What happened to the predicted economic collapse of China ?

[lucidity]

Hello Siblings,

Remember how on 9th of July Stefan Molyneux was talking about the stock
market collapse in China and how there would be 'No economic recovery'.

China being by far the world's greatest producer of ...well... everything.
China being the world's greatest holders of US and European debt.
China being increasingly integrated into new trading partnerships with
Brazil, Russia, India, Africa ...etc.

Right.. but if there's a dip in the Chinese stock market... there will be
no economic recovery for China. What a complete load of horse sh!t.

http://www.rt.com/op-edge/310774-china-economy-crisis-communist/

be happy :-)

lucidity

[risveglio]

Were all US economists calling for a collapse? I heard a lot of people calling it a buyers opportunity. I have heard people convinced we should change our dollars to yuan. It's probably safe to just buy defense contracts but I am in no place to gamble invest.

This guy seems to think that somehow this proves Communism wins. These people scare me.

[ghostrider]

humanity has a short memory, four years ago President Obama borrowed 5 trillion from China ... here's the thing people miss , China had 5 TRILLION to spare ... also there was an Asian group a while back that tossed 3 trillion into the economy over there ... again they had a spare 3 trillion ... there is no greater fear weapon than talk of money failing , that gets everyone's attention across cultures and Nations ...

[Ernie Nemeth]

Forgot to consider the obvious answer to my own question: If all the countries are in debt, who has all the money.

The bankers seem to have run to China to hide their ill gotten goodies.

[Fiberglut]

Money is debt.

[idiit]

If all the countries are in debt, who has all the money.


^ black budgets. I think the secret space program probably exists. if it does then this is where lots of it went.

china hold's all their own debt. when someone else hold your debt they own you; kinda the Rothschild mo.

china is unloading their treasury bills/notes big time directly. they are also unloading lots of their foreign debt indirectly. the "fed"is having to not only virtual qe to infinity to uphold the markets but they are also having to buy back lots of direct and indirect unloading of T-bills/notes.

indirect unloading is when they swap their foreign debt holdings ( t-bills/notes) for assets. direct unloading is when they don't roll over a bill/note that has come to maturity.

the indirect unloading is huge and off the radar screen.

the direct unloading is scary enough:


The news isn’t necessarily that China just reported a massive increase in its gold holdings of some 600 tons, but rather, that they have actively dumped hundreds of billions of dollars worth of U.S. Treasuries over the last 15 months, with some $224 billion having been offloaded in just the last 90 days.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/shock-report-china-dumps-half-a-trillion-dollars-something-is-very-very-wrong/

[ThePythonicCow]

humanity has a short memory, four years ago President Obama borrowed 5 trillion from China
I have follow such matters for many years now ... I have no recollection of such and doubt your claim. Do you have any references or evidence in support of this claim that you can provide us?

[ghostrider]

yes hang on a second .

[idiit]

the governments of china and Russia have huge physical gold holdings. the ppl of china and india have huge physical gold holdings. gold will get revalued overnight and the tables will have turned.

the usa gold at fort knox was leased out ( Rehypothecated) long ago. all gone.

Russia and china grossly underreport their physical gold holdings while they buy as much as they can at artificially suppressed low low prices. the usa gold is grossly over reported (gone).

when gold gets revalued overnight all will become clear.

[ThePythonicCow]

Forgot to consider the obvious answer to my own question: If all the countries are in debt, who has all the money.

The bankers seem to have run to China to hide their ill gotten goodies.

"Classical" money, such as gold, is either here or there. It is one thing, of generically accepted value.

"Modern" money, such as dominates our financial systems of at least the last couple of centuries, is based on debt, which means it is lent into existence, and has two parts:

the present value, such as the cash or credit to one's checking account, and
the future value, such as the promissory note or mortgage or bond that promises the future delivery of value, perhaps all at once on redemption, perhaps as an ongoing income stream of payments, and/or perhaps as collateral or property or income streams that might be seized in case of non-payment.

The present value of the immense amount of money "created" (lent into existence) in the last several decades (roughly since the Great Depression and World War II marked the last great monetary reset) has been spent, and the future promised value expected in return now vastly exceeds what can be delivered.

So soon there shall be another great monetary reset (already in progress, actually, but not yet so obviously that most people in the most countries see it with certainty.)

The recent crash in the Chinese stock markets, and the subsequent strange shutdown for most of a day of the New York Stock Exchange (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/09/business/dealbook/new-york-stock-exchange-suspends-trading.html?_r=0) are likely superficial in one sense ... not the actual and final collapse ... but rather the earlier pre-warnings, quite possibly deliberately caused by "the other side" (the CIA and Western Finance and Intelligence causing the Chinese stock market woes, and China in turn hacking the New York Stock Exchange.)

[ghostrider]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKPjhDYvkfg this one recently , I'm looking for the main one where America borrowed 5 trillion from China I remember the day , it was all over talk radio and people were upset about it ... it was a little over four years ago I believe ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqU_DR1SHr4 http://godfatherpolitics.com/8360/obamas-borrowed-more-money-than-all-previous-presidents-combined/ http://www.infowars.com/obama-has-stolen-5-3-trillion-from-our-children-in-order-to-make-himself-look-good/ ... every president borrows from China ... I remember the news conference but can't find the exact one , it was over four years ago , everyone was upset over China owning so much of our debt ...

[WhiteLove]

lucidity, You're absolutely right about that and that's as easy to validate as it is to look at the price of Gold (Gold (http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold), click on the 1 week view).

One can see that the Gold price declining trend was very stable throughout the short term high volatility period on the Shanghai stock exchange earlier this summer, which is a clear sign there was never any fundamental medium to long term negative speculations going on at the time of these declines. Now, that does not mean that new sudden and dramatic declines could not resume this week, but I think it shows exactly what you say lucidity and therefore your point makes sense in my view... (technically speaking)

[ThePythonicCow]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKPjhDYvkfg this one recently , I'm looking for the main one where America borrowed 5 trillion from China I remember the day , it was all over talk radio and people were upset about it ... it was a little over four years ago I believe ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqU_DR1SHr4 http://godfatherpolitics.com/8360/obamas-borrowed-more-money-than-all-previous-presidents-combined/ http://www.infowars.com/obama-has-stolen-5-3-trillion-from-our-children-in-order-to-make-himself-look-good/ ... every president borrows from China ... I remember the news conference but can't find the exact one , it was over four years ago , everyone was upset over China owning so much of our debt ...
Ah - that's different :).

Obama did not borrow $4 Trillion from China in one year.

Rather, the US government, while Obama has been President, has been increasing US debt at (give or take) $1 Trillion per year, China has been investing in US properties and assets for the last decade, and China held at most some 1 or 1.5 trillion dollars of US debt which they accumulated over the previous decade (and are now reducing).

[BenzSolo]

The Elite are not ready to collapse any large economy, when they do collapse things, it will be the whole world economy that crashes, it will be total and across the board. The Elite are waiting for something to happen first, THEN they will collapse the economy. That is why so many people who study economics, trends, patterns what have you, keep predicting collapse, but then nothing happens. When the Elite want a big collapse, it will happen. And yes I was one of those who was predicting a major collapse in 2012 or 2013, I was not paying attention to a few pieces that are out there....The Elite are waiting, we are in the final stretch though, at most 5 years before it all hits the fan

[ThePythonicCow]

The Elite are waiting, we are in the final stretch though, at most 5 years before it all hits the fan
Once again (this must be the third or fourth time in the last few years) I am predicting a major collapse beginning this fall, though it may take a couple of years of unfolding events. Sooner or later, perhaps in hindsight, I'll get this right <grin>.

[amor]

That Pastor (whose name presently escapes me and who claims to have received word directly from a member of the Elite) said that the Elite will first Bankrupt every nation and person on the planet and then pull the plug. They can pull the plug on the computer system which is really the banking system at any time, bankrupting everyone.

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Pastor Lindsey Williams.

[lucidity]

The Elite are not ready to collapse any large economy, when they do collapse things, it will be the whole world economy that crashes, it will be total and across the board. The Elite are waiting for something to happen first, THEN they will collapse the economy. That is why so many people who study economics, trends, patterns what have you, keep predicting collapse, but then nothing happens. When the Elite want a big collapse, it will happen. And yes I was one of those who was predicting a major collapse in 2012 or 2013, I was not paying attention to a few pieces that are out there....The Elite are waiting, we are in the final stretch though, at most 5 years before it all hits the fan

Welcome BenzSolo,

I suspect all the predictions about a collapse are correct.
But perhaps the collapse is actually happening right now... and has been happening
since 2008. Perhaps the collapse is a work in progress that will take decades to
play out.... so... it's a slow motion car crash.... from the pavement, in slow motion,
it all looks rather uneventful.

I predict the re-emergence of crypto currencies. (Watch litecoin)

I predict the massively inflated value of gold in 10 or 20 years
(as some modernised version of the gold standard is reinstated)

I predict european and (north and south) american kids will start
learning chinese and hindi.

be happy :-)

lucidity

[Lifebringer]

Haven't you heard they are speculation exaggerating liars? Don't believe their hype to try and get investors in China to pull a run. FDR had the same media hype and said: "We have nothing to fear, but fear itself."

[ghostrider]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKPjhDYvkfg this one recently , I'm looking for the main one where America borrowed 5 trillion from China I remember the day , it was all over talk radio and people were upset about it ... it was a little over four years ago I believe ...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqU_DR1SHr4 http://godfatherpolitics.com/8360/obamas-borrowed-more-money-than-all-previous-presidents-combined/ http://www.infowars.com/obama-has-stolen-5-3-trillion-from-our-children-in-order-to-make-himself-look-good/ ... every president borrows from China ... I remember the news conference but can't find the exact one , it was over four years ago , everyone was upset over China owning so much of our debt ...
Ah - that's different :).

Obama did not borrow $4 Trillion from China in one year.

Rather, the US government, while Obama has been President, has been increasing US debt at (give or take) $1 Trillion per year, China has been investing in US properties and assets for the last decade, and China held at most some 1 or 1.5 trillion dollars of US debt which they accumulated over the previous decade (and are now reducing).

exactly ... also , he did raise the debt ceiling and borrow just like presidents ( Bush) before him , to pay the interest on the debt ...

[Lifebringer]

Wall Street saw China's actual gold amounts, and if China and Brics take their "hard precious metals assets out of banks, they would have noything but paper, no different than monopoly money, and you can't spend it anywhere, whereas GOLD, Silver and other metals used in pc's will be around for the demand of the future.

Gold goes everywhere and spend every place.

[Lancet]

Just wanna add, my in law does air freight, specialising in China, and he says its pretty bad, even with the e-commerce boom. he says sea freight is taking big hits due to low demand for petroleum products (each shipment is now running at a loss), land freight is slowing. He keeps pushing, being the businessman he is.:blushing:.

The real world ecomony is slowing rapidly, most companies are seeing their projections and figures, for example caterpillar:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-20/caterpillar-what-second-great-depression-looks

The CEO's are resigning cos they see the inevitability of collapse. TPTB can only do so much, they can't manipulate every market in every country all of the time. Sure stocks, gold silver, and other national indicators get the treatment in europe, us and china. Perhaps these companies will be bailed out again or be nationalized in other countries if they threaten to sink the entire system.. IMO they will bail them if if necessary eg banks, GM, ford, etc just to keep the game going that much longer. I dont know if that can be done indefinitely.

i also doubt the ability of BRICs and AIIB to be the saviour when the global economy crashes as these countries are part of it. they may have to save themselves first.

I might suggest that ppl will only realise the game is up when harsh economic realities set in (when real companies lay ppl off and downsize) in every sector of the economy and still see a beautiful stock market. i hate say it, but ppl only awaken when they are personally and individually affected.

JT

[idiit]

Chinese Stocks Suffer Second Biggest Crash In History, 1,500 Companies Halted Limit Down
Tyler Durden's picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/27/2015


Actually, there is another question: the last time Chinese stocks had a near-record crash, the PBOC somehow "discovered" 600 tons of gold hiding under the couch to prop up confidence. We wonder how much it will "discover" this time.



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/chinese-stocks-suffer-second-biggest-crash-history-1500-companies-halted-limit-down



ppl I follow think this is probably orchestrated by the elites wanting to maintain their ability to virtually create $trillions ( federal reserve notes) out of thin air, loan it to corrupt government officials of sovereign nations with interest and then asset strip the chumps after they have to default. GREECE for example.

all wars lead to gold. all wars are banker's wars and the banksters hate real money; gold/silver .999 bullion.

^ this is why you should not place your lifetime ( sometimes generations) of savings into paper promises ( stock certificates for example) from psychopathic liars.

no one can keep you from selling your physical bullion on the black/grey markets for necessities when the atms, stock markets, banks are closed down by those scoundrels placed in power of the different sovereign nations.

[MorningSong]

For what it's worth, I am not an economics person and words and graphs help my feeble understanding find meaning... From the article at zerohedge.com:


This was not supposed to happen.

After pledging, investing and otherwise guaranteeing the Chinese stock market to the tune of 10% of GDP, and intervening on at least 40 different occasions in the past month ever since China's stock bubble burst in late June, with the subsequent crash nearly taking the Shanghai Composite red for the year, overnight China officially lost control for the second time, when after a weak start to the Monday trading session, things turned very ugly in the last hour, when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.48%, closing nearly at the lows, and tumbling some 345 points for its biggest one-day drop since February 2007 and its second biggest crash in history!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/07-overflow/20150726_china6_0.jpg

Here's more:


China Stocks Suffer Sharpest Daily Fall Since 2007
Worries the flow of government support will dry up sparks heavy selling


By Chao Deng
Updated July 27, 2015 9:02 a.m. ET
76 COMMENTS

China stocks suffered their sharpest daily percentage decline since 2007, as worries mount that authorities are pulling back on measures to prop up the market.

The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 8.5% at 3725.56, its second-straight day of losses and worst daily percentage fall since February 27, 2007. China’s main index is up 6% from its recent low on July 8, but still off 28% from its high in June.

The smaller Shenzhen Composite fell 7% to 2160.09 and the small-cap ChiNext Closed 7.4% Lower at 2683.45.

Analysts say investors fearful the government would curb its purchases of blue-chip stocks sparked Monday’s selling. Others said officials could be testing whether the market can support itself.

Authorities may want to “test whether the market has recovered its resilience,” said Fu Xuejun, a strategist at Huarong Securities. “The government wants to use state funds to stabilize the market, not to prop it back to 5000 points overnight.”

Earlier this month, 21 brokerages pledged to support the Shanghai index as long as it stayed below the 4500 level. Before Monday, China’s main stock market had rallied for three-straight weeks.

Local brokerages estimate that a state-owned fund called China Securities Financial Corp. has spent hundreds of billions of yuan in supporting the market, although authorities haven’t disclosed a total figure.

“The selling of blue chips would be consistent with concerns that the government is withdrawing support from blue chips,” said Gerry Alfonso, director of trading at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. But “there hasn’t been any official announcement regarding a slowing down of purchases” by authorities, he added.

Monday’s swift fall came as a surprise to many analysts, prompting speculation that officials might step in with fresh rescue measures.

“I am positive that we will see state support emerging again in the next two days,” said Mr. Zhang.

Meanwhile, sharply lower liquidity has exacerbated the volatility. Turnover on the mainland-listed market has hovered about 1.2 trillion yuan ($193.28 billion) in recent days, compared with more than 2 trillion yuan before the market slump, according to Qian Qimin from Shenyin Wanguo Securities.

More than half of the stocks in the Shanghai Composite hit their down limit on Monday. While limits on sharp stock movements prevented hundreds of stocks from logging sharper declines, they also can make it harder for investors to exit positions. China’s market rules prevent share prices from moving freely once they rise or fall by 10%.

Meanwhile, hundreds of stocks that were halted during the throes of the rout have returned to trade. Still, investors spooked that suspensions would lock up capital have been pulling out of Chinese stocks for the past few weeks. Investors sold stocks during 13 of the past 16 trading sessions via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, a trading link connecting the two cities that launched in November. Cumulative outflows now total 39.9 billion yuan.

Disappointing economic data also could be adding to the gloom. Earlier, data showed industrial profits in China falling 0.3% in June from a year ago, after rising the previous two months.

Elsewhere, other Asian markets declined more modestly, pressured by disappointing earnings results overseas.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 3.1%. Australia’s S&P ASX 200 rose 0.4%, Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 1% and South Korea’s Kospi was off 0.4%.

Asian currencies continued to feel the pressure of a strong U.S. dollar amid expectations for U.S. interest rates to rise later this year, with some hitting fresh multiyear lows.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-stocks-fall-pressured-by-weak-earnings-overseas-1437961185

And the aftershock in European markets:



Milan, European markets follow Shanghai's drop

Investors nervous over outlook for China's economy

Rome, July 27 - Milan's leading financial index joined other European markets in showing heavy losses Monday after Shanghai Composite Index made one of its worst showings in years. Milan's FTSE Mib lost 1.66% by mid-day Monday to reach 23,116.85 points, while Paris's financial market shed 1.4%, Frankfurt fell by 1.2%, Madrid dropped 0.7%, and London traded 0.2% lower. The losses came after Shanghai fell by 8.5%, its worst one-day fall since February 2007, according to published reports. Investors appeared to be nervous about weakness in the Chinese economy and financial markets-

http://www.lagazzettadelmezzogiorno.it/english/milan-european-markets-follow-shanghai-s-drop-no836491

Here's some update on the US markets...notice all of the red letters (losses) while gold and silver recuperate a bit:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-poised-to-join-in-global-selloff-led-by-china-2015-07-27

[Rocky_Shorz]

Almost 10% drop in China's stock market today...

[risveglio]

So soon there shall be another great monetary reset (already in progress, actually, but not yet so obviously that most people in the most countries see it with certainty.)



Paul, do you have a thread on what you think this reset will be? How the possible IMF reclassification of the yuan fit in or the new BRICS bank fit in?

I have really been enjoying your posts lately though the geek in me always feels a need to start up a game of Civ after reading our world events. Thanks for them.

[ThePythonicCow]

Paul, do you have a thread on what you think this reset will be? How the possible IMF reclassification of the yuan fit in or the new BRICS bank fit in?

I have really been enjoying your posts lately though the geek in me always feels a need to start up a game of Civ after reading our world events. Thanks for them.
Thanks for the kind words, and yes, Sid Meier's Civilization is a fine game (the only one I've played in recent years.)

My financial posts are a bit scattered. Every few months, I might start up a new thread on some aspect of it, but I will then usually let that thread devolve into a wider discussion, beyond the scope of whatever prompted my opening post.

Some of my "financial" threads of the last year:

Global Currency Reset (SDR's and the New Bretton Woods; by JC Collins) (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?76591-Global-Currency-Reset--SDR-s-and-the-New-Bretton-Woods-by-JC-Collins-)
The economic train wreck (was "Lindsey Williams warning of May 2014") (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?71073-The-economic-train-wreck--was-Lindsey-Williams-warning-of-May-2014--)
The U.S. And EU Will Collapse Regardless Of Economic ‘Contagion’ -- another fine Brandon Smith article (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?83241-The-U.S.-And-EU-Will-Collapse-Regardless-Of-Economic---Contagion----another-fine-Brandon-Smith-article-)
The essence of debt money: Banks have exclusive license to interchange (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?83854-The-essence-of-debt-money-Banks-have-exclusive-license-to-interchange-value-for-promises)

My present expectations are for the serious fireworks to begin in about September 2015, and I've advised a couple of close friends to get out of debt, stocks, bonds, large bank accounts, 401K's, IRA's, by the end of August 2015, even if that means taking a hit on taxes. The initial fireworks might include a sharp rise in the US stock and bond markets and a final sharp fall in gold and silver ... but that would only be because other markets and nations fell first.

Especially get out of debt - debt is almost always predicated on a future cash flow (e.g., you keep your job, so you can continue to pay the mortgage). Downsize. Do whatever you can to minimize your cash flow needs.

Also reduce or eliminate financial entanglements. Increase your financial flexibility.

The debt-money pyramid built around the US Dollar, Dollar denominated debt, and closely entangled Euro and Yen money and debt markets, and all the promises of future value in savings, retirement funds, pension plans, stock and bond valuations, real estate valuations, insurance plans, government social programs ... must and will collapse.

Regarding the BRICS nations and their financial alternative being put into place; I am quite undecided so far as to whether they represent a "better future", or just the usual "looks nice alternative" presented by the real bastards in power, as part of the usual problem-reaction-solution dynamic to control humanity.

[Bubu]

That Pastor (whose name presently escapes me and who claims to have received word directly from a member of the Elite) said that the Elite will first Bankrupt every nation and person on the planet and then pull the plug. They can pull the plug on the computer system which is really the banking system at any time, bankrupting everyone.

¤=[Post Update]=¤

Pastor Lindsey Williams.

bankrupting everyone will be the last thing they want cause it will cause people to look and be aware. The strategy is to tighten the chains ever so carefully that no one notice they are chained. Its the same as ever. from chaos will arise order.

[ThePythonicCow]

bankrupting everyone will be the last thing they want cause it will cause people to look and be aware. The strategy is to tighten the chains ever so carefully that no one notice they are chained. Its the same as ever. from chaos will arise order.
I would agree ... almost. A few will be made bankrupt, abruptly, and encouraged to riot, to serve as an example to the rest of us, reminding us to keep our heads down and stay out of trouble and be grateful that things aren't as bad for us, and be grateful that the one's in charge are keeping things under control. The many are controlled with demonstrations of the bastards ability to control the few, and the many are made grateful for that control, or at least acquiescent to it.

[idiit]

This Is How Absolutely Insane The Stock Market Crash Is In China
July 28, 2015


From Art Cashin's notes: Shanghai plunged the equivalent of 1485 Dow points (on Monday). The 75 to 1 negative breadth in Shanghai is positively mind-boggling, exacerbated by the fact that hundreds and hundreds of other stocks never even opened due to extreme selling pressure. Those figures convey the image of a selloff that turned into a stampede when the mob realized that "Daddy" had not shown up to stem the tide.

Overnight And Overseas – Shanghai was relatively calm overnight with the operative word being relatively. In the morning session, it plunged 5% (875 Dow points). In the afternoon session, buying of government owned banks cut the day's closing loss to 1.7% (295 Dow points). The small cap index did not do as well.

http://kingworldnews.com/this-is-how-absolutely-insane-the-stock-market-crash-is-in-china/

[3(C)+me]

bankrupting everyone will be the last thing they want cause it will cause people to look and be aware. The strategy is to tighten the chains ever so carefully that no one notice they are chained. Its the same as ever. from chaos will arise order.
I would agree ... almost. A few will be made bankrupt, abruptly, and encouraged to riot, to serve as an example to the rest of us, reminding us to keep our heads down and stay out of trouble and be grateful that things aren't as bad for us, and be grateful that the one's in charge are keeping things under control. The many are controlled with demonstrations of the bastards ability to control the few, and the many are made grateful for that control, or at least acquiescent to it.

Let's not forget the people who will lose it and become unstable.