Seas aren’t just rising, the rise is accelerating [Debunked]

[Camilo]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/08/10/seas-arent-just-rising-scientists-say-theyre-speeding-up/?utm_term=.e350fb07c16b

On a warming Earth, seas inevitably rise, as ice on land melts and makes its way to the ocean. And not only that — the ocean itself swells, because warm water expands. We already know this is happening — according to NASA, seas are currently rising at a rate of 3.5 millimeters per year, which converts to about 1.4 inches per decade.

However, scientists have long expected that the story should be even worse than this. Predictions suggest that seas should not only rise, but that the rise should accelerate, meaning that the annual rate of rise should itself increase over time. That’s because the great ice sheets, Greenland and Antarctica, should lose more and more mass, and the heat in the ocean should also increase.

The problem, or even mystery, is that scientists haven’t seen an unambiguous acceleration of sea level rise in a data record that’s considered the best for observing the problem — the one produced by the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, which launched in late 1992 and carries an instrument, called a radar altimeter, that gives a very precise measurement of sea level around the globe.

This record actually shows a decrease in the rate of sea level rise from the first decade measured by the satellite (1993 to 2002) to the second one (2003 to 2012). “We’ve been looking at the altimeter records and scratching our heads, and saying, ‘why aren’t we seeing an acceleration in the satellite record?’ We should be,” said John Fasullo, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

In a new study in the open-access journal Scientific Reports, however, Fasullo and two colleagues say they have now resolved this problem. It turns out, they say, that sea level rise was artificially masked in the satellite record by the fact that one year before the satellite launched, the Earth experienced a major cooling pulse.

The cause? The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, which filled the planet’s stratosphere with aerosols that reflected sunlight away from the Earth and actually led to a slight sea level fall in ensuing years as the ocean temporarily cooled.

“What we’ve shown is that sea level acceleration is real, and it continues to be going on, it’s ongoing, and we understand why you don’t see it in the short satellite record,” said Fasullo, who conducted the research along with scientists from the University of Colorado in Bolder and Old Dominion University.

The study was performed using a suite of 40 climate change models to determine how the Pinatubo eruption affected seas and the global distribution of water. The scientists estimate as a result that sea level not only fell between 5 and 7 millimeters due to a major ocean cooling event in the eruption’s wake, but then experienced a rebound, or bounce back, of the same magnitude once the influence of the eruption had passed.

This had a major effect on what the satellite record of sea level looks like, because the bounce-back occurred earlier in the record and made the sea level rise then appear extra fast. So the researchers conclude that while no official acceleration trend can be seen in the satellite record now, that’s an artificial consequence of Pinatubo and should be gone over time — barring another Pinatubo-like event.

“Our initial impression of sea level rise was not only influenced by climate change and the rate of change, but the response and the recovery from the eruption itself,” says Fasullo. “Those effects largely have ebbed by now, and once we get a few more years into the altimeter record, we should see a clear acceleration. That’s really the punchline of the article.”

In fact, the researchers also removed the sea level effect of Pinatubo, and found that when they did so they could see sea level rise acceleration happening already.

Another study last year, using a different record of sea level rise — global tide gauges — in addition to satellite data, also found that sea level rise has accelerated in the last 15 years.

One sea level rise expert who was not involved in the new study, Robert Kopp of Rutgers University, praised the work in response to a query from the Post.

The study, Kopp explained by email, found that the Pinatubo eruption would have caused seas to fall “just before the start of the altimetry record, the recovery from which was spread out of the remainder of the 1990s and therefore masked some of the acceleration that would otherwise have been seen in the tide-gauge record between the 1990s and the 2000s. This makes strong physical sense.”

It also aligns better with actual observations from Greenland and Antarctica. Scientists have shown that both of the Earth’s major ice sheets have seen an accelerating rate of ice loss in recent years, which ought to help drive an accelerating rate of sea level as well.

The key question then becomes just how fast the annual rate of sea level rise can actually increase. In one thought experiment recently, former NASA climate scientist James Hansen calculated the consequences if the “doubling time” for ice loss is as fast as 10 years — finding dramatic sea level increases as a result.

“Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield sea level rise of several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years,” Hansen’s study concluded. However, it is far from clear at this point that ice loss is actually increasing this rapidly.

So far, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change officially estimates that the high-end sea-level rise projection for 2100 is lower than some of these scenarios, closer to about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by that year. But that has recently been challenged by new work estimating that Antarctica alone could add this much to global sea levels by 2100 if high levels of human greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Fasullo says that debate — over precisely how fast acceleration happens, or where that leaves us in 2100 — remains unresolved. For now, he says, at least it’s pretty clear that the acceleration is actually happening as expected.

“Accelerated sea level rise is real, and it’s ongoing, and it’s not something we should doubt based on the altimeter record,” said Fasullo.

[giovonni]

Don't have remind anyone that lives along the U.S. coastal waters ...

Via - Stephan A. Schwartz - Trends That Will Affect Your Future

In Norfolk, climate change means dealing with rising water.
The Dutch are there to help. (http://www.pri.org/stories/2016-06-20/us-city-learning-dutch-living-water-approach)

Also ...

What it might take to protect the world's biggest
naval base from rising seas
(What it might take to protect the world's biggest naval base from rising seas)

[Buzzie]

I thought Obama was supposed to stop the sea level from rising. What happened?

[Fellow Aspirant]

I think people were confusing him with that Canute fella. ;)

B.

[Atlas]

I thought Obama was supposed to stop the sea level from rising. What happened?
Obama Promises The World
I0tuAJkbUWU

[Althena]

Ice age coming, now seas are rising, global warming is a real, global warming is a hoax, which one is it then?

[eagle0027]

Not buying this one....i have lived on the water for a few years Pacific west coast and have been around it in general for many years......no change

[TargeT]

Ice age coming, now seas are rising, global warming is a real, global warming is a hoax, which one is it then?

global warming is a hoax, the earth is going through its normal cyclic patterns and we are headed into a 35 year (best guess) "cooling" period due to the solar minimum that we are currently transitioning into.


I live on a tiny island in the ocean, we would INSTANTLY notice a difference on our beaches......

there's been no difference.

[Atlas]

the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change officially estimates that the high-end sea-level rise projection for 2100 is lower than some of these scenarios, closer to about 1 meter (3.3 feet) by that year. But that has recently been challenged by new work estimating that Antarctica alone could add this much to global sea levels by 2100 if high levels of human greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Fasullo says that debate — over precisely how fast acceleration happens, or where that leaves us in 2100 — remains unresolved.
Current and projected future landmass of the Tangier Islands, based on the Army Corps of Engineers’ mid-range sea level rise scenario of approximately three feet by 2113:

http://kuangkeng.github.io/pri-projects/images/tangier-land-loss.gif
Source: Climate Change and the Evolution and Fate of the Tangier Islands of Chesapeake Bay, USA (http://www.nature.com/articles/srep17890)

[bluestflame]

what if , it's the ocean floor that is rising ....

[Michelle Marie]

Ice age coming, now seas are rising, global warming is a real, global warming is a hoax, which one is it then?

Sounds to me that human minds don't fully grasp Universal Alchemy.

Void of agendas and equipped with Universal Mind attunement, maybe a broader perspective could be apprehended.

Maybe we could help co-create something ideal and purposeful with our expanded/awakened awareness.

Just saying...

[Michelle Marie]

what if , it's the ocean floor that is rising ....

Love your picture, bluestflame!

I found more info on: https://theearthexpanded.wordpress.com

Interesting...

[WhiteLove]

There is some kind of acceleration taking place now, I can strongly feel it. Lately I've had a very strong de ja vu type experience which I really think was pre-life agreed upon and set in my destiny, I feel like I am speeding up towards my final destiny and fractions of my lost memory are bit by bit coming back. I think we are in for some kind of pretty overwhelming change, some kind of accelerating energy/frequency upgrade that is starting to become more and more noticable. Something is going on. Lately I have had several visualization and meditation procedures crystallizing into manifestation in a much more accelerated way, meaning that it now can take only 1 week between visualization/meditation/praying and manifestation, I'm not used to that. Usually it took half a year or so. I think we will soon discover life beyond our earth, I think that is part of it and then the consciousness will start to rise really quickly... I think something very beautiful is coming around the corner!

The value of oil has dropped by -70% during the last 8.5 years, we are moving into a new era of energy. Once the Oil and all of its links collapse, there is going to be enough room for some substantial amounts of positive change. Maybe the banks will collapse on a global scale, how about that. (high octane speculation of course)

[Beany]

I thought Obama was supposed to stop the sea level from rising. What happened?

:ROFL:
This really made me laugh! :)

[Pam]

Not buying this one....i have lived on the water for a few years Pacific west coast and have been around it in general for many years......no change


I was about to write the same thing eagle0027. I live about 200 feet from the Pacific coast in Washington state and have yet to see any changes here.

[Hervé]

Colder right now than throughout almost all of history (https://iceagenow.info/colder-right-now-throughout-almost-history/)

By Robert (https://iceagenow.info/author/xilef/) August 11, 2016 (https://iceagenow.info/colder-right-now-throughout-almost-history/)


And yet, our leaders keep on harping about global warming


https://iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Temperature-and-CO2-thru-time.gif (http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html)
Graph from “Climate and the Carboniferous Period” http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html


And CO2 levels were higher than today throughout almost all of history.

When you look at the above chart, you will see almost no correlation between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature.


“The Late Carboniferous to Early Permian (315 mya — 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ).

“Compared to former geologic times,our present atmosphere,like the Late Carboniferous atmosphere, is CO2- impoverished!”Thanks to Guy (Terra Hertz) for this link

“There’s simply no way for AGW and this chart to both be true,” says Guy. “Anyone who says they can’t see the fundamental incompatibility is either lying or retarded.”

====================================================

As for "sea level," see this post here: Rising Sea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis 2015 (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?87135-Rising-Sea-Level-and-the-Coming-Coastal-Crisis-2015&p=1026191&viewfull=1#post1026191) where, depending on one's choice for a reference frame, one could as well scream this kind of Doom-&-Gloom sort of headlines:


"Holy sh**! WHERE did all the Water GO!?"



http://www.sott.net/image/s14/286270/full/crete_quakes_image_1_1024x575.jpg
© Vasiliki Mouslopoulou, GFZ Scientists look for remnants of paleo shorelines on western Crete. Red and blue arrows indicate paleo shorelines formed during the last 2,000 years and are today elevated up to 8 meters (26 feet).

... because land masses do subside (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?91471-San-Andreas-Ups-Downs&p=1076369&viewfull=1#post1076369) or crop up (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_uplift) mostly due to geotectonics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_subsidence) but also from man-made (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groundwater-related_subsidence) interferences: Sinking Grounds... Not Rising Waters (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?91560-Sinking-Grounds...-Not-Rising-Waters.&p=1077680&viewfull=1#post1077680).

I might as well repost this:

=========================================

Hervé (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/member.php?4925-Herv--) 29th November 2015 21:33 Link to Post #16 (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?87135-Rising-Sea-Level-and-the-Coming-Coastal-Crisis-2015&p=1024624&viewfull=1#post1024624)

http://projectavalon.net/forum4/images/icons/icon1.png Re: Rising Sea Level and the Coming Coastal Crisis 2015

Posted by ks4ever (here) (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?p=1024464#post1024464)
[...]
... don't believe a lot of claims that have been stated in the public domain. "Ocean Levels are not Constant and never have been." ... especially CEOs of companies selling consulting services (http://www.lapalma-tsunami.com/notes.html), e.g.:


As the Founder of the Rising Seas Group, he works with businesses, government agencies, and communities helping them understand the financial risks of sea level rise.The one thing these scaremongers omit to specify is the "subsidence (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subsidence)" phenomenon.

Sea level is sea level and if some grounds show subsidence whereas others show uplifts (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_uplift) for the same period... time to scratch one's head!

If there actually were sea level rises, it would be uniform across the globe. So, how come I don't see the same amount of sea rise on the coast I live nearby?

Simple: sea level is sea level and therefore, the islands used as text-book case for sea level rise are actually sinking! The similarity of the end results is what is played on to confuse people on the "global warming" political agenda.

In that same vein, there is also a confusion that's being kept alive for political and "intelligence" reasons and that's the use of the term "climate change" instead of the more accurate term of "weather change"... see? Because "weather" is very controllable whereas "climate" leaves one with the impression one cannot do anything about it because it's too "big" and "natural."
======================================================

Finally, there is a problem I see with extricating millimetres/year sea level rise out of an outrageous number of averages:


Wave amplitudes - storm or dead calm?
Atmospheric pressure -high or low pressure above the ocean area measured?
Tides - low or high?
Earth rotation speed - constant? Accelerating? Slowing down? ? Fluctuating? (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?76790-How-Come-Gravity-Doesn-t-Give-A-Hoot-About-Weight&p=902661&viewfull=1#post902661)
Satellite altitude with respect to what reference point? Quasar calibrated? Subsiding/uplifting continental landmark?
Orbit fluctuations from asteroid fly-bys?
Etc...

... because if they can invoke a volcanic eruption for an apparent deceleration, why not invoke meteorite showers for their computed acceleration rate?

Anyway, hopefully one gets the idea...

[TargeT]

Not buying this one....i have lived on the water for a few years Pacific west coast and have been around it in general for many years......no change


I was about to write the same thing eagle0027. I live about 200 feet from the Pacific coast in Washington state and have yet to see any changes here.

one of the bars I frequent is about 10 feet from the ocean... I'm there probably 3+ days a week (it's where my tours start from for my company).

http://media-cdn.tripadvisor.com/media/photo-s/06/b1/9a/d3/rhythms-at-rainbow-beach.jpg

as you can see there's not much beach to loose & even a little bit of ocean level change would be noticed very quickly as we have many endangered turtle nesting areas (the beaches) which are studied full time by marine biologists at the local college.

[KiwiElf]

My feeling about this has been one of simple logic; if the "sea" were rising, surely we would notice a consistent rise globally. But we're not.

One small group of Pacific Islands is even attempting to blame (& sue) Australia and New Zealand for "global warming" & the fact that the sea is rising (on them - "verified & substantiated") and they will soon have to relocate. I would theorise that perhaps it's their islands that are sinking?? :confused:

(And yeah, I live at a coastal city - it hasn't changed (rising sea level) since I can remember, nor has Auckland (where I used to live).

Why would it be rising in some places and not others when it's all connected (one ocean?)

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/may/10/five-pacific-islands-lost-rising-seas-climate-change

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/02/world/The-Marshall-Islands-Are-Disappearing.html?_r=0

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/photos/6-island-nations-threatened-by-climate-change/rising-anxiety

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/islands-threatened-by-climate-change-2012-10?r=US&IR=T#kiribati-1

[Hervé]

My feeling about this has been one of simple logic; if the "sea" were rising, surely we would notice a consistent rise globally. But we're not.

One small group of Pacific Islands is even attempting to blame (& sue) Australia and New Zealand for "global warming" & the fact that the sea is rising (on them - "verified & substantiated") and they will soon have to relocate. I would theorise that perhaps it's their island that is sinking?? :confused:

(And yeah, I live at a coastal city - it hasn't changed (rising sea level) since I can remember, nor has Auckland (where I used to live).

Why would it be rising in some places and not others when it's all connected (one ocean?)

Hi Kiwi... thanks for a concise summary of my (TL;DR)* post # 16 (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?92471-Seas-aren--t-just-rising-the-rise-is-accelerating&p=1088866&viewfull=1#post1088866)... :p

* (TL;DR) = Too Long; Didn't Read

[KiwiElf]

LOL yeah, you got me Hervé - :ROFL:- I'm "rising" my way upward (Backward) :p

[KiwiElf]

The "greenies" tried a similar doom & gloom in NZ a few years back as "proof", where in combination with a rare full Moon & a King Tide, sea water (for ONE DAY) rose higher than normal levels, sending all the real-estate agents - (who were trying to sell over-priced beach properties) - into a frenzy ;)

[amor]

Remember the pyramids and structures around Cuba found to have seemingly gently sunk into the waters? There are underground gasses as well as an underground ocean; all sorts of things swelling and shrinking and moving far underground which could account for land subsideance.

[Arpheus]

I stopped reading at the part that said according to Nasa LOL who the hell trust any info coming from nasa that frequents this website?Anything that comes from nasa is a lie gimme a break heh!

[TargeT]

N.a.s.a.
e___t_n
v___r_s
e__.a_w
r___i_e
____t_r

I think "climate change" (modern)"feminism" and "Black lives matter" are the three major INJECTED social destabilizing / control movements of our time.... (though the latter two are minor and far more divide and conquer oriented when compared to the first)


we are certainly in an "info war"... and we seem to be winning.

[KiwiElf]

The April earthquake in Japan is good evidence of this; that particular land mass was displaced laterally and upwardly by several meters. Any landmass or group of islands in the ring of fire are going to be subjected to rising and falling over a period of time. It's not climate change or global warming,.. just good ol' "nature". ;)

Amor brings up a very relevent point about ancient rising and falling of landmasses under water, which extends even further.

If anyone remembers a great documentary, The Mystery of the Sphinx from 1993, narrated by Charlton Heston and featuring Richard Hoagland, John Anthony-West theorised (and virtually proved) - much to the disdain of the general geologic scientific community and historical dogma - that the whole area of Giza (The pyramids and Sphinx), had at some stage, been under water.

(Also a brilliant tie-in to the Sphinx, Atlantis and the Face on Cydonia, Mars by Hoagland - Who inspired the Egyptians in the first place? - The sinking of Atlantis & the Hoagland Mars tie-in bit starts around 1:12:00 )



Attached below for those who haven't seen it.

SbUsGnMUH2Y

[Lifebringer]

Here comes the ice-age?

[Lifebringer]

No hoax. Simple science of evaporation and temp and pole shifting. More fresh water melting in the oceans, slows the current belt and as the oceans heat up the evaporation to the clouds presents more heavier rain fall. The winds carry it to a more suitable drop off nation and flooding begins. Then winter hits and the moisture now turns to heavier snowfalls that fall longer and increase in the colder regions thereby expanding lower into the lower states, suppressing the growing season on both sides with early longer winters and early harvest to possibly only one crop reaping, if we're lucky before rapid weather changes of drought or freeze are so close, you can't grow, unless it's inside greenhouse and co-opting where families share whatever they grow to maintain a proper intake of vitamins. But yes, the rapid changes in night and day temps can also destroy crops by confusing them of season. Ask any farmer, why he dreads that groundhog seeing it's shadow. Late crops, short harvest season. With food scarcity, this could become a problem if as I said, co-ops of community crops grown inside green houses with their own supply of bees/wildflowers to pollinate and of course, the proper temperature for bees, butterflies and fruit flies.

[Lifebringer]

The value of oil has dropped by -70% during the last 8.5 years, we are moving into a new era of energy. Once the Oil and all of its links collapse, there is going to be enough room for some substantial amounts of positive change. Maybe the banks will collapse on a global scale, how about that. (high octane speculation of course)

It's been 7.5 years. Gas prices bordered 3.80 per gallon, in the mid-Atlantic regions 2008. After Dems put a law on speculation of oil prices, the prices on WS started to drop. It's now 1.80 per gallon here, so you see how long we got "bilked by bush/Shub."

[TargeT]

No hoax. Simple science of evaporation and temp and pole shifting.
I think the sun is MUCH MORE influential. "green house gasses" seem to have nothing to do with it since c02 used to be MUCH more prevalent earlier in history with no equatable rise in average temperatures.



It's been 7.5 years. Gas prices bordered 3.80 per gallon, in the mid-Atlantic regions 2008. After Dems put a law on speculation of oil prices, the prices on WS started to drop. It's now 1.80 per gallon here, so you see how long we got "bilked by bush/Shub."

I HIGHLY doubt that is why oil prices went down...HIGHLY.


Saudi Arabia, the largest OPEC exporter, would have to be part of any plan to change the OPEC strategy of letting the market set prices. That strategy, master-minded by Saudi, was adopted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in November 2014. The policy preceded another big downdraft in prices.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/10/saudi-arabia-iran-pump-at-high-levels-as-us-producers-cut-back.html

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iD3FljMIW7pg/v2/-1x-1.png

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/12/RussiaOilProduction2_0.png

http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Saudi-Arabia.png


Why The Russian Economy Rises and Falls With Oil
Russia is a major player in oil and gas production worldwide. It is the second largest producer of natural gas and the third largest producer of oil, sitting on 80 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and a staggering 1688 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves—the largest natural gas reserves in the world. Given the size of Russia’s oil and gas assets and its position in world production, there is little doubt that oil and gas prices have a large impact on its economy. In this article, we will analyze the impact of oil prices, both high and low, on the Russian economy.

The Hydrocarbon Empire

In recent years, oil and gas revenues have made up nearly half of Russia’s national budget.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/032515/why-russian-economy-rises-and-falls-oil.asp#ixzz4H9CjAvpc

I see a strong case for economic warfare against russia.. using OPEC and US production to drown the market out.

[Bob]

I agree completely - VWD !


I think the sun is MUCH MORE influential. "green house gasses" seem to have nothing to do with it since c02 used to be MUCH more prevalent earlier in history with no equatable rise in average temperatures.

[Atlas]

Ice age coming, now seas are rising, global warming is a real, global warming is a hoax, which one is it then?

Here comes the ice-age?
New Ice Age Approaching
1Mxvr72pp2Q

[Hervé]

Ice age it is:

Irregular heartbeat of the Sun driven by double dynamo (https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/news-archive/259-news-2015/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo)

Published on Thursday, 09 July 2015 08:17
Last Updated on Thursday, 09 July 2015 12:41

Date: July 9, 2015Source: Royal Astronomical Society (RAS)Summary:
A new model of the Sun's solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun's 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645.


https://www.ras.org.uk/images/stories/press/NAM_2015/Thursday9July/Zharkova_small.jpg (https://www.ras.org.uk/images/stories/press/NAM_2015/Thursday9July/Zharkova_small.jpg)
Montage of images of solar activity between August 1991 and September 2001. Credit: Yohkoh/ISAS/Lockheed-Martin/NAOJ/U. Tokyo/NASA. Click for a full-size image




A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting (http://nam2015.org) in Llandudno.



It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle) lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.

Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory (http://wso.stanford.edu/) in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.

Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum)’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

https://www.ras.org.uk/news-and-press/2680-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo


See also this post (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?50036-The-Arctic-is-melting-the-Antarctic-is-freezing.-What-does-this-mean&p=1089211&viewfull=1#post1089211) (<---)

7sh_nlz43Pc

[Bob]

Absolutely Hervé , very well done !! Thank you - after reading some of the absolute nonsense appearing elsewhere (sigh) with some absolutely ludicrous threads, this is refreshing - thanks..

[giovonni]

Whatever is causing it - Get ready for the change ...

As i was told intuitively before moving out West ...
Best to dress/prepare for both hot and cold.

Gio

[Hervé]

This point from post # 32 (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?92471-Seas-aren--t-just-rising-the-rise-is-accelerating&p=1089280&viewfull=1#post1089280) cannot be overemphasized:


... the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.

That's real science!

Because their theoretical model, derived from facts, can predict other data - not yet observed - with a 97% accuracy... mind blowing!

[Camilo]

Native Alaskan Village Forced to Move due to Climate Change

http://www.unknowncountry.com/news/n...climate-change

The erosion of the shoreline of Alaska's Sarichef Island from rising sea levels has prompted the residents of the island's village of Shishmaref to decide to relocate, before their traditional island home is overcome by the sea.

Home to 650 Inupiat Inuit, Sarichef Island lies in the Chukchi Sea, just north of the Bering Strait, and like the rest of Alaska, is warming twice as fast as the contiguous states. Shishmaref is one of 31 Alaskan villages that are in danger from erosion and flooding, according to the US Government Accountability Office.

It is estimated that the relocation of Shishmaref could cost upwards of $180 million, but like many of the villages under threat, they may not qualify for the Department of Housing and Urban Development's Community Development Block Grant program, due to a lack of incorporation in their governing structures. The Department of the Interior has allocated $8 million for all communities that plan to relocate, although this is to be spread amongst the 12 villages that have already planned to move.

The residents of Shishmaref, as with other villages, are concerned over the potential impact the move may make on their traditional lifestyles. Regardless, the effect of rising ocean levels is dramatic, with the island having "lost about 100 feet" since 1997, according to resident Esau Sinnock: "In the past 15 years, we had to move 13 houses – including my dear grandma Edna's house – from one end of the island to the other because of this loss of land. Within the next two decades, the whole island will erode away completely." The steady loss of surface ice has also already impacted the islander's ability to hunt and fish, their primary source of food.

The United Nations Institute for Environment and Human Security and the International Organization for Migration estimates that climate change could displace as many as 200 million people worldwide by the middle of the century, although the residents of regions as far apart as Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, and villages in the Solomon Islands, are already facing this stark reality.

[Hervé]

The erosion of the shoreline of Alaska's Sarichef Island from rising sea levels

Whoever wrote that article is miscomprehending what's happening to that island: coastal EROSION (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erosion)!

It's shrinking, it's not being flooded!

Because, if it had anything to do with rising sea levels, the island would just be submerged with little erosion... yet, the highest elevation of the island is still 6 meters above sea level... go figure!

[TargeT]

The erosion of the shoreline of Alaska's Sarichef Island from rising sea levels

Whoever wrote that article is miscomprehending what's happening to that island: coastal EROSION (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erosion)!

It's shrinking, it's not being flooded!

Because, if it had anything to do with rising sea levels, the island would just be submerged with little erosion... yet, the highest elevation of the island is still 6 meters above sea level... go figure!

AND...



The erosion of the shoreline of Alaska's Sarichef Island from rising sea levels has prompted the residents of the island's village of Shishmaref to decide to relocate, before their traditional island home is overcome by the sea.
.

like a huge AND No alaskan natives had "traditional homes"... ANYWHERE... W E forced them to "pick an address" so they could receive federal handouts ("hush" money?)... "traditionally" all native Alaskans were nomadic with seasonal fishing camps on the ocean and the tundra during the summer for hunting caribou etc..

WE forced them into those villages, they were NEVER intended to be long term locations as they were just seasonal fishing camps... It's one of the many examples of how government fails at everything, no matter what the original intentions were.

[Hervé]

So what’s new? Sea levels have been rising for 10,000 years (https://iceagenow.info/whats-new-sea-levels-rising-10000-years/)

By Robert (https://iceagenow.info/author/xilef/) Felix September 4, 2016 (https://iceagenow.info/whats-new-sea-levels-rising-10000-years/)


This talk of unprecedented sea-level rise is complete nonsense.

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Today’s sea-level rise is BELOW normal

During the last ice age almost all of Canada, along with parts of Europe and Asia, were buried beneath one to two miles of ice. At the same time, sea levels stood 350 to 400 feet lower than today.

Sea levels were so low that the entire continental shelf, at least in eastern North America, was above water. Many states on the eastern seaboard were twice as big as today. New Jersey’s shoreline, for example, stood 60 to 100 miles east of its present location.

Same in the west.

The land between Alaska and Asia rose out of the sea like a bridge (or rather, the sea dropped away from the land), and the Bering Strait, which today is only 18 stories deep at its deepest point, was above water. Our ancestors could have walked to Siberia. (The word bridge is misleading, because the land connection between Alaska and Siberia was almost as wide as Alaska itself.)

Why were sea levels so low? Because that’s where the water came from to create those huge ice sheets. Literally millions of cubic miles of water had turned to ice.

Then, about 10,000 years ago, the ice began to melt and sea levels began to rise.

Here’s a sea-level graph from Nobel Laureate Ivar Giaever (http://projectavalon.net/forum4/showthread.php?50036-The-Arctic-is-melting-the-Antarctic-is-freezing.-What-does-this-mean&p=998758&viewfull=1#post998758).


https://iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Holocene_Sea_Level.png (https://iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Holocene_Sea_Level.png)

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Rising sea levels have been the norm
If you run the numbers (see below), you’ll find that sea levels have been rising an average of .42 to .48 inches (just under half-an-inch) per year for the past 10,000 years. Rising sea levels have been the norm, in other words, for 10,000 years.

And that brings us to today. What are sea levels doing right now?

Sea levels now rising slower than normal
According to NASA, sea levels are rising 3.24 mm (http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/) (about 1/8th of an inch) per year. That’s about the thickness of two nickels stacked on top of each other. Not the diameter of the nickels, but the thickness, In other words, sea levels are rising slower than normal.

Sea levels declined in 2010 and 2011
That doesn’t even take into account the fact that sea levels declined in both 2010 (https://iceagenow.info/2011/08/sea-levels-dropped-2010/)and 2011 (https://iceagenow.info/2011/09/sea-level-continues-inexorable-decline/).

Yes, no matter how assiduously the media tries to ignore it, sea levels actually declined in both of those years.

Where is the water going?

It’s being locked up on land as snow and ice. That’s how ice ages begin.

If we keep getting record snowfall as we have during the past few years, sea levels will begin falling and won’t begin rising again until the end of the next ice age.

This talk of unprecedented rising sea levels and catastrophic global warming is complete nonsense. It is just simply not true.
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It’s not rocket science. Try it yourself. Multiply 400 by 12 and you get 4,800. That’s how many inches in 400 feet (how far sea levels have risen in the past 10,000 years). Now divide 4,800 by 10,000, and you get .48, just under ½ inch.

Just under half-an-inch. That’s how much sea levels have been rising on average per year for the past 10,000 years.

Today, sea levels are rising only 1/8 of an inch per year, LESS than normal.

And we’re supposed to throw billions, if not trillions, of dollars at it? We’re supposed to destroy our economies over a non-issue?
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Robert Felix is author of Not by Fire but by Ice, in which he maintains that the next ice age could begin any day.

See www.iceagenow.info (https://iceagenow.info)