Scientists warn of $2000BN solar Katrina

[Whitehaze]

Scientists warn of $2,000bn solar ‘Katrina’
Posted on Sunday, February 20, 2011 6:24:50 PM by BenLurkin

The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn.

Senior officials responsible for policy on solar storms – also known as space weather – in the US, UK and Sweden urged more preparedness at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.

“Predict and prepare should be the watchwords,” agreed Jane Lubchenco, head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “So much more of our technology is vulnerable than it was 10 years ago.”

A solar storm starts with an eruption of super-hot gas travelling out from the sun at speeds of up to 5m miles an hour. Electrically charged particles hit earth’s atmosphere 20 to 30 hours later, causing electromagnetic havoc.

Last week’s solar storm may have been the biggest since 2007, but it was relatively small in historical terms.

It caused some radio communications problems and minor disruption of civil aviation as airlines routed flights away from the polar regions, said Dr Lubchenco.

A more extreme storm can shut down communications satellites for many hours – or even cause permanent damage to their components. On the ground, the intense magnetic fluctuations can induce surges in power lines, leading to grid failures such as the one that blacked out the whole of Quebec in 1989.

The 11-year cycle of solar activity is quite variable and the present one is
running late, with the next maximum expected in 2013.

The peak was not expected to be very strong but that should not cause
complacency, said Tom Bogdan, director of the US Space Weather Prediction
Center.

The most intense solar storm on record, which ruined much of the world's
newly installed telegraph network in 1859, took place during an otherwise
weak cycle. An 1859-type storm today could knock out the world's
information, communications and electricity distribution systems, at a cost
estimated by the US government at $2,000bn.

In terms of terrestrial vulnerability, the biggest change since the 2000
peak is that the world has become more dependent on global positioning
system satellites - and not just for navigation. The world's mobile phone
networks depend on ultra-precise GPS time signals for their co-ordination.





Putting the article together again, as it seems to have been buried. stand by



This is not about the monetary cost.

[Darla Ken Pearce]

While these are legitimate concerns. There is a general misunderstanding about the Solar Winds. They also have the potential to benefit instead of harm and heal instead of destroy. It depends upon your perspective. Science is out of their depth and simply do not understand events happening today. Without a spiritual aspect ~ it is easy to miss what these events really mean.

[Zepheriah]

Science is out of their depth and simply do not understand events happening today. Without a spiritual aspect ~ it is easy to miss what these events really mean.

I'd disagree almost entirely with that statement to be perfectly honest.

You espouse one over the other dismissing science as, forgive my generalising, a rather redundant and pointless endeavour. It wasn't spirituality that gave birth to the combustion engine, personal computer, mobile phone or intenet, or even the many wonders of modern healthcare (yes, including the many bad uses of modern healthcare).


Having said that its not science that gives us a soul, or an existence, or love or compassion or anything else like that. Thats more a spiritual matter and a matter of individual understanding unique to each and everyone of us.

You cannot be "open minded" if you close your mind and dismiss things on principle. I have a great many of beliefs that many off the members of this forum would rail against, also some that others would praise openly.

It's all a matter of balance, and you can't have only one side of a scale and say its even.

Nothing personal to you, more a moan at the nature of the statement.

[ponda]

i agree with Darla.

There's so much more going on all around us that the scientists have absolutely no idea about.

Sure they gave us some tech but where did the 'inspiration' for the discoveries really come from in the first place ?

[Flash]

Thank you for this information. May be earth housing and planting will ge a must by 2014. I decided I will support the thread I deemed important to be read, so that they remain in the main pages and are read by more people. Good threads are, in my opinion, not making it here at avalon anylonger. They get pushed back. Therefore, here I come with my comments.

[Lancelot]

While these are legitimate concerns. There is a general misunderstanding about the Solar Winds. They also have the potential to benefit instead of harm and heal instead of destroy. It depends upon your perspective. Science is out of their depth and simply do not understand events happening today. Without a spiritual aspect ~ it is easy to miss what these events really mean.

I completely agree.
Science does have a very limited persective and the scientists understand very little about this phenomena. They may be able to measure it but they are far from understanding what it is, which gives them as much credibility as anyone commenting on it from a ' spiritual ' or right brained persective. What is needed as always is a balance. For Scientific understanding to progress, scientists need to venture from the limits of their left brained confines to truly understand more about their universe.

Perhaps there is a positive effect of solar winds here on earth- Id like to think so- ultimately, life here comes from and relies on the sun for survival. :)

[Zepheriah]

Just to nd the debate over science/spiritualism, i don't think that thats what Whitehaze wanted.

Lets more discuss what the implications would be of an event of this nature.

[JDM]

I cant see the FT article without registering on the site.

But I have heard similar estimates before. Something to the effect of 200B and 10 years to recover from.

To be something so natural that occurs in cycles, You would think our electric grids would be more prepared. I know they can shut down some satellites and some area electric hubs before an impact, If they have a warning. But I belive most of our electric grids are outdated and would not stand a chance. This would cause mass panic and chaos.

If this happens, all the scientist will say is "we told you so" should have been prepared. Can't blame nobody but yourself for not being prepared.

[bilko]

Thats a huge damage estimate



The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn





http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/67444b2c-3d13-11e0-bbff-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1EZbkFdFa

How do they know the sun is waking up?
Are they saying that the sun is an entity? That they knew it was asleep?
Do they actually understand the sun?
Is this a prediction or do they have information that tells them the sun is now entering a phase of activity?
I'm guessing they do more than they let on which is why they spent millions on the SOHO project.

Sorry but am just waking up myself to this double talk that they confuse us with every day and we take for granted.
These are the lies i pass on to my kids :(, not any more though, not until i find out the truth.
I'm not taking anything they say at face value any more.

[Lancelot]

Just to nd the debate over science/spiritualism, i don't think that thats what Whitehaze wanted.

Lets more discuss what the implications would be of an event of this nature.

The implications of this type of event the way it is presented here are obvious. World devastation.

The anticipated response to this article is also obvoius- Mass Fear

Agreed, the debate is not about science/spiritualism but the actual validity of the information presented in this article.

[chelmostef]

I wondered what that recently released large satellite was for..... It was a EMP weapon!

[Inelia]

From what I understand, this has happened before, multiple times, but at the time we didn't depend so much (as a society), on electronic equipment. As computers and electric grids go down, they will need to be repaired.

If, and when, this happens, there will be a world wide electronic "silence". Apart from those machines which have been built to withstand the damage (surge protectors, automatic switch off buttons etc).

[Whitehaze]

I dislike it when they make you register to read something that should be freely available to all to read. I posted the article in its entiretly. Again, this has nothing to do with $2000bn in damages.........

[JDM]

From what I understand, this has happened before, multiple times, but at the time we didn't depend so much (as a society), on electronic equipment. As computers and electric grids go down, they will need to be repaired.

If, and when, this happens, there will be a world wide electronic "silence". Apart from those machines which have been built to withstand the damage (surge protectors, automatic switch off buttons etc).

Your Correct,

Here is a small snippet from from WIKI on some recent flares HERE (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare).

The most powerful flare of the last 500 years was the first flare to be observed, on September 1, 1859, and was reported by British astronomer Richard Carrington. The event is named the Solar storm of 1859, or the "Carrington event". The flare was visible to a naked-eye, and produced stunning auroras down to tropical latitudes such as Cuba or Hawaii, and set telegraph systems on fire.[7] The flare left a trace in Greenland ice in the form of nitrates and beryllium-10, which allow its strength to be measured today (New Scientist, 2005).

In modern times, the largest solar flare measured with instruments occurred on November 4, 2003 (initially measured at X28 and later upgraded to X45).[8][9] Other large solar flares also occurred on April 2, 2001 (X20), October 28, 2003 (X17), September 7, 2005 (X17) [10] and February 17, 2011.[11] In 1989, during former solar cycle 22 two large flares occurred in March, 6 (X15) (see: March 1989 geomagnetic storm) and August, 16 (X20) causing disruptions in electric grids and computer systems.[12] A complete list is available at http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html

[JDM]

I dislike it when they make you register to read something that should be freely available to all to read. I posted the article in its entiretly. Again, this has nothing to do with $2000bn in damages.........

I agree

Thanks for posting the the article!

There is a lot of good info that comes from the FT. I don't like the fact the make you register either.

And yeah,
I dont think the 200B is the main concern here. As much as the "other" longer lasting and devastating effects.

[slipknotted]

i'll believe it when i see it talk is cheap on fear lately, and most dont have a clue to what's to be, no fear please for me !

[JDM]

no fear please for me !

I agree with you there.
Will this news make me do anything different in my daily life? besides some minor precautionary preparedness, No.

But it is nice to have the information. weather or not we choose to use or act on it or not.

however, it is a known fact that solar flares peek within cycles of the sun. And over the last several decades we have became so reliant and taken our power grids for granite. And if/when it does happen I cant say I wasn't warned or blame someone else.

[Wiley]

Scientists warn of $2,000bn solar ‘Katrina’
Posted on Sunday, February 20, 2011 6:24:50 PM by BenLurkin

The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn.

Senior officials responsible for policy on solar storms – also known as space weather – in the US, UK and Sweden urged more preparedness at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.

“Predict and prepare should be the watchwords,” agreed Jane Lubchenco, head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. “So much more of our technology is vulnerable than it was 10 years ago.”

A solar storm starts with an eruption of super-hot gas travelling out from the sun at speeds of up to 5m miles an hour. Electrically charged particles hit earth’s atmosphere 20 to 30 hours later, causing electromagnetic havoc.

Last week’s solar storm may have been the biggest since 2007, but it was relatively small in historical terms.

It caused some radio communications problems and minor disruption of civil aviation as airlines routed flights away from the polar regions, said Dr Lubchenco.

A more extreme storm can shut down communications satellites for many hours – or even cause permanent damage to their components. On the ground, the intense magnetic fluctuations can induce surges in power lines, leading to grid failures such as the one that blacked out the whole of Quebec in 1989.

The 11-year cycle of solar activity is quite variable and the present one is
running late, with the next maximum expected in 2013.

The peak was not expected to be very strong but that should not cause
complacency, said Tom Bogdan, director of the US Space Weather Prediction
Center.

The most intense solar storm on record, which ruined much of the world's
newly installed telegraph network in 1859, took place during an otherwise
weak cycle. An 1859-type storm today could knock out the world's
information, communications and electricity distribution systems, at a cost
estimated by the US government at $2,000bn.

In terms of terrestrial vulnerability, the biggest change since the 2000
peak is that the world has become more dependent on global positioning
system satellites - and not just for navigation. The world's mobile phone
networks depend on ultra-precise GPS time signals for their co-ordination.





Putting the article together again, as it seems to have been buried. stand by



This is not about the monetary cost.

If the sun got to acting funky on us I think it would cost more than 2 trillion dollars....

[Ulric]

I have spent a lot of time on this data: http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html and there is an increased risk of stronger solar storms around the solar cycle maximum following a long quiet minimum. Whether it happens this cycle depends on this stuff... http://gltrs.grc.nasa.gov/Citations.aspx?id=330

[kersley]

They should freeze Mubarak's 70 billion dollars assets and pay towards the cost.But i guess we the people have to foot the bill..

[rgray222]

The sun let loose its most powerful eruption in more than four years Monday night (Feb. 14), disrupting radio communications in China and generating concern around the world. But it could have been a lot worse, experts say.

Despite its strength, Monday's solar storm was a baby compared to several previous blasts, and it provides just a hint of what the sun is capable of. A true monster storm has the potential to wreak havoc on a global scale, knocking out communications systems, endangering satellites and astronauts and causing perhaps trillions of dollars in damages.

http://www.space.com/images/i/5637/i02/sun-big-solar-flare-100910-02.jpg?1292271242
This snapshot from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a stunning prominence associated with a Sept. 8, 2010 solar flare.
CREDIT: NASA/SDO

The sun's activity cycle is ramping up, so more storms will likely be coming our way over the next few years. The sun has grown more active over the last several months after rousing from a quiet period in its 11-year weather cycle last year.

That's not to say the big one is imminent, experts say — but you never can tell. And analysts warn that with humanity more dependent than ever on the high-tech equipment that can be affected by a solar storm, the stakes are higher than in the past.

"Even if this is a really lackluster solar cycle — as it looks like it's shaping up to be — that doesn't mean you can't have a real bell-ringing event," said Joe Gurman of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, project scientist for the agency's sun-studying STEREO spacecraft.

The roots of solar storms

Solar storm events come in several different flavors.

Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation that send waves of photons streaming toward Earth. The scale measuring their strength has three general categories – Class C, Class M and Class X – with Class X flares being the most powerful.

Monday's Valentine's Day solar flare registered a Class X2.2 on that scale.

To read the full story click here (http://www.space.com/10893-major-solar-storm-earth-risks.html)

[Arrowwind]

They should freeze Mubarak's 70 billion dollars assets and pay towards the cost.But i guess we the people have to foot the bill..

and of course to repair Egypt first and foremost.

[crosby]

i wonder if the tptw will step up to the plate and fork over the money to clean up this mess
corson

[Blue]

Hi,
This is a link to the Independents article on the same theme, sorry if someone has posted this already -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/solar-storm-could-cause-more-damage-than-hurricane-katrina-2221706.html
I wonder has this something to do with all the texts I was sent from abroad last week but never received!

[crownme]

ellu :)

nice to see you dove into this. and keeping a sound mind on the subject.

there is no fear involved, that is the first thing i got to say at first. this stuff happens all the time, no only on this planet, that sun and so on. its natural.

this subject is important for many resons.

first off, if we get blasted and lets say sattelites goes down for a week, that is something to prepare for if we can get the scientific data on it. like michiou kaku is doing http://mkaku.org/

second if we get a blast of heat right now that this planet is alreddy this warm. it could spike a "boil" in the water, make steam, blocking sun, and making electric charges. or it just could rain alot for a few weeks. though this for many ppl sounds like run to the hills and caves scenario it just isnt. if we get a real blast and the Co2 lvls rise plants and photosyntesiss will get a boost.

if anything is to fear its ppl who are so afraid they haf to blind them self for what is going on and blaming that scientist dont understand becouse they lack spirituality. if there is anything to fear in a situation like this its humans. not the sun, not the earth, not your reptilians. humans...

we have som records of what the sun is doing and are close on the mechanics of it. if just alittle bit of it is true then when have something to go on. like the blasts before had no big effect on this planet (or so they say) but now we are more, and there is more tech.

please, i say please dont shut down becouse of fear. dont deny this becouse you dont agree without any facts. dont call this a scare tacktic. please wake up. and please dont hide behind spirituality in a situation of the third dimmension.

thnk ye for starting this thread. i do relly hope humans can come with sites and info on this for all so you can understand it isntead of fearing it.

namaste

[Calz]

IMHO the 900 pound guerilla in the room is the dropping of the magnetoshpere. I will list only one source but there are plenty of sources talking about what is happening NOW.


http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/16dec_giantbreach/


Supposedly we are at the "end of the cycle" and some would suggest several cycles are overlapping.

We do know this from ice core samples ... periodically the protective layer around Earth collapses and there are two elements from space that get mixed into ice layers (implying the magnetosphere has collapsed).

Is that this time???

Who knows ... but if that is the case then even a normal solar maximum cycle could easily take out most electronics that are not protected (which means most everything above ground). Not too many people I know of are putting their electronic gadgets in faraday cages.

Anyway ... as the magnetosphere gets weaker and weaker (regardless of whether or not it drops completely) any type of hit like 1859 means toast for anything electronic.

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what would happen in such a circumstance (at least in developed societies).

[Peace of Mind]

I’m curious to why they said the Sun was waking up too. Could all the spraying of dust metals be their attempts at blocking these rays? Or is the sun sending out some other unknown energy towards us? What are the objects around the sun doing to it? Could the sun be relaying energy from the galactic center? Either way, something unusual is happening and I'm sure they know a lot more about what’s going on then they are letting on. So, naturally there will be a little suspicion...

Peace

[Ba-ba-Ra]

Yes, the sun has an 11-year sun cycle (as the sun's magnetic field flips every 11 yrs).

But also, On July 14, 2010 we learned that our sun is passing through an interstellar energy cloud which excites/energizes the sun. (http://www.solar-storm-warning.com)

However, I agree that we can't separate science and spirituality as the modern world has done by over compartmentalizing everything. Carl Calleman (www.calleman.com) expert on Mayan Calendar has said that The Mayan Calendar is not an astrological calender but one that is depicting the evolution of consciousness and his interpretation was sometime ago that on February 11, 2011 Unity Consciousness would come in.

So how do we know that this interstellar energy cloud that is exciting the sun isn't also exciting humans towards Unity Consciousness?

Something is definitely happening on our planet besides major weather changes. Look at the Middle East. I encourage everyone to stay open, observant, informed, out of fear and pay attention to the signs that you are individually receiving. And keep us all posted.

[greybeard]

Yes Ba-ba-Ra

In my estimate this is the BIG STORY of this generation.

Thanks for the links.

Chris

[Peace of Mind]

[QUOTE=Ba-ba-Ra;154574]So how do we know that this interstellar energy cloud that is exciting the sun isn't also exciting humans towards Unity Consciousness?QUOTE]



With all the talk about the Sun and 2012 here and abroad...I've been thinking along the same wave length...

Peace

[truthseekerdan]

Carl Calleman (www.calleman.com) expert on Mayan Calendar has said that The Mayan Calendar is not an astrological calender but one that is depicting the evolution of consciousness and his interpretation was sometime ago that on February 11, 2011 Unity Consciousness would come in.

Actually will start on March 09, 2011. No offense, just clarifying. :)

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?8689-Understanding-is-everything...-)&p=145353&viewfull=1#post145353

[greybeard]

By coincidence there has been videos on this subject posted recently on The Enlightenment: The ego what is it? How to transcend" thread in the spiritual section
Nassim Haramien thread also.

Chris

[Calz]

By coincidence there has been videos on this subject posted recently on The Enlightenment: The ego what is it? How to transcend" thread in the spiritual section
Nassim Haramien thread also.

Chris

coincidence indeed :)

*** after post edit ***

jeeps ... if I cannot make a two word reply without a typo I guess it is time for beddie bye :)

[DeDukshyn]

Bring it! The faster we destroy this paradigm and build a more transparent and fluid one that actually serves us instead of the other way around, the better! We can always build new "Gadgets" and "conveniences" (anything with an IC will likely be wrecked), but this time we will base it on necessity and free energy not consumption for debt. Cheers to the sun! :tea:

BTW solar energy and cosmic rays are ours to use. We can use them for manifestation .. start practicing ;-)