Solar flares closing in on Earth - Auroras already arcing across sky in Scandinavia

[KiwiElf]

Solar flares closing in on Earth - Auroras already arcing across sky in Scandinavia
Published: 2 days ago by F. Michael Maloof

F. Michael Maloof, staff writer for WND and G2Bulletin, is a former senior security policy analyst in the office of the secretary of defense.

20136

http://www.wnd.com/2013/01/solar-flares-closing-in-on-earth/

WASHINGTON – The massive sunspot identified as AR1654, which is spewing solar flares, has scientists saying that a portion of a coronal mass ejection is expected to brush Earth’s magnetic field, creating what observers say are bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

Already, scientists say, the CME’s arrival on the solar winds is creating auroras arcing across the skies of northern Scandinavia.

Scientists from the National Aeronautic and Space Administration and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration say this reveals the potential for a solar storm maximum as the sun approaches the height of its latest 11-year cycle this year and next.

Flares are expected to continue into 2020.

Scientists at these space-watch agencies say that if Earth gets a direct hit from one of these solar flares – some of which can be up to four times the size of Earth – the damage could be enormous.

The United States alone would sustain damages up to $2 trillion the first year to the nation’s electric grid-dependent critical infrastructures. In addition, it could leave some 160 million people – more than half the population of the United States – starving because of the collapse of food and fuel delivery systems.

In addition, it could take from four to 10 years to recover.

They say they would expect high casualties because of America’s dependence on electric power, electronics and digital telecommunications and information networks.

Further, there are thousands of so-called SCADAs – Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Data systems, or automated control systems – which control large sections of industry and commerce.

All of these systems are vulnerable to an electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, a high-intensity burst of electromagnetic energy for which solar flares are but one source. Another source would be from a high-altitude nuclear explosion.

Other forms of electromagnetic energy include gamma rays, X-rays, ultraviolet radiation, visible light, infrared radiation, microwaves and radio waves.

SCADAs are referred to as the “ubiquitous robots of the modern age” and are vital to the interdependence of the critical infrastructures that comprise modern society.

According to the congressionally mandated 2008 EMP commission, these automated control systems and their mutual interdependence are two of the most important aspects of America’s modern infrastructures. They pose the greatest vulnerability in all of the country’s infrastructures.

The SCADA systems are especially used in such critical infrastructure applications as electrical transmission and distribution, water management, and oil and gas pipelines.

America is crisscrossed with thousands of miles of pipelines, and if a SCADA were to fail, it could cause explosions in natural gas pipelines and serious leakage.

“The magnetic canopy of sunspot AR 1654 is in a state of unrest, relentlessly shifting, reconnecting and crackling with minor flares,” according to a report from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory.

Scientists described this magnetic canopy as exhibiting eruptions that looked like “flash bulbs at a rock concert.”

“The sunspot’s magnetic field, illuminated by the extreme (Ultra-Violet) glow of hot plasma and flares, has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ configuration,” NASA said. “That means it harbors energy for power X-class eruptions.”

Scientists said the “behemoth” sunspot AR 1654 stretches some 112,000 miles, the equivalent of 14 Earth diameters from end to end.

The flares could create M-class flares and a “risk” of X-class flares, the biggest there are, the scientists said.

NOAA rates the flares as A-class, followed by C, M and X, which is the most severe. A-class is the smallest and, like a Richter scale for earthquakes, each letter represents a 10-fold increase in energy output. X-class is 10 times an M-class and 100 times a C-class.

These solar flares are giant explosions on the sun’s surface that send electromagnetic energy in high-speed particles into space.

A C-class storm and smaller flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that could endanger astronauts.

But the highest risk from such solar storms will be to the national electrical grid system.

The resulting power surges from solar particles could blow out huge transformers which take a long time to replace, even under normal circumstances. In addition, such large transformers no longer are made in the United States but come from abroad. Private utilities do not keep spares of these large transformers due to their tremendous cost.

The situation would be especially precarious for the nation if hundreds would be destroyed, and need replacement, all at once.

NASA estimates that if Earth had a direct hit from a solar flare, the U.S. could lose some 350 such large transformers which would take years to replace.

In spite of the historical knowledge of these various storms over the years, NASA said that the nation’s electric power grids remain vulnerable to disruption and damage by severe space weather and have become even more so in terms of both widespread blackouts and permanent equipment damage requiring long periods of time to restore.

The reason is that electric power and more intricate and sophisticated electronics are the cornerstone of a modern society. This technology is the basis on which all other infrastructures and services depend.

“Collateral effects of a longer-term outage would likely include, for example, disruption of the transportation, communication, banking, and finance systems, and government services; the breakdown of the distribution of potable water owing to pump failure; and the loss of perishable foods and medications because of lack of refrigeration,” according to NASA. “The resulting loss of services for a significant period of time in even one region of the country could affect the entire nation and have international impacts as well.”

According to NOAA, geomagnetic storms not only affect electrical transmission equipment, damage transformers and transmission lines but can leave entire grids without power. In oil and gas pipelines, rapidly fluctuating geomagnetic fields can induce currents into the pipelines. Once that occurs, flow meters in the pipeline can transmit false flow information.

This in turn could lead to a buildup of tremendous pressure that could cause explosions in the pipeline and fires.

With new, more sophisticated technologies being used in more complicated systems, space weather will become all the more important to monitor, predict and prepare for its consequences.


Members of the media who would like to interview Michael Maloof about his book “A Nation Forsaken” should contact media@wnd.com.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2013/01/solar-flares-closing-in-on-earth/#VyY0vfKQ1BeSQGRw.99

[Lazlo]

Sad but true: Many "antiquated" back up safety systems have been retrofitted away because of the reliability and robustness of SCADA systems. The very same ones that are now such cause for concern.

For exapmle, once upon a time you would have had a manual pressure relief valve that could shut off a system in an abnormal operating conduition. Now the back ups require data from a remote sensor and then a program or PLC ladder logic to send a command to change system state.


Have we gotten too smart for our own good?

[WhiteFeather]

Here in NY i have noticed the power company (National Grid) have been updating the wiring on the poles in the last year or so. Been causing serious traffic problems here. Grrrrrrr. Maybe they know something we know as well.

[Nick Matkin]

Well, we better brace ourselves for another Carrington Event (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) - or probably not...

Nick

P.S. Watch this film (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2247254/) before the lights go out!!

[KiwiElf]

Thank you Nick - brief doco on the Carrington Event at link below: :)

Solar Maximum Cycle 24 (When Will the Next Carrington Event Happen?) You Ready?
evetsnalonevetsnalon·21 videos

iGxA6O6IYvc

Uploaded on Jan 13, 2012

What will happen in the next Super Solar event? How will it change our lives? This video describes the effects and consequences of a Carrington level solar event in today's society.

Here is a list of very useful links for you to monitor Space Weather and Solar activity, plus some other helpful stuff.
NOOA Space Weather Prediction Center Home. Excellent place to start and explore
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/index.html
NOAA SWPC Current Alerts and Warnings
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html
Solar Wind Prediction "Ambient"
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/ambient/
Solar Wind Prediction "CME"
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/cme-based/
7 day K Index
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/k-index.html
What do all these numbers mean? Here is the description page of all Space Weather Warnings and their effects
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
A great regularly updated Space Weather Site I check daily! Space Weather.com
http://spaceweather.com/ They always have up to date news and Photos etc.
Another Great site for Solar News and info
http://www.solarham.com/
Another Great site for Solar News and info
http://solarimg.org/artis/
Description of the Carrington Event from NASA
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/
SOHO Images. Get near real time photos and video from here
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/home.html
Cody Ludins Book "When All Hell Breaks Loose"
http://www.amazon.com/When-All-Hell-Breaks-Loose/dp/142360105X
Added 1/16/2012 - Excellent study of what will happen when such an event occurs again. Thanks to rpur441044 for this great link:
http://nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507

[Nick Matkin]

Thanks KiwiElf. That video was a reasonable assessment of the sun's more dangerous side - and not letting the facts get in the way of a hyped story! It was non-sensational.

As someone who has worked in radio communications, I understand the effects of the various flares, but for 99 percent of the public even the worst of those recent ones mentioned would go unnoticed - unless you were involved with HF communications where things can get a bit hectic!

If the video had a failing I think it was that it did not emphasise that such an event is "low risk, high impact". And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. It's the very rapid and extreme rise in electromagnetic fields (from local nuclear explosions) - the well known EMP electromagnetic pulse - that screws up electronics.

The main effect of a Carrington Event (apart from probably frying most satellites) would be to cause the Earth's magnetic field to swing about wildly for a day or two. This induces direct currents (DC) into the hundreds of miles of power lines burning out the transformers which are only designed for AC. That's what has already happened in relatively small areas as the video mentioned. That's also what caused some of the early telegraph equipment to burn out.

Amateur radio communications would probably be the main way communities would stay in touch - at least for the first few days/weeks/months, but that would depend on solar panels/wind turbines to charge batteries. If you have a house with solar panels, I don't think they provide power unless the grid is available to operate the control electronics! But I guess it wouldn't be too difficult to re-engineer them to provide a regulated DC voltage to charge batteries for radio gear at least.

BTW, if you want to see how thin the veneer of human civilization is, try living in a city with no power for three days...

Nick

[panopticon]

Good links KiwiElf.

Some of my personal favourites:
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/5
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/
http://www.solarmonitor.org/
http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/

Evaluations I've found interesting:
Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack (http://www.empcommission.org/)
The EMP threat: fact, fiction, and response (part 1a) (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1549/1)
The EMP threat: fact, fiction, and response (part 1b) (http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1549/2)
Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12507)
Solar Storm Threat Analysis (Impact Article 2007) (http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/SSTA.pdf)

Bill's got a pdf attached to a post about EMP's that was also very interesting (can't find the post, anyone remember it?).
Kind Regards, :yo:
Panopticon

[araucaria]

The next Carrington event was expected to happen on 21st Dec 2012 by astronomers who noticed a similar configuration of unusual planetary alignments. Apparently some other process is involved.

Also I am puzzled by the linking of solar flares to the solar maximum and the expectation of more all the way up until 2020, i.e. down to the next solar minimum and beyond...

[Wind]

IMHO they already know that the electrical grids around the globe will be soon going down and they possibly even might want it.

X0KJ_dxp170

[Joe Akulis]

Pop quiz: Where can you find a quick, small faraday cage in most households that you could use in a pinch to stuff things like cellphones and ipads or such?
Hint: Leave the power cord plugged in, it needs to stay grounded.

(Yes, I realize if the grid goes down, your phone won't be much good for too long. But at least you can play Angry Birds while the neighbors are out killing themselves raiding the supermarket shelves!)

Personally, I would probably try to protect my laptop computer, I think it would fit. There are a lot of web pages that I have saved locally that I consider essential learning material, and I wouldn't want to lose them if the internet goes bye bye. (Yes, I should be printing all that stuff out, I know.)

[sleepy]

xxxxx xxxxxx

[Rocky_Shorz]

I've been watching the last big flare that popped to the right that was shown should be hitting us now, but another smaller flare popped in the same direction and pulled what was to hit us away...

I know the government is worried about a grid hit, but I still believe we are getting help controlling our sun by civilizations far advanced beyond our current technology.

They say we are approaching solar Max but having no activity compared to 2011 and 2012

I'm not an expert, but watch the solar charts daily...

I did notice they pulled back as we were moving towards WW III and they allowed a few flashes to hit us as a warning.

I'm glad they are there and on the side of peace...

[conk]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

[Nick Matkin]

I don't think any serious astronomers 'expected' another Carrington Event on 21 December 2012. No one knew what the exact internal state of the sun was on 1 September 1859. And even if they did, what possible way could it be reproduced on 21 December 2012? These days we may recognise precursor signs, if we knew what they were. On the other hand there may not be any signs.

Neither do I think there is any evidence that the planets have a significant effect on the Sun - how could they? The are minuscule by comparison and tens if not hundreds of millions of miles away. For example, if the sun was the size of a football, the earth would be 2mm in diameter [large grain of salt] and would be located approximately 23.57 meters away from it. (Source: Wikipedia and Windows Calculator)

CMEs, flares, etc. can occur at any time in the solar sunspot cycle, but tend to increase in frequency towards a solar maximum, and some observations suggest they continue to increase after the maximum for a year or so before declining along with the sunspot numbers.

This cycle 24 got off to a very slow start, and continued with much less activity than has been seen for many cycles, and some observers suggest the peak is already over. As far as I have observed, although this lower cycle has been less active than others, those fewer events have not been more powerful than in other cycles.

From the charts it looks as if the Carrington Event occurred well into the downward curve of cycle 10, but I doubt that proves anything. There may have been others since, but they blasted off in other directions, missing Earth so we'd never know.

As has already been said, such an event is unlikely to cause an EMP, so screening electronic devices in fancy metal bags, or in the microwave oven won't be necessary, although it won't do any harm if something is coming and you have time to do it!! (Keeping your electronic items in a microwave oven habitually may be a bad idea...) But they may be useful if you thought you were going to be close to a nuclear blast!

Nick

[Nick Matkin]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

If this were a genuine device and not a TV prank, that would be an interesting device, unless the Chevy Corvette had a particular weakness or had been 'fixed'. How come I've never seen plans for these devices on the internet? Modern cars chocked full of electronics and computers should be even more susceptible I expect...

[DevilPigeon]

Here in NY i have noticed the power company (National Grid) have been updating the wiring on the poles in the last year or so. Been causing serious traffic problems here. Grrrrrrr. Maybe they know something we know as well.

I doubt that very much...

[araucaria]

I don't think any serious astronomers 'expected' another Carrington Event on 21 December 2012. No one knew what the exact internal state of the sun was on 1 September 1859. And even if they did, what possible way could it be reproduced on 21 December 2012? These days we may recognise precursor signs, if we knew what they were. On the other hand there may not be any signs.

Neither do I think there is any evidence that the planets have a significant effect on the Sun - how could they? The are minuscule by comparison and tens if not hundreds of millions of miles away. For example, if the sun was the size of a football, the earth would be 2mm in diameter [large grain of salt] and would be located approximately 23.57 meters away from it. (Source: Wikipedia and Windows Calculator)

CMEs, flares, etc. can occur at any time in the solar sunspot cycle, but tend to increase in frequency towards a solar maximum, and some observations suggest they continue to increase after the maximum for a year or so before declining along with the sunspot numbers.

This cycle 24 got off to a very slow start, and continued with much less activity than has been seen for many cycles, and some observers suggest the peak is already over. As far as I have observed, although this lower cycle has been less active than others, those fewer events have not been more powerful than in other cycles.

From the charts it looks as if the Carrington Event occurred well into the downward curve of cycle 10, but I doubt that proves anything. There may have been others since, but they blasted off in other directions, missing Earth so we'd never know.

As has already been said, such an event is unlikely to cause an EMP, so screening electronic devices in fancy metal bags, or in the microwave oven won't be necessary, although it won't do any harm if something is coming and you have time to do it!! (Keeping your electronic items in a microwave oven habitually may be a bad idea...) But they may be useful if you thought you were going to be close to a nuclear blast!

Nick

I said the planetary configuration was similar: that can be easily established. The planets are much more important than their size (gravity) suggests if you take an electric universe into account. Or if you are an astrologer. But astrologers don't cherrypick their data.

[KiwiElf]

I remember NASA warning us of this several months ago. If I recall correctly. the story told then was "THE BIGGEST solar flare" to hit Earth in about a Century. Jesse Ventura also covered it in one of his earliest docos. The time period they gave was roughly 3-4 weeks after 21 Dec 2012 (which is about now ;)).

StarSeed, I think your assertation "they" might want it to happen is real interesting: complete chaos would follow, martial law, and/OR, alternatively, a good reason to replace the aging technology with something better ;)?

How much are these flares contributing to the increasingly bizarre and severe weather events around the world (and if they continue to increase at this accelerated rate, areas now experiencing intense forest fires, floods or freezing etc, will become uninhabitable in a short few years - not to mention the destruction, cost, disease, homeless, etc).

Interestingly, Alternative 3 directly touched on "catastrophic climactic events" in the near future being the primary reason for all the underground bunkers (Alternative 2). Severe enough that Alternative 3 was to move the "most important people" completely off-planet - allegedly to Mars.

Whatever the reason, we are not adapting fast enough.

[Nick Matkin]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

Another thought... if it was so easy to stop a car (presumably by messing with the ignition electronics) years go with few hundred dollars of kit from Radio Shack, how come the cops never use this stuff on the Bad Guys? It'd save all that messing about with stingers...

Nick

[Tesla_WTC_Solution]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

Another thought... if it was so easy to stop a car (presumably by messing with the ignition electronics) years go with few hundred dollars of kit from Radio Shack, how come the cops never use this stuff on the Bad Guys? It'd save all that messing about with stingers...

Nick
I think it could hit more than one vehicle and cause a lawsuit/accident/stock loss etc. lol ... good question though.

[conk]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

Another thought... if it was so easy to stop a car (presumably by messing with the ignition electronics) years go with few hundred dollars of kit from Radio Shack, how come the cops never use this stuff on the Bad Guys? It'd save all that messing about with stingers...

NickActually there was a device tested a few years ago. A little "car" of sorts was shot out from the front end of the police car and went under the fleeing auto. The device was tethered by wire, so a pulse could be fired that shut down the car. It did not test well and was abandoned. it worked, but could not be aimed well.

[Tesla_WTC_Solution]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

Another thought... if it was so easy to stop a car (presumably by messing with the ignition electronics) years go with few hundred dollars of kit from Radio Shack, how come the cops never use this stuff on the Bad Guys? It'd save all that messing about with stingers...

NickActually there was a device tested a few years ago. A little "car" of sorts was shot out from the front end of the police car and went under the fleeing auto. The device was tethered by wire, so a pulse could be fired that shut down the car. It did not test well and was abandoned. it worked, but could not be aimed well.
too bad tesla is dead and they can't ask him how to do it right the first time

XD

[Nick Matkin]

...And where they got the info that a car's electronics could be affected, god knows. A car is in a shielded metal box. It can get a direct hit by lightning and is usually unaffected. ...Nick

20 years ago the TV program 60 Minutes (Diane Sawyer) did a piece on this subject. She spoke with a fellow that had gone to the electronics store Radio Shack and for a few hundred dollars built a device that when pointed at a running automobile (in this case a Chevy Corvette) made it stop cold. So, if this little gadget with it's puny amount of energy could stop a car I'm guessing an immmense EMF from ole Sol could do the same.

Another thought... if it was so easy to stop a car (presumably by messing with the ignition electronics) years go with few hundred dollars of kit from Radio Shack, how come the cops never use this stuff on the Bad Guys? It'd save all that messing about with stingers...

Nick
I think it could hit more than one vehicle and cause a lawsuit/accident/stock loss etc. lol ... good question though.

Nahh... This bloke I know down the pub told me 'They' don't use it for the same reasons that 'They' don't publicly use anti-gravity, death-ray, faster-than-light or invisibility technologies cos they're saving it up for use on the Really, Really Bad Guys.

So now we know...

Nick