Solar weather and earthquake predictions

[Fairy Friend]

I start this thread to forecast flares and earthquakes which can often relate. We have just had an X 3.1 flare go off from one of the largest sunspots seen in years. And we have also just had a solar eclipse. So I'm starting in a new phase.

We have a large filament which I have my eyes on but so far looks stable to me and the experts predict 85% chance of an M Class flare and 45% chance of an X class flare from this absolutely huge sunspot.

At the moment I am waiting for it to settle down which is just starting to and I am feeling hot and flushed, perhaps another impulsive M flare but small like M2 after this settles down a tad.

Feel free to predict as well after all We learn when we try.

[ghostrider]

it is proven , sun spots , flares , and CME's etc , can influence earthquakes ... the undiscovered science is the thinking patterns of earth humans send out waves that also affect earth's weather and overall health , for Earth is a living being ... just like your thoughts and feelings can be sensed by animals and they react , if your in a bad mood , they feel fear and uncertainty , if your in a good mood they are happy as well ... Earth responds to our thoughts and feelings ...

[Fairy Friend]

Well, looks like we were kissing M flare level after the big pop yesterday.
Earthquakes are high in number but staying around 5 magnitude and under so far.

[Fairy Friend]

Lots of energy from the baseline running in the C flares zone. Don't think anything major is happening any time soon, even the big filament seems quite stable... couple of little filaments might cause us issues later on. 85% chance of M flares and 45% chance of X Flares.

Of course, things quickly change with the Sun. And I would not be surprised if people were feeling a little bit of shifting underneath their feet but I don't see anything major there either.

[Nick Matkin]

I watched a documentary "Why we can't predict earthquakes" very recently.

From the dedication and hard work of geologists, and their drive to find a prediction method to save lives, could someone please explain how they have overlooked this solar connection?

It seems completely unbelievable to me. And even if the sinister hand of the Illuminati (or whoever is supposedly running the world) made sure government geologists didn't make the link, many, many amateur geologists would be working on this. Any of them would love to be famous for finding the "Solar storm - earthquake link" don't you think?

It seems extraordinarily unlikely that they have all overlooked this if there were more than random correlation, let alone causal connection.

If there is a link which geologists and I have overlooked, I'd like to see the data please.

Nick

NB: Correlation is not the same as causation, but it's a good place to start.

[Fairy Friend]

We just had I think an M1 flare.

[Fairy Friend]

looks like I am NOT doing so well we are having a huge flare now. But it was worth a try and I would like to continue trying.

[Fairy Friend]

Well, I am still feeling very energized and feeling some popping and floaty. The last flare has barely settled down but I think it will not stay so long and have another fair sized M or X flare again soon. Filament still seems stable.

[Fairy Friend]

I thought we would have had another larger flare by now. Still feels like it. Only a fair C flare showed up. Interesting pic of the sun.

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like an X 2 flare woke me up. And I believe another small More flare before this one.

[Fairy Friend]

Here is the little M flare that came before it. No cme and that is good. Filament still feels stable. Lots of energy.

[Fairy Friend]

Another M flare coming in now I think.

[Fairy Friend]

Okay barely an M flare, thought it was going to be an M2. loopy with energy.

[Fairy Friend]

I watched a documentary "Why we can't predict earthquakes" very recently.

From the dedication and hard work of geologists, and their drive to find a prediction method to save lives, could someone please explain how they have overlooked this solar connection?

It seems completely unbelievable to me. And even if the sinister hand of the Illuminati (or whoever is supposedly running the world) made sure government geologists didn't make the link, many, many amateur geologists would be working on this. Any of them would love to be famous for finding the "Solar storm - earthquake link" don't you think?

It seems extraordinarily unlikely that they have all overlooked this if there were more than random correlation, let alone causal connection.

If there is a link which geologists and I have overlooked, I'd like to see the data please.

Nick

NB: Correlation is not the same as causation, but it's a good place to start.

It was not my intent to ignore you. But perhaps I can give you a key to the connection... it is not just solar flares that triggers earthquakes. The Earth's magnetic field points north but the sun's magnetic field is much more complicated. So it has a lot to do with it the sun's magnetics... If it is pointing south and interacts with the Earth's magnetic field, they will cancel each other out at the point of contact. If the sun's magnetic field is north they complement each other.

So why flares relate to produce a surge or uptick an earthquakes... the important key is to look at the bz (interplanetary magnetic field) and see which direction the sun's magnetic field is pointing. If it is very south, it will cancel out at the point of contact and create a small hole for plasma, protons etc to penetrate into the atmosphere of Earth. And this causes earthquakes of higher magnitude and numbers. There is also the factor of the angle of this connection. And it's kind of a guessing game as to where these connections will occur. And how much penetration into the atmosphere will occur.

I would refer you to suspiciousObservers for much more details on the subject. It would be nice if NASA and USGS would communicate more with each other. Great progress would be made. Hope this helps.

edit on: you should also be aware of coronal holes being a factor of which Bob has a separate thread for those. They also can relate to earthquake activity.

Also, to point out because this huge sunspot has not produced a cme so it keeps flaring. They tend to settle down once a coronal mass ejection occurs. So it's easy to predict it will keep flaring.

Still way energized, hot and the popping has started again.

[Fairy Friend]

Another little M flare coming in.

[Fairy Friend]

I think we maybe even getting another x-class flare coming in a lot of energy here

[Fairy Friend]

Sorry only a M 4 or so.

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like 2 M flares. And there was an M1.2 just prior to these two.

[Fairy Friend]

And another one pops. I am feeling a little bit of aching pain with this one and am wondering if this has a cme component.

[Fairy Friend]

Unfortunately, I did not get to the Lasco imagery to confirm a cme or not. But I do feel some relief now. It doesn't look like a lot was ejected.

[Fairy Friend]

Well, earthquakes are high in number and Peru recently had a 5.6. So this is my first earthquake prediction on this thread. The earth, the Sun and Venus are in alignment and even though the proton count is not extremely high (not quite normal), I am going to say Java or Papa New Guinea as a possible Six magnitude earthquake in the next few days. Feeling rather tired and thought I'd check the bz and it was south but I think I might have been mistaken on that but because there are so many quakes they sometimes will set off a bigger one.

[Fairy Friend]

And still another M class flare coming in.

[Fairy Friend]

And the flares continue. ...more coming in.

[Fairy Friend]

Flares continue...X flare.

[Fairy Friend]

Interesting one of those flares did produced a cme according to suspiciousObservers but I am not sure if it was the one I had identified as. I am still feeling some what hot and flushed and expect more flares but not popping that I usually do get, so assuming this will settle down first before it pops again. Also feeling some twinges and aches that started after this flare. So the next one may have a little bit of a coronal mass ejection. It seems to not want to cut loose quite yet.

[Fairy Friend]

I think a minor M flare coming in.

[Fairy Friend]

M1.4 indeed minor flare. Energy is just very intense yet.

[Fairy Friend]

I am starting to get popping again but not too intense of energy I'm thinking around M4 Class maybe coming up in a while. The cme noted above was a few days ago.

[Fairy Friend]

Another M class flare coming in.

[Fairy Friend]

M 3.5 flare came in.

[Fairy Friend]

Make that 2 M flares.

[Fairy Friend]

The huge sunspot is turning away but I think it has at least one more pop for us. Putting it again in the M 4 to M 6 range.

[Fairy Friend]

Well, earthquakes are high in number and Peru recently had a 5.6. So this is my first earthquake prediction on this thread. The earth, the Sun and Venus are in alignment and even though the proton count is not extremely high (not quite normal), I am going to say Java or Papa New Guinea as a possible Six magnitude earthquake in the next few days. Feeling rather tired and thought I'd check the bz and it was south but I think I might have been mistaken on that but because there are so many quakes they sometimes will set off a bigger one.

Tonga had a 6.1 magnitude quake.

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Another incoming flare.

[Fairy Friend]

Only an M 1.6 flare.

[Fairy Friend]

I'm feeling a lot of energy and it's getting rather heavy and intense although the popping is rather minor and just started. But I still think we're going to get a parting pop from the big guy and the M4 to M6 range. A little ways off, 4 hours or so. Note above the alert went out before I had an opportunity to post on the M 1 flare. Also my listing of the magnitude of the flare may be off if it is coming from an alert sometimes they are not perfect and sometimes I just eyeball the graph to give a quick estimate.

According to suspiciousObservers this is the largest sunspot in 25 years and it has been quite the learning curve for me.

[Fairy Friend]

No big pop from the big sunspot but there is a cme coming from the back side of the sun.

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like we are getting another minor flare now. The giant sunspots seems to be whispering it's goodbye. Had one barely M class prior to this. Bz is slightly south so this is good, we don't want this or the filament also present to do any big popping.

[Nick Matkin]

Earthquake in Nottinghamshire (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29810050).

Nick

[Fairy Friend]

Getting but minor flares as the big guy exits the scene. I will take the lots of little pops over a bigger one at this point. Feels pretty quiet now.

I still feel hot with a lot of energy but no popping.

We are still listed as an 85% chance of m-class flare and a 45% chance of a X class flare going off.

[Fairy Friend]

Had some minor flares and this last M 2.3 may not have come from the big sunspot. Still feeling hot and flushed but no major popping.

[Fairy Friend]

It looks like a M 3.6 popped with some cme component possibly.

[Fairy Friend]

We have had minor flaring as the big sunspot has moved on. Earthquakes are going down but noted a 5.7 near Java Indonesia and two 5.2 in Papa New Guinea. Rather quiet.

[Fairy Friend]

Flares are quiet and although earthquake numbers are going down finally, there have been some earthquakes in odd spots. According to suspiciousObservers we have had some Plasma penetration. Earthquakes in odd spots (usually meaning not on fault lines) such as Uganda and Tanzania in Africa, Argentina and Russia near the Mongolia border.

I am wondering if we have some minor flaring coming up with this new sunspot coming round. Only minor popping.

[crosby]

Thank you for being so diligent with your thread Fairy Friend. It is good to be informed.
warmest regard,
crosby

[Fairy Friend]

We may have some filament activity coming in. The incoming side of the Sun not that huge filament that was present before. The coronal holes look very dark and ominous, both. Heavy energy is coming in. Protons up a little bit but not bad.

[Fairy Friend]

Filament eruption indeed.

[Roisin]

We may have some filament activity coming in. The incoming side of the Sun not that huge filament that was present before. The coronal holes look very dark and ominous, both. Heavy energy is coming in. Protons up a little bit but not bad.

This was already occurring when you posted this post. lol

[Roisin]

Flares are quiet and although earthquake numbers are going down finally, there have been some earthquakes in odd spots. According to suspiciousObservers we have had some Plasma penetration. Earthquakes in odd spots (usually meaning not on fault lines) such as Uganda and Tanzania in Africa, Argentina and Russia near the Mongolia border.

I am wondering if we have some minor flaring coming up with this new sunspot coming round. Only minor popping.


In fact, those flares were already occurring when you posted this post too. My guess is that you didn't know that.

[Fairy Friend]

Flares are quiet and although earthquake numbers are going down finally, there have been some earthquakes in odd spots. According to suspiciousObservers we have had some Plasma penetration. Earthquakes in odd spots (usually meaning not on fault lines) such as Uganda and Tanzania in Africa, Argentina and Russia near the Mongolia border.

I am wondering if we have some minor flaring coming up with this new sunspot coming round. Only minor popping.


In fact, those flares were already occurring when you posted this post too. My guess is that you didn't know that.

I was confirming a prediction I made hours earlier. Lol Just also confirming that the protons were going to go up.

[Roisin]

There have been a number of times when I will be making a prediction about something having to do with earthquakes, for example, only to then find out that whatever it was that I was predicting, unbeknownst to me, was actually already happening at that very moment when I "predicting it". So this appears to be the case in your case too with those flares from those filaments... they were already flaring up when you were saying that that's what may very well happen. That's the way I see it and just wanted to reiterate on that for more clarity.

[Roisin]

Meant to post what I had here in the Solar Stuff thread.

[Wind]

I don't usually report anything, but yesterday like usually I had the wobbly feeling for some time and after that came the Easter Island quake, I guess they're the L-waves and knew that quakes were coming, always the same thing. I'm not particularly keen to feel such things, but I guess it comes with the territory and it has been occuring for some time now. I don't really understand the science behind it, other than that everything is connected. I have my theories about it, how it's related to the awakened pineal gland and other things too...

[Roisin]

I've been feeling a lot energy coming in since the night before last and it hasn't let up either so I can relate to what you're saying but I didn't experience any ground vibrations like I sometimes do when a big one is coming up or is actually occurring some place in the world.

[Roisin]

Whoa.... where am I? Who am I? I thought I posted those last 2 posts here in the Solar Stuff thread? There are too many Solar and earthquake threads here. V. confusing keeping track on which one I'm posting in. lol

[Rocky_Shorz]

energy hitting at 16, bigger quakes rising and we're about to get brushed by the last CME...

[Wind]

The world is wobbling a bit and it's causing some nausea, I wonder if there will be quakes...

[Rocky_Shorz]

How to forecast an earthquake by Dutchsinse (http://dutchsinse.com/12152014-how-to-forecast-an-earthquake/)

[Fairy Friend]

We had a couple of m flares go off but I am still feeling very energized and am thinking we are going to get another flare more like a M 8 possibly in the X flare range. Prior cmes are due to impact as well.

[Fairy Friend]

Well only a C9.5 popped but I expect more and a 5.6 earthquake occurred in Guadeloupe just after.

[Wind]

You were right, Fairy Friend and I'm very glad to see you here again!

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like an X flare.

[Fairy Friend]

We had an unusual uptick in energy and I feel very energized and flushed but only minor popping so I'm expecting maybe an M class flare. Impulsive M 4 but I'm putting it in the M2 to M6 range. I expected more C Flare activity to happen first and this may be a ways down the road yet.

I feel a possible minor filament eruption may be involved as well but not too much cme component earth directed. Bz is slightly north but I still expect a possible 6 magnitude earthquake. Things seem very unstable especially near the Carlsberg Ridge, Mexico or Alaska. It's been awhile since we've had a major flare.

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like a small impulsive M 1.1 flare went off. I expected a little more energy. Will wait and see. Maybe more.

[Fairy Friend]

Looks like it was Panama. Although New Zealand also had activity and honorable mention should be given to a fair sized quake in Idaho. Bz was doing a lot of bouncing South. Bz now north but we have a strong North coronal hole.