The One
21st September 2011, 07:54
A group of Italian scientists went on trial Tuesday for failing to predict an earthquake that killed more than 300 people in central Italy in 2009 despite signs of increased seismic activity in the area.
The seven defendants -- six scientists and one government official -- are accused of manslaughter in a case that some see as an unfair indictment of science.
Prosecutors say residents around the city of L'Aquila in the mountainous Abruzzo region should have been warned to flee their homes in the days before the quake.
"We simply want justice," L'Aquila prosecutor Alfredo Rossini told reporters.
The injured parties are asking for 50 million euros ($68 million) in damages.
The defendants were members of a panel that had met six days before the April 6 quake to assess risks after hundreds of tremors had shaken the medieval university city.
At that meeting, a committee analysed data from the low-magnitude tremors and determined that the activity was not a prelude to a major earthquake.
The only one of the seven defendants present at Tuesday's hearing was Bernardi De Bernardinis, a former senior official in the Civil Protection Agency.
"I think it's important to be here because I am own my own turf. I am from Abruzzo and I owe it to the people here," Bernardinis told the court.
The other defendants include top scientists like Enzo Boschi, the former director of Italy's prestigious National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology, as well as Claudio Eva, a physics professor at Genoa University in northern Italy.
"This is a trial which opens on very shaky foundations. You cannot put science on trial," Alfredo Biondi, Eva's lawyer, told AFP. Biondi said his client had told the 2009 meeting that a major earthquake could not be ruled out.
The experts are accused of giving overly reassuring information to residents who could have taken adequate protective measures if they had been properly informed.
According to the indictment, the seven are suspected "of having provided an approximative, generic and ineffective assessment of seismic activity risks as well as incomplete, imprecise and contradictory information."
The experts had made it clear that it was not possible to predict whether a stronger quake would occur but had recommended stricter enforcement of anti-seismic measures, particularly regarding building construction.
Tuesday's hearing consisted of technical discussion on the list of witnesses and the civil parties involved. The next session was scheduled for October 1.
In an open letter sent to Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, more than 5,000 scientists said the defendants essentially face criminal charges for failing to predict quakes, even though this remains technically impossible.
But Vincenzo Vittorini, a doctor who founded the association "309 martyrs" and lost his wife and daughter in the disaster, said: "I hope that this trial will change mindsets and will lead to greater attention given to communication on risks."
"No one expected to be told the exact time of the quake. We just wanted to be warned that we were sitting on a bomb," he added
Some 120,000 people were affected by the 6.3 magnitude quake, which also destroyed the city's historic centre and medieval churches as well as surrounding villages.
In the September 14 issue of the science weekly Nature focused on the L'Aquila trial, Thomas Jordan, head of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), said the case raises a fundamentally important issue about risk assessment.
US scientists testing earthquake early warning
After years of lagging behind Japan, Mexico and other quake-prone countries, the U.S. government has been quietly testing an earthquake early warning system in California.
Elizabeth Cochran belongs to an exclusive club of scientists who receive a heads up every time the state shakes.
She was sitting in her office this month when her computer suddenly sounded an alarm. Beep. Beep. Beep. A map of California on her screen lit up with a red dot, signalling an earthquake had struck. A clock counted down the seconds until shock waves fanning out from the epicenter north of Los Angeles reached her in Pasadena: 5-4-3-2-1.
Right on cue, Cochran felt her chair quiver from a magnitude-4.2 that rumbled through Southern California on Sept. 1.
"If I hadn't known it was an earthquake, I would have thought it was a truck going by," she said.
The alert system is still crude and messages are not yet broadcast to residents or businesses.
With more testing and funding, researchers hope to build a public warning system similar to the Japanese that has been credited with saving lives during the March 11 magnitude-9 disaster.
Since earthquakes are unpredictable, supporters of early warning say it's the next best thing to prepare people and businesses before the ground rocks. Even a 5-second advance notice can be precious, they contend.
"You want to get under a sturdy table before things start falling off the wall," said University of California, Berkeley, seismologist Richard Allen, a project participant. "We don't want people to start running out of buildings."
Early warning is designed to sense the first pulses of energy after a fault breaks and estimate the magnitude. This is possible because of the different speeds at which seismic waves travel.
A sprawling web of underground sensors can detect the faster-moving and less damaging primary "P'' waves before the secondary "S'' waves that can cause buildings to pancake. A warning is issued ahead of the arrival of the stronger waves.
How much warning — a few seconds to tens of seconds — depends on the distance from the epicenter. The farther away, the more lead time.
Project chief Doug Given of the US Geological Survey ticked off actions that can be taken: Trains can be slowed or stopped. Air traffic controllers can halt takeoffs and landings. Power plants and factories can close valves. Schoolchildren can dive under their desks and cover their heads.
Early warnings are useless at the quake's origin because the tremors radiate out almost simultaneously.
Japan invested in a public alert system after the deadly 1995 magnitude-6.9 Kobe earthquake. Development began in 2000. Seven years and $500 million later, Japan unveiled the world's first early warning network. Parts of Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey also have embraced early warning, but their systems are less sophisticated.
The Japanese got their big test in March when a massive quake hit off the northeast coast and spawned a tsunami. A public emergency announcement was sent out 8 seconds after sensors detected the first inkling of the quake, interrupting regular TV and radio programming, and buzzing cell phones.
Millions received 5 to 40 seconds of warning depending on how far they were from the epicenter. Tokyo — about 230 miles (370 kilometers) away — got about 10 to 30 seconds of notice before high-rises swayed. A dozen trains were stopped in their tracks without derailing.
There were glitches. Sensors underestimated the quake at a magnitude-8.1 when it was actually 22 times stronger. Because of the error, warnings were not sent to certain cities. The jolt was so violent that it knocked 55 seismic stations offline and there were no warnings sent for aftershocks for several hours.
Still, USGS director Marcia McNutt told US lawmakers the Japanese early warning system saved thousands of lives.
"Shame on us if we do not learn from their misfortune," she testified.
Since 2006, the U.S. has been testing three alert systems and launched a prototype internally known as "ShakeAlert" in February, a month before the Japan devastation. For now, messages are only blasted out to about 30 scientists at the USGS, California Institute of Technology and University of California, Berkeley, where they are working out software bugs on a small budget.
Where possible, the U.S. has borrowed aspects of Japan's warning system. Researchers said it's not possible to just replicate it because of differences in the countries' seismic sensor networks.
"It's not perfect," said Berkeley's Allen of the U.S. effort. "Frankly, it's stuck together with duct tape, but it's operational."
The next steps are to partner with businesses to test the system in the real world later this year and work on a more robust network. The Southern California Earthquake Center, made up of 55 research institutions worldwide, has been chosen to independently rate how it's working.
Technology hurdles aside, the work suffers from lack of funding. The USGS has spent $2 million and is seeking help from private foundations and industry groups. Scientists estimate it will cost $80 million over five years to create a statewide public alert system and millions more annually to maintain it.
"That's tough in this budget environment when there are lots of trade-offs that have to be considered," said David Applegate, associate director for natural hazards at USGS headquarters.
It's been a long wait for Caltech engineering professor Tom Heaton, who has studied early warning for more than three decades and finally got it running in his house on his 60th birthday.
"My hope is that it happens before I die. That's my goal," Heaton said
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.emirates247.com%2Foffbeat%2Fthis-is-life%2Fscientists-go-on-trial-for-failing-to-predict-quake-2011-09-20-1.419669&ei=KZd5TrGZJM6yhAeOromKAQ&usg=AFQjCNHDDFvG_NfG7wHA9ZkNDfCkEUJkpg
Lets be honest do you think we will get any warning before its to late.
The seven defendants -- six scientists and one government official -- are accused of manslaughter in a case that some see as an unfair indictment of science.
Prosecutors say residents around the city of L'Aquila in the mountainous Abruzzo region should have been warned to flee their homes in the days before the quake.
"We simply want justice," L'Aquila prosecutor Alfredo Rossini told reporters.
The injured parties are asking for 50 million euros ($68 million) in damages.
The defendants were members of a panel that had met six days before the April 6 quake to assess risks after hundreds of tremors had shaken the medieval university city.
At that meeting, a committee analysed data from the low-magnitude tremors and determined that the activity was not a prelude to a major earthquake.
The only one of the seven defendants present at Tuesday's hearing was Bernardi De Bernardinis, a former senior official in the Civil Protection Agency.
"I think it's important to be here because I am own my own turf. I am from Abruzzo and I owe it to the people here," Bernardinis told the court.
The other defendants include top scientists like Enzo Boschi, the former director of Italy's prestigious National Institute of Geophysics and Vulcanology, as well as Claudio Eva, a physics professor at Genoa University in northern Italy.
"This is a trial which opens on very shaky foundations. You cannot put science on trial," Alfredo Biondi, Eva's lawyer, told AFP. Biondi said his client had told the 2009 meeting that a major earthquake could not be ruled out.
The experts are accused of giving overly reassuring information to residents who could have taken adequate protective measures if they had been properly informed.
According to the indictment, the seven are suspected "of having provided an approximative, generic and ineffective assessment of seismic activity risks as well as incomplete, imprecise and contradictory information."
The experts had made it clear that it was not possible to predict whether a stronger quake would occur but had recommended stricter enforcement of anti-seismic measures, particularly regarding building construction.
Tuesday's hearing consisted of technical discussion on the list of witnesses and the civil parties involved. The next session was scheduled for October 1.
In an open letter sent to Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, more than 5,000 scientists said the defendants essentially face criminal charges for failing to predict quakes, even though this remains technically impossible.
But Vincenzo Vittorini, a doctor who founded the association "309 martyrs" and lost his wife and daughter in the disaster, said: "I hope that this trial will change mindsets and will lead to greater attention given to communication on risks."
"No one expected to be told the exact time of the quake. We just wanted to be warned that we were sitting on a bomb," he added
Some 120,000 people were affected by the 6.3 magnitude quake, which also destroyed the city's historic centre and medieval churches as well as surrounding villages.
In the September 14 issue of the science weekly Nature focused on the L'Aquila trial, Thomas Jordan, head of the International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting (ICEF), said the case raises a fundamentally important issue about risk assessment.
US scientists testing earthquake early warning
After years of lagging behind Japan, Mexico and other quake-prone countries, the U.S. government has been quietly testing an earthquake early warning system in California.
Elizabeth Cochran belongs to an exclusive club of scientists who receive a heads up every time the state shakes.
She was sitting in her office this month when her computer suddenly sounded an alarm. Beep. Beep. Beep. A map of California on her screen lit up with a red dot, signalling an earthquake had struck. A clock counted down the seconds until shock waves fanning out from the epicenter north of Los Angeles reached her in Pasadena: 5-4-3-2-1.
Right on cue, Cochran felt her chair quiver from a magnitude-4.2 that rumbled through Southern California on Sept. 1.
"If I hadn't known it was an earthquake, I would have thought it was a truck going by," she said.
The alert system is still crude and messages are not yet broadcast to residents or businesses.
With more testing and funding, researchers hope to build a public warning system similar to the Japanese that has been credited with saving lives during the March 11 magnitude-9 disaster.
Since earthquakes are unpredictable, supporters of early warning say it's the next best thing to prepare people and businesses before the ground rocks. Even a 5-second advance notice can be precious, they contend.
"You want to get under a sturdy table before things start falling off the wall," said University of California, Berkeley, seismologist Richard Allen, a project participant. "We don't want people to start running out of buildings."
Early warning is designed to sense the first pulses of energy after a fault breaks and estimate the magnitude. This is possible because of the different speeds at which seismic waves travel.
A sprawling web of underground sensors can detect the faster-moving and less damaging primary "P'' waves before the secondary "S'' waves that can cause buildings to pancake. A warning is issued ahead of the arrival of the stronger waves.
How much warning — a few seconds to tens of seconds — depends on the distance from the epicenter. The farther away, the more lead time.
Project chief Doug Given of the US Geological Survey ticked off actions that can be taken: Trains can be slowed or stopped. Air traffic controllers can halt takeoffs and landings. Power plants and factories can close valves. Schoolchildren can dive under their desks and cover their heads.
Early warnings are useless at the quake's origin because the tremors radiate out almost simultaneously.
Japan invested in a public alert system after the deadly 1995 magnitude-6.9 Kobe earthquake. Development began in 2000. Seven years and $500 million later, Japan unveiled the world's first early warning network. Parts of Mexico, Taiwan and Turkey also have embraced early warning, but their systems are less sophisticated.
The Japanese got their big test in March when a massive quake hit off the northeast coast and spawned a tsunami. A public emergency announcement was sent out 8 seconds after sensors detected the first inkling of the quake, interrupting regular TV and radio programming, and buzzing cell phones.
Millions received 5 to 40 seconds of warning depending on how far they were from the epicenter. Tokyo — about 230 miles (370 kilometers) away — got about 10 to 30 seconds of notice before high-rises swayed. A dozen trains were stopped in their tracks without derailing.
There were glitches. Sensors underestimated the quake at a magnitude-8.1 when it was actually 22 times stronger. Because of the error, warnings were not sent to certain cities. The jolt was so violent that it knocked 55 seismic stations offline and there were no warnings sent for aftershocks for several hours.
Still, USGS director Marcia McNutt told US lawmakers the Japanese early warning system saved thousands of lives.
"Shame on us if we do not learn from their misfortune," she testified.
Since 2006, the U.S. has been testing three alert systems and launched a prototype internally known as "ShakeAlert" in February, a month before the Japan devastation. For now, messages are only blasted out to about 30 scientists at the USGS, California Institute of Technology and University of California, Berkeley, where they are working out software bugs on a small budget.
Where possible, the U.S. has borrowed aspects of Japan's warning system. Researchers said it's not possible to just replicate it because of differences in the countries' seismic sensor networks.
"It's not perfect," said Berkeley's Allen of the U.S. effort. "Frankly, it's stuck together with duct tape, but it's operational."
The next steps are to partner with businesses to test the system in the real world later this year and work on a more robust network. The Southern California Earthquake Center, made up of 55 research institutions worldwide, has been chosen to independently rate how it's working.
Technology hurdles aside, the work suffers from lack of funding. The USGS has spent $2 million and is seeking help from private foundations and industry groups. Scientists estimate it will cost $80 million over five years to create a statewide public alert system and millions more annually to maintain it.
"That's tough in this budget environment when there are lots of trade-offs that have to be considered," said David Applegate, associate director for natural hazards at USGS headquarters.
It's been a long wait for Caltech engineering professor Tom Heaton, who has studied early warning for more than three decades and finally got it running in his house on his 60th birthday.
"My hope is that it happens before I die. That's my goal," Heaton said
http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CCcQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.emirates247.com%2Foffbeat%2Fthis-is-life%2Fscientists-go-on-trial-for-failing-to-predict-quake-2011-09-20-1.419669&ei=KZd5TrGZJM6yhAeOromKAQ&usg=AFQjCNHDDFvG_NfG7wHA9ZkNDfCkEUJkpg
Lets be honest do you think we will get any warning before its to late.