CME Headed Towards Earth, NASA Say Solar Flare Will Strike Earth Nov.14/15

[truthseekerdan]

Coronal Mass Ejection Headed Towards Earth, NASA Say Solar Flare Will Strike Earth Nov. 14 Or 15

EARTH-DIRECTED ERUPTION: Active sunspot 1123 erupted during the early hours of Nov. 12th, producing a C4-class solar flare and apparently hurling a filament of material in the general direction of Earth.

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/499557main_c4_strip768.gif
Coronagraph images from NASA's twin STEREO spacecraft show a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the blast site and heading off in a direction just south of the sun-Earth line. The cloud could deliver a glancing blow to Earth's magnetic field sometime on Nov. 14th or 15th, sparking auroras.

Check back for a refined predictions later today when SOHO images of the CME become available.

New sunspot 1123 in the Sun's southern hemisphere is crackling with C-class solar flares.

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/499559main1_hmi226.jpg

Credit: SDO/HMI

[RAKMEiSTER]

ill answer same as i did on the exact same thread on camelot_forum, being:
not that just that single one, nope been a busy 2 days with biggest activity*
http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/9826/busy2days.png
*
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sxi/images/latest_goes15.png

no big cme classwise like they grade them but ^^ that

and effects our magneticfield like this, its a mess and its been a mess for a while (our magnetic protection.
http://img811.imageshack.us/img811/5299/test620101109002823xue0.jpg
http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/6393/test620101112070848.jpg

so there is no major x class cme just minor c classes.

[Alan]

A C4 class is very small, they happen all of the time. They occasionally cause very minor communication disruptions, nothing serious.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flare

http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html

[shadowstalker]

We should keep the dates in mind tho, for those wishing to use cell phone and wifi and such.

[norman]

We should keep the dates in mind tho, for those wishing to use cell phone and wifi and such.

The quirk of the generational twists and turns of technology ....ehh.

In the 'old' world of Radio Hams and all that Shortwave stuff that I tend to still keep a feeler on, The junk that the sun spews out at us is considered "GOOD NEWS". Those old Hams get very excited when the upper atmosphere is zinging with plasma ( or whatever it is ). That's when the 'conditions' as considered to be at their best for the Shortwave bounce that enables them to communicate around the curve of the planet.

[JoshERTW]

CME's aren't a big deal - even most of the big ones

X-Class is when you get crazy power grid issues.

[bluestflame]

bugger , I better get a colder esky then , weekend's not over yet

[bluestflame]

I look back on the systematic campaign to instill fear into the masses about the dangers of exposure to the suns rays and a faint hint of agenda comes into me awareness , why would they want to keep the masses , through instilled self regulating fear based programming to stay out of the suns rays ? ....

[freespirit]

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced
the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.
Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.
An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared
from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible
on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z
with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be
associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16
November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be
mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3
(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock
from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 085
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/50
Minor storm 10/45/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/50
Minor storm 10/50/30
Major-severe storm 05/20/15


Looks like the old girl is waking up.

fr

[Rocky_Shorz]

Rakmeister maybe you could answer a question...

if infrared picks up iron heated to 8 million degrees as a purple energy, once it goes through that heating process does it always register the same?

http://sdowww.lmsal.com/sdomedia/SunInTime/2010/11/11/l_094_335_193.jpg

so what happens when iron particles enter through a magnetic field?

[Bill Ryan]

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced
the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.
Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.
An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared
from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible
on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z
with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be
associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16
November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be
mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3
(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock
from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 085
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/40/50
Minor storm 10/45/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/30/50
Minor storm 10/50/30
Major-severe storm 05/20/15

Looks like the old girl is waking up.

fr

Hi, Folks -

That ideally needs a reference...

http://spaceweather.com

... and maybe just a bit of interpretation.

What the numbers mean is that there's a 10% chance of an M-class flare, and a 1% chance of an X-class flare.

C-class flares are minor. M-class flares are medium intensity. X-class flares are the big ones.

To summarize: there's some chance of some minor effects (like aurora displays, radio interference, etc). But it's not really any big deal.

If spaceweather.com (http://spaceweather.com) starts to warn us against moderate probabilities (20% or higher) of X-class flares, then we should start to pay attention.

[Rocky_Shorz]

do we have any solar experts that can confirm if the blanks in the measuring equipment over the last few days are times when Iron particles are hitting, blanking out proton/electron readings?

http://stereo.ssl.berkeley.edu/multistatus.php

[MorningSong]

It is my understanding that often the sats eclipse with the earth/moon and data may be lacking for certain intervals on the graphs, BUT I too have noticed missing data for strangely long periods of time, at times, and have wondered if it were due to some sort of "shut down" meccanism to avoid damage to the sats in the event of incoming solar storm activity.

I often check out this site (http://pixie.spasci.com/DynMod/) to confirm my suspicion, if possible.

Or I look at this: http://www2.nict.go.jp/y/y223/simulation/realtime/

At the moment, we are in a flow of space wind (speed is high although density is low) caused by the CME's of 2-3 days ago.

Your link is interesting, Rocky, and, yes, I'd bet that the lack of data has something to do with "interference" and suspect that the sat is protecting itself therefore the data uptake gets interupted. Just my guess... I'm no expert.

If you look at this other link (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/pro_3d.html) or (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/index.html), the data doesn't appear missing, just fluctuating a lot.

[Rocky_Shorz]

I'm still trying to find data relating to affects Iron particles have on the Magnetic field surrounding the earth...

everyone knows what happens when a piece of Iron gets close to a magnet...

could this in a way be creating an iron shield around our planet?

[bashi]

I'm still trying to find data relating to affects Iron particles have on the Magnetic field surrounding the earth...

everyone knows what happens when a piece of Iron gets close to a magnet...

could this in a way be creating an iron shield around our planet?

why are you so obsessed with Iron?

[Rocky_Shorz]

I'm looking for someone with knowledge of the earth's Magnetic field and how it is affected being bombarded by iron particles...

I'm wondering if the iron stays in the magnetic field, or if it passes through collecting electrons.