands for economic sovereignty and cultural identity, a classic fourth turning dismantling of established systems.

Howe explains that this bust phase, characterized by the collapse of the status quo and the rise of a new order, is not limited to the United States but is synchronized globally, with populist, nationalist, and authoritarian movements emerging worldwide.
"The trend in the west certainly and now the rest of the world has been we've seen a synchronization of these turnings… it's global. It's now global."
He highlights the Trump administration’s disruptive policies - such as tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and deregulation - as emblematic of Fourth Turning chaos...
"Trump is a necessary figure… unleashing something pretty primal. Where it goes though, I don’t think even Trump understands."
...but notes inherent contradictions, particularly between trade protectionism and fiscal deficits.
"You cannot eliminate trade and therefore credit flows from the American economy while running up the deficit… We will literally have nothing left to invest in capital spending in America."
Howe predicts increased volatility, legal battles, and potential crises (economic, political, or geopolitical) that could catalyze major institutional reshaping by the 2030s, when a new "First Turning" might emerge.
"History also suggests we need some sort of conflict… We need something that would really ensure that people actually reshape institutions for a reason."
He advises investors to focus on absolute returns, hedge against volatility, and prioritize assets like commodities, gold, defense, and infrastructure, while emphasizing personal resilience to navigate the turbulent period ahead.
"Pay most attention to [financial professionals] that talk a lot about absolute return and don’t get sidetracked in looking at the relative return to other indexes."
he “new golden age” is unlikely to emerge directly from Trump’s agenda due to legal battles (e.g., tariff laws, impoundment) and economic fallout (e.g., recession risks from labor cuts). Neil sees history resolving contradictions, potentially forcing fiscal discipline by weaning America off foreign credit, a painful but necessary step.

Trump’s legacy will be a transformed, protected America, but the fourth turning’s resolution—via domestic implosion or external conflict—will shape the 2030s first turning, with public mobilization determining the new order’s form.

Watch the full interview below:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDVm_E6I0GQ

Full transcript and summary can be read here. (https://adamtaggart.substack.com/p/neil-howe-the-fourth-turning-is-now)

[grapevine]

For some reason the Fourth Turning just passed me by but I find myself thinking about it quite a lot now, looking both backwards and forwards . . .

With the sentiments of the Fourth Turning in mind then, I feel that I was born at the very best time in the last 100 years in 1951. My childhood was unfettered and I was free to play in the park all day, arriving home at tea time exhausted from having a damn good time. And then after leaving school, there were so many employment opportunities there for the taking, fares were low and people started going abroad for their holidays rather than a scant week in Bognor or Brighton. I remember my mother who was born in 1926 saying to me, "Your generation has everything and ours had nothing - the war ruined everyone's lives", and she was talking about WW2 of course, although her own parents probably caught WW1 as well. :(

Now I feel guilty and fearful that the current escalating chaos will swallow our childrens 'opportunities and suspect that my generation is largely responsible for what is happening now because we were lotus eaters, not paying any attention to these trends.

So together with the knowledge that we create our own reality, and armed with the Four Turnings information, will the next Turning be any different? I think not, that there's an inevitability to it all, passing like the seasons .

Feeling whimsical . . . :flower:

[norman]

4th turnings ? . . . 'inspired' themes ? . . . . predictive programmings ?




Now I feel guilty and fearful that the current escalating chaos will swallow our children's 'opportunities and suspect that my generation is largely responsible for what is happening now because we were lotus eaters, not paying any attention to these trends.

So together with the knowledge that we create our own reality, and armed with the Four Turnings information, will the next Turning be any different? I think not, that there's an inevitability to it all, passing like the seasons .

Feeling whimsical . . . :flower:

turmoil in mindland



. . the point when humanity loses faith in its institutions.

Neil Howe argues that this is happening right now, and this tipping point can sometimes lead to dark times in human history.


A nihilist might reach a 'darkness' when his/her 'faith' in the constructed pillars of institutionally organised mind reality dissolves but a healthier connected sentience might find it to be something more like a cerebral 'whiteness'.

The degree to which any individual swings the one way or the other might match the degree to which they were lost or disconnected from the source of sentient life, in the first place.

A connected being might experience a greater than ever gratitude for the vanishing of the built up crud and fakery. An NPC running on programmed intellect, sure, that could be devastating, but not hopeless. Have you ever watched a video recording of an exorcism ?

Losing faith or losing fake faith ? . . . that could be experienced as death or it could be experienced as a clarity with the veil removed. It seems to depend on what or who you really were, or, more specifically, what or who you were habitually practicing a commitment to, before the unveiling.

As plain and obvious as all this is to me, my own soul mind has it's own terror. A battle field terror. A spiritual battle field terror.

Fight, fight, fight . . . .

[none of us get out of here alive]