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jackovesk
6th November 2011, 05:30
Paul Drockton: Derivatives Traders Face Margin Calls Monday

http://www.moneyteachers.org/images/paste453.jpg

The DOW's "Head and Shoulders Pattern" Foretells coming Crash

"Head and Shoulders" Pattern:

A technical analysis term used to describe a chart formation in which a stock's price:

1. Rises to a peak and subsequently declines.
2. Then, the price rises above the former peak and again declines.
3. And finally, rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more.

The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head."


"CME Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CME) owns and operates large derivatives and futures exchanges in Chicago and New York City, as well as online trading platforms. It also owns the Dow Jones stock and financial indexes. The exchange-traded derivative contracts include futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, rare and precious metals, weather and real estate."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CME_Group

The 8th largest bankruptcy in history, MF Global (a derivatives trader), has now apparently forced the largest derivatives exchange group in America into an apparent liquidity crisis. Derivatives, which are bets using futures and options, can also be purchased on margin. Margin is borrowed money from the broker/bank.

"There is a liquidity crunch in the options & futures markets for commodities worldwide. CME, the exchange for such transactions in the US, had made the initial margin and maintenance margin equal for every commodity with options and futures. This implies that options and futures holders will be forced to deposit addition capital to the CME in the form of maintenance margin, simply to hold their positions. This will put markets under pressure on Monday. The lack of liquidity and additional margin requirement comes in the aftermath of the bankruptcy of MF Global." (Source)

Zero Hedge broke the story yesterday:

"What exactly was the announcement. Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call for tens if not hundreds of billions worth of product. Because as of close of business on November 4, today, the CME just made the maintenance margin, traditionally about 26% lower than the initial margin for specs, equal. For everything. Which means that by close of business Monday, millions of options and futures holders will be forced to deposit billions in additional capital to the CME just so they are not found to be margin deficient, and thus receive a margin call. Naturally, since it is very unlikely that this incremental amount of liquidity can be easily procured in one business day, we anticipate the issuance of hundreds of thousands of margin calls Monday, followed by forced liquidations of margin accounts across America... and the world." (Source)

Margin calls are one of the reasons cited for the 1929 crash. Since banks and institutional investors are already in a liquidity crisis, this move could have a massive impact on the 1500 trillion dollar global derivatives market. Companies like Bank of America (with 75 trillion dollars in derivatives exposure), and JP Morgan (another 75 trillion dollars of exposure) could be wiped out by this event since they are both investing in, and providing loans (margin) to the derivatives markets.

This would explain the massive Put Option purchases against the S&P 500. It would also explain why Bank of America and JP Morgan have transferred their 150 trillion dollar exposure to the US taxpayer via FDIC.

Their greatest exposure would be on their own derivatives holdings.

I recommend buying the December Puts on Bank of America and JP Morgan on Monday, as well as all of the other major banks. Since derivatives are suppressing precious metals prices by the likes of JP Morgan, this should bode well for silver prices.

The most effective way to protest is not holding up a sign outside of a public building. If you want to hit them where its hurts, then do the following:

1.Get your money out of Mutual Funds, Stocks and Bonds and into Silver Bullion. Silver prices are about to go vertical and you will realize dramatic gains. Email me at pdrockton@aol.com

2. Get your money out of the banks and Credit Unions and into physical silver, food and other commodities.

3. Get your money out of insurance company investments. Remember AIG went broke in 2008. This collapse will make 2008 look like a bump in the road.


Derivatives exposure is estimated at 1000-1500 trillion dollars. The global economy is only 50 trillion.

Other Recommendations:

1. I sell both silver and gold and currently have no supply issues. Delivery is still 2 weeks or less. For current priceing, Email me at pdrockton@aol.com

2. You should be shorting the market with the psychos. I do consult for a fee. email me for more info.

3. If you can't move your money into physical precious metals then move your money into a money market fund.

4. Drain your cash values on your life insurance policies and annuities. Convert to physical metals. Insurance companies will not survive the economic collapse.

5. Buy food while it is still cheap. A year's supply. Also heirloom seeds.

6. Allicin C kills all bacteria, virus's, fungus and biological agents. It also stores extremely well for a long time without losing its potency. Get some.

http://www.moneyteachers.org/Margin+Calls.htm

PS - Forewarned is Forearmed...

Lily de Cuir
6th November 2011, 05:40
Holy crappola! Tomorrow should prove interesting huh? I'm ready...:popcorn:

Cheers,
Lily

Lost Soul
6th November 2011, 06:23
Thanks. I saw this elsewhere and have been prepared for a while. The most important thing is not to give into fear or panic and to have your spiritual house in order.

Thefrenzy1978
6th November 2011, 06:38
Just a question he is saying pull all your money from your bank and investments if you have any and buy his silver and gold what is he going to do with all that worthless paper money when he gets it eat it sleep on it use it as post it notes seems abit silly to me.

GlassSteagallfan
6th November 2011, 06:42
* * * UPDATE * * *

CME Issues Clarification On Margins: To Usher More Risk, Less Liquidity In MF Aftermath

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2011 - 14:37

MF Global Moral Hazard

Yesterday, in what is the worst-phrased and most misleading press release to ever come out of the CME, the exchange issued a notice that going forward all Initial margin would be equal to Maintenance margin. Our gut interpretation was that "Unless we are completely reading it incorrectly, it is nothing short of a margin call for tens if not hundreds of billions worth of product." Judging by the broad response, our initial reaction is what a prudent, logical human being would assume: after all, it is precisely the undercollateralization of customer accounts, and general underfunding at MF Global that is what brought that particular company down. Well, we wrong wrong. The CME, it appears has taken a page right out of the European playbook, and less than a week after an exchange-cum-Primary Dealer collapsed due to excessive risk taking, the CME has followed up its vague press release from yesterday by inviting even more risk in lowering the initial margin. Why is this a cause for even greater concern? As the CME itself says, "Initial margins are set to provide an additional buffer against future losses in the account" - so going forward that buffer has been reduced by about 30%. But what is the reasoning provided by CME: "The intent and effect of these changes is to decrease the size of any margin calls resulting from the bulk transfer of MF Global customers to new clearing members, not to increase them." So basically the CME is implicitly putting all of its existing and current clients and customers at further risk by onboarding the accounts of those clients who, like lemmings, held on to their MF Global accounts until after it was too late. Because while the lower Initial margin may apply to MF accounts, it will also apply to any Tom, Dick and Harry beginning Monday, who will suddenly see a 30% reduced gating threshold to put on a position. Any position, no matter how risky.

Naturally, if enough people suddenly jump to put on risk, and the market flips and all new positions end up underwater, who will bail out CME accounts if, like MF, there is just not enough capital on the balance sheet? MF Global?

That the CME has opted for this highly disturbing path is very troubling, and just as in Europe, where three months after the financial short selling ban, financials are trading lower than they have ever been, so the unintended consequences from this action will result in even greater stress to the system, as not a single local will leave any excess money in their account, and likely will force all specs to trade within a hair of triggering maintenance margin, due to fears of what may happen at the CME itself, now that is has implicitly onboarded moral hazard from the otherwise insolvent MF Global accounts.

It also means the systemic liquidity is about to drop to even lower and more depressed levels.

And completing the symmetry with the recent action out of Europe, we learn that said Initial Margin reduction is a "short-term accommodation" which will apply until further notice. As an indication, Europe has extended its short selling ban several times and likely will keep it until the bitter end. We expect nothing less from the CME, where the new benchmark will be one of even greater initial position leverage which is what this margin reduction effectively accomplishes.

Yet what is most troubling is the complete lack of care to the wording of the initial press release, as if it was thrown together by a 1 month intern who had heard his boss scream something at them from the conference room. That an event of this systemic importance requires not one but two releases, which still leaves many questions open (why does this apply to non-MF accounts? How long will this last and why it is open ended - after all the MF onboarding is a several day event at most? What happens to new non-MF initial trades which cover just initial and immediately see margin calls as maintenance is breached due to the lack of a 25% initial buffer) is by far the most surprising, and unfortunately leads to questions about both the CME's professionalism and competence.

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/cme-issues-clarification-margins-usher-more-risk-less-liquidity-mf-aftermath

jackovesk
6th November 2011, 06:44
Just a question he is saying pull all your money from your bank and investments if you have any and buy his silver and gold what is he going to do with all that worthless paper money when he gets it eat it sleep on it use it as post it notes seems abit silly to me.

I think what he is trying to say is this...

"If its Written on a Piece of Paper, its only worth the Paper its Written On"!

Gold & Silver are the only real forms of Wealth having survived as Currency for 1,000s of years!

ThePythonicCow
6th November 2011, 07:06
So ... they blew up MF Global a week ago, and they tightened margin requirements this weekend.

It's like watching enemy sappers (combat bomb placement units) wiring up a bridge you just know they will have to blow up sooner or latter, and then seeing in your binoculars the lead sapper pushing the plunger on the box to ignite the fuses.

The world's dominant banking interests have been doing this for "ever" it seems. This is how they start a crash.

Stick you fingers in your ears to protect your eardrums.

ThePythonicCow
6th November 2011, 07:42
So ... they blew up MF Global a week ago, and they tightened margin requirements this weekend.
Oops me wrong wrong :).

I did not read Tyler Durden's correction, as posted above by GlassSteagallfan, before I made my previous post above.

They aren't blowing the bridge ... yet.

They are planting more dynamite under it.

They seem to be piling the debt and risk higher and deeper ... must be planning on a really grand fireworks display someday.


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/Keplers_supernova.jpg/300px-Keplers_supernova.jpg


Keplers Supernova (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SN_1604)

music
6th November 2011, 12:52
Just a question he is saying pull all your money from your bank and investments if you have any and buy his silver and gold what is he going to do with all that worthless paper money when he gets it eat it sleep on it use it as post it notes seems abit silly to me.

Good observation.

That's not to say that a crash isn't being engineered, because it so obviously is, but it was astute of you to find the flaw in reasoning.

parcival
6th November 2011, 13:45
From what the CME is stating, this will be very bullish and a golden opportunity for the gamblers of the futures markets to score big. See ya at 14,000 DJI. yahoo!

Oh, and by the way, Drockton was calling for a mkt crash at the beginning of Oct when the DJI was 10, 400. We went up to 12, 200 since that brilliant call.

The entire banking and financial systems are corrupt and are run by the same families. They are not going to cause a crash of their own monies. It will take much more than that; these families need to be replaced and just maybe we are starting to see signs of that. And I don't mean the sillies who are active in the OWS brigades.

parcival

Lost Soul
7th November 2011, 05:58
Gold up $17.20 already by 00:55 NYT.

Shocking Display
7th November 2011, 08:05
Just a small question that has been bugging me a little of the past few months. If buying gold and silver with fiat currency, where does this fiat currency go once the gold and silver is bought? Yes I can hear you say 'Into more gold and silver' but it still builds a backlog of 'cash' as it were and building more and more as more people buy these commodities. If there is a 'bust' it will be sudden (surely) and all this 'cash' would have to be 'written off' in terms of hyper inflation, then making all the gold and silver virtually worthless again. The last thing the average person will want to buy is gold and silver when they can't afford a loaf of bread etc.

I can see at the moment it may be a good investment (Gold and Silver) while markets are volitile but still wonder why it would be after a crash.

I can't help but feel that even though I can see there are massive problems in a global sense economically that all these reports and urgency and recommendations to buy gold and silver is only lining the pockets of a few that are savvy enough to use the current zeitgeist as a marketing tool.

I am quite open to an explanation if I have got the wrong end of the stick.

Lost Soul
8th November 2011, 18:26
If buying gold and silver with fiat currency, where does this fiat currency go once the gold and silver is bought? Yes I can hear you say 'Into more gold and silver' but it still builds a backlog of 'cash' as it were and building more and more as more people buy these commodities.

Precious metal dealers use their capital to generate more capital. They buy low, sell high and take their profits to repeat it. If they are smart, and I think investment adviser Peter Schiff is among them, they set aside a certain amount of their profits as precious metals. By doing this, they can have more precious metals than what they would have had had they just bought precious metals for keeping. It's making your money work for you that makes them rich.


If there is a 'bust' it will be sudden (surely) and all this 'cash' would have to be 'written off' in terms of hyper inflation, then making all the gold and silver virtually worthless again. The last thing the average person will want to buy is gold and silver when they can't afford a loaf of bread etc.

This is the gamble that the precious metal dealers have to take. They're betting that they'll be able to recoup their investment before the collapse.

BTW, you are right in that food should be first and foremost in things to buy. Any disposable capital that isn't needed for food may be used for precious metals.

The most important thing above all else is spiritual salvation. Get your spiritual house in order. I think most of us here at Avalon are working on that right now.

BTW, since the margin call gold went up from Friday's closing at $1755 to $1798 (1324 hrs, NYT, 8 Nov. 2011).

Calz
8th November 2011, 18:37
Really not rocket science here folks.

Stop and consider.

1932ish "great depression" was based (partially) on margin calls on stocks (read 1/2 leverage).

Today the futures markets are based closer to 1/9 leverage ... with a number of exotic gimics that make numbers go off the chart.


Straight up ... here is the story ...


If (*if) the PTB/W want to crash the system completely it could be done in a heartbeat.

Do the math.

Some suggest that the PTB/W want to keep it affloat to support ***their*** military (read not america's).

Who knows? So many layers of the onion to peel.

My "hunch" is that regardless of the amount of "awakening" that is going on ... unless we have some help from our "benevolant friends" then it is hard to imagine we can overcome the situation on our own. Not impossible. Just hard.

K626
8th November 2011, 18:53
It's all gonna come down to China. It is basically then that is keeping the markets just about liquid with their dollar postions and their investments. IF THEY DECIDE TO BAIL it's all over. Yes there will be no milk and bread in the shops.

K

Lost Soul
8th November 2011, 23:09
China already told France that they will not be buying the three biggest French banks that are in financial trouble. The French representative got angry and insulted the Chinese for that. The Chinese are keeping their money and buying tangibles instead. I know their bank is buying a lot of gold but are keeping hush about it as they don't want to induce a panic that would drive the price up. Gold is $1786 at this writing. A lot of Chinese people are now buying land in America. They're dumping their paper currency for tangibles too.