Iran Sanctions Officially Lifted As Of Today - Agreement In Effect For 15 years

[sigma6]

'Kept nuclear promises'
- UN watchdog final report paves way for Iran sanctions relief

y96H9HWgOcI
This will lead to increased global production numbers for oil... the Saudi's must be a little disappointed today...

[Tyy1907]

So....solidifying low gas prices?

[Carmody]

Disarm and break down the puppet shows of the war machine that is attempting to embroil the middle east against the anglo/western world.

This last ditch attempt is the flooding of Europe with jihadized young men from the middle east.

They talked about Syrian refugees and so on, but the stories coming from where the 'refugees' landed, was all about wall-to-wall middle eastern young men being the vast majority of the 'refugees'.

And that is a war, an instigation of a racial, cultural, and religious war, plain and simple.

Dropping sanctions against Iran may not seem like much but in effect it is a serious move to disarm the clandestine war machine. The war machine that wants war and death to achieve power and control, the one that does not care who they kill, in order to get it.

[lucidity]

... but... the americans decided to slap some new sanction on Iran.
(presumably, because Israel told them to)

https://www.rt.com/usa/329240-us-sanctions-iran-ballistic/

[sigma6]

So....solidifying low gas prices?

and this is only one factor... now I can see why they are targeting Iran... they look like they could now be the major power in the Middle East... (the last man standing)... imo Saudi Arabia is too dependent on oil... and US protection... or used to be...

The oil glut will gut their economy and their balance sheet, so it begs the question... why are they not cutting back?...

are they that desperate to kill off future competition?... (like a patient on a prescription of antibiotics) ...or are they being put up to it?

[Bob]

There has been discussion in the oil patch with smaller operators saying they are being forced out of business, leaving the majors only able to weather the storm of the low prices. Earlier, prices were artificially boosted by speculators the 80+$ per barrel numbers with talks of speculators attempting to push to 150$ per barrel, these folks were pushing futures markets for oil pricing to make a killing at everyone's expense. (This was discussed extensively on other threads). The current insider poop has been a discussion about Russia being strangled economically by not having discretionary "mad money" available from the artificially high oil prices.. The discussion has been Iran will take the hit with lower prices and sell to Europe to further cut Russia's energy sales output (and cut-throat stranglehold on natural gas sold to Europe). Russia already has gas deals in the pipes with China who will buy at any price.

When the majors have destroyed the smaller independent operators/explorers and suppliers, prices will be pushed back up to 200 $/barrel, and the strangle-hold once again will resume on the rest of the world markets.

It is also a known INSIDER FACT that the Saud's oil output has been diminishing substantially more so than had been expected (in other words their fields are depleting and they will not have oil to sell). Iran coming back on-line could very well put them into most favored nation status, oil-supply wise, putting the House of Saud back in the status of dealing with Mers nCov and hosting trips to Mecca for religious pilgrims.

Russia's Putin blasts out that <80$/barrel oil will destroy the Russian Economy.

(source (http://www.ibtimes.com/putin-regime-could-fall-if-oil-price-drops-60-fund-manager-browder-1545877))


Putin Regime Could Fall If Oil Price Drops To $60: Fund Manager Browder

Oil per barrel has been bouncing back and forth between 29 and 32 $ per barrel (US).


A plunge in the price of crude oil to $60 per barrel could remove Russian President Vladimir Putin from power, claimed a prominent investment fund manager at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Daily Telegraph reported that in the event of a $60-per-barrel price level, “Putin would be gone within a year," said William Browder of Hermitage Capital Management, a Guernsey-based investment fund and asset management company specializing in Russian markets.

Browder also said the Putin regime is very “brittle” and that oil must be priced at $117 per barrel to enable the Russians to balance their budget. (Brent crude is currently trading at $107 and has hovered between $100 and $114 since last April. It has not been priced around $60 since the spring of 2009.)

Browder, who characterizes himself as “enemy number one” of Putin, said a price plunge would force Moscow to dig into its reserve funds, which in turn would trigger an additional capital flight out of the country. Not even Russia’s nearly half-trillion dollars in foreign reserves would provide a cushion. "We saw this in 2008 when everything fell apart in a few months even though Russia had the world's third-biggest reserves,” he told the Telegraph. “It wasn't supposed to happen, but it did."

The Telegraph noted that a possible oil glut arising from the phasing out of sanctions against Iran and renewed production from Libya could conceivably push the price of Brent crude down to $60. In the meantime, however, such a drop is unlikely. On Tuesday, oil prices climbed higher after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2014 from 3.6 percent to 3.7 percent, the IMF’s first upward revision in almost two years. In addition, the International Energy Agency increased its prediction of growth in oil consumption. The IEA said oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2014, up from a prior forecast increase of 1.2 mbd.

Russia is the world’s top oil producer (and second-largest exporter after Saudi Arabia) and relies heavily on export revenues to maintain its economy. In 2013, Russian companies produced 10.5 mbd, a 1.4 percent increase over the prior year. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters that oil production will be kept at a minimum of 10.1 million to 10.2 million bpd in the next few years and might increase to 10.8-11.0 million bpd before 2030.

Separately, Browder noted that Putin has other problems besides the price of oil; indeed, he suggests that the type of street protests convulsing Ukraine could spill over into neighboring Russia. "There is no ideological fervor [to] sustain the regime, though Putin is trying to create a new form of ideological conservatism with his attacks on gays. Putin's allies will abandon him as soon as there is trouble," Browder added.

Browder has had a stormy relationship with Putin, to put it mildly.

Listening to Russian Television (RT) try to prop up Putin, and to backpedal the maneuvor to close down Russia once and for all is 'humorous' to say the least. And that there are so many quotes from RT as the 'authority' is just as humorous (more like the alternative leading MSM propaganda 'authority').

[Bob]

... but... the americans decided to slap some new sanction on Iran.
(presumably, because Israel told them to)

https://www.rt.com/usa/329240-us-sanctions-iran-ballistic/

The feedback was Iran illegally launched/tested missiles which could be capable of carrying warheads. So it's not a matter of the 'american's' just turning around and putting some hand slap back.

This was initiated by the UN :


(source (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-missiles-un-exclusive-idUSKBN0TY1T920151216))

Iran violated a U.N. Security Council resolution in October by test-firing a missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead, a team of sanctions monitors said, leading to calls in the U.S. Congress on Tuesday for more sanctions on Tehran.

The White House said it would not rule out additional steps against Iran over the test of the medium-range Emad rocket.

The Security Council's Panel of Experts on Iran said in a confidential report, first reported by Reuters, that the launch showed the rocket met its requirements for considering that a missile could deliver a nuclear weapon.

"On the basis of its analysis and findings the Panel concludes that Emad launch is a violation by Iran of paragraph 9 of Security Council resolution 1929," the panel said.

Diplomats said the rocket test on Oct. 10 was not technically a violation of the July nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, but the U.N. report could put U.S. President Barack Obama's administration in an awkward position.

Iran has said any new sanctions would jeopardize the nuclear deal. But if Washington failed to call for sanctions over the Emad launch, it would likely be perceived as weakness.

So getting the facts straight, Security Council resolution 1929, which bans ballistic missile tests, was adopted in 2010 and remains valid until the nuclear deal is implemented.

Under that deal, most sanctions on Iran will be lifted in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. According to a July 20 resolution endorsing the deal, Iran is still "called upon" to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years.

Although the section of the July 20 resolution applying to missiles is weaker and more limited than the total ban in resolution 1929, U.S. officials have said they will continue to act as if there were a de facto total ban on ballistic missile tests by Iran in the years to come once the nuclear deal is implemented.

[lucidity]

Nuclear capable missiles are cruise missiles.
Everyone's been firing cruise missiles.
The Israel's have been firing them into the heart of Syria... at Syrian Govt forces.
It was only a year or so ago that Israel was firing missiles at Iranian Nuclear installations.
The Russians have been firing them from warships into Syria aimed at Isis.

Probably, but i don't know, the US has also been firing them at Syrian Govt force to
support the 'moderate' rebels.

This is new set of sanctions is capricious.
Applying a rule selectively against one country and not others.
The UN is not an independent body... it's dominated and controlled by the USA.
There are outstanding UN resolutions against Israel to pull back from the
occupied territories... where are the sanctions implementing those resolutions ?

be happy

lucidity

[Bob]

Nuclear capable missiles are cruise missiles.
Everyone's been firing cruise missiles.

The Israel's have been firing them into the heart of Syria... at Syrian Govt forces.

It was only a year or so ago that Israel was firing missiles at Iranian Nuclear installations.

The Russians have been firing them from warships into Syria aimed at Isis.

Probably, but i don't know, the US has also been firing them at Syrian Govt force to
support the 'moderate' rebels.

This is new set of sanctions is capricious.

Applying a rule selectively against one country and not others.

The UN is not an independent body... it's dominated and controlled by the USA.

There are outstanding UN resolutions against Israel to pull back from the
occupied terrorises... where are the sanctions implementing those resolutions ?

be happy

lucidity

Iran has been developing long range high powered precision rocket systems capable of holding multiple nuclear warheads, not simple jet engine systems (a cruise missile runs by a turbofan "jet" engine and basically flies like a drone with a warhead). There is a difference and a major significance.


http://chanlo.com/images/cruise-1.jpg

Iran is not being sanctioned for the above.

Iran IS being sanctioned for this below:


The Emad (Pillar) surface-to-surface missile, designed and built by Iranian experts, is the country's first long-range missile that can be precision-guided until it reaches its target, said Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehqan, Iran's defense minister.

"To follow our defense programs, we don't ask permission from anyone," he said, according to state-run news agency IRNA.

The new rocket is "capable of scrutinizing the targets and destroying them completely," IRNA reported.

The Emad would be Tehran's first precision-guided missile with the range to reach its enemy, Israel.

The Emad long range precision missile is a variant of Iran's existing Shahab-3 long-range missile - Shahab-3 is based on the Nodong, a North Korean missile, according to a paper by Michael Elleman, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a UK-based think tank.

Cordesman's report said Tehran has been steadily developing its missile technology, focusing in particular on improvements to guidance systems.

Its existing missiles systems had "poor accuracy and uncertain reliability," he wrote, giving them limited military effectiveness.

Since the 1979 revolution in Iran, Tehran has focused on developing its missile capability, and now boasts the "largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East," according to Elleman.

When Tehran announced in February last year that it had successfully test-fired a laser-guided surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile and a long-range ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, the Pentagon spokesman at the time, Adm. John Kirby, described the missile program as "a dangerous threat to the region."

He noted that U.N. Security Council Resolution 1929 prohibits Iran from undertaking any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using ballistic missile technology.

Having a nuclear weapon is one aspect of warfare. Having the way to deliver it is the key. And that is what the rocket based ballistic missile systems are about - developing a long range precision guided delivery system.

Sanctions are being put back in place specifically to deal with the delivery system. A poor man's nuke for instance can consist of sub-critical plutonium, or biological warfare agents, or chemical nerve agents.. The delivery system is the concern.

The phase 1 removal of sanctions deals with the NUCLEAR PROGRAM (no nuclear weapons program).

The other issue is a long range precision guided heavy lifter 'delivery system". Their new delivery system is not a SCUD. The UN said the violation by the test firing of this missile system warrants a sanction penalty.

The Iranian defense minister said the EMAD missile system would be mass produced and delivered to missile units of the Iranian Armed Forces soon.


http://cdn2.img.sputniknews.com/images/102834/00/1028340053.png

What is a sanction on the MISSILE PROGRAM of Iran?

(Source (http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/01/17/U-S-treasury-imposes-new-ballistic-missile-sanctions-on-Iran.html))


The United States imposed sanctions on 11 companies and individuals for supplying Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Five Iranian nationals and a network of companies based in the United Arab Emirates and China were added to an American blacklist (arms export control list).


The company and technology network “hid the 'end user' of sensitive goods used for missile proliferation by using front companies in third countries to deceive foreign suppliers,” the statement said, adding that the five individuals had “worked to procure ballistic missile components for Iran.”

The export control list for dual use items is a highly controlled list of items and technologies which cannot be legally exported without appropriate licenses. Iran has used technologies which they were not allowed to acquire from US/ally sources.

Sanctions on 11 front companies and individuals procuring sensitive missile technology is a WHOLE lot different than the massive nationwide economic embargo sanctions previously applied to their country.

[lucidity]

... but... the americans decided to slap some new sanction on Iran.
(presumably, because Israel told them to)

https://www.rt.com/usa/329240-us-sanctions-iran-ballistic/


Yes, as i said.
... but... the americans decided to slap some new sanction on Iran.
(presumably, because Israel told them to)

Remember, the policy of the democratically elected USA govt,
the one actively campaigned for by Obama,
has been a program of removing the sanctions against Iran
in exchange for Iran's disbanding their nuclear power generation program.

The Israelis have been hopping mad about this and have vocally opposed the
removal of sanctions against Iran.

So what happens when the policy of the American govt is finally implemented ?
The policy is sabotaged by the implementation of new sanctions.
It makes the elected American Govt look embarrassingly impotent.

Does it matter what Obama wants or does not want ?
Israel's wishes apparently override those of the president.

[sigma6]

There has been discussion in the oil patch with smaller operators saying they are being forced out of business, leaving the majors only able to weather the storm of the low prices. Earlier, prices were artificially boosted by speculators the 80+$ per barrel numbers with talks of speculators attempting to push to 150$ per barrel, these folks were pushing futures markets for oil pricing to make a killing at everyone's expense. (This was discussed extensively on other threads). The current insider poop has been a discussion about Russia being strangled economically by not having discretionary "mad money" available from the artificially high oil prices.. The discussion has been Iran will take the hit with lower prices and sell to Europe to further cut Russia's energy sales output (and cut-throat stranglehold on natural gas sold to Europe). Russia already has gas deals in the pipes with China who will buy at any price.

When the majors have destroyed the smaller independent operators/explorers and suppliers, prices will be pushed back up to 200 $/barrel, and the strangle-hold once again will resume on the rest of the world markets.

It is also a known INSIDER FACT that the Saud's oil output has been diminishing substantially more so than had been expected (in other words their fields are depleting and they will not have oil to sell). Iran coming back on-line could very well put them into most favored nation status, oil-supply wise, putting the House of Saud back in the status of dealing with Mers nCov and hosting trips to Mecca for religious pilgrims.

Russia's Putin blasts out that <80$/barrel oil will destroy the Russian Economy.

(source (http://www.ibtimes.com/putin-regime-could-fall-if-oil-price-drops-60-fund-manager-browder-1545877))


Putin Regime Could Fall If Oil Price Drops To $60: Fund Manager Browder

Oil per barrel has been bouncing back and forth between 29 and 32 $ per barrel (US).


A plunge in the price of crude oil to $60 per barrel could remove Russian President Vladimir Putin from power, claimed a prominent investment fund manager at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Daily Telegraph reported that in the event of a $60-per-barrel price level, “Putin would be gone within a year," said William Browder of Hermitage Capital Management, a Guernsey-based investment fund and asset management company specializing in Russian markets.

Browder also said the Putin regime is very “brittle” and that oil must be priced at $117 per barrel to enable the Russians to balance their budget. (Brent crude is currently trading at $107 and has hovered between $100 and $114 since last April. It has not been priced around $60 since the spring of 2009.)

Browder, who characterizes himself as “enemy number one” of Putin, said a price plunge would force Moscow to dig into its reserve funds, which in turn would trigger an additional capital flight out of the country. Not even Russia’s nearly half-trillion dollars in foreign reserves would provide a cushion. "We saw this in 2008 when everything fell apart in a few months even though Russia had the world's third-biggest reserves,” he told the Telegraph. “It wasn't supposed to happen, but it did."

The Telegraph noted that a possible oil glut arising from the phasing out of sanctions against Iran and renewed production from Libya could conceivably push the price of Brent crude down to $60. In the meantime, however, such a drop is unlikely. On Tuesday, oil prices climbed higher after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2014 from 3.6 percent to 3.7 percent, the IMF’s first upward revision in almost two years. In addition, the International Energy Agency increased its prediction of growth in oil consumption. The IEA said oil demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2014, up from a prior forecast increase of 1.2 mbd.

Russia is the world’s top oil producer (and second-largest exporter after Saudi Arabia) and relies heavily on export revenues to maintain its economy. In 2013, Russian companies produced 10.5 mbd, a 1.4 percent increase over the prior year. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters that oil production will be kept at a minimum of 10.1 million to 10.2 million bpd in the next few years and might increase to 10.8-11.0 million bpd before 2030.

Separately, Browder noted that Putin has other problems besides the price of oil; indeed, he suggests that the type of street protests convulsing Ukraine could spill over into neighboring Russia. "There is no ideological fervor [to] sustain the regime, though Putin is trying to create a new form of ideological conservatism with his attacks on gays. Putin's allies will abandon him as soon as there is trouble," Browder added.

Browder has had a stormy relationship with Putin, to put it mildly.

Listening to Russian Television (RT) try to prop up Putin, and to backpedal the maneuvor to close down Russia once and for all is 'humorous' to say the least. And that there are so many quotes from RT as the 'authority' is just as humorous (more like the alternative leading MSM propaganda 'authority').

obviously none of that is accurate... Putin is still in power... and they are continuing to pump oil and gas and expand their military assets...

And I am betting oil still hasn't reached a floor yet... and will continue to drop further in the coming months this year... and for several years to come... the biggest factor being the global economic slowdown with China leading the way...

[Bob]

I really didn't think RT was held is such high regard - (rofl)...

(Source (http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-is-behind-the-oil-war-and-how-low-will-the-price-of-crude-go-in-2015/5422544))

Historically the use of oil price control has been used and is being used once again to take out certain factions, and specifically Russia.

Ever since the price of oil started falling, people have been pointing fingers at the Saudis. And without a doubt, the Saudis have manipulated the price of oil before in order to achieve geopolitical goals. The following is an excerpt from a recent article by Andrew Topf…

We don’t have to look too far back in history to see Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter and producer, using the oil price to achieve its foreign policy objectives. In 1973, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat convinced Saudi King Faisal to cut production and raise prices, then to go as far as embargoing oil exports, all with the goal of punishing the United States for supporting Israel against the Arab states. It worked. The “oil price shock” quadrupled prices.

It happened again in 1986, when Saudi Arabia-led OPEC allowed prices to drop precipitously, and then in 1990, when the Saudis sent prices plummeting as a way of taking out Russia, which was seen as a threat to their oil supremacy. In 1998, they succeeded.

When the oil price was halved from $25 to $12, Russia defaulted on its debt.

The Saudis and other OPEC members have, of course, used the oil price for the obverse effect, that is, suppressing production to keep prices artificially high and member states swimming in “petrodollars”. In 2008, oil peaked at $147 a barrel.

Turning to the current price drop, the Saudis and OPEC have a vested interest in taking out higher-cost competitors, such as US shale oil producers, who will certainly be hurt by the lower price. Even before the price drop, the Saudis were selling their oil to China at a discount. OPEC’s refusal on Nov. 27 to cut production seemed like the baldest evidence yet that the oil price drop was really an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and the US.

If the Saudis wanted to stabilize the price of oil, they could do that immediately by announcing a production cutback.

Dropping the price per barrel down to 12$ per is a very real possibility.

I reported insider information being discussed in the Oil Patch. What is happening matches historical activity.

Confirmation by Venezuela on the assault on the Russian Economy:


Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro openly promoted this theory during a recent speech on Venezuelan national television…

“Did you know there’s an oil war? And the war has an objective: to destroy Russia,” he said in a speech to state businessmen carried live on state TV.

“It’s a strategically planned war … also aimed at Venezuela, to try and destroy our revolution and cause an economic collapse

Deny it all one wants - bringing Iranian oil online removing the sanctions is designed specifically to take out Putin, the Russian Economy. Thing is the house of Saud at this point isn't the "agent of change", Iran is with their oil surplus.

The economic strategy is very clear. "Iran Sanctions Officially Lifted As Of Today" the reason is very clear. The House of Saud no longer has the power with oil to take out Russia, Iran now has that ability. And Iran has made it very clear they are no friend of the Saud.

As to CHINA being the cause of low oil prices - this is what is reported. Who will China get the oil from is in question.. :


China’s crude oil demand estimates for 2016

Preliminary data compiled by Bloomberg suggest that China’s crude oil imports could rise by 8% to 7.2 MMbpd in 2016. The demand would be driven by teapot refineries and construction of strategic crude oil reserves.

Lower crude oil prices will also boost Chinese demand for crude oil.

China’s crude oil imports in 2015

The latest data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that China’s crude oil imports averaged 6.6 MMbpd between January 2015 and November 2015.

China’s crude oil consumption in 2015 was 8.6% more than in 2014.

The country’s oil imports peaked at 7.4 MMbpd in April 2015.

Most of the crude oil imported is going into China’s strategic reserves and refineries.

China’s crude oil inventory plans

China’s is confident about expanding its strategic crude oil reserves to 100 days of supply.

China is planning to add four more storage hubs to its eight existing reserves in 2016.

Currently, China’s crude oil inventory stands at 26 MMbbls (million barrels) and can support 29 days of supply.

The Chinese government’s strategic plans to meet the goal of 100 days of crude oil supply and demand from teapot refineries could benefit the crude oil market in 2016.

However, the weak Chinese yuan and the slowing Chinese economy will put a crack in the global oil market.

The catastrophic fall in crude oil prices affects oil producers like Apache (APA), Murphy Oil (MUR), and Hess (HES).

In contrast, lower oil prices benefit oil refiners like Tesoro (TSO), HollyFrontier (HFC), Alon USA Partners (ALDW), CVR Refining (CVRR), and Northern Tier Energy (NTI).

The ups and downs in the oil and gas market also affect ETFs like the Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY) and the ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (SCO).

There are numerous projects which have been instigated by China to develop and acquire it's own oil commodity, to not rely on others to supply (for purchase) to China. China is aware of the 'oil wars' and who is being targeted.

[sigma6]

That may be... (NOT... and here's why...) If they are building refineries and storage facilities to take advantage of lower crude prices now, which is a good strategy given their excess manufacturing over capacity ... that will only decrease their demand and need to buy in the future and increase their control (of demand) i.e. they will have the capacity to buy when prices are favourable... Also even if there is a projected 8% increase in energy demand usage? ... that is against the larger backdrop of their overall National GDP that just tanked from 10% for the last 30 years to 6.5% this year alone... That's quite a cliff jump and erases any theoretical 8% demand increase... And what is this "relative increase" for? after their GDP just dropped 35%!!??? oh yeah, they are going to build refineries and storage?? ...thus increasing future supply and availability even more... hmmm... )

re: China developing its own supply? yes and no... again, if true that would only add to world supply even more by definition!... they have a good relationship with Russia... they have purchased oil assets in Canada, and are planning to invest in Russia's developing oil and gas ventures as a joint partner... none of which changes the present calculus on existing oil supply/demand...

in any event... I wouldn't be caught dead taking a buy on oil... if you are not already in this market... now is definitely not the time to be making an entry... ('move' is already in play for several weeks and months now...)

The oil price drop is clearly hurting resource countries like Russia, Canada, and Brazil... but comparing 20 years ago with today in terms of economic strategy alone is leaving out too many other variables... (that would take another entire thread)

Saudi Arabia is lowering prices and increasing production, as opposed to limiting their exports... Even the pundits agree, this is not going to cripple Russia... Russia is also moving toward the de-dollarization of its oil export market... additionally China is on side to take up any slack... what better partner to whether the storm... after all, at the end of the day... what do you need money for? to buy products! (LoL)



...bringing Iranian oil online removing the sanctions is designed specifically to take out Putin
makes no sense, Iran and Russia are good friends and allies... (BFF... Lol)


re: China: The country’s oil imports peaked at 7.4 MMbpd in April 2015. I'd say that is about accurate.... and consider that is now almost a YEAR ago... o.O?

[Bob]

China says 29 days supply is what it had and wants strategically 100 days of reserve supply.

That says pretty clearly intent.

From 2009 prior to the forced drop (hitting the speculators squarely in the teeth for the artificial pushing of prices upwards above 100$(US)/bbl), China was actively engaged in building its energy reserves (stock plus new projects).. A project doesn't just take a YEAR to implement, and many years of development happen to go from land acquisition, exploration/drilling and finally testing and eventual production. The alternative is to buy production by securing deals at certain prices. Low cost oil benefits the buyer, high price oil benefits the seller.

Who is capturing the low cost oil should be the focus, with Iran coming on line, and Russia suffering from low prices (they need >80$ /bbl to sustain their aggressive programs) ??

Releasing the sanctions brought a large oil reserve into the system.


China is aggressively looking worldwide for oil. The major Chinese state oil companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and the China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec) are the leaders behind such initiatives. The other state sector firm in China is the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), supported by its “forward scout” PetroChina. CNOOC accounts for more than 10% of China’s domestic crude oil production. The State Energy Administration (SEA) is responsible for regulatory oversight of the industry.
CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC/PetroChina are vigorously pursuing oil supply contracts with foreign firms. To this end, the Chinese oil majors have acquired a variety of holdings in Angola, Azerbaijan, Canada, Chad, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Kazakhstan, Myanmar (Burma), Nigeria, Peru, Russia, Singapore (pending), Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Venezuela.

In particular, PetroChina is determined to on-take oil/gas infrastructure development projects and to acquire equity in oil industry assets. PetroChina is responsible for 75 projects in 29 countries and is the world’s second-biggest company by value.

Abundant with cash, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is wisely spending its US$1.95 trillion forex reserves to buy energy assets made cheaper by oil’s 52.47% decline from a record US$147.27 a barrel last July.

China's economic expansion has placed it on a collision course with global competitors in the market for scarce resources including critical oil and gas supplies. The PRC accounted for nearly 40% of the increase in global oil consumption between 2004 and 2007. In a short period of time, China has evolved from a position as an oil exporter in 1992 to the world's second largest oil importer in May 2008.

China's dependence upon oil supply

China is stepping up its means to secure additional oil supply contracts around the world. The geopolitical, economic and military implications are immense.

(Source (http://ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=197:chinas-oil-supply-dependence&catid=96:content&Itemid=345))

China stockpiling :

(July 14, 2015)


China, among the world’s largest oil consumers, seems to be making the most of the situation by stockpiling oil to increase its reserves.

China does not publicly release much petroleum-related data, but a few available details point to increased Chinese stockpiling:

A Reuters report suggests that China currently holds strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) equivalent to 30 days of imports. The Chinese government is further planning, “to build reserves of around 600 million barrels, or about 90 days of imports.”

Futuresmag reports that ChinaOil, a unit of country’s biggest energy company, bought a record 23.5 million barrels of Middle East crude on a Singapore trading platform in October 2014.
Bloomberg reports that between January and September of 2014, “China bought about 440,000 barrels a day more crude than it consumed.”

Bloomberg calculated the surplus by deducting the quantity processed by Chinese refineries from the total of imports and domestic production.

Buy low sell high strategy

Historical Instance of Similar Oil Stockpiling:

The October 1973 to March 1974 Arab oil embargo period resulted in oil prices quadrupling, leading to multiple consequences on the global economy.

While OPEC nations benefited from the jump in prices, the U.S. economy suffered.

This paved the way for the United States to form its first strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) in 1977. According to latest available data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve stands at around 690 million barrels which is sufficient to fulfill 37 days of the nation’s oil demand.

Putting that in perspective - China expects to get its strategic reserves up to 100 days.. US sits at 37.. Pulling all resources, at best 60 days.

Dots are pretty obvious. A few months of reserves are the factor if global production dwindles to jack back up prices. Historically price manipulation happens when production is manipulated and when speculation (price driving of futures) is allowed.

(BTW i am reiterating, I am relying on personal inside information relayed to me by sources whom I trust. MSM reports aside... but I do believe what I hear from those in the field, and from those who are pulling the strings.. I believe that the data that has been relayed to me is about what is happening, to whom and why.)