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View Full Version : Financial markets: Crisis is over (for now)



WhiteLove
4th February 2016, 22:42
In my previous post within this topic, I wrote:

"It is said that FED comments were behind the selling, but to me it looks more like the stock markets are being faked towards overselling, in the short term. It will be interesting to see how this develops. If this scenario turns into a second shock, meaning that a new second financial collapse risk is already starting to build up, then something truly rare is about to happen...!

There is a turnaround in the base current. Money is now flowing out of stocks, especially out of Chinese companies into mostly Gold but also Oil. The base current does not change that often, FED seems to be pretty stuck on their rate hike strategy and markets are starting to show signs of negative synchronicity. All of this indicates that eventhough the first financial crisis risk was successfully mitigated, a second wave might actually already be building up and if that is the case, then that might cause a pretty substantial sell pressure coming up."

I have now studied how the markets are moving and have concluded based on my findings that all of the latest sell movements have been done to cause over selling. Yes, the indications were that a second wave could be in the process of building up, but this turned out not to be the case. I do think the base current has changed, meaning that I do think Gold will continue to climb and that we are witnessing a huge bubble building up. But I think that the bubble will burst later this year, not within a month or something like that. For now I think stocks like Baidu have reached an interesting value at around 150 USD per stock, lots of heavy investors must have got pretty good positions at this point. Due to the fact that I'm expecting Gold prices to continue to go up, I also expect the stock markets not to rally. But I think that the markets are going to start advancing again and I think that a stock like Baidu can go up to at least 170 USD per stock from here. So when the collapse triggers later this year, Gold will be part of that sell pressure. So I am going to monitor the Gold price for when the real crash happens. When Gold turns down, then I think the big collapse is here. And stocks like Baidu will provide some obvious signs prior to that. We already saw on August 24th 2015 it could do this in a single trading day: 152.91 -> 125.15 -> 100 -> 141.08. That is a very rare stock move by a company at this size. That was the first sign of what is to come.

robinr1
4th February 2016, 22:58
I would respectfully say you have the end portion of your post backwards. When folks finally realize their paper dollars are worth less than toilet paper... I would contend the price of real goods to skyrocket. why would anyone sell gold to get fiat when the system is collapsing?

WhiteLove
4th February 2016, 23:04
I would respectfully say you have the end portion of your post backwards. When folks finally realize their paper dollars are worth less than toilet paper... I would contend the price of real goods to skyrocket. why would anyone sell gold to get fiat when the system is collapsing?

Because it is China that has the gold.

robinr1
4th February 2016, 23:17
I don't understand that at all either.....china and Russia are buying all the gold they can... again I respectfully think u have it backwards. no one will be selling gold or any real tangible goods for that matter for pieces of paper with ink on it.





I would respectfully say you have the end portion of your post backwards. When folks finally realize their paper dollars are worth less than toilet paper... I would contend the price of real goods to skyrocket. why would anyone sell gold to get fiat when the system is collapsing?

Because it is China that has the gold.

WhiteLove
4th February 2016, 23:42
I don't understand that at all either.....china and Russia are buying all the gold they can... again I respectfully think u have it backwards. no one will be selling gold or any real tangible goods for that matter for pieces of paper with ink on it.





I would respectfully say you have the end portion of your post backwards. When folks finally realize their paper dollars are worth less than toilet paper... I would contend the price of real goods to skyrocket. why would anyone sell gold to get fiat when the system is collapsing?

Because it is China that has the gold.

Because when the collapse takes place they are going to be forced to sell some of their Gold to cover up for some of their losses and they will be selling it to Russia, not to the US, at the same time that the tech, housing and credit bubble bursts in the US and around the world. In the US they will have to cover some of their losses by having to sell some of their Gold. This will in turn increase the intrinsic value of the non dollar currencies, making Gold in general less valuable relative to all of those currencies. The net effect will be that all assets that produce real value directly, will be valued higher. So it's not that Gold will lose its intrinsic value, it's more that everything else will re-gain some of the value that was eaten up by the bubble.

WhiteLove
5th February 2016, 19:32
LinkedIn -46% today = -11 billion USD

The tech bubble burst might not be here yet, but it's coming...

Again, WMT against any US tech stock, e.g. Netflix, shows this:

WMT vs NFLX (http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1454777578791&chddm=9384&chddi=86400&chls=Ohlc&cmpto=NASDAQ%3ANFLX&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE%3AWMT&fct=big&ei=0CS2VqCJMYiAsgHjrZ4Q&hl=en)

Since the beginning of 2016, the relative strength difference is 37% (in favor of WMT), which is remarkable. So something is cooking, no question...