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View Full Version : Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war of 2020



silvanelf
26th April 2020, 20:41
Lmao ... I think giving an ultimatum to Putin is a pretty bad idea ...


Reports claim that the Saudi crown prince threatened Russian president over production cuts prior to flooding market. A source for the Middle East Eye reports that ‘the call ended badly.’

Via Middle East Eye… (https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-saudis-launched-oil-price-war-after-mbs-shouting-match-putin)

A telephone call last month between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman degenerated into a shouting match just before Riyadh decided to flood the market with oil in a move which sent prices spiralling.

Saudi officials with knowledge of the disastrous call told Middle East Eye that the row threatened to undo months of detente between the two countries, in which a significant arms trade was also agreed.

The call took place just before an Opec+ meeting on 6 March, in which major oil producers failed to agree a deal on cutting production despite falling global demand as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic.

“Just before that meeting there was a call between Putin and MBS. MBS was very aggressive and gave an ultimatum. He threatened that if there is no agreement, Saudi would start a price war.

“The conversation was very personal. They shouted at each other. Putin refused the ultimatum and the call ended badly,” the Saudi official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Before getting aggressive with Putin, bin Salman checked in with Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior advisor, who has been described as “the prince’s most important defender inside the White House”, according to a second source who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

“The call [to Putin] had Trump’s blessing through Kushner. Kushner did not ask MBS to do it, but Kushner knew about it and did not veto it. Bin Salman drew his own conclusions,” the source said.

--- snip ---

more at link: https://theduran.com/oil-price-war-started-after-shouting-match-between-putin-and-mbs-video/

Cognitive Dissident
27th April 2020, 10:58
Certainly, MBS is way out of his league (as is Kushner). The main target of the Saudi cuts was not Russia, but US shale - of course for political reasons MBS cannot say that, so he has a row with Putin as cover. Kinda surprised that Putin would respond with a personal attack on MBS, seems unnecessary. Or, maybe Putin didn't do that.

Given the oil price will likely be very low for a long time (6-12 months at least) many oil exporting countries will go bust. Russia much better placed to weather the storm than Saudi which is bloated and running huge budget deficit. Interesting background: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-moving-end-game-27-tankers-anchored-california-hundreds-singapore-oil-industry-shuts

silvanelf
27th April 2020, 14:04
Certainly, MBS is way out of his league (as is Kushner). The main target of the Saudi cuts was not Russia, but US shale - of course for political reasons MBS cannot say that, so he has a row with Putin as cover. Kinda surprised that Putin would respond with a personal attack on MBS, seems unnecessary. Or, maybe Putin didn't do that.

That's a very interesting view!

"The main target of the Saudi cuts was not Russia, but US shale" - that's obvious if you take a look at this report:

1252970569810751491

Baby Steps
27th April 2020, 14:39
43449

Of course, this graph is highly approximate, the basic picture is that Saudi and Russia have some fields where extraction is very cheap, whereas much of US capacity costs as much as $60 per barrel to extract, because it is fracked, and involves injection of acid, plus disposal of large volumes of highly toxic contaminated water by-product.

inevitably much of the us fracking industry will close soon.

The figures are not to be confused with statements such as 'Russia or the Saudis need $100 oil to balance the books. That calculation is based on the cost of their own state apparatus and the contribution towards this that the oil makes. So therefore if Russia can produce oil for $10, and sell at $15 they will because that $5 goes towards the state.


Commercial frackers have to turn a profit or get bailed out or go bust.

DeDukshyn
27th April 2020, 15:35
Certainly, MBS is way out of his league (as is Kushner). The main target of the Saudi cuts was not Russia, but US shale - of course for political reasons MBS cannot say that, so he has a row with Putin as cover. Kinda surprised that Putin would respond with a personal attack on MBS, seems unnecessary. Or, maybe Putin didn't do that.

Given the oil price will likely be very low for a long time (6-12 months at least) many oil exporting countries will go bust. Russia much better placed to weather the storm than Saudi which is bloated and running huge budget deficit. Interesting background: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-are-moving-end-game-27-tankers-anchored-california-hundreds-singapore-oil-industry-shuts

I always had the impression that what they discussed when they met was to see if each other would agree to tank the oil prices to hurt US oil production. US and Canadian oil is far more expensive to extract than Russian or Saudi oil, and I think with this COVID19 going to hurt the US economy (and thus dollar value), they saw an opportunity to try to crash the US dollar.