2016 could be a royal pain in the a$$

[mgray]

The market prognosticators are out in force, peering into the same crystal ball it appears, since the Street sees roughly 8% growth in equities for 2016.

Now where they see that growth is no mystery.

The Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google (Alphabet) trade is still their top pick, lacking any kind of imagination. But knowing this "hedge fund hotel" where all the fund managers are staying is good for a couple of percentage points gain on your portfolio. More... (http://wp.me/ppklu-kY)

[EWO]

They really have the FANG in the economy.

Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google

[mgray]

My predictions (http://wp.me/ppklu-kY) of 2016 were predicated on Saudi Arabia. Guess I will have fast forward my timeline.

[Bill Ryan]

A little hard to know which of many threads to post this on! :bigsmile:

From http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/12/investing/markets-sell-everything-cataclysmic-year-rbs




Sell everything! 2016 will be a 'cataclysmic year,' warns RBS

"Sell everything."

That harrowing advice is from The Royal Bank of Scotland, which has warned of a "cataclysmic year" ahead for markets and advised clients to head for the exit. Do not wait. Do not pass go.

"Sell everything except high quality bonds," warned Andrew Roberts in a note this week.

He said the bank's red flags for 2016 -- falling oil, volatility in China (http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/10/investing/china-stocks/index.html?iid=EL), shrinking world trade, rising debt, weak corporate loans and deflation -- had all been seen in just the first week of trading.

"We think investors should be afraid," he said.

Morgan Stanley warned this week that oil could touch $20 a barrel (http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/11/investing/oil-prices-strong-dollar/index.html?iid=EL). RBS says if it falls below $30, then $16 is on the horizon.

The world is in a global recession, Roberts wrote. This terrible cocktail means investors should now be thinking about getting a "return of capital, not return on capital."

RBS compares the market mood with that of 2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis.

At least then, emerging markets were there to save the world from complete collapse.

China cannot this time around, let alone any other big emerging market. RBS remains "deeply skeptical" that Chinese authorities can right the ship any time soon. It warns that without allowing a massive devaluation of its currency -- around 20% -- China can be of no help.

RBS believes China suffered a massive outflow of capital in December -- perhaps as much as $170 billion - with much of that money going straight into the dollar. A chart showing Chinese outflows in 2015 is "surely now the most important chart in the world," concluded Roberts.

[mgray]

Let's make this thread the tale of woe for 2016.

The top 400 billionaires on Bloomberg's richest list have lost $305 billion in wealth due to the falling stock prices. That accounts for only 10 trading days so far in the year.