Gold Price forecasts : Is the Low for 2014 Now in Place?

[GuyFox]

Gold Price forecasts : Is the Low for 2014 Now in Place?

Gold is now $1,252 per Ounce

Worth looking at, some unusual arguments here...

Short Term comment from Friday:
"THE LOW IS NOW IN PLACE":

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Longer term, this prediction from last month, relates to US Government Debt:

MAJOR LOW BEFORE JULY (end of July 2014):
kj0ufr7HyXo

This forecast comes from the same one who called the Exact Low
at the end of June 2013.

[Ioneo]

Interesting theories. I wonder how anyone can make accurate predictions the way the market is so heavily manipulated though.

[GuyFox]

Have you considered that some sorts of manipulations might make the market MORE predictable.

If you are aware of Fibonacci numbers, the way the market fell to an exact Fibonacci 61.8% level, and then bounced should really wake you up.

Here's the calculation:

Gold Price High : $1,921 (early Sept. 2011)
Fibonacci ratio : x 61.8%
==================
Retracement - : $1,187 : expected Low

Weekly Gold chart - check the highs and lows, which agree with these figures:

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/Gold-3yrs_zpsd28039e8.png (http://s273.photobucket.com/user/jimolsen2/media/Gold-3yrs_zpsd28039e8.png.html)

What is a "Fibonacci Ratio":
The key Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 is derived by dividing any number in the sequence by the number that immediately follows it. For example: 8/13 is approximately 0.6154, and 55/89 is approximately 0.6180.

> wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_retracement

This isn't a calculation made now, that I/we are now hoping will prove is right.
It was a prediction made by Green Energy's DrBubb on the exact day of the low on June 28th, 2014 ... and it has proven to be correct :

============
(YouTube Comment):
Some may want to know that Green Energy's DrBubb called the exact Low at $1186 (a Fibonacci - 38.2% correction from the $1921 Gold High) - and that was done ON THE DAY of the Low. Here's a post from GLP, dated at exactly: 06/28/2013 11:53 AM referring to a post on DrBubb's Diary: ""Gold hit a Fibonacci Point at $1,186, and then Jumped: Happy Days are here again?!" : http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message2276956/pg1
The GEI thread it refers to is at : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17872&&page=11
============

The most recent prediction that "The Gold Low for 2014 is Now in place" may or may not prove to be accurate. The price needs monitored on a day-to-day basis to see what happens (ie, a trader must stay flexible.) Even so, a number of important indications have already occurred which suggest the likelihood of a low may be a bet worth back, at least with some small positions, protected by Stops or Options.

(Having said this, I am not set up to make recommendations to others, so please DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.)

[aheb]

Charles Nenner says that the low will be in July and he has been accurate before. It is very difficult to know what is going on in the financial world to me it looks like madness, but then maybe I am listening to all the wrong people. Looking at charts and trying to predict from them can work, but when it fails,it fails dramatically. The charts can not show a major black swan event or even sometimes discounts an obvious event.

[GuyFox]

Yes.
I have seen Nenner's forecast, and he seems to have lined up with "Normal seasonality":

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/BW-season_zps6c12c01d.png

Meantime, some other indicators, like:

+ The Gold-to-TLT ratio, and
+ The Gold stock bellwethers

Suggest we may see a Low before July.

[vilcabamba]

I subscribe to the Real Wealth Report with Larry Edelstein and he says the low is coming and he is starting to get into gold mining stocks now.

[GuyFox]

Yeah : "Low is coming before end July 2014" was the message of a Video from one month ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kj0ufr7HyXo

Last Friday's Video said: "subtle signals suggest the Low is already in"

Here's one of those signals: Ratio of Gold-to-TLT, made a nice Double bottom

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/BW-goldtoAG2_zpse628f00e.png

Today: Gold ($1254) / TLT ($111.42) = 11.25
Last week's low was just below 11.0 - ie : 11.0 TLT shares = 1 Ounce of Gold

Now that the Low has been hit, people seem to be switching OUT OF BONDS, and INTO GOLD.

Perhaps they spotted a bargain, and did not want to wait for a seasonal July Low

[aheb]

Well a lot of people already believed that the low was well and truly in then last week the price started falling. I watched a video with Jim Rogers and he said that a 50% re tracement was usual after a bull run and he expects it to fall further so from a high of $1900 we should expect maybe $1000 before we get a bull run again. The problem is, in the climate we are in now it is so hard to know what to do. Gold by rights should be a lot higher, there may be manipulation but you have to realise that a lot of the traders nowadays only look at charts and are only interested in their bonuses. People have been calling for a stock market correction for some time, also in the UK the housing market seems to be in a bubble. It maybe that in time we will look back on these days and thank God that we had the courage of our convictions and kept our gold and added to it when the price fell or we may be the proud possessors of a barberous relic while real money is figures on a computer monitor.who knows?

[GuyFox]

They hold those opinions, or held them in the past, but it does not mean they will be correct.

In fact, bottoms often happen "early" when too many people are waiting for them.
And we MAY be seeing that now. But no one is guaranteeing anything here,
merely point out a possibility, and giving arguments why it may happen.

[aheb]

Yeah I wasn't disagreeing with you or argueing, just thinking out loud. I have a little silver and gold, and in hindsight I bought it at the wrong price but I won't sell it. I believe that it is the best/safest investment that you can have. I'm just waiting for the bubble to pop.

[GuyFox]

Sure.
It's not about a debate, or an argument.
The way I see it is:
A good "prediction" is more that just a View of where Gold might go, it also provides a body of evidence backing up the prediction.
The interesting part, is not the market Call, it is the WHY behind it.

The Gold-to-Anti-Gold ratio, and the Bellwether stocks movements are something new (to most.)
They have worked in the past. But may or may not work this time.
(As a matter of fact, the slow upwards progress over the last week or so, since those signals were given, are giving me some concern that more impetus is needed to move Gold higher... And they may not work this time.)

[GuyFox]

Silver's Big Picture - "approaching an important point"

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/Silver_zpsd129200e.png (http://s273.photobucket.com/user/jimolsen2/media/Silver_zpsd129200e.png.html)

2IF2_7AlIAU

[GuyFox]

Got Gold?

Here are some shares and options I picked up several days ago, when the prices were heavily discounted

Shares :
VGZ
Calls :
IAG - Jan.2015-$2.50,
NUGT - Jan.2015 - $25

Will give a recap later, but you may see this prediction is "on the money" so far.

More ideas here: http://goldedge.wordpress.com/

[conk]

Richard Maybury, Early Warning Report (who is right WAY more than he is wrong) says that gold has an 80% chance of going to $10,000 per oz in the coming year or so. He says silver will go to $100.

[GuyFox]

> http://goldedge.wordpress.com/

GOLD : A very Odd day – With Gold shares in powerful move up

GDX – A powerful move UP !

http://i273.photobucket.com/albums/jj235/jimolsen2/GDX_zpsa6eb8ff9.gif
==============
GLD : 122.67 +0.39 : +0.32% 4.54 M
GDX: $24.76 +0.64: +2.65% 36.05M
Nugt : $38.36 +2.69 : +7.54% 5.05 M
Gdxj : $40.23 +1.76 : +4.57% 6.68 M
IAG- : $04.05 +0.16 : +4.11% 6.53 M
VGZ : $0.472 +.015 : +3.28% 493,068
===============

Very odd day !
Gold hardly moved, being up 0.32% – while Gold shares shot up 2.65% on reasonably heavy volume.
History tells us, that when moves like this occur, we should expect Gold shares to be leading Gold.

==

(Looks like the original GOLD PRICE LOW prediction from late May is very much on track!)

[gripreaper]

You can also see Silver is sitting on major support from late 2009-early 2010 before it took off. It has retested this support three times in the last year.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=slv&uf=0&type=2&size=2&sid=2305869&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=12&rand=1186369815&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=335&width=579&mocktick=1

[GuyFox]

KITCO articles

Keep Eye On $1,300/Oz To See If Gold Rally Has Legs - Kitco News, Jun 20 2014 2:25PM
Gold Bulls Take Command, Inflation On The Horizon: Wagner - Kitco Video News, Jun 20 2014 12:25PM
Kitco Readers See New Momentum For Gold And Silver - Kitco News, Jun 20 2014 2:36PM
Survey Participants Heavily Bullish On Gold Prices For Next Week - Kitco News, Jun 20 2014 12:15PM
=== ===

Gold’s inability to sustain losses under $1,280 broke the March-June downtrend. “On this broader scale the market has defined (the) June 2 $1,240 low as the new and long-term risk parameter it needs to break to negate a new bullish count and resurrect the secular downtrend from September 2011's $1,923 all-time high,” Toth said.

Comex gold analysts said judging by the final open interest data from Thursday’s trade, total open interest in gold rose about 6,000 contracts, which suggests a combination of short covering and new buying entered the market. Silver saw open interest rise nearly 1,900 contracts. Open interest is the number of tradable positions left in the market at the end of the session.

Based on technical charts, gold prices appear to have more upside. However, some bullion dealers said they’re going to take a wait-and-see approach next week because the rally still hasn’t budged physical buyers into opening their wallets
. . .
VIDEO : it is critical for gold to hold the $1,300 level, he says and adds that the key resistance is at $1,341
. . .
135 readers responded to the one-day survey of those 70%, or 95 respondents, said that gold and silver’s momentum can be maintained while 29%, or 39 respondents, said that this is just a short-term bounce. One person said they didn’t care about gold’s rally.

==== : Net : %Bulls*= Up: Dn: N = Surveyed: FriGold > NextWk: Chg.
06/06 : - 05 : 31.8% = +07, - 12, N 3 = 22 /33 : $1252.4 > 1276.6 : +1.93%
06/13 : +13 : 66.7% = +16, - 03, N 5 = 24 /33 : $1276.6 > 1314.8 : +2.99%
06/20 : +12 : 69.2% = +18, - 06, N 2 = 26 /37 : $1314.8 > ????

Survey Participants Heavily Bullish On Gold Prices For Next Week
Those participants who call for weaker prices next week said considering the rally came so swiftly, a pullback might be in order. Additionally, they noted little physical demand* on the move higher, which has been a problem plaguing gold for a few months now.

“I can see by the gold forward rates that the buying was coming from the hedge fund/spec (speculative) community and not the physical buyers. The physical buyers have actually turned slight sellers at these levels. The buying on Thursday seemed to me to be panic short covering.
==
* True enough: Gold holdings by SPDR actually FELL slightly during the week

[GuyFox]

(who knows? - could there be something in this?):

Steve Quayle posted this alert

http://www.stevequayle.com/index.php?s=33&d=971

SOMEONE JUST BOUGHT HALF BILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD FUTURES, SILVER UP JUST AS V AND W WARNED WEEKS AGO :PRICES WILL EXPLODE MID-JULY

GOLD AND SILVER ARE UNDER PANIC ACCUMULATION NOW -I WAS UP EARLY THIS MORNING AND THE PHYSICAL VOLUME OF METALS IN THE FIRST TWO HOURS WAS HUGE NOT TO MENTION THE FUTURES MARKET.SILVERS LOW WAS IN AT 18.55 AND GOLDS LOW WAS 1220.00 MONTHS AGO--NOW IS THE TIME TO CALL US AND GET WHAT YOU NEED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE--DELIVERY IS EVERYTHING AND WE DELIVER SWIFTLY ON CLEARED FUNDS.THERE WILL BE A LACK OF AVAILABILITY, THE MINUTE RUSSIA AND UKRAINE GO HOT-DEEP FINANCIAL BACKGROUND SOURCES CLAIM RUSSIAN BLITZKRIEG OF NATO WHICH WILL BE OVER IN DAYS. ALL DELIVERY SERVICES WILL SHUT DOWN IN FINANCIAL PANIC AND THE ONLY PRECIOUS METALS YOU WILL BE ABLE TO GET WILL BE THOSE YOU HAVE ALREADY ACQUIRED! CALL US AT 406-586-4842

Jun 19, 20