sigma6
22nd July 2013, 03:53
Harry Dent Calling For a Market Crash In 2013 (Cheeseball interview)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCfgx4c-G70
Deflation vs Inflation with Harry Dent Interview with FutureMoneyTrends.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLCJYg9C_jQ
I like Harry. I have been a fan of his views for a few years now. He bases his projections on very basic (if not copious) amounts of statistical compilations. He has been doing this for years. And it is true the more data you collect in this manner, the more solid the numbers become. (predictable patterns) People have to appreciate calculating probabilities is just that. Like a good weatherman. You have to look more at "what they are looking at and "how" they are explaining what might happen, then the actual forecast. It's the raw data, that will give you insight as to how things are coming together and what direction they will ultimately move in... If you do this then you have greater awareness, and if the weather changes you understand that also.
You need your basic economic theory, but not much, it really is worth listening to a few times. And you can actually pick up and clarify your definitions of inflation and deflation as they relate to the real world we are living in right now. He packs a lot in on this subtle and relativistic topic and speaks quickly, but it is an excellent fundamental explanation of these concepts on a macro economic level.
I included the first video because it shows the typical attitude, and to me, exposed just how shallow main stream thinking is on the bigger picture. It is clear their job is to make you focus on a small 'window' and not look too close outside that 'frame'. Watch as they actually try and have 5 other players against Harry, who holds his own. The follow up interview at the Sovereign Society convention is the real Nutshell.
The trick to understanding Economic theory (or at least one of them, imo) is the weather theory explanation again. Understanding that the ideas they are talking about are very dynamic. They are in constant motion. So you have to keep an eye on several factors to get a good feel. The big things to look at today seem to be private and public debt, the amount of QE stimulation (money printing) Bond markets, if you understand them, import/exports, bubbles, ...employment and interest rates in general, as both are predictable, with interest rates essentially 0 with downward pressure (he will explain why) in order to understand ultimately the whys and hows of inflation vs deflation... The big question everyone is really pushing back and forth about... I like Harry's argument. It is sound and makes sense and explains what we are seeing.
He touches on, but never quite gets into what is essentially the 'wild card' in the first interview, but more or less gets cut off (figures...) and that is the Government manipulation via printing money (no surprise there) But he explains why the Government does what it does (in the second interview) and why it is bad and unsustainable. Basically because they are shortsighted, operating on 4 year presidential cycles and have put themselves in a hole and the alternative is unthinkable to them (in essence they don't have a real answer) The result of being told what to do all these years by the Fed Reserve perhaps???
I think another thing that he doesn't touch on is that since one government is doing it, other governments do it. No one wants to be the first to crash. So it really is a game of global musical chairs. Since the first to crash is in danger of getting all their assets stolen... or at least in my figuring... this is the game.
And of course the even bigger picture is the Banks, they are the real masters of this game manipulating all these things behind the scenes, think Libor scandal, banking scandals, loan scandals, etc, etc,...
As far as application. He has a pretty decent follow up at the end that ties it all together. Pretty decent Nutshell on Inflation / Deflation that will help you understand how there can be two opposing opinions, and why one is 'false' and the other 'more true'.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCfgx4c-G70
Deflation vs Inflation with Harry Dent Interview with FutureMoneyTrends.com
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLCJYg9C_jQ
I like Harry. I have been a fan of his views for a few years now. He bases his projections on very basic (if not copious) amounts of statistical compilations. He has been doing this for years. And it is true the more data you collect in this manner, the more solid the numbers become. (predictable patterns) People have to appreciate calculating probabilities is just that. Like a good weatherman. You have to look more at "what they are looking at and "how" they are explaining what might happen, then the actual forecast. It's the raw data, that will give you insight as to how things are coming together and what direction they will ultimately move in... If you do this then you have greater awareness, and if the weather changes you understand that also.
You need your basic economic theory, but not much, it really is worth listening to a few times. And you can actually pick up and clarify your definitions of inflation and deflation as they relate to the real world we are living in right now. He packs a lot in on this subtle and relativistic topic and speaks quickly, but it is an excellent fundamental explanation of these concepts on a macro economic level.
I included the first video because it shows the typical attitude, and to me, exposed just how shallow main stream thinking is on the bigger picture. It is clear their job is to make you focus on a small 'window' and not look too close outside that 'frame'. Watch as they actually try and have 5 other players against Harry, who holds his own. The follow up interview at the Sovereign Society convention is the real Nutshell.
The trick to understanding Economic theory (or at least one of them, imo) is the weather theory explanation again. Understanding that the ideas they are talking about are very dynamic. They are in constant motion. So you have to keep an eye on several factors to get a good feel. The big things to look at today seem to be private and public debt, the amount of QE stimulation (money printing) Bond markets, if you understand them, import/exports, bubbles, ...employment and interest rates in general, as both are predictable, with interest rates essentially 0 with downward pressure (he will explain why) in order to understand ultimately the whys and hows of inflation vs deflation... The big question everyone is really pushing back and forth about... I like Harry's argument. It is sound and makes sense and explains what we are seeing.
He touches on, but never quite gets into what is essentially the 'wild card' in the first interview, but more or less gets cut off (figures...) and that is the Government manipulation via printing money (no surprise there) But he explains why the Government does what it does (in the second interview) and why it is bad and unsustainable. Basically because they are shortsighted, operating on 4 year presidential cycles and have put themselves in a hole and the alternative is unthinkable to them (in essence they don't have a real answer) The result of being told what to do all these years by the Fed Reserve perhaps???
I think another thing that he doesn't touch on is that since one government is doing it, other governments do it. No one wants to be the first to crash. So it really is a game of global musical chairs. Since the first to crash is in danger of getting all their assets stolen... or at least in my figuring... this is the game.
And of course the even bigger picture is the Banks, they are the real masters of this game manipulating all these things behind the scenes, think Libor scandal, banking scandals, loan scandals, etc, etc,...
As far as application. He has a pretty decent follow up at the end that ties it all together. Pretty decent Nutshell on Inflation / Deflation that will help you understand how there can be two opposing opinions, and why one is 'false' and the other 'more true'.