"Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?

[Bob]

The coronal hole has been building and is squarely earth facing.. by the 7th was the time table for the particle stream to reach earth.. It is arriving a bit early..


http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06dec15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm


Earth is entering a stream of solar wind flowing from a broad coronal hole on the sun.

First contact with the stream on Dec. 5th sparked bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.

[Bob]

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Strong auroral activity with solar wind at:
speed: 630.4 km/sec
density: 1.0 protons/cm3

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.4 nT
Bz: 1.3 nT south (allowing particle entry into the earth's geomagnetic field)

http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07dec15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there is a strong geometrical and large coronal hole earthfacing (and it is streaming particles towards earth)

Radio Sun Microwave levels are low to moderate.
10.7 cm flux: 102 sfu

ICELAND aurora


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/JAsup3nAsna-AskarsdAsup3ttir-IMG_8839-2_1449523366_lg.jpg

[Bob]

Going to be a bit of a bumpy ride..

Solar wind
speed: 401.7 km/sec
density: 14.0 protons/cm3

Solar storm G1 in progress.

A CME struck the geomagnetic field yesterday 19th and the bell has been ringing.

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 15.9 nT
Bz: 15.1 nT south - strong and south oriented allowing for particle entry in to earth's geomagnetic field.

Rapid field "flips"..


http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif

Microwave solar radio field strength
10.7 cm flux: 119 sfu - medium to LOW


http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20dec15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

A large polar solar coronal hole with geometry is forming, but is not fully earthfacing.

Aurora activity currently is HIGH

Anchorage AK

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Daryll-Vispo-IMG_1157-5_1450625643_lg.jpg

Fairbanks, AK

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ayumi-Y.-Bakken-3H5A9192_1450605800.jpg

[Bob]

CME expected was a dud. The current Coronal Holes though have been streaming strongly and particles are expected to evoke more geomagnetic instability the 31st through the 1st. The potential for auroral activity is high, and instability in powergrids, internet communications, satellite and GPS information maybe affected.


http://spaceweather.com/images2015/31dec15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 16.6 nT
Bz: 15.8 nT south allowing for particle influx into the geomagnetic field

Radio Sun microwave bombardment is LOW
10.7 cm flux: 102 sfu

Sunspot activity - both prime sunspot's overall magnetic field has decayed and no longer poses a threat for very strong earthbound flares.

[Bob]

Solar particle induced level 6 storm in progress..

The coronal hole particle stream has now induced a strong geomagnetic storm.

There is a strong auroral pattern showing up currently.


http://chanlo.com/images/12-31-15.jpg

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm


Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 13.5 nT
Bz: 12.9 nT south allowing for particle entry into the earth's geomagnetic field

[Bob]

Coronal hole squarely earthfacing, and particle density is increasing


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/05jan16/ch_strip.jpg

The microwave bombardment from the sunspots is minimal:
Radio microwave Sun
10.7 cm flux: 95 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.2 nT
Bz: 1.3 nT north - is allowing for some protection from the particle storm

Notice the dual polarity geometry in the coronal holes


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/05jan16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

[Bob]

Coronal hole activity resuming, earthfacing

Solar wind speed about normal but with a strong proton count.
speed: 372.8 km/sec
density: 12.6 protons/cm3

"CME hit Earth's magnetic field on Jan. 18th at ~2100 UT. The gentle impact did not cause a full-fledged geomagnetic storm"

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet currently
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/19jan16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Truls-Tiller-Nordlys-Ersfjorden_1453169280_lg.jpg

(view from the harbor in Ersfjorden)

[Bob]

Strong coronal hole is forming.

The expected CME for the 14th still has not reached earth's geomagnetic field.

Proton count is moderately UP, and the geomagnetic field is currently not stable.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/14feb16/ch_strip.png

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/15feb16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

[Bob]

Here comes the sun (doo doo doo doo) Here comes the sun, and I say. It's all right. Little darling, it's been a long cold lonely winter. Little darling, - Beatles

Solar proton count is up

Solar wind
speed: 335.2 km/sec
density: 10.6 protons/cm3

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/24feb16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Auroral geometry appears to be tracking on the coronal hole geometry once again


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Notanee-Bourassa-Aurora-2015-251-231637_1456178032_lg.jpg

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Tom-Arne-Moldenaes-_8107610_1455981211.jpg

[Bob]

ODD Auroras - (should not be happening)

Solar wind speed slightly slower than usual but proton particle density is UP
speed: 389.2 km/sec
density: 18.1 protons/cm3

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 16.8 nT
Bz: 8.3 nT south

The auroral oval is STRONG although the magnetic fields are stable. This is a bit odd. Most of Alaska for instance is under an aurora, and the southern aurora oval is also strong.

The current coronal hole pattern is NIL, very stable, more stable than many months before in this current solar cycle.. ODD.

TWO small geometrical regions are earth facing.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/05mar16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

This is what it looked like up in Churchill Manitoba Canada:


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Aurora-over-Snowy-Trees-March-3-2016_1457119054.jpg



This below is from Churchill also, when the KP index was ZERO. Aurora's just don't normally happen when there is no field instability. So this is odd. It was noted that the polarity of the incoming solar particle storm is OPPOSITE what it normally would be. That could be a contribution.


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Aurora-Behind-Northern-Studies-Centre-March-2016_1457209283.jpg

[Bob]

Auroras over England http://cc.amazingcounters.com/counter.php?i=3190880&c=9572953- did you see the green glow?

"It was an absolutely amazing display here in the north of England," reports Gordon. "The entire northern skyline was lit up! You could clearly make out pillars by eye, which was amazing."


NOAA forecasters say there is a 50% chance of more geomagnetic storms on March 7th as Earth moves deeper into the solar wind stream. The magnetic polarity of the stream is negative--a condition which favors auroras.

A stream of high-speed solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, and this is causing geomagnetic storms around the Arctic Circle. So far, Northern Lights have descended as far south as Germany in Europe and Massachusetts in the USA.

(SpaceWeather dot com)

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.2 nT
Bz: 1.2 nT south

Cape Cod MA (USA)


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chris-Cook-aurora-030616_1457325409_lg.jpg

Newcastle upon Tyne, UK

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/David-Whinham-IMG_4012_1457318283_lg.jpg

Germany

http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Heiko-Ulbricht-Polarlicht-mittel-04_1457311477_lg.jpg

[Bob]

Solar wind
speed: 343.2 km/sec
density: 69.7 protons/cm3

Proton count is very high currently.

But no solar storm-like fluctuation is happening, the K index is relatively LOW, and stable..
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

That is odd. This large a quantity of solar protons should be allowing for strong aurora, but the auroral oval is thin and stable in the north.. also odd. The southern hemisphere antarctic auroral oval IS strong however, meaning the angle of proton influx appears to be directed not directly (equally) across the planet.

There is a hint of coronal hole formation with geometry starting to form:


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/10mar16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Otherwise the solar image as seen above is very calm.

There could be a solar filament starting to form, diagonally in-between the two small coronal holes and that could be responsible for the increase in particle activity.

There is an article extract which is noteworthy, pointing out the southernly increase in aurora activity:


Abstract. The semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity is well established in geomagnetic data. Its explanation has remained elusive, however. We propose, simply, that it is caused by a semiannual variation in the effective southward component of the interplanetary field.

The southward field arises because the interplanetary field is ordered in the solar equatorial coordinate system, whereas the interaction with the magnetosphere is controlled by a magnetospheric system.

Several simple models utilizing this effective modulation of the southward component of the interplanetary field are examined. One of these closely predicts the observed phase and amplitude of the semiannual variation.

This model assumes that northward interplanetary fields are noninteracting and that the interaction with southward fields is ordered in solar magnetospheric coordinates.

The prediction of the diurnal variation of the strength of the interaction at the magnetopause by this model, does not, however, match the diurnal -variation of geomagnetic activity as derived from ground-based data. However, predictions of the dependence of geomagnetic activity on the polarity of the interplanetary magnetic field and a 22-year cycle in geomagnetic activity are confined by studies of ground-based data.

It appears that the mechanism controlling the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity has been identified but that a quantitative model must await further refinements in our knowledge of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling.

(Source (http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/personnel/russell/papers/40/))

Example of southern aurora - New Zealand


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Minoru-Yoneto-IMG_3201_R_1457370302_lg.jpg

[Bob]

Two small coronal holes closed and a large one opened, in the area where the diagonal 'filament-like" pattern was appearing. Assumed particle storm to reach earth by 16th/17th.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/12mar16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

No strong northern hemisphere auroral oval is showing up. There is a wide moderate southern hemisphere auroral oval corresponding to the tilt and angle of the previous small CME hit.

Solar wind about normal, with a slightly smaller proton particle count.
speed: 486.2 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3

[Bob]

Coronal hole continues to grow, while the earth starts to move into the earliest stages of touching a "co-rotating interaction region", which will most likely introduce instability field wise.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/14mar16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Solar proton count is elevated -

Solar wind
speed: 368.2 km/sec
density: 8.8 protons/cm3

Friday's aurora over Fairbanks, AK


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Martin-Guth-aurora-6506a--3-11-16_1457750090_lg.jpg

impressive !

[Bob]

A squarely earthfacing coronal hole currently active:


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/25mar16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/25mar16/ch2.png

Space particle prediction center mentions a strong potential for particle field "bunching" (with instability) for a period of between the 25th and 28th of March. Particle stream effects predicted to be creating a geomagnetic disturbance as early as the 28th of March.

[Bob]

Co-rotating Interaction region is starting to create local effects with earth's geomagnetic field - starting with the solar wind update..

Solar wind
speed: 363.1 km/sec
density: 8.4 protons/cm3

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.9 nT
Bz: 0.5 nT south - this allows for easier solar particle stream entry and field instability

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/26mar16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Expect more instability for the next 3 days would be a likely prediction.

[Bob]

Watching paint drying.... hmm

Sunspot activity - NIL - 14 sunspots with 1 sunspot being significantly visible, but harbours NO significant flare potential..


hDpVHcmA4rE


When CMEs hit (Coronal Mass Ejections from a sunspot field collapse on the Sun), the planets in our own solar system, the planets themselves emit low-frequency radio waves as their magnetic fields reverberate from the impact.

The radio emissions come from auroras circling the magnetic poles. Any planet with a magnetic field can produce this kind of “CME echo.”

Coronal mass ejections, or CMEs, are billion-ton clouds of plasma that billow away from the sun in the aftermath of magnetic explosions—often, but not always, in tandem with a solar flare. CMEs hitting Earth can spark geomagnetic storms and Northern Lights.

CMEs often announce themselves with a burst of radio waves. The emissions are caused by shock waves in the leading edge of the cloud, which plow through the sun’s atmosphere at supersonic velocity.

Today, NASA has a fleet of satellites in space to observe these explosions on the sun.

Solar wind speed:

speed: 374.8 km/sec
density: 4.7 protons/cm3

Space particle stream prediction - solar particles to be varied, expecting a CIR (Counter-rotating Interaction Region) today.. Auroral activity is possible and changes to low frequency radio communications.

Coronal hole present and earthfacing, emitting a particle stream

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/01apr16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

[Bob]

Solar storm in progress

Solar wind
speed: 395.2 km/sec
density: 31.3 protons/cm3


Earth has entered a CIR (Counter-rotating Interaction Region) that has a particle increase, resulting in earth's geomagnetic field experiencing bumps and oscillations. A potential for a G2 level storm exists.

Total Sunspot number is down to 11, with only ONE larger sunspot (without CME potential) earthfacing.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/02apr16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Above - the dark spots indicate the locations of coronal holes - the bright spots show the locations of sunspots.

[Bob]

Solar particle stream affecting the geomagnetics of earth.. The energy gets absorbed and has to go somewhere, apparently geological tectonic plates SLIP, resulting in quakes, eruptions.. Larger storms can disrupt satellites, electric and communications power grids, and even train tracks can be affected (long antenna's basically)..

Solar wind
speed: 414.9 km/sec
density: 10.2 protons/cm3

Large coronal holes are earthfacing and streaming particles.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/16apr16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

[Bob]

Particle stream increasing - (still not in the main stream yet which is predicted to appear tomorrow).. Large coronal hole with energetic particles squarely earthfacing


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/17apr16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Magnetic geometry shown on sun's surface below:


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/16apr16/ch3.jpg

Solar wind
speed: 390.9 km/sec
density: 16.4 protons/cm3

Current Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

[Bob]

The 'quiet' sunspot, AR2529 erupted with a CME and strong M-class flare 00:39 UT 18 April 2016 (close to an X-Class level), creating a strong glancing UV burst which was felt in the ionosphere of earth (disruption of low band radio).. It is not earthfacing currently.


http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/17apr16/hmi1898.gif

[Bob]

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/25apr16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Small geometrically shaped coronal hole with minimal solar particle stream emission earthward.

Solar wind - slightly above normal speed, with a lower than normal particle density
speed: 502.9 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3

Sunspot AR2533 has a stable magnetic field that poses no threat for strong solar flares.

Total Sunspot number: 46 (including two larger, and many small)

Microwave Radio Sun emission (related to active sunspots) - minimum to low
10.7 cm flux: 82 sfu

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

Auroral activity is turning MINIMAL even with coronal hole particle streams hitting earth.

From Antarctica:


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Greig-Lawson-AI1J1199-Edit_1461583643_lg.jpg

[Bob]

K5 K6 geomagnetic storms have been present in the last 18 hours - currently under a K5.

(Coronal holo particle stream plus entering a co-rotating region)


http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

Coronal hole is earthfacing and sending particle streams


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/02may16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Resultant Auroral activity at Marquette Michigan (rather south for the activity, but matches K6 activity)


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Shawn-Malone-_DSC2375sw_1462169189_lg.jpg

[Bob]

May 20th - a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth.

This is a transition zone between slow and fast moving streams of solar wind.

Strong magnetic fields and density gradients would exist in this region.

Currently proton count is UP solar wind speed is about normal

448.3 km/sec
density: 9.1 protons/cm3

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/20may16/hmi200.gif

Minimal sunspots present, and solar activity is minimal.

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet

Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.0 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT north

Large coronal holes are earthfacing:

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/20may16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

On May 17th using a shortwave radio telescope located in New Mexico, pointed at Jupiter a "strong radio storm" was monitored.

Listen HERE: http://spaceweather.com/images2016/20may16/jMay172016_0104UT21.22_Ashcraft.mp3

[Bob]

Zero sunspots - first time in 2 years.

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/04jun16/hmi200.gif

I've been watching the fluctuating solar wind speed and proton count for the last few days, and it has seemed a bit odd to me.

There has been some "pulsing" (which I have not seen before).. and a temperature decrease (energy drop) in the particle density in the earthfacing stream and decrease in speed.

This started a few days ago. What I have seen is when there is a solar particle stream earthfacing, (such as from a coronal hole emission stream having been entered), particle density will drop and speed will increase. During storms particle density can become very high.

In this case, both are dropping (with that very distinct pulsing pattern being noted).. A pulse pattern which is very regular (see red circled area), very "square shaped in ON-OFF periods". I've just never seen such before and have seen more sinusoidal, "smooth" transitions.


http://chanlo.com/images/6-3-2016-solar-wind.jpg

There is an earthfacing coronal hole which is streaming particles squarely to the earth, and predictions are saying should be interacting with the earth's geomagnetic field sometime today.

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/04jun16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Auroral activity is nil.

Geomagnetic field stability has been rock solid, to the point of the kp index dropping to zero twice on 3 June 2016. Kp is currently sitting at 1, a low stable level.

(Kp data is derived from the following ground-based magnetometers: Sitka, Alaska; Meanook, Canada; Ottawa, Canada; Fredericksburg, Virginia; Hartland, UK; Wingst, Germany; Niemegk, Germany; and Canberra, Australia. The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm.)

[Bob]

A rather odd shaped coronal hole group is forming on the sun:


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/14jun16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

By the 15th earth should be entering a co-rotating region which could kick off geomagnetic storms and auroral activity.

Auroral activity has been stronger than usual for this time of year, apparently due to the solar particle streams and polarity from coronal hole emissions. It started to pick up after the "event" noted in the post above (the odd pulsation in the solar particle stream).

Right after the geomagnetic storm (prediction) from the 15th, the stream of particles from this hole set should reach earth on the 16th.

[Bob]

The storm talked about in the above post, arrived early - we're currently experiencing a Kp level of 6


http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif?time=1465939502000

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

As far as any "change" for cosmic rays, or other "hazardous" phenomenon happening, there is NO abnormal cosmic radiation level, no abnormal magnetic field level, no extinction event even close showing up on any sensors.


http://spaceweather.com/cosmicrays/2015/22oct15/pfotzer_22oct15.png?PHPSESSID=n5mno2a2hppb9j665gd1709e36


Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus (https://www.facebook.com/earthtoskycalculus/) fly "space weather balloons" to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly "down to Earth" form of space weather.

https://www.facebook.com/earthtoskycalculus/

Who are they, normal students, no axes to grind, just personal data observation and reporting:


A group of high school science enthusiasts from Bishop, CA launching balloons into the stratosphere in hope of deepening knowledge of the upper atmosphere.

In winter 2011, Earth to Sky Calculus was just a name, a simple idea. Today, Earth to Sky has meaning, history, perhaps even a touch of fame. Really though, it’s just a group of geeky high school kids along with their crazy teacher reaching for the stars, or the edge of the stratosphere rather.

Their website is: http://www.earthtosky.net/


In 2011, a group of student researchers in Bishop, California, began launching sub-orbital helium balloons to explore this near-space environment. Their organization, “Earth to Sky Calculus,” has since flown more than 85 missions to the stratosphere for a fraction of the cost of traditional space missions. Many of the flights have tested technologies for a “Space Weather Buoy” to measure the response of the upper atmosphere to solar storms.

The Buoy is now fully developed and here we report findings from flights in the past year.

Key results include the detection of two Forbush Decreases in 2014 and a surge in upper atmospheric radiation during the St. Patrick’s Day Solar induced Geomagnetic Storm of March 2015.

The technology of the Buoy is affordable and accessible to high schools and small colleges, and could form the basis for a continental network of space weather balloon programs.

LESS COSMIC RAYS - WHY?

A Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity following a coronal mass ejection (CME). It occurs due to the magnetic field of the plasma solar wind sweeping some of the galactic cosmic rays away from Earth. The term Forbush decrease was named after the American physicist Scott E. Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the 1930s and 1940s.

[Bob]

Been quiet for a while except for today -

This current coronal hole is so wide, the solar wind flowing from it could influence Earth for days to come.

We are currently experiencing solar storms. Katy maybe bar the doors.. maybe..


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/01sep16/ch_strip.png

http://spaceweather.com/images2016/02sep16/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm

[Bob]

Another large coronal hole has opened up, and is beaming particles to the earth - earth has just gone through a G1 magnetic storm after entering a heliospheric current sheet from the sun.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/25sep16/ch_strip.jpg

this could trip volcanic activity in several volcanoes with the additional energy influx.

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled

[Bob]

Strong solar storm activity - Large geometrical coronal holes earthfacing currently - expect geomagnetic instability and auroras for the next 2 days.


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/25oct16/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm

Solar wind
speed: 681.5 km/sec
density: 7.0 protons/cm3

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-small.gif


Realtime webcam - Sweden

http://media.shootitlive.com/2A3fS9iN42znYzcQDlGQr50mY4B/1200.jpg?project_id=LightsOverLapland/1

Go to this website: http://lightsoverlapland.com/webcams/ Hit browser refresh button to see a new image (after about 5 min)..

[Bob]

Update 25 October - the geomagnetic storm level has increased to a strong G3, with potential to go into G4.

The Kp (stability/instability) total magnetic field index has increased to a level 7, which is considered a strong storm (Kp 9 is considered the historical max level)..

Historically with high levels of solar energy activity, and large swings of the geomagnetic field, volcanic activity and earthquake activity has been noted to rise.

Solar wind
speed: 727.7 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 7 strong
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong

Auroral geometry in Fairbanks, AK


http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-IMG_0054-Edit_1477402758.jpg

http://cc.amazingcounters.com/counter.php?i=3190880&c=9572953Kp Explanation

The Kp-index is the global geomagnetic storm index and is based on 3 hour measurements of the K-indices, for a given value, for each of the past days.

The K-index itself is a three hour long quasi-logarithmic local index of the geomagnetic activity, relative to a calm day curve for the given location.

The Kp-index measures the deviation of the most disturbed horizontal component of the magnetic field on fixed stations worldwide with their own local K-index.

The global Kp-index is then determined with an algorithm that puts the averages of every station together. The result is the global Kp-index.

The Kp-index ranges from 0 to 9 where a value of 0 means that there is very little geomagnetic activity and a value of 9 means extreme geomagnetic storming.

current Kp - Updated: Today at 1806 UT

speed: 717.3 km/sec
density: 9.7 protons/cm3


http://spaceweather.com/glossary/g3.jpg

[Bob]

Owie..


http://spaceweather.com/images2016/20nov16/ch_strip2.jpg

expected to hit 22-23rd this month.. a day or two away..

currently:

Solar wind
speed: 330.4 km/sec
density: 10.1 protons/cm3

particle stream is dense.