Cidersomerset
27th September 2013, 06:47
http://static.bbci.co.uk/frameworks/barlesque/2.48.3/desktop/3.5/img/blq-blocks_grey_alpha.png
27 September 2013 Last updated at 01:24
IPCC climate report: Scientist's worry ahead of releaseLatest
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Stockholm
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70132000/jpg/_70132912_earth-limb-945x400_nasa.jpg
The Moon hovers Earth's atmosphere as seen from the International Space Station
Scientists are concerned it will be difficult to stay below the 2 degrees Celsius target
The latest update on the state of the world's climate will be released on Friday in
Stockholm, Sweden.
Scientists and government officials from 195 countries have been meeting all week
ahead of the publication from the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).The report will detail the physical evidence behind global warming.
Delegates were discussing late into the night on Thursday the final wording of a
summary for policymakers.Drafts of this dense, complex document seen by the BBC
indicate that scientists are more convinced than ever that the planet is warming and
that humans are responsible for the majority of it, especially over the past 50 years.
This message is likely to be backed up by improved observations of changes in polar
ice, sea level and temperature. However, some projections of future temperature rise
are likely to be lowered from the previous IPCC report in 2007. This is because of a
hiatus, or pause, in warming that has occurred since 1998.
Nonetheless, Prof Jean Pascal van Ypersele, the vice-chairman of the IPCC, emphasised
that the panel's statements were robust, and raised the concern that the target of
staying below a 2 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures was becoming
increasingly difficult to attain.
"Any reasonable scientist has to be more worried if they have to answer the question of
how to stabilise climate to a level of warming that is not considered dangerous by
policymakers," he told BBC News. Politicians took a decision in 2009 at the Copenhagen
climate conference to try to limit long-term global average temperature increases to 2C.
This, it was said, was the point above which dangerous changes to the planet would
occur.Prof van Ypersele said the world passed a significant milestone on the road to a 2
degrees Celsius rise when the concentration in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gas
carbon dioxide went through the 400 parts per million mark last May.
"That number is a measure of the duvet we have around the Earth. As long as its
thickness is increasing, I don't see how we can't be worried that it will become more
and more difficult to achieve any stabilisation target," he said.
Taking place in a former brewery, the talks were said to be making slow progress but
delegates expressed optimism that the summary document would be published on time
on Friday.There have been long discussions at the meeting about the impact of the
pause in temperature rises over the past 15 years, with reports of some governments
attempting to play down this hiatus. One delegate told me the language was being
clarified but that "nothing is being hidden under the carpet".
Much of the time has been taken up with making the summary easier to understand.
Another delegate said that there was a great focus on avoiding misinterpretation: "It
still won't be a text my mother would read and happily understand," this delegate
said. "But it will be more clear than when we came here."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24281865
=======================================================
http://static.bbci.co.uk/frameworks/barlesque/2.48.3/desktop/3.5/img/blq-blocks_grey_alpha.png
Climate sceptics claim warming pause backs their viewMatt McGrath
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, BBC News, The Netherlands
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70120000/jpg/_70120941_70120940.jpg
Hurricane Sandy Come hell or... An increased likelihood of extreme weather events
is one predicted outcome of global warming, but some dispute the scale of
expected effects In the run up to a key global warming report, those sceptical of
mainstream opinion on climate change claim they are "winning" the argument.
They say a slowing of temperature rises in the past 15 years means the threat from
climate change is exaggerated. But a leading member of the UN's panel on climate
change said the views of sceptics were "wishful thinking".
IPCC
The pause in warming was a distraction, he said, from the growing scientific certainty
about long-term impacts.Prof Jean Pascal van Ypersele spoke to BBC News ahead of the
release of a six-yearly status report into global warming by the UN panel known as the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.Scientists and government
representatives are currently meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, going through the dense,
31-page summary of the state of the physical science behind climate change.
When it is released on Friday, the report is likely to state with even greater certainty
than before that the present-day, rapid warming of the planet is man-made.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70121000/jpg/_70121008_70121007.jpg
Climate change could profoundly impact the Netherlands, but sceptics remain influential
there But climate sceptics have focused their attention on the references to a pause or
hiatus in the increase in global temperatures since 1998. The sceptics believe that this
slowdown is the most solid evidence yet that mainstream computer simulations of the
Earth's climate - climate models - are wrong.These computer simulations are used to
study the dynamics of the Earth's climate and make projections about future
temperature change.
"The sceptics now have a feeling of being on the winning side of the debate thanks
to the pause," said Marcel Crok, a Dutch author who accepts the idea that human
activities warm the planet, but is sceptical about the scale of the effect.
"You are now starting to see a normalisation of climate science. Suddenly
mainstream researchers, who all agree that greenhouse gases play a huge role,
start to disagree about the cause of the pause.
"For me this is a relief, it is finally opening up again and this is good."
The view that the sceptics have positively impacted the IPCC is supported by Prof Arthur
Petersen, who is a member of the Dutch government team currently examining the report.
"The sceptics are good for the IPCC and the whole process is really flourishing because
of this interaction over the past decades," he told BBC News.
"Our best climate researchers are typically very close to really solid, sceptical scientists.
In this sense scepticism is not necessarily a negative term."
Others disagree.
Bart Verheggen is an atmospheric scientist and blogger who supports the mainstream
view of global warming. He said that sceptics have discouraged an open scientific
debate.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70101000/jpg/_70101448_img_6902.jpg
Crok Dutch writer Marcel Crok is sceptical about the sensitivity of the
atmosphere to carbon emissions
"When scientists start to notice that their science is being distorted in public by these
people who say they are the champions of the scientific method, that could make
mainstream researchers more defensive.
"Scientists probably think twice now about writing things down. They probably think
twice about how this could be twisted by contrarians."
Sensitive debate
In 2007, the IPCC defined the range for what's termed "equilibrium climate sensitivity".
This term refers to the likely span of temperatures that would occur following a doubling
of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The panel's last report said temperatures
were likely to rise within the range of 2C to 4.5C with a best estimate of 3C.
The new report is believed to indicate a range of 1.5C to 4.5C with no best estimate
indicated.
Continue reading the main story
The Dutch approach to sceptics
With around 20% of the country under sea level, the Dutch have a keen interest in
anything that might affect their environment, such as climate change.
But scepticism about the human influence on global warming has been growing in the
Netherlands, according to research from the OECD. In a country where consensus is a
key word, the government has taken a more inclusive approach to climate dissenters.
To that end, they have funded Marcel Crok to carry out a sceptical analysis of the IPCC
report. In an effort to build bridges between sceptics and the mainstream they are also
funding an initiative called climatedialogue.org which serves as a platform for debate on
the science of global warming.
Although that might not appear like much of a change, many sceptics believe it exposes
a critical flaw.
"In the last year, we have seen several studies showing that climate sensitivity is
actually much less than we thought for the last 30 years," said Marcel Crok.
"And these studies indicate that our real climate shows a sensitivity of between 1.5C
and 2C, but the climate models on which these future doom scenarios are based warm
up three degrees under a doubling of CO2."
But other researchers who are familiar with the text believe that the sceptics are
reading too much into a single figure.
"Some of what the sceptics are saying is either wishful thinking or totally dishonest,"
Prof van Ypersele, who is vice-chair of the IPCC, told BBC News.
"It is just a change in a lower border [of the range of temperature rise]. Even if this
turns out to be the real sensitivity, instead of making the challenge extremely,
extremely, extremely difficult to meet, it is only making it extremely, extremely difficult.
"Is that such a big change?"
Prof van Ypersele points out that many other aspects of the forthcoming report are
likely to give greater certainty to the scale of impacts of a warming world. The
predictions for sea level rise are likely to be considerably strengthened from 2007.
There is also likely to be a clearer understanding of the state of sea ice.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24233643
27 September 2013 Last updated at 01:24
IPCC climate report: Scientist's worry ahead of releaseLatest
Environment correspondent, BBC News, Stockholm
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70132000/jpg/_70132912_earth-limb-945x400_nasa.jpg
The Moon hovers Earth's atmosphere as seen from the International Space Station
Scientists are concerned it will be difficult to stay below the 2 degrees Celsius target
The latest update on the state of the world's climate will be released on Friday in
Stockholm, Sweden.
Scientists and government officials from 195 countries have been meeting all week
ahead of the publication from the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).The report will detail the physical evidence behind global warming.
Delegates were discussing late into the night on Thursday the final wording of a
summary for policymakers.Drafts of this dense, complex document seen by the BBC
indicate that scientists are more convinced than ever that the planet is warming and
that humans are responsible for the majority of it, especially over the past 50 years.
This message is likely to be backed up by improved observations of changes in polar
ice, sea level and temperature. However, some projections of future temperature rise
are likely to be lowered from the previous IPCC report in 2007. This is because of a
hiatus, or pause, in warming that has occurred since 1998.
Nonetheless, Prof Jean Pascal van Ypersele, the vice-chairman of the IPCC, emphasised
that the panel's statements were robust, and raised the concern that the target of
staying below a 2 degrees Celsius rise in global temperatures was becoming
increasingly difficult to attain.
"Any reasonable scientist has to be more worried if they have to answer the question of
how to stabilise climate to a level of warming that is not considered dangerous by
policymakers," he told BBC News. Politicians took a decision in 2009 at the Copenhagen
climate conference to try to limit long-term global average temperature increases to 2C.
This, it was said, was the point above which dangerous changes to the planet would
occur.Prof van Ypersele said the world passed a significant milestone on the road to a 2
degrees Celsius rise when the concentration in the atmosphere of the greenhouse gas
carbon dioxide went through the 400 parts per million mark last May.
"That number is a measure of the duvet we have around the Earth. As long as its
thickness is increasing, I don't see how we can't be worried that it will become more
and more difficult to achieve any stabilisation target," he said.
Taking place in a former brewery, the talks were said to be making slow progress but
delegates expressed optimism that the summary document would be published on time
on Friday.There have been long discussions at the meeting about the impact of the
pause in temperature rises over the past 15 years, with reports of some governments
attempting to play down this hiatus. One delegate told me the language was being
clarified but that "nothing is being hidden under the carpet".
Much of the time has been taken up with making the summary easier to understand.
Another delegate said that there was a great focus on avoiding misinterpretation: "It
still won't be a text my mother would read and happily understand," this delegate
said. "But it will be more clear than when we came here."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24281865
=======================================================
http://static.bbci.co.uk/frameworks/barlesque/2.48.3/desktop/3.5/img/blq-blocks_grey_alpha.png
Climate sceptics claim warming pause backs their viewMatt McGrath
By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, BBC News, The Netherlands
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70120000/jpg/_70120941_70120940.jpg
Hurricane Sandy Come hell or... An increased likelihood of extreme weather events
is one predicted outcome of global warming, but some dispute the scale of
expected effects In the run up to a key global warming report, those sceptical of
mainstream opinion on climate change claim they are "winning" the argument.
They say a slowing of temperature rises in the past 15 years means the threat from
climate change is exaggerated. But a leading member of the UN's panel on climate
change said the views of sceptics were "wishful thinking".
IPCC
The pause in warming was a distraction, he said, from the growing scientific certainty
about long-term impacts.Prof Jean Pascal van Ypersele spoke to BBC News ahead of the
release of a six-yearly status report into global warming by the UN panel known as the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.Scientists and government
representatives are currently meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, going through the dense,
31-page summary of the state of the physical science behind climate change.
When it is released on Friday, the report is likely to state with even greater certainty
than before that the present-day, rapid warming of the planet is man-made.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70121000/jpg/_70121008_70121007.jpg
Climate change could profoundly impact the Netherlands, but sceptics remain influential
there But climate sceptics have focused their attention on the references to a pause or
hiatus in the increase in global temperatures since 1998. The sceptics believe that this
slowdown is the most solid evidence yet that mainstream computer simulations of the
Earth's climate - climate models - are wrong.These computer simulations are used to
study the dynamics of the Earth's climate and make projections about future
temperature change.
"The sceptics now have a feeling of being on the winning side of the debate thanks
to the pause," said Marcel Crok, a Dutch author who accepts the idea that human
activities warm the planet, but is sceptical about the scale of the effect.
"You are now starting to see a normalisation of climate science. Suddenly
mainstream researchers, who all agree that greenhouse gases play a huge role,
start to disagree about the cause of the pause.
"For me this is a relief, it is finally opening up again and this is good."
The view that the sceptics have positively impacted the IPCC is supported by Prof Arthur
Petersen, who is a member of the Dutch government team currently examining the report.
"The sceptics are good for the IPCC and the whole process is really flourishing because
of this interaction over the past decades," he told BBC News.
"Our best climate researchers are typically very close to really solid, sceptical scientists.
In this sense scepticism is not necessarily a negative term."
Others disagree.
Bart Verheggen is an atmospheric scientist and blogger who supports the mainstream
view of global warming. He said that sceptics have discouraged an open scientific
debate.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/70101000/jpg/_70101448_img_6902.jpg
Crok Dutch writer Marcel Crok is sceptical about the sensitivity of the
atmosphere to carbon emissions
"When scientists start to notice that their science is being distorted in public by these
people who say they are the champions of the scientific method, that could make
mainstream researchers more defensive.
"Scientists probably think twice now about writing things down. They probably think
twice about how this could be twisted by contrarians."
Sensitive debate
In 2007, the IPCC defined the range for what's termed "equilibrium climate sensitivity".
This term refers to the likely span of temperatures that would occur following a doubling
of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The panel's last report said temperatures
were likely to rise within the range of 2C to 4.5C with a best estimate of 3C.
The new report is believed to indicate a range of 1.5C to 4.5C with no best estimate
indicated.
Continue reading the main story
The Dutch approach to sceptics
With around 20% of the country under sea level, the Dutch have a keen interest in
anything that might affect their environment, such as climate change.
But scepticism about the human influence on global warming has been growing in the
Netherlands, according to research from the OECD. In a country where consensus is a
key word, the government has taken a more inclusive approach to climate dissenters.
To that end, they have funded Marcel Crok to carry out a sceptical analysis of the IPCC
report. In an effort to build bridges between sceptics and the mainstream they are also
funding an initiative called climatedialogue.org which serves as a platform for debate on
the science of global warming.
Although that might not appear like much of a change, many sceptics believe it exposes
a critical flaw.
"In the last year, we have seen several studies showing that climate sensitivity is
actually much less than we thought for the last 30 years," said Marcel Crok.
"And these studies indicate that our real climate shows a sensitivity of between 1.5C
and 2C, but the climate models on which these future doom scenarios are based warm
up three degrees under a doubling of CO2."
But other researchers who are familiar with the text believe that the sceptics are
reading too much into a single figure.
"Some of what the sceptics are saying is either wishful thinking or totally dishonest,"
Prof van Ypersele, who is vice-chair of the IPCC, told BBC News.
"It is just a change in a lower border [of the range of temperature rise]. Even if this
turns out to be the real sensitivity, instead of making the challenge extremely,
extremely, extremely difficult to meet, it is only making it extremely, extremely difficult.
"Is that such a big change?"
Prof van Ypersele points out that many other aspects of the forthcoming report are
likely to give greater certainty to the scale of impacts of a warming world. The
predictions for sea level rise are likely to be considerably strengthened from 2007.
There is also likely to be a clearer understanding of the state of sea ice.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24233643