Sun Stuff: What's up! [Archive] - The Project Avalon Community Forum

Hervé

7th September 2011, 00:40

According to this simulation, the CME will just be glancing Earth around the 10th...

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

Similar data from SpaceWeather,com:

EARTH-DIRECTED FLARE: This morning at 0150 UT, sunspot 1283 produced an M5.3-class (http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html) solar flare. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/06sep11/m5flare_strip.jpg (http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/06sep11/m5flare_1024.jpg)

Because of the sunspot's central location on the solar disk, the eruption was Earth-directed--but is a CME heading our way? Around the time of the explosion, a number of plasma clouds were already billowing away from the sun, adding an element of confusion to the analysis. Tentatively, we expect Earth's magnetic field to receive a glancing blow from a CME on Sept. 8th or 9th. Stay tuned for updates.

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 00:43

SolarSoft says the M5 earlier today and the X2 a few hours ago are Earth bound.

We shall see what happens.

Proton Flux is up so something is already coming in:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Proton.gif

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

(Hey Amzer Zo! Tag! You're it! lol)

InTheBackground

7th September 2011, 01:15

Thanks for the new gathering place in Solar Activity, MorningSong!

Hervé

7th September 2011, 01:30

Event#: 40

EName: gev_20110906_2212

Start: 2011/09/06 22:12:00

Stop: 22:24:00

Peak: 22:16:00

GOES Class: X2.1

Derived Position (SECCHI/EUVI (BEACON) N13W18 (http://www.solarmonitor.org/region.php?date=20110906&region=11283)
or EIT High Cadence Wavelength) ( 1283 )

Flare Locator Image

Difference: AIA20110906_221403_0094.fits - AIA20110906_221203_0094.fits

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20110906_2212.png

Hervé

7th September 2011, 01:41

Very sharp increase:

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/electron/20110907_electron.gif

Hervé

7th September 2011, 01:45

One for Rocky and the whales:

http://lasp.colorado.edu/eve/data/quicklook/latest_3day.png

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 01:55

News from Spaceweather.com:

X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected an X2-class solar flare from sunspot 1283. The explosion, which occured at 2220 UT on Sept. 6th, appears to have hurled a CME toward Earth. This is the second time today that sunspot 1283 has propelled a plasma cloud in our general direction (see also "Earth-directed Flare," below). Stay tuned for estimates of their arrival times. Solar flare alerts

giovonni

7th September 2011, 01:55

Sun Flares 101

From Feb 17, 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwpCW-BReR8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwpCW-BReR8

now you are ready...:cool:

Today Sept. 6 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vSY6hlb8wI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vSY6hlb8wI

subscribe to the Doctor:
http://www.youtube.com/user/drkstrong

Hervé

7th September 2011, 01:55

Getting all these updating graphs on the first pages for quick reference...

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_satenv.gif

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:00

HAARP magnetometer:

http://137.229.36.30/cgi-bin/magnetometer/plotstations.cgi?latest+36H+500+GAK+HDZ

Induction Magnetometer Bx:

http://137.229.36.30/haarp/scmag/latest-t.gif

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:05

High energy protons:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Sis_7d.gif

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 02:07

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 1283
(N14W18) produced an M5/1b flare at 06/0150Z associated with Types

II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed full-halo CME. The CME
had an estimated speed of around 450 km/sec, based upon STEREO-A
COR2 data, with the bulk of the ejecta directed north of the
ecliptic plane. Region 1283 appeared to develop a magnetic delta
configuration in its north-central portion and was classified as an
Eai-type with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Old Region
1286 (N20, L = 310) produced multiple CMEs from beyond the west
limb, none of which were Earth-directed. New Region 1289 (N24E78)
was numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the period (07 - 09 September) with more M-class
flare activity likely from Region 1283.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. Proton flux
enhancements at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV began
around 06/0300Z at geosynchronous orbit in the wake of the M5 flare
mentioned above.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (07 - 09
September). The halo-CME mentioned above is not expected to affect
the field during the forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 112
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/RSGA.txt

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:20

Elevated X-Ray flux:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 02:20

Link to see what the sun did on the 6th....the movie photograms end (and then repeats... slow it down to see better) as the X-flare was getting interesting:

http://spaceweather.gmu.edu/seeds/dailymkmovie.php?cme=20110906&r&cor2=a

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:26

http://www.ips.gov.au/Images/HF%20Systems/Global%20HF/Ionospheric%20Map/WorldIMap0.gif

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Vertical TEC:

http://www.ips.gov.au/Images/Satellite/Total%20Electron%20Content/Regional%20Maps/World_tec.gif

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:36

Ok, I think I got most of all the relevant ones now...

TEC:

http://www.gdgps.net/products/images/tec-map-br.jpg

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 02:36

Auroral Activity has jumped up from Level 3 to Level 7 in just a few short hours.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapNst.gif

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapSst.gif

Click on "Recent Data Plots" to see the chronology.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:44

Flares intensity:

http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/upload_test/files/flares_20110908.png

Hervé

7th September 2011, 02:48

Solar-terrestrial activity:

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.gif

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 02:59

The Cygnet Streamer has been modified since yesterday:

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-02-27+00:49:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-02-27+00:49:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 03:03

Here's a model of the Mag Field Bow Shock:

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=40

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=40

Hervé

7th September 2011, 03:08

Cosmic Rays:

http://helios.izmiran.rssi.ru/cosray/Images/now.gif

Hervé

7th September 2011, 03:17

Solar wind:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/sw_dials.gif

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 03:20

Solar Wind:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_swe_24h.gif

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Ah ha ha AmzerZo! We might make a good team after all!

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 03:33

iRmJ2R3KTIM

StateOfTheHeart

7th September 2011, 03:45

Hervé

7th September 2011, 03:45

Nice video ending!

Thank you for starting this new thread!

And cheers for the teaming... :tea:

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 03:53

Ah ha ha ha ...I stuck this in there somewhere, but you might not have seen it....

Looks like we might make a good team after all!

:fencing::dance3::dance3:

Hervé

7th September 2011, 04:04

I think I did read something in green...

We indeed might make a good team!

:argue: Peace: :kiss:

soulseeker

7th September 2011, 04:05

Hi all , so this flare will only give us a glancing blow. What kind of effects could we possibly see and will any part of the earth be effected more than the others.

All the graphs and images are great , but I just want to get my head around all this.

Thanx

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 04:09

Hervé

7th September 2011, 04:16

I must say: In a somewhat casual manner, I've become very interested in the activity of the Sun and I intuitively know it's very relevant and important to trends in human consciousness and behaviour and events occuring in Nature on Earth; and I'm intrigued and very impressed with all of this data and graphical interpretations... Cosmic rays, solar winds, particle fluxes and magenetic variation etc.; though I must admit I have no idea what any of it means - i.e. what CME's and hightened solar activity translates to, in terms of Earth and human activity...

I'm sure I could spend the rest of my life investigating the intricacies of solar language and our relationship to it, but could anyone offer me some information on the basics of all of this information, or at least point me in the right direction so that I may be able to interpret some of it? (Preferably with some scientific basis)

Thanks.

Hi State!

It all started with this:

Thu, 01 Sep 2011

On September 1, 1859 Richard Carrington observed a solar flare while drawing sunspots. Rather than look at the same drawing of sunspots that we always see, let's look at the magnetometer records released this year by the British Geological Survey (see "Search the Collection" at this link (http://www.bgs.ac.uk/data/Magnetograms/home.html).) Magnetometers measure the strength and direction of the Earth's magnetic field. BGS scanned and released the records from several stations, including the Greenwich station we show here.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sQFfQU-5Dh8/Tl-A7WkpxbI/AAAAAAAAAHM/iYGx2KFoDeI/s200/Picture%2B5.png (http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sQFfQU-5Dh8/Tl-A7WkpxbI/AAAAAAAAAHM/iYGx2KFoDeI/s1600/Picture%2B5.png)

On the top is the day of the flare. In the oval in the upper right is the effect of the solar flare at 11:18 am. (Perhaps you can figure out the times in these plots!) Other than a few small changes, the traces on 9/1/1859 look pretty smooth.

A coronal mass ejection, a large surge of particles from the Sun, often comes with a flare. In the lower plot are the traces from two days later, while the particles ejected from the Sun at the same time as the 9/1/1859 flare are hitting the Earth's magnetosphere. The traces cover the page, with many rapid changes. People started associating flares on the Sun with the changes in the magnetic field being measured by the magnetometers.

This was not just scientific curiosity. Those changes in the magnetic field affected the telegraph system, shocking the operators and allowing them to send messages without batteries while the aurora caused by the solar storm pulsed overhead.

Today we watch the Sun for signs of flares and coronal mass ejections with SDO and other satellites. We monitor the Earth's magnetic field at stations of the BGS and other organizations. Space weather continues to affect our lives when it disrupts radio communications just like it disrupted telegraphs in early September, 1859.

This anniversary was celebrated on The Writer's Almanac (http://writersalmanac.publicradio.org/), along with a poem about watching a James Bond movie.

Happy Birthday, Space Weather!

Here is from the Writer's Almanac:

This was the date, in 1859, of a massive solar superstorm. It's sometimes called the "perfect space storm" or the Carrington Event, after British astronomer Richard Carrington. He reported witnessing a massive white-light solar flare: a bright spot suddenly appearing on the surface of the Sun. At the same time, the Sun produced a coronal mass ejection, or CME: a large eruption of magnetized plasma. CMEs usually take three to four days to reach Earth, but the magnetic burst from the superstorm of 1859 reached us in just under 18 hours.
While Earthlings of 1859 didn't have any cell phones, GPS units, or television signals to worry about, they were growing accustomed to rapid communication over the telegraph, which had been in use for 15 years. Within hours of the CME, telegraph wires began shorting out, starting fires and disrupting communication in North America and Europe. Compasses were useless because the Earth's magnetic field had gone haywire. The northern lights were seen as far south as Cuba and Hawaii, and the southern lights — aurora australis — were seen in Santiago, Chile. People in the northeastern United States could read the newspaper by the light of the aurora, and the Sun itself was twice as bright during the event.
Subsequent solar storms have caused satellites, broadcast stations, and cell phones to malfunction; they've disrupted GPS systems on airplanes and have even knocked out entire power grids; in 1989, a storm much weaker than the superstorm of 1859 brought down the Hydro-Quebec power grid for more than nine hours. While scientists cannot predict the storms with any degree of confidence, some speculate that the Sun is expected to reach a period of peak activity in 2013, and the large flares often follow the peak periods. They're monitoring the Sun's activity closely, because with a little advance warning, power grids could be taken offline and satellites put in "sleep" mode for the duration of the storm, averting a global catastrophe from which it could take a decade and trillions of dollars to recover.

MorningSong

7th September 2011, 04:41

From iNtegrated Space Weather Analysis System:

Event Issue Date: 2011-09-07 01:32:23.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-09-10 04:15:14.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 0 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.6 Re

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/

StateOfTheHeart

7th September 2011, 04:43

@StateOfTheHeart et al:

Here are a few places to start exploring:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_weather

http://srag-nt.jsc.nasa.gov/SpaceRadiation/What/What.cfm

http://www.solarstorms.org/

http://www.hard-core-dx.com/solar/solar.html

http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/space.php

Thanks. I started exploring during my lunch break; will pursue it later on too.

Hi State!

It all started with this:

[Carrington Super Flare]

Yeah I read about that a fair while ago, it was one of the first pieces I read on this topic - it's a very interesting precident, I think. Thanks.

panopticon

7th September 2011, 12:45

G'day All,

I logged in and was going to mention the X2.1 and associated CME's (http://spaceweather.com/) in the old "The Sun Now" sticky thread but found that we've moved here instead.
Thanks everyone for the excellent resources supplied.
The danger to Westernised societies (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/) of a 'Carrington Event (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859)' can not be over emphasised.
That's why I watch (http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html) for CME's (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection) and the Bz index (http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html), so as to be at least prepared.

Avalon is an excellent resource for information sharing and collaboration on ideas (for example earth quakes and X-class/CME correlations).
Keep up the good work!

In the words of Young Mr. Grace (from 'Are You Being Served (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Are_You_Being_Served)'): "You've all done very well."

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sources:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection
http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Are_You_Being_Served

Hervé

7th September 2011, 15:54

Update from Spaceweather.com:

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: Sunspot 1283 is crackling with solar flares. Yesterday, Sept. 6th, the active region produced an M5.3-class (http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html?PHPSESSID=vgm9mndptmu44fiaabc0oeeln4) eruption at 0150 UT followed by a X2.1-class (http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html?PHPSESSID=vgm9mndptmu44fiaabc0oeeln4) event at 2220 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme UV flash from the X-flare:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/07sep11/x2_strip2.jpg (http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/06sep11/x2flash.mov?PHPSESSID=vgm9mndptmu44fiaabc0oeeln4)

The flares produced waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, briefly altering the propagation of low-frequency radio signals around our planet. Moreover, the two eruptions hurled clouds of plasma (CMEs) in our direction. CME impacts, geomagnetic storms and auroras are expected on Sept. 8-10. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts: text (http://spaceweathertext.com/), voice (http://spaceweatherphone.com/).

MorningSong

8th September 2011, 00:15

Another X_flare has occured from Sunspot 1283 on the 7th at 22:39UTC Mag 1.8!

Space Weather Message Code: SUMX01
Serial Number: 72
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 07 2254 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2011 Sep 07 2232 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Sep 07 2238 UTC
End Time: 2011 Sep 07 2244 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Optical Class: 3b
Location: N14W28
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_110907_161925_92621/www/ssw_service_110907_161925_92621_211_193_171_20110907_222512_thumb_258.png

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_110907_161925_92621/www/SSW_cutout_20110907T2225-20110907T2330_AIA_211-193-171_576364.5_ssw_cutout_20110907_222503_AIA_94__20110907_222502_context_0180.gif

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_110907_161925_92621/www/

Hervé

8th September 2011, 00:42

Time to pull out the tinfoil umbrella, it's gona rain compounded particles soon. :rain:

The guys at SolarMonitor haven't updated their site yet :sleep: and this one is not listed.

Operator

8th September 2011, 01:43

Hervé

8th September 2011, 02:00

CME Arrival Time: 2011-09-10 04:15:14.0 GMT

Just as an exercise ... does this mean that the GMT+8 zone (will be around noon there) will
be facing the sun optimally when it arrives ? (I know there is still an +/- 6 hours uncertainty)

I think it will be more like in the evening as 10 pm EST is around 2 am over there (+/- daylight thingy).

See: I posted 10 pm EST and my post time is 2 am GMT.

*Edit*

Oooops, sorry Operator I flunked the "exercise"... didn't pay attention to the + 8... :embarassed:

panopticon

8th September 2011, 06:49

CME Arrival Time: 2011-09-10 04:15:14.0 GMT

Just as an exercise ... does this mean that the GMT+8 zone (will be around noon there) will
be facing the sun optimally when it arrives ? (I know there is still an +/- 6 hours uncertainty)

G'day Operator,

Yes that is correct.
Also for our purposes UT* (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Time) (such as UTC (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time)) is the same as GMT (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenwich_Mean_Time).
Online conversion resources for those interested:
http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/gmt-converter/
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Time
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenwich_Mean_Time
http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/gmt-converter/
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converter.html

Ineffable Hitchhiker

8th September 2011, 06:49

New thread to post info on the sun's activity.

Yay! :)
I really enjoy following your thread.
This is a new area of learning for me and I am grateful for all the information and appreciate all the work from everybody.
Thank you. http://i51.tinypic.com/5vox95.gif

Time to pull out the tinfoil umbrella, it's gona rain compounded particles soon. :rain:

The guys at SolarMonitor haven't updated their site yet :sleep: and this one is not listed.

Hehe, armed and ready. http://i54.tinypic.com/14udt9j.gif

astrid

8th September 2011, 07:02

Just comparing notes here,
Today i 'm really feeling bombed out, all i want to do was sleep.
Not sure it if is the sun or just me, but generally a very low energy day.

MorningSong

8th September 2011, 07:12

From Spaceweather.com:

ANOTHER X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected another strong flare from sunspot 1283. The X1.8-class event at 2238 UT on Sept. 7th produced a bright flash of extreme UV radiation and hurled an inky-dark plume of plasma into space. Click to view the movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/07sep11/inkyblack_strip2.jpg

Turn your cell phone into a field-tested satellite tracker. Works for Android and iPhone.

Satellite flybys

SOLAR RADIO BURSTS: This week's sharp increase in solar activity has turned the sun into a radio transmitter. Bursts of shortwave static are coming from the unstable magnetic canopy of sunspot 1283. Tuesday in New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded some samples at 21 MHz: listen. Radio listeners should remain alert for this kind of solar activity as sunspot 1283 continues to seethe.

ANOTHER X-FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have detected another strong flare from sunspot 1283. The X1.8-class event at 2238 UT on Sept. 7th produced a bright flash of extreme UV radiation and hurled an inky-dark plume of plasma into space. Click to view the movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

This is the third significant flare from sunspot 1283 since Sept. 6th. All three eruptions propelled CMEs in the general direction of Earth. Not one of the CMEs, however, will hit our planet squarely. Glancing blows from the three clouds will commence sometime on Sept. 9th and continue through Sept. 11th, possibly sparking minor geomagnetic storms. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.

X-flares of Solar Cycle 24: There have been only a handful of X-flares since the beginning of new Solar Cycle 24. Here is a complete list so far, all in 2011: Feb. 15 (X2), March 9 (X1), Aug. 9 (X7), Sept. 6 (X2), Sept. 7 (X2). Before these five, the previous X-flare occured on Dec.14, 2006, (X1) during old Solar Cycle 23.

Carolin

8th September 2011, 07:33

panopticon

8th September 2011, 18:15

G'day All,

Sunspot 1283 seems to be almost "pulsing" daily...
1283 M6 class flare at 15:46 UTC.
Solar wind is still low (330km/sec), Kp low (2) and Bz is still "North" (1.3nT).
All clear on the Southern front.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sources:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html
http://spaceweather.com/

TargeT

8th September 2011, 18:19

Just comparing notes here,
Today i 'm really feeling bombed out, all i want to do was sleep.
Not sure it if is the sun or just me, but generally a very low energy day.

I'm feeling the opposite...it's 3:30am and I'm wide awake...grrrrrrrr.

haha, aren't canida and austraila on the opisite sides of the world? (pretty much?)

edit:

looks like "yes"(ish)
http://www.freemaptools.com/tunnel-to-other-side-of-the-earth.htm

Peace4all

8th September 2011, 21:20

Im in CANADA as well and feeling very relaxed/lazy/no energy as well :P
So there goes that theory!

joedjemal

9th September 2011, 09:05

I wonder if this caused the us west coast black out.

panopticon

9th September 2011, 09:25

I wonder if this caused the us west coast black out.

G'day joedjemal,

I don't think it did.
Kp has been low (1).
Bz still "North" (means less likelihood of CME getting through).
Solar wind low (305Km/sec).

I don't reckon this series are a threat as they are reported to be "glancing" the Earth.

Opinions anyone?

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Operator

9th September 2011, 11:59

I wonder if this caused the us west coast black out.

Same thought here ... I additionally wonder if all the chemtrailing changed our atmosphere in such a way
that via conductivity or maybe reflection the arrival of a CME could end up on all kind of unexpected places.

P.S I also realize it probably did not arrive yet

MorningSong

9th September 2011, 12:57

As you can see here, a Geomagnetic Pulse was registered at 12:43 UTC:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 129
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 09 1243 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Sep 09 1243 UTC
Deviation: 16 nT
Station: Boulder

And another:

Space Weather Message Code: SUMSUD
Serial Number: 130
Issue Time: 2011 Sep 09 1257 UTC

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2011 Sep 09 1250 UTC
Deviation: 28 nT
Station: Boulder

Comment: This was the second of two Sudden Impulses observed.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20110909125411.jpg

By and Bz have turned negative....

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

And..Solarsoft says there was an M-class flare this morning around 6:00 UTC. There has been another M-class flare....but it isn't up on the graphs yet.

panopticon

9th September 2011, 14:48

From Ionospheric Prediction Service Australia:

_________________________________________________

Geomagnetic Warning

Last updated 09 Sep 2011 14:00 UT
SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 11/16
ISSUED AT 06/0551Z SEPTEMBER 2011
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 08-09 SEPTEMBER 2011
_________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
08 Sep: Active to Minor Storm periods expected from early in UT day.
09 Sep: Initially Active, declining to Unsettled conditions.

_________________________________________________

Geomagnetic Alert

Last updated 09 Sep 2011 14:25 UT
SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE ALERT
ISSUED AT 1425 UT ON 09 SEP 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

MINOR GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IN PROGRESS (K OF 5 REACHED)
PRELIMINARY AUSTRALIAN REGION K INDICES FOR 09 09 11: 1211 5---

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sources:
http://www.ips.gov.au

Sidney

9th September 2011, 15:24

post deleted link didnt work

Sidney

9th September 2011, 15:31

if you look at the lasco 2 movie, it looks to me like this morning around midnight or so (central) there may have been another X.

Operator

9th September 2011, 15:56

TargeT

9th September 2011, 18:07

I wonder if this caused the us west coast black out.

shouldn't have been strong enough.. but who knows?

Hervé

9th September 2011, 18:31

Today's flares:

http://www.tesis.lebedev.ru/en/upload_test/files/flares_20110909.png

Hervé

9th September 2011, 18:36

Summary plots indicating if flares are Earth bound (2sd graph from top):

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/summary_plot_extmag.png

Too bad, cannot read anything on it...

Here is the site where to see it full scale:

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

TargeT

9th September 2011, 21:52

Gonna be a beautiful night in my neck of the woods ;)

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/sites/www.gi.alaska.edu/modules/local/auroraforecast/images/Alaska_5.png

Forecast: Auroral activity will be high. Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Barrow to Bethel, Dillingham and Ketchikan, and visible low on the horizon from King Salmon.

Forecaster Comments: The effects of the solar events of the last days have reached Earth and a large magnetic storm is in progress. Check the short-term auroral forecast for your local activity.

Forecasted by Charles Deehr
Time of Prediction: Friday, September 9

Print Forecast

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast/

Hervé

10th September 2011, 00:49

Latest from Spaceweather.com:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong geomagnetic storm (Kp=7) is in progress (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html) following the impact of a CME around 1130 UT on Sept. 9th. This could be the first of several hits from a series of CMEs expected to reach Earth during the weekend. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras (http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01sep11.htm?PHPSESSID=lib75jsf5ke9tp7u4slr7s5e36) after nightfall. Aurora alerts: text (http://spaceweathertext.com/), voice (http://spaceweatherphone.com/).

Update: Electrical ground currents caused by the storm have been detected in Norway (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Rob-Stammes-Shockwave-sept.09-2011_1315582815.jpg).

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: Sunspot 1283 is producing flares so intense they are visible through solar telescopes in backyards 93 million miles away. Amateur astronomer Andy Devey photographed this one, and M6-class (http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html?PHPSESSID=lib75jsf5ke9tp7u4slr7s5e36) eruption, from Barnsley UK on Sept. 8th:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/08sep11/m6_strip2.jpg (http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/08sep11/Andy-Devey1.gif?PHPSESSID=lib75jsf5ke9tp7u4slr7s5e36)

The magnetic canopy of sunspot 1283 has an unstable "beta-gamma-delta" configuration tthat harbors energy for more powerful eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-flares and a 25% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours. Solar flare alerts: text (http://spaceweathertext.com/), voice (http://spaceweatherphone.com/).

more images: from Bob Yoesle (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Bob-Yoesle-AR-1283-Flare_1315384045.jpg) of Goldendale, Washington; from Sergio Castillo (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Sergio-Castillo-DSC05992_1315447062.jpg) of Inglewood, California; from Monty Leventhal OAM (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Monty-Leventhal-OAM-Dfgram110906ML_1315369421.jpg) of Sydney, Australia; from James Kevin Ty (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=James-Kevin-Ty-110908_074700-ab-final_data_1315468861.jpg) of Manila, Philippines; from Alcaria Rego (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Alcaria-Rego-sol-set7-11_1315391982.jpg) of Almada, Portugal

MERCURY-DIRECTED CME: On Sept 8th around 2300 UT, the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft detected a significant CME emerging from the farside of the sun. Earth is not in the line of fire, but the planet Mercury is. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab (http://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/index.cfm?fuseAction=home.main&&navOrgCode=674) estimate that the cloud will reach the innermost planet on Sept. 9th at 12:00 UT (plus minus 7 hours). Click to view a movie of their CME model:

http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/09sep11/mercurydirected_strip2.jpg (http://www.spaceweather.com/images2011/09sep11/mercurydirected.gif?PHPSESSID=lib75jsf5ke9tp7u4slr7s5e36)

NASA's MESSENGER spacecraft is in orbit around Mercury, so it will have a front row seat for the impact. Researchers are keen to learn how Mercury's magnetosphere responds to CMEs. In particular, they wonder if CMEs can overpower Mercury's magnetic field and sputter atoms right off the planet's surface. Thanks to the Goddard forecast, MESSENGER's controllers know the CME is coming, and they can prepare to observe the impact.

Interplanetary space weather forecasting is a new thing. It became possible in 2010-2011 when NASA and ESA spacecraft surrounded the sun. Working together, SOHO, the Solar Dynamics Observatory, STEREO-A and STEREO-B now have the entire star under surveillance. CMEs can be tracked no matter where they go, which means space weather isn't just for Earth anymore.

That last sentence: "CMEs can be tracked no matter where they go, which means space weather isn't just for Earth anymore." Tiens, tiens... wonder who else could benefit from some spaceweather data... moreover, where would those benefiting from it would be located or roaming around... particularly, whose space fleet? I mean, beside the known satellites?

Hervé

10th September 2011, 01:30

I wonder if this caused the us west coast black out.

Hi Joe!

This should give you the definite answer:

Rob Stammes

Image taken:
Sep. 9, 2011

Location:
Instrument room polarlightcenter Lofoten Norway.
Details:
Today. sept.09 2011 at 12.45 UTC the first CME arrived as a magnetic shockwave on my instruments.There is also an effect in signal strength from my vlf receivers,coming through electrons in the solarwind cloud.The magnetic field is unstable at the moment,it means a big change for auroras coming night.

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/r/Rob-Stammes-Shockwave-sept.09-2011_1315582815_med.jpg (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/r/Rob-Stammes-Shockwave-sept.09-2011_1315582815.jpg?PHPSESSID=i2n70upilr11kcqmf909aibv23)

Of note, that's ~7 hours prior to the 6.7 BC earthquake.

9852
USA_Oregon station

Hervé

10th September 2011, 01:51

That's also when HAARP-gakona started to go berzerk:

9851

Ineffable Hitchhiker

10th September 2011, 07:31

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong geomagnetic storm (Kp=7) is in progress following the impact of a CME around 1130 UT on Sept. 9th.
This could be the first of several hits from a series of CMEs expected to reach Earth during the weekend.
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after nightfall

WrSP-TmKCdc

OMy34zQy-BE

MorningSong

10th September 2011, 08:04

Well, well, well.... we just had another M1.1 Flare starting at 7:18 UTC and ending at 7:40 UTC from sunspot 1283.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

http://www.solarmonitor.org/data/20110910/pngs/saia/saia_00171_ar_11283_20110910_065000.png

Because the sunspot is farther out on the western limb, it should have only a glancing blow to Earth.

Hervé

10th September 2011, 21:25

Geomagnetic storm first hit:

FIRST STRIKE: The first of several CMEs en route to Earth struck our planet's magnetic field on Sept. 9th around 1130UT. The impact sparked a strong (Kp=7) geomagnetic storm, which is only now subsiding (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html). Last night Northern Lights were spotted in the United States as far south as Washington (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Nathan-Biletnikoff-Aurora-from-Redoubt-090911-reduced_1315639486.jpg), Michigan (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Shawn-Malone-IMG_5991_1315632119.jpg), Vermont (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Gregory-Carter-Warren-Northern-Lights_0034_1315669819.jpg), Montana (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Joseph-Shaw-PIC_2480_33p_1315627449.jpg), Maine (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=John-Stetson-aurora_090911_Sebago-Lake_864_1315660705.jpg) and North Dakota (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Jerry-Kram-Aurora0001_1315636955.jpg). More geomagnetic activity could be in the offing as one or two more CMEs approach. Stay tuned.

MorningSong

13th September 2011, 13:29

For the past 3 days , the sun has been busy sending out 6 C-class CME flares and one B-class flare on the 11th, 7 C-class flares on the 12th, and so far today, only 1 C-class Flare.

Sun spot region 1283 is moving west off the Earth-facing side of the sun while new sunspot 1295 coming over the eastern edge will soon be taking up the spotlight facing Earth.

The Proton flux has normalized after last weeks M-and X-class flares, but the Electron Flux and X-ray flux remains unstable and high.

Solar wind flowing from a Coronal Hole has been reaching Earth with relatively high velocities, around 600km/sec and has produced Auroral activity to reach level 10 several times during this timeframe, demonstrating the fluxes with the typical lightshows at much lower latitues in both hemispheres.

From Spaceweather.com:

AURORA WATCH: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight. A solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field and causing intermittent geomagnetic storms around the poles. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: New sunspot AR1295 is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb and crackling with solar flares. The strongest so far, a C9.9-category blast, did something remarkable. Click on the arrow to watch an extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/13sep11/brokenloop_strip.jpg

n the movie, the underlying explosion (marked by the flash of extreme UV radiation) hurls material upward. The ejecta crashes into a loop of magnetism above the sunspot, stretching the loop until the material breaks free. Coronagraph images from the STEREO-A spacecraft confirm that a cloud of plasma (a CME) left the scene.

This sunspot will not turn toward Earth for several days. Until then, CMEs leaving AR1295 should continue to miss our planet.

Sidney

13th September 2011, 18:23

9897

time stamp roughly 2011-09-13 14:00

I think the sun may be PMS ing!! :flame:

MorningSong

13th September 2011, 19:01

That's funny, starchild111!

That is probably a final farewell blast from 1283 from the back side of the sun now.... a C2.7 Flare according to Solarsoft:

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20110913_1203.html

MorningSong

13th September 2011, 19:16

From spaceweather.com:

SUNDIVING COMET: A comet is diving into the sun today. Just discovered by comet hunters Michal Kusiak of Poland and Sergei Schmalz of Germany, the icy visitor from the outer solar system is expected to brighten to first magnitude before it disintegrates on Sept. 14th. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory is monitoring the comet's death plunge:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/13sep11/finder_768.jpg?PHPSESSID=62q0a09tnmqtvf72ovs1t24vc6

MorningSong

14th September 2011, 18:32

Once upon a flare.....

A strong CME... happened today but I have not found much data on it except for the cygnet Streamer model:

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-02-27+00:49:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

and a CME allert at Integrated Weather System:

Event Issue Date: 2011-09-14 14:50:05.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-09-17 04:38:03.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 13 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.6 Re
Sat, 17 Sep 2011 04:38:03 GMT

to be continued....

MorningSong

15th September 2011, 11:44

Although this is barcaroller's EQ Watch, it explains a lot of sun stuff as well as the CME allert for the 17th.

Y3Dx3xMkvLE

MorningSong

15th September 2011, 22:15

Finally spaceweather.com has this:

INCOMING CME: Yesterday, Sept. 14th, an eruption near sunspot 1289 hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab expect the cloud to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on Sept 17th around 04:30 UT. High-latitude magnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives.

And this on the space diving comet:

SUNDIVING COMET: Note to comets: Stay away from the sun. On Sept. 14th, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) watched what happened when one got too close. Click on the arrow to play a 6-hour time lapse movie:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/15sep11/onelesscomet_strip2.jpg

One icy comet went in, none came out. Discovered on Sept. 13th by Michal Kusiak of Poland and Sergei Schmalz of Germany, the doomed comet was a member of the Kreutz family. Kreutz sungrazers are fragments from the breakup of a single giant comet many centuries ago. They get their name from 19th century German astronomer Heinrich Kreutz, who studied them in detail. Several Kreutz fragments pass by the sun and disintegrate every day. Most, measuring less than a few meters across, are too small to see, but occasionally a big fragment like this one attracts attention.

Sidney

16th September 2011, 01:38

I wonder if this has anything to do with the bombardment of chemtrails we have experienced the last day and a half. Just disgusting.

Sidney

16th September 2011, 01:43

panopticon

16th September 2011, 14:54

Can anyone explain to me when you are looking at the lasco movies of the sun, how do you know which cme's are headint to earth, is it always around the 4 oclock position, or does it change day by day. I have gotten good at spotting the flares and cme's but im not sure what position the earth is at any given time. Thank you in advance for any information you could offer in this area.

G'day Starchild111,

LASCO (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LASCO_Large_Angle_and_Spectrometric_Coronagraph) is an instrument on SOHO (http://soho.esac.esa.int/about/instruments.html) and SOHO (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_and_Heliospheric_Observatory) is positioned between the Earth and the Sun (http://soho.esac.esa.int/about/orbit.html).
This would mean, some one correct me please if I'm wrong, that a CME heading towards Earth would be partially obscured by the (ominously named) occulter disk (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occulting_disk).

So SOHO moves with the Earth and STEREO (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEREO) moves ahead and behind in the same plane. STEREO A (http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml) moves ahead of us (just a bit more than 90 degrees at the moment) and STEREO B (http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml) follows us (again by a bit more than 90 degrees at the moment).
The distance from Earth lengthens (http://stereo.jhuapl.edu/mission/overview/missionDesign.php) as the STEREO mission progresses.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sources and Further Reading:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LASCO_Large_Angle_and_Spectrometric_Coronagraph
http://soho.esac.esa.int/about/instruments.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_and_Heliospheric_Observatory
http://soho.esac.esa.int/about/orbit.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occulting_disk
http://www.spaceweather.sflorg.com/current/lasco_c3.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STEREO
http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml
http://stereo.jhuapl.edu/mission/overview/missionDesign.php
http://star.mpae.gwdg.de/
http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/

Sidney

16th September 2011, 15:35

Thank You panoptigon. So the earthbound flares would be shooting out from the center towards us which is partially blocked.

Sidney

16th September 2011, 15:47

panopticon

17th September 2011, 03:51

Ok so I just plugged in 2011-09-15 thru 2011-09-16 on LASCO 2, at approximately 07:00 the 16th (today) it jumps to 14:00, so it appears there is 6 to 7 hours of missing footage..Is this normal, or are they again hiding something?

G'day Starchild111,

I am not having this problem.
Is this the address you used to access the image:
http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/soho_movie_theater

Maybe there was a back-up during that period which is being gradually caught up with.
The LASCO faq (http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/index.php?p=content/faq) might explain it better.
Who knows. Way above my pay grade.
Why not email them (http://soho.esac.esa.int/explore/drsoho.html) and ask?

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sources:
http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/index.php?p=content/faq
http://soho.esac.esa.int/explore/drsoho.html

Sidney

17th September 2011, 21:52

ok, thank ..Me and my suspicious mind . lol

Ineffable Hitchhiker

19th September 2011, 07:42

ItgZEF8uESw

I have subscribed to drkstong´s channel.
His updates are enjoyable and I love his trivia questions.
Here is some info found under the video :-

"For more details go to my channel: www.youtube.com/user/drkstrong?feature=mhee
Where you will find links to earlier editions of "THE SUN TODAY" as well as other solar related videos and a series of quiz questions and answers on global warming (sometimes with tongue firmly planted in cheek!). Enjoy! If you liked this video please vote thumbs up and pass it on to friends and relations who might find it interesting. Subscribe if you want to track daily updates. If there is something you did not like either leave a comment or send me a PM and let me know how I can improve the service. These videos are a hobby for a retired scientist; I receive no funding for them."

Sidney

19th September 2011, 13:23

WHAT THE HECK IS THIS??????????

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/attachment.php?attachmentid=9946&d=1316403494.

you may have to scroll down. this thing looks like winged planet to me, is at the bottom left.

MorningSong

19th September 2011, 13:46

We "oldies" here at Avalon have named it "Santa"..... used to show up a lot in the Lasco picts...haven't seen it in a while.

NO idea what it is, but it isn't the "Winged Planet" as far as I know..... i don't think it is a planet at all.....maybe a "space critter" of some sort.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20110917/20110917_0824_c2_512.jpg

Thanks for posting!

MorningSong

20th September 2011, 12:52

From spaceweather.com:

FOUR CMEs: On Sept. 19th, the STEREO-SOHO fleet of spacecraft surrounding the sun detected six coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Two of the clouds rapidly dissipated. The remaining four, however, are still intact and billowing through the inner solar system. Click to view a movie of their forecasted paths:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/20sep11/4cmes_strip2.jpg

According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the movie, one CME should hit Mercury on Sept. 20th at 05:40 UT while another delivers a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 22th at 23:00 UT. All impact times have an uncertainty of plus or minus 7 hrs.

High-latitude sky watchers (on Earth) should be alert for auroras when the CME arrives.

And this is truely a "Heads UP!" Alert:

RE-ENTRY ALERT: NASA reports that UARS, an atmospheric research satellite the size of a small bus, will re-enter Earth's atmosphere on Sept. 23rd plus or minus one day. The disintegration is expected to produce a fireball that could be visible even in broad daylight. Not all of the spacecraft will burn up in the atmosphere, however; according to a NASA risk assessment, as many as 26 potentially hazardous pieces of debris could be scattered along a ground track some 500 miles long. But where? No one can say. Because of the rapid evolution of UARS's decaying orbit, the location of the debris zone is not yet known. Stay tuned for improved predictions as the moment of re-entry nears.

panopticon

20th September 2011, 13:25

G'day All,

According to iSWA (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html) (one of NASA's really nifty web based toolsets (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/)) a number of small CME's were detected by STEREO on 19-09-2011 at 21:30 UT.
There appears to be a possibility of one glancing the Earth's magnetosphere with an estimated arrival of 21-09-2011 23:00 according to NASA (a day earlier than Spaceweather is saying, reckon someone did a typo).
Estmated Magnetopause standoff distance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetopause): 5.7Re.

Solar Forecast (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5) from IPS Australia (http://www.ips.gov.au) (Last updated 19 Sep 2011 23:30 UT) states that there are no expected risks of increased activity.

The forecast goes on:

COMMENT: There were a number of C-class flares, the largest being
a C6.9 at 1541 UT from region 1301 (N20E63). There were also
a number of CMEs, only one of which appears to have a weak, Earth
directed component, based on the STEREO images. This CME appears
to have originated from region 1301 before 0654 UT and may be
geo-effective around 23 Sep. Solar wind parameters have been
undisturbed over the past 24 hours and are expected to remain
so over the forecast period.

As MorningSong mentioned: Space Weather (http://spaceweather.com/) also reports that one of the CME's may glance the Earth's magnetosphere and the image from Goddard (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20110919_093800_anim.tim-den.gif) shows this [see MorningSong's post above].

Knd Regards,:yo:
Panopticon

Sources:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetopause
http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20110919_093800_anim.tim-den.gif
http://spaceweather.com/

MorningSong

22nd September 2011, 13:06

New arrival and yet unnumbered sunspot on the eastern rim of the Sun sent off an X-class flare, 1.4 mag, this morning around 10:30 UTC. It probably will not be geoeffective.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20110922_1029.png

http://sdoisgo.blogspot.com/2011/09/x-class-flare-from-approaching-active.html

Just one half hour before, sunspot 1295 let off a M-class flare, mag 1.1, as well as a C6.6 at 4:20 UTC. The region numbered N15E88 released a C 8.9 at 9:09 UTC.

Ineffable Hitchhiker

22nd September 2011, 21:06

This is what happens when a geomagnetic storm arrives.

Aurora from space!

During the geomagnetic storm last weekend those lucky enough to be at high latitudes were not the only ones to catch the resulting aurora. Astronauts on the International Space Station got a spectacular view from ABOVE the aurora! This footage was recorded over the southern Indian Ocean over a 23-minute period from 17:22:27 to 17:45:12 GMT on Sept. 17.

-n2myFnE5sA

THE SUN TODAY: 22 September 2011 - MONSTER SPOTS + X FLARE!

LsRU1N9JZm4

panopticon

23rd September 2011, 06:50

G'day All,

Here's the latest info on the other days X 1.4 and associated CME from IPS Oz (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5):

Background X-ray flux remained mostly at low C-class levels. Newly assigned region 1302 (N13E75) produced an M1.1 flare at 1000 UT and an X1.4 flare at 1101 UT. Region 1295 (N23W61) flared at C6.6 level. Region 1302 shows two large spots at this time and is considered to have the potential for further X-class flares. SOHO LASCO, STEREO and SDO images show a strong CME associated with the X flare. This CME is expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed. These parameters are expected to become mildly disturbed later today, becoming disturbed in the latter part of 24 Sep due to the CME reported above, then settling over the 25 Sep.

Space weather (http://spaceweather.com/) is reporting much the same: 'A minor glancing encounter with the outskirts of the CME is, however, possible on Sept. 25th'.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

24th September 2011, 12:39

I always seem to be one step behind the bots, but here goes:

New X-class Mag 1.9 flare this morning around 9:21 UC from sunspot 1302 on the NE limb.

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_110924_044050_71531/www/SSW_cutout_20110924T0921-20110924T1000_AIA_211-193-171_-65319.5_ssw_cutout_20110924_092102_AIA_211__20110924_092100_context_0180.gif

R3 (strong) radiation emission, Type II and Type IV Radio Emission detected, Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected.

The Proton flux >100pfu (S2 level) (into Earth's atmosphere) continues to increase since the X flare on Sept 22nd.

panopticon

25th September 2011, 04:01

G'day All,

Just to add to Morning Songs report.

IPS Oz Space Weather Forecast (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5):

There were a number of flares over the period; most notably an X1.9 at 0940UT, an M7.1 at 1320UT, an M2.8 at1815 UT and an M3.0 at 1921UT (AR 1302(N12E47)), an M3.1 at 18725UT from AR1295 (N24W78) and an M5.8 from new AR1303 (S28W60). LASCO and STEREO images show a weak CME associated with the X1.9 flare and a strong CME associated with the M7.1 flare, which is expected to be geoeffective about 26-27 Sep. Solar wind parameters were undisturbed over the reporting period (the expected disturbance did not occur). Solar wind parameters are expected to become disturbed on 26 Sep. Previous X-flare producing region 1283 is due for return to the north-east limb around 25 Sep.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

25th September 2011, 16:44

As you can see on the 3-day GOES X-ray Flux Monitor, we have had quite a few M-class flares in the past 2 days ( 11 and counting) since the X1.9 on the 24th. Things are really heating up with the new sunspot 1302!

SolarMonitor.org notes that the most likely region to flare is 1302.
Probabiliy: X flares (19%) M flares (50%) C flares (53%)

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif

Here's the latest from spaceweather.com:

STRONG SOLAR ACTIVITY: On Saturday morning, Sept. 24th, behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare--an X1.9-category blast at 0940 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/24sep11/x2_strip2.jpg

The movie also shows a shadowy shock wave racing away from the blast site. This is a sign that the blast produced a coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours); click here for an animated forecast track. Geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives.

SOLAR STATIC: Active sunspot 1302 has turned the sun into a shortwave radio transmitter. Shock waves rippling from the sunspot's exploding magnetic canopy excite plasma oscillations in the sun's atmosphere. The result is bursts of static that may be heard in the loudspeakers of shortwave radios on Earth. Amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded this sample from his backyard observatory in New Mexico on Sept. 24th:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/25sep11/solarstatic_strip2.jpg

"Saturday was a super-strong solar day with near continuous flaring and radio sweeps," says Ashcraft. "The sound file (above) corresponds to an M3 flare at 1918 UTC. It was the strongest radio sweep of the observing day."

"Try listening to the radio bursts in stereo," he advises. "I was recording on two separate radios at 21.1 MHz and 21.9 MHz, and I put each one into its own channel of the audio file. This gives a spatial dimension as the bursts sweep down in frequency."

http://spaceweather.com/

MorningSong

26th September 2011, 14:06

The Mag field looks like it disappeared this morning! Like the tide rushing out to sea before a tsumani....

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20110926063808.jpg

The "glancing blow" predicted from a CME on the 24th has reached Earth today around 12:30 UTC:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20110926120910.jpg

Pressure from the huge wave of solar radiation pushed our magnetosphere (bow shock) well beyond the geosynchronous orbit (where many sats are suspended):

http://pixie.spasci.com/DynMod/

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=40

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20110926122312.jpg

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_1.20110926125813.jpg

That's a huge amount of radiation billowing around our little rock!

MorningSong

26th September 2011, 14:42

Global X-ray flux....watch for auroras!

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png

panopticon

26th September 2011, 14:46

G'day MorningSong,

It's been a pretty impressive week this week as far as the solar flare and cme's go!
The IPS Magnetopause Model (http://www.ips.gov.au/Satellite/3/2) is not as pretty as the others (nor does it have the bells and whistles) but shows the boundary, solar wind speed, bz, standoff distance and geo-syn (with some sats) clearly.
Unfortunately (or is that fortunately) it's java based so I can't embed it here.
It's the second thing I have a look at in the morning (first being their space weather page (http://www.ips.gov.au/Space_Weather)) as it's no non-sense and quick loading.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

26th September 2011, 15:47

Cool! Thank-you, Panopticon! Good deal....

MorningSong

26th September 2011, 18:57

This is a very well done compilation video of the M 7.4 flare on the 24th:

5EhbuY-ctNM

MorningSong

26th September 2011, 20:56

Update on spaceweather.com confirmes my previous posts:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm is in progress following the impact of a coronal mass ejection (CME) at approximately 12:15 UT on Sept. 26th. The Goddard Space Weather Lab reports a "strong compression of Earth's magnetosphere. Simulations indicate that solar wind plasma [has penetrated] close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 13:00UT." Geosynchronous satellites could therefore be directly exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic fields. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for Northern and Southern Lights after nightfall.

Allura

26th September 2011, 21:25

Do you ever watch any of 'solarwatcher' (also known as 'thebarcaroller') on youtube? He does a great job at explaining what's going on with the sun and how it may impact Earth (i.e. earthquakes). Here's one of his video re: the X-class flare on 9/24. He also has a website: www.solarwatcher.net, I've never been to it, but it might be worth a visit. He's great!

xCFk_l0L2x8

Hervé

26th September 2011, 21:59

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) hits Earth's Magnetosphere Today, Causes Ground Currents In Norway (http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=26&month=09&year=2011)

Space Weather
Mon, 26 Sep 2011 10:27 CDT

A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field at approximately 12:15 UT on Sept. 26th. The impact caused significant ground currents (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Rob-Stammes-CME-sept.26--2011_1317044063.jpg) in Norway. Also, the Goddard Space Weather Lab reports a "strong compression of Earth's magnetosphere. Simulations indicate that solar wind plasma [has penetrated] close to geosynchronous orbit starting at 13:00UT." Geosynchronous satellites could therefore be directly exposed to solar wind plasma and magnetic fields.

http://www.sott.net/image/image/s4/82126/large/ff.jpg (http://www.sott.net/image/image/s4/82126/full/ff.jpg)
© Rob Stammes
Sept.26 2011,at 12.36 UTC a magnificent shockwave from a CME arrived in our atmosphere,with an effect on all of my instruments.The shockwave passed the ACE satellite at 11.52 UTC,just 44 minutes earlier.

Stay tuned for updates. Aurora alerts: text (http://spaceweathertext.com/), voice (http://spaceweatherphone.com/).

Ineffable Hitchhiker

26th September 2011, 22:10

THE SUN TODAY: 26 September 2011 - Severe Geomagnetic Storm

baFWRqqTyDc

MorningSong

26th September 2011, 22:44

From Space Weather Advisory Bulletin:

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #11- 4
2011 September 26 at 03:00 p.m. MDT (2011 September 26 2100 UTC)

**** EARLY AUTUMN GEOMAGNETIC STORM ****

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that erupted from NOAA Active Region 1302 on Saturday September 24 in conjunction with an M7 strength solar flare, arrived this morning at 1237 UT (8:37am Eastern Time). It has kicked off moderate (G2) geomagnetic storms for low latitudes, but high latitudes are seeing severe (G4) levels of activity. Aurora watchers in Asia and Europe are most favorably positioned for this event, though it may persist long enough for viewers in North America. The bulk of the CME missed the Earth, meaning the storm intensity and duration are less than what they would have been in the case of a direct hit. Region 1302 remains capable of producing more activity and will be in a favorable position for that activity to have impacts on Earth for the next 3-5 days.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/advisories/bulletins.html

panopticon

27th September 2011, 17:19

G'day All,

The Bz has evened out again as has the solar wind (530km/sec). Kp has also quietened down again:

http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_kp_3d.gif

Not sure how long it's going to remain calm as NASA's iSWA webtool (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/) reports there's another CME passing 28/09 around 5am UT with an estimated magnetopause offset of 6.4Re.

Latest from IPS Oz (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5) on the little blow we're having:

Active region 1302 remains the most significant feature on the solar disk. This region has stretched in the E-W direction and produced an M2 level flare at 26/1446UT. Regions 1303 and 1301 produced C-class flares over the day. Background X-ray flux declined to B-class levels towards the end of the UT day as regions 1295 and 1303 rotate off the visible disk. Solar wind parameters increased significantly after 12 UT following arrival of the CME observed on 24 Sep. Solar wind velocity increased from 350 to 700 km/s over the second half of the UT day. The Bz component of the IMF reached -30nT, but has settled to near-neutral values over the last quarter of the UT day. Expect solar wind parameters to remain disturbed next 1-2 days.

A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1151UT on 26 Sep.

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 26/1140UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

Space weather (http://spaceweather.com/) reports:

SUBSIDING STORM: A severe geomagnetic storm (Kp=7-8) that began yesterday when a CME hit Earth's magnetic field is subsiding. At the peak of the disturbance, auroras were sighted around both poles and in more than five US states including Michigan, New York, South Dakota, Maine, and Minnesota...

BIG SUNSPOT: The source of all this solar and geomagnetic activity is sunspot AR1302. Measuring more than 150,000 km from end to end, the sprawling active region is visible even without a solar telescope. Fabiano Belisário Diniz saw it plainly in last night's sunset from Curitiba, Brazil...
The sunspot has quieted down since unleashing dual X-flares on Sept. 22nd and 24th. Nevertheless, NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours. Any such eruptions would be Earth-directed as the sunspot crosses the center of the solar disk.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Black Panther

27th September 2011, 17:54

Super Sun Blast Fears Put Russian Nuke Plants In Lockdown

A frightening report circulating in the Kremlin today (september 25th) prepared by the Federal Atomic Energy Agency (FAAE) states that “emergency notices” have gone out to all of Russia’s nuclear power plants warning them that a potential “blast” from our Sun could cause “massive power blackouts” and could even result in “spontaneous atomic explosions.” ...

... the Federal Security Service (FSB) addendum to this FAAE report suggesting that the “takeout” of two of America’s top planetary scientists this past month are related and show the ends to which the US is going to in their effort to keep the truth hidden....

http://www.eutimes.net/2011/09/super-sun-blast-fears-put-russian-nuke-plants-in-lockdown/

ViralSpiral

27th September 2011, 18:06

Sunspot's Solar Flares Could Potentially Blow Every Electrical Circuit on Earth (http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/220742/20110927/sunspot-solar-flar-iphone-nasa-uk-northern-lights-astronomy-ian-griffin-active-region-1302-the-sun-x.htm)

another article with video (http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/220277/20110926/solare-flare-2011-auroras-solar-storm-flare-blasts-earth.htm)

MorningSong

27th September 2011, 18:14

ViralSpiral

27th September 2011, 18:21

thats okay
bye
ViRal

MorningSong

27th September 2011, 18:29

Sorry viral.....lol...I wanted to write viRal, but on the edit thing,I couldn't see your nick...so I opted for a lesser choice....sorry! lol

And I'll also explain to viewers that your link is International Bussines Times site...thought it was from EUTimes...my bad...didn't check. Sorry again.

No harm meant.

But seriously, if we can keep this thread for data, I think it would be more useful. Any other interesting articles can be posted in new threads. Than would avoid any problems with getting off topic if a good debate should get going over an article in a post.....

What do you all say?

Allura

27th September 2011, 18:53

Thanks to SolarWatcher, who always puts the information together nicely!

W3VQTw6o-Jg

Black Panther

27th September 2011, 22:40

Black Panther,

uhummmm...not sure this source of info is valid. Would be better to convalidate with multiple sources, IMO. I think this type of post needs it's own thread, personally.

Let's try to stick to actual scientific data, if that's ok?

Your thread, you're the boss ;)

We never know for sure what's valid or not. That's why we are looking for the truth.

There are various threads about the sun. And because this thread calls 'Sun Stuff' I placed it here.

MorningSong

27th September 2011, 22:47

No boss but my own, my friend. I just thought that keeping a data oriented thread tidy was kinda important.

We all thank you for contributing in the search for truth... the more the heads, the better.

panopticon

28th September 2011, 05:12

G'day All,

Solar conditions and forecast (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5) from IPS Oz:

Solar activity declined to low levels on 27 Sep. A disappearing solar filament was observed in AR1305 (N13E45) at 0125UT. A C6.4 level flare was observed in AR1302 (N13E10) at 12058UT. Type IV radio bursts and noise continua were observed throughout the UT day. North- and East-directed CME's were observed early in the UT day. These are not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed declined steadily from 650 to 550 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT. There is a chance of isolated M to X class flares from AR1302.

and their Geostat alert (http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/2/3):

IPS GEOSTAT ALERT NUMBER 123: STATUS 5
CME OBSERVED
GEOMAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE WITHIN 2-4 DAYS
ISSUED AT 2115 UT ON 26 Sep 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

So everything has returned to peace and quiet following the last weeks events.
As AR1302 wheels around to face the Earth who knows if we'll have another X class, as Vivek (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?p=319704#post319704) pointed out Bradbury (http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html) was reporting a 63% likelihood (this has been lowered to 50% since then).

There is still the incoming CME NASA forecast for 5am UT today (which is about now) so let's see what happens. I got my tin foil hat ready ta go!

Might make for some pretty aurora's at the very least.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

28th September 2011, 17:32

New flares from 1302 today: 2 B- 3 C-and 1 M-classers:

C9.3 at 12:38UTC then M1.9 at 13:30UTC were the strongest. Because the sunspot is nearly dead center the Earth-facing side of the Sun, they are most likely Earth-bound.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20110928_1226.png

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20110928_1324.png

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

the trojan

28th September 2011, 18:20

massive heatwave,lots of sweating in scotland

Sidney

29th September 2011, 02:36

Both Lasco 2 and 3 have over 10 hours missing footage from today. Skips from 10:38 (give or take a few) to 21:something. HMMM Wonder whats up with that.

panopticon

30th September 2011, 14:34

G'day All,

All's quietish on the sun front.
Space weather (http://spaceweather.com/) is reporting that AR1302 still has a chance of flares and that a CME is heading towards Mercury with an estimated impact date of the 1st October. Check it out here: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20110930_012400_anim.tim-den.gif

Nothing heading this way.
KP = 0, solar wind ~ 450 km/sec and everything else is similar.

@ starchild111, Thanks for pointing out the lack of imagery from Lasco 2 & 3 on the 27th. Did you email NASA to ask why? I had a gitsy and there's no keyholes (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/soc/keyholes.txt) (so... WTF is a keyhole (http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2004_01_04/)) or anything else I could see scheduled so might have been routine maintenance or maybe...

a Goa'uld mother ship flew past and they decided it was best to not release those images...
a saucer pilot (or is that jockey?) brown eyed SOHO and there's all sorts of trouble behind the scenes...
Crichton was caught entering a worm hole by Scorpius (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farscape)...
Dr Who chased the evil Santa away and we are all safe again...

Who knows (pun intended). :noidea:

IPS Oz also noticed that there was incomplete Lasco imagery in their 29 September Solar Conditions Summary/Forecast (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5):

Active Region 1302 (N13W16) produced a long-duration C2 level flare at 1247UT. There was an associated Type II radio sweep with estimated shock speed 608km/s. This event may become geoeffective. LASCO C3 imagery was incomplete for the day but showed a slow semi-halo CME after 20UT. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at the ACE satellite platform at about 00UT. Solar wind speed stepped from 450 to 550 km/s, then declined gradually over the UT day back to 450 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF sustained -10nT for about 2 hours following the shock, then was mostly neutral to slightly positive for the remainder of the UT day. Region 1302 maintains potential for isolated M to X class flares.
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0024UT on 29 Sep.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon.

Sources:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20110930_012400_anim.tim-den.gif
http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/soc/keyholes.txt
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/hotshots/2004_01_04/
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5

Sidney

30th September 2011, 17:57

panopticon

1st October 2011, 02:35

There is so much covering up, and dis-infoing out there anymore, and if data is missing, I automatically raise an eyebrow or two. When you look at that 10+ hour jump, as the imagery resumes at 20 something hours, the sun appears (to me) to be recovering from some sort of cme or flare. That said, I am only an amateur at this, but there looks to be alot if energy exiting the sun as the video resumes after the 10 hour lapse. again, NASA = Never A Straight Answer :confused:

G'day starchild111,

I hope you weren't offended by my joking. It wasn't intended to be offensive.
Your observation regards the 10 hours of missing Lasco imagery is well worth reporting and your observation of CME/Flare activity around the 20 hour mark, when the imagery returns, is also mentioned in the IPS Summary I quoted.

So, good catch and keep at it!

I'm no scientist either, so welcome to the club.
I just try to supply information (and point to resources that I've learnt from) if someone asks about something I've already researched. That way I can save them time and point out information that they might interpret differently to me. This approach adds to the collective understanding of those researching and is one reason I participate at Avalon.

This is a very dry subject (pun intended) and sometimes I try to lighten the mood (pun intended again) as I reckon it is important that people are aware of the potential danger solar weather represents to our westernised civilisation.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sidney

1st October 2011, 03:22

Ineffable Hitchhiker

2nd October 2011, 04:54

THE SUN TODAY: 1 October 2011 - FLARES, CMEs, & A COMET!

Nxq0Luq5mes

MorningSong

2nd October 2011, 22:47

Lasco2 and Lasco3 are blocked at September 30, so I am curious as to what's up with the sun. I do know that there was a sun diving comet on October 1st, and that usually causes fireworks up there... and sometimes EQs down here. A few M-class flares have occured from sunspot 305 which is dead center....anything it produces is Earth-bound.

Here are a couple of vids found on TY that I cannot verify:

dOOEaVwObgU

6nbTfo0s5ik

Another:

bZUhbLRVzUo

Sidney

3rd October 2011, 00:09

And another 13+ hours of missing time immediately after the x flare that followed the object imploding into the sun. Getting tired of the censorship. Heavy chemtrails today. Gee thats a surprise.

panopticon

3rd October 2011, 02:05

G'day All,

Here's IPS Oz (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5)'s latest solar forecast:

Last updated 02 Oct 2011 23:40 UT

Active Region 1305 (N12W25) produced an M3.9 level flare peaking at 0037UT. STEREO imagery shows a front-side CME first visible after 0134UT. This event appears Earth-directed with an estimated speed of 532km/s. Region 1302 (N16W54) produced an impulsive M1 level flare at 1723UT. A C7 level flare was observed in Culgoora H-Alpha imagery in AR 1305 at 2148UT. There were a few minor C level flares also observed over the UT day.

Solar wind speed declined slowly from 520 to 440 km/s over the UT day.

The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with sustained periods of Southward bias 05-08UT and 19-21UT.

Solar wind parameters should decline day one as the present weak coronal hole wind stream subsides. Expect possible shock arrivals days two to three following the flare/CME sequences observed Sep 30-Oct 02.

Regions 1302 and 1305 maintain potential for further isolated M to X class flares.

NASA's iSWA (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/) is not reporting a CME arrival over the coming days.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

3rd October 2011, 09:05

From Spaceweather.com:

COMET AND CME: A comet discovered by amateur astronomers on Friday, Sept. 30th, disintegrated in spectacular fashion the very next day when it plunged into the sun. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the comet's last hours. The end was punctuated by an unexpected explosion; click on the image to set the scene in motion:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/03oct11/beforeandafter_strip2.jpg

Watch the movie again. The timing of the CME so soon after the comet dove into the sun suggests a link. But what? There is no known mechanism for comets to trigger solar explosions. Before 2011 most solar physicists would have discounted the events of Oct. 1st as pure coincidence--and pure coincidence is still the most likely explanation. Earlier this year, however, the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) watched another sungrazer disintegrate in the sun's atmosphere. On July 5, 2011, the unnamed comet appeared to interact with plasma and magnetic fields in its surroundings as it fell apart. Could a puny comet cause a magnetic instability that might propagate and blossom into a impressive CME? The question is not so crazy as it once seemed to be.

Oh, but we Avalonians already know the answers to their silly questions, don't we?

Rocky_Shorz

4th October 2011, 00:28

Hervé

4th October 2011, 00:45

[...]
....
able to read, shut off pop up notify...

test post

OMG! Long time no see... welcome back!

panopticon

4th October 2011, 04:26

G'day All,

IPS Oz Updates reporting incoming CME with minor disturbances.

Geomagnetic Warning (http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/2/1):

Last updated 04 Oct 2011 03:00 UT
SUBJ: IPS GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 11/21
ISSUED AT 03/2351Z OCTOBER 2011
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION
FROM 05-06 OCTOBER 2011

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
05 Oct: Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.
06 Oct: Unsettled to active, minor storm periods possible.

Geostat alert (http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/2/3):

Last updated 03 Oct 2011 23:52 UT
IPS GEOSTAT ALERT NUMBER 124: STATUS 5
CME OBSERVED
GEOMAGNETIC STORM POSSIBLE WITHIN 2-4 DAYS
ISSUED AT 2352 UT ON 03 Oct 2011 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

Nasa's iSWA's CME arrival prediction tool has finally caught up with IPS Oz and issued what looks like alerts for three different CME's, however on closer inspection two seem to possibly be the same one (arrival times separated by three minutes) and the other maybe an earlier estimate. Either that or they're really close together.

So from NASA iSWA (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/):

Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 16:05:27.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 10:48:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 15 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re

Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 15:39:41.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 11:23:07.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 14 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re

Event Issue Date: 2011-10-03 16:44:22.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-10-05 11:23:04.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 14 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.5 Re

Just seems like NASA can't get it together, must have been a big weekend!
For IPS Oz just another day...

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

4th October 2011, 16:17

There has been a huge flare today... I have no data yet:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111004/20111004_1336_c2_512.jpg

Sidney

4th October 2011, 20:43

Holy crfapp.. That is big!!

Ineffable Hitchhiker

5th October 2011, 09:12

Wow MorningSong. That solar flare shot is amazing!

Earth Directed CME / Solar Watch Oct 5, 2011

9jG5svRCsaA

Pete

5th October 2011, 10:17

Hi I 've been interested in the "what's up with the sun thread" and i have read through the last page of this one and can see that there is a high level of specialism here. Therefore, you may be just the people to answer the following question as my level of technical understanding on how to access the data is next to nothing.

The sun and moon seem to transiting lower for this time of year, there also is a discernible movement of magnetic north to the east. can you compare current solar and lunar transits with previous years or is this a completely normal state of affairs? and one last question why did we have a very close transit of the moon earlier this year?

Kindred

5th October 2011, 12:27

Of note is that Earth's magnetic field has shown a tremendous uptick of late, and in particular, just in the last number of hours. This link is for a magnetic field satellite, and it continually updated. Normal Earth magnetic field is around 2 or 3 in the top section of this chart! Note that these levels have been occurring since just before Elenin had it's conjunction, with a huge spike, similar to what is occurring now, during the main conjunction, and it had 'tapered off' for the last week - until Now!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_7d.html

MorningSong

5th October 2011, 15:25

@Pete: Sorry, I can't help you there. I know a lot of people say tht the sun and moon appear to be out of place recently, but I really don't know where to get the info needed to verify this....wish I did.

@Kindred: Today Earth is being buffered by 3 CME's that erupted from the sun on the 3rd. That does effect our magnetosphere, yes. The sun has been very active since just before the dates you mention, so, yes, the levels have been rollercoastering up and down for a while.

From spaceweather.com:

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of minor geomagnetic storms on Oct. 5th and 6th as a series of two to three CMEs sweeps past our planet. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.

And this, too:

FARSIDE CME: Yesterday, October 4th, something exploded on the far side of the sun and propelled a spectacular CME into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud as it emerged from behind the sun's limb:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/05oct11/farsidecme_strip2.jpg

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab have combined observations from SOHO and the twin STEREO spacecraft to calculate the CME's trajectory: It is heading for Mercury. The CME will hit the innermost planet on Oct. 5th around 04:30 UT plus minus 7 hours. Energetic particles accelerated by shock waves at the leading edge of the cloud could also have minor effects on the MESSENGER probe in orbit around Mercury. The CME's forecast track shows that Venus might also receive a blow on Oct. 6th.

Hmmm..... Are we going to loose Mercury and other planets to solar wind erosion? Like the Crop Circle showed in 2008 (dont' remember which one it was)? This was reported the other day:

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?31588-Solar-Wind-Penetrating-Mercury-s-Mag-Field-and....

EDit: Found it:

w_RISeobyNg

MorningSong

6th October 2011, 00:50

OMG! The Mag field is all funked out!

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20111006004701.jpg

markpierre

6th October 2011, 01:03

Thanks you guys, that's really really cool. So what's it all mean? I should stock up on sunscreen?

Hervé

6th October 2011, 01:49

Ineffable Hitchhiker

6th October 2011, 06:53

I woke up feeling out of sorts and have a huge headache this morning.
Looking at that warped magnetic field screen shot explains alot!

G1 Geomagnetic Storm / Magnetosphere Simulation Oct 5, 2011

FBIP5cFsQ1g

Geomagnetic storm explained in WIKI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm)

A geomagnetic storm is caused by a solar wind shock wave and/or cloud of magnetic field which interacts with the Earth's magnetic field. The increase in the solar wind pressure initially compresses the magnetosphere and the solar wind magnetic field will interact with the Earth’s magnetic field and transfer an increased amount of energy into the magnetosphere. Both interactions cause an increase in movement of plasma through the magnetosphere (driven by increased electric fields inside the magnetosphere) and an increase in electric current in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, electric current in the magnetosphere create magnetic force which pushes out the boundary between the magnetosphere and the solar wind. The disturbance in the interplanetary medium which drives the geomagnetic storm may be due to a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) or a high speed stream (co-rotating interaction region or CIR)[1] of the solar wind originating from a region of weak magnetic field on the Sun’s surface. The frequency of geomagnetic storms increases and decreases with the sunspot cycle. CME driven storms are more common during the maximum of the solar cycle and CIR driven storms are more common during the minimum of the solar cycle.

http://i51.tinypic.com/affvqe.jpg
Solar particles interact with earth´s magnetosphere.
Image courtesy WIKIPEDIA

6.10.2011 @ 6:42

http://i52.tinypic.com/s4pe0h.jpg

Even though a G 1 is not a major geomagnetic storm, I think I will don my tinfoil hat today. http://i54.tinypic.com/14udt9j.gif
:becky:

Sidney

6th October 2011, 17:26

For what it's worth, my head hurts too.:lazy2::tea:

panopticon

10th October 2011, 05:05

G'day All,

@ Pete: I have no answers for you on this one either blue. I've heard the stories but have not noticed any differences here in Oz.
@ Amzer zo: Excellent thread link bloke. Thanks I'd missed that one.

Solar activity is low, space weather mild.
Possibility of moderate increase to solar wind over the next few days due to coronal hole.
Otherwise a nice period of calm.

IPS Oz (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5) Latest Solar Forecast:

Last updated 09 Oct 2011 23:31 UT

Solar activity was Low today. One C1.7 flare was observed from region 1314(N26E72) today.

Solar wind speed varied between around 300 km/s and 360 km/s during the UT day today.

The Bz component of the IMF varied between +/-6nT for most parts of the day.

Low levels of solar activity may be expected for the next three days.

Solar wind stream parameters showed slight enhancement due to the anticipated effect of a coronal hole today.
This coronal hole effect may be expected to continue on 10 October.

Don't worry though as Sunspot 11314 (http://www.raben.com/maps/) is on its way around and Bradford (http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html) seems pretty excited about it.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sidney

10th October 2011, 21:04

I have been watching this for a while too and been paying close attention to the sun, and I have noticed that the sun seems liked its much larger than it used to be. If not twice as big, maybe 25 to 50% bigger. I cant figure it out. weird.

MorningSong

15th October 2011, 21:04

Solar Update: Despite the sunspot count (10 right now), solar activity remains relatively low to medium level. Sunspot 1309 has rotated onto the western limb and Sunspot 1315 appears to have faded away. A new region that formed towards the east of sprawling Sunspot group 1319 now looks to be fading as well.

http://solarmonitor.org/data/20111015/pngs/saia/saia_04500_fd_20111015_180008.png

The three largest Sunspot groups are currently 1314, 1316 and 1319. There have been 14 C-class flares in the past 2 days.

There will remain the chance for C-Class flares and a 35% possibility for M-Class events.

Just for you inquisitive minds, here's what happens to the atmosphere when there is a Earth-bound class C5 flare:

9heYQbBZ_xs

panopticon

16th October 2011, 12:48

Just for you inquisitive minds, here's what happens to the atmosphere when there is a Earth-bound class C5 flare.

G'day Morning Song,

Thanks for sharing that video.
It was really interesting to "see" the effect on the atmosphere of such a small flare.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

panopticon

17th October 2011, 12:59

G'day All,

IPS Oz reports minor C-class flares on the 16th (UT) and the likelihood of continued C-class flares with possible M-class over the next few days.

Anyway here's the IPS Oz report (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5):

C-class flare activity was observed during 16 October.
Further C-class flare activity is possible over the next few days with the small chance of M-class flares.
A Type II sweep was observed at 1357UT on 16 October in association with a C1-flare from region 1317. The estimated shock speed from this sweep was 618 km/s. Analysis of STEREO B satellite imagery suggests a very weak CME was observed in the ecliptic plane around the time of this event, however, LASCO C2 imagery suggests CME activity around this time is directed to the west. Further imagery and analysis is required to ascertain the geoeffectiveness of this event, however, any impact is likely to be only weakly geoeffective and anticipated to occur during the latter half of 19 October.

Solar wind declined slowly during 16 October.

Solar wind speeds may increase slightly during the latter half of 19 October under the influence of possible CME effects.

Previously X-flare(s) producing region 1302 is due for return to the north-east limb around 18 Oct. Also, previously M-flare(s) producing region 1305 is due for return to the north-east limb around this date.

Bradford flare monitor (http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html) is not predicting a high likelihood of flare activity at the moment, however spaceweather.com (http://spaceweather.com/) is reporting that NOAA is forecasting a 40% chance of an M-class flare in the next 24 hours. There are no coronal holes facing the Earth either.

NASA is reporting that SOHO is still in its keyhole period (http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/soc/head_calendar.html) (10th October to 23rd) and that a 180 degree roll will be executed on the 20th (UT). So we may experience further problems with imagery due to this.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

MorningSong

19th October 2011, 11:18

Another approaching sun-diving comet was sited yesterday (but it's tinsy-winsy) and should disappear into the sun today:

wFvEVmnJ9hs

panopticon

23rd October 2011, 04:16

G'day All,

October 22, 2011 from around 10:30 UT there was a long duration M 1.3 flare and CME from region 1314 (http://www.raben.com/maps/).
This is not expected to effect the Earth.
It's easy to forget how big these events really can be so here's a video showing the images from SOHO's Lasco C2 & C3 instruments.
C2 is a close in view and C3 is a wider one.

ihYde-n-gPs

All of these images are downloadable from the SOHO website:
http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Ineffable Hitchhiker

23rd October 2011, 06:38

LDE Flare cause fast CME
(Long Duration Event causes fast Coronal Mass Ejection)

0UWfbyfWj6Q

Twin M1.3 Flares & Huge CME Oct 22, 2011

0XEdSLTJh8A

"Solar Activity continues to be moderate with more low level M-Class flares taking place. Two CME's are seen in Lasco images and one of those caused by a filament burst is probably directed towards earth."

Sidney

23rd October 2011, 16:24

Looks like a dragon. Thank you for posting those, explains my melancholy mood yesterday. I wonder if being a Leo (sun sign) could have something do do with why I am so greatly affected by these events.

panopticon

24th October 2011, 02:24

G'day All,

Here's the predicted transit of the 22 October CME from Goddard:

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20111022_143500_anim.tim-den.gif

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Source:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20111022_143500_anim.tim-den.gif

panopticon

25th October 2011, 05:50

G'day All,

Interesting 24 hours.
ISWA (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/) isn't reporting any CME impact data within its 'CME Arrival Time Prediction' tool, yet IPS Oz was predicting that a CME appeared to be Earth bound:

Analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite imagery suggests that a CME observed approximately 00UT on 22 October is likely to have a glancing impact at the Earth during the latter half of the UT day of 24 October. Active levels are possible for the Australian region during 24-25 October with Storm levels possible at high latitudes.
I also don't understand why the warnings at the top of this page are reporting "normal" & "quiet" when it should be reporting (http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html) "normal" & "storm" as we are in a geomagnetic storm at the moment. Peculiar.

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/attachment.php?attachmentid=10788&d=1319520954

Spaceweather (http://spaceweather.com/) reports:

A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (02:00 pm EDT). According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the impact caused a strong compression of Earth's magnetic field, allowing solar wind to penetrate all the way down to geosynchronous orbit for a brief period between 19:06 UT and 19:11 UT. Earth-orbiting spacecraft could have been directly exposed to solar wind plasma during that time.

Anyway there's been no flares reported today and here is IPS Oz's summary and forecast (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5):

Solar activity has been Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar activity is expected to be Low over the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed remained around 350km/s for most of the UT day, increasing to ~500km/s with a strong shock observed at at 1749UT, probably due to the arrival of the 22/0058 CME.
IMF Bz was mostly neutral until the shock, subsequently varying between +/-20nT.

If you get a chance check out the IPS Oz Magnetopause model (http://www.ips.gov.au/Satellite/3/2) for the last day or so to see how close the magnetopause boundary got to the satellites..

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Addendum:
I reported that the warning for the geomagnetic storm weren't appearing at the top of the page, posted and then next thing ya know they are. Buggar. hehehehehe
:loco:

Sidney

25th October 2011, 22:19

It even produced a CME strong enough for the southern us to enjoy these beautiful Northern lights!!! Enjoy

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/video/northern-lights-shine-southern-us-14808921

MorningSong

26th October 2011, 12:33

Here's the news from spaceweather.com.....better late than never...

SUBSIDING STORM: The intense geomagnetic storm of Oct. 24-25 (described below) has subsided and US skies are returning to normal. If you missed the show, don't worry. The Northern Lights will be back. For much of the past few years, the sun has been in a quiet state; but solar activity is cyclical and the sun appears to be waking up again. Forecasters expect new Solar Cycle 24 to peak in 2012-2013 with many more chances to see auroras in unfamiliar places.

AURORAS IN THE USA: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth on Oct. 24th at approximately 1800 UT (2:00 pm EDT). The impact strongly compressed Earth's magnetic field, directly exposing geosynchronous satellites to solar wind plasma, and sparked an intense geomagnetic storm. As night fell over North America, auroras spilled across the Canadian border into the contiguous United States. A US Department of Defense satellite photographed the crossing:

http://spaceweather.com/aurora/images2011/24oct11b/Paul-McCrone3_strip.jpg

"This shows the auroras on Oct. 25th at 0140 GMT," says Paul McCrone of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center in Monterey, California. He created the image using visual and infrared data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's F18 polar orbiter. DMSP satellites carry low light cameras for nightime monitoring of moonlit clouds, city lights and auroras. Some of the auroras recorded by the F18 on Oct. 25th were as bright as the city lights underneath.

This "big picture" from orbit makes sense of what happened next. The bright band swept south and, before the night was over, auroras were sighted in more than thirty US states: Alabama, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois, Nebraska, Kentucky, North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma, Kansas, Iowa, Maryland, New York, Montana, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Washington, Virginia, Texas, Arizona, Minnesota, Maine, Michigan, Montana, Oregon, Arkansas and California.

THE INSTIGATING EXPLOSION: The CME that hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 24th left the sun almost two days earlier. It was propelled in our direction by an unstable magnetic filament, which erupted around 0100 UT on Oct. 22nd. This movie from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory shows the cloud expanding toward Earth in the first hours after the explosion:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/22oct11/cme_strip2.gif

Traveling faster than two million mph, the cloud took about 41 hours to cross the sun-Earth divide. The CME was so geoeffective because it contained a knot of south-pointing magnetic fields. These fields partially cancelled Earth's north-pointing magnetic field at the equator, allowing solar wind plasma to penetrate deeply into Earth's magnetosphere.

Andrew

26th October 2011, 13:44

Just posted this on another thread and didn't notice this one... so I'm posting it again here

xo6XwLFufrY

MorningSong

31st October 2011, 21:24

Two M-class flares have occured today from an area just over the Northeastern side of the sun:

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Wk2qYcTHrBc

5WZT-7gdo3A

Ineffable Hitchhiker

1st November 2011, 10:05

:scared:

http://i40.tinypic.com/2agw8l.jpg

Glitch in the matrix?

http://i51.tinypic.com/6fqly0.gif

http://i44.tinypic.com/2rfd4yp.jpg

MorningSong

1st November 2011, 12:29

Hey, Folks. It is getting ever more difficult for me to be on top of the Sun's situation because of time lags in internet data distribution/documentation and data not divulged outright, but I am still trying to keep you all as updated as can be as I find the available info.

Right now, the Sun's Earth-facing side has been quite calm with only a few C-class flares and only 7 numbered sunspots, but that will change in the next few days as a very active area in the Northeastern (and Southeastern) hemisphere turns around our way. As of only yesterday, two areas only identified with it's coordinates (N20E88, N21E88, N19E88 as well as S13E88, S16E88, S15E88) have been popping off C-class and M-class flares in abundance.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

According to SolarMonitor.org, solar activity is considered HIGH with the most active region being sunspot 330, with possibilities of X-flare 2%, M-falre 14% and C-flare 38%.

http://solarmonitor.org/

A Solar Storm is now underway with an alert for Kp index of 5. This may be caused from solar wind from a coronal hole as predicted by spaceweather.com on Oct. 30th.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=30&month=10&year=2011

The Mag-field is having a "static hair day" which is a pretty good thing even though the recombination on the backside of the Earth continues, letting solar plasma into our atmosphere, favoring visible auroras and electrification of our upper atmosphere.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

Heads up and keep an eye on the skies!

astrid

3rd November 2011, 08:39

ypak0eaxbIQ

G1 Geomagnetic Storm & Filament Eruption Nov 2, 2011
SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKING UP: A huge sunspot is emerging over the sun's NE limb. Yesterday it unleashed three M-class solar flares and hurled a coronal mass ejections into space.
Geoeffective solar activity could increase in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the sunspot toward Earth.

Ineffable Hitchhiker

3rd November 2011, 12:30

G1 Geomagnetic Storm & Filament Eruption Nov 2, 2011
SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKING UP: A huge sunspot is emerging over the sun's NE limb. Yesterday it unleashed three M-class solar flares and hurled a coronal mass ejections into space.
Geoeffective solar activity could increase in the days ahead as the sun's rotation turns the sunspot toward Earth.

Indeed.
See the next photo. I always seem to arrive at this thread when there are the weirdest photos.
I hope you don´t mind me posting them here, MorningSong. (kind of saving them for posterity.)
I love this thread and have learnt so much.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_304/512/latest.jpg

Today´s sunflares
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c2/512/latest.jpg

Kzx4rF6vWYU
Hot! Flare and CME! Late on November 2, the newest sunspot group, AR11339 produced an M4.3 flare with a peak in X-ray emission at ~22:00 UTC. There was a CME that appears to be associated off to the Northeast limb, not Earth directed. Here is a video of the flare observed in the 131 Angstrom wavelength from the SDO/AIA instrument. This wavelength shows plasma in the corona with temperatures up to about 15 Million Kelvin! (these high temperatures are observed in solar flares) and occur when Iron is super heated, having almost all of its electrons stripped away.

I was also able to follow drkstrong´s channel (http://www.youtube.com/user/drkstrong) with updates but unfortunately only see this when wanting to see his videos :-

Unfortunately, this video is not available in Germany because it may contain music for which GEMA has not granted the respective music rights.

The videos are very informative and up to date.
At the moment he is not adding his own voice/audio because he is busy writing a couple of papers.
So of anyone else is able to watch his videos, I highly recommend them.

edit :-
Yay!
He changed the music. :)

THE SUN TODAY: 3 November 2011 - M4 Flare (plus!)

KuVUjCbbzG4

MorningSong

3rd November 2011, 16:20

Wonderfully good finds, Astrid and Ineffable! Thanks for posting them and keep up the good work!

astrid

4th November 2011, 01:47

gNf0PUYQulE

Also there is an article here worth reading on
Linda Moulton Howe's site.

http://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=1907&category=Science

Arc

4th November 2011, 02:20

Invest in a Faraday cage to protect your flashlights, solar lamps, batteries, emergency hand crank radios, any radios, computers, car batteries, or anything else, depending on how large a container you have.

Boy that sounds technical and complicated. Nope. Remember these?
11044

Also, for the small stuff, those holiday cookie tins would work (as long as you sand off the paint on the inner lid, so it has a metal on metal contact).

MorningSong

4th November 2011, 04:29

X-Flare!

From Presto Alert:

Latest issue

:Issued: 2011 Nov 03 2042 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The GOES X-ray monitor just observed an X1.9 flare peaking at 20:27 UT.
No image data is available at the moment, but giving its high level of
activity during the past 24h, the source region of this flare was
probably NOAA AR 11339. We expect more flaring at M- or X-class level
from this region.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

Spaceweather.com:

X-FLARE: Big sunspot AR1339 (described below) unleashed an X2-class solar flare on Nov. 3rd at 2027 UT. A movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory shows the extreme ultaviolet flash. The flare created waves of ionization in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal progagation of radio waves over Europe and the Americas. Stay tuned for updates

astrid

4th November 2011, 07:59

rpBBLS8G-fA

"During the late hours of Nov 3, 2011 an X1.9 Solar Flare took place around Sunspot 1339. A CME was seen in the latest images at the time. It turns out that the expanding CME cloud may have resulted from a Solar Flare on the farside of the Sun at almost the same time."

MorningSong

5th November 2011, 20:32

What's up at spaceweather.com today:

POLAR BLAST: A magnetic filament curling around the sun's north pole erupted during the early hours of Nov. 5th. Material propelled by the blast is heading out of the plane of the solar system and will not impact any planet. [SDO movie]

BIG SUNSPOT: Sunspot AR1339 has quieted since Nov. 3rd when it unleashed an X2-class solar flare. Nevertheless, it still poses a threat for powerful eruptions. The behemoth sunspot has a "beta-gamma-delta" magnetic field that harbors energy for more X-flares. Eruptions this weekend could be Earth-directed as AR1339 turns toward our planet.

But we did get two more M-class flares from 339 this morning, one at 3:35 UTC and another at 11:21 UTC.

Thought I'd share this spectacular view of today's sun (notice how the the sunspots are all interconnected by their electromagnetic arches....just stunning and astonishing):

http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/StreamArgumentServlet?cygnetInstanceId=940157237&argumentId=1

Ineffable Hitchhiker

6th November 2011, 00:35

Wow! That is stunning Morning Song!

THE SUN TODAY: 5 November 2011 - ASTEROID THREAT

7ndxW2QPilk

nearing

7th November 2011, 01:52

MorningSong

7th November 2011, 02:05

nearing

7th November 2011, 02:10

It is crazy, nearing. I have been to this thread several times today and sometimes the pict was there and sometimes it wasn't...so lets see if this works:

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/attachment.php?attachmentid=11156&d=1320631406&thumb=1

Well, darn. There is no image, just a little xbox with a question mark in it. Oh well, thanks for trying MorningSong, I appreciate it.

MorningSong

7th November 2011, 02:15

Here's another:

http://solarmonitor.org/data/20111107/pngs/saia/saia_00193_fd_20111107_013655.png

or just go here and have a look at some others just as pretty (click on AIA 171A or 193A):

http://solarmonitor.org/

I put the other one, that I am now seeing several times on the thread now, in my profile album... you can see it there, too.

PS: Notice that 4 new sunspots are present now...

nearing

7th November 2011, 03:28

MorningSong

8th November 2011, 17:51

Last night a double ribbon filament erupted on the northwestern Earth-facing side of the sun (N30W35) producing a CME as well. The fireworks started at 22:30 and lasted until 00:44 UTC. The resulting CME will graze the Earth in the next 48 hours:

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_111107_213317_71139/www/SSW_cutout_20111107T2230-20111108T0045_AIA_304-193-171_461614.5_ssw_cutout_20111107_223009_AIA_304__20111107_223008_context_0180.gif

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_111107_213317_71139/www/

Sunspot 339 got showy immediately afterwards with a M 1.2 flare at 00:46 and then another M 1.4 at 6:14 UTC.

http://www.solarmonitor.org/region.php?date=20111107&region=11339

All of sunspot 339's flares will be geo-effecttive now that it is sitting directly in front of Earth right now.

enfoldedblue

8th November 2011, 23:32

Hi Morningsong,

Thanks for all your posts. I always like to know what is going on with the sun. However I am a bit confused by conflicting info from different sources. Spaceweather for example reports no recent flares and reports only 01% for both M class and X class in the next 48 hours, while Solarmonitor reports only c class flares (no recent M), and 19% for X flares and 50% for M flares. Any idea why this is?

Thanks,c

MorningSong

9th November 2011, 05:25

Hey there, enfoldiedblue! Good question that I too would like to have answered as well! I think the answer lies in the fact that spaceweather is associated with NASA (never a straight answer!). That is why I always try to go beyond the "hype" to get to the real data...if I can find it... and cross reference with as many sites as possible.

In this thread, I have often expressed my frustration of how the info is sometimes hard to find, covertly embedded in frilly words, or blatantly withheld. In this world of deception and illusion, we must all fend for ourselves and spread the truth whenever possible... that's how I feel about it.

So keep up the antenaes and double check even my info....I am sometimes unwittingly wrong, too. lol

panopticon

9th November 2011, 11:01

G'day MorningSong and enfoldedblue,

To give you both another data set to use.

IPS Oz provides:

Raw data from both Culgoora and Learmonth Observatories here (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar),
X-ray flares (larger than C-8) are reported here (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/8), and
their main Space Weather page updates every couple of minutes and is located here (http://www.ips.gov.au/Space_Weather).

Also NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/) (NGDC) might be useful if looking for historical data.

Hope this helps the :smash: urges.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Addendum:
Just to add there's also CACTUS (http://sidc.be/cactus/) which detects CMEs as well as the ARBIS 3 program (http://www.physics.usyd.edu.au/~lobzin/arbis/) which analyses and uses data provided from the Aussie observatories.

MorningSong

9th November 2011, 14:53

A little over an hour ago there was an M-class flare mag 1.1.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_1m.gif

Here is what spaceweather.com says about the filament eruption on the 7th-8th:

AURORA WATCH: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Nov. 10-11 when a coronal mass ejection could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field. The source of the CME is a solar filament that erupted during the late hours of Nov. 7th. NOAA forecasters estimate a ~20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms

Unified Serenity

9th November 2011, 16:15

I just read a report that for the next two weeks we are going to be vulnerable to a massive CME that could wipe out our electronics worldwide. This is the same region of the sun apparently that caused the massive telegraph shutdown in the 1800's. I guess we will just have to watch and wait. I haven't started building Faraday cages or covering stuff in aluminum foil yet.

jcocks

10th November 2011, 08:50

Wouldn't surprise me. We're in that special part of our history where this sort of thing will start to happen. It will be what shapes us a a species going on - our "coming of age", so to speak.

Think of it as "growing pains"...

panopticon

10th November 2011, 14:03

G'day All,

The 9th was an interesting 24 hour period that has produced two CME's that appear earth bound.
CACTUS (http://sidc.be/cactus/) reports of interest for that period:
'Details and graphs for CME0038|2011/11/09 (http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/CME0038/CME.html).'
'Details and graphs for CME0041|2011/11/09 (http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/CME0041/CME.html).'

LASCO C2 imagery is available (http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/data_query) and shows the series of CME's starting with the 08:36 halo and culminating with the 13:36 halo.

IPS OZ Report (http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5):

SDO images show brightening in the vicinity of region 1342 (N17,E42) near the time of an M1.1 flare at 1335 UT. The SDO images also show events ~0844 UT in the south-east quadrant and in the north-east quadrant ~1529 UT. CMEs are observed in STEREO and LASCO images around 0900 UT and 1340 UT and are likely to be associated with the above events. Both CMEs are expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show solar wind parameters were mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly undisturbed on 10 Nov although there may be a late increase in activity due to the ~1529 UT CME. Wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed 11 and 12 Nov due to CME effects.

iSWA (http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/)
CME warning:
Event Issue Date: 2011-11-09 19:22:54.0 GMT
CME Arrival Time: 2011-11-12 07:12:26.0 GMT
Arival Time Confidence Level: ± 6 hours
Disturbance Duration: 18 hours
Disturbance Duration Confidence Level: ± 8 hours
Magnetopause Standoff Distance: 6.2 Re

I think the above standoff distance is within geosynchronous satellite orbit.

Spectacular images available from SOHO Lasco C2.

08:36 Halo:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111109/20111109_1024_c2_512.jpg

13:48 Halo:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111109/20111109_1448_c2_512.jpg

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Sidney

10th November 2011, 14:40

Holy crap..Get out the tin foil. :behindsofa:

MorningSong

10th November 2011, 16:42

Here's what spaceweather.com is saying about yesterday's flares:

INCOMING CME? Yesterday, Nov. 9th around 1330 UT, a magnetic filament in the vicinity of sunspot complex 1342-1343 erupted, producing a M1-class solar flare and hurling a CME into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the progress of the expanding plasma cloud:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/10nov11/cme_strip2.jpg

Although the eruption was not squarely aimed at Earth, the CME is likely to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on Nov. 11th or 12th. This could add to the impact of another CME already en route. The earlier cloud was propelled by a filament eruption (movie) on Nov. 7th and is also expected to deliver a glancing blow on Nov. 11th.

Analyses of these events are still preliminary, and the forecast may change. For now it is safe to say that high-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Nov. 11-12

Ineffable Hitchhiker

10th November 2011, 16:55

Huge Filament Eruption & M1.1 Solar Flare / Solar Watch Nov 10, 2011
A magnetic filament eruption that was detected as an M1.1 solar flare took place at 13:35 UTC Wednesday morning between active regions 11342 and 11342. A powerful Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) ensued and components may be Earth Directed where impact is expected November 13th.

HnyDVmQjOzM

panopticon

11th November 2011, 01:44

G'day All,

@Unified Serenity & jcocks: You might find this workshop report from 2008 (http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12507) interesting and for a list of events since the 1859 Carrington storm have a look here (http://www.solarstorms.org/SRefStorms.html).

Here's Dr K Strong's 'The Sun Today' report on the 9th November CME's:

QzMdZbLcUsg

At iSWA's predicted 6.2Re the standoff is approx 4000 Km outside geosync orbit (~5.6Re) -- (Calculated using Re = 6400 km & geosync orbit = 35,786 km).
I blame dyslexia for remembering geosynchronous orbit at 6.5Re (oops) -- Apologies.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

Addendum:
IPS Oz Latest forecast agrees with spaceweather.com & Dr K Strong regards incoming CME's:

There have been several C class flares over the last 24 hours
The largest of these flares was a C6.0 flare from region 1339(N19W33) at 1831UT.
Solar activity is expected to be Low with a chance of isolated M-class flares for the next 3 days.
The solar wind speed varied mostly between 340-400 Km/s over the UT day.
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT with some prolonged southwards periods in the later half of the UT day.

A possible glancing blow from the CME activity observed on November 9 may elevate the wind speed and density during the later half of November 11 or early on 12 November.

panopticon

13th November 2011, 08:05

G'day All,

Spaceweather.com reported:

As predicted, a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Nov. 12th at approximately 0600 UT. The impact caused ground currents in Norway and a brief flurry of auroras around the Arctic Circle, but otherwise had little effect. No big geomagnetic storms are in tthe offing.
Further information from spaceweather.com (http://spaceweather.com/submissions/large_image_popup.php?image_name=Rob-Stammes-CME-nov.12_1321089744.jpg):

Rob Stammes

Image taken: Nov. 12, 2011

Location: Laukvik,Lofoten,Norway,polarlightcenter instruments.

Details: A distinct and very weak effect from a CME this morning,nov.12 2011 on my instruments.

http://spaceweather.com/submissions/pics/r/Rob-Stammes-CME-nov.12_1321089744.jpg

Also CACTUS reports a small CME Halo (http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/CME0033/CME.html) on the 12/11/2011 @ 18:48UT.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panoption

Ineffable Hitchhiker

13th November 2011, 09:39

Here is last nights video from drkstrong. (http://www.youtube.com/user/drkstrong)
Not much happening but it is interesting how tiny earth is and how it could fit into just one sunspot.

Anyway, on with the show. :)

THE SUN TODAY: 12 November 2011 - Sunspots That Could Swallow the Earth

Nl6WqTSl8AA

Todays images.

http://i39.tinypic.com/11rt8pt.jpg

http://i43.tinypic.com/x62xi.jpg

MorningSong

13th November 2011, 22:48

Update from spaceweather.com:

MERCURY-DIRECTED CME: A significant coronal mass ejection (CME) blasted away from the sun's eastern hemisphere on Nov. 12th. Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the cloud will hit Mercury on Nov. 13th at 1800 UT (+/- 7 hr) followed by Venus about one day later. The innermost planets are about to experience space weather. [CME: movie, forecast track]

REMARKABLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: There haven't been any strong solar flares in days. Nevertheless, some impressive activity is underway on the sun. For one thing, an enormous wall of plasma is towering over the sun's southeastern horizon. Stephen Ramsden of Atlanta, Georgia, took this picture on Nov. 11th:

http://spaceweather.com/swpod2011/13nov11/Stephen-W-Ramsden1_strip.jpg

"Solar forums all over the world are buzzing with Sun-stronomers proclaiming this to be the biggest prominence that many of them had ever witnessed," he says.

Remarkably, though, this is not the biggest thing. A dark filament of magnetism is snaking more than halfway around the entire sun: SDO image. From end to end, it stretches more than a million km or about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. If the filament becomes unstable, as solar filaments are prone to do, it could collapse and hit the stellar surface below, triggering a Hyder flare. No one can say if the eruption of such a sprawling structure would be Earth directed.

What is a Hyder Flare?

http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/4/1

Looks to me, like the filament is getting ready to lift off....but I may be wrong...
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/AIA20111113_221509_0304_2048.png

panopticon

14th November 2011, 03:39

G'day MorningSong,

That CME sure is big:
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20111112_232400_anim.tim-den.gif

Thanks for the info on on Hyder Flares, sneeky little blighters ain't they.

Kind Regards, :yo:
Panoptiion

MorningSong

14th November 2011, 16:14

spaceweather has updated their comments on the giant filament:

REMARKABLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: In terms of solar flares, the sun is quiet today. Nevertheless, some impressive activity is underway on the sun. For one thing, an enormous wall of plasma is towering over the sun's southeastern horizon. Stephen Ramsden of Atlanta, Georgia, took this picture on Nov. 11th:

"Solar forums all over the world are buzzing with Sun-stronomers proclaiming this to be the biggest prominence that many of them had ever witnessed," he says.

Remarkably, though, this is not the biggest thing. A dark filament of magnetism is winding halfway around the entire sun. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory took this picture during the early hours of Nov. 14th:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/14nov11/filament_strip.jpg

From end to end, this twisted fiber of magnetism stretches more than a million km or about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. If the filament becomes unstable, as solar filaments are prone to do, it could collapse and hit the stellar surface below, triggering a Hyder flare. No one can say if the eruption of such a sprawling structure would be Earth directed.

"I cant help but wonder what could possibly come next since we are still over a year away from the forecasted Solar Maximum," adds Ramsden. "There's never been a better time to own a solar telescope than now!"

SOLAR UPDATE: The wall of plasma on the sun's SE limb has shifted to a state of high activity. "The prominence is evolving very fast now!" reports Sylvain Weiller of Saint Rémy lès Chevreuse, France. This morning it looked like [the dinosaur] Diplodocus."

In my previous post, I had posted a similar picture, but it got lost somewhere.....oh, well.

MorningSong

15th November 2011, 16:03

Today from spaceweather.com:

NAP! ERUPTING FILAMENT: For the past few days, astronomers around the world have been monitoring a dark filament of magnetism sprawled more than 1,000,000 kilometers across the face of the sun. Make that 750,000 km. On Nov. 14th the filament snapped and flung a fraction of itself into space. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/15nov11/snap_strip2.jpg

The eruption hurled a cloud of plasma into space, but not toward Earth. The only effect on our planet would be to disappoint observers hoping for a longer filament.

Meanwhile, a wall of plasma towering over the sun's SE limb is seething with activity and may be poised to erupt as well. Readers with solar telescopes are encouraged to monitor developments.

And in another meanwhile, two M-class flares were noted today; one at 9:03 UTC from sunspot 348 located on the far western limb so the CME might just give a very slight buff to Earth and another at 12:30 UTC from sunspot 346 located just east of center view which means that it's CME will be geoeffective within the next 48 hours.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html

http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/8

As the Kp Index has moved up to level 4 today, aurora activity has increased from the 1-3 levels of yesterday to 5-8 levels since around 6:00 UTC today.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/Plots.html

MorningSong

19th November 2011, 22:25

On November the 17th, a wave flury of C-class flares occured on the eastern limb of the Earth-facing solar corona involving new sunspots 353 and 354 and a filament eruption. The action began at 19:20 UTC on the 17th and ended at 1:40 UTC on the 18th.

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_111117_222907_148/www/

A filament eruption today on the 19th from 13:45 to 15:00 UTC in the same area.

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_111119_080827_80054_2/www/

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

MorningSong

21st November 2011, 09:38

From spaceweather.com:

ACTIVE SUNSPOT: A new sunspot (image) has emerged over the sun's NE limb and it could bring an uptick in solar activity. On Nov. 18th, the active region hurled a bright CME toward Venus, and on Nov. 19th it produced the following eruption, recorded by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory:

http://spaceweather.com/swpod2011/20nov11/eastactivity_strip.jpg

So far, Earth has been unaffected by the action of this sunspot group, but this could change as the region turns toward our planet in the days ahead. Stay tuned

nomadguy

22nd November 2011, 16:40

on the 19th,
http://projectavalon.net/forum4/attachment.php?attachmentid=11469&d=1321979723

Sidney

23rd November 2011, 04:33

Why does it say Nov 8 in the corner of the image.

nomadguy

23rd November 2011, 18:12

no kidding, somehow my computer sorted into the 19th,
nice spotting!
SO its the 8th. Somehow it got date stamped 11 19 2011. No matter,

~mighty odd corona I think.

MorningSong

26th November 2011, 18:14

From Presto Alert:

:Issued: 2011 Nov 26 1240 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A solar energetic particle event at energies above 10 MeV was detected
by GOES starting from around 08:30 UT this morning. The proton flux
increase was associated with a double-peaked C-class flare detected this
morning, with two peaks at 07:13 UT (C1.2) and 08:27 UT (C1.5). The
first peak is associated with a filament eruption to the west of the
Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 1353) starting at 06:43 UT, as
evidenced by SDO/AIA data, and with a CME first detected in the
SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:12 UT. The second flare peak took
place in the Catania sunspot group 55 (NOAA AR 1357) that is currently
situated at the north-west limb. The SOHO/LASCO data is still not
available to confirm if a CME was possibly associated with the second
flare peak. The proton flux increase seems to be associated with the
second flare.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html

One of the flares:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111126/20111126_0748_c2_512.jpg

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20111126_0609.png

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20111126_0609.html

Ineffable Hitchhiker

27th November 2011, 09:24

Full Halo CME + Proton Flare / Solar Watch Nov 27, 2011

Full Halo CME / S1 Minor Radiation Storm:
At 07:00 UT, a magnetic filament exploded in the northwest quadrant of the solar corona, causing a powerful Coronal Mass Ejection. Analysis of the Lasco C2 and in the latest STEREO Ahead/Behind COR2 images, it does appear that most of the explosion was directed away from Earth. A glancing blow may be possible in 48 hours. The proton levels reached the S1 Minor Radiation Storm threshold and slowly subsiding.

qlSHR6MYAaY

MorningSong

27th November 2011, 21:18

Update from Presto Alert:

:Issued: 2011 Nov 26 2119 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
New SOHO/LASCO data on the CMEs associated with the double-peaked
C-class flare of this morning is now available. The C1.2 flare peak
(updated peak time 07:10 UT, located at N11W47) resulted from the
eruption of a filament to the west of the Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA
AR 1353). It was associated with a partial halo CME first detected in
the LASCO C2 field of view at 07:00 UT, with angular width around 270
degrees and the speed around 700 km/s. On the contrary, the C1.5 flare
peak (updated peak time 08:24 UT) located in the Catania sunspot group
55 (NOAA AR 1357) at the north-west limb was not associated with any
CME. It is therefore most probable that, contrary to our earlier
evaluation, today's SEP event (that is still ongoing) was produced by
the partial halo CME associated with the filament eruption to the west
of Catania sunspot group 52 (NOAA AR 1353). The arrival of the
corresponding ICME at the Earth is expected in the evening of November
28 - morning of November 29. Configurations of the photospheric magnetic
field and post-eruptive arcade indicate that a possible magnetic cloud
will most probably have left-handed chirality and will be inclined at
around 45 degrees to the ecliptic plane, with southward interplanetary
magnetic field in the leading part of the cloud. A major geomagnetic
storm will be possible.

http://www.sidc.be/products/presto/

MorningSong

29th November 2011, 17:32

spaceweather.com is reporting a weak CME impact last night around 21:25 UTC causing auroras in various areas of the world. A photographer describes them as "mind.blowing...all over the sky". I say.....hmmm..and that was a "weak CME", huh?

What I have seen, examining the data is a very quick quirk in the mag field at the hour indicated with a much more significant event following much later on, starting at 00:17 UTC and completely resolved at 00:32 UTC:
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20111129001732.jpg
http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20111129003247.jpg

A bit later on around 02:00 UTC, the mag field got all wound up and hot due to density/velocity and temperature fluxing:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20111129020329.jpg

This reconnection of mag fields behind the Earth aids the influx of charged solar plasma into our atmosphere which is then observed as auroras.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20111129045614.jpg

Finally around 06:11 UTC, the mag fields untangled themselves and began to deflect the solar plasma storm:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/test_6.20111129061116.jpg

So, if any of you have had a ho-hum, exausting day like me....this is probably why.

PS: According to iNtigrated Space Weather System, we had 3 CMEs incoming last night and this morning..... will try to post something if any of the data sites mention them specifically.

MorningSong

1st December 2011, 18:25

Spaceweather.com says the sun is quiet.....

so what is this, hmmmm????

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111130/20111130_2324_c2_512.jpg

Sidney

2nd December 2011, 21:29

That......is the explanation for my migraine. And yeah, I have noticed on a regular basis they say its quiet when there are flares left and right. OMG my head hurts...

Wind

2nd December 2011, 21:39

Wow. Sun is surely waking up.

MorningSong

6th December 2011, 20:15

What's up at spaceweather.com:

SUBSIDING SUNSPOT: After three days of meteoric growth, sunspot AR1363 has reversed course and is beginning to decay. As its magnetic field relaxes, the active region poses a subsiding threat for strong flares. It's not dead yet, though, as this snapshot shows:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/06dec11/c6_strip2.jpg

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th. AR1363 is crackling with low-level flares like this one.

There is still a slim chance that AR1363 will buck the trend and unleash a major M- or X-class eruption. If such an flare happens today, it will be geoeffective because the sunspot is facing Earth. Quiet, however, is more likely.

whenyournex2me

7th December 2011, 00:06

That......is the explanation for my migraine. And yeah, I have noticed on a regular basis they say its quiet when there are flares left and right. OMG my head hurts...

There is this professor in a lecture that recorded it and a student or the teacher himself uploaded it to youtube, I will find it when I got the time, but... he explains the sun cycles and how the particles effect the male and female mamals on Earth. This lecture though is mainly to the sun cycles and the connection he is making to the brain. Was very interesting to watch this. He even goes on to say that the female mamals will stop breeding, or menstrating without the solar particles that which come from the sun... There apprentley has been many tests where they take female woman, dogs, other beings, deep underground under a bedrock, and 6 months later they stop having a period or stop producing eggs...

Thought that may be of interest. :)

Sidney

8th December 2011, 03:14

Wow, that is interesting. Would love to see that! I might try to look it up too. Ty

Carolin

8th December 2011, 04:27

I've been watching the videos put out by these guys for months now and absolutely love them. Grounded and intelligently done, their daily videos always touch on what's up with the Sun. This one moved me so I thought I would share.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yoQIZttnhw&feature=uploademail

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.printable&pageId=373629

MorningSong

8th December 2011, 17:17

Thank-you so much, Carolin, for bringing these guys to my attention!

Here is "Dear NASA" mentioned in the vid above.

QILtTHBDi-Q

And here's their latest "news" vid posted today:

wKUwbf-LSmc

MorningSong

11th December 2011, 18:15

Here's the lates from SolarWatcher:

gpL9gtVh8gk

And from SuspiciousObservers:

G1qEnINr6jk

MorningSong

14th December 2011, 18:27

Well, Comet Lovejoy, a sun-grazer, is heading toward the sun, as reported by spaceweather.com:

SIGNIFICANT COMET PLUNGES TOWARD THE SUN: A comet nearly as wide as two football fields (200m) is plunging toward the sun where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16. Although Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) could become as bright as Jupiter or Venus when it "flames out," the glare of the sun will hide the event from human eyes. Solar observatories in space, however, will have a grand view. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft recorded the comet's approach on Dec. 11:

http://spaceweather.com/swpod2011/12dec11/lovejoy_hi1b_Dec11.gif

"You can clearly see the comet heading diagonally through the images," says Karl Battams of the Naval Research Lab who prepared the animation. "During the 16-hour sequence, the comet brightens from magnitude +8 to +6.5, approximately."

It will soon grow much brighter. "This comet is a true sungrazer, and will skim approximately 140,000 km (1.2 solar radii) above the solar surface on Dec. 15/16," notes Battams. At such close range, solar heating will almost certainly destroy the icy interloper,creating a cloud of vapor and comet dust that will reflect lots of sunlight. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) will have a particularly good view.

It looks tiny compared to the huge one some time ago.....

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/03oct11/beforeandafter_strip2.jpg

Meanwhile, the sun is putting out a buuuunch of C-mag flares, some of which might be Earth bound....but that isn't so important, now, is it?

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

Nonetheless, watch for more solar activity as the sun-grazer approaches the sun.

edit:

Guess I wrote too soon...just found this at SolarHam.com:

Sun Diving Comet :
A much larger Comet is now seen in the latest Lasco C3 images and is headed near the Sun. This is in addition to a much smaller rock as seen in this image Tuesday night. Click HERE for the latest movie.

Update: As per the SOHO website, the comet is expected to travel behind the Sun and not directly into it. Click HERE for the latest updates.

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c3/20111215/20111215_0930_c3_512.jpg

MorningSong

14th December 2011, 19:02

After watching the following vid by the SuspiciousObservers and the one at spaceweather.com.... I think they are looking at the wrong comets.... the one coming in is much bigger.... some reports say it should be visible to the naked eye...well, here it's raining so I won't be able to check that out....

5ywicKoKGSg

Sidney

22nd December 2011, 05:25

Nice eruption this morning starting around 3 30 am ish. Worth watching on the soho movie theatre. Heres a snapshot, but doesnt do justice without watching video. Havent figured out how to post those yet.

12131

nomadguy

22nd December 2011, 05:26

Happy Solstice Everyone!
Check this out,
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov//data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c3/20111222/20111222_0342_c3_512.jpg

Sidney

22nd December 2011, 05:32

Thats pretty cool!!!

Turcurulin

22nd December 2011, 05:34

Happy Solstice!

MorningSong

22nd December 2011, 18:36

Hey folks!

According to SolarSoft, this morning around 2:00 UTC there was a "Meta X Transequatorial Eruption Wave at Active Region (AR) 1381/82" with Earth directed C5.4 flare (CME).

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/ssw/media/ssw/ssw_client/data/ssw_service_111221_201308_32948/www/SSW_cutout_20111222T0150-20111222T0300_AIA_304-193-171_250-57.5000_ssw_cutout_20111222_015001_aia_171__20111222_015000_context_0180.gif

Wind

22nd December 2011, 22:33

That is insane!

hdthewise

23rd December 2011, 12:58

did anyone have problems getting on solarmonitor..org for a few days and if so does any one know why thanks

Sidney

24th December 2011, 05:27

Ya, and I have another Solar headache.

MorningSong

24th December 2011, 18:43

Our "quiet" sun today:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111224/20111224_0248_c2_512.jpg

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111224/20111224_0936_c2_512.jpg

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/REPROCESSING/Completed/2011/c2/20111224/20111224_1448_c2_512.jpg

Supposedly only C-class flares, huh???

VaughnB

24th December 2011, 18:59

GREAT.
But for us laymen, would be nice to have a synthesis code: GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED alert significance for any particular CME.

MorningSong

24th December 2011, 19:13

And who wouldn't, dear friend.

I have been watching these sun events for years now, and must say that the info (explainations) given to the public on the web has greatly diminished recently and are usually hind-sight for the most. The data is there, but I do not understand it all, nor can I interpret it all. And another bad thing about the data is that it is hardly ever "real time"...usually behind a few hours if not days. Sometimes I see things going on in the data that is never even mentioned or commented on on the typical sites.

As far as these CME's go, you can be sure it won't bother any of us much, except for some sensitive folks who are attuned to (aware of their ties to) Earth/Sun frequencies.

In the meanwhile, I am watching the sun, waiting for the big one so I can ring the alarm....hahahha.

Peace and Good Will to all!

Sidney

25th December 2011, 02:35

Mega chemtrails at sunset this evening, directly over the sun. I swear I saw something below the sun, like another sun, but we were driving and it was behind the trees. They are hiding something, I have no doubt.

hdthewise

25th December 2011, 16:25

moringsong i agree with you i have noticed that when things start getting on an upswing like cmes and earthquakes there is less infomartion posted if we want information durring thease times we have to look for it our selves and a lot of tiimes its days behind or not posted as clearly as it was before i have been watching earthquaks grow in numbers over the last few years they down play it saying the larg earthquakes are in normal range and discount the huge spike in smaller ones same with the cme's the saye the larger ones are in the normal range and they dont even coment on the huge upswing of the smaller ones i would like to know why this happens lol i guess we know if we think about it

MorningSong

25th December 2011, 19:15

Well... just in time...

SOLAR ACTIVITY PICKS UP: Dec. 25th began with a pair of magnetic filaments erupting in the sun's northern hemisphere followed by a sequence of C-flares from sunspot 1385 in the sun's southern hemisphere. Both halves of the sun are rocking on Christmas: SDO movie. Coronagraph images from SOHO and the twin STEREO probes suggest a possible Earth-directed CME. Stay tuned for updates.

http://spaceweather.com/

And an 4.0 M-class flare was abserved at 18:11 UTC from an unidentified sunspot (S22W26) today, too!

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20111225_1811.png

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

MorningSong

26th December 2011, 11:33

Latest from spaceweather.com:

CME TARGETS MARS, EARTH: New sunspot 1387 erupted during the late hours of Christmas Day, producing an M4-class flare and hurling a CME toward Earth and Mars. Click to view an animated forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/26dec11/cmemodel_strip2.jpg

The CME is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 1200 UT and a direct hit to the planet Mars on Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars. Here on Earth, NOAA forecasters estimate a 30-to-40% chance of geomagnetic storms on Dec. 28th when the CME and an incoming solar wind stream (unrelated to the CME) could arrive in quick succession. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Wednesday night.

BEAUTIFUL BLAST: After three years of deep quiet, the sun woke up in 2011. Sunspots and solar flares became commonplace again as long-awaited Solar Cycle 24 got underway. One of the most beautiful eruptions of the young solar cycle occured just this past weekend. Rogerio Marcon of Campinas SP Brasil photographed the blast on Christmas Eve:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/26dec11/Rogerio-Marcon1_strip.jpg

"I made a time-lapse video of the eruption," says Marcon. "What a wonderful Christmas present." While Marcon was recording the event from Earth, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory was doing the same from Earth-orbit. It was beautiful up there, too.

This explosion was not Earth-directed. Next time, however, could be different. The source of the blast, sunspot 1386, is turning toward Earth, increasing the chances of a geoeffective flare in the days ahead.

I will add that we got another M-Class flare this morining (1.5 mag) around 2:26 UTC from an AR near sunspot 387.

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20111226_0213.html

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

MorningSong

26th December 2011, 20:21

Update from spaceweather.com:

CMEs TARGET EARTH, MARS: The odds of a geomagnetic storm on Dec. 28th are improving with the launch of two CMEs toward Earth in less than 24 hours. NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft photographed this one on Dec. 26th:

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/26dec11/cme_strip.jpg

According to a forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the cloud should squarely strike Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 28th at 20:22 UT (+/- 7 hours). Another CME could deliver a glancing blow a few hours earlier on the same date. The double impact is expected to spark mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms at high latitudes.

Mars is also in the line of fire. The first of the two CMEs is squarely directed toward the Red Planet--estimated time of arrival: Dec. 30th at 1800 UT. Using onboard radiation sensors, NASA's Curiosity rover might be able to sense the CME when it passes the rover's spacecraft en route to Mars.

SolarSoft has just posted another M-class ( 2.0 mag) at 20:12 UTC. That makes at least three incoming CME's back to back.... should be an interesting ride on the 28th.

Turcurulin

26th December 2011, 21:29

From Secchi -

http://secchi.nrl.navy.mil/sccimages/Archive/a/hi/20111224/1024/20111224_020901_tbh1A.png

MorningSong

26th December 2011, 21:42

What is the significance, Turcurulin? I see a flare and what looks like 2 planets.... what happened at that time in 2007?

Turcurulin

26th December 2011, 21:48

Sorry, MorningSong. Was looking for a good compare/contrast between then and now, but couldn't find the right pictures to present with the proper planetary orientations. But, look at all of that extra energy Jupiter's getting anyhow!

Thanks for all of the info you post here. Amazing!

MorningSong

26th December 2011, 21:55

ok.

I was just looking at SOHO Lasco3 Movie Theater and was taking in all the flares, wondering why only a few are listed in the data sites...and stumbled onto the bottom pare of the SolarMonitor home page..... it has this:

Events not associated with currently named NOAA regions: C5.7(11:23) /C1.6(04:47) C5.5(08:49) C8.4(11:20) C2.2(16:55) C7.7(20:23)

http://solarmonitor.org/

Those are all pretty big flares and are all Earth bound..... incredible!

MorningSong

27th December 2011, 12:33

Latest SWPC 3-day Space Weather Forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hour. Region 1387 (S22W42) has produced two M-class flares, the
largest being an M2/Sf event at 26/2030Z. Region 1387 continues to
grow, in areal coverage and magnetic complexity as it rotates into a
more geoeffective location. Region 1386 (S17E37) also continues to
grow and evolve. A proton enhancement at geosynchronous orbit was
observed by the GOES 13 spacecraft, with a max flux of 3 pfu at
26/0135. This enhancement appears to be correlated to the M4/1n
flare from Region 1387 on 25 December. Protons were again at
background level at the time of this report. Over the past 36 hours,
5 CMEs have been observed in STEREO and LASCO C2 and C3 imagery.
Three CMEs were associated with eruptive filaments and two were
associated with flares from Region 1387. Of these five CMEs two are
forecast to become geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class events for the next
three days (27 - 29 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
December). An increase to quiet to active levels with a chance for
an isolated minor storm period on days two and three (28 -29
December) is expected as two CMEs, from filament eruptions on 25
December and 26 December, are expected to arrive on 28 December and
early on 29 December, respectfully.

III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 146
Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 26 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 004/005-013/018-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec-29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/40/40
Minor storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/40/40
Minor storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/15/20

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

MorningSong

29th December 2011, 21:06

Latest SWPC 3-day Space Weather Forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1386 (S18E08), Region 1387 (S21W70) and New Region
1389 (S20E70) have all produced C-class events, the largest being
from Region 1389, which was a C7/1F flare at 1425Z. Region 1386 and
1387 both continue to grow and evolve, but have yet to produce
major solar activity. Several small non-Earth directed CMEs were
observed during the summary period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (29 - 31 December).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Signatures observed by the ACE spacecraft indicate the arrival of a
small CME around 0950Z. Solar wind speeds increased from around 250
km/s to 280 km/s with and increase in the total IMF to around 14 nT.
This transient appears to be from an unknown event, perhaps on 24
December. The lower energetic particle sensors on the ACE spacecraft
continue to gradually increase, indicating another approaching CME.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with a chance for isolated
minor storm levels on day one (29 December) as multiple CMEs are
expected to arrive. Quiet to unsettled level are expected on day two
(30 December) as effects the previous CMEs wane. Predominantly
quiet levels are expected on day three (31 December).

III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 145
Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 145/140/140
90 Day Mean 28 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 015/022-012/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec-31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/01
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 20/20/01

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Yesterday morning around 11:00UTC, a Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was observed and the K-index rose and fell as a result of the arrival of one of the first CME's from Dec 24 or Dec 26. This morning the Geomagnetic K-index has risen again as two CME waves have reached Earth. Presently we are in a geomagnetic storm as a third wave has reached Earth.

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/images/aeidx.jpg

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

MorningSong

31st December 2011, 14:33

Latest SWPC 3-dy Space Weather Forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class flares were
observed from Region 1389 (S22E44), an M2/Sf at 29/2151Z and a M1/Sn
at 30/0309Z. The region ended the period as an Ekc type group with
beta magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were stable
and magnetically simple.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate levels, particularly from Region 1389,
for the next three days (31 December - 02 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind speed at the
ACE spacecraft was near 350 km/s. Bz at ACE was briefly southward
to -8 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for day one (31 December),
increasing to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active
conditions on days two and three (01-02 January). The increase in
activity is expected with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed
stream.

III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 141
Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 30 Dec 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/005-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/15/15

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

MorningSong

7th January 2012, 00:29

Has been a pretty calm week, but looks like things are picking up.

Here's the latest from SuspiciousObservers:

xNFSZAQQofM

3EnlSj1zriA

And the latest from spaceweather.com:

INCOMING CME? A magnetic filament in the sun's northern hemisphere erupted on Jan. 5th and hurled a CME in the general direction of Earth. At first it appeared that the cloud would sail north of Earth and completely miss our planet. Subsequent work by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab suggests a different outcome: the CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 7th. Click to view an animated forecast track:

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/06jan12/cmeforecast_strip2.jpg

NOAA forecasters were already calling for a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 7-8 in response to a high-speed solar wind stream. The arrival of a CME would boost the chances even more.

Ineffable Hitchhiker

7th January 2012, 08:27

Hi MorningSong,
haven´t popped in here for ages. :)

I have a little update....
I enjoy the presentations and the images are stunning.

FARSIDE BLAST: A magnetic active region behind the sun's eastern limb erupted during the late hours of Jan. 6th. SOHO recorded the flying debris. In a few days the blast site will rotate onto the Earthside of the sun for closer inspection. Stay tuned.

LFF9RnXTqEY

Ineffable Hitchhiker

13th January 2012, 09:29

http://i44.tinypic.com/xt3kj.jpg

http://i43.tinypic.com/34hb6tz.gif

Source (http://www.n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html)

FHVzGc97ztg

FARSIDE ERUPTION: On Jan. 12th, between 10:00 and 1300 UT, NASA's STEREO-Behind spacecraft observed a significant eruption on the farside of the sun. Although the blast was partially eclipsed by the edge of the solar disk, it nevertheless produced a long-duration X-ray flare (C3-class) detectable from Earth. A movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows some of the debris flying over the NE limb:

The blast site is only ~two days away from rotating onto the Earthside of the sun. By this weekend, we could get a direct look at the active region. Perhaps it will break the recent string of mostly quiet days and low solar activity.

Update: The partially-eclipsed C-flare was strong enough to make waves of ionizaton in Earth's upper atmosphere. This, in turn, disturbed the normal propagation of low-frequency radio waves over Europe. "The C3.3 flare on the far side of the Sun was picked up on my SID monitoring station," reports Dave Gradwell of Birr Ireland. "It affected the 20.9 kHz signal from FTA in France, just before the signal became unstable."

blufire

13th January 2012, 16:19

Has anyone else observed the since this solar cycle has became active all the major flares and eruptions have occurred on the “other side” of the sun.

Something “over there” always out of our line of site perturbing the sun perhaps??? ;)

MorningSong

14th January 2012, 17:46

MorningSong

14th January 2012, 17:56

Just to liven things up, the sun is turning it's more active side towards Earth again. Today we got a M-class 1.4 mag flare from an active area just coming over the north-western edge....

http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/gev_20120114_1314.png

From spaceweather.com:

M-FLARE: Today at 1318 UT, Earth-orbiting satellites detected an M1-class solar flare (SDO movie). The source is a new sunspot emerging over the sun's northeastern limb.

And this Coronal Hole is staring us in the face:

CORONAL HOLE: NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory is monitoring a dark gash in the sun's atmosphere--a coronal hole. It's the dark vertical feature in this extreme UV image taken on Jan. 13th:

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/14jan12/coronalhole_strip.jpg

Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows the solar wind to escape. This yawning hole is about 120,000 km wide and more than a million km long. Solar wind flowing from its UV-dark abyss will reach Earth on Jan. 16th or 17th, possibly sparking auroras for high-latitude sky watchers.

blufire

14th January 2012, 18:49

You know from time to time how you get those little bits of info from ‘out there’ that makes your pulse go up and hair stand on end . . . . . well I just got one of those looking at the picture of the dark gash nearly the entire length of the sun.

In the Maya literature the “dark rift” is mentioned over and over and how the earth, sun and other planets will line up with it in 12/2012. Books and other info have generally suggested it is the dark rift in our solar system . . . . well what if they (mayan) meant the dark rift that opens in the sun??? Or even the dark rift we see now in the sun lining up with the rift in our solar system in addition to our planets?

I no joke am feeling a bit sick right now . . . . .

astrid

16th January 2012, 07:28

JvSp8XSWuGU

Rocky_Shorz

17th January 2012, 05:19

Yes, blufire, I have been seeing this reality for as many years as I have been watching the sun through on-line data ( since about 2007). I have truely wondered why the sun appears to be much more active on the non-Earth facing side. Unfortunately, I haven't found an answer to this question....yet! lol

take a look at this link right after the burst, look at the little white dots pulling away they are the size of our moon... they are in a straight line stretching across the sunspot and all pull away together...

check this soho movie...

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/gallery/assets/movies/SSW_cutout_20110607T0611-20110607T0715_AIA_211-193-171_S22W53.mov

whatever they are, we're glad they are there...

it is like they are sunspot band aids, covering the opening until danger passes from earth...

That M popped early or it would have hit us...

Ineffable Hitchhiker

17th January 2012, 07:22

Aurora watch in the Northern hemisphere.

A very long duration C6.4 event was detected around Active Region 11402. A Full-Halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced shortly after. This CME will hit Venus during the late hours of Jan. 18th. This CME might deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field around 1200 UT on Jan. 19th. The impact could cause geomagnetic activity and auroras around the Arctic Circle.

Earth is entering a moderately-fast (540 km/s) solar wind stream that could spark geomagnetic disturbances around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight.

273u4ANl9dc

AURORA WATCH: Earth is entering a moderately-fast (~500 km/s) solar wind stream that could spark geomagnetic disturbances around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight.

M_leHAKHYH0

MorningSong

18th January 2012, 17:12

What's new at spaceweather.com:

SOLAR PROMINENCE: Today, a network of plasma-filled magnetic filaments is rising over the sun's northwestern limb. Some of the arcs in this Solar Dynamics Observatory image taken during the early hours off Jan. 18th are nearly 500,000 km long:

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/18jan12/redprom_strip.jpg

The vast structure is an easy target for backyard solar telescopes. If you have one, take a look. Any instability in the magnetic thicket of this prominence could produce a spectacular eruption framed by the black of space over the sun's horizon.

"Any instability.....could produce a...eruption...." Yes, and this is turning towards us slowly every day...... cross your fingers it doesn't decide to come un-attached then!

PS: In case anyone missed it, there was an M1 flare yesterday from sunspot 401.... some are predicting a glancing blow from its CME around the 19th-20th preceded by possible geomagnetic disturbance from another incoming CME produced on the 16th.

Here's the latest SWPC 3-day forecast:

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z: Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 1401
(N18E38) produced an M1/1n at 17/0453Z. The other significant spot
group, Region 1402 (N28E40), was quiet during the period. Both
regions continued their growth phase in area and magnetic complexity
and are both classified E-type Beta-Gamma groups. New Region 1406
(S23W55) emerged on the disk as a D-type group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the
next three days (18 - 20 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decayed
during the past 24 hours from a high of near 500 km/s to a low of
about 400 km/s at the end of the period. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through day one and most of
day two (18 - 19 January). By late on day two and through day three
(20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to
unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This activity
is due to the anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result
of the 16 January CME.

III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 139
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 145/150/155
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 144

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 004/005-006/006-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/20

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

MorningSong

19th January 2012, 17:36

We are having a prolonged M-Class flare, now decreasing n magnitude, that reached it's peak around 16:08UTC.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif

From spaceweather.com:

ADVANCING SUNSPOTS: A phalanx of sunspots is turning toward Earth. Their advance is documented in this two-day movie from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/19jan12/advancing_strip.jpg

The large one in the middle, AR1401, has a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. At the moment it is unleashing one such flare every day, such as this flash recorded during the late hours of Jan. 19th. Eruptions from AR1401 will become increasingly geoeffective in the days ahead as the sun's rotation aligns the active region with our planet.

Ineffable Hitchhiker

19th January 2012, 21:24

Here is a presentation of the M3.2 Long Duration Event around Sunspot 1402 on Jan 19, 2012. Images + Movies by SDO, EVE and STEREO.
This event produced a bright and partially Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection.

P3n2yZl-nns

These are the latest from SOHO LASCO C2.

http://i43.tinypic.com/1z6w8t5.jpg

http://i40.tinypic.com/n9ks5.jpg

update

M 3.2 Flare + FULL HALO CME / Solar Watch Jan 20, 2012

EARTH-DIRECTED CME: Active Region 11402 erupted between 15:15 and 16:30 UT on Jan 19th. The long-duration blast produced an M2.6 & M3.2-class solar flares and a Full Halo CME that appears to be heading toward Earth. Geomagnetic storms will be possible within 60 hours. Further significant solar flare activity around Active Regions 11401 & 11402 are possible in the coming days as they are growing and changing shape rapidly.

YJoehhYZXjA

1inMany

20th January 2012, 01:49

I wanted to say thank you for this thread again. I wonder if you could help me with something when you have a moment. I see the spikes on the graph, and I see the "poof" on the video. To me, they look like a "big" solar flare. I don't have anything to compare it to. Is there a "normal" range? Or a level on the graph that would make you sit up and take notice?

Thanks, and much love to you :)

MorningSong

21st January 2012, 17:30

1inMany,

I'm hesitant to define what might be called a "normal" range for anything related to the Sun-Earth connections. It all effects us. But if I really have to narrow it down a little, the M and X-class flares can interfere with radio and satelite transmissions. Extremely strong x-class flares could potentially cause sats to malfunction or even take down mankind's electrical grids.

My own experience is that M and X-class flares seem to precede large earthquakes, as well. So, my eyebrows go up when I see those.

MorningSong

21st January 2012, 17:47

From spaceweather.com:

INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted on Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/20jan12/ldcme_strip.jpg

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs).

The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA's Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.

Yet, NOAA/NWS Apac Weather Predictions have this:

2012-01-20 16:35 G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Possible January 23

SWPC Forecasters have determined that the CME from NOAA Region 1402 near disk center yesterday will likely pass above (north) of Earth. This glancing blow will cause just G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity. Look for the first signs of it around 1800Z (1:00 pm EST) on Sunday, January 22, with the bulk of the disturbance to occur Monday, January 23. Watch here for updates.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/