Solar storm to bombard Earth on Tuesday - largest solar outburst in six years

[astrid]

http://rt.com/files/news/solar-storm-protonic-event-551/solar-shows-heliospheric-observatory.n.jpg

http://rt.com/news/solar-storm-protonic-event-551/

"The largest solar radiation outburst in six years is on its way to Earth and will hit our planet with high-energy atomic particles at around 2 pm GMT,
scientists say, causing possible malfunction of communication satellites and power grids.

­The major impact will occur in the North Pole area: routes of some near North Pole flights have been changed.

The functioning of the ISS will not be affected. Taking into consideration the prognosis for the solar storm,
the ISS crew will not even have to take additional radiation security measures.

Massive ejections of plasma, or coronal mass, from the Sun have often resulted in communication and other satellites,
as well as ground communications facilities failing. They can cause magnetic storms but bring no evident harm to the health of the planet’s population.

The first solar storm this year was registered on January 19 by NASA’s extra-magnetospheric satellites at the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory SOHO,
Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory STEREO, and Advanced Composition Explorer ACE. Occurring after two storm-free months, that storm was ranked a relatively weak grade 5.

The solar tempest heading towards us now is very different. The last time a storm of such force happened was five years ago, in May 2005.

“For 24-25 January, we expect a magnetic storm that with a high probability can be attributed to a powerful class,”
says the head of Russia’s Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation Sergey Gaydash.

Gaydash says the new solar outburst was accompanied by a so-called ‘protonic event’ – a sharp increase in a high-energy proton stream
with speeds of up to 4 million kilometers per hour. Dangerous levels of 10-50 MeV (megaelectronvolt) protons have already been exceeded,
while the levels of 100 MeV protons – the most dangerous for satellites and electronic equipment – has not passed the critical threshold so far."

[Möbius]

I have NASA's 3D Sun App on my iPhone which keeps sending me updates / warnings of CMEs & Solar Flares. They said that this one heading for us is almost an X Class flare (M9). I don't think that we will have to wait very long before an X Class is unleashed in our direction.

Get ready to stock up on food, water and other emergency supplies if there is an X7 or above flare. The largest ever recorded was an X28 on November 4th 2003 (Equivalent to a Magnitude 25 Earthquake on the Richter Scale!). Luckily for us it just missed the Earth.

Mobius

[astrid]

Bumping this to make sure it's seen

[MorningSong]

Here's the Proton Flux graph:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Proton.gif

Wish I knew what the critical threshold for the >100 MeV was (or the others as well)....never the less they are waaaaay higher than normal.

PS: This ties in with this thread on Proton Flux events:

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?16834-Rare-Space-Weather-Event--

Oh!

The CME is on it's way. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed around 15:04 UTC today... I'm watching for signs of the solar storm here:

http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

For the moment, temperature, density and velocity is mostly dead-lined...the calm before the storm.

[seantimberwolf]

Am i correct in thinking this has hit now with no real damage to speak off?
Please correct me if im wrong!

[MorningSong]

No, it isn't over yet..... it's just barely begun!

This is what's coming at us:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c2/512/latest.jpg

[anklebiter]

Am i correct in thinking this has hit now with no real damage to speak off?
Please correct me if im wrong!

It means that all of the popcorn that is stored will pop.

Remember the 'Popcorn' scene from the movie 'Real Genius'?

Free popcorn for everyone! :clap2:

[seantimberwolf]

No, it isn't over yet..... it's just barely begun!

This is what's coming at us:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c2/512/latest.jpg

Thank you MorningSong.
So what is the actual projected damage/outcome of this storm.
Excuse my ignorence but i have yet to find any two pieces of information on this that match it all seems different.
:confused: Sean

[MorningSong]

I saw the auroras in 2005 (?) that reached Italy after that X-flare.... don't know what to expect with this...it actually loooks so much bigger even though classified as an M-flare.

I've been watching this site below...the aurora-zone has more than doubled and gone from burnt yellow to almost orange-red in the past 2 hours!

http://hfradio.org/aurora_globe.html

http://129.128.234.110:8080/ssdp/static_content/ssdp/rt_oval/globe.gif

[seantimberwolf]

Yeah i herd on the MSM this morning it was like a final closing comment on the news about the northern lights will be visible to places further south, ha ha but no reason as too why, or where.
Obviously being into the alternative media i looked it up right away to find it was a CME, but i was astounded that they would not even hint at its potential damage and threat.
Thats the MSM i guess
;)
Sean

[MorningSong]

The K-index has just shot up:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Kp.gif

[ghostrider]

No, it isn't over yet..... it's just barely begun!

This is what's coming at us:

http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/c2/512/latest.jpg

Thank you MorningSong.
So what is the actual projected damage/outcome of this storm.
Excuse my ignorence but i have yet to find any two pieces of information on this that match it all seems different.
:confused: Sean

I made this pic my wallpaper on my laptop. way kewl....

[Zillah]

*bump* *bump* *bump*

[Aetheric Traveler]

Well, should I wrap up all my popcorn in aluminum foil, just in case?

So far, my best indicator of strange and harmful phenomenon are silent and calm, so there's nothing to fear. My cats are sleeping peacefully outside the window on the porch.

If they jump up and hide under the house, then, I'll just wrap myself in aluminum foil with some air holes......... after I smear butter and salt all me over first, of course.

Cheers,
AT

[Ineffable Hitchhiker]

The "snow" on the LASCO C2/LASCO C3 explained.

Solar Proton Flux

http://i40.tinypic.com/302cnqq.gif


The sun is a big mass of energy. The sun produces high energy protons, and the solar wind carries these protons towards our planet. However during solar flare activity, energetic protons are blown violently outwards.. sometimes towards earth. Energetic protons can reach Earth within 30 minutes of a major flare's peak. During such an event (big ones are also known as Solar Proton Events), Earth is showered with highly energetic solar particles (primarily protons) released from the flare site. When these protons arrive at Earth and enter the atmosphere over the polar regions, much enhanced ionization is produced at altitudes below 100 km. Ionization at these low altitudes is particularly effective in absorbing HF radio signals and can render HF communications impossible throughout the polar regions. This effect is called Radio Blackouts. This type of event is also known as a Polar Cap Absorption Event or PCA.
Source (http://www.solarham.com/proton.htm)




An example of Protons hitting the observatory's onboard camera from yesterdays spaceweather. com. (http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=23&month=01&year=2012) article.

http://spaceweather.com/images2012/23jan12/snow.gif?PHPSESSID=p02e8hn4nu0idm412jrct7jic3

[NeverMind]

The solar tempest heading towards us now is very different. The last time a storm of such force happened was five years ago, in May 2005.

I may have misunderstood the expected (?) effects - not that I personally was expecting any - but I don't remember anything memorable of the kind happening in May 2005; and it is all very quiet and smoothly running now.

Not being unpleasant - only reporting. :-)

[MorningSong]

Yes, I agree with you , NeverMind....all is still very quiet.... there was only a little burp of activity so far..... but this sun "fluff" will get here...probably during the next 6 hours....

I did see the auroras in 2005.... I remember as Mars was also in the headlines at the time as being very close to Earth.... was looking at that when the red and green banshees showed up.... was quite incredible! And, no, I don't remember if it had any big effect on the Earth/processes at the time.... I was interested in other things at the time.

So this will probably blow over without having any great "effects" on anyone except for us bozos who like to watch it transpire. This is not the "big" one, no doubt.... it's just a little flirt.

[astrid]

Thank you all for keeping this bumping along
I can't wait to see the light show from this one
It's going to be quite something

special thanks to morning song and IH for adding in the
tech details!!

[MorningSong]

Kp-index just went to red.... >6 Kp expected... G1 storm in progress.... G2 expected by 01:00 UTC

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/archive/current_month.html

S3 radiation storm still in progress

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html


Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 January follow.
Solar flux 136 and estimated planetary A-index 17.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 24 January was 5.

Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level occurred.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level occurred.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected.
Solar radiation storms reaching the S3 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are likely.

[Billy]

Some pictures of Scotland's and unusually Parts of England's evening skys this last couple of nights. enjoy.

13021 13020

13022 13023

13024

I was only allowed to upload 5 pics, many more to see, All pictures were found here.

https://www.google.com/search?ie=utf-8&q=solar+storm+Scotland+nothern+lights&rlz=1V2IPYX_enGB458GB459#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&rlz=1V2IPYX_enGB458GB459&source=hp&q=solar+storm+Scotland+nothern+lights+pictures&psj=1&oq=solar+storm+Scotland+nothern+lights+pictures&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=s&gs_upl=47187l50231l0l52633l9l9l0l5l0l2l3172l7233l8-1.2l3l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&fp=7dbedb4fd6e4fccc&biw=1201&bih=610

[Syd]

There was a blackout in Barrow, Alaska on 1/23/12. Two electric motors caught fire at a College there. This was posted on Kerry Cassidy's blog today.

[astrid]

Thanks Syd!

[NeverMind]

Yes, I agree with you , NeverMind....all is still very quiet.... there was only a little burp of activity so far..... but this sun "fluff" will get here...probably during the next 6 hours....


So this will probably blow over without having any great "effects" on anyone except for us bozos who like to watch it transpire. This is not the "big" one, no doubt.... it's just a little flirt.


Oh, see, I did misunderstand the expected effects, then. If it's mostly about auroras, then I am 99 % sure it will be a "happy day" for aurora-chasers, as SpaceWeather called it. :-)
It thought it was more about possible disruptions and such.


I did see the auroras in 2005.... I remember as Mars was also in the headlines at the time as being very close to Earth.


Mars' closest approach was in August 2003. A summer I will never ever forget. (Nor will many others, I am sure, if not necessarily for the best reasons.)
That was the summer of intense heat in Europe, when thousands of people died, especially elderly people in France.

And Mars was there - not that it had anything to do with the heat. :-)
I used to watch it every night with my mother (who loved it).
An unforgettable summer.
(Which is why I am here waxing about it. :))

[Sidney]

Hm, I don't even have a headache?? (YET) lol this sort of stuff usually affects me physically and emotionally. So far nothing.

[MorningSong]

Sorry for my memory failure..... it was in 2003 that I saw the auroras.... and they are not just "pretty lights in the sky" as some may think...they are signs of charged plasm in our atmosphere, that is radiation that will have an effect on all living creatures..... spaceweather et. al. never talk about that...

Here's news about another black-out...coincidence or caused by the flares?


Lights flicker on after blackout in Brazil
Officials scramble to restore power to 60 million

RIO DE JANEIRO — Heavy rain, lightning and strong winds caused blackouts that left nearly a third of Brazilians — 60 million people — in the dark, officials said Wednesday as they scrambled to restore confidence in the country’s infrastructure before soccer’s 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympics.

The weather made transformers on a vital high-voltage transmission line short-circuit, Brazil’s energy minister said. Two other transmission lines also went down as part of an automatic safety mechanism.

“The problem was exclusively with the transmission lines,” Energy Minister Edison Lobao said.

The blackout cut electricity to 18 of Brazil’s 26 states and left them without power for up to four hours Tuesday night. The federal district that includes the national capital of Brasilia was spared. About 7 million people also lost water service in Sao Paulo. All of Paraguay briefly lost power.

The massive Itaipu dam on the border with Paraguay — the world’s second-largest hydroelectric power producer — was completely shut down for the first time in its 25-year history.

In Brazil’s largest cities of Rio and Sao Paulo, people were trapped in elevators, stranded on commuter trains or stuck in sweltering apartments during unusually hot spring temperatures that have hit the 90s.

Olympic concerns
“I wonder how this could have happened and am worried about what it does to Brazil’s image, especially with the World Cup and Olympics coming up,” said Wesley Aragao, a 24-year-old sailor who waited out the blackout at his parents’ house in northern Rio. “Nobody likes to be left in the dark.”

The Brazilian Olympic Committee would not comment on Tuesday’s blackout, but among the guarantees made to the International Olympic Committee is that Rio will be isolated from the nation’s power system exactly to avoid problems like this. The city will have its own direct energy feed during the games....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33844757/ns/world_news-americas/t/lights-flicker-after-blackout-brazil/#.Tx-WIXKwXXI

[Monitor]

Flights rerouted as massive solar storm hits SYDNEY Morning Herlad(Australia):

Solar radiation from a massive sun storm -- the largest in nearly a decade -- collided with the Earth's atmosphere yesterday, prompting an airline to reroute flights and skywatchers to seek out spectacular light displays.

US carrier Delta Air Lines said it had adjusted flight routes for transpolar journeys between Asia and the United States to avoid problems caused by the radiation storm, a spokesman said.

NASA confirmed the coronal mass ejection (CME) began colliding with Earth's magnetic field around 3pm GMT on Tuesday (2am this morning AEDT), adding that the storm was now being considered the largest since October 2003.

Advertisement: Story continues below Radiation storms are not harmful to humans, on Earth at least, according to the US space agency. They can, however, can affect satellite operations and short wave radio.

The storm's radiation, likely to continue bombarding Earth's atmosphere through Wednesday, and its possible disruption to satellite communications in the polar regions prompted the flight rerouting, airline officials said.

Atlanta-based Delta, the world's second largest airline, said "a handful" of routes had their journey adjusted "based on potential impact" of the solar storm on communications equipment, spokesman Anthony Black said.

Routes from Hong Kong, Shanghai and Seoul took a more southerly route after the solar flare erupted on Sunday.

The airline said it would continue to monitor solar activity before return flights to their normal routes.

Due to the unusual intensity of the photons raining on Earth, the spectacular aurora borealis -- the stunning "Northern Lights" display -- which is often seen closer to the Arctic pole at this time of year, has been seen as far south as Scotland and northern England, and at lower latitudes in the United States.

The event started late Sunday with a moderate-sized solar flare that erupted right near the center of the Sun, said Doug Biesecker, a physicist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Weather Prediction Center.

"The flare itself was nothing spectacular, but it sent off a very fast coronal mass ejection traveling four million miles per hour (6.4 million kilometres per hour)," he said.

Space weather watchers said the best aurora sightings are normally around midnight local time.

Rob Stammes, who runs the Lofoten Polar Light Centre in Lofoten, Norway said the CME's arrival Tuesday had produced a surge in ground currents outside his laboratory.

"This could be a happy day for many aurora watchers," he told aurora tracker website spaceweather.com

AFP

[Black Panther]

Northern Lights: The Aurora Borealis visible over northern England and Scotland:

JQLtgucYL3s

CME Produces Wonderful Northern Lights Show Over UK:

CZsB2EnjCyw

Northern Lights Molde, Norway 2012:

SaG67PmaATY

Mapping the northern lights
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/interactive/2012/jan/23/northern-lights-aurora-borealis-map