Extreme weather is just the beginning: Garnaut

[str8thinker]

Adam Morton
February 4, 2011

IF YOU are worried that Australia's floods, fires and cyclones are getting more intense, the federal government's key climate adviser says the scientific advice is clear: ''You ain't seen nothing yet.''

Launching the first of eight updates to his landmark 2008 climate change review, Professor Ross Garnaut said Australia was seeing an intensification of extreme weather events consistent with warnings from climate scientists.

The report, Weighing the costs and benefits of climate action, said climate change had already imposed substantial costs on Australia, and more were inevitable due to greenhouse gases already emitted but yet to take effect.

But Professor Garnaut said any intensification of weather events experienced to date, when the world has warmed by about 1 degree since industrialisation, was only a fraction of what could be expected under higher rises.

''The science says that without mitigation - and with the sorts of emissions growth that my analysis shows will follow the industrialisation of China, of India, of Indonesia and the acceleration of economic growth in Africa - then that first degree is just the beginning,'' Professor Garnaut said.

''So if we are seeing an intensification of extreme weather events now, you ain't seen nothing yet.''

His comments follow one of the world's biggest reinsurance companies, Swiss Re, warning Australia was becoming a riskier place to do business after a string of extreme natural disasters over the past two years.

Professor Garnaut said scientists predicted there would be more frequent extreme cyclones - though not necessarily more frequent cyclones - due to greenhouse gas emissions.

While it would take time before it was clear whether the number of extreme cyclones was growing in Australia, a recent study in the journal Nature found there had been a significant increase in the north Atlantic since the 1970s.

''There is no reason to think the physics will work differently in Australian air,'' Professor Garnaut said.

Bureau of Meteorology figures show the sea surface temperature in Australia's northern tropics was easily at its highest December level in more than 100 years of records last year.

Scientists say a cyclone that develops over a warmer ocean has greater energy and carries more water due to a higher level of evaporation.

Professor Garnaut is an adviser to the multiparty climate committee set up by Labor under a deal with Greens and independent MPs, looking at how to introduce a carbon price.

He said there had been three significant changes since his 2008 climate review:

■ The latest published science suggested the impact of climate change was likely to be more serious than three years ago.

■ Progress towards a comprehensive United Nations treaty has been slower than expected, increasing the likely costs of cutting emissions.

■ But the cost of clean technologies has fallen much faster than expected, particularly in China and the US.

Source (http://www.theage.com.au/national/extreme-weather-is-just-the-beginning-garnaut-20110203-1afgr.html)

[jackovesk]

Adam Morton
February 4, 2011

IF YOU are worried that Australia's floods, fires and cyclones are getting more intense, the federal government's key climate adviser says the scientific advice is clear: ''You ain't seen nothing yet.''

But Professor Garnaut said any intensification of weather events experienced to date, when the world has warmed by about 1 degree since industrialisation, was only a fraction of what could be expected under higher rises.

''The science says that without mitigation - and with the sorts of emissions growth that my analysis shows will follow the industrialisation of China, of India, of Indonesia and the acceleration of economic growth in Africa - then that first degree is just the beginning,'' Professor Garnaut said.

''So if we are seeing an intensification of extreme weather events now, you ain't seen nothing yet.''



Please don't take this personally str8thinker,

BUT, I would'nt Listen to a Word this Scumbag Professor Ross Garnaut has to say..!

NOT one Word of it!

Why?

http://ts1.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=428077621116&id=03690315db2e5f0fd6ecbdcb74a5187f&url=http%3a%2f%2fantipasministries.com%2fimages%2fjpeg%2fimage2345.jpg the Trilateral Commission that's Why!

Firstly, Professor Ross Garnaut is an Economist not a Scientist!

...and Secondly he gets his orders from the 'NWO Trilateral Commmission' which he has been a member of for many years!

Have a look for yourself on page 14 of the Trilateral Commisions 2010 Membership List...

http://www.trilateral.org/download/file/membership/TC_list_1-11.pdf

There is also another familiar name on the list ex-politician "John Hewson" another Economist turned Global Warming Expert who manages to push the same Agenda as Ross Garnaut!

http://www.trilateral.org/go.cfm?do=Page.View&pid=6


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMNs7plW7A8&feature=player_embedded

Ask yourself this question; Why do a pair of Economist's all of a sudden become an experts on 'Global Warming' oh sorry they changed the name to 'Climate Change' didn't they...and get so much MSM exposure?

Read this in Todays Herald Sun...

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion-old/cyclone-saw-alarmists-beat-their-drum/story-e6frfifx-1226000403114

...and This

Andrew Bolt Saturday, February 05, 2011 at 06:49am

IT HADN’T even hit yet, and already a gibbering horde was shrieking that Cyclone Yasi proved we’d warmed the world.

There was Christine Milne, of course, deputy leader of the Greens, the most deceitful party to shame Parliament. How fast she flapped up the microphones to crow: “It is a tragedy of climate change.”

Then there was ABC Melbourne 774 host Jon Faine, snapping that sceptics should finally “join the dots”, and inviting alarmist scientist Graeme Pearman to say we’d never had such cyclones before.

Oh, and here comes John Hewson, the former Liberal leader and sniffer of business opportunities, saying warmists had predicted “more frequent cyclones” and “that’s what we’re seeing”.

John, give up the green, mate. The colour doesn’t suit and that market’s set to tank.

Add to them the Gillard Government’s warming guru, Professor Ross Garnaut (actually an economist), who groaned that “a warming climate does lead to intensification of these sorts of extreme climatic events that we’ve seen in Queensland”, and “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.

Wrong, Ross. We have actually seen all this before, and worse. Nothing new here at all, expect this shameless scare-mongering.

But the trouble is that we no longer remember our past, and that’s what the warmists are exploiting: our deep forgetting.

Take Channel 10 host George Negus, who told viewers this week that with an “apocalyptic” cyclone and floods in Queensland, and blizzards in the US, our climate had gone “haywire”.

How easily even Negus, who has reported so much history, can forget.

George, you were born in 1942. In that year, Europe had its worst winter of the century, actually a godsend since it stalled Hitler’s invasion of Russia.

That same year a cyclone and huge rain wiped out the rice harvest in Bengal, triggering a famine in which more than a million people died. Drought in China took a million more, while an astonishing month of tornadoes in the United States killed 152 people.

Now that’s a climate gone haywire - or would have seemed then if scary videos of every blizzard, storm, dustbowl, emaciated child or tornado around the world could have been instantly beamed into televisions in every horrified Australian home as they are today.

Incidentally, note also how lethal natural disasters were in those poorer days, when one crop failure could spell death for already beggared millions, and a roar of wind could flatten street after street of gimcrack housing.

Although warmists now sow panic about the natural disasters they claim threaten us, we’ve actually never been better protected from them. See how few Queenslanders were even injured by the “apocalyptic” Cyclone Yasi.

What’s more, despite years of alleged warming by man, our cyclones still aren’t record-breakers and nor are our floods.

So before we all get stampeded by the panic merchants to buy whatever they’re selling - a tax, a carbon credit, ratings, votes, salvation - please consider the following eight inconvenient truths.


THE La Nina change in ocean patterns drove down global temperatures last month to just below the long-term average, according to the satellite measurements taken by America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

LA NINA events have historically brought us more cyclones and rain, and we were already due for more super cyclones anyway, after an unusually quiet period, says cyclone expert Professor Jonathan Nott, of James Cook University.

THE Bureau of Meteorology notes a decline in the frequency of Australian cyclones since 1970, and predicts fewer still, saying “there has been a growing number of studies that indicate a consistent signal of fewer tropical cyclones globally in a warmer climate”.

QUEENSLAND had worse cyclones and floods a century ago, before any possibility of man-made warning. Brisbane’s biggest flood was actually in 1893. Cyclone Yasi’s central pressure of 922hPa is still not as low as the 914hPa of Cyclone Mahina, which killed more than 400 Queenslanders in 1899.

IN 1918, Queensland had two huge cyclones in a single year, each of which killed more people than have died in all Queensland’s natural disasters this year, despite our much greater population. Cyclone Tracy in 1974 destroyed Darwin and killed 71 people.

TOTAL hurricane and cyclone energy around the world has fallen over the past 15 years, according to the data of Dr Ryan Maue of Florida State University.

THERE has been no statistically significant warming of the oceans since 2003, according to a recent study by physicists Robert Knox and David Douglass, of the University of Rochester, published in the International Journal of Geosciences.

WE have had costlier natural disasters than the recent Queensland floods, as measured by insurable losses, including the destruction of Darwin by Cyclone Tracy (1974) and the Newcastle earthquake (1989), according to catastrophe risk scientist Ryan Crompton of Macquarie University.


What does all this tell us?

Only that we’ve seen nothing in Queensland this year that we haven’t seen before, and we’re surviving these disasters better than ever.

So where’s the proof that Yasi shows we’re heating the planet, and are in greater danger than ever?

Why this shameful panic?

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_yasi_proves_only_that_we_panic_too_fast/

To Sum it Up...

Global Warming is a SCAM..!:mad2:

...again please don't take this personally,

Regards,
Jack

[jackovesk]

February 05, 2011 12:00AM

http://ts1.mm.bing.net/images/thumbnail.aspx?q=535719847652&id=015b2c524944f433801d093c45a97766&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.logotypes101.com%2ffiles%2f872%2f8311482ec7875fbf3e37168a9f3d5b43%2fThe_Austral ian_Newspaper.gif

brilliant piece by Heather Brown in 'The Australian'. Make sure you read it all:

I am a Queensland northerner, born and bred, and, for better or for worse, I carry 100 years of history in the blood, 100 years of a family crazy-drunk in love with a wild and unpredictable place.

Every part of the sweat-stained map that makes up north Queensland is part of the flesh: weddings in Cairns, funerals in Townsville, honeymoons on Magnetic Island. Our history is shaped by disaster: fire and flood, cyclone and drought. The north was a place we built with our hands.

My father once told me that you can never expect southerners to fully understand, because they were different from the rest of us.On Wednesday night I sat up following the cyclone, sitting in the cool darkness between the twin stars of television and internet while my husband—who is a southerner—slept peacefully beside me.

It was true: I just hoped my husband didn’t really know how much I wanted to go home that night, to feel the force of my land again, the sweet dense wind, rain hard enough to bruise the flesh. That’s the thing the new settlers never seem to understand about the north. How fierce she is. How utterly unpredictable.

For the past week I have watched the papers and the people make their assumptions and declarations about the north: dangerous and destructive, a place that needs taming, a very bad place to be. And the sweet southern chorus—television, bloggers, texters, tweeters—started to preach from their mantle of safety in the south.

It was hard watching my fellow Australians panic and plead for their lives, one million human ants desperately running in all directions, trying to ensure their survival.

All the while, they kept asking the same question: how can the north do this to us?

And I wanted to tell them, sorry, but that’s how she is: wild and dangerous, destructive, unpredictable, heart-breaking.

And did somebody mention wonderful?

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/tough-breed/story-fn59niix-1225999981105

Right from the horses mouth someone who actually lives in Queensland like me...

Is global warming alarmism really a symptom of an urban elite, conditioned to flick-the-switch instant comfort and grown too disconnected with not only history but the land and its seasons?

[Ulric]

A study on this topic...
http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/toc.php

[jackovesk]

A study on this topic...
http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/toc.php

Ever heard of the "Sun" Ulric?

Not sure what you are trying to say by uploading this link?

[Ulric]

A study on this topic...
http://www.co2science.org/education/reports/prudentpath/toc.php

Ever heard of the "Sun" Ulric?

Not sure what you are trying to say by uploading this link?

I am a solar based long range weather and climate forecaster. Did you read any of the link ?

[Shelltower]

just got a foot of snow overnight.......

[Lord Sidious]

just got a foot of snow overnight.......

And here, it is 1.35am and it is still 26C.
The pc can't take the heat either.

[Odah]

the weather is out of whack.. humans have caused changes that would have happened naturally to happen a bit faster and a bit more rapidly.

the seasons are no longer as predictable and reliable as they have been for thousands of years.. we will have to adjust to that but many people will die before we fully adjust.

This is pushing food prices up around the world . it will not be too long before their is rioting around the world because food cost are more in a day than people can make.

The issue won't be glodal warming or global cooling but global chaos.

[Northern Boy]

humans have caused changes that would have happened naturally to happen a bit faster and a bit more rapidly.


Humans have done no such thing .Corporate greed has caused it if any one. They want you to step up and accept you were responsible for it ................. Many are getting sucked in and in doing so the people are going to end up paying for things that corporations should be doing . End result you are poorer ( lots of that going around) and the Corporate bottom line is fatter

[bluestflame]

yes , manipulating the masses with a well pitched guilt trip ,...even the kids are learning to blame thier parents for "global warming" ...education system propaganda machine

[Lord Sidious]

humans have caused changes that would have happened naturally to happen a bit faster and a bit more rapidly.


Humans have done no such thing .Corporate greed has caused it if any one. They want you to step up and accept you were responsible for it ................. Many are getting sucked in and in doing so the people are going to end up paying for things that corporations should be doing . End result you are poorer ( lots of that going around) and the Corporate bottom line is fatter

You notice it is always the same deal? They manage to point the finger away from themselves onto anyone and anything possible.
Most of, if not all the issues facing this world right now is down to commerce.

[shybastid]

I just bought a franchises for El Polo Chicken and Chipolte because their nice to animals before slaughter. Nicer then KFC and McDonalds anyway.

Franchises are in Iraq,China and Bulgaria.

I get ripped off? You mean it's NOT stable there? I had first dibs.Rats.. I lost my money hedging my bet that people would want to spend money on my product? Where's Hillary...Bomb the bastids. get me my money back! NEW regime.!!

My point?
It's not all about the WAR machine. Capitalism has a place. Just not to PETA.
Errrr Feeding people? Fish Fry's bad? What fish? Catch my own?

Had to rant... Thanks for letting me.

Balance. I wish it were easy.:wacko:

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Wrong thread... see how easily I'm distracted?