View Full Version : "Geometry" (? !) in Solar Coronal Holes?
Human's seeing things in clouds, or seeing things in pictures which may or may not be there is called,
anthropomorphism -
ref: http://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2013/03/seeing-things-anthropomorphism-and.html - "seeing things.."
"Under certain conditions, even 2D shapes can be interpreted as animate social agents rather than simple intention-less objects. "
also:
http://mikegreenimages.com/2011/07/03/musings-on-anthropomorphism-in-landscape-images/
"I’m convinced that people in general have a strong, subconscious tendency to seek to see images in human terms.."
or possibly, Pareidolia - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia
Common examples include seeing images of animals or faces in clouds, the man in the moon or the Moon rabbit, and hearing hidden messages on records when played in reverse. The "face on mars",
DaVinci - "if you look at any walls spotted with various stains or with a mixture of different kinds of stones, if you are about to invent some scene you will be able to see in it a resemblance to various different landscapes adorned with mountains, rivers, rocks, trees, plains, wide valleys, and various groups of hills. You will also be able to see divers combats and figures in quick movement, and strange expressions of faces, and outlandish costumes, and an infinite number of things which you can then reduce into separate and well conceived forms."
The Creepiest Cloud images recorded - http://scribol.com/science/30-creepiest-clouds-on-earth
http://2.thumbs.beta.scribol.com/6/sites/default/files/images/http-inlinethumb46.webshots.com-44269-2676888760103830173S600x600Q85.jpg?a=d?a=b
http://7.thumbs.beta.scribol.com/6/sites/default/files/images/http-inlinethumb57.webshots.com-41400-2991054620103830173S600x600Q85.jpg?a=d?a=b
http://5.thumbs.beta.scribol.com/6/sites/default/files/images/http-inlinethumb48.webshots.com-43247-2337071500103830173S600x600Q85.jpg?a=d?a=b
"er, yup, they must be "sprayin" in that one.."
So that brings us to the current Coronal Hole - the pattern which had started earlier in the month, started with geometry of some kind.. spherical holes, a line (well a long rectangle), a triangle, a square-ish hole, followed by the zig zag "aimed" precisely at Earth (all of which stream charged particles from the Sun out to space and anything in the way..
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sxi/images/latest_sxi.png
Tesla_WTC_Solution
18th May 2014, 20:10
It looks a lot like Cama Zotz, actually -- the Bat Signal lol :(
Scary, Bob! Are people gettin' all excited? :)
Made a chalk drawing 3 years or so ago, around this time of year -- was the Sun blasting earth w/ radiation/plasma, lol - and Cama Zotz watching it happen.
Cousin said "that looks demonic".
Beauty in the eye of the beholder etc.
p.s. that's a very cool image of the Sun on the bottom, look how powerful it is -- the force -- how many nukes is that? @@
http://maybesomeday.bognet.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Bat_Signal_by_shaunanakin-1024x768.jpg
This is a discussion of a Maya bat god. For the candy by Ambrosoli, see “ZotZ (Candy)”. For a discussion of the fictitious planet, see “A Wrinkle in Time”.
In Maya mythology, Camazotz (/kämäˈsots/) (alternate spellings Cama-Zotz, Sotz, Zotz) was a bat god. Camazotz means "death bat" in the K'iche' language. In Mesoamerica the bat was associated with night, death, and sacrifice.[1]
In the Popol Vuh, Camazotz are the bat-like monsters encountered by the Maya Hero Twins Hunahpu and Xbalanque during their trials in the underworld of Xibalba. The twins had to spend the night in the House of Bats where they squeezed themselves into their own blowguns in order to defend themselves from the circling bats. Hunahpu stuck his head out of his blowgun to see if the sun had risen and Camazotz immediately snatched off his head and carried it to the ballcourt to be hung up as the ball to be used by the gods in their next ballgame.[3]
The game between competing teams of players could symbolize the battles between the gods in the sky and the lords of the underworld. The ball could symbolize the sun. In some of these ritual games, the leader of the losing team would be decapitated, and His skull would then be used as the core around which a new rubber ball would be made. A common interpretation would emphasize the Venus cycle and the Maize God death-and-resurrection myth as core religious aspects of the game. The ancient Maya are believed to reenact, through the ball game, the mythic Underworld contest between the gods of life or fertility and the gods of death. This may have been an agriculture-related ritual or an apotheosis of the military conquest. Archaeologically, that two fold symbolism may be represented by the so-called ‘creation’ and "hux-’ahaal" or ‘three-conquest’ ball courts, such as the one in Naranjo.
Bob I always wondered why these people were so sun-centric.
did they remember something we forgot during an Ice Age?
something about the sun
ghostrider
18th May 2014, 21:06
The triangle is always there , they say it is a doorway , stars like ours are connected and some ET groups use them to travel vast distances , hence the name star gates ...
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=nf9h22i7vtundpvi4sk1p6su14
The rectangle from yesterday has started to reform into S shaped curves lying on the side (from this view), with a small triangle - sorta like that zig zag of the 13th, but not so strongly, and definitely in the southern hemisphere, not vertical across the equator..
There is no appreciable particle emission coming from that geometry earth facing.
We are also in "solar max" for this current sunspot cycle. After June the levels of emissions should be decreasing until 2019.
Yr Month Predicted Hi Low Sunspots Predicted Hi Low 10.7 cm radio flux
2014 04 84.3 90.3 78.3 142.6 146.6 138.6
2014 05 83.8 90.8 76.8 141.6 146.6 136.6
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/20may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=giej93ist1593d0u1crrutoia6
According to NASA there are no appreciable Earth Facing Coronal Holes at this time. The geometry since yesterday appears to be closing more-so than before, and some very small spots (darker areas) appear to be forming in the upper left quadrant.
As to Solar activity for this predicted horrendous solar cycle, it has been a DUD according to NOAA researchers. (Nothing to see here..)
SOLAR 'MINI-MAX': Last month at the Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado, solar cycle expert Doug Biesecker of NOAA announced that "Solar Maximum is here, finally." According to his analysis, the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now. Spoiler: It's not very impressive. "This solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record," says Workshop attendee Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc. To illustrate the point, he plotted the smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 vs. the previous 23 cycles since 1755:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19may14/minimax_strip2.jpg
In the composite plot, Cycle 24 is traced in red. Only a few cycles since the 18th century have have had lower sunspot counts. For this reason, many researchers have started calling the ongoing peak a "Mini-Max."
"By all Earth-based measures of geomagnetic and geo-effective solar activity, this cycle has been extremely quiet," notes Turner. "However, Doug Biesecker has presented several charts showing that most large events such as strong flares and significant geomagnetic storms occur in the declining phase of the solar cycle."
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=9dss7smk2djjc4ubikjc21fdm2
The very rectangular geometry which was on the lower quadrant of the Sun is breaking up into a very small geometry, essentially closing as it rotates off to the right. Above very slight geometry which was noted yesterday has rotated slightly more towards center but also appears to be closing. This is a good sign. NASA reports that there is no appreciable Earth Facing coronal hole, but we did have a brief period of X-ray flux burst.
This is a dynamic image so it will change daily and any previous images mentioned will scroll off the chart:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=d85chva94bdoa2gkbp0d53dtb5
A small Heart Shaped Coronal hole appears to be forming in the upper left quadrant of the solar disk. Most all other small holes are diminishing. NASA/NOAA says there are no large Earth facing coronal holes at this time.
The Auroral oval was slightly stronger this evening in Europe. Solar activity is considered low and no sunspots are being reported as containing significant magnetic energy.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Solar wind
speed: 447.9 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 2117 UT
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 1551 UT May23
24-hr: C1 0459 UT May23
So there has been a little bit of energetic activity sent Earth-wise.
New sunspot AR2071 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23may14/hmi200.gif
Coronal Holes:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=f7jh8olt3fe4gakn4acab0snv7
NASA/NOAA is saying there is no appreciably large coronal hole earth facing.. The Heart-Shaped hole starting to form mentioned yesterday is increasing in size and shape, starting to form a type of triangular shaped region.
Fairy Friend
24th May 2014, 19:39
Circles and a triangle. I do admit I have been watching a lot of Sesame Street and Elmo with my grandson. So I'm into shapes.
Solar activity ticked upward on May 24th with the eruption of an M1-class solar flare from sunspot AR2065. Sunspot AR2073 also poses a threat for M-class flares, so the weekend might not be as quiet as previously supposed.
What I am looking for in the CORONAL HOLES are specific geometries which are Earth facing, that can release substantial particle streams, or show a potential for a nuclear isomer massive release of energy (gamma ray burst), of large levels.
Planetary K-index and Interplanetary Mag. Field
B_total: 2.1 nT
Bz: 0.5 nT south
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=eplq9ob47mig35t54prlr0gem1
NASA/NOAA are saying there are no appreciable Earth facing Coronal Holes.
X-ray flux graphic:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_sm.gif
Electron levels were increasing which is a function of the inner ionospheric layers being excited from the x-ray burst.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Electron.gif
27th May 14 update
QUIET WITH A CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low. However, departing sunspot AR2065 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. If such an explosion does occur, it would be well-connected to Earth. The sun's spiralling magnetic field leads from the sun's western limb, where AR2065 is located, almost directly back to our planet. (spaceweather.com)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27may14/hmi200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26may14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The 'heart-shaped hole", that turned into a triangle shaped hole, moved off to the right as seen above. According to NASA/NOAA there are no large Earth-facing Coronal holes at this time.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
B total: 3.8 nT
Bz: 0.4 nT north orientation
Current electron flux levels are low.
QUIET SUN: Solar activity remains low. Not one of the sunspots scattered across the visible disk of the sun possesses the kind of complex magnetic field that poses a threat for strong eruptions. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 5% chance of M-flares on May 29th.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/29may14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=bmsmitd87302a2f1kp9f9ajj37
There are no large earth facing coronal holes according to NASA/NOAA
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.3 nT
Bz: 2.5 nT north
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 0217 UT
Solar wind
speed: 321.1 km/sec
density: 9.3 protons/cm3
QUIET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLARES: Solar activity is low. New sunspot 2077 has developed an unstable 'beta-gamma' magnetic field, prompting NOAA forecasters to boost the odds of an M-flare today to 5%. However, that's still a 95% chance of nothing happening. Unless a filament collapses.
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 2214 UT Jun02
24-hr: B4 1450 UT Jun02
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.1 nT
Bz: 7.8 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/02jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=c7575nsejbsidej5360j32hiu0
NASA and NOAA report no large earth facing coronal holes at present.
There is a building coronal hole as seen in the lower southern hemisphere, where such holes have started before.
Breaking a days-long spell of quiet, sunspot AR2077 unleashed an M1-class solar flare this morning. The impulsive flare, which peaked at 04:09 UT on June 3rd, probably did not hurl a CME toward Earth. Stay tuned for updates as more data are analyzed.
Sunspot AR2077 poses a threat for M-class solar flares..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/03jun14/hmi200.gif
Solar wind
speed: 345.2 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B7 1802 UT Jun03
24-hr: M1 0409 UT Jun03
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.4 nT
Bz: 1.6 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/03jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Although, NASA and NOAA say, there are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun, there is a large coronal hole formation in the southern hemisphere..
Space Weather Message Code: WARK04
Serial Number: 2269
Issue Time: 2014 Jun 03 0240 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2014 Jun 03 0239 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Jun 03 1300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
In post 13 a filament was potentially on the verge of collapsing - it did..
A giant filament of solar magnetism, which amateur astronomers have been monitoring for more than a week, erupted yesterday.
Astronomers had been bracing for the possibility that the filament would collapse, causing a Hyder flare when it landed on the solar surface. Instead, it erupted and hurled part of itself into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded a CME emerging from the blast site: CME movie.
The CME billowed away from the sun at 520 km/s (1.2 million mph). Although that sounds fast, it is actually slower than the average CME. This makes sense because the explosion itself was very slow. The collapse period was nearly 24 hours long.
Coronagraph images show that the explosion was not squarely Earth-directed. Most of the CME will head south of the Sun-Earth line. Nevertheless, there could be a glancing blow on or about June 7th, possibly sparking polar geomagnetic storms.
These are the current statistics:
Solar wind
speed: 348.6 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 2157 UT Jun05
24-hr: B5 1312 UT Jun05
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 105 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.0 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05jun14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
NASA/NOAA reports that here are no large coronal holes on the Earthside of the sun, however there is a very large hole pointing southward (away from the earth), in the lower southern hemisphere.
There's slightly increased activity with a higher proton density in the solar wind, and a slight increase in speed.
Solar wind
speed: 381.2 km/sec
density: 8.1 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 0215 UT Jun07
24-hr: B9 0215 UT Jun07
Solar activity remains low. However, new sunspot AR2080 has developed a 'beta-gamma-magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. It is now crackling with C-class flares; these flares are relatively weak but they could herald something stronger. NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of M-flares to 10%, a figure that is likely to increase in the days ahead.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/06jun14/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 111 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.6 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/06jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Although there is not a direct earth facing coronal hole, there is the start of a possibility. The geometry in the southern hemisphere of the sun has turned more "triangular-like" in appearance.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray_sm.gif
As predicted, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on June 7th.
The glancing blow at approximately 16:30 UT could spark minor geomagnetic storms in the hours ahead.
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras.
Solar wind
speed: 493.8 km/sec
density: 16.0 protons/cm3
You can see the increase in available protons and solar wind speed compared to yesterday and the day before.
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B9 2207 UT Jun07
24-hr: C3 0625 UT Jun07
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
The magnetic earth field shows unsettled.
During the past 48 hours, three large sunspot groups have materialized. Nearly invisible on June 5th, now the active regions are peppered with dark cores larger than Earth. All three regions have unstable magnetic fields that pose a threat for significant eruptions.
The greatest threat comes from sunspot AR2080. Its 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field harbors energy not only for medium M-class flares, but also for powerful X-flares. Because AR2080 is centrally located on the solar disk, any flares this weekend will likely be Earth-directed. (see below)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/07jun14/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 133 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.4 nT
Bz: 5.3 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/07jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
There are currently NO large coronal holes earth facing according to NASA/NOAA. There is a building rectangular geometry which is starting to cross the solar equator. The triangle shaped hole in the southern hemisphere is proceeding to rotate off the earth visible region.
Current prediction reports:
Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/2225Z from Region 2080 (S12E04). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
462 km/s at 07/1851Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1902Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 07/1849Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jun) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jun 137
Predicted 08 Jun-10 Jun 140/145/155
90 Day Mean 07 Jun 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun 010/010-006/005-006/005
WEEKEND GEOMAGNETIC STORM: High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on June 8th and 9th as Earth passes through the wake of a CME, which struck on June 7th.
Initially, the CME's impact was was weak, but as the 7th turned into the 8th a G2-class geomagnetic storm developed, sparking auroras across Canada and many northern-tier US states.
"For about 10 minutes the pinks were just incredible," says Justin Phillips, of New Auburn, Wisconsin..
Aurora:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08jun14/auroras_strip.jpg
Auroras were also sighted in the USA in Maine, Minnesota, Washington, South Dakota, New York, and Michigan. About 10,000 miles away, sky watchers spotted the same shades of pink over New Zealand, so this was truly a global event.
This is the stuff we were "feeling".. Can't communicate, people can't understand what ur saying? Dohh.. :)
What's making the lights?
The source of the CME was a magnetic filament on the sun, which erupted on June 4th. The explosion was not squarely aimed at Earth, but the glancing blow it provided three days later was enough to spark the ongoing display. NOAA forecasters say CME effects could persist until June 9th with a 25% chance of continued geomagnetic storms.
Here's some of the spots showing up in a photo:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08jun14/sunset_strip.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.5 nT
Bz: 1.4 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
NASA and NOAA are reporting NO earth facing coronal holes.
The x-class flares today (double) were not precisely earth aimed.
BUT there was some ionization that happened in the upper ionosphere. This double event was directed mostly away from Earth.
Forecasters expected an X-flare today, and the sun experienced an event.
The source, however, was unexpected.
A new sunspot (AR2087) suddenly emerging from behind the sun's southeastern limb erupted twice, producing an X2.2-flare at 11:42 UT and an X1.5-flare at 12:52.
Solar wind
speed: 537.5 km/sec
density: 4.1 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C2 2359 UT Jun10
24-hr: X2 1142 UT Jun10
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 161 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.1 nT
Bz: 1.1 nT north
There are no large earth facing coronal holes according to NASA and NOAA
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/10jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
As seen below this is where the x-class flares originated, not facing earthside:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/10jun14/x2p2_strip.jpg
BUT despite this not being precisely aimed at the earth, a spill over of X-rays and UV radiation from the double flare created a "wave of ionization" in Earth's upper atmosphere, altering the normal propagation of radio transmissions over Europe. Rob Stammes recorded the sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID) from his laboratory in Lofoton, Norway. There was an R3 radio blackout in Europe as a result.
Three day moving graph:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif
Expect auroral activity in the high latitudes on the 13th, and unsettled earthside activity through the 15th.
Current activity reporting addition flares, still not square on earth facing, however a revision was issued for yesterday's double x flare from sunspot 2087:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/graphics/warnings_timeline_1976.png
warning notes follows:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 223
Issue Time: 2014 Jun 11 0908 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jun 11 0904 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.
----------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 222
Issue Time: 2014 Jun 10 1246 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jun 10 1245 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.
----------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTXMF
Serial Number: 221
Issue Time: 2014 Jun 10 1143 UTC
ALERT: X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Jun 10 1140 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate
Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html.
----------
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 462
Issue Time: 2014 Jun 11 0615 UTC
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Jun 11 0458 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.
----------
Electron flux (particle excitation) near earth has continued to increase
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Electron.gif
No coronal holes are earth side
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/11jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Solar wind
speed: 388.0 km/sec
density: 7.4 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C9 2017 UT Jun13
24-hr: M2 0756 UT Jun13
Crackling activity, with a couple sunspots that have the magnetics required to evoke up to X class flares earth facing.
IN the midst of the particle stream from the 10th's events, (3 day delay about), the electron flux is elevated as well as proton count. The proton count has been higher. (see days before) such as the second June.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13jun14/hmi1898.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 175 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.8 nT
Bz: 3.3 nT south
At the moment, there really is nothing spectacular going on, just some elevated levels..
As far as coronal holes and geometry earth facing, this is about the most blank we have seen in a while, nada, zip..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
(yawn)..
NOAA and NASA reports no earth facing coronal holes. Also, there is a potential for CME flares from the earth facing sun spots.
There have been radio disturbances over the last 3 days from X-Class flaring (which was not primarily earth facing, but induced a bit of a glancing beam).
Fairy Friend
17th June 2014, 20:38
Does appear to have triangular shaped coronal hole facing us. I think it looks more like a spaceship or an arrow head.
25 June - Solar Coronal Hole facing Earth, square on, be prepared for particle influx on the 27-29th..
Solar wind
speed: 347.0 km/sec
density: 4.7 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 1900 UT Jun25
24-hr: B9 0540 UT Jun25
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 94 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.2 nT
Bz: 4.6 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=gbmppidlhoceckcjgbij9gfde6
No other warnings or watches in effect.
We see three sunspots present with zero indication of earth facing activity (according to NOAA and NASA)
Auroras are NILL meaning there is minimal influx activity currently. Keep an eye out from the 26th-29th for an increase in auroral activity..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
It looks like 3 coronal holes are now earth facing with expectations of additional particle streams expected.
Update is 28-29th to reach. Aurora activity is starting to increase.
Solar wind
speed: 329.8 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
No current earth facing coronal holes
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/30jun14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/sw_dials.gif
If it got any quieter one would think we are at solar minimum...
Analysts have declared Solar Cycle 24 a "Mini Max" because the ongoing peak in solar activity is so much less intense than other solar cycles of the Space Age. However, today's sunspot count is anything but mini. This solar cycle has totally confounded the NOAA and NASA scientists and it has violated all known predictions.. :) (love to tell you how that happened but you would never believe it..)
Solar wind - Nil
speed: 254.6 km/sec
density: 0.9 protons/cm3
Big sunspots AR2104, AR2106, AR2107, AR2108 and AR2109 all have "beta-gamma" magnetic fields that harbor energy for M-class solar flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05jul14/hmi200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
B total: 3.2 nT
Bz: 1.4 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is a coronal hole earth side facing. It's particle stream should reach us by 9th of July.
NOAA Scale
Past 24 hours
and Current
Geomagnetic Storms - none
Previous 24 hour G-scale value - nil
Current G-scale value - nil
Solar Radiation Storms - none
Previous 24 hour S-scale value - nil
Current S-scale value - nil
Radio Blackouts - none
Previous 24 hour R-scale value - nil
Current R-scale value - nil
(yawn)..
The coronal hole of the 5th has widened a bit.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08jul14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
The particle stream is still expected to reach on the 9th or 10th..
Solar wind
speed: 317.6 km/sec
density: 3.2 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.6 nT
Bz: 5.3 nT north
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
NOAA predicts that the current sun-spot group could light off an M class flare.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08jul14/hmi200.gif
10th July Solar Coronal Holes earth facing - NONE
The M6-flare of July 8th had a noisy side-effect. There was a bit of X-Ray activity (two spikes).
It caused a roar of static to issue from the loudspeakers of shortwave radios on Earth. In New Mexico, amateur radio astronomer Thomas Ashcraft recorded the sounds: http://spaceweather.com/images2014/09jul14/static.mp3 http://spaceweather.com/images2014/09jul14/static.mp3
Solar activity is low, but the quiet is unlikely to persist. There are three sunspots with unstable magnetic fields capable of strong eruptions: AR2108, AR2109, AR2113. NOAA forecasters estimate a 75% chance of M-flares and 15% chance of X-flares on July 10th (see below for C class activity).
Solar wind - CALM
speed: 376.9 km/sec
density: 4.2 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares -
6-hr max: C1 1730 UT Jul10
24-hr: C5 0253 UT Jul10
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/10jul14/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 198 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/10jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no major earth facing coronal holes and no major radio activity coming from past solar events - energy CALM - there are no predictions for the 3 day period of geomagnetic activity.
M-Class flare activity is possible.
WEAK IMPACT: A weak interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field on July 14 at approximately 1400 UT. This is probably the overdue CME of July 9th delivering its long-awaited glancing blow. The impact did not spark a geomagnetic storm. Updates on Twitter @spaceweatherman.
GROWING QUIET: The odds of an Earth-directed solar flare are plummeting as sunspots AR2108 and AR2109 rotate over over the sun's western limb. The departure of these two active regions leaves the face of the sun almost blank. Solar activity should remain low for the next 24-48 hours.
Take a look at the solar wind content.. This is intensely packed with protons compared to other reports posted.
Solar wind
speed: 358.9 km/sec
density: 61.3 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B4 1842 UT Jul14
24-hr: C1 1246 UT Jul14
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 127 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.6 nT
Bz: 2.1 nT north
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/14jul14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
there are no LARGE earth facing coronal holes, but there are a lot of small coronal holes earth facing, which could be responsible for the high density proton count.
NOCTILUCENT CLOUDS: The weekend of July 12-13 brought another outbreak of noctilucent clouds (NLCs) to Europe. Across the northern reaches of the continent, skies were criss-crossed by signature ripples of electric blue. No it is not "spraying".. :)
This could be due to the planetary stress fields in the planet being excited by the incoming particle stream charges reacting with the ionosphere (opposite pole mirrors in the earth).. The result is a containment field which holds the water vapor in a geometry.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13jul14/ripples_strip.jpg
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/16jul14/hmi200.gif
Itsy bitsy sunspots, 2 of them not pointing towards earth.
Solar wind - slightly faster than usual, proton count low
speed: 404.8 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B5 2300 UT Jul16
24-hr: B5 2300 UT Jul16
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 109 sfu
Auroral Oval - NIL
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.3 nT
Bz: 0.8 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/16jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
No large earth facing coronal holes are present at this time according to NOAA and NASA
All calm.
26385
There are no large earth facing coronal holes and all activity remains quiet.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/16jul14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?
There are no large earth facing coronal holes
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.0 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT south
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 92 sfu
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 92 sfu
Until the sunspots return, solar flares are unlikely. NOAA forecasters estimate the odds of an M-flare today to be no more than 1%.
Calm - Solar wind
speed: 331.9 km/sec
density: 1.3 protons/cm3
SUNSPOT NUMBER DROPS TO ZERO: Solar activity is very low. July 17th brought the first spotless day in nearly three years. The face of the sun was completely blank and the sunspot number dropped to zero. Now, however, two small sunspots are emerging, circled in this image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/18jul14/hmi200.gif
(get the magnifying glass out)
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B1 1800 UT Jul18
24-hr: B2 1756 UT Jul18
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.1 nT
Bz: 0.6 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/18jul14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
There are no large coronal holes earth facing, however there are a number of smaller holes with different geometries earth facing. Particle streams are nil though.
For the 4th day in a row, solar activity is extremely low.
Solar wind - slow
speed: 281.8 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 2342 UT Jul19
24-hr: B3 2342 UT Jul19
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19jul14/hmi200.gif
Two very small sunspots
Auroral activity oval - nil to non-existent
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.3 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no earth facing coronal holes. Particle stream is nil.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/SatEnv.gif
THE ALL QUIET EVENT: The "All Quiet Event" is still underway. For the 5th day in a row, solar activity is extremely low, with weak solar wind, no flares, and a sunspot number near zero. NOAA forecasters put the odds of a significant flare today at no more than 1%..
Solar wind
speed: 273.2 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 0105 UT Jul21
24-hr: B2 0105 UT Jul21
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.0 nT
Bz: 0.5 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/20jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no coronal holes earth facing at this time.
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_304/512/latest.jpg
Solar wind
speed: 315.0 km/sec
density: 0.4 protons/cm3
What's out there, and it isn't much is moving along a little bit faster than yesterday, but the proton density is really really low.
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 2318 UT Jul22
24-hr: B3 0733 UT Jul22
Solar activity remains very low. A really tiny sunspot AR2119 does not pose a threat for strong solar flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22jul14/hmi200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.6 nT
Bz: 2.8 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no large earth facing coronal holes.
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 90 sfu - very low
Solar wind
speed: 313.1 km/sec
density: 2.5 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B3 2006 UT Jul23
24-hr: B5 0542 UT Jul23
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23jul14/hmi200.gif
Solar activity remains low despite the emergence of two new sunspots on the eastern limb.
The Radio Sun - QUIET
10.7 cm flux: 93 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 3.5 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no earth side facing coronal holes.
A little coronal hole was apparently contributing to some auroral activity seen in Minnesota early this morning.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26jul14/mn_strip.jpg
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.2 nT
Bz: 3.2 nT north
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
The solar wind proton density is NIL..
Solar wind
speed: 363.7 km/sec
density: 0.3 protons/cm3
And there are a few sunspots, showing up with no real activity.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26jul14/hmi200.gif
(yawn)
It's certainly beautiful out there with respect to solar activity..
QUIET SUN: Despite an uptick in the sunspot number, solar activity remains low. AR2121 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares, but so far the quiet sunspot seems dis-inclined to erupt. A significant flare this weekend would be a surprise...
Solar wind particle intensity is up a bit..
Solar wind
speed: 323.6 km/sec
density: 8.4 protons/cm3
Solar activity remains low despite an uptick in the sunspot number.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27jul14/hmi200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth soon.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27jul14/socal_strip.jpg
some pretty Aurora activity is happening..
Solar wind proton count is NIL again,
Solar wind
speed: 307.3 km/sec
density: 0.2 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/29jul14/hmi200.gif
Sunspot number is coming back up, but these are not causing any problems. All quiet.
Radio Sun - moderate
10.7 cm flux: 132 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/29jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
No coronal holes not even small ones which is matching the very low particle flux.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Solar activity has remained LOW for three weeks now.
Sunspots AR2126 (S10W11) and AR2127 are the only two that NOAA/NASA seems to feel have sufficient magnetic structure that could lead to flares, but are saying despite such, these spots are remaining calm and stable.
Proton Count is going up and there is starting to form an earth side facing coronal hole.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/31jul14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Solar wind
speed: 307.7 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
The speed isn't too fast, nor is the proton density, but the auroral oval over northern europe currently is starting to become stronger.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/31jul14/hmi200.gif
The sunspot count is up, and AR2130 has a delta-class magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. July 30th, a dark magnetic filament on the sun erupted and hurled part of itself into space. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory tracked a bright CME moving away from the blast site at 700 km/s. The CME is not coming straight for Earth, although it does have a small Earth-directed component. Computer models are suggesting it will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on August 2nd. NOAA forecasters estimate a 30% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the storm cloud arrives.
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 152 sfu is up slightly and tracking the increase of incoming particles.
Current Auroral Map:
http://spaceweather.com/POES_PICS/poes_latest240_northamerica.gif
Bob
4th August 2014, 22:03
Solar wind speed is up a bit, but proton count is not too high
Solar wind
speed: 431.5 km/sec
density: 5.6 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/04aug14/hmi200.gif
bunches of small sunspots, with still Sunspot AR2130 having a potential for an event.
The auroral oval is showing strong activity over Europe indicative of particle streams having been present.
http://spaceweather.com/POES_PICS/poes_latest240_northamerica.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/04aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Although there are no MAJOR coronal holes earth facing, there are small holes earth-facing as shown above.
Radio Sun - moderate
10.7 cm flux: 156 sfu
Bob
8th August 2014, 15:53
Solar wind speed is slow and not too many protons
Solar wind
speed: 399.0 km/sec
density: 1.2 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1133 UT Aug08
24-hr: C1 1133 UT Aug08
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08aug14/hmi200.gif
Solar activity is low. Not one of these sunspots has the kind of complex magnetic field that poses a threat for strong solar flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The coronal hole view is showing unusual geometry, with substantial holes, but none are directly earth facing.
http://spaceweather.com/POES_PICS/poes_latest240_northamerica.gif
Auroral activity is low with a pretty much even field distribution.
Overall, CALM patterns present.. (still keep an eye on the coronal holes, there is geometry forming)
Bob
19th August 2014, 04:50
Solar wind - slow
speed: 288.6 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3 - moderate
The minor CME from a few days ago, expected to hit Earth's magnetic field on August 18th did not arrive on time.
The tardy cloud is still en route, however, and it could spark geomagnetic activity around the poles on Aug. 19th and 20th when it finally reaches our planet..
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B6 2158 UT Aug18
24-hr: C1 1355 UT Aug18
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19aug14/hmi200.gif
All the sunspots are in decline and pose little threat according to NOAA
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 4.9 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
No coronal holes earth facing.
Bob
21st August 2014, 23:35
Solar wind up a little bit
speed: 336.3 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3, slightly higher
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21aug14/hmi200.gif
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C7 1904 UT Aug21
24-hr: M3 1331 UT Aug21
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21aug14/afterglow_strip.jpg
The weak CME from the other day created very pretty auroras
Despite some flare activity (small), none of these sunspots has the type of complex magnetic field that harbors energy for very strong flares. Solar activity is therefore low.
Planetary K-index - a bit higher than usual
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.0 nT
Bz: 0.4 nT south - the field is not as strong as it has been indicating an incoming field polarity shift
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
no earthside coronal holes
Bob
25th August 2014, 21:39
Solar wind is pretty slow and proton density is down.
speed: 255.8 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3
An M2-class explosion in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2146 has hurled a bright CME into space on August 25th at 1511 UT. Although the storm cloud is well off the sun-Earth line, our planet might receive a glancing blow on Aug. 28-29. With another CME already en route, due to arrrive tomorrow, Earth could experience minor geomagnetic storming throughout the period Aug. 26-29.
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M3 2021 UT Aug25
24-hr: M3 2021 UT Aug25
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25aug14/hmi200.gif
Sunspot AR2149 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares..
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 2.0 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no earth facing coronal holes at the moment.
Bob
28th August 2014, 03:07
CME of the other day is arriving and making for some beautiful Auroras:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27aug14/iceland_strip.jpg
Solar Wind - moderate, with low proton count
328.9 km/sec
density: 2.0 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B8 1846 UT Aug27
24-hr: C4 0358 UT Aug27
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
With the charged particles, the auroral OVAL is strong and completely visible over Hudson Bay, and northern Scandinavia.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Although there are no strong coronal holes for the small ones present, there IS geometry starting to form.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 13.1 nT
Bz: 11.2 nT south
(Strong magnetic field fluctuation is indicated)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Justin-Phillips-boom_filtered_1409135829_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Aurora-over-Grasslands-National-Park-1_1409148654_lg.jpg
Bob
29th August 2014, 01:16
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28aug14/grasslands_strip.jpg
Proton Flux is up
Solar wind
speed: 360.0 km/sec
density: 9.1 protons/cm3
Particle from the previous CME's (August 27th) are continuing to trigger strong Auroras..
Sunspot AR2146, has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. The geoeffectiveness of any flares from this region will be mitigated, however, by its off-center location on the solar disk. (its not Earth pointing :)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28aug14/hmi200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
The south-pointing magnetic field has opened a crack in Earth's magnetosphere.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 10.3 nT
Bz: 0.1 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There IS geometry present in the coronal pattern, although the holes are not large.
A few of the Auroras:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_0599_1409230136_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_0619_1409230136.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Asle-Hjellbrekke-ahj_Aurora_Nordlys_MosjAcen_28_aug_2014_D812535_1409223778_lg.jpg
Bob
29th August 2014, 15:25
Solar CME activity from the last couple days has really kicked up the Auroral Activity -
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapN.gif
(Deeper Orange and bigger wider arc equals stronger activity)
Solar wind is up in speed, but slightly less in particle density
speed: 412.1 km/sec
density: 6.2 protons/cm3
Interplanetary Mag. Field - polarity has moved back northly closed the southward hole from yesterday
Btotal: 6.0 nT
Bz: 5.8 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/29aug14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Geometry in the corona has started to break up, and there are no large facing earthside holes
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm (Unsettled)
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 119 sfu - strong activity
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Frank-Olsen-PK1A8995-2_1409322764.jpg
Taken by Frank Olsen on August 29, 2014 @ Sortland, Norway
Bob
1st September 2014, 19:51
Solar wind - particles are decreasing but wind speed is still up there a bit
speed: 392.2 km/sec
density: 2.9 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C1 1605 UT Sep01
24-hr: C2 0745 UT Sep01
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/01sep14/hmi200.gif
The spots are moving off earth-facing - Solar activity is low. However, growing sunspot AR2152 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares. An eruption from that sunspot today would be Earth-directed.
Radio Sun - about average
10.7 cm flux: 123 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.4 nT
Bz: 1.8 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/01sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There has been a coronal hole formed and is earth facing. Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Sept. 1-2
Bob
5th September 2014, 16:31
NEW SUNSPOTS: NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of an M-class solar flare today to 55%. The likely source would be one of three new active sunspots that have rotated into view over the sun's eastern limb. A few days ago, the northernmost of these sunspots unleashed a very strong flare; because the blast site was on the farside of the sun, however, Earth was not in the line of fire. This could change in the days ahead..
Solar wind - about normal
speed: 357.7 km/sec
density: 6.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05sep14/hmi200.gif
Sunspot AR2152 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares..
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.9 nT
Bz: 2.1 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Two small earthside facing coronal holes, streaming particles, not excessive..
Auroras from CME's
According to NOAA analysts, the CME from the 2 Sept. filament eruption, will deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field on Sept. 6th. This is not a particularly fast or powerful CME. Nevertheless, the coming impact could spark auroras. The last two minor CMEs that struck Earth in late August triggered beautiful displays of Northern and Southern Lights.
Background on the FILAMENT ERUPTION, EARTH-DIRECTED: On Sept. 2nd, an enormous filament of dark plasma, which had been snaking across the face of the sun for days, became unstable and erupted. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the blast..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Joe-Buffalo-Child-image_1409930334.jpg
YellowKnife, Canada, 5th Sept.
Bob
13th September 2014, 07:41
Solar wind - a bit fast with not too high a proton count density
speed: 693.8 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13sep14/hmi200.gif
Both AR2157 and AR2158 sunspots may evoked an X-Class flare or more. Both are large and complex.
Radio Sun - about normal
10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu
K-index is still showing up as a 3 and is above minimums, but not as strong as the max potential, which would be a 9..
The index is predicted to go up to a 5 in the next 24 hours or so.
K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong
K -index is based on a three-hourly indices which give a quantitative, but less detailed measure of the level of geomagnetic activity.
K-index scale has a range from 0 to 9 and is directly related to the maximum amount of fluctuation (relative to a quiet day) in the geomagnetic field over that three-hour interval.
The K-index is therefore updated every three hours to provide the averages. It is therefore not instantaneous, but statistical averages.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 27.6 nT
Bz: 16.5 nT north
The field intensity is increased, and is more north going orientation than southernly (which would have been a bit more dramatic as far as disruption of earth and satellite systems)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/12sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The coronal display is pretty smooth - no large earth facing coronal holes exist.. there are some holes at the bottom pole as seen in the graphic.. (the sunspots can be seen as quite bright)
The combined satellite environment graphic shows up as follows:
http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_satenv_half.gif?
Auroral activity:
From Maine - USA 12th Sept
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/amy-j-johnson-20140912-8774-3_1410581944_lg.jpg
From Norway 13th
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Harald-Albrigtsen-DSC_2800_1410591487_lg.jpg
At the moment, due to the north orientation of the magnetic interplanetary field, auroras are not as bright as could have been expected, but we should wait over the next 24 hours to see what happens.
This is the auroral oval showing regions of intensity - darker orange is stronger
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapN.gif
Bob
22nd September 2014, 18:56
The auroral oval is showing brightly with increases in high proton and electron activity
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/images/swpc_aurora_map_n.png
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22sep14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
There is a large coronal hole earthside facing, with expected proton streams to arrive 26th thru 27th - how long the hole and proton stream remains active is currently not available.
Bright auroras are showing up in the higher latitudes in the Scandinavian Countries
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Geir-Svendsen-061_1411391067_lg.jpg
The satellite environment plots show the activity peaks:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/SatEnv.gif
Bob
24th September 2014, 01:40
Solar wind - moderate speed with increasing proton density
speed: 382.2 km/sec
density: 6.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23sep14/hmi200.gif
The sunspot geometry is a bit unusual as one can notice, a bit linear.. Sunspot AR2172 is quiet yet poses a growing threat for strong flares
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
An earthfacing coronal hole is continuing to stream particles. 26-27 of Sept should contain a strong particle field hitting the earth's ionosphere.
Strong geomagnetic instability is forecast for the higher latitudes coming in the next 3 days..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Steve-Lansdell-image_1411520006_lg.jpg
Solar wind speed is picking up:
Solar wind
speed: 411.8 km/sec
density: 6.3 protons/cm3 - proton density is the same
This is leading to a bit of geomagnetic agitation. Updated: Today at 0317 UT
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled (40-70 nanoTesla fluctuation) (this is NOT a geomagnetic storm which would start at about Kp=5
The K-index is a code that is related to the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer relative to a quiet day, during a three-hour interval. The conversion table from maximum fluctuation (nT) to K-index, varies from observatory to observatory in such a way that the historical rate of occurrence of certain levels of K are about the same at all observatories. In practice this means that observatories at higher geomagnetic latitude require higher levels of fluctuation for a given K-index.
Bob
25th September 2014, 00:33
Solar wind
speed: 409.8 km/sec
density: 6.1 protons/cm3
Solar wind speed is up and proton count still remains high.
The K-index is a code that is related to the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer relative to a quiet day, during a three-hour interval. The conversion table from maximum fluctuation (nT) to K-index, varies from observatory to observatory in such a way that the historical rate of occurrence of certain levels of K are about the same at all observatories. In practice this means that observatories at higher geomagnetic latitude require higher levels of fluctuation for a given K-index.
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/24sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is a square-on earth facing which continues to stream particles towards the earth's ionosphere.
Auroral activity remains high in the northern latitudes
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sandee--Rice-_MG_0322-small_1411600464_lg.jpg
and
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sandee--Rice-_MG_0223-small_1411600464.jpg
Bob
25th September 2014, 23:48
Solar wind
speed: 441.9 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
Proton count is slightly down, and the current geomagnetic 'ringing' is a bit diminished.
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
The 26-28th could be a bit bumpy as the particle stream from the coronal holes reaches the ionosphere.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is a strong earth side facing coronal hole WITH square geometry present.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.4 nT
Bz: 1.8 nT south
Auroral activity still remains strong
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Thomas-Becker-Northern-light-corona_1411683888.jpg
Bob
27th September 2014, 00:38
The earthfacing coronal hole is still present
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Proton density is somewhat flat.
Solar wind
speed: 444.7 km/sec
density: 2.5 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
The auroral oval is moderate to strong
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapN.gif
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Anne-Birgitte-Fyhn-DSC_6663_20140926_8754-2_1411771585.jpg
Solar wind particle density is starting to increase:
Solar wind
speed: 415.9 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
and
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Updated: Today at 0347 UT
Sidney
27th September 2014, 03:47
Those auroras re magical Bob. Appreciate you taking the time to post all those. Just breathtaking. Thank you.
Bob
27th September 2014, 18:22
Electron flux is starting to rise a bit.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/plots/satenv/20140927_satenv.gif
Solar wind
speed: 391.6 km/sec
density: 4.6 protons/cm3
proton density down slightly, wind speed slower slightly
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled predicted
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Solar coronal hole with geometry still earthfacing - particle streams still expected through the 28th - strong geomagnetic activity in the high latitudes is expected over the next 24-48 hours
Auroral activity is still high, showing up strongly in the northern latitudes.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/TorbjAprn-Thomsen-aurorabjorkis2_1411799037.jpg
Bob
29th September 2014, 02:51
Solar wind - slowing down
speed: 374.7 km/sec
density: 3.2 protons/cm3 - dropping
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/27sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A set of solar coronal holes (with geometry) is still earthfacing, and streaming particles.
There was a brief blip in both electron and proton levels, which lasted no more than an hour.
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/Mag_24h.gif
The blip caused some minor fluctuation in the geomagnetic fields.
This map shows where on the planet the current concentration of Electrons are located over.
http://www.ips.gov.au/Images/Satellite/Total%20Electron%20Content/Regional%20Maps/World_tec.gif
Auroras are still great in the upper Latitudes
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EEdNEdEsup2EcEfrac12-EEcEoNEfrac34N-cd-1_1411940597.jpg
Bob
1st October 2014, 00:14
Solar wind
speed: 375.3 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3 - not too fast, not too dense..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/30sep14/hmi200.gif
Lots of sunspots with some angular alignment - AR2175 is the most potent of the quartet. It has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares. The other three have "beta-gamma" magnetic fields that pose a threat for lesser albeit still powerful M-flares.
The sunspot of greatest interest is AR2177 because it is turning toward Earth.
Auroral oval showing strong auroras
http://spaceweather.com/POES_PICS/poes_latest240_northamerica.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet currently but
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled coming up
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/30sep14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
coronal holes have closed up but there is some interesting geometry forming
An interesting Auroral image with a person in the picture - Northern Norway
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Odd-Theodorsen-_DSC0113b_1412121518_lg.jpg
Bob
3rd October 2014, 20:55
Solar wind - not too fast but proton count is 3X higher than average
speed: 328.3 km/sec
density: 11.4 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/03oct14/hmi200.gif
large compliment of sunspots facing earth - Earth-facing sunspot AR2178 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class flares.
Radio Sun flux up a bit
10.7 cm flux: 149 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/03oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Geometry is present, but no large coronal holes (leaking particles) facing earth
AR2172-AR2173 erupted on Oct. 2nd around 1915 UT, producing an M7-class solar flare. NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed a massive plume of debris flying away from the blast site - A flash of UV radiation from the flare ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, briefly disturbing the normal propagation of shortwave and VLF radio signals on the dayside of Earth.
Auroral images were showing up nicely in the northern latitudes
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marina-Mansachs-Poulsen-03102014_InFront_1412335494_lg.jpg
Bob
6th October 2014, 02:33
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05oct14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=boiphmpn4meuepptsbi62vv9r6
There's currently geometry and a coronal hole earth facing with particle streams.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south
Solar wind is about normal with an average proton count
speed: 399.9 km/sec
density: 4.7 protons/cm3
The particle agitation being a bit lower, the auroral lights are a bit weaker but still pretty
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Petra-Schneider-DSC_8883_1412549876.jpg
Bob
9th October 2014, 05:07
Solar wind speed is not too high, but the proton count is elevated.
speed: 379.3 km/sec
density: 8.7 protons/cm3
The aurora is not too strong overall, but there is some brilliance
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
The coronal solar holes are not large at this time and not exhibiting geometry
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
some nice auroral images from the far north latitudes
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Greg-Syverson-Photography-a-Video-denali-24mm-red_1412827704.jpg
Bob
10th October 2014, 04:32
Solar wind - speed and particle count is dropping to lower normal levels
speed: 333.4 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 125 sfu (about normal to low)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/09oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Although there is not a large coronal hole earth facing, there is geometry forming as seen in this pix
The auroras in Norway are showing some very nice geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Kristin-Berg-Berg-091014_1412893031_lg.jpg
Bob
13th October 2014, 03:25
Solar wind - proton count is HIGH with a slow incoming speed
speed: 312.7 km/sec
density: 11.0 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/12oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is geometry present, and what appears to be a large hole at the bottom portion of the image, but NASA is saying there IS NO large earthfacing coronal hole.. This is odd considering the amount of protons present in the solar wind.
Auroral images are currently weak also, again inconsistent with the low proton count. Earlier.. there were some bright aurorals..
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/JAsup3nAsna-AskarsdAsup3ttir-IMG_4504-2_1413166300_lg.jpg
Bob
13th October 2014, 18:16
Solar wind - proton count is still high, but not excessively elevated, wind speed is increasing
speed: 420.7 km/sec
density: 7.6 protons/cm3
Sunspots visible are small - (interesting)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13oct14/hmi200.gif
Solar coronal holes are not directly earth facing, but there is a large hole shown in the bottom part of the coronal disk..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Real-time Auroral oval band currently is strong, but there is no obvious source for the continued protons and electrons, a bit of an anomaly unless the magnetic fields were just right to take earlier minor cme's and use that as the excitation.
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.4 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT north
(Generally south field orientations result in stronger anomalys being localized) this is not a high field strength and K values are relatively calm.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/PAyl-Ivan-Eithun-Chasing-Aurora-2_1413143729.jpg
Auroras recorded yesterday are still weak, but may be stronger today, considering the dense auroral oval currently happening.
Bob
14th October 2014, 01:31
Solar wind - slightly slower and slightly less protons
speed: 408.5 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 0116 UT
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The coronal image is about the same, no large earthfacing holes but geometry present
Auroral activity again is low, with the auroral oval weak.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Bob-MacArthur-IMG_9844_1413241345_lg.jpg
Planetary K-index is currently
Now at: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max : Kp= 3 quiet
Bob
17th October 2014, 05:39
Solar wind - about the same, average proton count, speed moderate
speed: 401.0 km/sec
density: 4.4 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/16oct14/hmi200.gif
numerous sunspots - From SDO/HMI reports:
"None of the sunspots on the sun's visible disk pose a threat for flares. However, during the next 24 hours, a much more active sunspot is expected to appear over the sun's SE limb. It could be the return of old sunspot complx AR2172-AR2173"
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 126 sfu - slightly higher than normal
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/16oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
no large earth facing coronal holes - some unusual swirling geometry, but no open hole geometry earth-facing.. A bit of a change than earlier. There is a start of geometrical formation in the upper left of the image which should rotate into view in the next few days.
Auroral Oval is thin but bright in that thin band.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/B.Art-Braafhart-B.ArtDSCF8037a_1413503513_lg.jpg
Bob
19th October 2014, 06:15
Solar wind - higher speeds indicated, having passed through, last night, Oct. 18th, multiple folds in the heliospheric current sheet--a phenomenon known as "solar sector boundary crossings.
current speed: 457.0 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/19oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
strong coronal holes are indicated with geometry
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
The solar phenomenon layer pass-through resulted in some spectacular auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ole-Salomonsen-DSC01220-as-Smart-Object-1_SFW_1413685584_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Frank-Olsen-PK1A4262-2_1413678860_lg.jpg
Bob
20th October 2014, 20:54
Solar wind - windspeed higher still than yesterday's report - proton count is still low, but they are coming in fast - no doubt this will wiggle the geomagnetics and evoke some tension..
speed: 502.8 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/20oct14/hmi200.gif
there is that big sunspot crackling over in the bottom left corner in the image.. Sunspot AR2192 has grown even bigger, spreading across 1/3rd more solar terrain today than it did yesterday.
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 160 sfu is about normal.
10.7 centimeters is in the microwave radio band.
The auroral band currently is pretty bright and pretty tight indicating a high level of above earth geometrical energy fields are present (see yesterdays spectacular geometry - what does it look like? Pretty amazing stuff appears to form in the plasma fields..)
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm - definitely rocking and rolling
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/20oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Sun is definitely experiencing some strong coronal holes, earth facing WITH strong geometry. October 22-24 should have the energy from the holes reach earth.
Spectacular Auroras from all that energy being converted in the upper gases surrounding the earth.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/colin-palmer-1075-1014_1413791519_lg.jpg
And Auroras are showing up, in New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Mirko-Harnisch-DnAurora141021_2_1413836684_lg.jpg
Bob
21st October 2014, 07:24
Solar wind - fast wind hardly any protons
speed: 576.7 km/sec
density: 0.7 protons/cm3
Very odd...
SOLAR WIND SPARKS NORTHERN LIGHTS: A high-speed stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, sparking bright lights around both poles. "This evening the auroras appeared everywhere,"
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interesting geometry in the aurora - not a sheet
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Siri-SjAyfjell-bilde-3_1413872872.jpg
Bob
23rd October 2014, 19:00
Solar wind getting back to normal ranges, and particle count coming up to normal levels
speed: 392.6 km/sec
density: 3.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23oct14/hmi200.gif
AR2192 is still active and earth facing.
Radio Sun - radiowaves/noise is hitting the earth from the flare, this reading is higher than normal - microwavelength energy does interact with the nervous system.
10.7 cm flux: 216 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
so the magnetic fields are basically stable, but the microwave fields from the sunspot would be creating an over-all biological "stress"
Aurora patterns are still dramatic
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Greg--Syverson-10571987_837462519620708_3138997511756647238_o_1414017683_lg.jpg
And for Geometry in the solar surface corona
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
all major coronal holes have sealed, instead taking front stage is AR2192 crackling away earth facing..
Bob
25th October 2014, 00:08
Solar wind - speeding up with more protons - the active solar flare pops are contributing to this.
speed: 445.1 km/sec
density: 5.1 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X3 2141 UT Oct24
24-hr: X3 2141 UT Oct24
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/24oct14/hmi200.gif
real blemished AR2192
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/24oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there is a strong linear rod-like geometry forming - if this opens up this could become a substantial 1/2 the width of the sun solar coronal hole, earthfacing..
Radio Sun - microwave outflow still remains HIGH
10.7 cm flux: 227 sfu
Auroral activity is slightly diminished in the northern hemisphere, with a bit of streaking geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chad-Blakley-Strands-copy_1414188079_lg.jpg
The auroral activity in the southern hemisphere (down under) is quite colorful signifying multiple different high atmospheric gases being excited
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Esun-079A9591_1414147767_lg.jpg
this spectral chart illustrates where the different colors appear, what gas is being excited.
http://www.webexhibits.org/causesofcolor/images/content/aurora-spektrum.gif
The strong, green light originates at altitudes of 120 to 180 km. Red Northern Lights occur at even higher altitudes, while blue and violet occur mostly below 120 km. When the sun is "stormy," red colors occur at altitudes of 90 to 100 km.
Entirely red Northern Lights may sometimes be seen, particularly at low latitudes. In earlier times, people often mistook this red light for fire on the horizon.
As the above diagram shows, the different colors of the aurora at different altitudes relate to the varying composition of the earth’s atmosphere and its decreasing density moving away from the surface. The colors depend on the relative proportions of oxygen and nitrogen at the level of the auroral activity.
(source (http://www.webexhibits.org/causesofcolor/4D.html))
Roisin
25th October 2014, 01:18
Definitely not a good time to go scuba diving. lol
Bob
25th October 2014, 23:40
Solar wind - speed currently is dropping and proton count is dropping
speed: 369.3 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
In the past 24 hours, the giant active region has produced two X-class solar flares: X3 (Oct. 24 @ 2140 UT) and X1 (Oct 25 @ 1709 UT)
With the X class flares out of AR 2192 the xray count and electron count, and microwave emission from the massive sunspot continues to be energetically bombarding earth.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25oct14/hmi200.gif
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: X1 1709 UT Oct25
24-hr: X3 2140 UT Oct24
This sunspot cluster, AR2192 remains the largest and most active sunspot of the current solar cycle. Earth-directed explosions are likely this weekend. NOAA forecasters estimate an 85% chance of M-class flares and a 45% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25oct14/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun - still exhibiting higher than normal activity (microwaves hitting the earth from the sun)
10.7 cm flux: 218 sfu
The observations by NOAA and NASA scientists is that the sunspot of interest hasn't produced any massive coronal mass ejection (CME).
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
the current auroral oval is nil at the moment.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sergio-Castillo--fc2_save_2014-10-24-150510-000_1414203443_lg.jpg
is a closeup of AR2192 exhibiting an X3.1 class flare.
As far as the geomagnetics with all this rocking and rolling on the sun, things remain calm.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Both X-flares produced brief but strong HF radio blackouts over the dayside of Earth. Communications were disturbed over a wide area for approximately one hour after the peak of each explosion.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
strong pronounced linear and geometrical geometry is present however no large earthside coronal holes have formed.
Before the current auroral oval calmed down, this was photographed over Alaska - quite spectacular and colorful
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Greg-Syverson-Photography-a-Video-10733714_836977586335868_9021077940702350395_o-1_1414266913.jpg
Bob
26th October 2014, 18:29
Solar wind - wind speed is about normal but proton count IS going up
speed: 369.2 km/sec
density: 7.5 protons/cm3
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1201 UT Oct26
24-hr: X2 1056 UT Oct26
M class has been happening but X2 is still on the prediction plate
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26oct14/hmi200.gif
AR2192 has been in pretty much constant flare mode without violent CME explosions, and is slowly turning away from earth facing..
Radio Sun - still high levels of microwaves hitting the earth from the AR2192 and the other minor sunspots
10.7 cm flux: 219 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet about normal with a bit of jitters..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26oct14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
larger
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26oct14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
no open earth side facing coronal holes, but there is geometry, both in the coronal "features" (the dark spots) and a pronounced sunspot BAND and distribution.. The sunspots are corresponding to vibrations happening appearing at the nodes in the oscillatory fields within the nuclear plasma..
Up in the Yukon, some interesting auroral patterns have appeared
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Wayne-Roberts-_DSC7435_1414273267_lg.jpg
Bob
29th October 2014, 01:54
Solar wind
speed: 413.8 km/sec
density: 3.1 protons/cm3
About normal, but this may pick up when the small cme reaches earth
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28oct14/hmi1898.gif
AR2192 is still glaring as the spot moves out of earth view.
As AR2192 approaches the sun's horizon, it is no longer facing Earth. However, the odds of an Earth-directed radiation storm are higher than ever. The reason is, the western limb of the sun is well-connected to Earth. Solar magnetic fields springing out of that region spiral back to our planet. If a sunspot passing through the area explodes, those spiralling magnetic fields can funnel energetic particles in our direction.
Radio Sun dropping towards normal ranges. Lower microwave levels are good, less bio tension.
10.7 cm flux: 188 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.6 nT
Bz: 2.3 nT south
The south bound field polarity can present with power outages, and electrical upsets. Large cme upsets from AR2192 would be coupled into earths fields should that happen with this polarity.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28oct14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
The geometry in the solar coronal holes are amazing.. NOAA NASA says these are no large earth facing coronal holes :)
The field lines in the Aurora (Sweden) are pretty spectacular :)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Nina-Rajani-_DSC4746_4_1414546945_lg.jpg
Bob
2nd November 2014, 19:00
Solar wind - proton level is high, and windspeed is above norms (slightly)
speed: 481.1 km/sec
density: 8.2 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/02nov14/hmi200.gif
currently a couple earth facing sunspots
POLAR MAGNETIC STORMS: A stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, sparking auroras around the Arctic Circle. This is from the previous earlier AR2192 events.
The display is likely to continue over the next 48 hours. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Nov. 2nd and 3rd
Radio Sun is back down to normal levels as AR2192 passed the horizon and is no longer pointing at the earth.
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu
Planetary K-index - higher obviously than a 1, but stable
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.9 nT
Bz: 4.1 nT north - northpointing tends to be a more stable orientation
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/01nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is a large geometrical solar coronal hole which is earth facing. This is streaming particles towards earth. Solar wind flowing from the coronal hole should reach Earth on Nov. 3-4
AR2192 which was the large sunspot of last month, could possibly be back mid November.
Bob
4th November 2014, 03:15
Solar wind speed is down a bit but the proton count remains up.
speed: 397.8 km/sec
density: 9.2 protons/cm3
Radio Sun microwave output is still now, indicating no active sunspot irradiating earth with intense microwaves
10.7 cm flux: 124 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet - smooth sailing
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/01nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
the coronal holes are still quite large and are streaming particles to the earth, expecting interaction with the ionosphere by the 4th
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.3 nT
Bz: 7.0 nT north - strongly oriented and stabilizing
History on AR2192 the great grand daddy of sunspots for this solar cycle:
AR2192, however, was "all flash." It produced lots of solar flares but very few CMEs--only one, in fact. No one knows why. :)
Because AR2192 hurled zero CMEs toward Earth, earth did not experience any geomagnetic storms during the sunspot's apparition. For aurora watchers, the Great Sunspot was actually a bit of a dud.
Right now AR2192 is transiting the farside of the sun. If it does not decay too much while it is there, the sunspot could return intact to the Earthside before mid-November.
None of the sunspots on the Earthside of the sun are actively flaring.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/03nov14/hmi200.gif
A sunspot just around the bend, however, could break the quiet.
The auroral band has been a bit weak.. But there is some interesting geometry - here are 4 different views over time from the same location:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Thierry-Legault-skibotn2014_mosa1_1414930048_lg.jpg
Bob
9th November 2014, 16:42
Solar wind - slightly faster than normal, but proton count is nil
speed: 442.0 km/sec
density: 0.6 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/09nov14/hmi200.gif
Note the AR2205 cluster.. That one could send out more X-class flares. Nov. 7th an X-flare from AR2205 launched a CME that might deliver a glancing blow to earth's magnetic field leading to unsettled or storm conditions.
Radio Sun - slightly elevated in the microwave band.
10.7 cm flux: 132 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/09nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no coronal holes directly facing, but the bottom of the image shows a massive geometrical hole.
There have been great auroral geometrical images in the last few days:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ruslan-Akhmetsafin-DSC_5847_1415179304_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ruslan-Akhmetsafin-DSC_5886_1415179304_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Nikolay-IMG_4827_1415225761_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Helge-Mortensen-FB-Kattfjordvannet_1415498753_lg.jpg
Bob
10th November 2014, 01:28
Solar wind - slightly up on speed and proton count about normal now.
speed: 457.5 km/sec
density: 4.9 protons/cm3
Radio Sun about the same for microwave emission hitting the earth.
10.7 cm flux: 132 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field is up a bit.
Btotal: 11.0 nT
Bz: 8.8 nT north
Auroral ovals are strong - http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.png
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.png
Coronal hole pattern about the same as earlier in the day.
============
As of - 0600 UT
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field - increased
Btotal: 14.6 nT
Bz: 11.8 nT north
and
Solar wind proton density has increased
speed: 435.9 km/sec
density: 7.6 protons/cm3
===================
Why has the proton level been going up and down all day, wind speed increasing and decreasing?
INFO FROM SIDC - RWC BELGIUM 2014 Nov 10 12:42:18
NOAA active region 2205 produced another M flare (M2.3) peaking at 15:32 UT
as well as another handful of C flares.
The CME corresponding to yesterdays filament eruption is confirmed to be
non Earth directed.
Flaring at M level is expected to continue from region 2205, while old
region 2192 is about to rotate back onto the disc.
With NOAA AR rotating onto the western hemisphere chances for a proton
event are increasing.Solar wind total magnetic field experienced a jump
around 1:30 UT, increasing suddenly from around 10 nT to around 24 nT.
Bz
This was mostly positive after the jump but had peaks to below -8nT and there
was an extended period of -8nT yesterday late before the shock. Solar wind
speed increased from levels around 440 km/s to levels around 480 km/s with
peaks over 550 km/s.
Also density and temperature saw a slight increase.
This thus marks the earlier than expected arrival of the November 7 CME.
Total magnetic field has meanwhile decreased again to levels near 13 nT.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, reaching active levels with
the shock arrival.
Fluctuating solar wind conditions may last for the remainder of the day
with possible periods of active geomagnetic conditions.
Bob
14th November 2014, 02:41
Solar wind - slightly up in speed, proton count normal
speed: 487.9 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13nov14/hmi200.gif
The remains of AR2192 do not appear to pose a threat for strong flares looking at what is left.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13nov14/corpse_strip.jpg
Radio Sun - slightly up indicating solar microwaves are hitting the earth.
10.7 cm flux: 153 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 7.1 nT north
both are in the normal range
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
large coronal holes are earth facing with particle stream energy expected to reach earth by the 17th-18th
Auroral images are linear in geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Aurora-Addicts-2014-11-14-6536-edited-_1415929356_lg.jpg
Bob
16th November 2014, 05:17
Solar wind - speed is up with small amount of protons, not too dense..
speed: 654.1 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3
Radio Sun - microwave energy is UP higher than normal levels. This would increase bio-tension. Anyone notice today has been a tad "stressful" ?
10.7 cm flux: 161 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
auroral activity is STRONG
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
and
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 2.4 nT south
when it is south oriented, energetic planetary activity can happen, quakes, storms, agitation..
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/15nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there are TWO large earth side facing coronal holes, leading to particle streams hitting the earth.
pretty intense aurora - :)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/colin-palmer-2456-1014-3_1416089409_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Tommy-Richardsen-Aurora_on_ice_1024_web_1416106192_lg.jpg
Bob
22nd November 2014, 03:57
Solar wind - a little slower than normal, with a little bit higher proton count
speed: 396.6 km/sec
density: 6.7 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21nov14/hmi200.gif
AR2209 and 2214 pointing this way. AR2209 has been active before and this second go around has shown some CME activity, minor though..
Radio Sun - microwave levels are still up and are similar to when AR2209 was emitting during the previous pass.
10.7 cm flux: 170 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no large coronal holes facing earthside.. There are some strong geometry appearing in the fields though.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 4.7 nT south
Southbound field with a potential for strong aura activity
Bob
23rd November 2014, 03:09
Solar wind - all normal on wind speed and proton count
speed: 417.8 km/sec
density: 3.2 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22nov14/hmi200.gif
AR2209 is still emitting earthbound microwaves, sparking and crackling as it did last month.
Radio Sun is slightly less than it was earlier, still emitting enough microwaves to be energetically annoying.
10.7 cm flux: 163 sfu
Planetary K-index from previous days activity
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Strong geometry and crack like images are appearing, however NASA and NOAA are still saying there are no 'large' coronal holes earth facing
Auroras are quite spectacular with strong geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Aurora-Service-Tours-10410767_297805053751775_8961977219540557759_n_1416691339_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Aurora-Service-Tours-10440770_298073310391616_6637997234279862700_n_1416691808_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ulrich-Goerze-DSC_0381_1416649545_lg.jpg
Bob
23rd November 2014, 18:42
Solar wind - less proton counts than normal, wind speed slowing down
speed: 387.8 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23nov14/hmi200.gif
AR2216 AR2209 and AR2214 are pointed towards earth, leading for some higher than normal microwave energy levels
Radio Sun - microwave energy hitting earth from the sun
10.7 cm flux: 167 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled prediction
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/23nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
although there are no large earth facing coronal holes, there are a few present, not directly pointing at earth. Geometry IS present in both.
Auroras were matching the thin geometrical openings on the sun
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Constantin-image_1416729352_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Constantin--image_1416737628_lg.jpg
Bob
24th November 2014, 22:17
Solar wind - slower still, with even less proton count density
speed: 361.6 km/sec
density: 1.6 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/24nov14/hmi200.gif
AR2209 the sunspot which was crackling last month and this month has traveled to the periphery, is still putting some noise out, but for the most part remains quiet.
AR2216 and AR2217 are emitting microwaves "noise"
Radio Sun - microwave output is the highest it has been in the last week.
10.7 cm flux: 173 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.3 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/24nov14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
No really large earth pointing coronal holes, but with what is present (the darker areas) there is some interesting geometry present
Auroras were quite bright
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Harald-Albrigtsen-DSC_7959_1416863989_lg.jpg
Bob
25th November 2014, 20:22
Solar wind - low and slow - proton count remains low and wind speed is about normal to the slow end
speed: 357.2 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25nov14/hmi200.gif
At least 6 earth facing sunspots producing microwaves aimed at earth.
Radio Sun - microwave emission remains high, but slightly less than yesterday
10.7 cm flux: 172 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.4 nT
Bz: 5 nT south - with a south-pointing field orientation any flare hitting the earth could make for a lot of unsettled activity. The existing solar wind particles that gained access to the earth fields, then fueled the existing auroral displays.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are no current large earth facing coronal holes. There remains discrete geometry in the existing coronal holes.
Auroras -
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A2979_1200_1416907282_lg.jpg
The linear geometry in the coronal geometry matched the aurora patterns observed.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Anne-Birgitte-Fyhn-DSC_0679-3_1416868557_lg.jpg
Spiral of Light
25th November 2014, 20:58
These are spectacular photos! Breathtaking, really.
Meggings
25th November 2014, 22:23
Bob, for years now I have been checking almost daily on the solar winds and proton density. I wondered if ever I emailed friends about particularly high densities, and found this report for February 14, 2013 (copied below).
You will see it gives density as 47.8 protons/cm3.
I do recall some time earlier (a year or more?) seeing proton density up in the 70+ region. Do you have any such recollection of it that high? I've been watching this for many years.
Solar wind
speed: 377.7 km/sec
density: 47.8 protons/cm3
Valentine's Day in Scandinavia began with a magnetic storm. Rob Stammes of the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway, reports: "Our instruments recorded 2o swings in the local magnetic field, which induced strong electrical currents in the ground outside our lab." The needles on his chart recorder were swinging wildly:
(pic given) Overhead we saw some fantastic auroras," he adds.
The storm was caused by a region of south-pointing magnetism in the solar wind that wafted past Earth during the early hours of Feb. 14th. The solar wind's south-pointing magnetic field partially canceled Earth's north-pointing magnetic field, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured in to fuel the storm.
Meggings
25th November 2014, 22:34
Further email searches found 39.9 protons per cm3 on Septemer 22-23, 2013:
FROM SPACE WEATHER DOT COM
Solar wind
speed: 377.4 km/sec
density: 39.9 protons/cm3
Last night in Norway, compass needles swung 1o away from normal and electric currents began to flow through the ground. For nearly an hour, a local geomagnetic storm occured over the northern part of the country.
And here I noted it for February 15, 2014 - so it does go high now and then, doesn't it? :
Yesterday was kinda crappy with heavy energies for me - space weather website listed 45 protons/cm cubed.
Bob
26th November 2014, 00:48
These are spectacular photos! Breathtaking, really.
:) - I've converted some of the auroral patterns to 'sounds', which are pretty interesting. There is a multi-gigawatt power swirling around 'up there', and it definitely converts over into 3D electromagnetic geometry, sweeping through frequency space.
Natives to the regions also report being able to "hear" the sound from the auroras at times..
All receiving methods are reporting similar "sounds".. Some of the experimental work that I do, is to recreate the 3D and 4D energetic pattern in "micro" to be able to understand more so what these planetary energetics are about.. :)
ULF and VLF radio/magnetic coil receivers, or ULF/VLF electrical field receivers are used on-site to detect these emissions. Like the proton and electron flux, I believe these fields affect the biosphere.
Post 84's above (top image) aurora generated these sounds:
http://chanlo.com/images/Aurora 2K.mp3
Good low frequency wide spectrum headphones reproduce the bandwidth pretty well.
Bob
26th November 2014, 01:12
Further email searches found 39.9 protons per cm3 on Septemer 22-23, 2013:
FROM SPACE WEATHER DOT COM
Solar wind
speed: 377.4 km/sec
density: 39.9 protons/cm3
Last night in Norway, compass needles swung 1o away from normal and electric currents began to flow through the ground. For nearly an hour, a local geomagnetic storm occured over the northern part of the country.
And here I noted it for February 15, 2014 - so it does go high now and then, doesn't it? :
Yesterday was kinda crappy with heavy energies for me - space weather website listed 45 protons/cm cubed.
Ya events impart radiation storms, something one doesn't want to be in the middle of out in space with that much high voltage energy coming in..
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/sw_dials.gif
http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/dimages/aceact/20141125.gif
(over time)
Meggings
27th November 2014, 02:30
Your audio above sounds like roaring waterfall. Like Niagara Falls on "loud".
Bob
27th November 2014, 03:43
Your audio above sounds like roaring waterfall. Like Niagara Falls on "loud".
LOT of energy in there. If you listen closely with the headphones u should be able to pick up some of the energy swirls. A long recording would be offering more data, but this was derived from a momentary snapshot (about 10 seconds worth).. Really strong patterns will create in the earth itself moving currents.. Which is one of the logics being looked at for utilising auroric induced currents for a power source.. (free energy)
Bob
29th November 2014, 07:32
Solar wind - large increase of proton density - wind speed not excessive
speed: 401.1 km/sec
density: 24.7 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28nov14/hmi200.gif
8 sunspots aimed this way
Radio Sun - microwave field remain elevated
10.7 cm flux: 171 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/28nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are large coronal holes sending a strong particle stream earthward
X-ray Solar Flare potentials
6-hr max: C4 0201 UT Nov29
24-hr: C4 0201 UT Nov29
Sunspots AR2217, AR2219 and AR2222 pose a threat for M-class solar flares
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.1 nT
Bz: 8.2 nT north
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A3050-1200_1417187861_lg.jpg
Strong auroral geometry is present
Bob
30th November 2014, 22:16
Solar wind - the gusts of protons have diminished from 24.7 down to about 7.9 but have not dropped down to where it normally has been idling.
speed: 414.5 km/sec
density: 7.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/30nov14/hmi200.gif
8 sunspots still are earthfacing
Radio Sun - microwave level remains a bit elevated
10.7 cm flux: 177 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.5 nT
Bz: 7.2 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/30nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there are earth facing coronal holes generating particle streams towards earth
nice geometry in the auroral field is evident
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chad-Blakley-1200_1417379090.jpg
Bob
2nd December 2014, 05:30
Solar wind - windspeed is up, but proton count is about normal
speed: 536.2 km/sec
density: 4.1 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
the auroral oval is strong - parts of Maine US will be experiencing strong aurora tonite
Interplanetary Mag. Field - is strong, and the Z polarity could switch any time to South, if so, geomag activity could increase and auroral activity
Btotal: 6.7 nT
Bz: 0.6 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/30nov14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there is a strong coronal hole with geometry earth facing
there is geometry in the aurora - colors and geometry is quite beautiful
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/colin-palmer-1075-1014a_1417453776_lg.jpg
Bob
5th December 2014, 05:18
Very large southern coronal hole earth facing
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/04dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
this hole has been growing for about 3 weeks and has started to spread upwards from the pole and into earth facing view.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.7 nT
Bz: 3.4 nT south
With a south polarity field, this opens up the geomagnetics to outside assault from solar particles.
Radio Sun - at the moment with the sunspots moving off, microwave assault is starting to diminish.
10.7 cm flux: 154 sfu
Bob
6th December 2014, 01:48
The existing southern coronal hole is building
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field - being south orientation, this opens up the earth's geomagnetic fields to instability
Btotal: 3.1 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/05dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there is a strong linear geometry present in the coronal hole which is earth facing.
Radio Sun - microwave fields being present are slightly elevated
10.7 cm flux: 158 sfu
auroral activity reflects the solar coronal geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Thomas-Becker-Flaming-Northern-Lights_1417818029_lg.jpg
Bob
7th December 2014, 01:25
Solar wind - really picking up speed, but proton count is about normal.
speed: 684.8 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3
GEOMAGNETIC UNREST: Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight. Earth is passing through a fast-moving (~650 km/s) stream of solar wind, and this is causing geomagnetic unrest around the poles
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/06dec14/hmi200.gif
sunspot count diminishing as they rotate away from earth facing.
Auroral energy curves were running in the RED (a bit more calm now but still strong)
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field - strong south orientation in the geomagnetic field allowing particle flux into the earth's magnetic shield.
Btotal: 6.5 nT
Bz: 3.3 nT south
As of 0300 GMT, the field polarity switched to slightly north orientation then moved slightly south, oscillating back and forth, for the most-part closing down some of the energetic assault.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 0.1 nT south
Radio Sun - microwave assault has diminished as the sunspots which were emitting strong fields are moving out of earth view.
10.7 cm flux: 137 sfu
On top of all that a very LARGE earth facing geometrical coronal hole remains open and streaming particles.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/06dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Early auroral images
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Hisayuki-Uto-1128_AM253_00_8sec_1417903787_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/B.Art-Braafhart-B.ArtDSC01660d_1417914143_lg.jpg
Bob
8th December 2014, 04:56
Solar wind - has slowed down a little bit and proton count is a bit down
speed: 657.5 km/sec
density: 2.6 protons/cm3
The particle stream is hitting earth - this is causing G1-class geomagnetic storming around the poles.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08dec14/hmi200.gif
there are 4 predominant sunspots earthfacing with no significant flare activity potential - they are arranged linearly which is interesting
Radio Sun microwave field strength is not as high as it has been with emission from some of the previous active sunspots
10.7 cm flux: 132 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field is still slightly south oriented
Btotal: 4.3 nT
Bz: 0.9 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there is still a strong coronal hole in the south earthfacing and emitting a particle stream - there is geometry present - possibly 3 more coronal holes look like they may open up
Auroral activity is spectacular with a storm happening
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Robert-Postma-NorthernLights0118-copy_1417989375_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A3455-900_1417973983_lg.jpg
Bob
9th December 2014, 07:45
Solar wind - slowing down a bit, and proton count is down a bit
speed: 566.3 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere.png
the auroral oval is touching down into the US at 0700GMT
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field - has been oscillating south orientation
Btotal: 5.3 nT
Bz: 1.5 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/08dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
large geometrical coronal hole in the south, with new ones forming in the NW
auroral patterns are starting to show the newer geometry in the solar corona
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A3558-1200_1418021778_lg.jpg
(looks like the ribbon to the Nexus)
Bob
10th December 2014, 04:28
Solar wind - slowing down a little bit, proton count going back up
speed: 501.1 km/sec
density: 4.8 protons/cm3
With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun has grown quiet.
Radio Sun - microwave earthside bombardment staying low
10.7 cm flux: 133 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/09dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there is still a large coronal hole with geometry beaming particles to the earth
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
about 0400 GMT
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: -0.0 nT - currently neutral, but has been oscillating + - + -
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chad-Blakley-DSC_7669-copy_1418167807_lg.jpg
beautiful aurora patterns, still tracking solar coronal hole geometry
Bob
14th December 2014, 04:26
Solar wind - slowing down and proton count dropping
speed: 456.7 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13dec14/hmi200.gif
8 spots pointed at earth, with at least 2 that have M class flare potential
Radio Sun - mirowave levels are increasing again with the amount of sunspots earthfacing
10.7 cm flux: 154 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/13dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
the coronal holes we were seeing a few days ago have gotten larger and are now earthfacing streaming particles - all holes have geometry. The southern-most hole has mostly closed.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field - with south orientation particle influx into the geomagnetic earth fields remains a high possibility.
Btotal: 5.9 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT south
Auroral oval is STRONG. And quite spectacular :)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Harald-Albrigtsen-DSC_8172_1418523017_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alex-Conu-_X6B7190-copy_1418514239.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marianne-bergli-6_1418491302_lg.jpg
Bob
15th December 2014, 17:53
Solar wind - starting to pick up speed
speed: 506.0 km/sec
density: 4.4 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/15dec14/hmi200.gif
11 sunspots, starting to appear and earthfacing with two with fields strong enough for earth facing flare generation
http://spaceweather.com/POES/pics/usa_thumb.jpg
The auroral oval is almost complete indicating a strong energetic saturation across the pole. Northern Alaska and the Yukon are especially experiencing bright strong aurora currently.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/14dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Earthfacing coronal holes with Geometry ARE currently earthfacing and particles have been streaming strongly and hitting the earths geomagnetic and ionosphere fields.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Oliver-Wright-Green-ice-1_1418588465_fpthumb.jpg http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Kristin-Berg-Nordlys-kristin-berg-131214-11_1418598625_fpthumb.jpg http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Peter-RosAcn-LapplandMedia-a-PhotoAdventures_3_1418661471_fpthumb.jpg http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Zoltan-Kenwell-Zoltan-Kenwell-1_1418590234_fpthumb.jpg
The "nexus ribbon" Alaska
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Arctic-Fishing-Adventures-20141214_1418616892_lg.jpg
Bob
18th December 2014, 07:10
Solar wind - not too fast but density of proton charges is increasing
speed: 376.5 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/17dec14/hmi200.gif
9 sunspots earthfacing with AR2242 capable of launching a direct earth facing CME and X class flare..This sunspot lit off a large M class, 3 days ago.
Radio Sun - strongly sending microwave energy earthwise
10.7 cm flux: 185 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field - northfacing is somewhat shutting out the particle bombardment
Btotal: 6.9 nT
Bz: 0.9 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/17dec14/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Although there are no LARGE earthfacing coronal holes, there are small ones with geometry (as seen above) present. There is a potential for a triangular shaped hole to open.
Auroras were seen in New Zealand, in Queenstown:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Minoru-Yoneto-3922_1418840087_lg.jpg
Bob
21st December 2014, 03:50
The X-Class 1.8 that erupted out of AR2242 emitted a blast of X-Rays and UV at earth.
Interplanetary Mag. Field - with a strong south polarity particles can enter easily.
Btotal: 8.8 nT
Bz: 8.5 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/20dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
numerous coronal holes are starting to open up with geometry but NASA/NOAA reports none are considered singularly "big"
Radio Sun - is showing STRONG microwave energy bombardment earthside
10.7 cm flux: 213 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/20dec14/hmi200.gif
Animation .mov file for the flare - here: http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/h264/2014/12/20/SSW_cutout_20141220T0006-20141220T0130_AIA_131-193-171_S19W28.mov
Strong auroras with geometry are present:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Eva-Kristiansen-_RAW9657_1419065887_lg.jpg
Bob
22nd December 2014, 00:31
Solar wind - about a good normal speed, but with increasing protons
speed: 407.7 km/sec
density: 9.5 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21dec14/hmi200.gif
7 sunspots with the other two having rotated off earthfacing view - AR2242 which lit off a strong pulse Saturday is still in view.
Radio Sun - microwave hitting the earth remains strong.
10.7 cm flux: 203 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
The planetary magnetic field is bouncing and predominantly south oriented, allowing for solar particle influx.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 15.1 nT
Bz: 7.5 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/21dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
numerous small coronal holes are earthfacing with geometry - the southernmost hole is starting to take on a large concerning shape.
Auroral activity remains strong due to the particle energy hitting the earth.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/GApran-Strand-_DSC13742_wm_1419190898_lg.jpg
Bob
23rd December 2014, 07:53
Solar wind - all normal at the moment :)
speed: 346.8 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3
Radio Sun - microwave fields are HIGH, leading to strong stress levels
10.7 cm flux: 206 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field has strongly switched to northerly thereby blocking particle interaction
Btotal: 12.1 nT
Bz: 10.0 nT north
The auroral oval is showing highly diminished activity due to the northern magnetic field orientation.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
numerous small coronal holes with geometry are currently shrinking, so the energetics are coming from the sunspots. There are 9 sunspots earthfacing once again.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/22dec14/hmi200.gif
PRIOR auroral activity:
GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Dec. 21st, sparking a G1-class geomagnetic storm.
For sky watchers around the Arctic Circle, the longest night of the year was filled with colorful lights.
These auroral images are from the 21'st (22nd are showing low activity)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Truls-Tiller-_MG_2600-2_1419219684_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Malcolm-Park-_DSC2373-Edit-Edit-3_1419224759_lg.jpg
Bob
26th December 2014, 00:00
Solar wind - normal speed, and proton count a bit lower than usual
speed: 431.9 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
PEACEFUL SUN: With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun is quiet and solar activity is low. NOAA forecasters estimate a waning 10% chance of X-flares on Christmas Day.
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25dec14/hmi200.gif
down to 6 relatively calm sunspots
Radio Sun - microwave bombardment of earth is dropping down - 140 is about normal
10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.5 nT
Bz: 4.5 nT south - a southern pointing field would allow for particle storms to enter
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/25dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there are two massively large coronal holes set to impinge their particles onto earth fields
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Dane-Walker-monord1_1419519827_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Oliver-Wright-a-b3201412232020-2_1419504971_lg.jpg
Nice auroral images due to the past particle influx hitting the earths fields
Bob
26th December 2014, 17:16
Solar wind - normal
speed: 452.8 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26dec14/hmi200.gif
QUIET SUN: With no sunspots actively flaring X class, the sun is quiet and solar activity is low. NOAA forecasters estimate a slight 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
SUDDEN DIP IN COSMIC RAYS: Every day, Earth is bombarded by galactic cosmic rays--subatomic particles accelerated to high energies by distant supernovas, stellar flares, and other explosions. On Dec. 21st, ground-based neutron monitors detected a sudden decrease in this cosmic radiation. The following plot from the Oulu Cosmic Ray Station in Finland shows the change:
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26dec14/forbush_strip2.gif
Over a 48-hour period beginning on Dec. 21st, a series of three CMEs swept past Earth, delivering glancing blows to our planet's magnetosphere.
These CMEs swept aside many of the cosmic rays that would normally bombard our planet.
The dip in cosmic rays is called a "Forbush Decrease," named after physicist Scott E. Forbush who first described it in the 20th century.
The ongoing Forbush Decrease is producing some of the lowest radiation levels of the current solar cycle. This is good news for airline passengers, pilots, flight attendants and astronauts
Radio Sun - microwave bombardment very slightly above normal (140) due to quiet sunspots
10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field (northernly closing down the geomagnetic fields of earth to outside particle influx)
Btotal: 5.0 nT
Bz: 1.7 nT north
Auroral Oval, NIL, hardly any auroral activity
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
two potentially large holes with potential activity, but not of sufficient level at the moment, to warrant an alert level.. Geometry is present.
This aurora was pictured over northern Russia on the 26th December
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A5428-1200_1419602007_lg.jpg
Bob
27th December 2014, 04:19
Solar wind
speed: 426.8 km/sec
density: 4.0 protons/cm3
ABSOLUTELY NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY OUT OF THE SUN !! :)
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26dec14/hmi200.gif
Not one of these sunspots has the kind of unstable magnetic field that poses a threat for strong flares. Solar activity is low.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field - the slight change to southernly will allow for small amounts of particles to interact with the earths geomagnetic fields
Btotal: 7.2 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2014/26dec14/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
the northernly Coronal hole is starting to close.
There was some strange geometry in the Aurora (weak) over in Norway on the 26th Dec.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Eric-Fokke-Mini-2226_1419633045_lg.jpg
Bob
4th January 2015, 20:36
About that massive Coronal hole...
http://cdn.rt.com/files/news/35/a2/f0/00/huge-coronal-hole-sun.si.jpg
The coronal holes on the sun’s poles may be seen for five or more years. Their shape can vary greatly, though.
It’s assumed that high-speed winds of solar particles coming out of the sun’s dark holes can cause geomagnetic storms and auroras on Earth.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which detected the latest coronal hole, participated late last year in the creation of one of the most impressive images of the sun ever. SDO’s picture was then combined with a photo of the sun’s X-ray emissions taken by NASA’s Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04jan15/coronalhole_strip.jpg
A vast hole has opened in the atmosphere over the sun's south pole, and it is spewing solar wind into space. The gaseous gap, a.k.a. a 'coronal hole,' is colored dark-purple in this extreme ultraviolet image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory
Solar wind - slightly slower than normal, proton count slightly higher than normal.
speed: 391.7 km/sec
density: 8.1 protons/cm3
Radio Sun - microwave levels slightly higher than average
10.7 cm flux: 149 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.7 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT south
Auroral activity remains high due to the hole and flare energy influx into the earth's fields
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rayann-Elzein-IMG_9246_1420391966_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Eric-Fokke-Moland-Lofoten-2329_1420390855_lg.jpg
The strong ribbon-like effect is reminiscent of the "Nexus ribbon"..
Bob
5th January 2015, 19:32
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.5 nT
Bz: 1.7 nT south
more southernly opened allowing in more particles from the open large coronal hole.
Another hole is forming in the upper left surface of the sun earthfacing.. strong solid geometry is showing up in the openings.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Radio Sun - solar microwave is increasing
10.7 cm flux: 150 sfu
Unusual geometry showing up in the auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marianne-bergli-3_1420472225_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Wayne-Roberts-_DSC8542_1420429374_lg.jpg
Bob
7th January 2015, 20:02
STRONG STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE NEXT 24 hours
Solar wind - not too fast but highly indicative of a solar storm being present - proton count is 4 times above normals
speed: 457.8 km/sec
density: 16.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07jan15/hmi200.gif
6 current sunspots
UNEXPECTED GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong G3-class geomagnetic storm erupted during the early hours of Jan. 7th, sparking bright auroras around Earth's poles. What happened? The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near our planet tipped south, opening a crack in Earth's magnetosphere.
Solar wind poured in to fuel the strongest magnetic storm since Sept. 2014.
NOAA analysts believe the fluctuation in IMF is related to the arrival of a CME originally expected to miss Earth.
Radio Sun - the microwave field coming from the sunspots is about normal.
10.7 cm flux: 142 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong - this is a STRONG STORM WARNING to be expected in the next 24 hours..
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 16.1 nT
Bz: 13.8 nT north
Strong NORTHERNLY CURRENTLY, magnetic field orientation which closed the strong southern field that let the massive particle storm in.. THOUGH the geomagnetic field is OSCILLATING, meaning a LOT of instability currently exists in the geomagnetic field..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there are strong coronal holes earthfacing emitting strong solar particles to the earth. This will upset the geomagnetic field of the earth while they are opened and the particle stream continues to emit earth-facing.
Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-EEdEfrac12Efrac34NEdEfrac14Ed_EpEmEm_Efrac12EdEmEsup2EdEfrac12EcN110_1420648758_fpthumb.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_4848_1420645484_lg.jpg
Bob
7th January 2015, 21:01
Just in, due to the strong geomagnetic storm and the CME which was supposed to miss, that HIT instead.. there have been some strong auroras, down south where they don't usually happen.. This below is from Bellingham Washington, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Lenny-Angello-20150107-IMG_0052-Aurora-SV_1420661510_lg.jpg
The solar wind proton density is increasing is now 5X over normal amounts - wind speed is slightly over normal but the proton content in the wind is UP..
Solar wind
speed: 408.8 km/sec
density: 20.2 protons/cm3
Bob
11th January 2015, 07:06
Solar Wind Speed: 621.9 km/sec - a bit fast but proton count is LOWER than usual
density: 1.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10jan15/hmi200.gif
7 active sunspots
Radio Sun - microwave level is up a bit over normal.. That could be due to the other newer sunspot appearing.
10.7 cm flux: 151 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.6 nT
Bz: 4.7 nT south orientation allowing for solar particles to easily enter the geomagnetic field of earth
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are coronal holes with geometry earthfacing
The southermost pole large coronal hole is closing. This is a pattern that has been seen months earlier, such as in a cycle.
Auroral activity has been band-like
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rayann-Elzein-REZ_9365_1420850082_lg.jpg
Bob
12th January 2015, 01:37
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rayann-Elzein-REZ_9832_1421016435_lg.jpg
The zigzag pattern was back with the auroras
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/11jan15/hmi200.gif
Sunspot count is up now to 8
Radio Sun - microwave field level up slightly than before
10.7 cm flux: 152 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.7 nT
Bz: 2.8 nT south -southern orientation allows for particle streams to enter the earths geomagnetic field
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Strong coronal holes have formed plus the southern region pole looks like it is forming a coronal hole again.
Bob
13th January 2015, 07:35
Solar wind - currently about normal levels
speed: 437.5 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
However, an M class pulse induced a strong radio blackout on Earth
SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: Sunspot AR2257 erupted on Jan. 13th, producing an M5-class solar flare at 04:24 UT.
A pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized Earth's upper atmosphere over Australia and the Indian Ocean.
Mariners and ham radio operators may have noticed a brief communications blackout at frequencies below about 10 MHz.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12jan15/hmi200.gif
More flares could be in the offing. AR2257 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that seems poised to explode again. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on Jan. 13th. - it's uncertain if an earth hit of a CME will happen from this event.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.8 nT
Bz: 1.1 nT north - north oriented field structure will have a protection effect for earth's geomagnetic field from outside particle assaults.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
large coronal holes have sealed, but there is evidence in the image of potential for hole formation (see dark areas in image)
In certain locations the aurora was quite bright and geometrical
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Tom-Arne-MoldenAbs-_8102209_1421079031_lg.jpg
Bob
13th January 2015, 23:46
Solar wind - slowing down a little bit, with a little less proton count than normal.. Definitely a dynamic earth sun relationship :)
speed: 380.3 km/sec
density: 2.7 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12jan15/hmi200.gif
7 sunspots, keeping an eye on AR2257
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.7 nT
Bz: 1.0 nT north - still north orientation, allowing for shielding to happen from solar particles
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A hit of a geometrical coronal hole present but not sufficiently large to warrant an alert.
Auroral activity is "interesting", with some geometry present
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Kristin-Berg-sw-kristinberg-3_1421180191_fpthumb.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Tom-Roland-_DSC1871_1421170240_lg.jpg
Bob
18th January 2015, 19:41
Group of earthfacing Coronal holes present
Solar wind and particle count (protons) slightly lower than normal
Geomagnetic interplanetary field orientation - southernly, opening to particle streams
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Sunspot activity - currently diminished, 3 earthfacing sunspots
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18jan15/hmi200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.4 nT
Bz: 3.9 nT south
Radio Sun - microwave influx (lower than normal)
10.7 cm flux: 122 sfu
MAGNETIC STORM STILL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND: Despite a very quiet weekend so far, NOAA forecasters are still predicting geomagnetic activity in response to an incoming solar wind stream. The odds of a polar geomagnetic storm on Jan. 18th are as high as 50%. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for Northern Lights
Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alex-Conu-aurolaavu_fb_1421573771_lg.jpg
Bob
19th January 2015, 17:05
Solar wind - still a bit slower than usual, with lower proton count than typical
speed: 302.7 km/sec
density: 2.5 protons/cm3
The amount of sunspots is going up back to 5 from yesterdays 3
As that happens, the microwave energy hitting the earth from the sun has gone up slightly
Solar X-Ray generation is NIL, to low. (QUIET SUN)
Radio Sun - microwave
10.7 cm flux: 126 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19jan15/hmi200.gif
Coronal hole level is increasing, with pronounced geometry present
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.3 nT
Bz: 4.8 nT south - south pointing allows for charged particle influx from the sun to penetrate the earth's geomagnetic field
Auroral activity currently is lower than usual but still contains unique geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Harald-Albrigtsen-DSC_0304_1421627277_lg.jpg
naste.de.lumina
19th January 2015, 17:16
It seems the same geometric image.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-OwMdu73Om-Q/VL0emGHVUrI/AAAAAAAAvCY/Xi0AXO163xc/s1600/ufos%2B2015%2Bsol%2Bsun%2Bsaindo%2Bportal%2Bstargate%2Bovnis%2Bovni%2Bufo%2Bextraterrestre%2Bavistam ento%2Bregistrado%2Bsatelite%2Bcapturou%2Bcapturado%2Bets.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-EzzBc8q2M-g/VL0hXGuG09I/AAAAAAAAvCk/khYNATYC3oE/s1600/ufos%2B2015%2Bsol%2Bsun%2Bsaindo%2Bportal%2Bstargate%2Bovnis%2Bovni%2Bufo%2Bextraterrestre%2Bavistam ento%2Bregistrado%2Bsatelite%2Bcapturou%2Bcapturado.jpg
WM4rF1bjrzI
Bob
19th January 2015, 20:12
Interesting - watching the same types of images/geometries projected on earth too, in the plasma of the auoras.. I keep an eye on that the coronal holes plus the auroral patterns..
There is quite a tie-in over 93 million miles.. quite an amazing field.
some good references to that are HERE (http://astrogeo.oxfordjournals.org/content/50/2/2.31.full): http://astrogeo.oxfordjournals.org/content/50/2/2.31.full
Bob
21st January 2015, 02:41
Protons are really dense and hitting
Solar wind
speed: 300.2 km/sec
density: 20.4 protons/cm3
VERY QUIET SUN: Solar activity is very low. Not one of the sunspots on the solar disk is flaring, and as a result the sun's X-ray output has flatlined. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 5% chance of M-class flares and no more than a 1% chance of X-flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20jan15/hmi200.gif
Looks like 4 defined sunspots
Radio Sun - microwave hitting the earth from the sun is UP slightly
10.7 cm flux: 130 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.8 nT
Bz: 1 nT south - southern orientation allows for particles to easily enter the geomagnetic field of earth
Strongly geometric Coronal holes are facing earth
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Geometry is present also in the auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Anne-Birgitte-Fyhn-DSC_8011-2_1421713951_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Anne-Birgitte-Fyhn-DSC_8014-2_1421713951_lg.jpg
Bob
21st January 2015, 19:19
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
dual polar coronal holes, with geometry, the southernmost hole is quite large, while the mid hemisphere holes have closed.
those lead to bursts of particles reaching the earths's geomagnetic field resulting in a bit of a bounce, and strong auroras..
Here is a closeup:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21jan15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Solar activity
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21jan15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind - speed has picked up and proton count has diminished.
speed: 479.2 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
Radio Sun - microwave levels starting to creep upwards and when the new sunspot on the mid left side of the sun appears, this should go up in intensity
10.7 cm flux: 126 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.5 nT
Bz: 6.6 nT north - the north orientation closes the geomagetic field a bit, and this bounce in polarity is indicated by the K-index increasing
Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Truls-Tiller-IMG_4402-2_1421865904_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chad-Blakley-ASS-2-copy_1421859930_lg.jpg
Bob
24th January 2015, 04:04
NEGATIVE POLARITY SOLAR WIND ALERT:
In the solar wind flowing past Earth, magnetic fields are tilting south.
This is the kind of "negative polarity solar wind stream" that can produce intense polar auroras.
Sky watchers around the Arctic Circle should be alert for bright lights in the night sky on Jan. 23rd.
Solar wind
speed: 378.5 km/sec
density: 4.8 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23jan15/hmi200.gif
5 sunspots facing earth - AR2268 should be watched
Radio Sun - microwave is LOW with this current sunspot group
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.9 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT south
Two very large coronal holes are earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Matthias-Quickert-IMG_7343_Senja_1422004887_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A6858-1200_1422022305_lg.jpg
Bob
25th January 2015, 20:13
Northern solar coronal holes are closing, but the southern one remains large and opened and is earthfacing.
It is streaming particles to earth's geomagnetic field, and storms are expected through the 28th of January.
Solar sunspots again are diminishing, down to 4 currently with AR 2268 having the most chance for activity.
The existing sunspots are not generating excessive microwave energy to the earth.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/24jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/25jan15/hmi200.gif
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.0 nT
Bz: 0.2 nT south
Radio Sun - microwave emission, less than normal
10.7 cm flux: 125 sfu
Auroras - amazing geometry :)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Eva-Kristiansen-_RAW0881_1422108115_lg.jpg
Bob
28th January 2015, 03:28
Solar wind - has been up and down over the last 3 days, speeds up and down, proton count up and down, quite a roller coaster !
speed: 529.0 km/sec
density: 3.6 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27jan15/hmi200.gif
7 sunspots facing earthwise
Solar microwave bombardment is there fore UP
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 147 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/26jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A very large coronal hole is appearing across the southern pole of the sun.
Amazing geometrical auroras are happening
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_5314_1422368323_lg.jpg
Bob
29th January 2015, 19:40
Solar wind proton count close to ZERO ! Interesting.. nothing is up really except for a massive coronal hole which was building at the southern pole of the sun.
Sunspot count is UP by one.
Radio Sun Microwave is up
10.7 cm flux: 159 sfu
Solar wind
speed: 402.0 km/sec
density: 0.7 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29jan15/hmi200.gif
Emerging sunspot AR2277 poses a threat for M-class solar flares.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.0 nT
Bz: 3.7 nT north - the strong north orientation tends to shield earth from solar particles
The coronal hole is a concern for particle streams in the next 3 days..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
This is massive and starting to spread to the equator of the sun, meaning particles will squarely be emitted to the earth.
This is another view of the magnetic field lines appearing around the hole:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29jan15/ch_strip.jpg
Coronal holes are places where the sun's magnetic field spreads apart and allows solar wind to escape. Streaming along open lines of magnetic force (see the arrows above), hot gas flows outward at speeds exceeding a million mph.
A stream of solar wind from this coronal hole is expected to reach Earth in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of polar geomagnetic storms when the solar wind arrives
Auroral activity:
From down under, New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ian-Griffin-reflections_1422525060_lg.jpg
and
Alaska Poker Flat where sounding rockets have been shot into the aurora for analysis
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_5425_1422493657_lg.jpg
Bob
30th January 2015, 23:23
Solar wind - normal normal
speed: 427.4 km/sec
density: 4.7 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/30jan15/hmi200.gif
8 sunspots earthfacing with 4 with large clusters capable of at least M class flariing
Radio Sun microwave energy beamed earthside is increasing above normal levels
10.7 cm flux: 165 sfu
Planetary K-index - bouncing in polarity a bit, but still quiet
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.0 nT
Bz: 5.2 nT north - allowing for more shielding from the sun's particle streams entering the earth's geomagnetic field
Coronal hole, MASSIVE and building, with geometry present towards the equator
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/30jan15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Spectacular Aurora Geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/peter-evans-IMG_20150123_153349_1422608319_lg.jpg
Bob
1st February 2015, 19:26
Massive coronal hole is sending solar wind to the earth's geomagnetic field creating energetic instability.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Graph of Solar Wind
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.gif
There is additional geometry appearing where it could open up more holes, earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Radio Sun - microwave energy hitting the earth from the sunspots, above normal levels
10.7 cm flux: 154 sfu
This extreme ultraviolet image shows a progression of the hole:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/LATEST/current_eit_195small.gif
Sensor data was obtained in the "Fe XII emission line" at a wavelength of 195 Ångstroms. Fe XII (eleven-times ionized Fe) is common at temperatures of 1.5 million Kelvin.
Bob
2nd February 2015, 05:43
Solar wind speed keeps climbing
Solar wind
speed: 710.0 km/sec
density: 2.8 protons/cm3
Proton count is not too high which is a good thing
This is the ALERT interpretation:
GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A stream of high-speed solar wind is bufteting Earth's magnetic field, and this is sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras shining through the moonlight
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
This is the result of the massive Coronal HOLE facing earth
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.6 nT
Bz: 2.7 nT south - south orientation means that solar particles will be able to easily enter the earths geomagnetic field.
Auroral ribbons are starting to form:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-_17A7335-900_1422797006_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/EcNEcNEfrac34Efrac12Efrac34Esup2Ed-ENEpEfrac34Esup2N-EEdEfrac12Efrac34NEdEfrac14Ed_EpEmEm_Efrac12EdEmEsup2EdEfrac12EcN-900_1422797006_lg.jpg
Bob
2nd February 2015, 20:24
Solar particle storm persists, plummeting earths geomagnetic field..
Solar wind - speed is down slightly, and proton count is down slightly
speed: 652.2 km/sec
density: 1.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02feb15/hmi200.gif
sunspot count is down to 6 earthfacing
GEOMAGNETIC STORM ALERT: A stream of high-speed solar wind is bufteting Earth's magnetic field, and this is sparking G1-class geomagnetic storms around the Arctic Circle. This morning in Alaska, the auroras were bright enough to see through almost-full moonlight:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_5809_1422883397_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/francesco-galbiati-2f_1422885106_lg.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
The massive coronal hole persists on the southern pole of the sun, spreading towards the equator.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Particle stream count and speed and intensity:
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.gif
things feeling odd/tense? Maybe the above is the reason why..
A note on the Kp index that I put in the posts.. the bigger the number the further SOUTH the aurora can be seen..
http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/images/kpmap.gif
Bob
5th February 2015, 17:16
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.gif
Graph of the solar wind, speed and particle density..
Finally the solar storm is subsiding, and the windspeed has been dropping into the normal range, and the proton count is going back up.
Solar Wind - 404.2 km/sec
density: 1.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05feb15/hmi200.gif
4 sunspots earthfacing
Radio Sun microwave intensity, about normal levels
10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu
AR 2277 sunspot is contributing to the majority of microwave energy hitting earth from the sun.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The long lived polar coronal hole persists, and a new one is starting to form towards the left side of the image, towards the equator.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.8 nT
Bz: 4.3 nT south allowing for particles to enter the earth's geomagnetic field.
A rather spectacular historic Aurora for Alaska - RED.. normally green/bluish white, this RED one probably would have sparked intense thoughts in the ancients with the fires in the sky..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Dave-Parkhurst-Cordova-Red-1981-LrgTxt_1423090969_lg.jpg
Below from a few days ago, what a 'normal' Alaskan Aurora looks like:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Nick-Lowery-_DSC7939_1423029124.jpg
Bob
7th February 2015, 17:06
Sitting on plasma 'eggs'
Over the last week there has been a plasma thread sitting suspended over the SW edge of the sun. It is taking it's time growing towards the equator.. As the Sun rotates, it could in another few days be square on aligned in earthview.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05feb15/filament_strip.jpg
Should the thread disassociate (split or break apart), it could send out massive earth sized particle packages into Earth's geomagnetic field, and of course potentially damage satellites, and/or the international space station..
This thread is estimated at 400,000 kilometers long.
Solar Wind and proton density is currently 'normal'.
Solar wind
speed: 403.1 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06feb15/hmi200.gif
3 predominant sunspot groups are being reported, but it looks like there are at least 3 more not being reported for some reason.
Solar microwave levels are remaining slightly higher than normal, but that could be due to one predominantly active sunspot, AR 2277 which is starting to move towards rotating out of view. When it rotates off viewing position, the solar microwave levels should diminish.
Radio Sun Microwave Emission
10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.0 nT
Bz: 0.4 nT south allowing for particle entry into the geomagnetic field
Coronal holes, not particularly strong but some small ones with geometry are starting to form.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
In the bottom southwest corner, one can see the new coronal hole formation, with the similar characteristic of the double peaks showing up towards the equator. To the left snakeing upwards is the plasma thread.
Looking at the thread it could potentially expand uptowards the northern pole.. That would make the thread double in length and energy potential during a separation/breakup could then become massive...
The solar polar coronal hole remains, but is traveling out of direct earth facing view.
Auoral activity, has been moving a lot further south, across the Yukon in Canada, and across mid to northern Alaska:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Aurora-Hunter-image_1423191508_lg.jpg
Bob
7th February 2015, 21:56
The thread/string on the SW corner of the sun continues to grow as the coronal hole to the right of it.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Interplanetary Mag. Field continues to be southernly allowing fo particle influx into earth's geomagnetic field.
Btotal: 9.0 nT
Bz: 4.4 nT south
Size of the string: If the thread were removed from the sun and stretched out, it would easily reach from Earth to the Moon.
It could also be wrapped around the circumference of giant Jupiter many times over. This should be watched.
The Geometry is very clear in this image showing the sizes:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_195/512/latest.jpg
Bob
8th February 2015, 17:29
http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/latest2day.gif
Solar wind speed kicks up
speed: 559.7 km/sec
density: 0.1 protons/cm3
Solar Microwave bombardment
10.7 cm flux: 153 sfu
(Another active sunspot has increased EM levels)
Coronal Holes
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/08feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The large thread filament is seen as the dark snakey band from the lower SW moving towards and thru the equator and towards the northern pole of the Sun
Aurora in Fairbanks
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sacha-Layos-2015_02_07_9801-caliber-lights_1423354604_lg.jpg
Aurora in New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Layton-Findlater-awarua-aurora-6149_1423385370_lg.jpg
Bob
9th February 2015, 17:48
Solar wind speed has been climbing, but took a rapid drop, and then re-accelerated
The coronal holes are taking on a strong geometry
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The plasma thread discussed in the earlier posts, has now grown to about 1,000,000 kilometers. That is huge, and it packs a LOT of energy in the thread. It is squarely earth facing currently. Should it collapse a LOT and I mean a LOT of energy can be sent to the earth in massive flare like reactions. This is a concern and should be watched.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09feb15/filament_strip.jpg?PHPSESSID=5cdi3b6cunc6bc6b4joov8lft2
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09feb15/slinky_strip.jpg
If this plasma thread becomes unstable and erupts, it may eject parts of itself into space. Pieces of the filament falling back to the solar surface would explode upon impact, creating one or more Hyder flares.
Auroras - Nunavik, Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Gilles-Boutin-GBoutin4_1423461465_lg.jpg
Bob
11th February 2015, 20:21
The solar string/thread is 5-10X larger than any magnetic plasma thread ever noted. It is BIG. At the moment it appears to be stable.. BUT how would it gracefully discharge? When and where, while being earthfacing or when it rotates towards the back side of the sun..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Frank-A.-Rodriguez-protuOK1_1423588717_lg.jpg
The current earthfacing coronal hole which has been building over the last few days is squarely earthfacing at this point.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/11feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/11feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Radio Sun microwave fields are about normal to slightly lower levels. This would be due to relatively stable sunspots earthfacing.
10.7 cm flux: 141 sfu
Auroras - Nunavik, Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Gilles-Boutin-GBoutin1_1423670789_lg.jpg
Bob
12th February 2015, 16:52
Large centered Coronal Hole earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12feb15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=ka41it5ubolk6pc7mmh09hbbl0
It looks like there are 3 coronal holes, the predominant one in the center, one to the immediate right, and one on the horizon in the upper left.
Also, there appears to be a NEW STRING/THREAD plasma filament forming in the lower SW corner where the other current massive one had formed.
Possibly at the lower left southern pole, there are signs of another coronal hole forming. Couple weeks ago, the large southern coronal hole was massive and was a concern, then rotated onto the back side of the sun.
Particles are streaming out of the coronal hole(s) towards the earth's geomagnetic field.
Radio Sun - microwave field bombardment of earth today is less than normal.. There are only 3 active sunspots earthside facing.
10.7 cm flux: 131 sfu
From Finland, a graphic map showing periodicity of the Auroras, cyclic patterns of peaking and waning.. These show the cyclic nature of solar emission and how the earth's geomagnetic field and ion plasma in the upper ionosphere interacts (the auroral formation zone)..
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FiRwEOQglYw/VNTGMeUJI4I/AAAAAAAAAPk/-4tup6Y7gPo/s1600/SOD_aurora_stats_2015_01.png
Bob
14th February 2015, 00:27
QUIET SUN: Solar activity is low. With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun's X-ray output has flatlined.
NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of X-flares and a 25% chance of M-flares on Feb. 13th.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13feb15/flatlined.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13feb15/hmi200.gif
3 sunspots, with minor microwave emission to the earth. Sunspot AR2282 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for M-class solar flares.
Radio Sun - microwave emission LOW
10.7 cm flux: 128 sfu -
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.1 nT
Bz: 5.4 nT north (shielding)
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
the large coronal holes are sending particle streams to the earth.
the large solar magnetic plasma thread can be seen stretching above the surface of the sun on the right side of the image. This thread remains a threat as does the new one formed in the lower SW corner (which is currently smaller)..
Bob
14th February 2015, 18:16
Phenomenal view of the intense plasma string/thread filament shown on the Sun's right horizon.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/14feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
4 coronal holes are in view
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Radio Sun - microwave levels beamed to earth from the SUN SPOTS - LOWER than normal
10.7 cm flux: 125 sfu
Aurora - Churchill Manitoba (I've been there, very interesting place for sky activity)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Aurora-From-Churchill-Feb-13-2015-2_1423929426_lg.jpg
Bob
15th February 2015, 21:37
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
That solar plasma thread/filament is proceeding off the right side horizon of the Sun as rotation proceeds.
There are 3 strong large coronal holes and a small new filament above the southermost coronal hole.
One of the sunspots rotated out of view, leaving 3 actively earthfacing with subsequently even LESS microwave emission from the sun hitting the earth.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15feb15/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun microwave bombardment strength
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.9 nT
Bz: 8.0 nT north (shielding present)
Auroral Imagery
QUIET WEEKEND: Solar activity remains low. With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun's X-ray output has flatlined. NOAA forecasters estimate a scant 1% chance of X-flares and a 10% chance of M-flares on Feb. 15th. Solar flare alerts: text, voice
On the 14th Feb., night-sky photographer Alan Dyer recorded red auroras. "It was an odd display. Instead of the usual green, the lights over Manitoba, Canada, on Feb. 14th were a beautiful shade of red," says Dyer, who took this 25 second exposure using a Canon 6D digital camera and a fish-eye lens:
"The bright light at the right is Jupiter," he points out. "Later, the aurora took on the more normal appearance with green curtains topped by fringes of red."
Red auroras are not fully understood. They occur some 300 to 500 km above Earth's surface, much higher than ordinary green auroras. Some researchers believe the red lights are linked to low energy electrons from the sun, which move too slowly to penetrate deeply into the atmosphere. When such electrons recombine with oxygen ions in the upper atmosphere, red photons are emitted. At present, space weather forecasters cannot predict when this will occur.
(Churchill, Manitoba)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Red-Aurora-Feb-14-2015_1423981842_lg.jpg
Norway
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Frank-Olsen-PK1A4572-2_1423995600_lg.jpg
YellowKnife, NW Territories, Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Aurora-Hunter-image_1424022433_lg.jpg
Bob
16th February 2015, 23:04
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/16feb15/hmi200.gif
ONE sunspot - interesting sight indeed !
Microwave emission one would think would be even lower than on the bottom of the scale though at 120
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu
VERY QUIET SUN: For the 4th day in a row, solar activity remains very low. No sunspots are actively flaring, and the sun's X-ray output has flatlined.
NOAA forecasters estimate a very low 1% chance of X-Class flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Three good sized coronal holes are earthfacing.
The magnetic plasma filament, "Thread" is still moving off the right side of the horizon of the sun. It can be seen snaking upwards and downwards giving an idea how high off the surface it remains.
Auroras - Red Green and Yellow Auroras are still being seen
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Einar-Sem-Jacobsen-DSC_0007_1424073844_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Nick-James-IMG_0091_1424126886_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Nick-James-IMG_0279_1424126886_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Benjamin-Knispel-IMG_0893_1424121087.jpg
Bob
17th February 2015, 16:39
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Two large POLAR solar coronal holes earthfacing, streaming particles.
The Solar Plasma Thread/filament is no where to be seen ! In the previous days it was seen looming off the right most horizon, rotating towards the back side of the Sun (where it could still be).
Solar coronal mass ejection is MINIMAL - sun is QUIET 5 days in a row.
3 small sunspots present earthside.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17feb15/hmi200.gif
X-Ray output is NIL
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17feb15/flatlined.gif
Auroras - wild multi-colored from Churchill Manitoba
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Blizzard-Aurora-6-Feb-16-2015_1424155391_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Blizzard-Aurora-8-Feb-16-2015_1424155391_lg.jpg
Bob
18th February 2015, 01:03
The particles from the sun's open coronal holes have reached the earth, and with an opening in the geomagnetic field (south orientation), a full "storm" is now present on earth.
http://chanlo.com/images/storm-17-2014.png
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.4 nT
Bz: 6.3 nT south
Radio Sun - microwave bombardment from the sun - LOW
10.7 cm flux: 118 sfu
Auroras - all over the north and south
Fairbanks
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Mike-OLeary-IMG_5719-1_1424199430_lg.jpg
New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/ian-Griffin-hoopers-glory_1424203396_lg.jpg
Finland
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Karri-Pasanen-_DSC3675-2_1424209659_lg.jpg
Norway
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Kjetil-Skogli-KSBH15_150216_4746_1424217070_lg.jpg
Butedale, BC, Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Cory-Lindsay-DSC_3378_cr_1424220027_lg.jpg
Bob
18th February 2015, 19:14
Geomagnetic STORM still in effect -
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
TWO large solar-polar coronal holes are streaming particles into the earth's geomagnetic field.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm expected to continue
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.4 nT
Bz: 1.3 nT south - allowing the particles easy access to the earths geomagnetic field
Radio Sun - microwave fields are LOWER than normal levels
10.7 cm flux: 119 sfu
The 3 sunspots (2 set to rotate over the horizon) are minimal output, with no flaring.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18feb15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind speed is about normal.
For the 6th day in a row, solar activity remains very low. No sunspots are flaring, and the sun's X-ray output has flatlined.
AURORA - red aurora was still being seen, this one as far south as Montana, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Philip-Granrud-IMG_1391---Downsized-Picture-3_1424277056_lg.jpg
Bob
22nd February 2015, 00:29
Red auroras are persisting
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Pink-Aurora-over-Boreal-Forest-1-Feb-20-2015_1424547803_lg.jpg
Churchill Manitoba
6 Coronal holes, two which are large are earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.9 nT
Bz: 5.7 nT south pointing allowing particles to enter the geomagnetic field
Radio Sun - microwave, still lower than normal
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu
4 small sunspots with no appreciable activity
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21feb15/hmi200.gif
Bob
22nd February 2015, 17:55
Almost EMPTY
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22feb15/hmi1898.gif
4 officially located sunspots, miniscule. Solar MAX in the sunspot cycle has been passed, with an extremely DIMINISHED solar sunspot/CME cycle. After an abrupt (and unexpected) cessation of the massive flares (which were predicted), this sunspot cycle has turned into a DUD. Baffling prediction scientists at the solar observatories. :)
Radio Sun microwave emission is LOW
10.7 cm flux: 116 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.2 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT south orientation allowing for particles to enter the geomagnetic field of earth
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
one coronal hole earthfacing, and a start of a very large south pole coronal hole is forming
Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Yuichi-Takasaka-C529-0678_1424565591_lg.jpg
Bob
23rd February 2015, 21:08
Solar wind - density high, speed normal
speed: 434.3 km/sec
density: 25.2 protons/cm3 - 7times more than usual currently
QUIET SUN: Solar activity is very low. No sunspots are actively flaring, and the sun's X-ray output is flatlining again.
Solar particles are coming from the Coronal Holes sparking geomagnetic (earthside) instability and auroras
Auroras in Montana
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23feb15/montana_strip.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.0 nT
Bz: 1.6 nT south
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Churchill Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Ultrawide-Aurora-4-Feb-21-2015_1424629205_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Ultrawide-Aurora-1-Feb-21-2015_1424629205_lg.jpg
Movie - fun watching
GeuUJyXD_Mk
Cidersomerset
23rd February 2015, 23:09
The universe is awesome.............I did something similar about Saturn
on a smaller scale and since I just posted it on DNA's thread about
Aldebaran / Saturn I had it to hand when yours popped up....LOL cheers Steve...
The Beauty & Majesty of SATURN.......Viewpoint: Saturn snapped as Earth smiled
http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?65361-The-Beauty-Majesty-of-SATURN.......Viewpoint-Saturn-snapped-as-Earth-smiled&p=756920#post756920
Visualized: Saturn's relentless 'hexagon' storm
BY Christopher Trout 2 days ago
http://hss-prod.hss.aol.com/hss/storage/adam/78ada59314964490ef0e68808556801b/120510_SaturnHexagon_NASA.jpg
This isn't the first we've seen of Saturn's six-sided jet stream, but NASA's calling
the GIF after the break "the first hexagon movie of its kind." The "movie" is made
from a compilation of images taken by the Cassini spacecraft, and depicts a
hurricane-like storm at the center of the "hexagon" that has populated the planet's
north pole for decades, if not centuries. For more check out the press release at the
source link below.
http://hss-prod.hss.aol.com/hss/storage/adam/d9c588dc6afcc99862afe9538538894f/120510_SaturnHexagon_NASA.gif
http://www.engadget.com/2013/12/05/visualized-saturns-relentless-hexagon-storm/
(and all explained in David Icke’s new book, The Perception Deception)
http://www.davidicke.com/headlines/
Bob
24th February 2015, 16:58
Solar Storm and Auroral activity - Coronal hole building again on the South Pole of the Sun
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Randy-Halverson-DSC_0629_1424767958_lg.jpg
An Aurora in South Dakota - moving southward for the auroral oval
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/24feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=q5n6j32rqfeqqn38suea8gsqt3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Radio Sun microwave bombardment - LOW
10.7 cm flux: 117 sfu
New Zealand southern aurora
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Ian-Griffin-25-feb-aurora_1424789027_lg.jpg
Bob
25th February 2015, 16:02
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/imgs/sws_dial_5.png
Solar wind speed
446.0 km/sec
density: 3.8 protons/cm3
minuscule sunspots are not flaring significantly resulting in minimum microwave emission earthside
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 114 sfu
Watching the flare activity from the 24th, which was not earthfacing, but oriented about where the filament/thread had appeared on the SW edge of the sun, 9 hour prior there was a geomagnetic storm on the earth, level 2.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
Currently x-ray emission continues to diminish.
There is a very large south pole coronal hole which is spreading upwards towards the equator
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/25feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Auroras - New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Taichi-Nakamura-_MG_0769_1424850744_lg.jpg
The reds and pinks in the aurora are continuing. The brightness in the Yukon was extreme.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Wayne-Roberts-_DSC9425_1424842837_lg.jpg
There has been a building of the geomagnetic instability since late 27 Feb, and now into March, there is a peaking around a level 5 kp index.
Radio Sun microwave is up slightly from the previous days, but is still within the lower than normal levels
10.7 cm flux: 123 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.2 nT
Bz: 0.6 nT south - allowing for particle entry into earths geomagnetic field
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/28feb15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
A rather massive square earth facing coronal hole is sending particles earthward.
Looking at the western (left) horizon at the equator, one can see an elevated new Filament.
Red and Green auroras were seen in the northern latitudes
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chad-Blakley-1200-copy_1425102813_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/PActur-Gauti-Valgeirsson-IMG_7300_1425169629_lg.jpg
SOLAR WIND SPARKS NORTHERN LIGHTS: A solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of Feb. 28th, causing compass needles to swerve and sparking bright auroras around the Arctic Circle.
Radio Sun Microwave emission beamed towards earth
10.7 cm flux: 123 sfu - slightly below normal
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01mar15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A large coronal hole with geometry is earthfacing sending particles into the geomagnetic field of earth
Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Felicia-Roska-image_1425241248_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/ROBIN-NATLEY-Looking-Up_1425226102_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/valter-the-bird-in-Northern-Lights_1425231263.jpg
Solar wind - speed higher than normal, proton count down.
speed: 610.2 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02mar15/hmi200.gif
SOLAR FLARE AND RADIO BLACKOUT: Departing sunspot AR2290 erupted on March 2nd at 15:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) caught a twisted plume of plasma rising up from the blast site on the sun's northwestern limb:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02mar15/m3_strip.jpg
A pulse of extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere on the dayside of our planet.
This caused a blackout of radio transmissions at frequencies below 10 MHz. The effect was particularly strong above South America and parts of the south Atlantic.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 0.8 nT south - allowing an entry of particles into the earths geomagnetic field
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02mar15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
One major coronal hole with geometry at the southern pole and 3 more forming.
Auroras - Fairbanks Alaska
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/J-N-Hall-4675_1425290568_lg.jpg
Auroras - New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Taichi-Nakamura-sw_taieri_1425289709_lg.jpg
Red glows could be due to the high altitude electron excitation happening.
When an excited atom or molecule returns to the ground state, it sends out a photon with a specific energy. This energy depends on the type of atom and on the level of excitement, and we perceive the energy of a photon as color. The upper atmosphere consists of air just like the air we breathe.
At very high altitudes there is atomic oxygen in addition to normal air, which is made up of molecular nitrogen and molecular oxygen. The energetic electrons in aurora are strong enough to occasionally split the molecules of the air into nitrogen and oxygen atoms.
The photons that come out of aurora have therefore the signature colors of nitrogen and oxygen molecules and atoms.
Oxygen atoms, for example, strongly emit photons in two typical colors: green and red. The red is a brownish red that is at the limit of what the human eye can see, and although the red auroral emission is often very bright, we can barely see it.
http://odin.gi.alaska.edu/FAQ/density.gif
Sunspots racing off the SouthEastern horizon of the sun..
Radio Microwave emission is still lower than normal, at 126 sfu.
Major coronal holes, large are forming across different parts of the sun
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05mar15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=o5uqbnctr30n9v4nqqq0ut62q1
Bob
11th March 2015, 21:06
http://soho.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_284/1024/latest.jpg
coronal holes with geometry, and a nasty sparky AR 2297 sunspot..
The sunspot launched an X2 flare and a probably CME earthward ( with speeds exceeding 1,400 km/s ).. Lower frequency radio was knocked out during the period of the flare event and for a time afterwards.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
The x-ray flux graphic showed a regular building of flare activity over the last day and a half.
Alaska, Fairbanks Aurora
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sangku-Kim-_P6B1396-s_1426038093_lg.jpg
Bob
14th March 2015, 18:45
CME watch - where's the CME from the AR2297 sunspot that zapped out a sparky X-ray ionization burst from the X class flare a few days ago..
More bursts are in the offing. AR2297 has an unstable 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for 'radio-active' explosions. NOAA forecasters estimate a 70% chance of M-class flares and a 20% chance of X-flares on March 14th.
WAITING FOR CMES: A series of minor CMEs expected to hit Earth on March 13th have not reached Earth. Nevertheless, NASA and NOAA analysts think they are still coming. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of G1-class geomagnetic storms on March 14th in response to a belated arrival.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/P-M-HedAcn-Norhtern-lights-at-Sea_1426321534_lg.jpg
Large coronal holes with geometry facing earth.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12mar15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.9 nT
Bz: 0.6 nT north (protective)
Bob
16th March 2015, 18:11
Solar wind
speed: 423.7 km/sec
density: 13.1 protons/cm3
Speed is about normal but the proton count is up indicating that either the CME x-flare had reached earth's geomagnetic field, and/or the open Coronal Holes particle stream has reached earth.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/16mar15/hmi200.gif
3 active sunspots, with AR 2297 starting to move off the earthfacing view. AR 2297 is what lit of the xclass flare days ago.
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 114 sfu which is LOW, indicating the facing solar sunspots are not emitting extremes. All is quiet in the microwave bands.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.3 nT
Bz: 8.9 nT north - indicating a protection field is in effect
It is a bit bouncy though.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/16mar15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A very large linear geometrical Coronal hole is forming across the surface of the sun and IS earthfacing. A large southern polar coronal hole is enlarging.
Auroral oval currently is NIL
HOWERVER...
AURORA OUTBURST: Over the weekend, sky watchers around the Arctic Circle witnessed a magnificent outburst of auroras. "It was utterly amazing," reports Oliver Wright of Abisko, Sweden. "March 14-15 was the best ".
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15mar15/aurora_strip.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Oliver-Wright-FJ8R6633_1426399349.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Maxim-Letovaltsev-aurora_sredniy_1426513462_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Yuichi-Takasaka-C433-3360_1426509927_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rob-Stammes-MRT-14-15_1426423622_lg.jpg
Auroral activity monitoring equipment to look at the ionospheric excitation conducive for Auroral formation
Bob
17th March 2015, 23:06
Geomagnetic Storm is here, on the 17th from the CME of the other days..
Solar wind
speed: 512.9 km/sec
density: 3.9 protons/cm3 - speed is up a little bit, and proton count down a little bit
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17mar15/hmi200.gif
AR2297 is rotating off the horizon, leaving two sunspots earthfacing.
PATRICK'S DAY GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 17th at approximately 04:30 UT.
At first, the impact sparked a relatively mild G1-class (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm. Since then, however, the storm has intensified to G4-class (Kp=8), ranking it as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. This storm is underway now.
Before sunrise on St. Patrick's Day, bright auroras were sighted over several northern-tier US states including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Montana, the Dakotas and Washington. Possibly as far south as Colorado.
Up on the Dalton Highway in Alaska - AURORAS
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17mar15/alaska_strip.jpg
Check out these numbers:
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 7 strong
24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 21.3 nT
Bz: 15.4 nT south - allowing for incoming particles to affect the earth geomagnetic field.
Bob
18th March 2015, 19:45
Coronal holes continue to grow
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18mar15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=20hk6nqhe6713kgfutk4cg6e20
These are earthfacing and streaming particles to the earth
Sunspot AR2297 is moving off the earthfacing side of the sun, and solar microwave output is therefore diminished
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 114 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18mar15/hmi200.gif
We're still in the middle of a LARGE geomagnetic storm from the CME's that hit, instead of a glancing blow, directly spot on (twice)
Auroras are quite spectacular and have moved pretty far south -
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18mar15/kiruna_strip.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.5 nT
Bz: 1.0 nT north - slightly north allowing for some shielding
At first, the CME's impact had little effect, producing no more than a minor G1-class (Kp=5) magnetic disturbance.
As Earth moved into the CME's strongly-magnetized wake, however, the storm intensified until it became a G4-class (Kp=8) event.
For more than 9 hours, it was the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle.
The glow of Northern Lights was seen as far south as Kansas and Virginia.
New Zealand Aurora
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Minoru-Yoneto-3970_1426703380_lg.jpg
Finland
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Petri-Peltonen-IMG_4130_2_small_1426706230_lg.jpg
Ohio
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Glenna-Bayer-IMG_8180-1-4_1426705243_lg.jpg
Cape Cod, Mass
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chris-Cook-aurora-031715_1426687075_lg.jpg
Axman
18th March 2015, 19:56
What do you think the suns up to Bob I trust your expertise.
The Axman
Bob
18th March 2015, 20:17
I had discussed this with BuddhasPalm last November, that with coming out of the solar peak for this cycle, the coronal holes need to be watched, as there could be a formation of nuclear isomers forming. In those atomic isotopes, they hold immense energy.. These tend to appear during when a solar cycle is peaking and on the downward cycle.. WHEN they explode, some of that instability lights off an intense gamma ray energy blast, and if it is earth facing thing's are going to light up..
I'm keeping an eye on this, as we could find some large CME's still appearing.. Again, all normal, but the interesting point going back to 2012 February, this cycle was supposed to be the mother of all solar activity.. it hasn't happened, in fact, it bothers noaa and nasa researchers, that predictions failed. My feeling is an "intervention" happened.. The intervention needs to continue to hold the lid on the kettle and let thing go back to a nice rolling boil.. a few more years left for that to happen, the slowdown..
reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/science/space/the-sun-that-did-not-roar.html?_r=0
This is the height of the 11-year solar cycle, the so-called solar maximum. The face of the Sun should be pockmarked with sunspots, and cataclysmic explosions of X-rays and particles should be whizzing off every which way.
Instead, the Sun has been tranquil, almost spotless. (Written by KENNETH CHANGSEPT. 23, 2013 - obviously spots picked up at times but not really extra-ordinary as predicted)
As W. Dean Pesnell, the project scientist for NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, dryly noted, “We’re not having much of a solar maximum.”
A week ago, a solitary sunspot blemished an otherwise blank yellow disk. In the ensuing days, a few more specks appeared, but even a small explosion, or coronal mass ejection, last Thursday seemed like the halfhearted effort of a slacker star.
“The truth of it is there isn’t a lot going on,” said Joseph M. Kunches, a space scientist at the Space Weather Prediction Center. “It’s been a bit of a dud. You look at the Sun today and you say, ‘What?’ ”
For those who depend on Dr. Kunches’s work, like satellite operators and power companies, that is actually good news. One of the worries in our highly technological 21st-century civilization is that a direct hit on Earth by a gargantuan solar storm could disable satellites and overwhelm wide swaths of power grids. A quiet Sun makes that much less likely.
For scientists trying to understand the dynamics in the interior of the Sun, it has been a humbling experience enlightening them about how much they do not know. “If there’s anyone who has figured it out, I haven’t heard, that’s for sure,” said Douglas Biesecker, a physicist at the Space Weather Prediction Center and the chairman of a panel that had issued predictions about the solar cycle.
They do have a basic understanding. Inside the Sun, flows of electrons and protons generate magnetic fields that undulate on roughly an 11-year schedule. The roiling of the fields create regions that are cooler and darker — sunspots. The twisting magnetic fields within sunspots periodically snap, releasing enormous amounts of energy in solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
But some solar cycles are ferocious while others remain calm. Why the cycle is 11 years is another mystery.
This cycle, No. 24 since scientists started counting, has been befuddling from the start. Some expected an active cycle, similar to the ones of the recent past. Others predicted that this one would be quieter than usual; those predictions looked prescient as the lull of solar minimum stretched longer and deeper than expected. In 2008, the Sun was spotless on 266 days — the blankest in half a century. The following year, when the percolating of sunspots should have picked up, the Sun was blank for 260 days.
Solar activity picked up in 2010 and especially 2011. Then the number of sunspots started dropping again. That was not necessarily surprising. In some previous cycles the Sun’s northern hemisphere became active first, and scientists expected a second peak in sunspots as the southern hemisphere entered its active period.
The southern hemisphere indeed began to perk up, but then leveled off and has remained that way for the past year, leading to more head-scratching. “In all honesty, it really feels like the Sun can’t make up its mind,” Dr. Biesecker said. “It’s just this flat mesa, and it’s not budging.”
If there is no second peak, and solar maximum actually occurred two years ago, then Solar Cycle 24 would be extremely odd — late to start and early to end. “What would surprise me is if it didn’t pick up over the next year,” Dr. Pesnell said.
Bob
19th March 2015, 15:46
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
A bit sparky from the sunspots yesterday, but rather calm today on the Sun.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19mar15/hmi200.gif
the emission from sunspot AR2297 is now not earth pointing rotating off the rightmost horizon of the sun
Microwave emission then is LOW (which is coming primarily from active sunspots)
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 115 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.7 nT
Bz: 3.6 nT north
We're still in a geomagnetic STORM condition, from the CME which appeared earlier in the week.
The north oriented interplanetary magnetic field is offering some shielding tho.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on March 19th as Earth exits the CME's wake.
Auroras are quite active - ALASKA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-Murray-MSM_8197_1426740378_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-Murray-MSM_8043_1426740378_lg.jpg
New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Grant-Grieve-20150319-171A4443-3_1426763213.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Grant-Grieve-20150317-171A4195-4_1426741679_lg.jpg
The geometry in some of the auroras appears to be tracking the geometry appearing in the Coronal holes
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19mar15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Bob
20th March 2015, 18:35
Solar induced Geomagnetic Storm still in Effect
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY: Minor (G1-class) geomagnetic storms are underway around the Arctic Circle.
These are, essentially, reverberations from the March 17th CME strike amplified to storm-strength by a newly-arriving solar wind stream.
Solar wind
speed: 562.2 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3
Speed up a little bit, with proton count down, a pattern that has been seen often.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20mar15/hmi1898.gif?PHPSESSID=rhpkfeuluivcc80sespk315581
AR 2297 still has not fully rotated off the horizon, and AR 2302 close to the horizon holds potentials for M class flaring.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
There is a current calmness in the GOES X-Ray flux graphic at the writing of this post (right most part of the graphic)
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 115 sfu - microwave levels hitting earth from the sunspots remains LOW
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.0 nT
Bz: 2.3 nT south - allowing for particle entry in the geomagnetic field of earth.
A bit bouncy on the geomagnetic field polarity from the CME's energy hitting and turning on the Auroras
The large earth facing coronal holes are sealing a bit with still some large areas of potential opening .. the equator region and the southern polar area should be watched.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20mar15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=rhpkfeuluivcc80sespk315581
Is this wild or not? Fairbanks AK
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-Murray-MSM_8382_1426828336_lg.jpg
Ontario Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Paul-Beebe-IMGP4471a_1426870596_lg.jpg
Bob
22nd March 2015, 17:47
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22mar15/hmi200.gif
The major sparky sunspots have rotated off the horizon and the xray flux is QUIET.. however...
Earth currently STILL remains in major GEOMAGNETIC STORM instability..
SOLAR WIND SPARKS GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A high-speed (600 km/s) solar wind stream is buffeting Earth's magnetic field, sparking mild-to-moderate geomagnetic storms around the Arctic Circle. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras on March 22-23..
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 114 sfu - low levels of microwave hitting the earth from the sunspots that are present.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.3 nT
Bz: 1 nT south - allowing for particles to enter the earths geomagnetic field..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21mar15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The coronal holes across the equator have closed for the most part, but there is a large band starting to appear across the southern pole.
The auroric geometry is still appearing to be tracking the coronal hole geometry ..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/phil-halper-DSC05740_1426872029_lg.jpg
Wiseman, Alaska
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Dirk-Obudzinski-DSC_4763_1426900971_lg.jpg
Bob
26th March 2015, 17:29
The geomagnetic field has finally calmed down.
Sunspot number is currently 7
There is a very large coronal hole earthfacing (it is geometrical)
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/26mar15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=dftee97eu4ubojre9hvtolaa66
current auroric activity is LOW
prior auroric activity has been spectacular
Alaska
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Dirk-Obudzinski-IMG_5562_1427310829_lg.jpg
solar microwave levels
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 138 sfu - close to normal levels with active sunspots..
Solar wind
speed: 543.4 km/sec
density: 2.1 protons/cm3 - a little fast, but not a high proton count
Sunspots 2 almost blank..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/03apr15/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 121 sfu - slightly up for just 2 sunspots so the contribution is coming from one or both of them.. normally 150 would be expected with an average sunspot count.. with two or three before we have been at about 110-114
Coronal holes - there are bands of coronal holes, linear formed which are sending particles to the earth, and could be contributing to the increases in the solar wind directed into the earth geomagnetic field.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/03apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
As predicted, a solar wind stream hit Earth's magnetic field during the late hours of April 2nd.
The initial impact did not spark a geomagnetic storm. However, geomagnetic storms could develop on April 3rd as Earth moves deeper into the stream.
Current auroras (possibly more to appear in the next day or so) - notice the narrow banding, similar to the coronal holes...
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/LIMO-JOHN-P4020036_1428010687_lg.jpg
This image is quite spectacular - a HAND ?
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/LIMO-JOHN-P3310131_1427830110_lg.jpg
Solar wind - A Calm Day :)
speed: 379.6 km/sec
density: 2.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07apr15/hmi200.gif
4 earthfacing sunspots with no large output
AR2320 has the only potential for a small M class flare.
Radio Sun Microwave - LOWER than normal
10.7 cm flux: 126 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: 2.7 nT north
Auroral activity NIL currently
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07apr15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=70rparu2be1s13plldcurar6u3
There is a potential for the two earthfacing small coronal holes to expand in size, there is geometry forming.
Note in the upper LEFT side of the coronal image, there is a small string present.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Christoffer-Svenske-DSC_7985-1_1428329999.jpg
A little blip of a M1 class flare popped out of AR2320 sending a straight on CME earthwise... with a scheduled arrival time of the 9th April there-a-bouts..
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/08apr15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind
speed: 344.6 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3 - about normal
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/08apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
the small coronal holes do have geometry and are earthfacing
Alaskan Auroras
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/John-Pennell-DSC_7824_1428469404_lg.jpg
AR2320 Sunspot has been blipping a few C class flares towards earth.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09apr15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind proton count is up indicating that the small AR2320 earthside CME of a few days ago is reaching earth, and turning on Auroras.
speed: 380.3 km/sec
density: 8.9 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.8 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south
The geomagnetic fields are bouncing a bit, but still considered relatively 'quiet'..
There exists 3 coronal holes and a coronal hole at the southern polar region of the sun. Two are present with unique geometry.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09apr15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Joanne-RIchardson-FOR-WEB_001-85_1428287108_lg.jpg
(More auroral images later after sunset for the 9th)
Bob
11th April 2015, 19:12
Solar wind
speed: 367.4 km/sec
density: 7.8 protons/cm3 - remains up in proton count but not excessively high
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/11apr15/hmi200.gif
A new sunspot on the left most edge of the image above is sparky, and could pose a risk of higher intensity flares.
Radio Sun microwave ls low - this may change as the new sunspot rotates into view
10.7 cm flux: 115 sfu
Auroral activity is high due to the particle influx from the small CME from AR2320
There are coronal holes present
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/11apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.0 nT
Bz: 2.0 nT north
Auroras geometry tracking coronal hole geometry
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Bruce-Smith-DSC_6109_1428778708_lg.jpg
Bob
13th April 2015, 17:30
Solar wind
speed: 323.1 km/sec
density: 12.1 protons/cm3 - solar proton wind count has been increasing since the 11th
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13apr15/hmi200.gif
A new sparky large sunspot group AR2321 is making its view earthside
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13apr15/newspot_strip.jpg
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 134 sfu - microwave emission field is increasing dramatically with the new sunspot group appearing.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
there ARE geometrical coronal holes earthfacing
Faint Auroras were seen as far south as NY State (Mexico, NY).
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alex-McCombie-10922588_942490462450208_5793525266043059181_o_1428941881_lg.jpg
Bob
17th April 2015, 04:43
Solar wind speed is up triggering a minor geomagnetic storm on Earth
speed: 697.2 km/sec
density: 1.9 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15apr15/hmi200.gif
6 sunspots - AR 2321 remains the most active with a potential for more M class outbursts
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 141 sfu - microwave bombardment approaching near normal levels for this sunspot cycle
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.1 nT
Bz: 3.4 nT south - this field orientation (S) allows for good particle entry into the earth's geomagnetic field
Aurora activity - Scotland
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Lorna-Alan-a-Dani-P4171765_1429234023_lg.jpg
Anacortes, Washington State, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Joel-Askey-Aurora-Cypress-Small_1429213291.jpg
Active earth facing Coronal Holes:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Bob
27th April 2015, 21:44
Coronal hole earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
sunspot level is dropping
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27apr15/hmi200.gif
as is the solar microwave levels beamed to earth
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 119 sfu
Folks are watching a massive FILAMENT that has been building on the NE corner of the Sun
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27apr15/scale_strip.jpg
the filament is large as illustrated and could pack a most intense punch directed to earth if it rotates squarely on and in full view. Notice how much larger it is than sunspots.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.9 nT
Bz: 2.8 nT south
The geomagnetic earthside fields are relatively quiet, but the mag field is showing south, which can allow for particle influx.
Auroral activity did drop far south, this image is from GreenBay Wisconsin, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/James-t.--image_1429974145_lg.jpg
Bob
29th April 2015, 03:36
Filament erupted
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/28apr15/eruption_strip2.jpg
The erupting filament split the sun's atmosphere, creating a "canyon of fire." The glowing walls of the canyon trace the original channel where the filament was suspended by magnetic forces above the sun's surface. From end to end, the structure stretches more than 350,000 km
This eruption evoked a coronal mass ejection (CME), and is also emerging from the blast site: SOHO image. At first glance, the CME appears to be moving well away from the sun-Earth line.
Bob
29th April 2015, 17:00
Safe - Filament's CME will miss, stability present
CME TO MISS EARTH: Yesterday, a massive filament of plasma exploded away from the sun's northeastern limb.
The CME it hurled into space (movie) is not expected to hit Earth. Geomagnetic activity should remain low for the next 3 days..
Solar wind - Normal
speed: 313.6 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3
Sunspots - nil
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29apr15/hmi200.gif
Almost no sunspots = almost no solar activity. The sun's X-ray output has flatlined, and radio microwave bombardment is LOW.
Radio Sun Microwave levels..
10.7 cm flux: 108 sfu - LOW
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 1.8 nT north
HOWEVER.. Large CORONAL hole currently earthfacing, meaning particle streams from the hole will be streaming to earth. May 3rd/4th is the anticipated arrival date.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29apr15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A faint auroral glow was seen in Wisconsin USA, meaning the aurora was moving southwards, expanding from the earth's polar locations.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Jake-Stehli-Kp2-aurora_1430253891.jpg
Solar is QUIET..
about as quiet as it can get..
Auroral activity is NIL
There is a small coronal hole earthfacing..
NOAA scientists are well, flabbergasted - it is beyond quiet.. ATM
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 102 sfu microwave from sunspots NIL
Coronal Hole
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
May 6th, the CME finally reached Earth..
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY: A minor geomagnetic storm is in progress on May 6th following the arrival of a CME at 01:43 UT. The CME's weak impact did not immediately spark bright auroras. However, storming could intensify as Earth passes through the CME's wake.
Solar wind speed is about normal but with a higher proton particle count.
Solar wind
speed: 449.1 km/sec
density: 11.7 protons/cm3
X-FLARE: The sun is no longer quiet. Emerging sunspot AR2339 unleashed an intense X2-class solar flare on May 5th at 22:11 UT. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory captured the extreme ultraviolet flash:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05may15/x2_strip.jpg
Note the location of the sunspots... AR2339 probably will evoke more x-class flares and light off more CME's for a week.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06may15/hmi200.gif
Radio sun microwave levels are increasing, still under the 'normal levels'
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 128 sfu
Current Auroral activity is HIGH, but not very high..
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 13.7 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT south
Coronal holes are small, being dwarfed by the sunspots kicking up
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Auroral activty over Hudson Bay, Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Doc-Searls-2015_04_12_lax-lhr_076z_1430920894_lg.jpg
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/08may15/hmi200.gif
AR 2339 sunspot that lit off the X2 the other day is continuing to rotate into view.
The Microwave electromagnetic field bombardment of earth from the sun is increasing once again.
Radio Sun Microwave
10.7 cm flux: 147 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/08may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is set of coronal holes earthfacing with geometry forming
Hilarious - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9Q2sViY5TU&index=3&list=PLHSoxioQtwZeQaRnO5_9AJB2RmevUpuPT talks about a massive plasma wave zapped out from the Sun.. That is about as disinforming and sensationalistic as some of the PT Barnum circus exibitions of yesteryear..
Nothing spectacular is affecting the earth from the X2 beamed out into space a few days ago.. But you-tubes and frantic sensationalists are trying to gleen some attention..
Nothing to see there, despite their chest-beating ..
During the early hours of May 9th, a magnetic filament snaking over the sun's northeastern limb rose up and flung itself into space.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09may15/loop_strip2.jpg
What is significant with AR2339 sunspot:
While this eruption was underway, another magnetic filament connected to sunspot AR2339 also erupted. The two wild filaments combined to produce a bright CME.
The expanding cloud does not appear to be heading for Earth. It was photogenic, but not geoeffective. The sensationalist websites are harping on a non-event.
More explosions are in the offing. Behemoth sunspot AR2339 has a 'beta-gamma' magnetic field that harbors energy for strong solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of M-flares and a 10% chance of X-flares on May 9th.
Solar wind particle count remains elevated
Solar wind
speed: 342.0 km/sec
density: 11.5 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12may15/hmi200.gif
at least 10 sunspots earthfacing currently, leading to a higher than normal microwave bombardment of earth by the sunspots
Radio Sun microwave emission levels
10.7 cm flux: 160 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.5 nT
Bz: 7.3 nT south remaining OPENED allowing for solar particle coupling to the earth's fields
Coronal hole earthfacing - no significant geometry present
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Auroral activity was showing up more southerly than usual
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Mike-Daniels-northern-lights-5-10-23_1431324515_lg.jpg
The above is from Hamilton, Montana USA
Solarwind speed is HIGH
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12may15/hmi200.gif
At least 10 sunspots earth facing.
Speed: 659.9 km/sec
density: 1.3 protons/cm3
GEOMAGNETIC STORM: An interplanetary shock wave hit Earth's magnetic field on May 12th. Now, on May 13th, a high-speed stream of solar wind has arrived. A G1-class geomagnetic storms around the poles is happening currently.
Radio Sun microwave field bombarding earth - HIGH
10.7 cm flux: 163 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.0 nT
Bz: 4.7 nT north
As long as the interplanetary Magnetic Field continues to remain NORTH, particles will be deflected. When it points south, particle influx increases dramatically.
Coronal holes are still earth pointing - combined with the CME patterns the particle influx is strong.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Auroras - RED auroras are being seen in multiple locations
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Justin-Phillips-holy_filtered_1431490125_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Brad-Dwight-May-12th-Barn-5DIIWeb-8920_1431517217.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Thomas-aurora1gs_1431513975_lg.jpg
Activity:
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15may15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
In the bullseye.. Large geometrical coronal hole earthfacing.. the particle stream should hit earth on May 18-19.
Radio Sun microwave level bombarding earth is starting to decline
10.7 cm flux: 145 sfu
Solar wind speed elevated
speed: 518.8 km/sec
density: 1.5 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15may15/hmi200.gif
8 earthfacing sunspots with AR2339 the crackly one starting to move to the horizon.. it's still a threat for a few more days..
Aurora - pulse like patterns and bands were appearing
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Christy-Turner-untitled-32_1431562373_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Emmett-Kyle-aurora1-5-12-2015_small_1431650983_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Colin-Tyler-Bogucki-_CTB5217-email_1431570898.jpg
Terry Virts astronaut on the ISS was able to capture some video of the Aurora over western Australia..
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CE5iIjFUMAAeDUt.jpg:large
Flying through an Aurora @27 April 2015
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFleoma-A1o?t=12
The coronal hole is still earthfacing:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Radio Sun microwave bombardment of earth from the sun is still high, but not elevated
10.7 cm flux: 131 sfu
It will continue to drop as the sunspot count decreases
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18may15/hmi200.gif
G5 Storm in progress and continuing
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Coronal hole earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Radio Sun microwave bombardment - strong
10.7 cm flux: 131 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18may15/hmi200.gif
6 earthfacing sunspots
Auroras
Purples pinks and greens
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Catalin-Tapardel-Aurora-Borealis-5--Lamont-AB-Canada._1431886466_lg.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.8 nT
Bz: 1.3 nT south
Instability in the geomagnetic field meaning Auroras could be seen further away from the poles.
South orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field means solar particles can enter and upset the stability.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There is a coronal hole still earthfacing
Radio Sun - microwave levels dropping as the offending sunspots have rotated out of view
10.7 cm flux: 115 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19may15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind
speed: 543.3 km/sec
density: 2.4 protons/cm3
Aurora
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Graeme-Whipps-IMG_0721-3-new_1432035966_lg.jpg
(From Scotland above, Aberdeenshire)
String of Pearls - in Alberta Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Harlan-Thomas-bakerlakeaurora_SW_1432079729.jpg
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
Flare activity is NIL - sun is quiet. No sunspots with M or X class flare ability earthfacing.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21may15/hmi1898.gif
Solar wind moderate - proton count LOW
speed: 406.4 km/sec
density: 1.3 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21may15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Coronal holes are starting to rotate into view
Radio Sun microwave bombardment of earth - LOW
10.7 cm flux: 106 sfu
Radio Sun microwave - very LOW
10.7 cm flux: 99 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23may15/hmi200.gif
low solar activity (solar microwave shows how active the sunspots are, and in this case, although there are 6 earthfacing, nothing is emitting extremes..)
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Coronal holes with geometry are starting to form and go earthfacing
Solar wind slightly slower than normal, with slightly higher proton count than normal
speed: 325.8 km/sec
density: 5.5 protons/cm3
Alberta Canada - string of pearls phenomenon continues
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Harlan-Thomas-bakerlakeiaurora12-3_1432136935_lg.jpg
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/24may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Numerous coronal holes have formed, with geometry, earth facing.. Such could mean upcoming geomagnetic storm are possible in the upcoming 3-4 days.
The sunspot count is decreasing, and the solar microwave field is dropping lower still.
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 98 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/24may15/hmi200.gif
CALM SUN - No auroral activity has been posted recently.
Solar activity very LOW
ONE sunspot earth facing AR2356
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29may15/hmi200.gif
Solar particle stream:
speed: 404.1 km/sec
density: 6.8 protons/cm3 (proton count elevated)
The proton count is UP from previous days' coronal holes.
Currently, the coronal holes have for the most part closed, although there is strong geometry in smaller 'tracks' earthfacing (see below)
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29may15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The banding IS quite interesting.
Radio Sun Microwave field hitting earth
10.7 cm flux: 93 sfu (LOW, or typical for one sunspot)
No appreciable auroral images have been available for about a week, although there is aurora present.
X-Ray flux and particle stream readouts:
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
There were some brief blips in x-ray output from the sun over the last couple days but nothing at all dramatic.
However another coronal hole, with geometry has formed again in a similar past location
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04jun15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
It is also triangular shaped.
Radio Sun microwave field bombarding earth is up slightly, but way below the previous norms
10.7 cm flux: 109 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04jun15/hmi200.gif
4 weak sunspots are earth facing.
Auroras are non-existent currently.
Solar wind - LOW
speed: 261.8 km/sec
density: 1.2 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
x-Ray baseline level continues to slowly rise most likely due to the increasing amount of small sunspots currently earth facing.
The Coronal Hole that is earthfacing with a very pronounced triangular geometry continues to grow and is gaining a more direct line of sight positioning to earth.
The geomagnetic interplanetary field is now currently southerly allowing for an influx of particles. Although currently the geomagnetic field is stable, and activity is considered LOW.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05jun15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/05jun15/hmi200.gif
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
Auroral activity is NIL
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
ATM there is an increase in geomagnetic instability - which could result in increased earthquakes and volcanic activity.
SpaceWeather is identifying this effect as follows:
O-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION: NOAA forecasters estimate a 50% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on June 14-15 when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. CIRs are transition zones between fast- and slow-moving solar wind streams. Solar wind plasma piles up in these regions, producing density gradients and shock waves that do a good job of sparking auroras.
Solar wind currently is showing up as this:
speed: 612.2 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
Radio Sun microwave emission is elevated for this part of the solar cycle, but not extremely high
10.7 cm flux: 136 sfu (microwave level hitting earth)
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 10.9 nT
Bz: 6.2 nT north (allowing for shielding)
The current coronal hole which has been present this last week is starting to close and rotate out of earthfacing view
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/14jun15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Auroral activity is spotty, mostly due to the charged particle turbulence from the CIR's (see above).
Keller, Washington State, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rocky-Raybell-Aurora-June-14th-2015-751-resized_1434284633_lg.jpg
6 Coronal holes, one large one earth facing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20jun15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
At the moment,
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south - allowing for particles to enter the geomagnetic-fields of earth
The M-class flare of the 18th should have somewhat of a particle storm hitting earth shortly. Posts 198 and 197 show the results when such lit off. The CME was not directly earthfacing when it lit off.
One can see the size of the AR 2371 sunspot group and the potential exists for more M class flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/20jun15/hmi1898.gif
Auroras currently are LOW.
Protons are UP from the sun, hitting earth currently
Solar wind
speed: 346.6 km/sec
density: 25.0 protons/cm3
Speed is slightly slower so the kinetic energy impact is slightly less than if it were coming from a high speed "solar wind"
There was a VERY SMALL CME hit on the Earth's magnetic field today, June 21st at approximately 1600 UT.
That weak impact did not cause an obvious geomagnetic storm though, but there are at least two more CMEs en route and may create effects, and instability in the geomagnetic fields of earth.
Sunspot AR2371 has erupted (again) on June 21st at 01:42 UT with a M2 class flare.
You can see graphically here when this happened, and the effects noted:
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/swx-overview-large.gif?time=1424659982000
Looking at the X-Ray graphic, one can SEE the periodicity of the outburst/flares from the sunspot. This regular outburst is INTERESTING to observe and note.. Predicting FLARE output..
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
Here is a closeup of the AR 2371 sunspot
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21jun15/hmi1898.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 135 sfu - microwave fields are still relatively LOW hitting the earth from the sunspots (only two officially present, earthfacing)
Numerous geometrical coronal holes are earth facing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21jun15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
One would assume that the unsettled geomagnetic field would be assisting Aurora presentation, the high energy particle influx, however auroral images are currently nil or low. Watching for auroras in Antarctica would be a good probability in the next few nights..
As was pointed out the rhythm of AR2371 was becoming obvious with cyclic peaks of increasing outbursts (flares).
A severe G4-class geomagnetic storm is in progress on June 22nd. This follows a series of rapid-fire CME strikes to Earth's magnetic field during the past 24 hours. Magnetic fields in the wake of the latest CME are strongly coupled to Earth's own magnetic field. This is a condition that could sustain the geomagnetic storm for many hours to come. High- and mid-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras tonight, especially during the hours around local midnight.
Solar wind
speed: 633.3 km/sec - high - normally one will see a slower wind speed with a high proton count. This time it is different, high kinetic energy is hitting.
density: 13.6 protons/cm3 - high count but not as high as it could be
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22jun15/hmi200.gif
AR 2371 is pointed at the earth.
Here is the blast that hit earth and did cause a bit of a radio blackout.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22jun15/m6_strip.jpg
Auroral activity is very HIGH as shown in this current graphic:
http://chanlo.com/images/aurora-forecast-northern-hemisphere-22june.png
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Alan-Dyer-Solstice-Aurora-1-June-21-2015_1434992083_lg.jpg
Alberta Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Philip-Granrud-IMG_5878_1434987799_lg.jpg
Montana, USA
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 35.6 nT
Bz: 17.3 nT north - north orientation is a good thing, a strong geomagnetic interplanetary field, much higher than normal.. North is shielding.. I can only imagine if this was a southerly polarity how much energy would be coming in.. AS-IS it is pretty strong looking at the auroral oval.
One notch below maximum KP index - instabilty number 9 is the max, and it peaked at an 8, something we haven't seen such instability in a long time.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif
The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0-9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval.
The planetary 3-hour-range index Kp is the mean standardized K-index from 13 geomagnetic observatories between 44 degrees and 60 degrees northern or southern geomagnetic latitude. The label 'K' comes from the German word 'Kennziffer' meaning 'characteristic digit.' The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938. SWPC has used the K-index since the forecast center began operations.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 7 strong
24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 24.6 nT
Bz: 21.2 nT south - being south orientation means the solar particles CAN easily enter the earth's geomagnetic field.
The magnetic field strength is showing HIGH values.
Auroral glows as far south as Cape Cod, MA, USA are showing up
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chris-Cook-aurora-062215_1435028938_lg.jpg
The geomagnetic storm continues
Solar wind
speed: 555.7 km/sec
density: 0.7 protons/cm3 - proton count is down, and solar wind speed is up slightly over normals..
A series of CMEs hit Earth's magnetic field on June 22nd, producing a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm.
Auroras from the Canadian border appeared in the skies in more than a dozen US states, including places as far south as Colorado, Georgia, Virginia and Arkansas.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23jun15/hmi200.gif
AR 2371 still remains a concern for larger flares, currently lighting off C sized (small) events.. Prior flares reached M 6.7, not quite to the level of x-class.
The next wave of CME particle storm is expected to hit between the nite of the 23rd and the 24th of June. Strong geomagnetic storms could disrupt power grids, and communications.
A level 8 is predicted in the next 36 hours, where level 9 is the maximum.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 8 severe
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 12.3 nT
Bz: 8.6 nT north - oscillating field, currently shielding effects in place.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23jun15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Currently large coronal holes are earthfacing streaming particles.
Michigan, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rob-Brumm-ROB_1877editWEBsmall_1435071800_lg.jpg
Steamboat Springs, Colorado, USA
http://media2.wcpo.com/photo/2015/06/23/colorado_1435078098156_20240809_ver1.0_900_675.jpg
Scott Kelly from aboard the International Space Station " I've never seen this before- red #aurora. Spectacular! "
(that's quite a bright red from way up there..)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIIdxc6W8AA2gmT.jpg:large
Talk about stunning..
Over New Zealand -
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Minoru-Yoneto-4002_1435146390_lg.jpg
Solar wind:
speed: 659.3 km/sec
density: 0.4 protons/cm3
AR2371 is starting to rotate off earth facing, and the corresponding microwave field hitting earth from the sunspots IS diminishing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/24jun15/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun Microwave - moving to LOW levels
10.7 cm flux: 116 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled (in expectation of the CME's particle storm hitting in the next 24 hours)
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 10.4 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT north (shielding evident)
The CME's charged particles are expected to hit earth in the next 24-36 hours and could result in extreme activity as has happened in the last couple days, resulting in power outages, disruption of communications and extreme aurora activity..
There are STILL earth facing Coronal holes streaming particles towards earth..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/24jun15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
In another geomagnetic storm
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: 1.5 nT south - south pointing allowing particle influx from the sun to affect the earth's geomagnetic field (instability)
On the 24th the CME impact occurred, however a bit less than originally expected, however there may be more density location in the particle concentration as the earth moves into different areas.. so stronger (or weaker) effects of geomagnetic instability may be in the offing.
The large coronal holes are still earthfacing.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/25jun15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Radio Sun microwave field level continues to drop as the last present solar sunspot starts to rotate out of view.
10.7 cm flux: 110 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/25jun15/hmi200.gif
Could AR 2371 still erupt even with an X-Class flare, yes.
Solar wind
speed: 590.8 km/sec
density: 1.7 protons/cm3 - a higher speed with a lower proton density, about normal pattern for moving into a particle stream.
Aurora - rare sighting in Denver Colorado in the mountains looking northerly for summer.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/David-Shouldice-IMG_1744ps_1435187883_lg.jpg
New coronal hole earthfacing, streaming particles.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/30jun15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index is pretty calm, but not totally flatlined.
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
The solar microwave field is going way down, even with 3 new sunspots, of a very weak character eartfacing
Radio Sun microwave
10.7 cm flux: 97 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/30jun15/hmi200.gif
calm and more calm
Solar wind
speed: 365.0 km/sec
density: 6.1 protons/cm3 slow and a little bit more than normal
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
Solar wind proton count is UP - there was forecast that a co-rotating interaction region would be entered shortly, pbly by the 5th July. That such a region would probably produce strong geomagnetic instability, and auroras due to the increased absorbed particles into the earth's geomagnetic field.
Solar wind
speed: 385.5 km/sec
density: 21.6 protons/cm3
The current x-Ray flux is NIL with no appreciable flare activity.
However, Sunspot AR2378 has the potential to bump a bit, up into the M class flare levels.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04jul15/hmi200.gif
6 small sunspots point towards the earth curently, and a large coronal hole has been for the recent days also been earth facing.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Coronal holes send particle streams towards the earth. When the geomagnetic field points SOUTH the particles can easily enter the geomagnetic field of the earth.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 11.1 nT
Bz: 1.6 nT south
Radio Sun microwave bombardment to earth is low, but not as low as it could be. This number increases when active sunspots are earth facing.
10.7 cm flux: 114 sfu
Auroral activity is NIL, with a chance in the next two days that there will be some activity due to the potential for solar flare activity.
Earth's entered the co-rotating interaction region, and the result is instability, and a geomagnetic storm. This possibility was pointed out in the post above.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif
This potentially will evoke Auroral activity.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 13.7 nT
Bz: 12.8 nT south - with this field orientation SOUTH, the particle influx to the geomagnetic field of the earth is quite strong.
Solar wind
speed: 495.9 km/sec
density: 9.5 protons/cm3 - proton count is currently dropping
K Index has been dropping after the storm the other day that peaked at a 6. Currently the index is sitting at a 1, smooth until the next CME's particles reach earth..
There is a LARGE geometrical Coronal Hole, earthfacing..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07jul15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 117 sfu - is still somewhat low in microwave bombardment of the earth, despite the 7 sunspots that are earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07jul15/hmi1898.gif
AR2381 has been growing rapidly and is being watched, with a prediction that M class flares will emit from that region.
Auroral activity could be possible July 11-12 when the particle stream from the Coronal hole interacts with the earth's geomagnetic field.
Apparently now in the co-rotating interaction region - solar particle count is now up.
Solar wind
speed: 350.5 km/sec
density: 16.6 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10jul15/hmi200.gif
no current M class flares earthfacing
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 122 sfu - microwave levels slightly up for this time of the solar sunspot cycle
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.6 nT
Bz: 1.9 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A geometrical solar coronal hole is still earthfacing, streaming particles towards the earth's geomagnetic field.
Auroras are currently NIL but could increase if the co-rotating region interaction builds..
After passing into the co-rotating region, Auroral activity did flare, and the prediction for a continual G3 storm is possible.
Marquette Michigan Auroral activity
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Paul-Nelson-Aurora-4539E_1436624435.jpg
Cape Cod
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Chris-Cook-aurora-workshop_1436626267_lg.jpg
Earthfacing coronal holes have closed.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.5 nT
Bz: 0.5 nT south - allowing for particle stream coupling to the earth's geomagnetic field
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 129 sfu - microwave levels slightly increasing
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif
solar windspeed is increasing
Solar wind speed remains elevated as it has been for the last couple of days when earth bumped into the co-rotating region (which sparked lower latitude auroras)..
speed: 603.8 km/sec
density: 1.6 protons/cm3
A group of sunspots are about to scroll off the edge from being earthfacing, leaving 1 sunspot in view.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12jul15/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun microwave still is somewhat elevated for this time of the solar cycle (meaning there is a group of active sunspots still containing microwave emission potential)
10.7 cm flux: 129 sfu (low 90's would be more normal for minimal sunspot count)
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.0 nT
Bz: 2.7 nT south allowing for particle entry into the earth's geomagnetic field
Auroras were seen again in Canada - (Upsala, Ontario)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Paul-Beebe-IMGP9565--1a_1436708096_lg.jpg
Coronal holes with geometry are starting to form
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12jul15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Beautiful Aurora and sky view from South Dakota, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Randy-Halverson-DSC_1481_1436638292_lg.jpg
Calm output from the Sun
Beautiful Auroras on the 13th, as far south as Nebraska in the US - McMurdo Station in Antarctica had a sky show too..
Coronal hole activity is calm, with some threads in the 'works' it looks like but nothing obvious at this point.
Sunspot activity is minimal, and flare activity from the existing (3) earthfacing sunspots is nil.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Liz-Widen-JMauroras1_1436849382_lg.jpg
Antarctica
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Lukasz-Gornisiewicz-26_1436851187_lg.jpg
Alberta Canada
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Patrick-Cullis-NebraskaStarParty-5_1436809052_lg.jpg
Nebraska
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Coronal hole geometry (nil)
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.1 nT
Bz: 0.7 nT south
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 105 sfu - microwave diminishing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15jul15/hmi200.gif
Sunspots (3)
Solar wind has slowed down, sunspot count low, coronal holes nil, flares very low..
Solar wind
speed: 381.3 km/sec
density: 3.0 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17jul15/hmi1898.gif
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 100 sfu - microwave level low
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/17jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
no Aurora activity to report
Selkie
18th July 2015, 00:49
The coronal holes always spook me out because they look like the sun is sort of flickering, like it is thinking about going out.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
two coronal holes are starting to form but are not considered "large" at this time.
Flare activity is reported as low - there was a brief C level flare
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19jul15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind speed is LOW
speed: 285.8 km/sec
density: 4.3 protons/cm3
Radio Sun microwave values - LOW
10.7 cm flux: 96 sfu - these appear from the sunspot regions - sunspot microwave output activity is low despite 4 earthfacing sunspots
Auroral activity NIL
Planetary K-index - geomagnetic field is stable
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Solar flare activity bottomed out - B class "noise" present from the fusion activity.
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour.gif
and
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22jul15/hmi200.gif
two sunspots
Solar wind speed is LOW, but proton particle count is UP, as a result of having entered a zone from co-rotating fields and the remnants of a filament collapse a few days ago.
speed: 363.5 km/sec
density: 17.8 protons/cm3
High-latitude auroral activity may be possible.
Radio Sun microwave activity is LOW (as expected with minimal sunspot activity)
10.7 cm flux: 91 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
There are coronal holes with geometry earth facing currently streaming particles towards the earth's geomagnetic field:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
A few hours ago, there was a blip in the geomagnetic field with a Kp5 level storm - which is subsiding currently.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.1 nT
Bz: 1.2 nT south orientation - It allowed particles to enter the geomagnetic field and Auroras to appear as far south as Michigan in the US.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23jul15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
A large set of coronal holes with geometry are forming and are earthfacing. This will allow continued particle streams to hit earth.
X-Ray flare levels are NIL, a very stable B level "noise" is present and that's about it.
Two small sunspots on the edge are earthfacing with NIL microwave output
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23jul15/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun microwave levels
10.7 cm flux: 89 sfu - LOW
Auroral activity from the Kp5 storm blip in Paradise Michigan, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sarah-DAngelo-DSC_4377web_1437645623.jpg
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27jul15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Pretty picture of the sun, looking for coronal holes. The two active sunspots can be seen. There are 6 very small earthfacing coronal holes.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27jul15/hmi200.gif
AR2390 is currently earthfacing, and NOAA reports that there is a possibility of a small flare, although x-Ray output is showing up as minimal.
Radio Sun microwave levels from the two sunspots is still very LOW
10.7 cm flux: 97 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
The auroral oval is STRONG currently from the previous particle streams and solar events earlier in the week. Northern latitude skywatchers may catch a strong aurora this early morning.
Bob
7th August 2015, 19:56
A minor (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm is underway on August 7th as a high-speed solar wind stream buffets Earth's magnetic field. This was due to entering co-rotating fields of particles.
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras, especially during the hours around local midnight.
Solar wind
speed: 531.2 km/sec
density: 3.5 protons/cm3
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Francois-Rouviere-2015-08-06_T_08-00-31LR50cw_1438866190_lg.jpg
Sunspot activity has been dwindling for the most part for the last month - however there is a new sunspot, AR 2396 which has just started erupting a bit, and is starting to go earthfacing.
General sunspot map currently:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07aug15/hmi200.gif
Despite the current sunspot density, the microwave bombardment of Earth remains relatively LOW:
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 112 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Auroral activity over the last week was LOW - (From YellowKnife, Canada)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Aurora-Hunter-image_1438527304_lg.jpg
Bob
12th August 2015, 19:24
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12aug15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
A large coronal hole is earthfacing and the particle stream is scheduled for the 16th to reach earth's geomagnetic fields.
AR 2396 which is pretty large is moving out of earth view and will shortly no longer be a concern for CME's
Solar wind is moderate:
speed: 397.4 km/sec
density: 3.0 protons/cm3
Radio Sun Microwave
10.7 cm flux: 103 sfu - relatively LOW
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
No strong auroral activity is being reported
Bob
15th August 2015, 15:41
Coronal holes are still earthfacing and, there is an earlier than expected geo-magnetic-storm rocking and rolling the earth's magnetic fields..
Daylight Aurora in Alaska:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sanjana-Greenhill-DSC_3712FBL_1439642088.jpg
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/planetary-k-index.gif?time=1439652625000
peaking at a storm level of 7
Solar wind
speed: 452.1 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 11.5 nT
Bz: 1.2 nT south orientation allowing the storm's particles to enter.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15aug15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The CME
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/14aug15/cme_anim.gif
that caused the display was propelled toward Earth by a magnetic filament, which erupted on the sun August 12th.
A fast-moving solar wind stream is expected to arrive in the wake of the CME.
The combined impact of the CME and arrival of the solar wind could energize geomagnetic activity for the rest of the weekend.
Bob
17th August 2015, 02:24
Kp=4 And the Geomagnetic Storm persists.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Larry-Anderson-north-lights_1439773440_lg.jpg
Still southpointing, and still allowing auroras to appear - the one above is from Western Montana. The one below is from Michigan.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Wayne-Bergman-image_1439752888_lg.jpg
Radio Sun microwave is LOW
10.7 cm flux: 93 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/15aug15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
solar coronal holes continue to face earth
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 6.5 nT
Bz: 0.9 nT south
Bob
19th August 2015, 01:18
Extremely rare "PROTON ARCs" were seen in the last day.
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Dylan-M-Aurora-3_1439878580_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sherri-Grant-image_1439829413_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Dylan-M-Aurora-1_1439878580_lg.jpg
To head off the speculation about some "conspiracy", (there was none here)... The Proton Arc phenomenon happens at times, but not often.
Protons from solar events normally trapped in our planet's ring current sometimes rain down on Earth's atmosphere during geomagnetic storms.
As they are traveling inwards, they excite a type of plasma wave called "EMIC" or electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves.
The result is not an aurora curtain as is often seen, but rather a tight arc of light as shown above. Fascinating !
The Proton arcs were observed Aug. 17th.
Radio Sun microwave levels are very low, with only ONE earthfacing sunspot.
10.7 cm flux: 87 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18aug15/hmi200.gif
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18aug15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
There are earthfacing LARGE coronal holes streaming particle towards earth's geomagnetic field.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Bob
23rd August 2015, 15:39
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Sanjana-Greenhill-DSC_3795FBL_1440330006_lg.jpg
Earth's northern skies having entered a strong solar particle stream lit up with pretty amazing aurora.
There is one gargantuan sunspot forming 2403, and growing and is earthfacing - scientists are saying it possibly can light off a few of the larger flares.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23aug15/hmi200.gif
Geometrical Coronal holes are earthfacing still and sending particle streams towards the earths geomagnetic field.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/23aug15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 110 sfu - this is a bit high for two sunspots, so the new large one forming is outputting a large amount of energy.
Bob
26th August 2015, 17:26
Coronal hole being monitored..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/26aug15/ch_strip.jpg
and
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/26aug15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
These types of geometrical holes which span almost the distance across the sun give concern to scientists monitoring particle stream output from the sun.
I had posted a warning a while back about these types of holes.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Auroral activity currently is HIGH
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 9.2 nT
Bz: 8.9 nT south allowing for particle stream entry into the earth's geomagnetic field.
The 28th/29th is the time of arrival for the particle stream to reach earth, although all indications are showing earth is currently dealing with particle stream entry (the auroras are a good indication of this visually)
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Colin-Tyler-Bogucki-_CTB3534-email_1440443716_lg.jpg
Bob
27th August 2015, 04:45
Low level K5 geomagnetic storm is happening - auroras should be active
Solar wind
speed: 385.8 km/sec
density: 8.0 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/26aug15/hmi200.gif
AR2403 is starting to move off earth pointing axis
Sweden:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/GApran-Strand-_FGS6046_1440636597_lg.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Radio Sun microwave (high for two spots)
10.7 cm flux: 121 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/26aug15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The solar coronal hole is increasing in size and is squarely earthfacing.
Bob
31st August 2015, 14:42
Current geometrical coronal hole - earthfacing
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/31aug15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Particles streaming from such tentatively scheduled to reach the geomagnetic field of earth about 3 Sept.
Solar Microwave is now LOW with the last large sunspot (AR 2403) moving off the edge of the solar disk.
Radio Sun Microwave field level
10.7 cm flux: 92 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/31aug15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind (normal)
speed: 400.8 km/sec
density: 4.1 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 2.1 nT north
Sept. 2nd may show auroral activity and geomagnetic instability when Earth crosses through a fold in the "heliospheric current sheet" which is present.
Example (WIKI (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heliospheric_current_sheet)) -
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b6/Heliospheric-current-sheet.gif/800px-Heliospheric-current-sheet.gif
The shape of the current sheet results from the influence of the Sun's rotating magnetic field on the plasma in the interplanetary medium (Solar Wind).
A small electrical current flows within the sheet, about 10−10 A/m².
The thickness of the current sheet is about 10,000 km near the orbit of the Earth.
The underlying magnetic field is called the interplanetary magnetic field, and the resulting electric current forms part of the heliospheric current circuit.
Note that we post interplanetary magnetic field levels (Interplanetary Mag. Field, Btotal: 4.4 nT, Bz: 2.1 nT north where B designates "magnetic", nT designates "nanoTesla field strength", z designates field directional orientation).
Graphics for strength displayed over a period of time, can be seen here:
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif
(Keep an eye on the top two graphics over the next few days)
Aurora over Fairbanks, Alaska
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_0935_1440836977_lg.jpg
Bob
4th September 2015, 14:56
Impressive Aurora from having entered the heliospheric current sheet:
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Joseph-Bradley-_MG_3157_1441362625_lg.jpg
(Whithorse, Yukon, Canada)
There are solar coronal holes with geometry appearing, with particle streams (target 6th 7th Sept) earthside..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04sep15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Current geomagnetic "storm" present
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 11.6 nT
Bz: 5.4 nT south - allowing for particle stream entry into the geomagnetic field of earth
Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 87 sfu - microwave bombardment of earth from the sunspots, NIL (low levels)
Two minor sunspots earthfacing with nil activity
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/04sep15/hmi200.gif
Solar wind
speed: 453.0 km/sec
density: 5.2 protons/cm3 - speed about normal, with slightly higher proton density indicated
Bob
10th September 2015, 11:26
Auroral activity has been strong, although not from sunspot activity - Solar x-ray output is NIL.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is allowing for particle streams from the Coronal Holes (Two large ones currently) to create an energetic light show, (and geomagnetic instability)..More instability on the way..
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10sep15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Radio Sun Microwave bombardment - LOW
10.7 cm flux: 82 sfu
Solar wind
speed: 429.5 km/sec
density: 11.4 protons/cm3 - higher density than normal
Auroral activity Marquette Michigan, USA
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Paul-Nelson-Presque-Isle-Aurora-9725E_1441856436_lg.jpg
Bob
13th September 2015, 15:37
Solar-Earth activity remains NIL - Auroral activity has been strong, although not from sunspot activity - Solar x-ray output is NIL.
Despite the emergence of a new and unstable sunspot designated AR2414, the Sun remains extremely quiet.
There has not been a strong Solar flare in weeks.
The Sun's X-ray output is very low.
Solar wind - SPEED and PARTICLE count NORMAL.
speed: 457.4 km/sec
density: 6.5 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13sep15/hmi200.gif
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/goes-xray-flux.gif
Looking at the X-Ray flux graphics, output is extremely quiet, and ner any energy that will disrupt fault zones has been sent this way in weeks and weeks.
Radio Sun Microwave bombardment is LOW, much lower than would be expected from this sunspot count.
10.7 cm flux: 99 sfu
Auroral activity remains GOOD due to particle streams from the Solar Coronal HOLES earthfacing interacting with the geomagnetic field of earth.
New Zealand
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Minoru-Yoneto-4133_1442072432_lg.jpg
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.6 nT
Bz: 2.8 nT south allowing particle influx from the solar particle stream from the Coronal Holes
The very large coronal hole group (with geometry) that is earthfacing is allowing particles to excite the auroral oval for the north and southern hemisphere
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13sep15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Bob
21st September 2015, 15:14
New earthfacing Coronal holes have opened up, and the last larger sunspot, AR2415 has been hurling CME's earthward for a few days, resulting in good Auroras (but not damaging to satellites or power grids).
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Todd-Salat-Midnight-Bloom-by-Todd-Salat_1442740733_lg.jpg
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21sep15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Solar Microwave is moderate - 10.7 cm flux: 110 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
but the orientation currently is northerly, providing particle influx shielding..
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.9 nT
Bz: 1.0 nT north
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/21sep15/hmi1898.gif
Bob
22nd September 2015, 15:10
Solar coronal holes continue to expand, and are earthfacing.
Reported, during equinox periods, auroral activity appears to become more spectacular..
How about this in Norilsk, Russia ?
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Pavel-Kantsurov-2015-09-20-UTC1605_1442847576.jpg
Current Coronal Hole image:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/22sep15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
Radio Sun microwave bombardment
10.7 cm flux: 103 sfu, moderate to low
Solar wind
speed: 595.3 km/sec
density: 1.9 protons/cm3
Bob
1st October 2015, 14:57
Earthfacing Coronal hole is starting to rotate into view.
Currently solar wind particle content is increasing.
Auroral activity is therefore increasing.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01oct15/hmi200.gif
The large sunspot AR2422 is rotating off the field of view - this sunspot has been evoking M class flares over the last week.
On Oct. 2nd a co-rotating interaction region is expected to hit Earth's magnetic field and create instability in the fields, and possible auroral activity.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/01oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Bob
8th October 2015, 00:54
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong
Proton solar wind speed is elevated.
A coronal hole (large) with geometry is facing earthward.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/07oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The instability of the co-rotating interaction region (which was entered today, and should remain thru tomorrow) will continue, most likely leading to strong aurora activity. (folks have reported brilliant daytime aurora in numerous places)..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Bernt-Olsen-_BEO6970_1444259221_lg.jpg
Sunspots - 2 minor ones
Solar microwave emission - NIL
10.7 cm flux: 83 sfu
Flare activity NIL to flatlined.
Bob
8th October 2015, 15:19
Solar storm continues - high speed solar particle wind speed: 721.9 km/sec, density: 2.0 protons/cm3
2 small sunspots with NIL activity present.
Solar microwave hitting earth NIL - 10.7 cm flux: 81 sfu
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 5 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 7 strong
Auroral patterns STRONG
Earth facing coronal holes with geometry - large
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/08oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Mika-Wist-_DSC4915_1444306288_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Mika-Wist-_DSC4939_1444306288_lg.jpg
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/B.Art-Braafhart-DSC06487bfn_1444308515_lg.jpg
Bob
10th October 2015, 15:21
The solar wind speed is up at 605.6 km/sec with a proton density of about 1.8 protons/cm3.
This Coronal Hole is the one which is feeding the particle stream strongly into earth's magnetic field.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.9 nT
Bz: 2.7 nT south
Two very small sunspots with NIL flare activity:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/09oct15/hmi200.gif
Third day in a row with strong (spectacularly strong) Auroras as far south as Wyoming (Latitude and longitude of Wyoming is 41°N to 45°N and 104° 3'W to 111° 3'W).
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/kai-ojala-2015-10-07-007_1444460144_lg.jpg
http://cc.amazingcounters.com/counter.php?i=3190880&c=9572953
Bob
12th October 2015, 18:17
This coronal hole is getting quite large and holds potential for strong geomagnetic im-balance in the next 3 days.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/12oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Radio Sun earth bombardment microwave levels are LOW
10.7 cm flux: 85 sfu
Solar wind proton count is starting to climb..
speed: 493.0 km/sec - speed is up very slightly
density: 6.4 protons/cm3
X-Ray flare output is NIL from the minor sunspots present.
Auroras were fantastic from the geomagnetic upset of the co-rotating fields entered last week..
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Marketa-S-Murray-MSM_0075-Edit_1444658458.jpg
Bob
14th October 2015, 11:29
It grows..
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/13oct15/ch.jpg
The coronal hole earth facing is humongous..
And it is streaming particles towards earth.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Solar x-ray is MINIMUM..
Radio Sun microwave is slightly increasing due to a new sunspot with higher output potential.
10.7 cm flux: 96 sfu
Auroral activity is dipping south - this is from Minnesota
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/christian-ham-october-07-2015-aurora-01b_1444804467_lg.jpg
Bob
18th October 2015, 15:35
The coronal hole finally passed us, (and it's remains moved off the solar horizon)..
Currently:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18oct15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
there is a relatively small coronal hole (with geometry, an interesting star-shaped geometry).. earth facing.
Currently there is strong geomagnetic instability from previously entered solar wind protons, resulting in strong aurora.
One sunspot is strongly active (AR1434), and another one (AR2436) on the horizon is starting to come into view:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/18oct15/hmi1898.gif
This has increased solar microwave bombardment of earth:
10.7 cm flux: 117 sfu - this is still considered relatively LOW compared to highly active previous sunspot days.
Aurora - ICELAND
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Kelly-Swanson-image_1445180060_lg.jpg
Bob
19th October 2015, 13:52
Textbook Aurora image - from the solar particle stream, the small G1 geomagnetic storm facilitated some nice "lights"
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Jonathan-Tucker-yukon-drift-wood_1445224126_lg.jpg
From WhiteHorse, Yukon
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
The coronal hole with geometry remains earthfacing, with anticipated particle storm by the 22/23rd
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/19oct15/hmi200.gif
Two strong sunspots are in view for microwave bombardment, and potentially strong M class flares.
Radio Sun microwave bombardment signal strength
10.7 cm flux: 120 sfu
Bob
27th October 2015, 15:44
This is odd - the report this morning said solar particle count was really high, the normals are in the <10 range.. there could be increases in geomagmatic activity.
http://cc.amazingcounters.com/counter.php?i=3190880&c=9572953
Solar wind
speed: 348.0 km/sec
density: 77.1 protons/cm3
The explanation was the earth has entered a fold in the heliospheric current sheet, called a "solar sector boundary crossing."
Current sunspot map
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27oct15/hmi200.gif
Radio Sun microwave levels dropping
10.7 cm flux: 106 sfu
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/27oct15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Large coronal holes are starting once again to form, this time mostly in the polar regions. An equatorial coronal hole is starting to rotate into view.
The auroral oval is still strong for this time of day, mostly in the areas where there is still early morning.
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.9 nT
Bz: 1.5 nT south
Interplanet magnetic field is currently stable.
Bob
29th October 2015, 16:16
The strong rectangular geometry in the most recent massive equatorial coronal hole:
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/29oct15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
is expected to stream particles towards earth in the next few days, resulting projection by NOAA auroral activity, and geomagnetic instability..
Solar Microwave bombardment of earth
Radio Sun emission levels
10.7 cm flux: 112 sfu
Bob
2nd November 2015, 15:28
Today tomorrow NOAA is expecting the particle stream from the massive geometrical coronal hole to hit earth. Predictions are for instability in the geomagnetic field from high to mid latitudes.
Solar wind
speed: 328.6 km/sec
density: 5.7 protons/cm3
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02nov15/hmi200.gif
AR2443 sunspot consists of multiple "string of pearls" style sunspot group, and is massive. They are saying it holds the potential for larger flares. Solar Microwave bombardment of earth is showing increased levels of activity.
Radio Sun Microwave levels
10.7 cm flux: 124 sfu
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.8 nT
Bz: 4.9 nT south - currently allowing particles into the geomagnetic field with this orientation
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02nov15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
YellowKnife, Canada aurora prior to particle stream
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Rene-Hoppenbrouwers-DSC_0268_1446437226.jpg
Bob
3rd November 2015, 02:19
Solar wind
speed: 348.2 km/sec
density: 45.7 protons/cm3
The start of the particle influx and geomagnetic storms appears to be here.
Solar wind speed is still in the normal ranges, however the particle count is up by a factor of 9.
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 7.4 nT
Bz: 0.4 nT north which is affording shielding to the earth's geomagnetic fields.
Bob
3rd November 2015, 06:19
Solar wind speed is climbing with a strong proton particle density - about 17 times over normal levels
speed: 406.3 km/sec
density: 83.8 protons/cm3
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 22.1 nT
Bz: 0.4 nT north
The interplanetary magnetic field level is high, but the orientation is still northerly, allowing for some shielding, and helping to keep the Kp index level a bit more stable.
The large equatorial earth facing coronal hole still contains strong geometry
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02nov15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
Strong aurora in Sweden
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/Anders-Olofsson-DSC_7294_1446527295_lg.jpg
Bob
3rd November 2015, 17:34
Solar wind
speed: 624.6 km/sec
density: 4.5 protons/cm3
Status - STORM
Solar wind speed bumped as high as 750 km/sec
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 5 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 11.5 nT
Bz: 3.5 nT south
Bob
6th November 2015, 05:26
a VAST solar geometrical coronal hole present and earth aimed.
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06nov15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
and
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/06nov15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
particle stream impact probably by the 10th Nov.
Bob
10th November 2015, 23:04
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 4 unsettled
24-hr max: Kp= 6 storm
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 5.3 nT
Bz: 0.9 nT south - 'open', allowing for particle influx into Earth's geomagnetic field
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/10nov15/coronalhole_sdo_200.gif
large coronal hole with geometry earthfacing and streaming particles
Solar wind
speed: 693.6 km/sec
density: 1.8 protons/cm3
Radio Sun microwave bombardment LOW (minimal sunspot emission)
10.7 cm flux: 108 sfu
There have been a few low level CME's which are charging up the region, coupled with the charged particles from the coronal hole, storm activity will be present. Auroral activity will be present.
Abisko, Sweden Auroral activity
http://0e33611cb8e6da737d5c-e13b5a910e105e07f9070866adaae10b.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/julian-simmonds-SilverfalletAuroras---Julian-Simmonds_1447161382_lg.jpg
Bob
3rd December 2015, 07:12
Very large coronal hole earthfacing with geometry is back -
http://spaceweather.com/images2015/02dec15/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg
geomagnetic and auroral activity could kick in by the 7th December
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